10:05am Wednesday December 18: A post-election YouGov poll of over 40,000 respondents has the startling finding that low-income people voted Tory by greater margins than high-income people. The Tories won the middle class (ABC1) by 43-33 and the working class (C2DE) by 48-33 (44-40 and 44-42 respectively in 2017). The Tories won those with the lowest educational attainment by 58-25 (55-33 in 2017). Labour won those with the highest educational attainment 43-29 (49-32 in 2017).
3:25pm Saturday: Conversation article up. I believe a major cause for the bad Labour loss was its Brexit policy, but another important difference from 2017 was real wage growth: -0.5% before the 2017 election vs +1.7% in the latest available data. People are only willing to vote for left-wing policies if they are not doing well financially. There’s also US politics stuff in that article.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at The University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
7:50am Saturday: The Conservatives HELD St Ives overnight with an increased majority over the Lib Dems. Final seat numbers are 365 Tories (up 47), 203 Labour (down 59), 48 SNP (up 13) and 11 Lib Dems (down one). I will have a write-up for The Conversation later today.
7:10pm Most polls had the Tory lead over Labour at nine to 12 points; the final result will be 11.5 points, so most polls were about right. Survation, Ipsos, Opinium and Kantar had the Tory lead at either 11 or 12 points, and are the best pollsters. The worst were ComRes (just a five point lead) and ICM (six points).
7:03pm How the Britain Elects Poll Tracker compares to the actual results excluding Northern Ireland. William Bowe has said the two majors were too high in the polls, but most UK polls exclude Northern Ireland.
The Britain Elects poll tracker (vs. the GB election result):
CON: 43.1% (44.7)
LAB: 33.9% (33.1)
LDEM: 11.9% (11.8)
BREX: 3.3% (2.1)
GRN: 2.6% (2.8)https://t.co/pHAmhckPls#QuiteSmug— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
6:13pm: In Northern Ireland, the DUP won eight of the 18 seats (down two), Sinn Fein seven (no change), the Social Democratic Labour Party two and the Alliance Party one. Vote shares were 30.6% DUP, 22.8% Sinn Fein, 16.8% Alliance and 14.9% SDLP. So the Alliance got only one seat on 17% vote.
5:57pm: Final Scotland results: SNP 48 of 59 seats (up 13), Tories six (down seven), Lib Dems four (no change), Labour one (down six). Vote shares: SNP 45.0% (up 8.1%), Tories 25.1% (down 3.5%), Labour 18.6% (down 8.5%) and Lib Dems 9.5% (up 2.8%).
4:52pm: With 13 seats to go, the Tories have 355 seats, Labour 202, the SNP 48 and the Lib Dems ten.
4:33pm: Another ex-Tory gets pummelled
South West Hertfordshire: Con HOLD
CON: 49.6% (-8.3)
IND (Gauke): 26.0%
LAB: 11.8% (-13.9)
LDEM: 10.2% (-1.5)
GRN: 2.4% (-0.2)Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
4:24pm Labour has got to 200 seats with 37 left for the whole UK.
4:20pm: With all 40 Welsh seats declared, Labour won 22 (down six), the Tories 14 (up six) and Plaid Cymru four (no change). Vote shares were 40.9% Labour (down 8.0%) and 36.9% Tories (up 2.5%).
4:16pm: With 41 seats still to be declared, the Tories have passed the majority mark (326 seats), and are now up to 335 seats.
4:11pm: Another not-great tactical voting, with the Tories HOLDING Finchley with 44%, the Lib Dems second with 32% and Labour 3rd with 24%.
Finchley and Golders Green: Con HOLD
CON: 43.8% (-3.2)
LDEM: 31.9% (+25.3)
LAB: 24.2% (-19.6)Swing: -3.2
Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
3:36pm Tories GAIN Kensington from Labour by just 0.3% because the Lib Dems took 21%. Additional note: Some polls in this seat put the Lib Dems ahead of Labour, so tactical voting plans were confused.
Kensington: Con GAIN
CON: 38.3% (-3.9)
LAB: 38.0% (-4.2)
LDEM: 21.3% (+9.1)
GRN: 1.2% (-0.8)
BREX: 0.9% (+0.9)Swing: Lab to Con (+0.2)
Turnout: 67.7%
Full results: https://t.co/wVfQPUtvng #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
3:22pm: Ex-Tory Dominic Grieve LOSES his seat to the Tories.
Beaconsfield: Con HOLD
CON: 56.1% (-9.2)
IND (Grieve): 29.0%
LAB: 9.9% (-11.5)
GRN: 3.5% (+1.0)
IND (Cleary): 1.4%Turnout: 74.5%
Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019Dominic Grieve fails to keep his seat.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
3:12pm: In Leave seats, Labour lost votes directly to the Tories and Brexit party. In Remain seats, the Lib Dems often split part of the vote, and anyway there aren’t enough Remain seats in the UK.
3:09pm With 424 of 650 seats declared, the Tories have 220 (up 32), Labour 146 (down 44), the SNP 35 (up 12) and the Lib Dems seven (no change). The Tories have a 42.6% to 33.5% lead over Labour with 10.7% for the Lib Dems. On a matched seat basis, Labour is down 8.3%.
2:54pm: Lib Dems miss out in Wimbledon; Labour had too many votes.
Wimbledon: Con HOLD
CON: 38.4% (-8.1)
LDEM: 37.2% (+22.7)
LAB: 23.7% (-11.9)
IND (Hadley): 0.7%Swing: -8.1
Turnout: 77.7%
Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
2:52pm Socialist Laura Pidcock LOSES her seat
North West Durham: Con GAIN
CON: 41.9% (+7.4)
LAB: 39.5% (-13.3)
BREX: 6.7% (+6.7)
LDEM: 5.9% (-1.2)
IND (Stelling): 2.6%Swing: Lab to Con (+10.3)
Turnout: 66.0%
Full results: https://t.co/wVfQPUtvng #GE2019Laura Pidcock out.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
2:50pm: Jo Swinson LOSES her seat to the SNP
East Dunbartonshire: SNP GAIN
SNP: 37.1% (+6.8)
LDEM: 36.8% (-3.8)
CON: 14.1% (-0.5)
LAB: 9.1% (-5.4)
GRN: 1.7% (+1.7)Swing: LD to SNP (+5.3)
Turnout: 80.3%
Full results: https://t.co/JTwGgUwy13 #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
2:47pm: Boris Johnson easily HOLDS his seat.
Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Con HOLD
CON: 52.6% (+1.8)
LAB: 37.6% (-2.4)
LDEM: 6.3% (+2.4)
GRN: 2.3% (+0.4)
UKIP: 0.6% (-2.8)Swing: +1.8
Turnout: 68.5%
Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
2:46pm: Really UGLY result for Labour in Bassetlaw
Bassetlaw: Con GAIN
CON: 55.2% (+11.9)
LAB: 27.7% (-24.9)
BREX: 10.6% (+10.6)
LDEM: 6.6% (+4.4)Swing: Lab to Con (+18.4)
Turnout: 63.5%
Full results: https://t.co/wVfQPUtvng #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
2:41pm: Labour loses Tony Blair’s old seat of Sedgefield.
Sedgefield: Con GAIN
CON: 47.2% (+8.4)
LAB: 36.3% (-17.1)
BREX: 8.5% (+8.5)
LDEM: 4.7% (+2.8)
GRN: 2.4% (+0.8)Swing: Lab to Con (+12.8)
Turnout: 64.6%
Full results: https://t.co/wVfQPUtvng #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
2:35pm: Corbyn easily holds Islington N, but has announced he will resign as Labour leader.
Islington North: Lab HOLD
LAB: 64.3% (-8.7)
LDEM: 15.6% (+6.6)
CON: 10.2% (-2.3)
GRN: 8.0% (+3.9)
BREX: 1.4% (+1.4)Swing: -8.7
Turnout: 71.6%
Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn back.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
2:32pm: Lib Dems GAIN a seat from SNP in Scotland
North East Fife: LD GAIN
LDEM: 43.1% (+10.2)
SNP: 40.2% (+7.3)
CON: 13.0% (-11.1)
LAB: 3.7% (-5.9)Swing: SNP to LD (+1.4)
Turnout: 75.3%
Full results: https://t.co/TxsLgj4D4d #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
2:29pm: Overall, with 281 of 650 seats declared, the Tories have 140 seats (up 25), Labour 104 (down 31), the SNP 20 (up seven) and the Lib Dems five (down one). Labour’s vote is down 8.1%, with the Tory vote up 1.8%.
2:20pm: In Wales, Labour has lost five seats to the Tories after 27 of 40 declared. Labour’s vote is down 9.6% with the Tories up 3.6% and Brexit taking 6.6%.
2:16pm Scottish results so far are SNP all 17 seats declared, with the Tories and Labour losing three seats each.
2:06pm: Here’s one that could have gone to a non-Tory with preferential voting.
Cities of London and Westminster: Con HOLD
CON: 39.9% (-6.7)
LDEM: 30.7% (+19.7)
LAB: 27.2% (-11.2)
GRN: 1.7% (-0.4)
OTH: 0.3% (+0.3)Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019
Chuka Umunna fails.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
1:59pm: With 175 of 650 seats in, Labour has lost a net 19 seats, the Tories are up 15 and the SNP up four.
1:45pm: Labour HOLD Hartlepool after Tories and Brexit party split the Leave vote. I think Labour is doing better than they would under preferential voting.
Hartlepool: Lab HOLD
LAB: 37.7% (-14.8)
CON: 28.9% (-5.3)
BREX: 25.8% (+25.8)
LDEM: 4.1% (+2.3)
IND (Bousfield): 2.2%Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019 turnout
Brexit Party were confident of gaining this.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
1:41pm: A narrow Lib Dem HOLD vs the Tories
1:36pm: Labour HOLDS Canterbury, the seat where the original Lib Dem withdrew, only to be replaced by another Lib Dem.
Canterbury: Lab HOLD
LAB: 48.3% (+3.3)
CON: 45.2% (+0.5)
LDEM: 5.7% (-2.3)
IND (Gould): 0.8%Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
1:29pm: After 96 of 650 seats, the BBC has Labour down 8.8% in the same seats from 2017, but only 1.6% has gone to the Conservatives. Labour has lost eight net seats, with the Conservatives up six.
12:55pm: An against the run of play result: Labour GAIN Putney from Conservative; that’s a London seat.
Putney: Lab GAIN
LAB: 45.1% (+4.3)
CON: 35.7% (-8.4)
LDEM: 16.9% (+5.3)
GRN: 2.2% (-0.2)Swing: Con to Lab (+6.3)
Turnout: 77.0%
Full results: https://t.co/c9SOxsjOG7 #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
12:51pm Labour suffers the humiliation of losing its deposit in Bracknell.
Bracknell: Con HOLD
CON: 73.3% (+14.5)
LDEM: 17.8% (+10.3)
GRN: 4.8% (+4.8)
LAB: 2.9% (-27.3)
IND (Barreto): 1.3%Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019
Labour lose their deposit.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
12:46pm Gateshead illustrates how bad it would be for Labour if not for the Brexit party standing in most seats it currently holds.
Gateshead: Lab HOLD
LAB: 53.6% (-11.5)
CON: 34.7% (+10.8)
LDEM: 7.3% (+3.2)
GRN: 4.3% (+2.8)Swing: -11.5
Turnout: 59.2%
Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
12:43pm: On the BBC’s results page, Labour’s vote is down 11.4% after 20 of 650 seats. The only good news for Labour is that only 2.7% of that drop has gone to the Conservatives, with 5.5% going to the Brexit party.
12:33pm: Conservatives GAIN Darlington and Workington from Labour.
Workington: Con GAIN
CON: 49.3% (+7.6)
LAB: 39.2% (-11.9)
BREX: 4.2% (+4.2)
LDEM: 3.7% (+1.0)
IND (Cockburn): 2.0%Swing: Lab to Con (+9.8)
Turnout: 67.8%
Full results: https://t.co/wVfQPUtvng #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
12:26pm Labour’s big problem with the Leave vote: although Leave only won the Brexit referendum by 52-48, it carried 64% of seats in Great Britain (ie excluding Northern Ireland). The Leave vote was far more efficiently distributed than the Remain vote, which clustered in the big cities.
This implies that an explicitly pro-Remain Labour leader would not have performed any better than Corbyn. This election is the realignment around Leave/Remain that was expected in 2017, but which Corbyn thwarted with his pro-Brexit positioning.
12:12pm: Almost a 10% swing from Labour to Con in Nuneaton gives Con a far bigger majority.
12:08pm Tory vote down 6% in S Shields, with Labour down 16%, thanks to an independent and Brexit party candidate.
South Shields: Lab HOLD
LAB: 45.6% (-15.9)
CON: 20.3% (-5.6)
BREX: 17.0% (+17.0)
IND (Thompson): 9.7%
LDEM: 4.0% (+2.3)Turnout: 60.3%
Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
12:01pm
With ten seats declared, the average vote share changes are…
Con: +2.1
Lab: -9.9
LDem: +3.0
Brex: +6.6https://t.co/pHAmhckPls— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
11:27am: Direct swing of 5% from Labour to Con gives Con a much bigger majority in N Swindon.
North Swindon: Con HOLD
CON: 59.4% (+5.8)
LAB: 32.8% (-5.6)
GRN: 3.9% (+2.3)
LDEM: 3.9% (+0.3)Swing: +5.8
Full results: https://t.co/1owjTILCZN #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
11:16am: Sedgefield was Tony Blair’s old seat, so would be a huge triumph for the Conservatives.
Tories confident of winning Bolsover and Sedgefield; Newcastle North (10,000 majority in 2010) looking close.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 13, 2019
10:36am: Conservatives GAIN Blyth Valley from Labour after 15% crash in Labour’s vote. Additional note: And preferential voting wouldn’t have helped Labour given 8% for the Brexit party.
Blyth Valley: Con GAIN
CON: 42.7% (+5.4)
LAB: 40.9% (-15.0)
BREX: 8.3% (+8.3)
LDEM: 5.3% (+0.7)
GRN: 2.8% (+0.6)Swing: Lab to Con (+10.2)
Full results: https://t.co/wVfQPUtvng #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 12, 2019
10:30am First result in, Labour HOLD, but with a 7% swing against.
Newcastle upon Tyne Central: Lab HOLD
LAB: 57.6% (-7.3)
CON: 24.8% (+0.2)
LDEM: 7.2% (+2.3)
BREX: 6.8% (+6.8)
GRN: 3.6% (+2.0)Swing: -7.3
Turnout: 64.8%
Full results: https://t.co/pHAmhckPls #GE2019— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 12, 2019
10:21am: Normally we’d have some results by now, but close contests in former Labour strongholds have slowed down the count in those seats.
10:08am: Vote shares according to The Exit Poll
Revised estimated vote shares inferred from Exit poll: Con 44.5, Lab 32, Lib 12, with SNP near 50pc in Scotland. That would be a Con lead of 12.5pc, which is a bit higher than the average of campaign polls.
— Electoral Calculus (@ElectCalculus) December 12, 2019
9:39am: Nate Silver
There are about a billion complications, and every election has its host of one-off contingencies. But there is reasonably robust evidence that, over the long run, parties & candidates that are perceived as more "extreme" tend to fare worse electorally, other things held equal.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 12, 2019
9:30am: Antony Green
368 seats for the Conservatives would be the party's biggest win since 397 seats at Margaret Thatcher's re-election in 1983. 191 seats for Labour would be the worst Labour return since the second National government election in 1935. #auspol #ge2019
— Antony Green (@AntonyGreenABC) December 12, 2019
9:03am: The Exit Poll has a big win for the Conservatives
#GE2019, EXIT POLL:
Con: 368 (+51)
Lab: 191 (-71)
SNP: 55 (+20)
LDem: 13 (+1) pic.twitter.com/Gz9y7sYDHW— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 12, 2019
7:55am: As well as the UK, there is an electoral development in Israel. A new election has been called for March 2, 2020, after no government could be formed after the September election. It will be the third Israeli election within a year. Early polling suggests the left-leaning Blue & White is ahead of the right-wing Likud, but do not have enough allies to form a government.
4am (AEDT). Adrian Beaumont will be taking care of business on the live commentary front, but this here is your editor reporting in the small hours to kick off proceedings. If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can you enjoy my election eve account of the campaign horse race here. Here is one last update of my poll tracker, which tells the same story as before: the Conservatives had already devoured the Brexit Party before the campaign began, while Labour’s cannibalising of the Liberal Democrats has been a slower process that has persisted through to the end of the campaign. With the addition of seven last polls, the final scores are Conservative 42.9% (+0.2% compared with the last run, +0.5% on the 2017 result), Labour 33.7% (steady and -6.3%) and Liberal Democrats 11.9% (-0.4% and +4.5%).
For your convenience, here is a repeat of Adrian’s timeline of how things are likely to unfold, Australian time.
9am: Polls close and The Exit Poll is released (intentional capitalisation). In the last three elections, The Exit Poll has given seat results which greatly disagreed with pre-election polls and expectations. In all three cases, The Exit Poll was far closer to the mark than pre-election polls. Only seat counts are given, not vote shares.
11am: According to this article about the 2017 election, only three of 650 declarations are expected by this time.
1pm-3pm: These two hours should be the heaviest for declarations. Initial results will be biased to Labour as the Conservative heartland regional seats take longer to gather their votes. The key is to watch the changes in vote share, and whether seats are being gained or lost.
6pm: Only a few seats will not be declared by this time. Very close seats can take longer to declare owing to recounts. If there’s snow on the roads, results will be delayed.
Firefox
The 1970s were not an economic paradise and the working class know that and the market elite does include your and my superfund.
“…to take on the right-wing capitalist establishment and give control of utilities back to the people. Rampant capitalism is causing so much damage to people’s lives. It has failed everyone but the rich elites. The rich keep getting richer while the poor keep getting poorer while they are conned by the lie of trickle down economics. It doesn’t trickle down, it just pools at the top. The right have once again back in the elites and will continue to suffer because of it.”
Yep, let’s say I agree with that (I do to some extent).
So what? The Left need to get to a position where they can win an election. Corbyn had a go, Shorten to a lesser extent. Both failed, given the electoral system they operate in.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/12/13/british-election-live-2/comment-page-8/#comment-3301408
The Peasants Revolt was against the replacement of a progressive tax (richer households paid significantly more per person), with a flat tax, where the ordinary/poor people`s tax was tripled and the wealthy households` tax was a small fraction of what it was previously.
TPP in the UK is as relevant as the popular vote in the US – completely meaningless. And the UK were offered Preferential Voting and rejected it.
The Blair and Brown governments were centre-right, not centre-left. Deregulating financial institutions, privatizing public assets, and enacting public-private partnerships that undermine service quality and enrich a ruling class is not a left-wing agenda in any meaningful sense.
Blobbit:
Precisely. With a more likeable (and less obstinate) leader, a less ambitious agenda, and a willingness and capability to actual take advantage of the nightmare three years the Conservatives have had, the party may well have now been a position where they could actually start to address such economic issues. Instead, they are facing five long years as a near-powerless opposition in a (more or less) unicameral parliament.
TF&B
Yep and its interesting that many of the counties where those people came from today forms a ring of conservative seats encircling London with a few Labour or LibDem seats in some of the larger towns.
The Leaves have offered up the WTO rules as an easy and quick solution as a way of operating in the absence of a negotiated Agreement.
The problem with that is that Trump is intent on wrecking the WTO.
Currently he is blocking appointments to WTO conflict resolution tribunals (correct title?) for example.
Johnson (and the Tories) remind me of the SYRIZANS.
1. Both lied during the election campaign. Big lies.
2. Both thumped their chests about what the EU would have to do for them.
3. Both indulged in various forms of xenophobia and nationalism. The SYRIZANs were going to make the Germans pay for WW2. Again. The Brits were going to be neo-Imperialists. We shall fight them on the beaches. Global Britain. East of Suez, Take Two. Dunkirk. Dunkirk. Dunkirk.
3. The SYRIZANs found, to their unpleasant surprise, that the EU was waiting for them. Johnson will find the same thing. The EU non-negotiables will remain the EU non-negotiables. Hiding in the fridge won’t cut it. Bullshit won’t cut it. Eton Wah Wah won’t cut it. Bluster won’t cut it. Lying won’t cut it.
Johnson will be up against the grown ups in the room. And lots and lots of them will be quite looking forward to paying the arsehole back for all the very nasty bastard stuff he wrote about them for years and years and years.
Jo Swinson, leader of the LibDems, lost her seat! Could a former Tory now lead the LibDems?
Another thing that should be said about the market is that much of today’s market action would be retail investors with the institutional players placing their positions days or weeks ago.
Nicholas:
They were a damn sight more left-wing than Thatcher and Major’s successors would have ever been.
The UK is naturally a pretty conservative country, rather moreso than Australia (where we actually tend to elect Labor government more than once every blue moon, and even let them stick around for a few terms.) UK Labour has to do the best it can in such a situation. That doesn’t mean they can’t advocate and pursue a more left-leaning agenda than in the Blair and Brown years, but they have to be smart about it and be conscious of when they are pushing things too far. That’s what Corbyn never did.
Have we got it sorted so that we can all move on. How about we all go with:
The Blairites and the Centrists systematically undermined Corbyn and the Illuminati thereby gifting Johnson and the Truly Bad Guys a win.
Had Corbyn only been given clean air by his own Party he would have bestrode the Sceptered Isles like a Colossus.
The way for Labour to move forward is to expel any remnant Blairites and all the Bastard Centrists. This will ensure that Labour’s policies meet all the necessary tests for ideological purity. The Momentum, which did get a teensy weensy bit of a check in Dec 2019, will rejuvie itself even further.
The Conservatives had better enjoy the next five years like the Twilight of the Gods because the Labor Ideological Youf Wing is on the march. Again. Some more.
“So what? The Left need to get to a position where they can win an election. Corbyn had a go, Shorten to a lesser extent. Both failed, given the electoral system they operate in.”
***
I do not consider Shorten or the party he lead to be of the left. I view Bill in a similar light to Clinton – right faction candidates that nobody apart from their rusted on base wanted but who people voted for through gritted teeth because they weren’t as bad as their opponents. Those kind of candidates don’t inspire enthusiasm.
Corbyn is a victim of Brexit and his/Labour’s unclear position on it. This UK election was not a normal election. It was “The Brexit Election”, as the right-wing media kept reminding us. Labour got the messaging on Brexit wrong. People just wanted it done. Mr Beaumont was correct awhile ago when he said that Labour would have been better off politically if they had waited until after a hard Brexit had occurred to go to the election (paraphrasing from memory, correct me if I’m wrong AB). Corbyn made the call to oppose a hard Brexit not because of politics, but to save the people of the UK from a hard Brexit and the damage it would do to them. He has paid a high price for that.
Boerwar
Looking at the Johnson deal it opens all kind of doors that don’t look good at all.
Boerwar @ #412 Friday, December 13th, 2019 – 7:04 pm
Do you want Morris Dancing with that?
According to the Guardian blog:
Boris Johnson is due to address a rally in central London shortly.
According to the logo on the set, the government is now branding itself “the People’s Government”. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/dec/12/general-election-2019-uk-live-labour-tories-corbyn-boris-johnson-results-exit-poll
A Tory friend of mine has paid close attention to Boris Johnson, and does not like what she sees. She sees a Winston Churchill wannabe, who wishes he had a war to unify the British under his leadership. She says that that Boris frequently says that he wants to emulate Churchill, but is just really power hungry.
Now that he is branding his administration as the people’s government, how long before he gets involved in some catastrophic adventure to cement his hold on the British people?
Or is getting out of the EU enough of a war to energise his followers?
‘Mexicanbeemer says:
Friday, December 13, 2019 at 7:07 pm
Boerwar
Looking at the Johnson deal it opens all kind of doors that don’t look good at all.’
It might have escaped the notice of the Leavers of the extreme Right and the extreme Left, but in a globalized world the Big Guys beat the small guys. The small guys can, by banding together, meet the big guys on their own terms a bit better. That is what the EU is about.
By Jan 30, 2020, Britain will be what is known in the trade as a ‘middle power’. The Brexiteers tend to regard the US as their besties. The US, under Trump and under all his successors, will do what the US has always done to its ‘friends’: screw them on trade.
I’ve got it! Labour should have recruited Swinson! Now there’s a “centrist” (right-wing) leader that the Labor Right can really get behind!
D&M
The People’s Government of the Silent Britons with a Dear Leader to go with it.
Baby Trumps abound.
Britain has a functioning air force, navy and army which would make an invasion of Britain extremely expensive.
But they are not really kitted up for a reprise of D Day.
Firefox
The real life logic goes something like this.
If you appeal to an increasingly narrow group of people your voting base gets narrower and narrower. Now, I now that that is something of a circular argument.
Which is exactly why I am offering it up for your earnest consideration.
GG
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZjLATAUwao
The arrogance of Corbyn not resigning immediately is staggering but not unexpected seeing how tone deaf he always has been. I hope he stays on and on and on.
If I were Boris Johnson, I would graciously accept that the Scottish and Irish appear to disagree on Brexit, offer them immediate referendums on independence/reunification, waltz to victory on both and then be able to claim that the issue is settled once and for all eternity. I don’t think either Scotland or Northern Ireland is quite ready to vote to leave the UK just yet – it might be close, so it would be a risk, but still.
Of course, he won’t actually do this, which makes eventual independence/reunification much more likely in the long run.
Buce
I suggest you temper your glee.
Johnson will not be delivering nirvana.
The empire will not revive itself.
600 million jilted europeans are going to be quite happy to screw Johnson to the wall.
Trump is like a vulture, a turkey vulture but a vulture nevertheless.
The ex colonies will be happy to screw the Brits over.
I wonder if Labour will now actually take anti-semitism within their ranks as a serious problem?
Boerwar – you are always correct so I’ll have to defer to you. Apparently.
“Now, I now that that is something of a circular argument.”
***
Yeaaaaah I think I’ll pass on that mate lol. We’re both too stubborn and those circular arguments never end. William will send us to the naughty corner again.
Let’s just be frank about this. Remainers blew it. Corbyn and Labour got the messaging on Brexit all wrong. Swinson and the Lib Dems had a shocker of a campaign. The Tories had the clearly comprehensible message. People wanted Brexit to be resolved and to go away.
Scotland and NI are a different story. The UK is more divided than ever.
Buce
The reality is that, belatedly, Corbyn did realize that there was a problem with anti-semitism in the Labor Party.
Procedures were put in place that are working quite well.
There were those who were quite happy to conflate an anti-Israel posture, and criticisms of bad behaviour of the state of Israel, with anti-semitism and there is an urgent need for some intellectual integrity in addressing that issue. THAT particular problem is not inside the Labor Party, as you probably know.
What you probably be most concerned about is the virulent xenophobia, hatred of Pakistanis and Poles and the extreme sectarian hatred of muslims that is part an parcel of Farage’s tool kit and of the common hurly burly of the Conservatives. For reasons best known to people other than myself, this ugly, ugly side of Brexit scarcely rated a whisper in the Dec 2019 elections.
And, before I sign off from this blog, and go back to the main thread, Corbyn was absolutely correct about the US health giants coming in and destroying the Universal Health system known as the NHS.
This has happened in Australia to Medicare.
The tories, theirs and ours, have got smart: You never privatise anything, you just outsource the functions.
And, being bitchy, I remember Crikey (to whom I was a long-term subscriber until recently) being apoplectic for 3 years about the Labor / Shorten Mediscare (as in unfounded scare campaign!!) that possibly helped Labor in the 2016 election to hold Turnbull to a one seat majority.
Crikey maintains to this day that this was an unfounded scare campaign by Labor. But, over the last three years, many of Medicare’s functions have been outsourced and the Private Hospital sector continues to grow in Australia.
I have friends, some poor, some relatively well off, who have relied on Medicare to treat them when they needed treatment. Because, it was supposed to be Universal Health Care. The needed treatment is just not happening.
Friends (without private health insurance) who need tests (such as colonoscopies) to diagnose or rule out bowel cancer, are having to either pay $1.5 K to get them done in private hospitals, or resign themselves to a 3 – 6 mont wait, after which treatment will be harder if they do have bowel cancer.
And I also know people who need hip replacements, generally well-off, who believed that Medicare was Universal Health care, and paid their Medicare Levy because they earned a good amount, who now are on more than two-year waiting lists for their treatment, because with Universal Healthcare they did not feel they needed private health insurance.
Britain has been invaded and screwed for most of its history and they will survive a bit more screwing.
I think the result was due to people fed up with Brexit and just wanted it over with but they weren’t ready for a real left PM.
69 Seat Majority versus all other parties with 1 seat to declare – so I was a little off with my predictions. Sorry I was wrong.
If you make the reasonable assumption that DUP will generally vote with the Conservatives and Sinn Fein won’t take up their seats then the majority is 102.
Anyone still think Boris is an idiot? Want to kick off about how many kids? Will his neighbours release some more recordings?
I have to go now but I would like to offer a word of thanks to Messers Beaumont and Bowe for their efforts to enlighten us about the British election.
Thank you, gents.
A good job, IMO.
Boerwar,
And many thanks from me also!!
Boerwar
I have yet to see one instance of an allegation of anti-semitism that turned out to be just criticisms of bad behaviour of the state of Israel. Being Anti-Israeli is anti-semitic. The Labour procedures are not working well – there are still many cases that have not been dealt with for a very long time.
Agree with Boerwar
Now that European markets are open the pound has pulled back as those closer to the U.K take a different view than what Australians and Asians took.
“do not consider Shorten or the party he lead to be of the left”
Yes I know. He lost to the more right wing party because he wasn’t left enough. That was the excuse last time.
This time it’s because it wasn’t a normal election, otherwise Corbyn would have romped it in.
What’ll it be when the US re-elected Trump?
“Yes I know. He lost to the more right wing party because he wasn’t left enough. That was the excuse last time.”
***
I’m not here to make excuses for Labor’s failings. They can and do come up with plenty of those themselves.
Right factioner as Shorten is, I still preferenced Labor ahead of the Coalition and, along with my fellow Greens, saved the local Labor member from losing this seat to the Nats in the process. I’ll always preference Labor ahead of the Coalition.
In a normal election Corbyn would have had a better shot, yes. Impossible to say if he would have won or not.
As for the US, that depends entirely on who the Dems pick as their candidate. We shall see.
“Being Anti-Israeli is anti-semitic.”
***
Garbage. Just as criticising the Australian government isn’t the same as being racist against Australians, criticising the Israeli government isn’t the same as being racist against Jews. Not even close.
I remember when the left was proud of their working class roots and declared themselves to be the party of the worker now when they do not vote how the left wants them too they are called the “lower educated” Love it 🙂 Just when you think the edgamakated elite cant get dumber…
victory contains the seeds of defeat for Johnson…..
“I’m not here to make excuses for Labor’s failings”
So, why didn’t the Greens, the most leftward party, win?
(Or at least do a lot better)
Steelydan @ #439 Friday, December 13th, 2019 – 8:09 pm
Low information is the current abhorrent jargon.
Fuck that for a joke.
““I’m not here to make excuses for Labor’s failings”
So, why didn’t the Greens, the most leftward party, win?”
***
The Aus Greens did very well at the 2019 election. We increased our vote by almost 100,000 in the House and almost 300,000 in the Senate. We continue to go from strength to strength, despite being written off by all and sundry.
An interest aside is the original UKIP only managed to get 22,817 votes, less than the Yorkshire Party who got 29,000 votes. The Yorkshire Party are seeking autonomy for Yorkshire…. Yorkshire has a population that is comparable to Scotland… why they not seeking independence as well?
A lot of the people who voted for Johnson are going to be pretty disappointed when all the black, brown and Slavic people aren’t immediately expelled from the realm.
Provided, of course, that it doesn’t happen.
Too much analysis of the result – the Conservatives played to the racist instincts of the English of all classes and they won -that’s all
https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FScotNational%2Fstatus%2F1205251945411293184&psig=AOvVaw2LHQGzmfLHzuA9sj-Laa3p&ust=1576316558534000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CAIQjRxqFwoTCJCPv_eqsuYCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAD
https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1205251945411293184/photo/1
“The Aus Greens did very well at the 2019 election. We increased our vote by almost 100,000 in the House and almost 300,000 in the Senate. We continue to go from strength to strength, despite being written off by all and sundry.”
Which is very well for a party that isn’t going to form government and get to implement it’s policies.
Frankly, Lambie is more successful than either the Greens or the ALP. At least she had some influence on outcomes.
If you really believe in the Greens policies (or Corbyn’s or Sanders et. al.), you need to be asking what you can do to get government now. Not being content with doing “quite well”.
At the least, they need to hold the BOP. When did they do that last?
Sorry, i can often not post pictures 🙁
Sorry, i also can often not write English