In the wake of Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill’s federal electoral post-mortem for Labor, two post-election reviews have emerged from the Liberal Party, with very different tales to tell – one from the May 2019 federal triumph, the other from the November 2018 Victorian state disaster.
The first of these was conducted by Arthur Sinodinos and Steven Joyce, the latter being a former cabinet minister and campaign director for the conservative National Party in New Zealand. It seems we only get to see the executive summary and recommendations, the general tenor of which is that, while all concerned are to be congratulated on a job well done, the party benefited from a “poor Labor Party campaign” and shouldn’t get too cocky. Points of interest:
• It would seem the notion of introducing optional preferential voting has caught the fancy of some in the party. The report recommends the party “undertake analytical work to determine the opportunities and risks” – presumably with respect to itself – “before making any decision to request such a change”.
• Perhaps relatedly, the report says the party should work closer with the Nationals to avoid three-cornered contests. These may have handicapped the party in Gilmore, the one seat it lost to Labor in New South Wales outside Victoria.
• The report comes out for voter identification at the polling booth, a dubious notion that nonetheless did no real harm when it briefly operated in Queensland in 2015, and electronic certified lists of voters, which make a lot more sense.
• It is further felt that the parliament might want to look at cutting the pre-poll voting period from three weeks to two, but should keep its hands off the parties’ practice of mailing out postal vote applications. Parliament should also do something about “boorish behaviour around polling booths”, like “limiting the presence of volunteers to those linked with a particular candidate”.
• Hints are offered that Liberals’ pollsters served up dud results from “inner city metropolitan seats”. This probably means Reid in Sydney and Chisholm in Melbourne, both of which went better than they expected, and perhaps reflects difficulties polling the Chinese community. It is further suggested that the party’s polling program should expand from 20 seats to 25.
• Ten to twelve months is about the right length of time out from the election to preselect marginal seat candidates, and safe Labor seats can wait until six months out. This is at odds with the Victorian party’s recent decision to get promptly down to business, even ahead of a looming redistribution, which has been a source of friction between the state and federal party.
• After six of the party’s candidates fell by the wayside during the campaign, largely on account of social media indiscretions (one of which may have cost the Liberals the Tasmanian seat of Lyons), it is suggested that more careful vetting processes might be in order.
The Victorian inquiry was conducted by former state and federal party director Tony Nutt, and is available in apparently unexpurgated form. Notably:
• The party’s tough-on-crime campaign theme, turbo-charged by media reportage of an African gangs crisis, failed to land. Too many saw it as “a political tactic rather than an authentic problem to be solved by initiatives that would help make their neighbourhoods safer”. As if to show that you can’t always believe Peter Dutton, post-election research found the issue influenced the vote of only 6% of respondents, “and then not necessarily to our advantage”.
• As it became evident during the campaign that they were in trouble, the party’s research found the main problem was “a complete lack of knowledge about Matthew Guy, his team and their plans for Victoria if elected”. To the extent that Guy was recognised at all, it was usually on account of “lobster with a mobster”.
• Guy’s poor name recognition made it all the worse that attention was focused on personalities in federal politics, two months after the demise of Malcolm Turnbull. Post-election research found “30% of voters in Victorian electorates that were lost to Labor on the 24th November stated that they could not vote for the Liberal Party because of the removal of Malcolm Turnbull”.
• Amid a flurry of jabs at the Andrews government, for indiscretions said to make the Liberal defeat all the more intolerable, it is occasionally acknowledged tacitly that the government had not made itself an easy target. Voters were said to have been less concerned about “the Red Shirts affair for instance” than “more relevant, personal and compelling factors like delivery of local infrastructure”.
• The report features an exhausting list of recommendations, updated from David Kemp’s similar report in 2015, the first of which is that the party needs to get to work early on a “proper market research-based core strategy”. This reflects the Emerson and Weatherill report, which identified the main problem with the Labor campaign as a “weak strategy”.
• A set of recommendations headed “booth management” complains electoral commissions don’t act when Labor and union campaigners bully their volunteers.
• Without naming names, the report weights in against factional operators and journalists who “see themselves more as players and influencers than as traditional reporters”.
• The report is cagey about i360, described in The Age as “a controversial American voter data machine the party used in recent state elections in Victoria and South Australia”. It was reported to have been abandoned in April “amid a botched rollout and fears sensitive voter information was at risk”, but the report says only that it is in suspension, and recommends a “thorough review”.
• Other recommendations are that the party should write more lists, hold more meetings and find better candidates, and that its shadow ministers should pull their fingers out.
The Angus Horribulus was just a one-liner in a rather good speech to Caucus – I think the voting down of the ensuring integrity bill has put a spring in Albo’s step. He is talking up a good game.
Yep – Albo had a speech…
“We will go into 2020 with confidence. Confidence that we can hold this government to account. Confidence that we can defeat legislation. Confidence that we can present an alternative vision for this nation and an alternative vision that’s based on fairness, that’s based on creating wealth but also is concerned about its distribution. Confidence that we can deal with climate change with a plan which creates jobs, lowers emissions and lowers emergency prices.Confidence that we can stand up for Australia’s view in international forums.”
Liberal party analysis of the 2019 federal election:
As always, we have won exclusively thanks to Queensland. So the question is how to keep Queenslanders voting for us and not the ALP.
Recommendations:
a) Keep supporting Murdoch and his virtually full control of the printed media in Qld. Keep helping private TV channels and radio stations supportive of the LNP by telling our mates in the 1%, big companies and multinationals to remain their financial sponsors.
b) Maintain both PHON and Palmer as close mates as possible in order to enjoy their flow of second preferences.
c) Keep the ALP state government in our crosshairs, so that they may likely lose the next state election. In that case we will be in FULL control of Queensland. Our mining mates and financial sponsors would be totally delighted!
d) Our lies work in Qld at the federal level, keep up with them.
The 4 early primary States aggregated..
Iowa, NH, NV and SC @MorningConsult Poll:
Biden 25%
Sanders 20%
Buttigieg 13%
Warren 12%
Steyer 9%
Gabbard 4%
Harris 4%
Yang 3%
Bloomberg 2%
Klobuchar 2%
Booker 2%
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
Mavis
The wives of:
(1) Other ranks sweat
(2) NonComs perspire
(3) Officers, bloom.
I believe there was some enlightened commentary by Bludgers who know about that sort of stuff shortly after the first P. Andrew interview.
FWIW, I thought that the Prince was trying to remind everyone that he is a war hero because he was shot at during a time of war. Given the horrendous incarceration rates of British Iraq vets, the Prince should perhaps have left that one well alone. Perhaps Andrew’s reputation would have done better had he emulated Prince Eugene or even Prince Victor:
https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/prince-eugene-napoleon-killed-during-anglo-zulu-war
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Christian_Victor_of_Schleswig-Holstein#Death
Zinger is a word that should be taken out the back
“ That’s your bottom line profit before people.”
Rinse and repeat Guytaur. My bottom line, labor’s bottom line is ‘people before Green Gizmos’.
In my case ‘people’ also includes the verboten scum that you think should simply sit in the naughty corner because they don’t accept ‘the science’.
Unfortunately for you, the verboten scum have as much right to the vote as you and your woke camp followers. You repulse them and they are now conditioned to vote against not only your heroes in the Greens, but because of past associations, Labor. To top it off, their votes are collectively more important than yours. In fact they are decisive in determining who forms government. Their vote is the sole reason we have endless LNP governments. It’s time to stop rubbing their nose in Greens Gizmos. Something Labor understands, but you can’t begin to comprehend.
For anyone who missed Mr Bowe’s summation of Winning 101
Other recommendations are that the party should write more lists, hold more meetings and find better candidates, and that its shadow ministers should pull their fingers out. (v.s.)
Andrew_Earlwood
says:
To top it off, their votes are collectively more important than yours. In fact they are decisive in determining who forms government. Their vote is the sole reason we have endless LNP governments. It’s time to stop rubbing their nose in Greens Gizmos. Something Labor understands, but you can’t begin to comprehend.
____________________
The verboten scum aren’t going to vote for the ALP. Get that through your head. They wont believe what you say and will stick with the LNP.
‘ItzaDream says:
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 at 10:39 am
I think what some would call left extreme views – like completely banning this or that – are a worthwhile balance for the polar opposites…’
Uh huh. Labour has been virtually wiped out in rural and regional seats in the large states. Two of the four remaining seats: Gilmore and Eden Monaro are extremely marginal.
This in part because of a deliberate political campaign by Labour’s opponents to associate Labour with the Greens in the minds of rural and regional voters. This campaign was assisted in the last election campaign by Di Natale who boasted repeatedly about how he was going to force Labor to bend to Greens’s policies. Instead, the duffer Killed Bill and got Morrison. Dumb as. But, back to your point…
My view is that he cumulative list of Greens plans to ban stuff in the bush is not just a philosophical issue. Nor is it simply a matter of competing policies. It is a matter of political suicide for team Labor/Greens. Just in case you have forgotten just what the Greens plan to do.
Close down:
Beef feedlots
Piggeries
Poultry sheds
Biofuel operations
Native forestry industry
Rodeos
Camp drafts
Dog racing
Trots racing
Jumps racing
Live exports of beef
Live exports of sheep
Live exports of goats
Circus animals
Duck hunting
Kennel breeding of dogs
Rabbit hunting
Kangaroo hunting
Buffalo hunting
Deer hunting
Pig hunting
Muttonbird harvesting
Theme park animals
Live exports of greyhounds
All uranium mines
Lucas Heights reactor/radiation medical production
All uranium exports
All coal mines
All conventional gas production facilities
All coal seam gas production facilities
Deep sea bottom trawling
All oil production facilities
Beef farming
Sheep farming
Cotton industry
Warship manufacturing
Fighter component manufacturing
Infantry fighting vehicle manufacturing
The Singapore Air training facility in Queensland
The three joint spy bases
Around a dozen major fleet, air and army bases
All facilities that enable the deployment of nuclear weapons – whatever that means. The Greens argue that this does not mean major airports and major ports but both seem to me to be facilities that are key to deploying large weapons, including nuclear weapons.
These are all definites and flow directly from stated policies on the Australian Greens policy site.
There is reason to believe that the following would be added to the bans list:
Recreational angling
Thoroughbred racing
On current indications, we might as well add the irrigated almond industry because the Greens have a gut hate for this sort of industry. Wine grape industry? Not so much. Might interrupt the flow of Chardonney?
sprocket
Thank you for providing the link to RDN’s interview this morning on ABC RN Breakfast. Just listened to it. He gave a strong performance, speaking calmly and rationally about the current global heating emergency.
mundo
Only people inside the Canberra bubble would applaud this as a zinger, not so much those “verboten scum”, aka the only voters who really, really matter.
Elites sprouting latin; they speak just like us. What a vote-winner.
nath
Or ON whose preferences will then flow on to LNP.
Until Labor comes out and speaks to them unambiguously and authentically on a number of issues, it will be unsuccessful in its attempts to bring these voters back into the Labor fold.
“ The verboten scum aren’t going to vote for the ALP. Get that through your head. They wont believe what you say and will stick with the LNP.”
Okey dokey. So, unless Ive missed something there is no realistic pathway for the Labor + Greens plurality to win government if what you say is correct.
Which leads me to my next ‘rinse and repeat’: nath – If you think me wrong then what is your pathway for Labor + Greens to get to 77 seats and government without the outer rim and regional seats? Ideally, Labor + Greens need 80+ seats in its first term of government so that it can spend some political capital and get things done while holding on for at least 3 terms to make said things stick …
Other than booting out Queensland from the Commonwealth, do you have an actual feasible plan for Labor (+Greens) to win without the ‘verboten scum’ vote? Guytaur, Pegasus and the rest of the Greens cadre should feel free to explain to us Labor hacks the pathway to 77 + seats as well.
Batter up.
ItzaDream @ #101 Tuesday, December 3rd, 2019 – 10:39 am
I have been enjoying watching a bird expertly fly in under our verandah awning and pick off the spiders out of their web and fly off again, all in the space of about 3 seconds. We have a lot of spiders up there, despite regular-ish web cleaning out for cosmetic purposes. 🙂
We also have plenty of spiders that get around and about the place but we let them be as they just seem to prey on small insects and smaller spiders. Sometimes, however, after a flooding rain, the Funnel Web spiders get washed out of their hidey holes and end up in the garage. We carefully avoid them and go and get an empty glass jar to gingerly put them up, close the lid tight then migrate them back to their nesting area.
I don’t do more than throw bush cockroaches back out into the bush when I notice the odd one inside. We don’t have mice or rats but we do have Antechinus and Chidditches, who love nothing more than trying to get inside and fatten themselves up for breeding in the Spring. Our Carpet Python, who lives in the roof space, keeps the numbers down for us. Sadly, however, one of the Chidditches died last Winter after falling into our jar of honey which someone had left the lid off overnight. 🙁
Boerwar @ #82 Tuesday, December 3rd, 2019 – 10:10 am
Well – he is being pied on PB (and everywhere else) at present, though personally I think that the acronym of Bloody Incompetent Political Exploding Device has the advantage of brevity and undisputable truth (unlike Jammy Angus).
‘zinger’ is neither Latin nor even vaguely latinate.
Even Greens elites should know that.
“ Until Labor comes out and speaks to them unambiguously and authentically on a number of issues, it will be unsuccessful in its attempts to bring these voters back into the Labor fold.”
Question: is this ‘unambiguous and authentic’ talk code for Labor adopting Greens issues and Greens policies on … climate change … etc. It would seem to me that would truly rubbing their noses in little Green pony poo.
OR: is it ok for Labor to speak ‘unambiguously and authentically’ about the things the the verboten scum think are important to their little lives and views?
Events 10 years ago highlight the Greens’ lack of agility.
There was a brief chance, however flawed you may think it, to advance action on climate change.
They failed to recognise and act on it.
I remember people advocated boycotting the SSM plebiscite, saying, just wait for the next election.
Yeah, that would have worked out well!
Please, what’s a chidditch?
Andrew Elwood. I have outlined a path to victory that is via the suburbs not the regions.
It might yield the ALP a maximum 5 seat win – rather than a landslide, but it could be very sustainable to hold for long periods of time and it would be polarising in the ALPs favour. Think what South Australia was – a majority of votes in a majority of seats. All suburban. Kept the ALP in gov for a very long time…
I’m just a little taken aback.
A card and board game played in pubs in the olden days?
Steyer at 9%!
Boerwar:
[‘I thought that the Prince was trying to remind everyone that he is a war hero because he was shot at during a time of war.’]
Without doubt. Following that interview, pics of Andrew were re-published of his disembarking, greeting his mother, red rose protruding from his mouth. It was typical of “The Firm’s” method of damage control. But on this occasion, it hasn’t worked, with opinion polls 20/80 against him. If he were to travel to the US, defence counsel would subpoena him and have a field day taking apart his amazingly dumb, deceitful interview, absent any concern of those who were abused.
Oi ! Albo get your own lines. Or at least send me royalties 🙂
AZ – I may have missed that post. Sorry, but could you give me a thumbnail sketch.
For what it is worth I have also outlined a possible pathway to at least make about 20 seats currently held by the LNP contestable for Labor via a comprehensive middle class tax cuts, infrastructure, employment and skills plan (a new Working Nation program and radically overhauling ‘work for the dole’ to become a segue to a National Jobs Gurantee) . These seats include middle ring suburban seats like Reid, Banks and Chisholm, seats like Swan and Bonner but also outer rim seats like Lindsay, La Trobe, Forde, Longman, Petrie etc and also regional centres. If I get time later I’ll also post a thumbnail sketch as well.
C@tmomma @ #1114 Tuesday, December 3rd, 2019 – 7:16 am
Leader-in-waiting Joel Fitzgibbon intends to align Labor with the Govts agenda re climate change and energy.
I, for one, have never seen Albo and poroti in the same room at the same time.
I do hope Albo has his citizenship sorted.
Vale Greedy.. 🙁
https://youtu.be/VVnLJQIJw2Y
https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/celebrity/2019/12/03/mental-as-anythings-greedy-smith-dies/
lizzie says:
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 at 11:19 am
I’m just a little taken aback.
‘We need to work across party lines to get policy that is up to meeting the climate crisis’: Richard di Natale
Step one, the green face up to themdamage they have done and apologize to the nation and Labor. Had their opportunity yesterday, they fluffed it.
Pegasus
Us hoi polloi became very aware of the ‘elite’ latin term ‘annus horribilis’ because it was ‘everywhere’ after Betty Windsor used it to describe a rotten year back in the 90s.
Trump feared the truth about Russian election interference was his ‘Achilles heel’: Hope Hicks
Testimony to the FBI from former White House Director of Communications Hope Hicks was revealed as part of the latest set of secret memos to be released from special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation.
Hicks told FBI agents that Trump feared the unanimous assessment of the US intelligence committee that Russia intervened in the election to help his campaign was his kryptonite.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/trump-feared-the-truth-about-russian-election-interference-was-his-achilles-heel-hope-hicks/
Andrew_Earlwood
says:
Other than booting out Queensland from the Commonwealth, do you have an actual feasible plan for Labor (+Greens) to win without the ‘verboten scum’ vote? Guytaur, Pegasus and the rest of the Greens cadre should feel free to explain to us Labor hacks the pathway to 77 + seats as well.
Batter up.
__________________________________
Labor has already removed the chief impediment to regaining government: Bill Shorten. I expect Albo to win the next election even with a small target strategy. The biggest threat to this happening is Shorten and a weak front bench. Although that shouldn’t matter so much. The fact is Labor is well poised to take government. All it needed was a leader people could trust.
Senate GOP-led committee cleared Ukraine of US election meddling – and yet Republicans now spreading same Putin propaganda
The Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee in 2017 investigated allegations that Ukraine interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and cleared that country of any actions that would be in any way similar to the attacks by Russia to put Donald Trump in the White House.
The Intelligence Committee “thoroughly investigated” the claim that Ukraine attacked the U.S. election, Politico reports, “and found no evidence that Ukraine waged a top-down interference campaign akin to the Kremlin’s efforts to help Trump win in 2016.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/senate-gop-led-committee-cleared-ukraine-of-us-election-meddling-and-yet-republicans-now-spreading-same-putin-propaganda/
This is a useful discussion on whether this year’s fires are ‘unprecedented’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/22/australia-bushfires-factcheck-are-this-years-fires-unprecedented
It’s water-spouts that gush and bean-sprouts that grow little leaves.
Love it. I remember Dad collecting funnel webs in bottles to take down to the CSIRO labs at Crows Nest where they were milked for venom as they were developing the antivenene.
It’s interesting to watch it all at work. The goanna comes past in spring looking for eggs in the swallows nests around the garage timbers. The lyrebirds are usually well back down in the gullies by now, but this year still are still wreaking havoc around the house where there’s moisture and mulch and so soil activity. The wombats are still in winter mode – because there’s little to no grass to graze on, they are into the roots leaving complete bare patches.
I wouldn’t mind a python. The mice come in on Anzac Day.
Betting the Bank on Albo’s relatability.
I know Albo. I like Albo. Also is my friend.
But.
Also is no Hawkie or Whitlam type charisma machine.
Your plan is a bold one.
Maybe. Just maybe.
With the right suite of small target policies that the right people in voter land can connect with … maybe.
Revelation that Trump and Melania ‘sleep on separate floors’ sparks range of reactions
An unauthorized biography of Melania Trump offers insight into the very private First Lady, including that she and her husband not only sleep in separate bedrooms but on separate floors.
CNN reports “Free, Melania: The Unauthorized Biography,” reveals that this First Lady is “way more powerful and influential with her husband than you might think,” and her “relationship with Ivanka Trump isn’t as chummy as it was pre-White House.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/quid-pro-quo-marriage-revelation-that-trump-and-melania-sleep-on-separate-floors-sparks-range-of-reactions/
‘Free, Melania’ offers new details about the life of a private first lady
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/02/politics/melania-trump-white-house-biography-free-melania/index.html
There are 34 regional seats in the large states.
Handing these seats as a standing head start to the Coalition in any single election campaign is not, IMO, very sensible at all.
Of course if the meaning of your political life are your culture war values, along with an acceptance that you are only every going to win a couple of seats in the Inner Urbs along with the occasional threat of a Senate BOP, then it is very easy to ignore those 34 seats. It is in fact, easy to go one step further and plan a comprehensive assault on their economies and their cultures.
Unfortunately, it is not all that easy to ignore the practical consequences which we are suffering now.
Winners are grinners. Losers can suit themselves. The latter is a Plan but just not a very good Plan.
Andrew_Earlwood
says:
Maybe. Just maybe.
With the right suite of small target policies that the right people in voter land can connect with … maybe.
___________________
Labor only really need to win Longman in QLD. A good majority can be achieved elsewhere. There is no need to placate climate change deniers. Ignore them.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 at 11:13 am
‘zinger’ is neither Latin nor even vaguely latinate.
zingo….I zing….first recorded by some Cicero…
Andrew Earlwood.
I think you have most of the target seats listed there.
Mine would be something along the lines of: Bass, Chisholm, Boothby, Swan, Braddon, Reid, La Trobe, Casey, Deakin, Brisbane, Lindsay, Banks, Sturt & Higgins.
RI
LOLO
LOLA
LOLAT
LOLAMUS
LOLATUS
LOLANT.
?
I have some hope that Albo may win a few seats in Western Sydney.
Also, for whatever reason, the Nine newspapers have stopped giving the Federal Coalition the free run they have had from May until now – probably just for reasons of selling newspapers.
Calling tranches of voters “verboten scum” is probably not the way to win them over.
C@tmomma @ #114 Tuesday, December 3rd, 2019 – 11:11 am
I don’t do more than throw bush cockroaches back out into the bush when I notice the odd one inside. We don’t have mice or rats but we do have Antechinus and Chidditches, who love nothing more than trying to get inside and fatten themselves up for breeding in the Spring. Our Carpet Python, who lives in the roof space, keeps the numbers down for us. Sadly, however, one of the Chidditches died last Winter after falling into our jar of honey which someone had left the lid off overnight. 🙁
What’s a ‘chidditch’, pray tell? I have actually seen a chuditch (western quoll) while camping near Harvey (WA), but I have never come across a chidditch. Western quolls are about cat size, but thicker through. They certainly wouldn’t drown in a jar of honey, and are very, very rare on the central coast.
It would be truly surprising if you don’t have bush rats around your place, but perhaps the cats have got them all.
Alpha Zero
says:
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 at 11:52 am
Andrew Earlwood.
I think you have most of the target seats listed there.
Mine would be something along the lines of: Bass, Chisholm, Boothby, Swan, Braddon, Reid, La Trobe, Casey, Deakin, Brisbane, Lindsay, Banks, Sturt & Higgins.
____________________
I doubt La Trobe and Casey will go to Labor. Although we will know more if/when Vic goes into redistribution. Higgins may be a better bet for either Labor or Greens. The demographics there seem to be changing very fast. Elderly liberal voters there are being replaced at a rapid rate.
roflolo
Andrew_Earlwood:
[‘…and a weak front bench.’]
Probably right. Look no further than the Tory backbench at the last election, though I don’t think Shorten’s an impediment to an Albanese led victory. Funny how only a few weeks ago some were still in a state of doom & gloom. I’ve always thought that the electorate would soon tire of Morrison. And to that end, green shoots are starting to appear.
Steve777 @ #145 Tuesday, December 3rd, 2019 – 11:54 am
It does, however, tell you something about the people who use such terms 🙁