The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.
Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).
The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.
More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.
Andrew-Earlwood,
Read the Vanity Fair article about Jon Favreau’s focus groups:
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/01/why-trump-has-huge-advantage-over-democrats-low-inform
Andrew_Earlwood
“This trope is a made up factoid. ”
You bet it is. And boy, I’m sick of hearing this malarkey from the Bernie Boosters, still fighting the last election.
Why do we need to fact check claims made about Australia’s bushfires?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2020/jan/15/why-do-we-need-to-fact-check-claims-made-about-australias-bushfires
Insurance was always going to be the bellwether for putting an exact price on global warming because the industry creates a market on the relationship between theoretical climate science and the real lived experience, betwenen the general and the personal.
Early responses include baling out altogether, raising premiums so high that cannot be paid, expecting governments to pay for shortfalls in disaster response costs, and demanding that governments pay for risk reduction (levees, etc). Another golden oldie has been the persistent efforts to force low risk insurers to share the increase in premiums on behalf of those who take on high risk. All these are gathering pace.
For these fires, insurance payouts will completely overwhelm the contingency funds set up by the insurance industry.
Expect massive attempts by the industry, and by high risk takers, to socialize the costs and privatize the profits.
Taxpayers, you have been warned.
Former Victorian Labor premier says the prime minister must act on global heating and put a price on carbon
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/15/scott-morrison-in-danger-of-becoming-a-climate-change-casualty-says-steve-bracks
Peg
Do we know what di Natale is saying? Or is he on holidays?
p1
I am not sure if you are around but the Feds have announced a demand driven grant program for farmers affected by the fires. $75,000 per farmer.
The initial budget allocation is $100 million which will be increased if required.
I suggest you should be getting onto your tourism organizations/small business associations to be screaming blue bloody murder about the instant favoritism to farmers.
Why isn’t the $75,000 also being made to all small business who have suffered financial hardship because of the fires?
“Omnicide: Who is responsible for the gravest of all crimes?”
https://www.abc.net.au/religion/danielle-celermajer-omnicide-gravest-of-all-crimes/11838534
https://www.abc.net.au/religion/learning-from-jimmys-grief-after-the-inferno/11862360
It is not just property and business losses.
It is payouts related to health consequences of fires, trauma and toxi smoke.
These have already partly been covered with access to counselling… so the Feds are already covering off on insurance claims in that respect.
Former deputy premier and environment minister in Victoria John Thwaites
It’s climate change, not ‘greens’ standing in the way of fuel reduction burns
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/14/its-climate-change-not-greens-standing-in-the-way-of-fuel-reduction-burns?utm_term=RWRpdG9yaWFsX01vcm5pbmdNYWlsQVVTLTIwMDExNA%3D%3D&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=MorningMailAUS&CMP=morningmailau_email
A chilling effect’: Human Rights Watch slams Australia’s raids on the media
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/a-chilling-effect-human-rights-watch-slams-australia-s-raids-on-the-media-20200114-p53r9x.html
zoomster @ #1456 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 9:45 am
He called for the Royal Commission, so THAT’S what made it happen. 😆
Climate change will reshape finance, world’s largest fund manager says
https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/climate-change-will-reshape-finance-world-s-largest-fund-manager-says-20200115-p53rix.html
BW:’I suggest you should be getting onto your tourism organizations/small business associations to be screaming blue bloody murder about the instant favoritism to farmers.’
Not the way P1 operates.
P1 will be telling us what Labor should do. Forget the LNP, they are in power and can do something, but P1’s efforts will be directed to lecturing Labor.
John Kerin-former Cabinet Minister in the Hawke Government
https://johnmenadue.com/john-kerin-reform-and-the-alp/
Pegasus
Oh dear. Yet another Labor person telling it like it is.
Yes Labor’s problem is the Greens we all know it 🙂
https://twitter.com/RichardDiNatale/status/1216908217948655617
Greens call for climate emergency national stockpile
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-call-for-climate-emergency-national-stockpile-20200112-p53qsp.html
guytaur
You failed to give us a report on the Greens last conference. You failed to tell us what you are doing to help members get back control of the Greens party.
The Greens great climate change policy. A stockpile of masks to protect the sensitive inner city lungs.
https://twitter.com/RichardDiNatale/status/1216538035044532224
FredNK
I will say it again for you. I am not a member of any political party. i do not go to political party conferences. I observe from outside.
That means I am more in touch with the low information voter than you are because I am not as engaged in politics as you are.
I hope thats crystal clear and yes I am more politically aware than low information voters just less partisan and involved than you are.
Text messages and handwritten notes. Are these people stupid?
bakunin @ #1467 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 10:09 am
How very Liberal Party ‘Adaptation’ and ‘Resilience’ of The Greens.
Cat
If the Greens are adopting Liberal party tactics to win on policy they might just do well.
The Liberals have been winning elections.
What are the Greens saying? Seems some PBer’s can’t use the actual internet to find information, just like any other low-information voter or what?
Seems the born-again Laborites also raising Garnaut’s book and policy ideas are just catching up to where the Greens have been for a while.
Interesting to see that not only the Libs and Nats are on that climate denial map posted earlier, but so are Fitzgibbon and Emerson and the ALP, due to the donations received for the party and the obvious connections between former party members and coal lobby interests.
https://greens.org.au/platform/renewables
“Creating a renewable economy that tackles climate change, creates jobs, makes bills cheaper and energy more reliable.
This is it. We are in a global race against time on climate change. We’re seeing its effects all around us: severe drought, more intense and longer bushfire seasons and rising sea levels.
Australia has the capacity to be a world leader in climate action and renewable energy, phasing out coal and building a renewable energy economy that exports clean energy to the world.
The mining, burning and exporting of coal is the world’s biggest cause of climate change – and Australia is the world’s biggest exporter of coal.
Instead of embracing renewable energy and tackling climate change, both the Liberal and Labor parties have propped up the coal, gas and oil industries while accepting millions of dollars in political donations. The fossil fuel lobby continues to do everything it can to undermine action on climate change and block the transition to renewable technology.
By ending the influence of fossil fuel giants and their lobbyists, we can transform Australia’s energy system from one of the oldest and dirtiest in the world to one of the cleanest and smartest.
The Greens have a strong and evidence-based plan for a rapid, managed transition to a renewable energy economy – one that will replace coal with renewables, build a new clean-energy export industry and create 180,000 new jobs.
Right now, the future is in our hands. We can stop the damage being done to our climate, and we can hand over a better, safer future for generations to come”
“Phase out coal, move to 100% renewables and deliver cheap, clean and reliable energy for homes, businesses and industry · More »
Create 180,000 new jobs in renewables, including a renewable energy export industry to replace coal exports · More »
Provide support for coal workers and communities as we phase out coal · More »
Create Power Australia, a not-for-profit, public energy retailer for renewables · More »
Prioritise and properly fund clean, safe, affordable public and active transport · More »
Kick start the electric vehicle revolution and reduce the cost of electric vehicles · More »
End political donations from mining companies · More »”
lizzie @ #1450 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 9:29 am
Thanks, lizzie.
You know what makes us feel worst? Paradoxically, it is that we look around us and see that there are thousands of people much worse off than we are. We suffered no injuries, had none of our major buildings destroyed, and still enjoy a buffer of green and pleasant surroundings. Our wildlife also seems largely unaffected. Even our air quality is better than most of the rest of the state. As the catastrophe worsened around us, we slowly realized how lucky we were, and we now feel a bit guilty when we have to complain about anything, or try and claim disaster relief. Our disaster has been mostly just financial and is likely to be temporary, whereas others have suffered permanent damage – losing lives, homes and livelihoods.
It actually embarrassed us yesterday when the insurance assessor finally came. When we lodged the claim six weeks ago, it felt like we had suffered a significant loss. Now, I feel like apologizing to them for wasting their time 🙁
So no reports of di Natale touring fire affected regions and listening to people’s concerns on the ground?
I wonder why…
PeeBee @ #1464 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 9:57 am
Every day, on PB, in blissful ignorance of that reality.
zoomster @ #1477 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 10:18 am
He’s a Doctor, he does ‘medical’ solutions…for inner city habitues and residents. 😆
C@tmomma @ #1473 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 10:15 am
I remember the trauma of the moment like yesterday: The day my parents told me I’d been adapted.
C@t:
How many months have the fires been burning and finally the Greens leader gets off his privileged and entitled backside and remembers that the environment is supposed to be his party’s signature policy issue and his party should have something to say about it?
If only the Greens put the environment first instead of prioritising their petty and pointless war against Labor. Imagine if the Greens woke up and smelled the reality of the coalition government consistently walking our country away from our international and domestic responsibilities to reduce our GHGEs.
Yep, Ross Garnaur. The guy the…..Labor Party tasked with coming up with solutions to Climate Change back in 2007. 😐
Greensborough Growler @ #1480 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 10:19 am
So, why aren’t you a Liberal then? Or a Green? 😆
power and energy magazine USA.
Changes are coming.
Electrification of transportation
• Electric vehicle (EV) deployment across the globe is growing at 40–60% year over year, including EVs, buses, trucks, and semis.
• A fast-charging infrastructure is needed for urban, low-in-come, and rural EVs and truck/ bus fleets.
• In five years, EVs will be a major load on the U.S. grid, and grid co-ordination/integration will be key.
Data centers
• Data centers are growing fast, with large new centers consuming 100 MW plus.
• In five years, data centers are expected to grow to 10% of the U.S. electrical energy consumption.
PVs, wind, storage and other renewable resources
• PV and wind energy, including 4 h of energy storage, were priced in 2019 at US$32/MWh and US$24/MWh, respectively, dispatchable and at a much lower cost than base generation.
• There is strong interest from commercial, industrial, and residential users in clean renewable energy.
• The need for dynamic balancing of the grid under distributed energy resource variability exists as does the need for storage to deliver time-shifted energy back to the grid.
• The ability to operate microgrids connected to or islanded from the grid offers new opportunities and challenges.
Other major factors
• All devices at the grid edge are becoming intelligent, communications enabled, and, in many cases, capable of taking autonomous action to change their behavior or interaction with the grid.
• The cyberphysical security of the grid is becoming an extremely important issue.
• Resiliency of the grid following major climate events is needed, or there may be widearea service disruptions.
• Distributed and decentralized control of the grid is necessary.
• Shrinking markets for grid assets and global competitive pressures are causing traditional vendors to abandon the grid business; attrition of the vendor base may pose an existential threat.
• In a highly regulated market, with state control over utilities, it is very challenging for rapid change to occur. The appetite for risk in such a regulated market is very low, making it difficult for new technologies to be tried out on the grid side. So how will rapid change be managed?
And even if Di Natale has been on holidays since the Senate rose last year, doesn’t the Greens federal party have an entire closet full of deputy leaders who could’ve been carrying the can for climate change these past weeks? Where have they been?
Confessions @ #1481 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 10:21 am
Yes, it would be interesting to find out where the Black Wiggle has been all this time?
But it’s harder to get information like that out of The Greens than it is out of the Liberal Party!
I see the Black Wiggle still has space rent free in Labor factional warriors heads.
Confessions @ #1485 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 10:23 am
And even when one of their own, Scott Ludlam, was caught up directly in the bushfires!
Though I expect Larissa was busy overseeing The Greens’ new earring range for 2020.
Boerwar @ #1457 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 9:46 am
Hello Boerwar
Yes, I heard that. We are waiting to see how it applies to small business. We are still in touch with Fiona Phillips – she is keeping locals informed as to what relief options are available. We will also be pursuing the various tourism organizations here.
Anger at the unfairness of not taking seasonality into account when assessing lost income seems to be growing amongst local people and businesses. Why, I even heard it mentioned on the ABC! And if it can penetrate that insular organization, there is a change it could even penetrate parliament house!
PeeBee @ #1464 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 9:57 am
Gosh, who got out of the wrong side of bed this morning?
C@t:
I’ve seen Ludlam (although he’s no longer in the parliament) and SHY commenting on the fires, the latter likely only because of the fires on Kangaroo Is. All the others have been MIA.
Cometh the hour on AGW, disappeareth the Greens it would seem.
“Anger at the unfairness of not taking seasonality into account when assessing lost income seems to be growing amongst local people and businesses. Why, I even heard it mentioned on the ABC! And if it can penetrate that insular organization, there is a change it could even penetrate parliament house!”
————————–
Robodebt for small business!
Confessions
Bandt is not being a quite Australian
While the fires continue to rage, Interim Leader Jo Ann Roberts reaches out to Australian Green MP Adam Bandt to talk about how the world’s third largest exporter of climate pollutants can stop the flames.
Tune in: https://peoplepoliticsplanet.simplecast.com/episodes/15-the-canary-in-australias-coal-mines-fossil-fuels-in-an-era-of-apocalyptic-bushfires https://twitter.com/CanadianGreens/status/1216848314085335045/video/1
Also if you think Senator Jordan Steele has been quiet I have a bridge to sell the Labor partisans on this site.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/15/leaked-photos-of-papua-new-guinea-prison-reveal-torture-of-18-asylum-seekers-cut-off-from-world?CMP=share_btn_tw
C@tmomma @ #1478 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 10:18 am
It really gripes you that I criticize not only the Coalition and the Greens, but also Labor, doesn’t it?
You really just don’t know how to handle that.
Well, you could start by acknowledging (even if only quietly, and to yourself) that Labor is not exactly at the top of its game right at the moment.
Pegasus says:
Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 10:02 am
John Kerin-former Cabinet Minister in the Hawke Government
_________________________________
When the Coalition spokesperson talks I want to know what they are actually doing, given they are the government. I’m not interested in hearing them talk about Labor and the Greens, because they are not in Government.
When Labor’s spokesperson talks I’m happy to hear them talk about the Government and about themselves. I have no interest in their comments on the Greens.
When the Greens spokesperson talks I’m happy to hear them talk about the Government and about themselves. I have no interest in their comments on Labor. Like the Government you seem to exert too much energy and posting space talking about the major party not in government and saying as little as possible about yourselves. I wonder why….
Surprise, surprise.
CFMMEU Mining and Energy own a 5% stake in the joint venture between Glencore and Peabody at United Wambo Coal in the Hunter. The mine had a 150,000,000 tonne expansion approved in August 2019. The mine is expected to export 10,000,000 tonnes per annum for 23 years.
The mine went into “maintenance and care” in 2010. In the 2009 financial year CFMEU Mining and Energy received $8.1 million as an after tax profit distribution from the joint venture.
CFMMEU Mining and Energy stands to earn around a quarter of a billion dollars over the life of the project.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-29/united-wambo-approved-with-paris-climate-agreement-conditions/11460970
https://www.unitedproject.com.au/en/about-us/Pages/united-wambo-project.aspx
More stench.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/15/government-refuses-to-release-briefings-for-trouble-plagued-200m-regional-grants-program
Albo and Bill shorten doing a joint press statement.
https://iview.abc.net.au/show/abc-news-24/video/NS1413V001S00