Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

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  3. For me I am against a blanket ban on GMO and Nuclear.

    -I am against farmers to not be able to save the seeds
    -I am against nuclear for reasons such as cost and a lack of supply of uranium that would be needed for large scale power generation.

  4. Poroti @7:18. ” People should start turning up to places where Morrison visits holding a lump of coal. No throwing but a bit of waving it around like he did in Parliament.”

    Definitely no throwing.

    Maybe placards with pictures of a lump of coal, or pictures of him in Parliament with a lump of coal.

    P.S. where is the lump of coal now? Is it next to the model boat (“I stopped these”), maybe with a caption like “I’m pushing this”? Or did he burn it on a cold Canberra night for warmth?

  5. catprog
    The En Zedders have a massive problem: one third of their economy depends on animals that spew out shed loads of methane. If they want to reach zero emissions they will have to teach their cows and sheep to stop emitting methane.
    But time is short. Too short.
    So, inter alia, the En Zedders are speed breeding super climate cattle using GMO techniques.
    I hope they get there, even if the Greens don’t cos GMO is bad.
    Even if Australia does stick to its methane-blasting 26 million cattle because they are OK because they are non-GMO, the owners of the billion cattle that are running around the rest of the world will snap up any useful En Zed GMO developments.

  8. zoomster says:
    Friday, January 3, 2020 at 7:07 pm
    nath

    ‘Ok so you dispute that groundwater extraction plays a role in landscape drying.’

    You’re shifting goalposts again.
    _________________________
    First the obsession with Albo, now with nath. I am sensing a pattern of behaviour here….

  9. Boerwar 7:37 pm

    If they can do it I am a big fan of it.

    But I do not believe they are GMO unless you can name the technique that they are using.

  11. A purpose built community fire and recovery shelter might stock long-life food, water, satellite comms, fuel, medical supplies, camping equipment, and so on. The purpose would be to provide safety during the emergency and then allow a community a short period of independence. Regular maintenance and restocking would need to occur, but ageing stock could pass into the community. Just thoughts about life in the “new normal”.

  17. Whoopsie. I have just been advised that a road 1.23 km from our house, as I just measured on Google, has been closed as a fire precaution.
    We’re capable of a ten minute notice departure as per the Fire Plan.
    We might just reduce that by a few minutes!

  27. I watched a catch up episode of The Crown today. It was on Aberfan, the colliery disaster in Wales where more than a hundred children were crushed to death by a coal slide.
    The Queen was very severely criticised for her under reaction and has described it as her biggest regret. It took years for Wales to forgive her.
    Couldn’t help but think of ScoMo and the bushfires.

  28. Watching a grab of that young woman who refused to shake Scotty’s hand.
    https://twitter.com/10NewsFirstQLD/status/1212948411919421441

    She sounds like she genuinely wanted a sit down with him and him turning and walking away from her just confirmed her suspicion that he wasn’t there to help them or even find out how they were doing, but just to get photos with locals and give the appearance he cared.

    What an incredible stuff up by Scotty and his team.

  29. Thanks guys but it is, IMO, an extreme precaution.

    It is a dead end road up to a look out and I believe they want to make sure they don’t have to deal with sight seers should the worst come to the worst.

  31. Blobbit @ #5880 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 4:22 pm

    “Astroblemesays:
    Friday, January 3, 2020 at 7:13 pm
    Blobbit

    Yeah given WA has lost 25% of rainfall we’ve done ok with regulations”

    More than just regulations. We’ve also done well with investment in infrastructure. Also look at home groundwater replenishment (1) has been introduced, with neither side claiming it’s going to kill is all.

    (1) pumping treated waste water back into the groundwater reservoir. In other places, it’s been jump on as making people drink sewage.

    What in reality has happened is that reality has caught up with politics in WA, and this has prevented destructive politics on the issue.

    When you’ve got permanent water restrictions, your two existing desalinisation plants running flat out 24/7 a third desalinisation plant underway and the only role your dams play in the supply of water is the storage of desalinised water, anyone arguing that we don’t need to take urgent measures to secure our water supply looks dangerously foolish.

  32. Starting to think there is a public attitude change occuring.

    Just returned from my local pub and Climate Change is suddenly an important issue for some self centered, white middle aged trogladytes. It’s all about we need to address the issue.

    Thire’s a movement going on.

  33. Boerwar

    Thanks guys but it is, IMO, an extreme precaution.

    It may 1-100 but spin the wheel of fortune often enough and you will hit the ‘jackpot’. Best not give it a spin

  35. I’ve just checked the RHS site and I assume that there are three fires they are worried about for the ACT. The first is the Batlow fire – maybe about 80-100km from the ACT border
    The second is the Palerang fire. Under control and contained for quite a while now. About 30-40 from the ACT border.
    The third is the Currawong fire which is about 80-100km from the ACT border – and for which the Palerang fire forms a fuel reduced fire break.

    The Batlow fire has now gone to emergency status so a lot will depend on wind direction. There is nothing but bush between the Batlow fire and the ACT. And if the wind gets up from that direction tomorrow, IMO, nothing much will stop it.

    That was also the general direction from which the 2003 fire came that burned 600 houses in the ACT.

  37. @Boerwar Friday, January 3, 2020 at 7:00 pm

    It is also extremely complicated to work out how much to charge for each item.

  39. ‘Player One says:
    Friday, January 3, 2020 at 8:36 pm

    Boerwar @ #5847 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 7:00 pm

    I am still not sure why some people are so resistant to even discussing this policy setting. It is not a trick. It is a good policy.

    Because it clearly favors C02 exporters at the expense of C02 importers.’

    It is a good policy. I am glad the Greens support it whole heartedly.

  41. “ There IS a policy that would have an immediate and dramatic impact on global CO emissions: putting a tarriff on embedded emissions imports. I leave it to the observer to speculate on why this is not a popular policy for the Greens to give priority to.”

    Not quite. We don’t want to leave loopholes so that carbon emitting domestic activities evade taxation. If we are going to be both effective and equitable on using economic levers to discourage harmful activities, we want everything taxed once but only once. So we could have a carbon tax on anything we produce here, and also a carbon tax on anything we import that has not already been taxed for carbon, or the difference if the rate of origin country carbon tax is less.

    Lets call it a Global Carbon Tax (GCT) or Global Warming Tax (GWT). Or it could be a Climate Change Levy (CCL) or a Carbon Emission Levy (CEL). That way each country can act effectively without being constrained by non-implementing countries. They give you a tax revenue opportunity.

    There is no need to use the revenue to subsidise transition because the renewable energy alternatives are now cheaper than Coal, unlike in Gillard’s day. So the revenue can be used to fund disaster relief, worker retraining, or even education. All these Treasurers talking of surpluses should be delighted.

  42. Lars
    There will inevitably be an inquiry of some sort into the bushfires, definitely a NSW one and maybe Vic. There’s still a lot of bushfire season to go and there is a lot of blame and fingerpointing. There are obviously a lot of angry fire chiefs. Lots of ways it could go. Gladys obviously doesn’t like ScoMo.

  43. “It is a good policy. I am glad the Greens support it whole heartedly.”
    It’s been their policy forever…
    Pretty sure the CPRS was a compromise position, that’s why there was the fixed price period.

  44. Greensborough Growler @ #5938 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 5:41 pm

    Boerwar @ #5936 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 8:38 pm

    GG
    That’s a hopeful sign.

    No guarantees it changes their voting patterns. But, it is certainly a surprising development.

    Let’s hope it’s a permanent change and not just a current talking point. It should definitely be encouraged.

    If it is permanent then perhaps Morison and his bunch of miscreants may have actually done something positive for the cause, albeit unwittingly. I just hope the bastards don’t try and spin it to make it seem like a deliberate policy shift.

  45. Boerwar (and other Canberra PBers)

    You may be interested in this news item reporting on the likely ACT situation tomorrow as advised by ACT ESA.

    The ‘good’ news for the citizen household is that our suburb and another in the far south of Canberra are considered first in line if the Gunns Road fire moves across the Kosciuszko and Namadgi National Parks. While the fire front is still about 100km away, the ESA is preparing for the worst tomorrow and all ACT crews have returned from NSW. The ESA are door knocking our suburb but we haven’t been visited yet.

    https://www.facebook.com/140244276016408/posts/3619023234805144/

  46. Confessions @ #5940 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 8:45 pm

    GG:

    As grimace said, there comes a time when being smacked in the face with reality will change minds.

    Probably true. But these guys are property millionaires primarily focussed on transferring their wealth to the next generation without impediment.

    Could be a passing phase once the details of personal sacrifice are revealed. But, as I said, I haven’t seen such a movement before.

  47. The basics of the CPRS were quite effective, as the subsequent reduction in emissions with no adverse impact on the economy proved. In hindsight the only problem was the free credits given to producers, which should not be repeated, especially since those producers all stabbed Labor in the back afterwards anyway.

    Carbon trading, internationally or otherwise, does not work, as it relies too much on the honesty of the producer. Carbon prices do work.

  49. If the dark forces haven’t yet attempted to deride former (FRNSW) Mullins, it’s only a matter of time. What cancer on the Australian polity has been the Murdoch males? – almost as insidious as the Packers, after turning Tory, to enrich their empire – that going as well as a Shakespearian tragedy.

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