Welcome to the penultimate instalment of the Call of the Board series (there will be one more dealing with the territories), wherein the result of last May’s federal election are reviewed in detail seat by seat. Previous episodes dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.
Today we look at Tasmania, which has long been noted as a law unto itself as far as federal electoral politics are concerned. The Liberals managed clean sweeps of the state amid poor national results in 1983 and 1984, and the state likewise went all-in for Labor at their losing elections in 1998 and 2001. The state’s form more recently, and especially last May, suggest a normalising trend – in this case, Labor’s defeats in the northern seats of Bass and Braddon were emblematic of their poor show in white, low-income regional Australia (and they can probably count themselves likely that Lyons wasn’t added to the list).
Conversely, another easy win for independent Andrew Wilkie in the central Hobart seat of Clark (formerly Denison) confirmed the uniquely green-left nature of that seat, while a predictable win for Labor in Franklin typified the party’s ongoing hold on low-income suburbia. It may be worth noting in all this that the state’s economic fortunes appear to be on an upswing, and that this coincides with one of its rare periods of Liberal control at state level. It’s tempting at this moment to speculate that the state has a big future ahead of it as a haven from climate change, with electoral implications as yet unforeseeable.
In turn:
Bass (LIBERAL GAIN 0.4%; 5.8% swing to Liberal): Bass maintained its extraordinary record with Labor’s defeat, changing hands for the eighth time out of ten elections going back to 1993. The latest victim of the curse of Bass was Ross Hart, who joins Labor colleagues Silvia Smith, Jodie Campbell and Geoff Lyons and Liberals Warwick Smith (two non-consecutive terms), Michael Ferguson and Andrew Nikolic on the roll call of one-term members. The only exception to the rule has been Michelle O’Byrne, who won the seat in 1998 and was re-elected in 2001, before losing out in 2004 and entering state politics in 2006. Labor also retained the seat in 2010, but their member at the time, Jodie Campbell, resigned after a single term.
Braddon (LIBERAL GAIN 3.1%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): Northern Tasmania’s other seat has been a slightly tougher nut for the Liberals since Sid Sidebottom ended 23 years of Liberal control in 1998, having been won for party since on three occasions: with Mark Baker’s win in 2004, as part of the famed forestry policy backlash against Labor under Mark Latham (who may have taken the episode to heart); with the heavy defeat of the Labor government in 2013, when it was won by former state MP Brett Whiteley; and now with Gavin Pearce’s win for the Liberals. Also in this mix was the Super Saturday by-election of July 28, 2018, at which the now-defeated Labor member, Justine Keay, was narrowly returned. Such was the attention focused on the Coalition’s weak result in the Queensland seat of Longman on the same day that few recognised what was a highly inauspicious result for Labor, whose 0.1% swing was notably feeble for an opposition party at a by-election. Much was made at that time of the performance of independent Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the by-election before failing to make an impression as a candidate for the Senate. Less was said about the fact that another independent, Craig Brakey, slightly exceeded Garland’s by-election result at the election after being overlooked for Liberal preselection. Both major parties were duly well down on the primary vote as compared with 2016, Liberal by 4.1% and Labor by 7.5%, but a much more conservative mix of minor party contenders translated into a stronger flow of preferences to the Liberals.
Clark (Independent 22.1% versus Labor; 4.4% swing to Independent): Since squeaking over the line at Labor’s expense after Duncan Kerr retired in 2010, independent Andrew Wilkie has been piling on the primary vote with each his three subsequent re-elections, and this time made it just over the line to a majority with 50.0%, up from 44.0% in 2016. This translated into a 4.4% increase in Wilkie’s margin over Labor after preferences. For what it’s worth, Labor picked up a 0.8% swing in two-party terms against the Liberals.
Franklin (Labor 12.2%; 1.5% swing to Labor): The tide has been flowing in Labor’s favour in this seat since Harry Quick seized it from the Liberals in 1993, which was manifested on this occasion by a 1.5% swing to Julie Collins, who succeeded Quick in 2007. This went against a national trend of weak results for Labor in outer suburbia, which was evidently only in that their primary vote fell by 2.9%. This was almost exactly matched by a rise in support for the Greens, whose 16.3% was the party’s second best ever result in the seat after 2010. The Liberals were down 4.0% in the face of competition from the United Australia Party, which managed a relatively strong 6.7%.
Lyons (Labor 5.2%; 1.4% swing to Labor): Demographically speaking, Lyons was primed to join the Liberal wave in low-income regional Australia. That it failed to do so may very well be down to the fact that the Liberals disassociated themselves mid-campaign with their candidate, Jessica Whelan, over anti-Muslim comments she had made on social media, and directed their supporters to vote for the Nationals. The Nationals duly polled 15.7%, for which there has been no precedent in the state since some early successes for the party in the 1920s. However, that still left them astern of Whelan on 24.2%. Labor member Brian Mitchell, who unseated Liberal one-termer Eric Hutchinson in 2016, was down 3.9% on the primary vote to 36.5%, but he gained 1.3% on two-party preferred after picking up around a quarter of the Nationals’ preferences. With a further boost from redistribution, he now holds a 5.2% margin after gaining the seat by 2.3% in 2016, but given the circumstances he will have a hard time matching that performance next time.
Mavis
Abbott then Turnbull then Morrison. We’ve really hit the jackpot with them, haven’t we!
Greensborough Growler @ #1390 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 12:02 pm
So, I think his next problem will be twofold:
1. Wresting control of the Centrelink response from the ‘cold, dead hands’ of the human embodiment of ‘Programmatic Specificity’, Stuart Robert, such that people can retain their human dignity and obtain enough money so that tent cities don’t get spread around the place where towns and cities used to be.
2. The supposed improved response to Climate Change that won’t cost anyone anything.
Poroti
Yes Wilson is, and knows how to win elections.
He even worked for Guiliani.
lizzie @ #1397 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 12:11 pm
Wouldn’t they be better off being given some fresh gum leaves? I read that they only take the water because they are starving, as well as thirsty.
So his important visit to India, now abandoned, coincided
with our cricket teams visit?
Player One @ #1393 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 12:11 pm
As I’ve suggested at 3,224 times so far, get a leader who connects with the punters and takes the fight up to Scrote, daily.
lizzie @ #1398 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 12:15 pm
Well, yes….what’s weird though is that Labor doesn’t really seem to mind that much.
And that leader is you, Mundo!
Step on up!
Bushfire Bill @ #1357 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 10:30 am
And the Ala Wai smeels like a sewer. Has for years.
Is Albo still telegraphing his media appearances. About 30 seconds and 30 um and ahs into the ABC going to Albo, he’s cut off for a Phil Spectre press conference.
mundo @ #1406 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 12:20 pm
It’s just too appalling for words, isn’t it? It is perhaps not too much to say that this is just symptomatic of the collapse of the Westminster system of government in this country. All politics and no policies. The government no longer governs, and the opposition no longer holds them to account.
GG, your excuse-making for Morrison is too complicated.
He could have contacted any number of discreet resorts right here in Australia and they’d have moved heaven and earth to accommodate a Prime Minister, particularly given that he had weeks advance notice of the need to change his plans.
If not resorts, then a connected Liberal grandee would have given over the South Coast holiday house for 10 days as easy as pie.
The need for urgency doesn’t hold water. The need for an overseas holiday is even more ridiculous.
And as for being taken by surprise by the bushfires, by early November he was in Wauchope kissing babies and ambush-hugging old gentlemen before you could say “Photo op!”.
The warnings being issued by then were dire.
ScoMo isn’t some schmuck with only the Daily Telegraph for his news source. As he is fond of telling us, he has real experts in disaster response, fire fighting, the military and meteorology advising him. He claimed he knew all about the potential for catastrophic fires TWO years ago, in 2018. That’s when he says all the plans were set (and it’s why he didn’t need to listen to the ex-Commissioners… he already knew what they were going to say, remember?).
His excuse making only looks “reasonable” if you don’t try to connect too many dots too far away from whatever-the-spin-is-today. He’s used the same set of excuses to both prove various scenarios, and to DISprove them, sometimes in the same interview. He’s blowin’ it out of his mouth, two ears, both nostrils, and his arsehole harder than Cyclone Tracey. While some of his excuses may stack up in isolation, taken together they’re nothing but piss and wind, making noise for the sake of it.
Seems to be weeks, months and years to play out for many to realise and comprehend what has really happened through these fires.
The non-compo and lack of support for both firies and for those who have lost lives, homes, businesses, as well as the environmental destruction and support for it will not be solved by an interview. There will be stark and subtle reminders to people in fire areas for ages of what has happened. A long slow process that will not be so easy to ignore or dismiss I think.
Seems if anything the only value of today, aside from Morrison supporting the Greens call for a RC, might be to fuel the fire within the Coal-ition civil war over climate change. Seems that SmoKo even just admitting to CC influence now and into the future might leave many of those RWNJ trying to run #itsthegreens and arsonists fault livid.
Seems to be some traction on the compo matters. When the locals in both LNP and Greens rural voting districts in SE Qld and NE NSW respectively are equally dismissive of the govt response for firies I am sure local members will be getting contact directly from their communities.
Charlie Cohen of the Nimbin RFS, quoted yesterday calling the compo scheme BS, would I’m sure be far more appreciative of the $26000 raised for local RFS crews involved in the Mt Nardi fire, from a new years gig and raffle supported by many local businesses. I’m sure there will be many communities who will work to see their local firies, friends and neighbours who have lost everything supported and not want any government to be let off the hook. Seems to me that people should get onto their local MP’s offices everywhere and pile on the pressure to not squib on anything or limit any enquiries.
I was on the phone to Kevin Hogans office last week about bushfires and CC action after he sent out an email all about arsonists, the Busbys Flat Rappville fire in his electorate being the only major fire in NSW that appears was not ignited by lightning. It seems they can’t ignore phone calls in the same way they seem to ignore emails. Sent out the usual shit sheet responses about CC we heard from Morrison et al, so I’ll get back onto his office next week. FWIW, despite a increase in PV for Kevin Hogan overall, almost entirely off a massive increase in PV in Grafton, that I think might’ve been due in large part to his involvement with the Grafton community post the Christchurch massacre actually. His vote in Nimbin in May was just over 6% down more than 2%, where Animal Justice got 9% and Greens over 48%.
Seems like ALP are trying to see which way the wind blows P1 and hope it doesn’t send the flames their way between now and whenever the next election might be. Instead of plotting a course and planning for action.
Having first actual cooler rainy day around here in I’m not sure how long, but many months.
C@t
Depends how many fresh gumleaves are available in that spot, I suppose. We don’t know if that koala was taken to a wildlife rescue, but it certainly knew what it wanted right then.
Fulvio Sammut @ #1405 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 12:22 pm
Only with you as my minder Flavio.
Victoria
So what he advocates is for the Democrats to follow the same recipe that delivers such arseholes as Bush and Trump. Great. Because such duplicity , bullshitting the public and bending the knee to the ‘oligarchs” required means such arseholes will win, only the party will change. It will warm the cockles of Richo’s heart.
lizzie:
[‘Abbott then Turnbull then Morrison. We’ve really hit the jackpot with them, haven’t we!’]
Yep – the Three Amigos (there you go FS) coming to mind, who were at least mildly funny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fw7p7tAdVuE
Going by that transcript, Albanese is ignoring the recommendations of the Weatherill-Emerson review by continuing to be ambiguous re climate/energy policy.
The fossil fuel lobby still have their parliamentary sock puppets front and centre.
C@tmomma @ #1402 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 12:18 pm
3. Managing his Party.
I thought an Omigo was a watch …
Bushfire Bill
Bingo. There would be a score(s) of such places. Unless he is in reality a “leper” within the party there would be a rush to offer a place for bragging rights to a “PM Slept At My House ” dinner story .
Interesting in the wake of the Morrison interview a number of news outlets have decided our PM is considering increasing our emissions reduction target.
I must have missed that part of his interview but the MSM has grabbed the meme with glee.
I now await with anticipation to see how long it takes the government to walk back from that so called “ announcement”.
The MSM is not doing Morrison any favours atm with their over egging of his response to the crisis re ADF support and the billions Morrison is going to spend helping victims and communities etc etc.
The lived experience will not meet the rhetoric re the above and now his apparent statement today , according to the MSM, that the government will consider reviewing emissions targets will only add to what will be a growing “ all talk no action “ meme around our PM.
Her Indoors and I are comfortably off, own our own house in a nice spot, and are fully insured.
But if the fires come through here suddenly we have no house, no possessions, no pleasant amenity to enjoy, and nowhere to stay except if we impose on friends.
Sure, we will have some savings to tide us over, but the insurance will take time to come through, and getting the house rebuilt will see us in a queue with thousands of others for company.
What DO you do when you have lost virtually everything? So many people are facing that reality today: the catastrophe of losing everything. Insurance money can’t always buy peace and happiness.
It will take years for NSW to recover from this, if it ever does.
Victoria @ #1403 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 12:18 pm
I wouldn’t be surprised if Rick Wilson came up with the line, ‘America’s Mayor’ for Giuliani.
You won’t need a minder Mundo, you have all the answers, as you’ve told us 3226 times.
Bushfire Bill @ #1412 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 12:24 pm
Mate, if you want to go in to long and detailed analysis of an issue that has passed it’s full impact resonation phase in the hope there is further gold to be gathered, fill your boots. I just think there are better opportunities with the “What Scotty did next!” phase.
I mean you don’t want to make a fool of yourself and live in the past do you?
Greensborough Growler @ #1420 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 12:31 pm
That was implicitly folded into #2. 🙂
[‘In the face of a bushfire catastrophe, our national conversation is still run by politics.’]:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-11/australia-bushfire-crisis-just-dont-mention-climate-change/11857590
Still, 100% politics is our Scotty from Marketing.
I wonder what the loss in the tax take will be from all the businesses affected by the fires, in all their multifarious ways?
I read this morning that George Pell has been moved to the infamous Barwon Prison where they house the most dangerous in our society.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/12/george-pell-reportedly-moved-to-regional-prison-after-drone-flown-over-melbourne-cbd-jail
Player One @ #1411 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 12:24 pm
Ah, I see the latest Epiffle from P1 has arrived.
BB
Many having no or insufficient insurance , many living where they were simply because they have limited financial means, it was affordable. To lose it all and the sfa chances of rebuilding for them would be truly crushing.
The notion that global warming, its causes, its consequences and its mitigation can possibly not be political is entertaining but not worth entertaining.
If people mean they want a bipartisan approach to the politics of global warming, they should say so.
C@tmomma @ #1427 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 12:40 pm
It needs to be explicit because the Deniers will be complicit in Morrison’s exit
How is Mr Palmer coming along with his donation for the post fire good of Australia?
Anywhere near $60 million?
Would it be really worth trying to rebuild in these bushfire areas when there will be a constant ongoing threat of more fires year after year after year.Also will the insurance companies insure these new properties with so much risk attached?
Boerwar
Has he paid his workers yet ? Fire victims might be at the back of a long and slow moving queue.
Yep. And on Sunday morning.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-11/australia-bushfire-crisis-just-dont-mention-climate-change/11857590
Player One @ #1396 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 9:11 am
Why would you release a policy now, that in two years time could be redundant.
Plus the relevant focus should be what the Government is doing, or not doing now, not what Labor might want to do in two years.
The PM Mr D’art De Pends is suggesting we are all moving toward a new normal and we will see how this plays out.
So Mr De Pends is not committing to anything as everything will be qualified by next few sets of polling which will determine anything of everything. Clear.Thank you.
It’s totally fair to say that if Morrison and Albanese still can’t commit to higher emissions reduction targets after these catastrophic fires then they are hopelessly and forever locked in to the fossil fuel lobby agenda.
Voters have no rational option other than to abandon the LibNats and Labor.
GG, I’m examining his excuses to show that there’s no recovery for ScoMo. That’s not past tense. That’s his future
He only has a limited pool of facts to draw from and so far he’s used them to argue that black is also white, as well as being black, blue, yellow and turquoise.
You can’t say you weren’t prepared for the fires and then say you were so well prepared that all the plans were drawn up years before, depending on which excuse you’re trying to trot out at any given moment.
Correction: you can say it, but you can’t expect the punters to believe you. Eventually it sinks in that you’re a bullshit artist. And remember, it’s only got to sink in two seats-worth and you’ve lost your majority. Four or five seats-worth and you’ve lost government.
ScoMo’s greatest achievement in life has been to bluff those who pay him into believing that he can do the job he’s being paid to do. In this he always shows initial success, followed by abject failure. In reality there has been no success at all, only the perception of it backed by the initial confirmation bias of his employers. When that confirmation bias turns to buyer’s remorse – usually as more and more of his colleagues (or voters) realise he thinks they’re idiots- he’s out on his arse.
Greensborough Growler @ #1431 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 12:47 pm
Feeling a little exposed are we? And perhaps just a little foolish?
There is a fair bit of moral panic being generated, some of it with a political purpose.
Some of the moral panic is being responded to with further moral panic, also with a political purpose.
The use of HMAS Adelaide (capital cost $1.5 billion, daily operational costs a motsa) to deliver water and diesel is an example. For taxpayers, that will be the most expensive water and diesel ever in the history of the Federation.
There are 9 million dwellings in Australia which would cost maybe $3 trillion to replace.
Around 2000 houses worth around a $1 billion need to be replaced – around .03% of the total value of the current value of Australia’s dwellings.
The number of dwelling completions are around 220,000 per annum.
The bushfires dwellings rebuild, to date, is less than 1% of the annual build.
For the individuals the loss of a house + contents is drastic and quite often traumatic.
For some towns/localities/regions that have lost significant numbers of dwellings, it also matters.
But on a national basis, we are looking at statistical noise.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1439 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 1:02 pm
Sure. Because releasing complex policies just before the election worked so well for you last time.
As I said – all politics, no policies.
Boerwar:
The smart thing for Mr Morrison to do would be to pretend to dig in whilst actuallly digging out, particularly since as Mr Trump has shown, so called “conservatives” will support anything at all as long as it’s packaged in the “right” rhetoric.
On the the other hand, as a Prime Minister he’s proven about as useful as a one-armed Morris Dancer, so it’s probably not reasonable to expect smart behaviour
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1439 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 1:02 pm
Nothing stopping Albanese from setting emissions reduction targets that can be increased if upon expert advice.
Also nothing stopping him from declaring Labors intent to transition away from thermal coal mining because it’s quite simply bad for the environment and economy as we are seeing with our own eyes.
Player One @ #1445 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 10:07 am
All emotion, no logic!
Caroline Overington in today’s Oz has some constructive criticism for Morrison.
It’s a long article, filled with examples of Morrison’s mistakes, plus advice he is unlikely to take.
I wonder if she has experienced loss, personally, in these fires. She is clearly not impressed with his performance.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/scott-morrisons-bushfires-troubles-all-of-his-own-making/news-story/0fcee8a9cfa7fcfc8243db7289a2fa77
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1448 Sunday, January 12th, 2020 – 1:10 pm
There’s clearly no logic in being ambiguous re climate/energy policy.