Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.
The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.
The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).
Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.
Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.
Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).
GG/Confessions
“ As grimace said, there comes a time when being smacked in the face with reality will change minds.”
Further to that, this disaster will probably impact on rural property values, and the ability to get insurance for some properties. That will affect the property barons.
GG:
There’s also the sheer emotional, human element to these fires. People have died and in Victoria there are still something like nearly 30 people unaccounted for. I hope this is a tide that is turning, however.
@ Confessions & GG,
We’ve only had half a smack in the face, the prevailing attitude to our water problems is that we’ll just build another desal plant. When the Alkimos desal plant is complete we’ll be getting ~75% of our water from desalination.
Socrates @ #5951 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 8:55 pm
These guys are people who bought for $150k and their properties are now valued at $1.5K. Your point is OK. But not valid in this situation.
Any word on when the NSW Emergency Services minister will return from o/s?
I bet he has planned it either late at night or early morning ( after curfew lifts ) to avoid media
“What in reality has happened is that reality has caught up with politics in WA, and this has prevented destructive politics on the issue.”
Well yes. I don’t really disagree with that. I guess my point was that neither side has ever tried to make it a point scoring political issue, which I understand hasn’t been the case in other places.
Soc
There is an article in today’s Business Section of The Australian headed ‘Natural Disasters Fuel ‘Crazy’ Insurance Premiums.
Grimace
Remember ,not too many years ago, the local lib yokels where chucking
crap at Labor over the “mothballed” desal plant ? At least they learnt quickly. Their Canberra brethren probably wouldn’t.
Boerwar @ #5939 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 8:41 pm
I don’t know about the Greens policies. But if C02 exports are taken into account as well as imports, I guess it would be fairer than trivial territorial-based accounting.
Just tell me – under your scheme, would Australia still be the third biggest C02 exporting nation on earth after Saudi Arabia and Russia?
Or would we perhaps drop down a position or two?
Yay, Australia! Punching above its weight again
The monsoon is starting to act normal. The IOD and SAM are back to neutral.
If the next two Autumn and Spring breaks are anything like near normal these fires will be a distant memory for most folk.
IMO, what will count is whether the increase in personal wealth continues to rise for most Australians.
Our rellies are on HMS Choules and will be debarking at, they think, Stony Point.
20 hours of luxury cruising on the taxpayer. How good is that?
Getting their vehicle back from Mallacoota is going to be interesting!
I don’t recall any of WA’s plants being mothballed. Binningup phase 1 was underway before Kwinana was finished, and Binningup phas 2 started before phase 1 was finished.
If it wasn’t for desal we would have run out of water, thus the rapid build.
He must be having trouble finding a seat on a plane. It was a problem for a certain PM also. Either that or he has taken the scenic route back home.
Bert @ #5948 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 8:53 pm
Yes. I think the problem may be that this thread is just getting too long.
William – any chance of a new thread?
Giving countries like the UK a free kick because they have exported their coal burning to places like China is poor policy, IMO.
As for the UK, so for Australia.
Australian consumption prices should be directly linked back to those who burn the coal.
If the latter want to pass the cost along to their coal suppliers, that would be excellent as well.
All good!
citizen @ #5963 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 9:06 pm
If Gladys is astute, she’ll sack him up front.
The delay in his return is all about the DEAL.
About half a century ago we were driving to the NT for our new careers. Our car was to go by rail from SA to Darwin.
In the upshot the general floods were so bad that we had to abandon our car in South Oz, and fly to Nhulunby.
It took us six months to get our car back. Less than six months after that same car spent Cyclone Tracey on the wharf in Darwin.
It took months before we were allowed back in just to pick the car up and drive it out.
Tried to amend my previous post, to no avail. It should say “C02 exporting” not “C02 emitting”.
GG
I was thinking about. The fly in that ointment is that she probably gave him permission to travel…
… whatever.
Good night all. I trust that we shall all survive until at least the morrow.
Boerwar @ #5969 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 9:12 pm
They declared an emergency situation in anticipation of his return.
Elliott was supposed to be back this morning. Can’t wait to hear the excuses!
Grimace
It was the Kwinana one. Several Libs expressed views like this wally .
—————————————————-
Perth Water Users
Starting in mid-2004 we are concerned that current WA Government water policies which are focused unwisely on a $500 million (allows for cost over runs etc on top of $350Mill announced) proposal to build a grossly extravagant desalination plant at Kwinana, will fail to best serve the interests of Perth people. Just remember who is paying for the “White Elephant”.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/pwu/
Boerwar:
Yes, hope there are no dramas overnight.
Confessions @ #5972 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 9:15 pm
I’m hopeful that even the voters of NSW will be aghast at an Emergency Minister that is on holidays during the biggest emergency in NSW history.
Astrobleme:
I’m not sure where else this occurring, but here the debates seems wholly to be about whether Adani Galilee (one currently non-extant mine in Australia) not supplying coal would impact coal prices.
The answer is that IF the (allegedly corrupt) Adani electricity supply arrangement is both actually corrupt as it is believe to be (a question of Law) AND IF SO is not dissolved (a matter for Indian courts, who are actively interested in pursing corrupt both in relation to coal and in relation to electricity) THEN the Stopping of Adani Galilee will have no predictable effect on coal prices.
This is becuase the (apparent) effect of the (alleged) corruption in the Adani Galilee arrangement is sufficiently large as to render price information irrelevant (this works in both directions, though perhaps Dandy Murray has some more detail)
Amy tries to piece together where the bloody hell Morrison has been in recent days.
GG
Jack the Insider in his article said he has to resign asap and if not Gladys should sack him and if she doesn’t then it shows her grip on power is not very strong. So we shall see tomorrow what is what.
“I don’t recall any of WA’s plants being mothballed. Binningup phase 1 was underway before Kwinana was finished, and Binningup phas 2 started before phase 1 was finished.”
Nope, with the massive decrease in streamflow in SW W.A. since 1975 they run all they can get 365 / 24 /7 and wear the expense of pumping uphill into dams. I wonder a bit as to why they dont pump the desal into the aquifers as there is a lot of infrastructure to draw from those already in place??
Maybe that will happen as the injection of treated water from recycling expands?
Recycling policy here vs rest of the country makes me smile. 🙂 I remember in the last drought they had some kind of referendum in Towoomba where wast water recycling was knocked back. Apparently the politics of that was local and nasty. I think the Water Authority here learned from that, brought in recycling here quietly, proved their concept, and so its now accepted as simply a rational response and the “new normal”. Also cant quite understand other states water restrictions being imposed so late in the game, but again, water restrictions here (Sprinklers 2 days /week ) have been the norm for so long they are, well….normal.
Politically i am wondering where food prices will go in the next few months with the agricultural production hits from drought, fire losses, and transport / distribution problems from the fires??
BW,
Luxury cruising? Are they all being given access to the officers’ mess?
Or perhaps Officers’ Galley on a ship?
Greensborough Growler @ #5974 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 6:20 pm
It’s outrageous really.
“$500 million (allows for cost over runs etc on top of $350Mill announced) proposal to build a grossly extravagant desalination plant at Kwinana, will fail to best serve the interests of Perth people. ”
Lol! You don’t hear a sqeek from this type any more. Bit like the Perth – Mandurah rail line. 🙂
imacca
I suspect a price ‘horror’. Veggie prices seem to have been ramping up at the local IGA for a few weeks.
poroti @ #5978 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 9:21 pm
The worst thing that Gladys can do here is blink.
Confessions @ #5972 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 9:15 pm
It was the layover in Hawaii that delayed him.
imacca
Oh yeah, for some reason it was total ‘crickets’ from them after it did some bacon saving in very short order. 😆
Thanks Poroti
poroti says:
Friday, January 3, 2020 at 9:29 pm
imacca
Oh yeah, for some reason it was total ‘crickets’ from them after it did some bacon saving in very short order.
_________
Same outcome with the S.A battery it seems.
BW
How was your car going to get to Darwin by rail in 1969?
Bert @ #5948 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 8:53 pm
I have no problem with Firefox or Chrome on desktop.
Maybe clear cache will fix the problem.
GG
Politically it could play out pretty well for her if she sacks him ASAP. At least among the public.Bonus, no down side on the operations as they have been without him for a while.
Other than “four legs good, two legs bad” why are people on PB attacking Gladys. She seems to be doing all the leadership bits so obviously lacking in ScoMo’s performance. Sacking Elliott tomorrow will confirm her leadership.
“Apparently the politics of that was local and nasty.”
Indeed. That’s why I think for once both parties here deserve some credit. In the main neither party, and certainly none of the respective leaders, have tried to make water a political issue.
Whether water restrictions, recycling or desal, both sides have let the Water Corp get on with it. And the Water Corp has been pretty upfront saying it’s due to climate change.
Even the terrible West Australian newspaper had let this issue alone.
poroti @ #5991 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 9:37 pm
Lib internals is the problem .But, there is always someone to fill the void.
Oakeshott Country @ #5992 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 9:38 pm
She’s been playing catch up all the way through. She agreed to having n key Minister away when it actually happened. She’s also been very underwhelming with her public performance.
Ultimately, she owns the poor decisions.
Oakeshott Country
That’s what we are “cheering her on to do”. Sack the blighter.
The main problem in NSW at least, was that the RFS had inadequate resources to put the small fires out. So they worked on ‘containing’ them, back burns, grading Fire breaks, letting them burn themselves out. And then the weather turned, and the small fires became big fires. And here we are.
I figure there must be some logistical reasons why we don’t have a fleet of these to bombard the crap out of any small fire.
https://youtu.be/_5LKF8G5huw
Oakshott Country
Re BW’s car in 1969
Train to Alice Springs on the old Central Australia Railway (CAR) then by truck to Larrimah and then on the old North Australia Railway (NAR) to Darwin.
I’ve seen Berejiklian’s media appearances today and yesterday and my view is that she has definitely improved. I agree with others that she should sack Elliott, but I doubt she’ll do it tomorrow. More likely wait until the emergency is over and then move him on.
Victoria has had a much shorter season but more deaths and 4000 people trapped on a beach. Looks like a much worse result to me but then again “four legs good, two legs bad”