Essential Research: that was the year that was

One last hurrah for 2019 from Essential Research finds an improvement in Anthony Albanese’s ratings, but little change for Scott Morrison.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll is out and, perhaps unsurprisingly for what will surely be its last survey for the year, it does not break its post-election habit of not publishing numbers on voting intention. What it does have is the monthly leadership ratings, which record little change for Scott Morrison (approval steady at 45%, disappoval up two to 43%) and favourable movement for Anthony Albanese (up two on approval to 39%, down six on disapproval to 28%). There is no preferred prime minister rating, but we do get evaluations on how the leaders have performed since the election: 11% say Scott Morrison has exceeded expectations, 41% that he has met them and 47% that he has fallen short of them, with Albanese’s respective ratings being 8%, 48% and 44%.

Also:

• The regular end-of-year question on for whom this has and hasn’t been a good year suggests people leaned positive about their own circumstances, albeit less so than last year; that it was a much better year for the government, which is hard to argue with on a purely political level; that it was a bad yet still much better year for “Australian politics in general”, the improvement presumably relating to the lack of a prime ministerial leadership coup; and that things were unambiguously positive only for large companies and the Australian cricket team.

• After two years of legalised same-sex marriage, 47% say it has had a positive impact, 15% negative and 38% neither.

• There remains negative sentiment towards unions, whom 49% say have too much power compared with 37% who disagreed. Fully 68% thought union officials should be disqualified merely for breaching administrative laws, with only 18% in disagreement, while 51% thought unions should be disqualified for taking unprotected industrial election, with 32% disagreeing. However, 62% agreed the government was “more concerned about the actions of union officials than the CEO’s of banks and other corporations”.

• Thirty-five per cent thought Scott Morrison should have stood Angus Taylor down from cabinet with 17% supporting his position, while 48% conceded they had not been following the issue.

• There was overwhelming support for the establishment of a federal ICAC, at 75% with only 8% opposed.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1035 respondents drawn from an online panel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,940 comments on “Essential Research: that was the year that was”

Comments Page 4 of 39
1 … 3 4 5 … 39

  1. nath says:
    Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 11:15 am

    Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 11:06 am

    People in the bush know that the Greens want them to live in caves.
    ______________________
    They will have the choice of a cave or a kolkhoz.

    Da. Or, comrade kulak, we make all the jokes here.

  2. The Greenland Ice Sheet is rapidly melting, having lost 3.8 trillion tons of ice between 1992 and 2018, a new study from NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) finds. The study combined 26 independent satellite datasets to track global warming’s effect on Greenland, one of the largest ice sheets on Earth, and the ice sheet melt’s impact on rising sea levels. The findings, which forecast an approximate 3 to 5 inches (70 to 130 millimeters) of global sea level rise by 2100, are in alignment with previous worst-case projections if the average rate of Greenland’s ice loss continues.

    Changes to the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are of considerable societal importance, as they directly impact global sea levels, which are a result of climate change. As glaciers and ice sheets melt, they add more water to the ocean. Increasing rates of global warming have accelerated Greenland’s ice mass loss from 25 billion tons per year in the 1990s to a current average of 234 billion tons per year. This means that Greenland’s ice is melting on average seven times faster today than it was at the beginning of the study period. The Greenland Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise the sea level by 24 feet (7.4 meters).

    https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2019-243&rn=news.xml&rst=7556

  3. The people who gave us Bush instead of Gore are now trying to tell us that Morrison is better than Shorten and that Johnson is better than Corbyn.
    Learned nothing. Forgotten everything.

  5. The notion that killing off $65 billion in exports will reverse the trend is… ludicrous.

    No, Boerwar, your analysis is simplistic.

    The numbers have been done and it is a fact that by a factor of about 10 to 1 the number of jobs created over the past decade have been predominantly in the cities. It’s only Labor that wants to reverse the trend by encouraging manufacturing in the Regions and Mining in Rural areas. Not to mention the fact that a large number of workers have come from the regions and the cities to go into mining and would gladly come back if offered gainful and well-paying employment elsewhere. A lot of them are Tradies who downed tools to go make money in the mines. So, if guaranteed lots of well-paying work they would gladly swap back.

    And that work will come. And thermal coal won’t be bringing in $75 Billion per year into Australia forever. Within 20 or so years it will be a stranded asset for Australia. There can be more than one Poseidon in Australia.

    There is a sober reality that looks to the future, ie Labor, and there is The Greens. 🙂

    Of course we all know the Coalition are as unrealistic as The Greens but with backward-looking attitudes.

  6. I wonder if ANY Australian journo or opposition figure will have the gumption to ask ScoMo: if we’re “acting on climate” as you claim, why are we ranked LAST globally for Climate Change Action?

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/cause-for-great-concern-australia-ranked-last-in-global-assessment-on-climate-change-action

    Australia’s climate policy rating was ranked the lowest in the world with analysts noting that “the newly elected government continued to worsen performance at both national and international levels.”

  7. There will be no relief for drought-ravaged regions over the summer, with Bureau of Meteorology officials telling a meeting of state and federal ministers there would be no significant rain until at least April.

    The ministers gathered in Moree, in NSW’s northwest, to discuss the best strategies to combat the enduring drought.

    Federal Drought and Water Resources Minister David Littleproud vowed to work with drought co-ordinator-general Shane Stone by February to cut bureaucratic red tape so desperate farmers did not have to make separate state and federal applications for assistance.

    Mr Littleproud said he was hopeful states would do more to assist farmers after South Australia announced on Tuesday that it would give rebates on council rates and pastoral leases for drought-affected farmers.

    “NSW, Queensland and Victoria are looking very lean for rain and below-average rainfall through summer and heading into next winter,” NSW Agriculture Minister Adam Marshall said of the BoM briefing. “The outlook is nothing for NSW anywhere near drought-breaking until April-May next year.”

  8. lefty e @ #150 Wednesday, December 11th, 2019 – 11:18 am

    Australia ranked in bottom 5 nations for climate change action.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/cause-for-great-concern-australia-ranked-last-in-global-assessment-on-climate-change-action

    It would appear, ScoMo and good one Angus, that you are fooling no one.

    I expect Labor will be all over this today, tomorrow and the days and weeks after that.
    No they won’t Mundo.
    OK.
    Shut-up then.
    I have.

  10. lefty e @ #156 Wednesday, December 11th, 2019 – 11:28 am

    I wonder if ANY Australian journo or opposition figure will have the gumption to ask ScoMo: if we’re “acting on climate” as you claim, why are we ranked LAST globally for Climate Change Action?

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/cause-for-great-concern-australia-ranked-last-in-global-assessment-on-climate-change-action

    Australia’s climate policy rating was ranked the lowest in the world with analysts noting that “the newly elected government continued to worsen performance at both national and international levels.”

    Why don’t we ask actual journalists ourselves. All of us. All day long.

  14. Expect family talks about climate change this Christmas? Take tips from Greta Thunberg on how to stay on topic

    https://theconversation.com/expect-family-talks-about-climate-change-this-christmas-take-tips-from-greta-thunberg-124426

    :::
    Thunberg’s public statements consistently communicate a few key points:

    * the planet is warming, we are responsible and we need to fix it
    * hope is fine, but it is pointless without action
    * economic concerns are irrelevant in the face of collapsing ecosystems
    *if we do not fix this, future generations will remember us for our failures.

    Each time Thunberg speaks, these issues are centre-stage. She is not distracted by rhetoric, straw-man arguments, personal abuse, or by condescension or appeals to economic theory.

    For example in a TED talk in March, Thunberg responds with uncommon clarity to those who seek to put the burden of action back on her:

    Some people say that I should study to become a climate scientist so that I can “solve the climate crisis.” But the climate crisis has already been solved. We already have all the facts and solutions.
    ::
    My uncle might respond by saying I shouldn’t use any energy at all. Maybe he’ll say “then stop driving cars” or “don’t turn on your TV”.

    But this response is not addressing the point at issue – that renewable energy generates less carbon than fossil fuels. It is talking about something else: that any use of power is bad. Really, it’s not so much about using power as how that power is generated.

    Moving off the point at issue is a classic “strawman” attack, when the argument is misrepresented and argued from that point.

    Strawmen abound on PB.

  15. bakunin,
    Yes, I will watch that. However, my main point remains, Labor are for natural evolution, The Greens are for revolution. So I will continue to support Labor’s plans.

  16. Check our top ten export industries. The final number is the 5 year trend.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p/AustraliaTrade

    Fossil fuels (aside from natural gas) are the ONLY ones declining in this 5 yr period.

    Let’s think about the others:

    Iron Ore – new tech is allowing processing with renewables, for the first time able to generate the heat necessary. Hydrogen processing has a real future.

    Education services: how is Sydney on fire playing with the international students crowd? Coal-dependence will root this one up. And tourism at #5?

    And agricuture – well that speaks for itself.

    We have to make choices, or the world will do it for us.

    Table 2: Australia’s top 15 export products
    Rank Commodity 2013 2014 2015 2015 5 year growth trend
    A$m A$m A$m % share of total %
    1 Iron ores & concentrates 69 492 66 008 49 060 15.5 0.9
    2 Coal 39 805 37 999 37 031 11.7 –3.9
    3 Education-related travel services 15 010 17 037 18 801 5.9 3.3
    4 Natural gas 14 602 17 743 16 456 5.2 13.0
    5 Personal travel (excl. education) services 13 171 14 187 15 943 5.0 6.2
    6 Gold 13 898 13 460 14 500 4.6 –1.2
    7 Beef, f.c.f. (fresh, chilled or frozen) 5 695 7 751 9 296 2.9 16.9
    8 Aluminium ores & conc. (incl. alumina) 5 904 6 336 7 493 2.4 6.8
    9 Crude petroleum 9 016 10 564 6 036 1.9 –8.8
    10 Wheat 6 085 5 920 5 814 1.8 4.4

  17. How to use critical thinking to spot false climate claims

    https://theconversation.com/how-to-use-critical-thinking-to-spot-false-climate-claims-91314

    Much of the public discussion about climate science consists of a stream of assertions. The climate is changing or it isn’t; carbon dioxide causes global warming or it doesn’t; humans are partly responsible or they are not; scientists have a rigorous process of peer review or they don’t, and so on.

    Despite scientists’ best efforts at communicating with the public, not everyone knows enough about the underlying science to make a call one way or the other. Not only is climate science very complex, but it has also been targeted by deliberate obfuscation campaigns.
    :::
    We applied this simple method to 42 common climate-contrarian arguments, and found that all of them contained errors in reasoning that are independent of the science itself.
    :::
    Fake news may be hard to spot, but fake arguments don’t have to be.

  18. Cat

    It’s simple. Albo is doing exactly the wrong thing on coal at exactly the wrong time.

    Keeping up a Labor track record.

    He should have let Queensland Labor carry the can alone.
    Kept his distance. But no. Bad political judgement is we have to now back coal promotion.

    This while millions suffer from reality biting back.
    You have even seen the media doing a pivot.
    Not Labor.

  19. This is a horrible outlook…

    “We’ve got massive fires that are too big to put out without rain. They are going to get bigger and they are going to come into Sydney suburbs, the South Coast, the Central Coast.”

    Mr Mullins said that was more than three times the previous record number of homes lost, with destruction this year so far confined to regional areas.

    “Formerly all of our big losses have been places like the Blue Mountains, Sutherland, Warringah and Lane Cove,” he warned.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/more-than-720-homes-lost-in-nsw-fires-as-sydney-told-to-brace-for-huge-losses-20191211-p53iv5.html

  20. 5 human rights issues that defined 2019

    https://theconversation.com/5-human-rights-issues-that-defined-2019-126939

    One of this year’s most refreshing developments was the youth-led action on climate change. It brought together environment and human rights concerns, inspiring an estimated 300,000 Australians to join a global strike in September.
    :::
    And, of course, many were moved to strike because the brave and passionate voices of Greta Thunberg and other children who are demanding action for the sake of future generations.

    We hear them loud and clear – and call on Australia’s leaders to listen and act.

    Grassroots political activism, domestically and internationally, is increasing and will continue; it’s unstoppable now.

    Trust in governments at an all time low and increasing number of citizens are questioning the status quo.

    Change will come. It’s a matter of how soon.

  21. I think we will have more admissions from the COALition climate deniers that climate change is connected to bushfires but never an admission that it is anthropogenic. It’ll be natural cycles or not caused by CO2 as the fallback position.

  22. Sergey Lavrov trolled Trump on elections and disclosing classified info after Oval Office meeting

    Russian Federation Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Tuesday — the same day two articles of impeachment were released against the Republican leader.

    This was Trump’s second meeting in the Oval Office with Lavrov, which former Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul found shocking.

    Following the meeting, as Trump left for a 2020 campaign rally, Lavrov spoke to reporters and “trolled” the leader of the free world.

    So Sergey Lavrov is just changing the batteries in all the bugs in the oval?

    — Molly Jong-Fast (@MollyJongFast)

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/sergey-lavrov-trolled-trump-on-elections-and-disclosing-classified-info-after-oval-office-meeting/

  23. I’d be delighted if Corbyn pulled a rabbit out of a hat tomorrow. Five years of Johnson is too much to bear, along with Trump, and Morrison. Kinnock’s politics were/are similar to Corbyn’s, though he was not too socialist to accept an elevation to the Lords. Polling predicted he would he win in’92, or that it would result in a hung parliament. The polls got it wrong. I hope they’re proved wrong tomorrow.

  24. CNN’s Toobin rips into Bill Barr’s ‘out of control’ attacks on the FBI: ‘Such outrageous behavior’

    On Tuesday’s edition of CNN’s “The Situation Room,” chief legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin blasted Attorney General William Barr for his ongoing attempts to undermine the inspector general report clearing the FBI of Republican conspiracy theories.

    “Bill Barr is going to keep investigating the FBI until someone condemns him the way he wants it and the way people on Fox News want it,” said Toobin. “This is such outrageous behavior by the attorney general.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/cnns-toobin-rips-into-bill-barrs-out-of-control-attacks-on-the-fbi-such-outrageous-behavior/

  25. swamprat says:
    Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 10:05 am
    I noticed the ignorant Attorney General, Porter, refer about 20 times to the St Vincents de Paul Society.

    I wonder why he emphasised always this Catholic charity which does NOT discriminate in membership nor in employment on religious grounds as the exempler of the discrimination favoured by the Government.

    Is it a threat to the Society that the Liberals wants to make religious discrimination mandatory?

    I reckon that most organisations run by mainstream churches (like Vinnies, Anglicare or Uniting Care) are relatively non discriminatory and they are not the ones calling for Morrison’s “religious freedom” laws. They practise the “social justice gospel” not the “prosperity gospel” espoused by Hillsong and the happy clappers.

    In fact, most of the push for “religious freedom” laws seems to be coming from the Hillsong types as represented by the ACL. Reading the ACL website, it is dominated by them pushing for laws to regulate the lives of others and with an unhealthy emphasis on matters related to sex.


  27. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 11:39 am

    Cat

    It’s simple. Albo is doing exactly the wrong thing on coal at exactly the wrong time.

    Keeping up a Labor track record.

    He should have let Queensland Labor carry the can alone.
    Kept his distance. But no. Bad political judgement is we have to now back coal promotion.

    This while millions suffer from reality biting back.
    You have even seen the media doing a pivot.
    Not Labor.

    So says a supporter of a party that has done nothing for the environment .
    A party that has secret conferences.
    A parties who’s platform comes out of RDN office, instead of membership conferences.
    A party that has destroyed the wilderness society because they actual wanted environmental action.
    A party that can’t get more than 10% of the vote.
    A party that has destroyed much more than it has created in the last 10 years.

    I’m sorry mate; a member of the sad sad joke party stating Albo has got it wrong is a bit of a joke.

  28. Okay.
    Prediction time.
    Keir Starmer will replace Corbyn following Labour’s election defeat, then go on to win handsomely in 5 years….or possible at an early election if Boris really fucks up….but that probably won’t happen.

  29. Conservative Jennifer Rubin : The ‘travesty’ is William Barr

    William P. Barr’s Tuesday interview with NBC News was certainly the most dishonest, frightful and deplorable given by an attorney general in modern times. He attacked the just-released inspector general report and excoriated the FBI for a “travesty” in investigating Russian manipulation of our 2016 election. His false — deliberately false — assertions were jaw-dropping:

    Barr’s conduct is nothing short of disgraceful and continues his pattern of misstating facts and out-and-out lying about documents to protect President Trump. The House Judiciary Committee should call him up to the Hill and make him explain his remarks, this time under oath.

    MORE : https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/12/10/travesty-is-william-barr/

  32. Cat

    Albo has told voters he is for coal exports. Read the article. The Americans don’t have a dog in Australias politics. Just the facts of what they see.

    It cuts down your Labor spin big time

    Labor selling out the environment for votes exposed

  33. Alpha Zero says:

    Alright BW, imagine that the Labor party didn’t exist.

    Which parties policies would you prefer, LNP or Green?

    I’d shoot myself.

    The real world choice would between a gang of pros who are wrecking the world, and a gang of amateurs who want to wreck the world, only in a different way.

  37. Mavis
    Nicole Gobbo comes from a well known old money elite legal family so I don’t buy the idea she was poorly trained and she did choose to socialise with her clients then inform on them. A general rule of thumb is that the establishment and the underworld stay out of each others way except for when the establishment lawyers represent the underworld in court.

  41. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 12:12 pm

    Cat

    Another way of putting my last post. Labor being bipartisan with the LNP. That’s same same.

    So says the man who supports the do nothing party. Green stunts will not fix Global worming.

  43. So how many have been killed so far in NSW by the way high PM 2.5 ? How many more are expected to die ? Come on journos start getting those numbers. You can guarantee that would get our ‘polypticians’ off their arses and out of their “not the time to talk about it” + “We have done everything possible to prepare” safety capsule.
    ——————————————–
    Public Health: Sources and Effects of PM2.5

    ……. Exposure to high concentrations of PM (e.g. during short-term pollution episodes) can also exacerbate lung and heart conditions, significantly affecting quality of life, and increase deaths and hospital admissions.
    https://laqm.defra.gov.uk/public-health/pm25.html

  46. Ryan Struyk
    @ryanstruyk
    ·
    5h
    New 2020 national Quinnipiac poll among black voters:

    Biden 51% (!!)
    Sanders 13%
    Warren 12%
    Don’t know 10%
    Bloomberg 4%
    Buttigieg 2%
    Klobuchar 2%
    Steyer 2%
    Yang 2%
    Everyone else 1% or less

  47. Boerwar says: Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 12:14 pm

    Putin will be loving what Johnson and Corbyn have ‘achieved’ for the UK and what Trump has achieved for the US.

    Absolutely loving it.

    ********************************************************************

    Putin has achieved more in a few short years than all the rest of the Russian leaders have achieved in the 70 or so years after WW2 to destabilise the pillars of what America is built upon Security, FBI, Intelligence, NATO …….all smoking ruins ……. he has America/Western Alliances in Total Chaos for next to no effort – a bank of hackers and manipulation of social medias to turn American voters and voting processes …. all without a bullet being fired …

  50. frednk @ #177 Wednesday, December 11th, 2019 – 11:59 am


    guytaur says:
    Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 11:39 am

    Cat

    It’s simple. Albo is doing exactly the wrong thing on coal at exactly the wrong time.

    Keeping up a Labor track record.

    He should have let Queensland Labor carry the can alone.
    Kept his distance. But no. Bad political judgement is we have to now back coal promotion.

    This while millions suffer from reality biting back.
    You have even seen the media doing a pivot.
    Not Labor.

    So says a supporter of a party that has done nothing for the environment .
    A party that has secret conferences.
    A parties who’s platform comes out of RDN office, instead of membership conferences.
    A party that has destroyed the wilderness society because they actual wanted environmental action.
    A party that can’t get more than 10% of the vote.
    A party that has destroyed much more than it has created in the last 10 years.

    I’m sorry mate; a member of the sad sad joke party stating Albo has got it wrong is a bit of a joke.

    When the Greens are peeved you know Labor is on the right track to Government.

Comments Page 4 of 39
1 … 3 4 5 … 39

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *