In the wake of Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill’s federal electoral post-mortem for Labor, two post-election reviews have emerged from the Liberal Party, with very different tales to tell – one from the May 2019 federal triumph, the other from the November 2018 Victorian state disaster.
The first of these was conducted by Arthur Sinodinos and Steven Joyce, the latter being a former cabinet minister and campaign director for the conservative National Party in New Zealand. It seems we only get to see the executive summary and recommendations, the general tenor of which is that, while all concerned are to be congratulated on a job well done, the party benefited from a “poor Labor Party campaign” and shouldn’t get too cocky. Points of interest:
• It would seem the notion of introducing optional preferential voting has caught the fancy of some in the party. The report recommends the party “undertake analytical work to determine the opportunities and risks” – presumably with respect to itself – “before making any decision to request such a change”.
• Perhaps relatedly, the report says the party should work closer with the Nationals to avoid three-cornered contests. These may have handicapped the party in Gilmore, the one seat it lost to Labor in New South Wales outside Victoria.
• The report comes out for voter identification at the polling booth, a dubious notion that nonetheless did no real harm when it briefly operated in Queensland in 2015, and electronic certified lists of voters, which make a lot more sense.
• It is further felt that the parliament might want to look at cutting the pre-poll voting period from three weeks to two, but should keep its hands off the parties’ practice of mailing out postal vote applications. Parliament should also do something about “boorish behaviour around polling booths”, like “limiting the presence of volunteers to those linked with a particular candidate”.
• Hints are offered that Liberals’ pollsters served up dud results from “inner city metropolitan seats”. This probably means Reid in Sydney and Chisholm in Melbourne, both of which went better than they expected, and perhaps reflects difficulties polling the Chinese community. It is further suggested that the party’s polling program should expand from 20 seats to 25.
• Ten to twelve months is about the right length of time out from the election to preselect marginal seat candidates, and safe Labor seats can wait until six months out. This is at odds with the Victorian party’s recent decision to get promptly down to business, even ahead of a looming redistribution, which has been a source of friction between the state and federal party.
• After six of the party’s candidates fell by the wayside during the campaign, largely on account of social media indiscretions (one of which may have cost the Liberals the Tasmanian seat of Lyons), it is suggested that more careful vetting processes might be in order.
The Victorian inquiry was conducted by former state and federal party director Tony Nutt, and is available in apparently unexpurgated form. Notably:
• The party’s tough-on-crime campaign theme, turbo-charged by media reportage of an African gangs crisis, failed to land. Too many saw it as “a political tactic rather than an authentic problem to be solved by initiatives that would help make their neighbourhoods safer”. As if to show that you can’t always believe Peter Dutton, post-election research found the issue influenced the vote of only 6% of respondents, “and then not necessarily to our advantage”.
• As it became evident during the campaign that they were in trouble, the party’s research found the main problem was “a complete lack of knowledge about Matthew Guy, his team and their plans for Victoria if elected”. To the extent that Guy was recognised at all, it was usually on account of “lobster with a mobster”.
• Guy’s poor name recognition made it all the worse that attention was focused on personalities in federal politics, two months after the demise of Malcolm Turnbull. Post-election research found “30% of voters in Victorian electorates that were lost to Labor on the 24th November stated that they could not vote for the Liberal Party because of the removal of Malcolm Turnbull”.
• Amid a flurry of jabs at the Andrews government, for indiscretions said to make the Liberal defeat all the more intolerable, it is occasionally acknowledged tacitly that the government had not made itself an easy target. Voters were said to have been less concerned about “the Red Shirts affair for instance” than “more relevant, personal and compelling factors like delivery of local infrastructure”.
• The report features an exhausting list of recommendations, updated from David Kemp’s similar report in 2015, the first of which is that the party needs to get to work early on a “proper market research-based core strategy”. This reflects the Emerson and Weatherill report, which identified the main problem with the Labor campaign as a “weak strategy”.
• A set of recommendations headed “booth management” complains electoral commissions don’t act when Labor and union campaigners bully their volunteers.
• Without naming names, the report weights in against factional operators and journalists who “see themselves more as players and influencers than as traditional reporters”.
• The report is cagey about i360, described in The Age as “a controversial American voter data machine the party used in recent state elections in Victoria and South Australia”. It was reported to have been abandoned in April “amid a botched rollout and fears sensitive voter information was at risk”, but the report says only that it is in suspension, and recommends a “thorough review”.
• Other recommendations are that the party should write more lists, hold more meetings and find better candidates, and that its shadow ministers should pull their fingers out.
Cud chewer,
We know who the plane arrivals are a high number of them are gaming the system rather than being legitimate asylum seekers.
No plane arrivals have drowned in the Timor Sea and had their rotting bodies pulled out of it by our ADF and Border Force personnel.
I dont know where guytaur got his information but Angus Taylor claims he has established point of contact with NSW police investigation
Isn’t it funny here on PB sometimes that if you criticise a party’s policy then you are automatically a Greenie of a Lib scumbag? i have made it abundantly clear on many occasions that i voted Labor at the last election, but get labelled a greenie constantly?
I believe people who think that everyone of their parties policies is perfect is just not being objective enough. There are plenty on the Green side i don’t agree with, plenty on ALP and well pretty much endless with the Libs.
The ALP had some excellent policies at the last election but did not sell the message (again weak leadership). Now they have lost, they have abandoned the policies???
One thing i can say about the Libs as much as i hate to, they believed in a GST (which i don’t) and continued with it even though it lost them an election, eventually getting it through.
Yes i support the Green’s policy on AS and AGW and believe it is better than the ALP’s. But does that mean i voted Green? no. I constantly stated if the ALP really want the votes back from the Greens, then toughen up and take action on AGW and show some humanity, its not that hard! If you sell the message people will come along even if it means some pain!
Bucephalus says:
Wednesday, December 4, 2019 at 3:51 pm
Cud chewer,
We know who the plane arrivals are a high number of them are gaming the system rather than being legitimate asylum seekers.
No plane arrivals have drowned in the Timor Sea and had their rotting bodies pulled out of it by our ADF and Border Force personnel.
So why don’t the Liberals just put the remaining Manus Island etc. refugees on planes and let them arrive thus; cost go down, centers closed, problem solved.
‘Mavis says:
Wednesday, December 4, 2019 at 3:36 pm
Dolly wants us to join NATO:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/let-australia-join-nato-summit-begins-with-plea-for-change-20191204-p53glp.html
Probably a good idea.’
Not with Trump as POTUS.
Jeff.
The problem with AGW is the policy has to sold. It can’t be sold until the rubbish that only the Greens can deal with it if they are the tail wagging the Labor dog is put to bed.
‘Nicholas says:
Wednesday, December 4, 2019 at 3:40 pm
The problem is the structure of First Past The Post, not the minor parties who contest elections in that system.’
The reactionaries just love the idiots who help the to power.
Jeff
It is one of the hazards of social media, some partisans are not very good at accepting that it is possible to both support a party and disagree with it but the funny thing is after they claim to know how you vote yet if you challenge that accuser to prove it, the answer is usually crickets.
FredNK
Only if Labor accepts the LNP narrative that dealing with AGW means you are against jobs.
If it’s not Adani it will be the next coal mine or coal plant ad infinitum.
Instead Labor can accept a transition away from coal is indeed required.
Until then Labor will be the extreme rational party accepting the science like the Greens according to the LNP narrative.
Labor should know by now. Appeasing the LNP never works.
frednk
Both the ALP and LNP have clearly stated policy that those people will not end up in Australia.
It is a clear part of the overall policy aimed at dissuading attempts at boat arrivals. If they were to do what you want then the smugglers would immediately start again saying “spend 5 years in a tropical paradise and then you’ll make it to Australia.”
That article by Workman reads like a drip and comment in response were provided by the Taylor office at the same time.
Whatever the intention the revelation opens the door to so many more questions.
Who downloaded and doctored the document is the simple basic question that needs to be answered first.
What then needs to be answered is what was the relationship between the office of the Minister and the news outlet that published the story based on the crook figures ?
Who led who or was it a case of mutual leading ?
From the Graudian live blog
guytaur
Labor has done more to deal with Global warming that has ever been done by the greens. The Greens are destroyers, nothing more and nothing less. Until that is dealt with we are stuck.
Frednk,
I see what you are getting at, but i would not be the first time greens policy has eventually become mainstream…. SSM anyone?
Labor has the big party coverage to “own” any policy decision it wants to adopt.
Again to harp on it, leadership skills.
FredNK
No matter how much you lie about the Greens it does not make it true.
Edit: That includes lying to yourself
Bucephalus says:
Wednesday, December 4, 2019 at 4:07 pm
frednk
Both the ALP and LNP have clearly stated policy that those people will not end up in Australia.
It is a clear part of the overall policy aimed at dissuading attempts at boat arrivals. If they were to do what you want then the smugglers would immediately start again saying “spend 5 years in a tropical paradise and then you’ll make it to Australia.”
A lot of seeking asylum are arriving by plane, it is well know this is happening, you seem to be ok with that, why not a few more? Get Manus over and done with.
It would say we are completely confident with boat turn-back we don’t need this shit any more.
Why do the liberals have no confidence in their boat turn-back policy, it seemed to work.
“guytaur
Labor has done more to deal with Global warming that has ever been done by the greens. The Greens are destroyers, nothing more and nothing less. Until that is dealt with we are stuck.”
and what is that exactly Frednk? and how have the greens policies destroyed anything, details please?
Lambie isn’t a secret anything, she is an undisguised bogan and as dumb as a stump.
I am just a little gobsmacked. I have received a cheque from AMP in reimbursement for fees wrongly charged to Ken (OH) “after his passing” (which was five years ago). Nearly $1000. They must have done a lot of abacus work, methinks.
AG Bill Barr blasted for speech suggesting police in Trump’s America are like ‘a gang running a protection racket’
Attorney General Bill Barr gave a controversial speech on Tuesday, the same day he was repeatedly mentioned in the impeachment report.
Barr appeared to threaten that police can stop replying to calls in communities who do not show enough deference to law enforcement, according to a new report in the HuffPost.
“But I think today, American people have to focus on something else, which is the sacrifice and the service that is given by our law enforcement officers,” Barr said. “And they have to start showing, more than they do, the respect and support that law enforcement deserves ― and if communities don’t give that support and respect, they might find themselves without the police protection they need.”
Adam Serwer, a staff writer for The Atlantic, blasted the comments.
“Ah, so the attorney general of the United States believes police are not sworn officers of the law, civil servants bound by an oath, but a gang running a protection racket,” Serwer posted on Twitter.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/ag-bill-barr-blasted-for-speech-suggesting-police-in-trumps-america-are-like-a-gang-running-a-protection-racket/
‘autocrat says:
Wednesday, December 4, 2019 at 4:18 pm
Lambie isn’t a secret anything, she is an undisguised bogan and as dumb as a stump.’
The Tasmanian Greens have two senators. Lambie has one senator.
Cud Chewer @ #4610 Wednesday, December 4th, 2019 – 3:40 pm
Brucellosis (specifically B. suis) is quite apposite for the Ox-headed Crank.
mikehilliard @ #736 Wednesday, December 4th, 2019 – 3:31 pm
To be a quiet Australian ‘just look to the Labor party for guidance’.
Ouch.
How can anyone come to this forum or anywhere else and say boat turn backs are working, deaths at sea have stopped? There is no evidence, no reporting or have you all forgotten that?Why is it that there have been no attempts, apart from when a federal election comes along?
Why is it that the Liberals are all lying Bast##ds on everything, but are believed in the issue of the boats being stopped? what proof is there?
There could have been hundreds of lives lost at sea and we will never know now? For all we know the Australian navy could have sunk a couple, outrageous concept, but how could anyone prove otherwise? But hey all is dandy when you can close your eyes and pretend it is not happening.
So, Bucephalus is of the view that his mob’s repugnant, inhumane approach to refugees is predicated on preventing drownings at sea.
Boerwar:
If all goes to plan, Trump will be spending more time with family this time next year.
jeff
The question never seems to come up, does it.
Oh and for the record the holocaust would have never happened if the media was banned from reporting on it and anyone who witnessed it thrown in jail if they said anything?
sound familiar?
Mavis says: Wednesday, December 4, 2019 at 4:24 pm
If all goes to plan, Trump will be spending more time with family this time next year.
*********************************************************************
If Trump is not President at this time next year – I dare say the Trump clan will be minus Melania at Xmas dinner ( if all the rumours of signed papers are true )
Lizzie
Endorse the cheque to PB
Jeff
In my view we are in exciting times. The way forward is to embrace re-newables.
1) Fix up the grid so it is renewable based. Deal with the issues, jobs.
2) Electric cars. Jobs.
3) Become the energy supplier for Asia. Ammonia, Hydrogen, Grid connection to East Timor, Indonesia, and Singapore. Jobs, Jobs. Jobs
4)Steel production based on Hydrogen. Job Jobs Jobs
It has to be built it has to be ran. An economic boom.
This should be the focus, the plan.
Instead we have the Liberals selling there is no need, and if you vote Labor they will screw you because the Greens will force them to close down your coal mine.
Who cares about the bloody coal mines, you fix the demand side they will close. The exciting bit is on the demand side. The supply side is shit, and it is important it fails for the right reason. Lack of demand because of all this exciting stuff on the demand side..
The Greens scaring the trousers of people that have families to raise, close close close, is helping the Liberals.
jeff appears to forget that the illegal entrants had the ABC, AMSA and refugee advocates on speed dial on their satellite phones. Boat departures weren’t secret and information on them publicly accessible to those who wanted the information. Any failed voyage would almost immediately end up in the media.
shellbell
Thinking…thinking… 🙂
I do hope Ms. Lambie sleeps well tonight and in the future, conned by slickest double-glazing conmen in the game.
jeff says:
Wednesday, December 4, 2019 at 4:24 pm
How can anyone come to this forum or anywhere else and say boat turn backs are working, deaths at sea have stopped? There is no evidence, no reporting or have you all forgotten that?
Who knows, but if they are why Manus and the other hell hope?
Saw a post on the Guardian saying that a staffer will take one for team Angus. Anyone seen this?
Bucephalus
Ok you’re happy with planes, I get it. Why Manus, why the hell holes?
Ok boat turnbacks worked, I get it, why Manus, why the hell holes?
mikehilliard
It’s in The Australian and came out after QT, presumably to prevent any questions.
DM
The frogs. The ones in the simmering pot.
Out of 135 people brought to Australia under Medevac, only 13 went to hospital at all.
5 refused treatment for what they were referred for (dermatitis, dental & abdominal pain). 43 refused medical screening/tests for the issue they were referred for.
I hope the staffer has secret recordings.
“Bucephalus
jeff appears to forget that the illegal entrants had the ABC, AMSA and refugee advocates on speed dial on their satellite phones. Boat departures weren’t secret and information on them publicly accessible to those who wanted the information. Any failed voyage would almost immediately end up in the media.”
Where did you get that drivel from? Has absolutely nothing to do with my comments…
phoenixRED:
[‘If Trump is not President at this time next year – I dare say the Trump clan will be minus Melania at Xmas dinner ( if all the rumours of signed papers are true )’]
I haven’t heard those rumours but if body language is a guide…
mikehilliard
Looks like it. Article in The Rupert pointing at this chap.
.
.
Angus Taylor staffer Josh Manuatu named as document leaker
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/angus-taylor-staffer-named-as-document-leaker/news-story/f18ba3a91a161f427501ce2973badaa4
Judging by these couple of snippets from articles he would be just the sort of fanatic who would volunteer for a suicide squad mission for The Party or have been mad enough to have actually done it in the first place.
Josh Manuatu is the Deputy Chairman of the ACT & Region Branch of the Australian Monarchist League
.
The Young Liberal Movement …….. Immediate Past President, Josh Manuatu
Bucephalus says:
Wednesday, December 4, 2019 at 4:39 pm
Out of 135 people brought to Australia under Medevac, only 13 went to hospital at all.
5 refused treatment for what they were referred for (dermatitis, dental & abdominal pain). 43 refused medical screening/tests for the issue they were referred for.
Who cares.
You’re happy with planes, I get it. Why Manus, why the hell holes?
Ok boat turnbacks worked, I get it, why Manus, why the hell holes?
lizzie + poroti
Ta.
As harsh as this sounds there should be no benefit no matter how small associated with coming by boat. People thinking about taking a boat need to consider other options and yes that should include by plane. From a process perceptive the Howard government’s approach was far better than the current government’s approach because once the media went quiet then people were relocated which is why there are people from the Tampa living here.
@autocrat
Not to add she is at least Islamophobic as well, which are quite common among women similar to her.
Frednk
There would be two reasons
1- It is not Australia so they are not getting what they are paying the smugglers for
2-It’s political because it plays to a “lets be tough on refugees” view which is popular in parts of the electorate