Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.
The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.
The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).
Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.
Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.
Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).
Greens have called for Carbon taxes in the past
https://greens.org.au/vic/news/media-release/treasurer-should-include-carbon-tax-tax-white-paper-greens
There is some excitement across the Tasman where the En Zedders are investing some serious money into demethaning their ovines and their bovines.
One massive investment will be to breed hot climate cows that don’t emit methane while requiring less effort to keep cool and produce lots of milk.
For example, getting their coat colour and coat hair right would have a significant impact.
Working over their guts fauna has the potential to do something serious about methane generation.
Mass production of red seaweed is most promising.
But there is a rub.
Such super cows would not be allowed into Australia under current Australian Greens policies.
I wonder whether any Greens supporter can tell me why that might be?
Hint: it is all there in black and white in the Greens policies but one does have to join the dots.
We’ve just had the ‘good’ news that our suburb and another in the far south of Canberra are first in line if the Gunns Road fire moves across the Kosciuszko and Namadgi National Parks. While the fire front is still about 100km away, the ACT ESA is preparing for the worst tomorrow and all ACT crews have returned from NSW. The ESA are door knocking but we haven’t been visited yet.
Info at https://www.facebook.com/140244276016408/posts/3619023234805144/ (Genevive Jacobs , ex ABC presenter with an update two hours ago.)
@Boerwar at 7:00pm
How much of a tarrif would go on a
-Westen Digital 500GB Hard Drive
-Seagate 500GB Hard Drive
-Toshiba 500GB Hard Drive
Each one of these emitted a different amount of CO2 and thus will have a different tariff cost.
Astrobleme
Excellent. Is there any particular reason why Di Natale should not now be calling on one million Greens to behave economically as if there were such a tariff in place?
Groundwater is complicated. Add I understand it, here in WA the issue is with shallow groundwater extraction by garden bores and the like. Deeper extraction for general scheme water supply had been done pretty responsibly.
The Watercorp had actually done a pretty damn good job, given the changing climate. And credit to both sides of politics, neither has made the issue a political football.
https://www.begroundwaterwise.wa.gov.au/
@Boerwar at 7:04 pm
Well it can’t be because of their GMO policy as the Greens as fine with selective breeding.
nath
‘Ok so you dispute that groundwater extraction plays a role in landscape drying.’
You’re shifting goalposts again.
‘Catprog says:
Friday, January 3, 2020 at 7:06 pm
@Boerwar at 7:00pm
How much of a tarrif would go on a
-Westen Digital 500GB Hard Drive
-Seagate 500GB Hard Drive
-Toshiba 500GB Hard Drive
Each one of these emitted a different amount of CO2 and thus will have a different tariff cost.’
Thanks. I would set tariffs on two measures. The first is on how much CO2 was emitted in the manufacture, packing and transport of each hard drive. The second is on how much power each hard drive uses once in operation.
@Boerwar at 7:00pm
How much of a tarrif would go on a
-Westen Digital 500GB Hard Drive
-Seagate 500GB Hard Drive
-Toshiba 500GB Hard Drive
Which is why the simplest thing to do is to have a carbon price at the source. That allows the cost to be passed up the supply chain.
zoomster
says:
Friday, January 3, 2020 at 7:07 pm
nath
‘Ok so you dispute that groundwater extraction plays a role in landscape drying.’
You’re shifting goalposts again.
_______________________
Well that was my addition to Rex’s post. So what goalposts am I shifting? Or did you just stumble down another alley and humiliate yourself again and yet again revert to ‘goalposts’?
Surface water – Groundwater interactions are complicated…
Is Zoomster talking about soil moisture?
I guess the biggest impact to soil moisture is obviously rain,
But if you drop the water table vegetation becomes more dependent on soil moisture. This will deplete very rapidly in drought. Ground water can help offset drought.
‘Catprog says:
Friday, January 3, 2020 at 7:07 pm
@Boerwar at 7:04 pm
Well it can’t be because of their GMO policy as the Greens as fine with selective breeding.’
You got it but you also got it a little bit back to front.
The Australian Greens policy is to immediately withdraw ALL GMOs from the environment.
The really big smash from this particular policy would be on the Australian cotton industry which is GMO-based. This policy alone virtually ensures that the Greens can wave goodbye to the regional seats.
Plus, unfortunately, we would not be able to upgrade our dairy herd using superior GMO NZ breeding stock.
Boerwar
Are you trying the hypocrisy argument again?
Can you admit that you were wrong that the Greens don’t support demand side controls?
Blobbit
Yeah given WA has lost 25% of rainfall we’ve done ok with regulations
I see that 10-20 thousand stock are probably going to have to be shot in the Corryong area.
My FIL, who was then ran around a thousand sheep and some beef cattle, had to shoot most of them after one fire. The ones he did not have to shoot were already dead.
He said it was one of the worst things he had ever had to do in his life.
@Boerwar 7:07 pm
1) so we now have a Australian government department looking at the manufacture, packing and transport of each product being sold in Australia?
2)Why does the amount of power each hard drive use matter for the hard drive tarrif? Just put a price on the power generator.
Boerwar 7:10 pm
Cotton is water-intensive, so with the limited water supplies this is a good thing.
Except the cows are not GMO but selectivity bred
And yet again when Boerwar can’t find support for his current brainfart he changes the topic…
‘Astrobleme says:
Friday, January 3, 2020 at 7:12 pm
Boerwar
Are you trying the hypocrisy argument again?
Can you admit that you were wrong that the Greens don’t support demand side controls?’
I suggest that if you don’t want to answer a very straight forward question you could just say so. Responding with rhetorical questions of your own is not actually answering the question.
Astrobleme @ #5851 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 7:02 pm
😆
Carlton
Just a warning. Even if you show Boerwar documents showing the cows aren’t GMO, he will continue to argue they are. Because that’s how he argues… It doesn’t matter if he’s wrong in fact, if it’s something he can hash the Greens with he prefers the fiction.
People should start turning up to places where Morrison visits holding a lump of coal. No throwing but a bit of waving it around like he did in Parliament.
Catprog
1. yes.
2. If the Greens want to destroy the Australian cotton industry because of issues related to water, they should say so in their policy statement.
3. If the Greens want to destroy the Australian cotton industry because of issues related to GMOs, they should say so in their policy statement.
IMO, there are many relevant considerations – including the wholesale destruction of many regional economies.
Hiding behind a blanket ban on GMOs without being upfront about the immediate and massive consequences is, IMO, poor policy and deceptive policy.
Sorry that shouldnbe Catprog. Darn auto correct
‘poroti says:
Friday, January 3, 2020 at 7:18 pm
People should start turning up to places where Morrison visits holding a lump of coal. No throwing but a bit of waving it around like he did in Parliament.’
It would be hard to spot, given the background colour tones.
I assume that Mr Abbott has spent many, many hours on the fire front with his RHS unit. Good on him, I say.
Boerwar @ 7:19 pm
1) How much it is going to cost to find out the CO2 of every product in the Australian market?
Boerwar
Well it was a stupid question, so I didn’t think it needs a response. I don’t even really understand what you meant. Would Greens be paying more for things voluntarily? Is that how it would work?
Boerwar @ #5867 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 7:14 pm
Literally a nightmare situation.
It’s a risk that livestock producers take on from the outset though.
“Astroblemesays:
Friday, January 3, 2020 at 7:13 pm
Blobbit
Yeah given WA has lost 25% of rainfall we’ve done ok with regulations”
More than just regulations. We’ve also done well with investment in infrastructure. Also look at home groundwater replenishment (1) has been introduced, with neither side claiming it’s going to kill is all.
(1) pumping treated waste water back into the groundwater reservoir. In other places, it’s been jump on as making people drink sewage.
Boerwar says:
I’m not sure how that can be calculated in practice. For example, how will you know if a particular hard drive is transported by electric or diesel truck? How will you know what the power source was for the individual factory, and how much of that was sourced from non-carbon sources?
You are also potentially double counting if you include the transport of the drive – won’t the ship or plane transporting the drive also be subject to taxes on its fuel.
Far better I think to tax closer to the point of emission.
Morrison currently being interviewed on A Current Affair
I’ve been thinking about community fire shelters. Is it possible or smart to build such a thing?
I worked on Groote Eylandt several decades ago, sleeping in barracks attached to a cyclone shelter. It was ready to shelter people in an emergency but used 24/7 as a rec centre. Could something like that be built to withstand fires. Most of the time it would simply be a community centre, but would allow people to shelter from immediate danger and provide a base to help recovery.
Is this practical though? Are there better approaches?
Bloody Greens when will they start campaigning for people to transition to a more environmentally friendly lifestyle ??
For those who missed this interview as posted this morning. Thanks to whoever it was. It is really worth listening to.
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/sydney/programs/breakfast/greg-mullins-bushfires/11839122
Victoria @ #5883 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 7:24 pm
Another trainwreck ?
Rex
Darn hypocrites! Refusing to be eco friendly and demanding everyone else do it…
‘Astrobleme says:
Friday, January 3, 2020 at 7:18 pm
Carlton
Just a warning. Even if you show Boerwar documents showing the cows aren’t GMO, he will continue to argue they are. Because that’s how he argues… It doesn’t matter if he’s wrong in fact, if it’s something he can hash the Greens with he prefers the fiction.’
The Super Climate Cows that the En Zedders are breeding are being bred using GMO techniques in order to speed up the selection outcomes. Fact. Astrobleme has declared that this is a fiction.
As for the Australian Greens policies on withdrawing all GMOs, it is in their policy statement. That is a fact. This would have a smashing impact on the cotton industry and many regional economies. That is a fact. Refusing to import Kiwi super climate cows because they are GMO-bred would also become a fact.
Happy to discuss any of these facts. Not all that happy to put up with generic character assassinations by Astroblame when s/he runs into intellectual difficulties and/or facts. And that is a fact.
Late Riser 7:24 pm
I can’t see any problems , but it would need to be planned well. (Although the plans could be the same everywhere)
I love how SmoCo says he’s not offended, because the heckling wasn’t personal. It was just that his hecklers were upset.
In other words: not his fault. It was THEIR fault they didn’t like him in their town.
Blobbit
Yeah they kept it quiet and non-political
Rex Douglas
The host asked Morrison if he had been working on getting assistance from overseas for equipment etc and he gave a one word answer. Yes.
It was obvious he was bullshitting
‘Late Riser says:
Friday, January 3, 2020 at 7:24 pm
I’ve been thinking about community fire shelters. Is it possible or smart to build such a thing?
I worked on Groote Eylandt several decades ago, sleeping in barracks attached to a cyclone shelter. It was ready to shelter people in an emergency but used 24/7 as a rec centre. Could something like that be built to withstand fires. Most of the time it would simply be a community centre, but would allow people to shelter from immediate danger and provide a base to help recovery.
Is this practical though? Are there better approaches?’
Larger towns de facto tend to have facilities that can be used for the purposes. Smaller rural and remote towns would probably need one purpose built. With a bit of imagination they could be multi-purpose community centres… a bit like, … um… school halls.
Boerwar 7:26 pm
And what techniques would these be?
Are you saying that policies cannot be changed?
Apparently Morrison got a good welcome when he visited relief centres in Victoria today.
Boerwar if you can show me they’re GMO I’ll be happy to acknowledge it.
I’m nota fan off the Greens GMO or nuclear policies.
‘Bushfire Bill says:
Friday, January 3, 2020 at 7:28 pm
I love how SmoCo says he’s not offended, because the heckling wasn’t personal. It was just that his hecklers were upset.
In other words: not his fault. It was THEIR fault they didn’t like him in their town.’
100% correct! Not only that but they are getting ’emotional’, ergo, not rational.
His reaction to the angry people sounds pretty much like a “what……..EVA”
‘Astrobleme says:
Friday, January 3, 2020 at 7:29 pm
Boerwar if you can show me they’re GMO I’ll be happy to acknowledge it.’
It is the Greens policy. Let the Greens (a) read their own policies (b) do their own research on research on the horrible consequences of their policy.
You will just have realized that one of the things most Greens supporters do not do is actually read Greens policies and figure out what the real world consequences are. And you certainly will not hear Di Natale on the topic.