Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A crash in Scott Morrison’s standing finds Labor edging ahead on voting intention, and Anthony Albanese taking the lead on preferred prime minister.

The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.

Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).

The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.

More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,417 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Yep.

    Counterchekist
    @counterchekist
    ·
    8h
    It’s clear that tRUmp fears running against Biden in 2020.

    RIS ops in Ukraine highlight both tRUmp and the Kremlin’s fear of a Biden candidacy.

    Why? Because they know Biden will win.

    Only question remaining: Do Dems want to win in 2020?

  2. Guytaur

    The GOP will be so happy to run against Sanders. GOP victory is assured.
    Sanders foreign policies are not going to convince the public who are going to vote.
    He should get out of the way.

  3. Victoria

    The GOP did a trial run. It was called Kansas. If socialism was the demon that conservatives make out the Blue Dog Democrat would not have won.

    You don’t get much more of a Red State than Kentucky.

  4. @UrbanWronski
    ·
    11m
    ABC RN running Morrison govt BS that it will continue to put downward pressure on food prices after bushfires and drought.
    How? As it did with petrol, electricity or insurance premiums? This is not news, ABC, it’s disinformation. Pure Federal government spin. Lies and deceit.

  5. Victoria @ #1401 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 4:56 am

    Yep.

    Counterchekist
    @counterchekist
    ·
    8h
    It’s clear that tRUmp fears running against Biden in 2020.

    RIS ops in Ukraine highlight both tRUmp and the Kremlin’s fear of a Biden candidacy.

    Why? Because they know Biden will win.

    Only question remaining: Do Dems want to win in 2020?

    It’s been obvious to me the reason Team Trump have gone so hard and put so much effort into trying to crash Biden is because they know he is their biggest re-election threat. They’d love, relish even, running against Bernie or Warren which is why Trump has rarely bothered attacking them since the campaign started.

  6. Victoria

    Sanders is the front runner in Iowa and New Hampshire. Its you being gullible buying the GOP rhetoric in contradiction to election results and what the polling is telling us.

    Like it or not you can have your own opinion not your own facts

  7. Guytaur

    Front runner or not. He will not win the presidency. Which is the point of the whole exercise. I wish he would just go away. He is a spoiler.

    The Dems need to hold the house, and win the Senate and the presidency.
    So they need to go with someone who can get them there. Sanders ain’t it.

    I have nothing more to say and anything more you have to say will be ignored by me.

  8. Hola Bludgers, thanks BK

    A small incident but just another example of the pervasiveness of the impact of the fires, plus the country is going to the dogs:

    Person boarded flight to Melbourne in the Canberra bubble.
    Sat on tarmac for an hour because of traffic delays in Melbourne airport having to do with smoke.
    Landing aborted in Melbourne due to two dogs on the runway!
    Travel time: about three hours the normal time it takes to get from the Bubble to Melbourne.

  9. @RNBreakfast

    Science Minister @karenandrewsmp is hosting a roundtable of science leaders and experts on how the Government should deal with longer and more severe #bushfire seasons.

    ***

    Tony Windsor @TonyHWindsor
    ·
    We have a Science Minister….when did that happen? Her own people refer to her as Co2…invisible.

  10. Victoria

    The Front Runner is not a spoiler. Trump is worried. We have had numerous polls telling us that yes like Biden Sanders beats Trump in head to head contests.

    These are facts not opinion.

    Michael Moore who predicted Trump’s win is backing Sanders.

    If you want to make it about electability Sanders has as good a story if not better than Biden as he voted against the iraq War. Has an excellent Universal Health Care Policy.

    Listen to the GOP as you do of course you are going to hear he is unelectable. However as that article from the Daily Beast points out Trump knows Sanders is a threat too.

  11. Ted CruzVerified account@tedcruz
    3h3 hours ago
    Which clause of the Constitution gives a President the authority to give away a trillion $ w/o Congress? And if you like this policy, how would you feel if/when a GOP president does it for something you don’t like? Here’s a better idea: follow the Const & don’t be a dictator.

    At first I thought Cruz had finally turned and suddenly the impeachment trial might be interesting. But he’s actually referring to Elizabeth Warren’s policy on higher ed. The hypocrisy and the memory lapse over the last 3 years is simply astonishing.

  12. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/joe-hockeys-farewell-draws-elite-of-us-industry-and-politics/news-story/af6c226d085eb4f74a355be150279488

    Asked what his proudest achievement was in Washington, Mr Hockey said “navigating this uncertain world with twists and turns everywhere”.

    With his hard earned wealth of navigational experience the likelihood of Mr. Hockey being named as the skipper of the yet to be launched 4 metre tinny, tentatively named “Trump That” is assured.

    The further announcement of Mr. Hockey’s replacement, like for like, by Mr. Sinodinos has seasoned diplomatic observers rejoicing and desperately seeking superlative in praise of the magnificence of what is certain sure to be a successful transition. The only possible snag in the water has been raised by sniping lefties with the pathetic put down

    Mr. Sinodinos is a –

    Mr Hockey’s term finishes at the end of next week and he will be replaced by former senator Arthur Sinodinos. But Mr Hockey will remain in Washington for much of this year, doing part-time lecturing on public policy at the American University while he works out his next move, which is likely to be a corporate role in the US.

    Mr Hockey has said that despite serving 20 years in federal parliament, including four jobs as a minister and now a four-year term as ambassador in Washington, he wants to keep working.

    Taking time to actually read some of this crap I notice with a sense of exhilaration akin to exultation the magic words

    “likely to be a corporate role in the US”.

  13. GG

    We shall see we only have a month to wait.

    My point is pretty clear. Unlike others I am not predicting wins just pointing out Sanders is not the demon many think he is because he identifies as socialist.

    The US body politic has changed and Kansas proved it. Election results count.

  14. GG

    We shall see we only have a month to wait.

    My point is pretty clear. Unlike others I am not predicting wins just pointing out Sanders is not the demon many think he is because he identifies as socialist.

    The US body politic has changed and Kansas proved it. Election results count.

  15. This is a pretty good assessment of how Trump reaches low information voters, while Democrats are left fighting battles most voters are switched off to.

    You see something similar here, with PBers believing twitter is where it’s at, expressing surprise and even frustration that that terrible thing Scott Morrison did yesterday wasn’t on high rotation on the 6pm news or in the papers the next day.

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/01/why-trump-has-huge-advantage-over-democrats-low-information-voters?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=vanity-fair&utm_social-type=earned

  16. Wombats do not heroically round up helpless animals during a bushfire and lead them to safety. But wombats do help other animals in a different way – even if it’s not their intention.

    Wombats can emerge as accidental heroes during a bushfire, by providing a safe refuge underground for other wildlife.

    Wombat warrens – networks of interconnecting burrows – are large and complex, and considerably shielded from the above-ground environment. Small mammals are known to use wombat burrows to survive an inferno.

    One study of the southern hairy-nosed wombat, for instance, found warrens with 28 entrances and nearly 90 metres of tunnels.

    What’s more, temperatures deep within burrows are very stable compared to surface temperatures, with daily temperature fluctuations of less than 1℃, compared to 24℃ on the surface.

    This thermal buffering would help a great deal during intense fires, and you can understand why other species would want access to these safe havens.

    https://theconversation.com/tales-of-wombat-heroes-have-gone-viral-unfortunately-theyre-not-true-129891?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton

  17. Saint Bernie the Sexist, who has also just okayed an Op Ed by one of his African American campaign workers attacking Joe Biden’s record with African Americans:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/13/politics/bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-meeting/index.html

    (CNN)The stakes were high when Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren met at Warren’s apartment in Washington, DC, one evening in December 2018. The longtime friends knew that they could soon be running against each other for president.

    The two agreed that if they ultimately faced each other as presidential candidates, they should remain civil and avoid attacking one another, so as not to hurt the progressive movement. They also discussed how to best take on President Donald Trump, and Warren laid out two main reasons she believed she would be a strong candidate: She could make a robust argument about the economy and earn broad support from female voters.
    Sanders responded that he did not believe a woman could win.
    The description of that meeting is based on the accounts of four people: two people Warren spoke with directly soon after the encounter, and two people familiar with the meeting.
    After publication of this story, Warren herself backed up this account of the meeting, saying in part in a statement Monday, “I thought a woman could win; he disagreed.”

  18. GG:

    A new Quinnipac poll also shows Trump’s job approval on handling the economy is at an all time high, a further challenge for Democrats to overcome this year. 😮

    President Trump’s job approval rating is unchanged from a month ago when 52 percent disapproved of the president’s job performance and 43 percent approved in a December 16 Quinnipiac University poll. This is tied for the president’s highest approval number since he took office. He also gets a new record high approval rating for his handling of the economy, which voters approve of 57 – 38 percent.

    https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3653

  19. @raywilton4
    ·
    5h
    “Two of Australia’s biggest insurers, Suncorp and IAG, have temporarily stopped selling insurance policies across large swathes of Victoria and some areas in New South Wales affected by bushfires.”
    Here we go. CC costs on ordinary folks will be huge

  20. Cat

    Ah yes the smear.

    We shall see how that plays out. However be in no doubt I am not calling Sanders a saint. I am pointing out a reality that Sanders is by polling and election results not a demon bogeyman Trump can use to win.

    Sanders Jewish.
    Backed by Women of Colour AOC and most of the squad.

    CNN is busy generating controversy for their debate. It won’t go well. Warren and Sanders are friends and are likely to say so. They came out of the very meeting CNN is quoting agreeing not to attack each other.

  21. Such as how the electoral college operates, Trump could lose the popular vote by as much as 5% and still win on electoral votes, if he manages to barely win the rust belt states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. It is highly unlikely that there is any appreciable swing among the “Obama-Trump” working-class, less educated white men that are the key constituency.

    As for Australia, I will no longer campaign for any party in upcoming federal elections. The Murdoch-Rag media can effectively buy the COALition power in perpetuity. While they may not be fooling us soy-latte sippers, the general population (in ANY country) is easy to fool. Some people say that the power of the internet has changed things but the general electorate (read: old, unenlightened, less educated white men) do not search for The Guardian online. More meaningful action would be to contribute to non-governmental organisations rather than pointlessly trying to wrest power that is effectively entrenched.

  22. My biggest argument to climate deniers is you follow the money. Insurance company actuaries have been factoring in human caused climate change since the mid 1970’s.
    The fact thst actuaries at Suncorp & IAG won’t issue new policies in bushfire areas is indicative of the reality. Insurance ceases to BE insurance the more inevitable an event becomes.
    If your policy cost ends up being a large proportion of the replacement cost due to the size of the risk then it becomes wrong for a company to continue to take your money, particularly if safety is involved.
    Just like trying to get insured on Bribie Island for sea level related activity.

  23. Morning All,

    It’s just like going to a pub pre 1 July 2007 here in Melbourne.

    I note at that time when smoking bans were introduced at pubs and clubs all across the nation we had “Wall to Wall” state Labor Governments…

  24. Cameron C. @ #1432 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 8:49 am

    Such as how the electoral college operates, Trump could lose the popular vote by as much as 5% and still win on electoral votes, if he manages to barely win the rust belt states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. It is highly unlikely that there is any appreciable swing among the “Obama-Trump” working-class, less educated white men that are the key constituency.

    As for Australia, I will no longer campaign for any party in upcoming federal elections. The Murdoch-Rag media can effectively buy the COALition power in perpetuity. While they may not be fooling us soy-latte sippers, the general population (in ANY country) is easy to fool. Some people say that the power of the internet has changed things but the general electorate (read: old, unenlightened, less educated white men) do not search for The Guardian online. More meaningful action would be to contribute to non-governmental organisations rather than pointlessly trying to wrest power that is effectively entrenched.

    Because voting is non compulsory, the Election outcome will depend on which demographics turn up on the day. Will the ever Trumpers stay pissed with world long enough to get them out to vote or will the Democrats that didn’t turn up last time be energised enough by the offerings of their eventual candidate?

  25. Westminster “democracy” Part 3.

    In a facetious point-scoring letter, as expected, the Westminster PM rejected the request from the FM of Scotland to hold a referendum for independence.

    This reinforces the view that the precious “union” is a prison from which “legal” escape can only be at the whim of the English Parliament.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote

  26. All those head to head opinion polls that Guytaur refers to has Trump at 42-43%. The same as his overall approval rating. Moreover, on the back of the continuing Obama economic miracle he has a massive approval rating on the one key metric that counts in elections – managing the economy.

    What that all translates to is a rock solid 28% of eligible voters turning out and casting a ballot for Trump in November: mainly drawn from all those rural towns and small cities that make up the heartland.

    Given the structure of the electoral college system, where most of 58% who disapprove of Trump and the propensity of those 58% to not vote at the same consistency as the Trump-RNC base I’d say Trump is in a formidable position right now to be re-elected. Moreover, the Republican’s think so too: that’s why they are sticking to the Trump dumpster like glue even as they debase themselves in unimaginable ways.

    Biden, Sanders, Warren, Bloomberg – all Boomers arguing about thinks that they and their generation failed to get done when they were in their Prime in the 1980s and 90s. None of them will be able to inspire a sufficient cross section of the patchwork quilt that makes up the non Republican demographic majority to actually come out and folk in a Presidential GE in large enough numbers in the right places to win.

    Even though Mayor Pete’s head to head numbers are not as good as any of the Septuagenarians, I think that is manly due to still lacking a level of voter recognition that the blowhard boomers have as a natural advantage – given that they have all been on the national stage for decades. That would change in a GE campaign I think. It may yet change during the actual primaries.

    At least Mayor Pete has come of age in the 21st century and will likely be alive for most of it. At least he is relevant. Step down Boomers. It’s time for a new generation of Americans to lead.

  27. Fantastic article from Vanity Fair, ‘fess. And what applies to the Democrats applies to Labor:

    “They don’t trust CNN or Fox, see them as two sides of the same coin,” said Favreau. “They don’t even trust what they read on Facebook anymore, which is probably a very good thing, but the result is that they don’t know what to believe, and so they just largely tune out.” The focus groups crystallized the imperative for Democrats to find new ways to reach the irregular voters they need, with tactics and innovations that slice through the confusion of the media landscape. It’s more than that, though: The Democratic nominee must feel, for lack of a better phrase, bigger and more relevant than politics. “Twitter isn’t real life” has become a common refrain for critics who want the press and campaigns to keep their sights on voters who don’t spend their days yelling about politics online. But for many of the people in Favreau’s focus groups, politics isn’t real life, either. The eventual Democratic nominee, he said, is duty-bound to fix that. He pointed to an interview with former Georgia gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, also airing on this season of The Wilderness: “What I think we all have to hold to, is that our ambitions have to be met with our capacity to deliver,” Abrams told him. “Because for the people who are the most easily dissuaded from participation, it’s when you promise them the moon and can‘t deliver a single grain of sand.”

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/01/why-trump-has-huge-advantage-over-democrats-low-information-voters?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=vanity-fair&utm_social-type=earned

    The Labor Party also have to reach out and connect with these time poor, low information voters who just want the government that they vote for to keep things ticking over successfully for them and their family, basically.

    Labor should just ignore all of us who obsess over politics every day. 😆

  28. AE

    We know from survey questions asked at exit polls of Trump voters they would have voted Sanders not Trump in Rust Belt areas of Swing States.

    GG is more on the money talking turnout.

    However Sanders enthuses the likely stay at home of the young. The significance of his enthusiasm following including the grassroots donors is turnout for him among those that stayed home for Clinton will turn out for Sanders.

    Plus getting some Trump voters to vote Democrat.

    Thats his electablilty argument. Its a better one IMO than that of Biden.
    Remember the only prediction I have made is I think Biden will fall and the Corporate Democrats will then back Warren not wanting Sanders.

    I said this weeks ago. I still see this happening. Its why I think its significant the Obama people have moved onto the Warren campaign.

    I could still be wrong but I think I am more right than those that are relying on a “Firewall”

    We have seen how thats turned out in several elections world wide when political operatives start talking firewalls.

  29. Greensborough Growler says: Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 8:56 am

    Because voting is non compulsory, the Election outcome will depend on which demographics turn up on the day. Will the ever Trumpers stay pissed with world long enough to get them out to vote or will the Democrats that didn’t turn up last time be energised enough by the offerings of their eventual candidate?

    *********************************************************************

  30. Joe Hockey retires in an orgy of self-congratulation and lots of food.

    7NEWS Sydney @7NewsSydney
    · 2h
    .@JoeHockey will be farewelled as Australia’s ambassador to the U.S. at a gala party in Washington DC on Saturday. American political and business leaders are among some 400 attendees who plan to attend the bash along with Australian powerbrokers. http://7NEWS.com.au #7NEWS

  31. Revd Andrew Klein ( Chaplain) @KleinRevd
    ·
    6m
    Under the #Morrison government we see water insecurity, food insecurity & certainly air insecurity ( in quality terms).
    We have bushfire insecurity, insurance uncertainty, economic instability and social safety net degradation #auspol

    I could go on , but I see a pattern .

  32. The run of published economic data since the start of the year has been pretty good.

    It confirms the economy ended 2019 with a dose of positive momentum. This is good news and it set the scene for 2020 being a year of solid growth. Indeed, the economy was on track to record 3 per cent GDP growth for the first time in half a decade.

    The fires are an unprecedented catastrophe that risk derailing the economic pick-up for at least a few months.

    As a result of the fires, we know a huge number of consumers stayed at home, avoiding inhaling rancid smoke, rather than venturing to the shops and spending. People linked to the tourism industry in the bush fire areas have seen mass cancellations during what is usually a peak school holiday summer season.

    Business have closed or curtailed operations due to the smoke, especially those involving outdoor work. Sporting events, race meetings and a myriad of other pastimes have been cancelled and the activity associated with them has been lost to the economy.

    The hit to the economy from this will be big and will likely show up in the data released over the next few months.

    One doesn’t have to be an economist to understand this. What does our Treasurer say???

    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/australia-pickup-choked-smoke-010439655.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw

  33. “ We know from survey questions asked at exit polls of Trump voters they would have voted Sanders not Trump in Rust Belt areas of Swing States.”

    This trope is a made up factoid. Having gone through the county by county returns from the 2012 and 2016 elections for Wisconsin, Michigan and most of Pennsylvania it was obvious – the democrat vote in urban areas was down in 2016 from 2012 whereas the republican vote was with a margin of error of what it was in 2012. In the rural counties the democrat vote was actually relatively similar to 2012 but the republican vote had a massive massive increase.

    Long story short – very little evidence of a shift from Obama to Trump in the cities. Rather, city folk (mainly non college educated black men and to a lesser degree the educated youth vote) just stayed at home in ‘just enough’ numbers to allow Trump’s rural surge of folk who just didn’t vote in 2012 but did vote in 2016 to have a decisive effect.

    If sanders was the candidate I reckon he would have done worse in getting out the vote than Hillary amongst the the black and Hispanic communities and with the with educated women vote but better at getting out the college kids – mainly I think because at the last moment there was a huge turn off because of the late breaking news out of the ‘emails’ story of Anthony Weiner’ s unfortunate association with Hillary via his long suffering wife.

    However, Bernie’s vote with independents would have been terrible – the republicans had deliberately played silent on Bernie’s socialist past during the primaries – but their anti Bernie playbook was fierce. Independents in america are largely pro capitalist economically but progressive of social issues. If the republicans went to town on suppressing this demographic then I reckon up to 10 million independents who actually turned up to vote for Hillary would not have done so for theBern.

    Bernie would have lost the popular vote to trump by 5-10 million in 2016. Which is what will happen if he secures the nomination this time around. I suspect that none of your polling data has taken into account just how fierce and focused the republican voter suppression Campaign targeting Bernie with independents will be if he wins the Primaries.

    At least sleepy Joe and turn coat republican Warren have a better chance of holding up support amongst independents. However, each of those campaigns are for other reasons deeply, terminally flawed.

  34. Allan Green
    @Tank9999

    The Abbott Turnbull Morrison Govt is now accepting #ClimateChange is real

    They will not accept it is caused by Human Activity so their response is NOT ABOUT EMISSIONS

    They want us to be #Resiliant & #Adapt

    This is what Sydney & Melbourne adapting looks like
    #AustraliaBushfires


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *