BludgerTrack leadership trends

A small measure of historical perspective for this week’s leadership polling, on which Scott Morrison lost his lead as preferred prime minister from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

It’s not exactly news that I’ve got BludgerTrack going to the extent of running leadership trends, which I launched about a month ago, but under the circumstances (and for the want of much else to blog about, which I’ll get to shortly) I thought it worth drawing attention to again. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided new sets of numbers this week, and while some have questioned the value of polling in high summer while holidays are being had and fires are being fought, they were interesting in their consistency: Newspoll recorded a 19% drop in Scott Morrison’s net approval while Essential had it at 14%, and both found Anthony Albanese opening slight leads on preferred prime minister.

All of this comes through loud and clear in the trends you can see on the sidebar (or in closer detail at the link below). Morrison’s post-election bounce was already coming off before the fires, but the trend has now become a freefall he must hope will reverse in fairly short order. By my reckoning, out of 673 preferred prime minister results published by Newspoll as far back as 1987, the incumbent has led in 519 (77.2%) and the Opposition Leader in 140 (20.8%), with thirteen (1.9%) being tied. However, this hasn’t offered much of a guide for the leaders’ future prospects. Malcolm Turnbull had an unblemished record, as did Kevin Rudd in his first tenure (Tony Abbott took the lead in the first two polls before the 2013 election), while John Howard trailed in early 2001 and for much of the second half of his first term, as did Paul Keating more often than not before the 1993 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,599 comments on “BludgerTrack leadership trends”

Comments Page 45 of 52
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  1. Peter Dutton’s view on climate change has changed due to the current disasters. He is now firmly in favor of it.It is increasing his chances for replacing Scrott and it dents Josh’s vanity project aka Teh Surplus.

  2. GG

    It worries me that Robert’s philosophy of life relies on personal profit. I’m wondering what profit he may be getting (swindling?) out of his position. Don’t trust him.

  3. Interview with Rick Wilson. Among many other things he says he had been doing polling and many Democrats said they thought after Trump had been impeached they thought that was it, he was gone from office. An indication of just how disengaged ‘low information’ voters are, even those rusted onto a political party.

    (interview starts at the 7m mark)

    https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101875432/republican-strategist-rick-wilsons-plot-to-save-america-from-trump

  4. So Christensen paid back $2K, which he was not entitled to. And he only paid it back after being investigated and forced to.
    https://www.theguardian.com/global/2020/jan/20/george-christensen-pays-back-2100-after-audit-finds-he-misused-travel-expenses

    They hounded Peter Slipper out of parliament for less than half of that. There was a time when taking your employer’s money without correct authorisation might get you sacked, or charged with theft. Even in parliament. But standards have fallen pretty low in Canberra in the current era.

    And I assume in light of this precedent that every Centrelink recipient who gets overpaid is given a grace period to repay without penalty?

  5. lizzie @ #2202 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 9:32 am

    GG

    It worries me that Robert’s philosophy of life relies on personal profit. I’m wondering what profit he may be getting (swindling?) out of his position. Don’t trust him.

    That’s one part. But, the Government’s issue going forward will be that the services required of Centrelink in this crisis have been systematically excluded from the suite of services they provide. So, dissatisfaction, frustration and anger is bound to increase over the coming months.

  6. https://www.smh.com.au/national/your-government-does-not-want-corruption-investigated-20200119-p53son.html

    If the sports grants made under McKenzie’s leadership were referred to the CIC in the form now proposed by Porter, the CIC, in the absence of any evidence of a criminal offence, would have no jurisdiction to investigate those grants. No public hearing would take place, and no public report or knowledge of the events examined would become public unless a prosecution was launched.

    The case for an effective national integrity commission grows stronger by the day. This sports rort scratches the surface of a much wider corruption risk in our government and public sector. A national commission with a broad jurisdiction and strong investigative powers, including public hearings, is needed to investigate allegations and expose corruption to the public.

    The existing state anti-corruption commissions are all much stronger than the proposed CIC. Why propose the nation’s weakest watchdog? Why the delay? What does the government have to hide?

    Stephen Charles, QC, a former judge of the Victorian Court of Appeal, is a board member of the Centre for Public Integrity.

  7. zoomster
    Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 9:17 am
    Comment #2095

    KayJay

    The ads are very weird – they promote a service which no one I know of used Trivago for.

    I “Googled” to find a little info regarding the older lady. The ads for Trivago are loved/hated and commented on by many.

    Watching commercial TV is an art form which must be mastered. The object should be to watch two programs alternately. While one is displaying a series of ads one should switch to program two until the ad break and so on.

    When the tennis is on one channel, cricket on another and movie “Unforgiven” (last night) one can happily coast along quite comfortably.

    The difficulty, for me, is the requirement for subtitles to display on other than sport. Having a “Kindle” reader handy usually fills in any gaps.

    Toodles. 😎☕

  8. “And I assume in light of this precedent that every Centrelink recipient who gets overpaid is given a grace period to repay without penalty?”

    Bwa-hahahaha…not in the warped and twisted reality that is the LNP. Only LNP pollies get that benefit.

  9. Huh! Watch this space.

    @Triplejay58
    30m

    Malcolm Turnbull and Mitch Fifield had a huge hissy fit when Emma Alberici wrote the facts about the LNP’s corporate tax “policy”. Emma was made to pay.

    What will happen to Paul Kennedy as a result of exposing Michaelia Cash and the LNP as liars on national television. #auspol

  10. GG

    This will be sheeted back to Stuart Robert whose tenure as minister has been about reducing costs by digitalization, reducing contact visits with staff, using a phone service and cracking down on entitlements.

    __________________________________

    It started long before that. Robert has just carried. Tudge is one of the chief architects but the rot really started the day Abbott became PM and the biggest leaner in Parliament at the time lectured all of us about ‘lifters’ and ‘leaners’.

  11. “It’s Like a Foreign Language”: Donald Trump’s Encounter With the Constitution Did Not Go Well

    While being filmed for a documentary, the president stumbled through his chosen passage, taking his frustration out on everyone around him, Philip Rucker and Carol Leonnig write in A Very Stable Genius.

    Whatever the reason for Trump’s discomfort with the reading, several watching agreed on this much: He behaved like a brooding child, short-tempered, brittle, and quick to blame mystery distractions for the mistakes. “I didn’t expect this, but I felt sorry for him,” another witness said. “

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/01/donald-trump-disastrous-encounter-with-the-constitution-very-stable-genius

  12. Shimon ProkupeczVerified account@ShimonPro
    10m10 minutes ago
    McConnell’s office has sent the organizing resolution to Senate GOP offices. The four page document includes arguments for 24 hours, split into two days a piece. It also says any witnesses must be deposed first.

  13. Re GG @9:46. I don’t think that Morrison experiences a few of those, certainly not humility or remorse. Maybe not empathy. Perhaps the relevant squares are also indigestion.

  14. Shimon ProkupeczVerified account@ShimonPro
    3m3 minutes ago
    witnesses must be deposed first – but before any witnesses are deposed, the Senate will first vote on motions to subpoena witnesses or documents.

    Sooo, McConnell doesn’t want them to be heard, they won’t be heard.

  15. Manu RajuVerified account@mkraju
    6m6 minutes ago
    Also, as expected, there will be a debate of up to four hours on the question of “whether it shall be in order to consider and debate under the impeachment rules any motion to subpoena witnesses and documents.” The Senate will then vote on whether to subpoena any witnesses.

  16. lizzie @ #2202 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 9:32 am

    GG

    It worries me that Robert’s philosophy of life relies on personal profit. I’m wondering what profit he may be getting (swindling?) out of his position. Don’t trust him.

    You don’t mean this Stuart Robert do you? Perish the thought lizzie.

    The assistant treasurer Stuart Robert says he has repaid the almost $38,000 he accumulated in taxpayer-funded home internet bills.

    It’s all so easy. Try it on, and just pay it back if you get caught. Nothing to lose; everything to gain. Robbers and thieves the lot.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/12/stuart-robert-repays-nearly-38000-for-home-internet-bills

  17. Even the bastards think Scott’s a bastard.

    Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    ·
    7h
    Michael Keenan said Scott Morrison is an “absolute arsehole”. And he is absolutely correct. #auspol

    Trish Corry
    @Trish_Corry
    ·
    4m
    Wow! And THAT is coming from a Minister (Keenan) who pulled the low act of cutting disaster relief funding as fires tore through the Blue mountains in 2013.

  18. Manu RajuVerified account@mkraju
    12m12 minutes ago
    No witness names are specified.

    That vote will occur after the 24 hours of questioning on each side, and the 16 hours of questioning by senators.

    As I understnand it, Senator questions must be put in writing and are read out by Roberts.

  19. Does Labor have a detailed policy re a federal ICAC?

    What might a National Integrity Commission look like?

    April 2018:
    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2019/April/National_integrity_commission

    However, there is disagreement on the particular model to be adopted and differences in the published costings. In light of the funding in the 2019–20 Budget for a Commonwealth Integrity Commission (CIC), this FlagPost provides a brief overview of the different models.
    :::
    The creation of an NIC is a long-standing policy of the Greens. In August 2009, the then leader of the Greens, Senator Bob Brown, put forward a motion calling on the Rudd Government to consider the establishment of an NIC. It was not passed, with Labor and Coalition senators voting against it. The Greens have since introduced Bills to establish an NIC in 2010, 2012, 2013 (restored to the notice paper in 2016), 2017 and 2018.
    :::
    For many years, Labor remained open to considering an NIC, but said that the case had not yet been made to establish one. Then in January 2018, Labor announced it would establish an NIC, with legislation to be introduced within 12 months of being elected to government.

    Although Labor has not set out its model in detail, it has stated that it will be based on seven principles. These include that the NIC would:
    :::
    The Senate inquiry also considered evidence on the appropriate role of the proposed NIC in making findings of corrupt conduct. The Greens and McGowan Bills appear to allow the NIC broad discretion to make reports (including findings and recommendations) about corruption issues (in line with ACLEI’s current powers). Under the Government’s model, the PSID ‘will not make findings of corruption at large’. This approach is intended to avoid what the Government considers to be a ‘key flaw’ of various state agencies—that ‘findings of corruption can be made at large without having to follow fundamental justice processes’. Labor’s proposed NIC appears to fall somewhere in between: it ‘will only be empowered to make findings of fact’, with ‘findings that could constitute criminal conduct’ to be referred to the AFP or the CDPP.

    The Greens and McGowan Bills would each establish a Whistleblower Protection Commissioner within the NIC, the functions of which would include receiving and investigating ‘disclosures of wrongdoing’ and providing ‘advice, assistance, guidance and support to persons and agencies who disclose wrongdoing’. The Government and Labor proposals are silent on this aspect, though Labor has separately committed to establishing a Whistleblowing Protection Authority.

    All of the proposals include broader preventative and educative functions for the NIC/CIC. However, the lack of detail on this aspect in the Government and Labor proposals makes it difficult to draw any meaningful comparisons on the scope of those functions.

  20. Senior Labor figures including Anthony Albanese argued against anti-corruption watchdog

    August 2019: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/senior-labor-figures-including-anthony-albanese-argued-against-anti-corruption-watchdog-20190801-p52d15.html

    Three of Labor’s most senior figures including Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese argued against a new federal anti-corruption watchdog because some feared it would “make it very hard to govern”.

    In revelations that could blunt Labor’s criticism of Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s proposal to tackle corruption in Canberra, former leader Bill Shorten faced fierce internal opposition during debates over the policy, including from his tight-knit leadership group members Penny Wong and Tony Burke.

  21. lizzie @ #2190 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 6:21 am

    “They want me to provide bank account details from when I last received a government assistance payment over 25 years ago,” she said.

    Every example I am reading suggests that we have finally entered the world of Catch 22.
    Shorten explained this morning that whenever an NDIS customer fails to spend their annual grant because of lack of services, the following year they receive a smaller grant because they have ‘proved’ they don’t need it.

    How shall we ever recover from this disastrous administration?

    That reminds me of the end of financial year rush.

    You would receive lots of quote requests from Government departments looking to spend any unspent monies.

    The only requirement on receiving an order was that it was invoiced in that financial year.

  22. Barney

    Once upon a time, in a land far away (my youth), I worked for a government body, looking after the accounts. The final month in each financial year was spent in transferring money around to prove that it had all been spent according to estimates.

  23. He connived at Boeing and others rebranding the War Memorial as an Arms Manufacturers Hall of Shame.

    I’ve heard more than one person refer to it as War World.

  24. The Australian
    @australian
    ·
    8m
    #EXCLUSIVE: The nation’s biggest municipal authority, Brisbane City Council, has banned townhouses in established neighbourhoods to save the backyard, triggering warnings that this could compound an emerging housing shortage.

    @SisterOMalley
    ·
    2m
    Its just over half of the city area- hardly a crisis.

    The more hard surface, fewer green space & trees- the hotter the microclimate, & greater need to aircond.

    They are planning for the future with climate part of the plan so no wonder the dinosaurs at the Oz are critical.

  25. Greg Jericho
    @GrogsGamut
    ·
    *Everyone* who voted to end the carbon price should have their names listed on a wall of shame for future generations to remember and condemn.
    And you don’t get a pass for now coming out after you have left parliament and say the Govt should lead in climate change.

  26. Well, all I can say is, thank goodness for Telstra! Maybe, along with Optus, the only ISP who you can go to after an electrical storm, because they have a Telstra Shop at your local shopping centre, and purchase a new Modem after your old one got zapped by a lightning strike which jumped the Surge Protector powerboard the day before.

    This, in comparison to other ISPs where you have to ring up and request a new modem and wait 7-10 working days for it to be shipped out to you.

    Telstra may do a lot of things wrong, but all ISPs do. They also do a lot of things right.

  27. lizzie
    “The more hard surface, fewer green space & trees- the hotter the microclimate, & greater need to aircond.

    They are planning for the future with climate part of the plan so no wonder the dinosaurs at the Oz are critical.”

    I would criticise both sides here. Townhouses done badly are a blight on the suburb and its amenity. But so are McMansions on single blocks, if they build to within one metre of the boundary and have a “backyard” less than five metres wide. Bad quality development is a problem, whether medium or low density. In an era of over inflated property prices with politicians reluctant to burst the bubble, we have gone too soft on developers under the delusion it helps “affordability”. It does the opposite.

    There need to be rules on the facade facing to the street, amount of site coverage and green area in both cases (townhouses and detached houses), and those rules need to be enforced. Brisbane has a huge problem with too low population density, so this is precisely the wrong answer to the problem IMO. They need to force developers to do medium density properly, rather than keep taking their donations and let them do medium or low density badly. Even in Los Angeles these days they do medium density better than Brisbane.
    https://www.citylab.com/design/2014/12/in-los-angeles-density-that-doesnt-overwhelm/383798/

  28. Socrates

    They need to force developers to do medium density properly, rather than keep taking their donations and let them do medium or low density badly.

    The spreading suburbs full of McMansions west and south east of Melbourne are shocking examples of developers in control.

  29. Shellbell @ #2237 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 10:35 am

    I like the Trivago ad person. I am willing to forgive her association with 400,000 plus breaches of the consumer law.

    I find her annoying as hell. She does that Millennial smug sass thing and lays it on with a trowel. So I advised my son, who is going to live in America, to give the website a big swerve. Also because of their illegal ways of sucking customers in. 🙂

  30. lizzie

    I am not a fan of what Australian state governments (Labor and Liberal) have done with managing property development in recent years. If Labor does not know what competent development policy is, as usual, they would be well advised to look across the ditch to see it done competently. See NZ examples of good quality medium density housing here. Not a blot on the landscape in sight.
    https://www.mfe.govt.nz/more/towns-and-cities/medium-density-housing

  31. Lizzie
    “The spreading suburbs full of McMansions west and south east of Melbourne are shocking examples of developers in control.”

    Yes. Those suburbs are future ghettos. And they will cost a fortune to government to service so far out.

  32. “I find her annoying as hell. She does that Millennial smug sass thing and lays it on with a trowel. ”

    Yes. That German word for most slap-worthy face is quite apt.


  33. Shellbell says:
    Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 10:35 am

    I like the Trivago ad person. I am willing to forgive her association with 400,000 plus breaches of the consumer law.

    Can’t stand the smart-ass. Advert for a web site screwing over the customer and the business. What is there to like.
    https://vimeo.com/288285200

  34. I like the Trivago ad person. I am willing to forgive her association with 400,000 plus breaches of the consumer law.

    I concur. Gabrielle Miller is one of our loveliest exports.

    Disclaimer: I do admit that I am a fool for a beautiful brunette. They can do no wrong.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=trivago+girl&client=ms-android-hmd-rev2&prmd=ivn&sxsrf=ACYBGNSEsiohCBYIMiJure_1vLsLTVW83w:1579562843807&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj2itKRqpPnAhXazjgGHVCzChQQ_AUoAXoECBEQAQ&cshid=1579563116124&biw=360&bih=625&dpr=2#imgrc=MW_Z_dWO1HToaM

  35. Socrates
    Australian architecture is at times ordinary but looking at those NZ pictures, they don’t seem much different from what is found here.

    London and Paris seem to get the blend between new housing and respecting their heritage far better than Australia does.

  36. There must be thousands of unhappy people. Why didn’t we turf out this government?

    jeremy poxon
    @JeremyPoxon
    ·
    5m
    welp, im being forced into Work For the Dole — even though I was in paid work up until November & do ~40 hrs of volunteering/week. Last time, WFD very nearly drove me to suicide: it’s 25 hrs/week of free, coerced labour w/ a lauded 2% success rate of getting ppl into a “real” job

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