The fortnightly Essential Research poll is out and, perhaps unsurprisingly for what will surely be its last survey for the year, it does not break its post-election habit of not publishing numbers on voting intention. What it does have is the monthly leadership ratings, which record little change for Scott Morrison (approval steady at 45%, disappoval up two to 43%) and favourable movement for Anthony Albanese (up two on approval to 39%, down six on disapproval to 28%). There is no preferred prime minister rating, but we do get evaluations on how the leaders have performed since the election: 11% say Scott Morrison has exceeded expectations, 41% that he has met them and 47% that he has fallen short of them, with Albanese’s respective ratings being 8%, 48% and 44%.
Also:
• The regular end-of-year question on for whom this has and hasn’t been a good year suggests people leaned positive about their own circumstances, albeit less so than last year; that it was a much better year for the government, which is hard to argue with on a purely political level; that it was a bad yet still much better year for “Australian politics in general”, the improvement presumably relating to the lack of a prime ministerial leadership coup; and that things were unambiguously positive only for large companies and the Australian cricket team.
• After two years of legalised same-sex marriage, 47% say it has had a positive impact, 15% negative and 38% neither.
• There remains negative sentiment towards unions, whom 49% say have too much power compared with 37% who disagreed. Fully 68% thought union officials should be disqualified merely for breaching administrative laws, with only 18% in disagreement, while 51% thought unions should be disqualified for taking unprotected industrial election, with 32% disagreeing. However, 62% agreed the government was “more concerned about the actions of union officials than the CEO’s of banks and other corporations”.
• Thirty-five per cent thought Scott Morrison should have stood Angus Taylor down from cabinet with 17% supporting his position, while 48% conceded they had not been following the issue.
• There was overwhelming support for the establishment of a federal ICAC, at 75% with only 8% opposed.
The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1035 respondents drawn from an online panel.
Nicola Gobbo was a party to a long interview last night on “7.30”. I watched it on YouTube later. McMurdo’s RC is now asking why did she do the interview when claiming to be too sick to appear before the RC? A reasonable question.
Cat
You should read the Bloomberg article. I posted links. Americans make it very clear. On coal LNP and Labor same same.
“Has Firefox responded to Cud Chewer’s expert historical analysis of Greens’ political mistakes, which he posted yesterday? Or has Firefox just started the day with a new box of rants?”
***
Dispatched with him yesterday, Cat. Read back through the old thread if you are so inclined.
Confessions @ #97 Wednesday, December 11th, 2019 – 10:24 am
And more galling photos like this:
Ms Gobbo is, reportedly, suing the Victorian police.
The reality – Voter volatility is increasing. Political partisanship is on the decline for the major parties. Political partisanship is rising for the Greens and Others.
Have a gander at page 28 Direction of political partisanship in Trends in Australian Political Opinion Results from the Australian Election Study 1987–2019 / ANU
https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/Trends-in-Australian-Political-Opinion-1987-2019.pdf
——–
The 2019 Australian Federal Election Results from the Australian Election Study:
https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2019-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf
This is good:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/some-crazy-folks-behind-mike-cannon-brookes-20b-sun-cable-project-22944/
Lots of construction work to be done for this and the 10 that come after it. A key to making this economical is prefabbing the panel mounts. I.e. manufacturing jobs.
Mavis,
As Nicola Gobbo clearly explained in the interview last night, which I intently watched, she is fearful of coming back to Australia with her children to testify at the RC as she has been informed that her children would be removed from her care. They are everything to her and she doesn’t want to lose them.
Also, as a result of a stroke she had in 2004 she has severe Trigeminal Neuralgia and could not stand the long hours required to give evidence. Also, it looked to me like the interview was conducted in fits and starts and edited together, suggesting she needed breaks.
Dandy Murray @ #106 Wednesday, December 11th, 2019 – 10:33 am
Exactly the sort of thing that I was trying to explain to the recalcitrant Boerwar, DM. 😐
Of course I support the Lib Dems.
Brexit is THE European tragedy of the century and perhaps beyond.
It will lead to a Britain become an isolated middle power which will project less power and which will get screwed in the inevitable FTAs.
The Tories have been quite open that two of the things they are looking forward to is screwing workers and the environment.
Corbyn’s approach of two bob each way has been a leadership disaster and a policy miasma. His gutlessness in falling prey to the englishness of it all is disgraceful. ‘Workers of the world unite’ has been transmuted into lets, de facto, tell the Pakis and the Poles what is what. Pathetic Little Englandism.
But, but, but… given the electoral circumstances I would NOT do what the British Greens are doing. Neither would I vote for the Lib Dems.
I would vote for Corbyn. ugggghhh. What a choice!
Michael McCormack says that although CC is a factor, most of the fires are caused by Little Lucifers running around with matches, and meanwhile the gov is doing all that is necessary by meeting Paris targets.
_________
It gives one such satisfaction to know that our country is in the hands of such informed, intelligent people!
I imagine there would be some who would perceive Boerwar as an “extreme nutter” and “idealogue”.
Other findings from the 2019 AES:
A divided electorate?
> Men were much more likely to vote for the Coalition than
women (men: 48%; women: 38%). Women were more likely
than men to vote for the Greens (men: 9%; women: 15%).
> Gender differences in voting have changed over time. In
the 1990s men were slightly more likely to vote Labor than
women, in recent elections women have become more likely
to vote Labor.
> There is evidence of a growing divide between the voting
behavior of younger and older generations. The 2019
election represented the lowest Liberal party vote on record
for those under 35 (23%), and the highest ever vote for the
Greens (28%).
> Working class voters are much more likely to vote Labor
than middle class voters (working class: 41%; middle class:
29%). Long-term trends show an erosion of Labor’s working
class base.
> Asset ownership, including property and shares, was strongly
associated with a higher vote for the Coalition.
BK
I have noticed that there is far more “Of course climate change is happening” from the MPs, but still they don’t like to rebel too much, so they dare not make any useful suggestions on what should be done.
They’re sort of sidling towards reality.
BW says:
“Corbyn’s approach of two bob each way has been a leadership disaster and a policy miasma.”
Do we recognize any other parties that have been trying to walk both sides of the street on other issues?
There are times where it is beneficial to do so, to sit and wait. There are other times where it looks 2-faced and stupid.
Time for reality checks.
The long term trend in Australian manufacturing is down hill.
The notion that killing off $65 billion in exports will reverse the trend is… ludicrous.
But wait there is more.
Rural and regional workers who will be displaced by the wholesale Greens destruction of their jobs are not necessarily the kind of workers who will move easily into other work.
Unemployment in rural and regional areas is already much higher than in the Inner Urbs.
Education and health levels are already lower.
There are already around three quarters of a million people who are unemployed and another 2 million who are underemployed who are ready to soak up an extra hours. Many of those will already have the skill sets to move into any new employment created.
The real world experiences of people who lost their jobs in the GFC, the workers who lost their jobs in the automotive industries, and the workers who were displaced from the timber industry SHOULD be instructive. Except that the Inner Urbs urgers do not have a skerrick of a notion of what all that means. Many of them have not worked again. At all.
After all, they are agile, competitive knowledge industry hipsters.
AZ
My views on Corbyn are based/biased by my being a europhile.
Against that measure he has been an ignoble, supine, vacillating, leadership failure, regardless of whether he wins the prime ministership this week.
“Of course I support the Lib Dems.”
***
But of course! Who else would you support?
Note the position of the Lib Dems in the first compass and the position of the ALP in the second…
https://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2019
Federal Minister for Environment Sussan Ley has now popped up to agree CC is a real thing.
Liberal MPs say there’s no use ‘beating around the bush’ — bushfires are stoked by climate change
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-11/matt-kean-blames-bushfires-on-climate-change/11787498
Firefox says:
Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 10:10 am
Labor’s attempt to win over the rabid far-right isn’t working at all
Labor aim to re-connect with mining communities. The readership of the Australian would not include too many miners. It’s just facile to describe mining employees as ‘far right’. They’re working people. They very correctly conclude that the Greens despise them, have insulted them and have sought to exploit them politically. The Greens are Thatcherite in this respect. They deserve undying rejection by these communities.
This is another example of the path Labor will have to follow if they are to rebuild their plurality. They must differentiate themselves from the Greens, disavow Green Herrings and put the Greens next-to-last on their HTVs.
BW,
No argument from me on the issue of the EU and the UK.
However the whole policy suite that he proposing would be a well needed anti-dote to the likes of Trump, Johnson, Morrison.
Pegasus
This is getting very funny, sort of. Suddenly they’re all rushing to “believe”.
BK
‘Little Lucifers’ is, presumably, not an accident.
It is a religious reference. Devils v the Angels.
It personalizes the science into a focus on the human hate figures.
And it matches neatly Faruqi’s ‘Fuck off!’
‘Rational’ Greens and Nationals debate has descended into ‘Kill the Pig’.
So Borewar where is the comparable figure for the CO2 emissions and nutrients imported by Australia to make an apple’s for apple’s comparison?
State government funding of independent and Catholic schools in Victoria
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/elite-schools-need-not-apply-to-402m-private-school-building-fund-20191210-p53img.html
‘Alpha Zero says:
Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 10:48 am
BW,
No argument from me on the issue of the EU and the UK.
However the whole policy suite that he proposing would be a well needed anti-dote to the likes of Trump, Johnson, Morrison.’
Yep. Which is why I would vote for Johnson. He is not certifiably insane. The Greens are, as usual, spoilers and destroyers. What a waste. The Lib Dems will probably not form a BOP do their remainiac intentions won’t count. I don’t live in Scotland. Johnson is a scoundrel. That would leave Johnson as, quite clearly, the lesser of two rather rank evils.
‘it’s time says:
Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 10:51 am
So Borewar where is the comparable figure for the CO2 emissions and nutrients imported by Australia to make an apple’s for apple’s comparison?’
That is an excellent question. I am sure that the Greens Inner Urban consumers, who would top the pile of CO2 consumers per capita in Australia, have the answer to that.
RI says:
Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 10:48 am
Labor aim to re-connect with mining communities.
This is another example of the path Labor will have to follow if they are to rebuild their plurality. They must differentiate themselves from the Greens, disavow Green Herrings and put the Greens next-to-last on their HTVs.
________________
And the more you say that Labor is different than the Greens the more the mining communities won’t believe you. Face it, the Greens have snookered Labor good and proper. Everything is proceeding as Bob Brown has foreseen.
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 10:52 am
“Yep. Which is why I would vote for Johnson.”
***
Oh dear…
Johnson worked well as a clown, but as a PM? Lord save us!
Firefox
I assume that you are more or less totally ignorant of the importance of, and the relative benefits of, the Europe project. You would have voted for Nader, got Bush and not noticed that you cost Gore the POTUS job. Right now you would be dicking around with a Greens vote in the UK, increasing the risk that Johnson will trounce Corbyn. In between you would be ranting about fuck off and kill the pig. Juvie stuff.
The EU project has lifted hundreds of millions of Europeans from poverty. It has ensured that Europe has never been more democratic. It has kept Putin’s Russian Bear at bay. It has kept a pan-European peace at levels never before seen in the entire history of Europe. It has been very, very active in promoting peace keeping efforts around the globe. Its aid budget is massive.
The Little Englanders, the Empire Nostalgics, the Eton bovver boys, the Xenophobes, the far Left extremists, and the racists are in the process of wrecking Britain’s involvement in, and support for, this magnificent achievement.
Yes. He doth protest too much.
Labor would do best to ignore the Greens and never let the word pass its lips. Sssshhhh.
BW,
Time for reality checks…
You’ve not unpacked the drivers of those trends at all.
One immutable comparative advantage Australia has, over pretty much anywhere else in the world, is access to the best wind and solar resources there are. We need to harness this to drive our future prosperity.
None of it is in the inner urbs.
*Off to work now*
C@t,
A lot of Rifkin’s ideas about industrial transformations you’ve mentioned were originally discussed in the book “Third Industrial Revolution”.
The “Third Industrial Revolution” doco on SBS On Demand or YouTube is well worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QX3M8Ka9vUA
C@tmomma:
[‘As Nicola Gobbo clearly explained in the interview last night, which I intently watched, she is fearful of coming back to Australia with her children to testify at the RC as she has been informed that her children would be removed from her care.’]
Yes, I realise that, and her fears are well-founded. It was a fascinating interview, telling the interviewer that she was more fearful of VicPol than underworld figures, having been groomed as a law student.
But McMurdo, C says that the reason she gave for not fronting the RC was/is based on her health status, not on the fears she revealed last night. The Royal Commission is well-resourced; it could easily manage her safety, and her children could remain in the secret overseas location, where she has some assistance.
I have a good deal of empathy for her. She was out of her depth by representing some of the worst types.
Very little training is provided as to how deal with clients who commit murder and other serious crimes at the drop of a hat. Perhaps the RC will make recommendations thereof. Certainly, she should not have socialised with them – that’s a no, no. But I can see how it could happen. Anyway, some of the big guns are due to give evidence, and that could result in charges being laid against them.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-11/nicola-gobbo-interview-prompts-questions-at-royal-commission/11787748
Righto Boer. Why don’t you explain to us “why [you] would vote for Johnson” again. Or is it Swinson? Johnson? Swinson? Let me know when you decide which right winger you like best.
lizzie
The ‘Prime Ministerialness ‘ oozes from every pore 🙂
People in the bush know that the Greens want them to live in caves. They don’t have to go through the following list to figure that out:
Close down:
Beef feedlots
Piggeries
Poultry sheds
Biofuel operations
Native forestry industry
Rodeos
Camp drafts
Dog racing
Trots racing
Jumps racing
Live exports of beef
Live exports of sheep
Live exports of goats
Circus animals
Duck hunting
Kennel breeding of dogs
Rabbit hunting
Kangaroo hunting
Buffalo hunting
Deer hunting
Pig hunting
Muttonbird harvesting
Theme park animals
Live exports of greyhounds
All uranium mines
Lucas Heights reactor/radiation medical production
All uranium exports
All coal mines
All conventional gas production facilities
All coal seam gas production facilities
Deep sea bottom trawling
All oil production facilities
Beef farming
Sheep farming
Cotton industry
Warship manufacturing
Fighter component manufacturing
Infantry fighting vehicle manufacturing
The Singapore Air training facility in Queensland
The three joint spy bases
Around a dozen major fleet, air and army bases
All facilities that enable the deployment of nuclear weapons – whatever that means.
These are all definites and flow directly from stated policies on the Australian Greens policy site.
There is reason to believe that the following would be added to the bans list:
Recreational angling
Thoroughbred racing
On current indications, we might as well add the irrigated almond industry because the Greens have a gut hate for this sort of industry. Wine grape industry? Not so much. Might interrupt the flow of Chardonney?
Farmers contemplating voting for the Greens know they face dozens of bans and prohibitions. It is all there in the Greens policies. Everything from live exports trhough rodeos and shooting bunnies will be banned.
But there is more to it than that. Just read the Greens policies. It is all there in black and white. Hidden in plain sight. All sorts of decisions that farmers currently make will be regulated, overseen and hijacked. Under Greens policies, farmers:
1. Will be expected to work to a National Strategic Plan. Gosplan?
2. Will be saddled with ‘community decision making’ about farming. Citizens committees?
3. Will be saddled with Indigenous involvement in farm decisions.
4. Will be regulated to force them to provide ecosystem services.
5. Will be regulated on a new set of animal welfare standards that will be enforced by a National Authority that will monitor and punish farmers as required.
‘Firefox says:
Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 11:05 am
Righto Boer. Why don’t you explain to us “why [you] would vote for Johnson” again. Or is it Swinson? Johnson? Swinson? Let me know when you decide which right winger you like best.’
Typo. Were I a UK voter I would vote for Corbyn.
“Labor aim to re-connect with mining communities. ”
Maybe they could connect with those communities by offering them a future. Coal isn’t going to be a major export industry or energy source inside a generation. Trade sanctions on major coal-exporters are a genuine possibility within a decade.
Germany has transitioned from coal by doing the following:
– giving older workers job priority in the declining industry that remain
– workers in the middle age bands are offered retraining or ongoing work
– younger workers are retrained
– retraining occurs on full wages
It’s a real problem and requires a real solution and some innovation with unions onboard. Labor is best placed to do this. Wishing the future trends away isnt going to help those communities in the end.
The NSW Environment Minister is coming out with all the right arguments. Wow! He’s an actual person and not a denier clone. Asked how the Fed Libs will react to what he’s saying, he replied “That’s up to them.” Bam!
‘Dandy Murray says:
Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 11:03 am
BW,
Time for reality checks…
You’ve not unpacked the drivers of those trends at all.
One immutable comparative advantage Australia has, over pretty much anywhere else in the world, is access to the best wind and solar resources there are. We need to harness this to drive our future prosperity.
None of it is in the inner urbs.
*Off to work now*
My point is more general. Those who are telling rural people they will be ‘transitioned’ are ignoring all the current evidence.
‘lizzie says:
Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 11:08 am
The NSW Environment Minister is coming out with all the right arguments. Wow! He’s an actual person and not a denier clone. Asked how the Fed Libs will react to what he’s saying, he replied “That’s up to them.” Bam!’
He lives in a Sydney bubble.
When asked about the Bushfire emergency, Mr Morrison responded that he does not comment on ‘In smoke matters.’
lefty e
Not like for like.
Germany has a massive export-oriented manufacturing base.
“Typo. Were I a UK voter I would vote for Corbyn.”
***
Mate you’re all over the shop. First it was Swinson and the Lib Dems, then it was Johnson and the Tories (I’ll be fair and let you retract that error), now it’s Corbyn and Labour, even though you attack the left at every opportunity. Which is it? Make up your mind!
C@tmomma:
I would add that her ‘severe Trigeminal Neuralgia’ could be managed by providing breaks while giving evidence, either in person or via Skype.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 11:06 am
People in the bush know that the Greens want them to live in caves.
______________________
They will have the choice of a cave or a kolkhoz.
We’re still fighting city freeways after half a century
https://theconversation.com/were-still-fighting-city-freeways-after-half-a-century-127722
——–
State government in the pocket of Transurban:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/03/vic-parliament-approves-10-year-citylink-toll-gouge/
Australia ranked in bottom 5 nations for climate change action.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/cause-for-great-concern-australia-ranked-last-in-global-assessment-on-climate-change-action
It would appear, ScoMo and good one Angus, that you are fooling no one.