10:05am Wednesday December 18: A post-election YouGov poll of over 40,000 respondents has the startling finding that low-income people voted Tory by greater margins than high-income people. The Tories won the middle class (ABC1) by 43-33 and the working class (C2DE) by 48-33 (44-40 and 44-42 respectively in 2017). The Tories won those with the lowest educational attainment by 58-25 (55-33 in 2017). Labour won those with the highest educational attainment 43-29 (49-32 in 2017).
3:25pm Saturday: Conversation article up. I believe a major cause for the bad Labour loss was its Brexit policy, but another important difference from 2017 was real wage growth: -0.5% before the 2017 election vs +1.7% in the latest available data. People are only willing to vote for left-wing policies if they are not doing well financially. There’s also US politics stuff in that article.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at The University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
7:50am Saturday: The Conservatives HELD St Ives overnight with an increased majority over the Lib Dems. Final seat numbers are 365 Tories (up 47), 203 Labour (down 59), 48 SNP (up 13) and 11 Lib Dems (down one). I will have a write-up for The Conversation later today.
7:10pm Most polls had the Tory lead over Labour at nine to 12 points; the final result will be 11.5 points, so most polls were about right. Survation, Ipsos, Opinium and Kantar had the Tory lead at either 11 or 12 points, and are the best pollsters. The worst were ComRes (just a five point lead) and ICM (six points).
7:03pm How the Britain Elects Poll Tracker compares to the actual results excluding Northern Ireland. William Bowe has said the two majors were too high in the polls, but most UK polls exclude Northern Ireland.
The Britain Elects poll tracker (vs. the GB election result):
CON: 43.1% (44.7)
LAB: 33.9% (33.1)
LDEM: 11.9% (11.8)
BREX: 3.3% (2.1)
GRN: 2.6% (2.8)https://t.co/pHAmhckPls#QuiteSmug— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
6:13pm: In Northern Ireland, the DUP won eight of the 18 seats (down two), Sinn Fein seven (no change), the Social Democratic Labour Party two and the Alliance Party one. Vote shares were 30.6% DUP, 22.8% Sinn Fein, 16.8% Alliance and 14.9% SDLP. So the Alliance got only one seat on 17% vote.
5:57pm: Final Scotland results: SNP 48 of 59 seats (up 13), Tories six (down seven), Lib Dems four (no change), Labour one (down six). Vote shares: SNP 45.0% (up 8.1%), Tories 25.1% (down 3.5%), Labour 18.6% (down 8.5%) and Lib Dems 9.5% (up 2.8%).
4:52pm: With 13 seats to go, the Tories have 355 seats, Labour 202, the SNP 48 and the Lib Dems ten.
4:33pm: Another ex-Tory gets pummelled
South West Hertfordshire: Con HOLD
CON: 49.6% (-8.3)
IND (Gauke): 26.0%
LAB: 11.8% (-13.9)
LDEM: 10.2% (-1.5)
GRN: 2.4% (-0.2)Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
4:24pm Labour has got to 200 seats with 37 left for the whole UK.
4:20pm: With all 40 Welsh seats declared, Labour won 22 (down six), the Tories 14 (up six) and Plaid Cymru four (no change). Vote shares were 40.9% Labour (down 8.0%) and 36.9% Tories (up 2.5%).
4:16pm: With 41 seats still to be declared, the Tories have passed the majority mark (326 seats), and are now up to 335 seats.
4:11pm: Another not-great tactical voting, with the Tories HOLDING Finchley with 44%, the Lib Dems second with 32% and Labour 3rd with 24%.
Finchley and Golders Green: Con HOLD
CON: 43.8% (-3.2)
LDEM: 31.9% (+25.3)
LAB: 24.2% (-19.6)Swing: -3.2
Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
3:36pm Tories GAIN Kensington from Labour by just 0.3% because the Lib Dems took 21%. Additional note: Some polls in this seat put the Lib Dems ahead of Labour, so tactical voting plans were confused.
Kensington: Con GAIN
CON: 38.3% (-3.9)
LAB: 38.0% (-4.2)
LDEM: 21.3% (+9.1)
GRN: 1.2% (-0.8)
BREX: 0.9% (+0.9)Swing: Lab to Con (+0.2)
Turnout: 67.7%
Full results: https://t.co/wVfQPUtvng #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
3:22pm: Ex-Tory Dominic Grieve LOSES his seat to the Tories.
Beaconsfield: Con HOLD
CON: 56.1% (-9.2)
IND (Grieve): 29.0%
LAB: 9.9% (-11.5)
GRN: 3.5% (+1.0)
IND (Cleary): 1.4%Turnout: 74.5%
Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019Dominic Grieve fails to keep his seat.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
3:12pm: In Leave seats, Labour lost votes directly to the Tories and Brexit party. In Remain seats, the Lib Dems often split part of the vote, and anyway there aren’t enough Remain seats in the UK.
3:09pm With 424 of 650 seats declared, the Tories have 220 (up 32), Labour 146 (down 44), the SNP 35 (up 12) and the Lib Dems seven (no change). The Tories have a 42.6% to 33.5% lead over Labour with 10.7% for the Lib Dems. On a matched seat basis, Labour is down 8.3%.
2:54pm: Lib Dems miss out in Wimbledon; Labour had too many votes.
Wimbledon: Con HOLD
CON: 38.4% (-8.1)
LDEM: 37.2% (+22.7)
LAB: 23.7% (-11.9)
IND (Hadley): 0.7%Swing: -8.1
Turnout: 77.7%
Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
2:52pm Socialist Laura Pidcock LOSES her seat
North West Durham: Con GAIN
CON: 41.9% (+7.4)
LAB: 39.5% (-13.3)
BREX: 6.7% (+6.7)
LDEM: 5.9% (-1.2)
IND (Stelling): 2.6%Swing: Lab to Con (+10.3)
Turnout: 66.0%
Full results: https://t.co/wVfQPUtvng #GE2019Laura Pidcock out.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
2:50pm: Jo Swinson LOSES her seat to the SNP
East Dunbartonshire: SNP GAIN
SNP: 37.1% (+6.8)
LDEM: 36.8% (-3.8)
CON: 14.1% (-0.5)
LAB: 9.1% (-5.4)
GRN: 1.7% (+1.7)Swing: LD to SNP (+5.3)
Turnout: 80.3%
Full results: https://t.co/JTwGgUwy13 #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
2:47pm: Boris Johnson easily HOLDS his seat.
Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Con HOLD
CON: 52.6% (+1.8)
LAB: 37.6% (-2.4)
LDEM: 6.3% (+2.4)
GRN: 2.3% (+0.4)
UKIP: 0.6% (-2.8)Swing: +1.8
Turnout: 68.5%
Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
2:46pm: Really UGLY result for Labour in Bassetlaw
Bassetlaw: Con GAIN
CON: 55.2% (+11.9)
LAB: 27.7% (-24.9)
BREX: 10.6% (+10.6)
LDEM: 6.6% (+4.4)Swing: Lab to Con (+18.4)
Turnout: 63.5%
Full results: https://t.co/wVfQPUtvng #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
2:41pm: Labour loses Tony Blair’s old seat of Sedgefield.
Sedgefield: Con GAIN
CON: 47.2% (+8.4)
LAB: 36.3% (-17.1)
BREX: 8.5% (+8.5)
LDEM: 4.7% (+2.8)
GRN: 2.4% (+0.8)Swing: Lab to Con (+12.8)
Turnout: 64.6%
Full results: https://t.co/wVfQPUtvng #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
2:35pm: Corbyn easily holds Islington N, but has announced he will resign as Labour leader.
Islington North: Lab HOLD
LAB: 64.3% (-8.7)
LDEM: 15.6% (+6.6)
CON: 10.2% (-2.3)
GRN: 8.0% (+3.9)
BREX: 1.4% (+1.4)Swing: -8.7
Turnout: 71.6%
Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn back.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
2:32pm: Lib Dems GAIN a seat from SNP in Scotland
North East Fife: LD GAIN
LDEM: 43.1% (+10.2)
SNP: 40.2% (+7.3)
CON: 13.0% (-11.1)
LAB: 3.7% (-5.9)Swing: SNP to LD (+1.4)
Turnout: 75.3%
Full results: https://t.co/TxsLgj4D4d #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
2:29pm: Overall, with 281 of 650 seats declared, the Tories have 140 seats (up 25), Labour 104 (down 31), the SNP 20 (up seven) and the Lib Dems five (down one). Labour’s vote is down 8.1%, with the Tory vote up 1.8%.
2:20pm: In Wales, Labour has lost five seats to the Tories after 27 of 40 declared. Labour’s vote is down 9.6% with the Tories up 3.6% and Brexit taking 6.6%.
2:16pm Scottish results so far are SNP all 17 seats declared, with the Tories and Labour losing three seats each.
2:06pm: Here’s one that could have gone to a non-Tory with preferential voting.
Cities of London and Westminster: Con HOLD
CON: 39.9% (-6.7)
LDEM: 30.7% (+19.7)
LAB: 27.2% (-11.2)
GRN: 1.7% (-0.4)
OTH: 0.3% (+0.3)Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019
Chuka Umunna fails.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
1:59pm: With 175 of 650 seats in, Labour has lost a net 19 seats, the Tories are up 15 and the SNP up four.
1:45pm: Labour HOLD Hartlepool after Tories and Brexit party split the Leave vote. I think Labour is doing better than they would under preferential voting.
Hartlepool: Lab HOLD
LAB: 37.7% (-14.8)
CON: 28.9% (-5.3)
BREX: 25.8% (+25.8)
LDEM: 4.1% (+2.3)
IND (Bousfield): 2.2%Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019 turnout
Brexit Party were confident of gaining this.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
1:41pm: A narrow Lib Dem HOLD vs the Tories
1:36pm: Labour HOLDS Canterbury, the seat where the original Lib Dem withdrew, only to be replaced by another Lib Dem.
Canterbury: Lab HOLD
LAB: 48.3% (+3.3)
CON: 45.2% (+0.5)
LDEM: 5.7% (-2.3)
IND (Gould): 0.8%Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
1:29pm: After 96 of 650 seats, the BBC has Labour down 8.8% in the same seats from 2017, but only 1.6% has gone to the Conservatives. Labour has lost eight net seats, with the Conservatives up six.
12:55pm: An against the run of play result: Labour GAIN Putney from Conservative; that’s a London seat.
Putney: Lab GAIN
LAB: 45.1% (+4.3)
CON: 35.7% (-8.4)
LDEM: 16.9% (+5.3)
GRN: 2.2% (-0.2)Swing: Con to Lab (+6.3)
Turnout: 77.0%
Full results: https://t.co/c9SOxsjOG7 #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
12:51pm Labour suffers the humiliation of losing its deposit in Bracknell.
Bracknell: Con HOLD
CON: 73.3% (+14.5)
LDEM: 17.8% (+10.3)
GRN: 4.8% (+4.8)
LAB: 2.9% (-27.3)
IND (Barreto): 1.3%Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019
Labour lose their deposit.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
12:46pm Gateshead illustrates how bad it would be for Labour if not for the Brexit party standing in most seats it currently holds.
Gateshead: Lab HOLD
LAB: 53.6% (-11.5)
CON: 34.7% (+10.8)
LDEM: 7.3% (+3.2)
GRN: 4.3% (+2.8)Swing: -11.5
Turnout: 59.2%
Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
12:43pm: On the BBC’s results page, Labour’s vote is down 11.4% after 20 of 650 seats. The only good news for Labour is that only 2.7% of that drop has gone to the Conservatives, with 5.5% going to the Brexit party.
12:33pm: Conservatives GAIN Darlington and Workington from Labour.
Workington: Con GAIN
CON: 49.3% (+7.6)
LAB: 39.2% (-11.9)
BREX: 4.2% (+4.2)
LDEM: 3.7% (+1.0)
IND (Cockburn): 2.0%Swing: Lab to Con (+9.8)
Turnout: 67.8%
Full results: https://t.co/wVfQPUtvng #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
12:26pm Labour’s big problem with the Leave vote: although Leave only won the Brexit referendum by 52-48, it carried 64% of seats in Great Britain (ie excluding Northern Ireland). The Leave vote was far more efficiently distributed than the Remain vote, which clustered in the big cities.
This implies that an explicitly pro-Remain Labour leader would not have performed any better than Corbyn. This election is the realignment around Leave/Remain that was expected in 2017, but which Corbyn thwarted with his pro-Brexit positioning.
12:12pm: Almost a 10% swing from Labour to Con in Nuneaton gives Con a far bigger majority.
12:08pm Tory vote down 6% in S Shields, with Labour down 16%, thanks to an independent and Brexit party candidate.
South Shields: Lab HOLD
LAB: 45.6% (-15.9)
CON: 20.3% (-5.6)
BREX: 17.0% (+17.0)
IND (Thompson): 9.7%
LDEM: 4.0% (+2.3)Turnout: 60.3%
Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
12:01pm
With ten seats declared, the average vote share changes are…
Con: +2.1
Lab: -9.9
LDem: +3.0
Brex: +6.6https://t.co/pHAmhckPls— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
11:27am: Direct swing of 5% from Labour to Con gives Con a much bigger majority in N Swindon.
North Swindon: Con HOLD
CON: 59.4% (+5.8)
LAB: 32.8% (-5.6)
GRN: 3.9% (+2.3)
LDEM: 3.9% (+0.3)Swing: +5.8
Full results: https://t.co/1owjTILCZN #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
11:16am: Sedgefield was Tony Blair’s old seat, so would be a huge triumph for the Conservatives.
Tories confident of winning Bolsover and Sedgefield; Newcastle North (10,000 majority in 2010) looking close.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
10:36am: Conservatives GAIN Blyth Valley from Labour after 15% crash in Labour’s vote. Additional note: And preferential voting wouldn’t have helped Labour given 8% for the Brexit party.
Blyth Valley: Con GAIN
CON: 42.7% (+5.4)
LAB: 40.9% (-15.0)
BREX: 8.3% (+8.3)
LDEM: 5.3% (+0.7)
GRN: 2.8% (+0.6)Swing: Lab to Con (+10.2)
Full results: https://t.co/wVfQPUtvng #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 12, 2019
10:30am First result in, Labour HOLD, but with a 7% swing against.
Newcastle upon Tyne Central: Lab HOLD
LAB: 57.6% (-7.3)
CON: 24.8% (+0.2)
LDEM: 7.2% (+2.3)
BREX: 6.8% (+6.8)
GRN: 3.6% (+2.0)Swing: -7.3
Turnout: 64.8%
Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 12, 2019
10:21am: Normally we’d have some results by now, but close contests in former Labour strongholds have slowed down the count in those seats.
10:08am: Vote shares according to The Exit Poll
Revised estimated vote shares inferred from Exit poll: Con 44.5, Lab 32, Lib 12, with SNP near 50pc in Scotland. That would be a Con lead of 12.5pc, which is a bit higher than the average of campaign polls.
— Electoral Calculus (@ElectCalculus) December 12, 2019
9:39am: Nate Silver
There are about a billion complications, and every election has its host of one-off contingencies. But there is reasonably robust evidence that, over the long run, parties & candidates that are perceived as more "extreme" tend to fare worse electorally, other things held equal.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 12, 2019
9:30am: Antony Green
368 seats for the Conservatives would be the party's biggest win since 397 seats at Margaret Thatcher's re-election in 1983. 191 seats for Labour would be the worst Labour return since the second National government election in 1935. #auspol #ge2019
— Antony Green (@AntonyGreenABC) December 12, 2019
9:03am: The Exit Poll has a big win for the Conservatives
#GE2019, EXIT POLL:
Con: 368 (+51)
Lab: 191 (-71)
SNP: 55 (+20)
LDem: 13 (+1) pic.twitter.com/Gz9y7sYDHW— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 12, 2019
7:55am: As well as the UK, there is an electoral development in Israel. A new election has been called for March 2, 2020, after no government could be formed after the September election. It will be the third Israeli election within a year. Early polling suggests the left-leaning Blue & White is ahead of the right-wing Likud, but do not have enough allies to form a government.
4am (AEDT). Adrian Beaumont will be taking care of business on the live commentary front, but this here is your editor reporting in the small hours to kick off proceedings. If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can you enjoy my election eve account of the campaign horse race here. Here is one last update of my poll tracker, which tells the same story as before: the Conservatives had already devoured the Brexit Party before the campaign began, while Labour’s cannibalising of the Liberal Democrats has been a slower process that has persisted through to the end of the campaign. With the addition of seven last polls, the final scores are Conservative 42.9% (+0.2% compared with the last run, +0.5% on the 2017 result), Labour 33.7% (steady and -6.3%) and Liberal Democrats 11.9% (-0.4% and +4.5%).
For your convenience, here is a repeat of Adrian’s timeline of how things are likely to unfold, Australian time.
9am: Polls close and The Exit Poll is released (intentional capitalisation). In the last three elections, The Exit Poll has given seat results which greatly disagreed with pre-election polls and expectations. In all three cases, The Exit Poll was far closer to the mark than pre-election polls. Only seat counts are given, not vote shares.
11am: According to this article about the 2017 election, only three of 650 declarations are expected by this time.
1pm-3pm: These two hours should be the heaviest for declarations. Initial results will be biased to Labour as the Conservative heartland regional seats take longer to gather their votes. The key is to watch the changes in vote share, and whether seats are being gained or lost.
6pm: Only a few seats will not be declared by this time. Very close seats can take longer to declare owing to recounts. If there’s snow on the roads, results will be delayed.
“Having said that, the Lib Dems vote has gone up by 4%, while Labour’s has gone down -8%”
A big % change off a small base isn’t that impressive.
Firefox,
One of the few silver linings I am taking from today is from a Professor of Politics from Oxford I heard interviewed on the ABC.
According to her, Boris has his deal ready to go – the EU27 have agreed to it, and the UK parliament will also now agree. The de facto (rather that de jure) EU / UK border will be in the Irish Sea. So, no hard border on the island of Eire.
I would love to see a united Ireland, but it will not be easy. Small careful steps in this. no more troubles please.
Parramatta Moderate
Clearly most posters here don’t.
Northern Ireland does not want to leave the UK or join Ireland.
D & M
I note the DUP lost two seats in the election.
“According to her, Boris has his deal ready to go”
I still reckon there is an outside chance that Johnson will try to renegotiate, now that he actually has to try to implement the impossible.
He’ll claim this thumping win (which it is) means the EU has to come back to the party. They won’t and he can be a martyr for another few years. I doubt it would hurt him; I don’t think anyone expects him to implement anything.
(Yes, I admit this is probably unlikely)
“no more troubles please.”
***
That’s what worries me too.
Just a reminder, a clear majority of 55.78% in Northern Ireland voted to Remain in the Brexit referendum. A massive majority of 62.00% in Scotland also voted to Remain.
Blobbit
Well spotted. I like this cluster analysis by Electoral Calculus who have found seven “tribes” in the UK, using 3 axes:
Economic: running from left-wing (more taxes and spending) to right-wing (freer markets and tax cuts)
National: from globalist co-operation to nationalist sovereignty
Social: from socially liberal to socially conservative
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_main.html
Blobbit
Boris has full authority now to renegotiate the EU deal because he will get whatever deal he wants through Parliament and No Deal is back on the table.
Everything has changed.
I love how on the one hand people are saying first past post sucks, and yet bragging about the SNP winning the vast majority of seats in Scotland with only 45% of the vote.
And 45% is hardly a mandate for independence…..
Firefox says:
Friday, December 13, 2019 at 5:39 pm
“Just a reminder, a clear majority of 55.78% in Northern Ireland voted to Remain in the Brexit referendum. A massive majority of 62.00% in Scotland also voted to Remain.”
So?
England voted to Leave and is 84% of the population of the UK. Should they be ignored?
Swamprat
Well spotted! I just hope it does not push Boris to a hard border on Eire.
Northern Ireland FINAL
DUP 8 (-2)
SF 7 (0)
SDLP 2 (+2)
ALLIANCE 1 (+1)
Nationalists win more seats than Unionists for the first time
Firefox,
Have you been introduced to the concept of epicycles?
“I like this cluster analysis by Electoral Calculus who have found seven “tribes” in the UK, using 3 axes:”
Yes, something like that. I could even put it in class terms
1 social and economic conservatives – weird mix of work class (social conservatives) and tories (economic conservatives)
2 social progressives, but economically fairly conservative (uni-educated, inner city, middle class)
3 social progressives and economic radicals (as perceived by the community) (uni-educated often, but for some reason economically excluded)
That’s very broad brush, probably too much to be useful really. There is of course also lots of cross over. There’s also a bit of an age effect.
The genius of the conservatives is to recognise that the people in 1 are willing to get together.
Blobbit: “The genius of the conservatives is to recognise that the people in 1 are willing to get together.”
And also that they represent significantly more than 50 per cent of all voters.
“Boris has full authority now to renegotiate the EU deal because he will get whatever deal he wants through Parliament and No Deal is back on the table.”
He does as far as the UK goes, sure.
And the EU will just shrug their shoulders at him.
Bucephalus
The last opinion poll I saw had a slight majority for joining the Republic. Under the Good Friday Agreement the UK government is obliged to hold a referendum if there is evidence that it may succeed. I doubt if Boris will be in a hurry but I also believe that Brexit with a border either on the Island or in the Irish Sea will firm up the nationalist vote
Boris has full authority now to renegotiate the EU deal because he will get whatever deal he wants through Parliament and No Deal is back on the table.
Everything has changed.
—–
Well, he can choose between the current deal, and no deal with the added opprobrium of breaking his word to the EU27. To ‘renegotiate’ takes two to tango. It would also contradict their manifesto.
Conservatives have already indicated they will get on with ratifying so its a theoretical point in any event.
(of course, that just shifts negotiations to the trade deal. Plenty of opportunity for counterproductive grandstanding there)
Blobbit,
This really worries me, and Bucephalus has just confirmed this fear.
“England voted to Leave and is 84% of the population of the UK. Should they be ignored?”
***
No. I have already said that England and Wales should be allowed to leave if that is their wish. But if you are going to respect their vote then you must also respect the vote of the Scottish and Irish too. The UK, just like the EU, is made up of individual countries. English Leavers constantly complain about the EU telling them what to do but they are quite happy to do exactly the same thing they are complaining about to Scotland and Northern Ireland. It is hypocrisy in the extreme.
Blobbit
The working class or the middle class idea of help is different to what many on the left thinks is help.
BoJo will try to get his existing Brexit deal through Parliament and then signed before the end of January. I suspect the implementation date will be a month or two later.
Blobbit
Why would the EU ignore the UK and risk a WTO exit? That would be as bad for them as for the UK. Up until now the EU has been using the weakness of the Conservatives in Parliament against them. The EU was hoping that Brexit would be abandoned by the UK due to the deadlocked Parliament. That isn’t going to happen now and they really have to negotiate if they want a better outcome than a WTO exit.
GBP doing well still – interested to see how the FTSE does today.
OC,
Thank you for reminding me of this. I think a hard border will see a more quick clamour for a new referendum that the border being in the Irish Sea.
The DUP wanted the border between the EU and UK in the Channel, effectively cutting the Republic off from the EU. Now that they have gone backwards I hope this is off the table!
“GBP doing well still – interested to see how the FTSE does today.”
***
The rich elites are happy with their work, no doubt. The big end of town was right behind their boy Boris.
Firefox says:
Friday, December 13, 2019 at 5:56 pm
“The UK, just like the EU, is made up of individual countries.”
The EU is not a nation like the UK is – they are very different and to claim they should behave in exactly the same way ignores the reality.
Next you will be saying that Boris doesn’t have a mandate for BREXIT because despite a clear majority voting for it they didn’t know what they were voting for.
How many times do the Remainers have to lose before they accept what the voters voted for?
Firefoxsays:
Friday, December 13, 2019 at 6:05 pm
Wrong. Comprehensively wrong.
There is no good reason why the NI-Ireland Border cannot be like it already is. They do it in Scandinavia.
I believe that the Blairites in the Labour Party, who some opportunistically jumped on the Remain bandwagon, will be those who will be blamed for the election defeat and rightly so in my opinion. These elements have been responsible for pushing Jeremy Corbyn to advocate having a referendum on a Brexit deal with Remain on the ballot. Not to mention they have been undermining Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour Party since he was elected leader by the membership.
Before Labour advocated that, they had as I see was the best solution to the Brexit question, namely going back to the European Union and negotiating a ‘Soft Brexit’ with the UK remaining in the customs union. There is no doubt in my mind that the European Union would have happily agreed. Also, many working-class leave voters concentrated in the North would have supported Labour’s Brexit deal over the Tory one.
Sure it would have run the risk of the Liberal Democrats doing well. However, they would have been winning many more Tory than Labour seats.
@Buce
Nope. I’m saying that the majority vote of people in individual countries should and must be respected. You only want to respect the result that aligns with your view. I am saying that England and Wales should be allowed to leave the EU. I am respecting their vote. You are not respecting the will of the Scottish or the Irish.
No. Entirely correct. The corporate establishment were all backing Boris. He is the representative of the rich elites.
Bucephalus: “How many times do the Remainers have to lose before they accept what the voters voted for?”
A reasonable question.
I thought this tweet today from Piers Morgan was pertinent:
“This election was the 2nd EU Referendum – and Britain just voted to Leave even more enthusiastically. Those trying to flog the ridiculous ‘People’s Vote’ just got the People’s vote.”
Until stupid titles like ‘Blairite’ are abandoned Labour will get nowhere.
This with us or against us is a total turn-off.
I think Corbyn has been a disaster for Labour but also think Blair should be locked up for war crimes along with Bush and Howard.
Got a name for me Tristo?
The difference with Scandinavia is that Norway is a member of the customs union, an option proposed by Labour but rejected by the Tories.
If you are a member of the customs union but not the EU, you must play by the EU rules but have no say in making them
Firefox
Looking at the wealthy London electorates would say otherwise and the reaction is coming from the Asian pacific region with London not yet open and yes the market will react positively because this result does give certainty over Brexit and there wont be Corbyn policies.
Boris Johnson was the one, who proposed a Sea Border in the Irish sea, so that there would not be a ‘Hard Border’ between Northern Ireland the Republic. Now that the Conservatives have a sizable majority, the objections by the DUP to such a proposal will be ignored.
Well, the predictions in the UK polls were seemingly more to the point than May in Oz. Democracy has been seen to be done and come what, the the party with the largest vote won and their leader is still PM.
What seems fairly obvious to me is that “English” political parties are about as dead as a haggis north of Hadrian’s Wall……………
The overwhelming sentiment in Scotland at the moment seems to be that while 42% or 43% in England and Wales seem to want Boris the Scots certainly do not. Even the Welsh, while giving a few more seats to Boris, are still in a majority that they don’t want him………………And as far as the Irish are concerned, who can tell?
So Little England coupled with a Disunited Kingdom means a sad day for the Old Dart….
And to those former Labour voters (mostly north of Birmingham) who think the future lies with the Tories……….good luck to you…………as you will need it.
If you think the good people of Cambridgeshire, Kent and the West of England give a toss about you, you have another thing coming. However, one supposes with all those Poles, Bulgarians and “foreigners” being shown the door, then the purity of the Cross of St George is now safe.
“and there wont be Corbyn policies.”
***
And there you have admitted that the corporate establishment prefers the Tory agenda. Boris is the representative of the rich elites.
@Kate
I have criticisms of Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour Party of course. However the ‘Blairites’ in the have done a lot to undermine Corbyn’s leadership of the party. Plus some were very opportunistic to say vote for invoking article 50, then jumping on the Remain bandwagon later on.
“Why would the EU ignore the UK and risk a WTO exit? That would be as bad for them as for the UK”
Because they have their own political and economic drivers as well. They’ve got more at stake in going with the deal as agreed.
Also, the deal that Johnson may want to offer – technological unicorns which make a border disappear – is impossible.
Firefox
Corbyn was offering a return to a kind of 1970s era economics with government taking over major British companies and introducing higher taxes. These sorts of policies would not be popular with many people as this result would suggest. People do not like higher taxes and the home of the Peasants revolt has given us a reminder.
Current TPP = Labour 51.4% (Labour + Lib Dems + Greens + Plaid + SNP + SF)
The Tories might have won under the first past the post system but it’s clear that the majority of the UK doesn’t support their agenda.
“And there you have admitted that the corporate establishment prefers the Tory agenda. Boris is the representative of the rich elites.”
Well, yes, of course he is.
The problem is that in all the Anglo world, they’re winning.
The left has to face that reality and work out what to do about it. And that means dealing with the establishment bias in the media, if that is one of the causes.
And dealing with the electoral system as it is.
What happened to the youff vote? I thought they had all grown up and the oldies had died?
Blair’s actions re Iraq were absolutely disgraceful, even moreso that he never faced any consequences for lying and manipulating his way into that disastrous war. And, yet, his ability turn UK Labour into an electable centre-left force and maintain power for so long (we may bemoan how little time Aus Labor has spent on the government benches compared to the conservatives, but they’ve managed a whole lot longer than their UK counterparts), likely led to much better outcomes on the whole for the UK from 1997-2010 than they would have gotten with a continuation of the Thatcher/Major years.
You can loathe the man while still accepting that he and his supporters probably know what they are talking about when it comes to the most effective ways for Labour to win and hold office.
Blobbit
A lot of today’s market is computer driven and most of the reaction would be coming from our part of the world including Australian superfunds.
“Corbyn was offering”
***
…to take on the right-wing capitalist establishment and give control of utilities back to the people. Rampant capitalism is causing so much damage to people’s lives. It has failed everyone but the rich elites. The rich keep getting richer while the poor keep getting poorer while they are conned by the lie of trickle down economics. It doesn’t trickle down, it just pools at the top. The right have once again backed in the elites and will continue to suffer because of it.
And as far as Scotland is concerned and its wishes, even before the election has been done and dusted, it is reported a Tory spokesperson has been “hosing down” any move by the Scots to call another referendum. So, we will just have to wait and see just how much democracy will now come out of a Tory dominated Westminster……………………..I wonder how many times Bojo will venture north of the border in the next five years? After all, only 6 is it?, of the 350 plus Conservatives actually exist in Scotland. Worse for Labor, as they are now virtually extinct in Scotland while the LibDems are an oddity among the heather.
The United Kingdom exists in name alone…………….
Goodness only knows what Her Maj thinks of all this. Perhaps she will shift out of Balmoral and head for somewhere in the Cotswolds? In Scotland she will be a part of and English minority group….
The biggest laugh is the belief among the Tories that they have a golden future so-say free of the shackles of the bureaucrats from Brussels….By hey, they voted for it…………….or at least 44% did, so they will just have to get on with it as best they can……………
Kate,
Totally with you.
Unless people are into the “Sins of the fathers will be visited upon the sons”, why would anyone prefer a Tory government, especially if you have any sort of social conscience.
I think Blair should be locked up for war crimes! But that does not mean that I will eschew any Labour government who can put together a workable majority.