The heat is on

An issues poll finds concern about climate change up since the May federal election, and national security down.

One sort-of-poll, and three items of Liberal preselection news:

• The latest results of the JWS Research True Issues survey records growing concern about the environment and climate change, which is now rated among the top five most important issues by 38% of respondents, compared with 33% in June and 31% a year ago. There is diminishing concern about immigration and border security (26%, down from 30% in June and 34% last November and defence, security and terrorism (18%, down from 20% in June and 29% a year ago). A range of measures of general optimism and perceptions of government performance produced weaker results than the June survey, which appeared to record a post-election spike in positive sentiment.

• Jim Molan will shortly return to the Senate after winning a party vote last weekend to fill the New South Wales Senate vacancy caused by Arthur Sinodinos’s resignation. Molan scored 321 votes to 260 for former state party director Richard Shields, adding a second silver medal to his collection after being shaded by Dave Sharma in Wentworth last year. This was despite Molan’s attempt to retain his seat from number four on the ticket at the May election by beseeching supporters to vote for him below the line, to the displeasure of some in the party (and still more of the Nationals, who would have been the losers if Molan had succeeded). Molan was reportedly able to secure moderate faction support due to the apprehension that he will not seek another term beyond the next election.

• The Victorian Liberal Party is embroiled in a dispute over a plan for preselection proceedings for the next federal election to start as soon as January, which has been endorsed by the party’s administrative committee but is bitterly opposed by affected federal MPs. The committee is determined not to see a repeat of the previous term, when preselections were taken out of the hands of branch members to head off a number of challenges to sitting members. Those challenges might now come to fruition, most notably a threat to Howard government veteran Kevin Andrews, whose seat of Menzies is of interest to Keith Wolahan, a barrister and former army officer. Tim Wilson in Goldstein and Russell Broadbent in Monash (formerly McMillan) have also been mentioned as potential targets. According to Rob Harris of The Age, votes in Liberal-held seats could happen as soon as late February, with marginal seats to unfold from April to August and Labor-held seats to be taken care of in October.

• Matthew Denholm of The Australian ($) reports Eric Abetz and his conservative supporters believe they have seen off a threat to his position at the top of the Liberals’ Tasmanian Senate ticket, following elections for the state party’s preselection committee. Abetz’s opponents believed he should make way for rising star Jonathan Duniam to head the ticket, and for the secure second seat to go to Wendy Askew, one of the Tasmanian Liberals’ limited retinue of women MPs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,475 comments on “The heat is on”

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  2. Morrison should just pick up the phone and tell the fires to stop.

    Gravy would be a good fire retardant. They is plenty of that in Morrisons Canberra.
    Send out the gravy train!

    Or send Morrison up to talk to the fires. Immovable object meets irresistible force.

  5. laughtong

    I suspect Fraudenberg is getting a lot of comments because so many of the over-60s who he thinks should be working are unemployed and suffering age discrimination. The rage comes through their words.

  6. It’s quite annoying how much attention the MSM are paying to the antics of (Prince) Andrew and Folau.

    This at a time when Australia and the world are facing unprecedented challenges over global warming, dismal economic conditions and shocking governance in many jurisdictions.

    Perhaps it’s part of the age old RW push to distract people with circuses and trivia.

  9. Simon Katich @ #202 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 12:35 pm

    Morrison should just pick up the phone and tell the fires to stop.

    Gravy would be a good fire retardant. They is plenty of that in Morrisons Canberra.
    Send out the gravy train!

    Or send Morrison up to talk to the fires. Immovable object meets irresistible force.

    Waterbombing aircraft loads up on fresh tank of bibles to fight fires

  10. GG
    Any fool could have seen the dangerous fallacy of Robodebt averaging. The government deserves every bit of opprobrium coming its way over this long overdue and humiliating backdown.

  11. BK,

    Agree. But, this government aren’t any fool. They are and especially mendacious collection of fools that believe that persecuting and harassing people on welfare gives them moral superiority and political advantage.

  12. BK

    humiliating backdown.

    Unfortunately it will not be a humiliating backdown. It will all be done quietly and with little fanfare. The public ridicule that the stupidity of introducing and then defending such obvious crap and doing so for so long will not come the way of those who deserve it.

  13. poroti @ #212 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 12:57 pm

    BK

    humiliating backdown.

    Unfortunately it will not be a humiliating backdown. It will all be done quietly and with little fanfare. The public ridicule that the stupidity of introducing and then defending such obvious crap and doing so for so long will not come the way of those who deserve it.

    Frydenberg might be nervous. Not because of the immorality of the Government’s tactics. But, there may be an impact on the “precious” surplus.

  14. It seems strange that the Libs in Victoria would want to bring on a preselection now, as no one knows how many seats will exist at the next election

    As many people here know, the will be a check in may next year to see how many seats each state and territory will get for the next election

    Based on March 2019 figures, the results are

    NSW 47.22 quotas, down by -.1 since the last check
    Vic 38.41 quotas up by+.61 since the last check
    QLD 29.7 quotas up by +.07 since the last check
    WA 15.3 quotas down by -.2 since the last check, and enough to lose a seat
    SA 10.2 quotas down by -.21 since the last check
    Tas 3.12 quotas down by -.02 since the last check, however will still get 5 seats
    ACT 2.49 quotas down by -.05 since the last check, now in questionable territory
    NT 1.44 quotas down by -.06 since the last check, also now in questionable territory

    In the last year (31 March 2018 to 31 March 2019) an extra 388,000 have been added to the total count

    If the same number of people are added to the above figures in the above proportion, then WA will lose a seat, Victoria will gain one, and the territories will be in trouble (Note the act does not require that the NT gets 2 seats, but there is a weighting sue to large unenrollment with the NT)

    Therefore what happens if the Vic Libs preselect in Jan / Feb to find one or more seats abolished, or turned into ALP seats?

    Can we assume that the new seat will once again be a safe ALP seat somewhere in the North Western suburbs and that the flow ons will not effect any other seat, eg Higgins moving into Hotham?

  15. poroti @ #212 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 9:57 am

    BK

    humiliating backdown.

    Unfortunately it will not be a humiliating backdown. It will all be done quietly and with little fanfare. The public ridicule that the stupidity of introducing and then defending such obvious crap and doing so for so long will not come the way of those who deserve it.

    Apparently they’re writing out to all those affected so it will be known about “on the streets”, however the Murdoch/Stokes/Costello cartel will do their best to suppress it and continue on their dole bludger bashing merry way.

  17. GG

    I provided a link to an article in The Age and provided some paragraphs from it. It is not a paywalled article for me. I did this in response to AZ’s post…wtte why isn’t it highlighted that …are members of the Liberal party.

    I also posted a link to a Herald-Sun article that is paywalled for me. I did not copy and paste anything from this article.

    I also provided my own opinion re jittery folk.

    You are just engaging in your usual lies and misrepresentations about what I did.

    Your sad attempts to have a go at me are laughable.

    Try harder.

  18. GG

    Yes, they would be getting very jumpy about the ‘precious’ surplus . Their ‘precious’ seems to be what they have pinned their hopes on being able to polish this turd of a government with. Without it ?

  19. Pegasus,
    Could you let us know about the wonderful outcomes from The Greens’ national conference last weekend? I’m sure you have access to lots of material. 🙂

  20. The current IBAC inquiry into corruption, political donations and links between developers, councillors, and state government will be far reaching. The implications and ramifications for both major political parties might well be considerable.

  21. Captian Moonlight,
    I expect the pre-selections are being conducted early so that the chosen Liberals can set up their social media accounts and start spamming their electorates with positive Coalition spin and anti-Labor propaganda. Even if there is a redistribution they can just cut their cloth to suit the new, approximately similar electorate. I would hazard a guess that being a pre-selected candidate allows them access to the electoral rolls to begin such a process.

  22. Another councillor, Labor minister named as receiving donations from developer in corruption probe

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/another-councillor-labor-minister-named-as-receiving-donations-from-developer-in-corruption-probe-20191119-p53bww.html

    Former Liberal MP Gary Rowe has become the third councillor at the City of Casey to become embroiled in alleged undeclared business dealings with John Woodman, the developer at the centre of the Victorian anti-corruption commission’s probe of land deals in Melbourne’s sprawling south-east.

    The inquiry also heard that senior Labor minister Martin Pakula, an MP in Melbourne’s southeast, received a donation of $20,800, while Labor’s successful candidate for the state seat of Cranbourne, Pauline Richards received a donation of about $20,000.
    :::
    The inquiry also heard that Woodman-linked companies dramatically increased donations to Victorian Labor ahead of the 2018 state election. Donations to the party and its candidates went from $94,500 in 2015 to $157,900 in 2018. Donations to the Liberals for the 2018 election fell from $80,000 to $63,000.
    :::
    IBAC’s Operation Sandon, the most significant probe into alleged planning-related corruption in Victoria in decades.

  23. Pegasus @ #217 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 1:12 pm

    GG

    I provided a link to an article in The Age and provided some paragraphs from it. It is not a paywalled article for me. I did this in response to AZ’s post…wtte why isn’t it highlighted that …are members of the Liberal party.

    I also posted a link to a Herald-Sun article that is paywalled for me. I did not copy and paste anything from this article.

    Pegasus
    It does not matter if the article is paywalled or not. Even totally freely available it still has copyright to the author and/or publisher.
    Standard ‘fair dealing’ copyright usage (ie copy + paste) is not more than 10%.

    For small independant publishers it is much better to provide a link – click throughs all help keep the publication going.

    I am a retired academic librarian and I do not think much has changed since I retired.

  24. Pegasus @ #217 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 1:12 pm

    GG

    I provided a link to an article in The Age and provided some paragraphs from it. It is not a paywalled article for me. I did this in response to AZ’s post…wtte why isn’t it highlighted that …are members of the Liberal party.

    I also posted a link to a Herald-Sun article that is paywalled for me. I did not copy and paste anything from this article.

    I also provided my own opinion re jittery folk.

    You are just engaging in your usual lies and misrepresentations about what I did.

    Your sad attempts to have a go at me are laughable.

    Try harder.

    Your arrogant disregard of the moderators specific instructions regarding the use of copyrighted material on this blog is noted.

    Being a non-paywalled article does not entitle you to steal copious quantities of the copy and re-produce it here.

    As I said, a paragraph introducing the article and maybe a specific quote or two highlighting the specific aspect that piques your interest is fine. However, what you do on a regular basis is nothing short of intellectual theft. What you also do, is cherry pick aspects and often mislead others as to the intent of the original author. this is just dishonest.

    As an old stager, I’m sure you are acutely aware of what you are doing and you should just stop.

  25. Danama Papers

    Murdoch/Stokes/Costello cartel will do their best to suppress it and continue on their dole bludger bashing merry way.

    I’m sure we will still be told scary stories about the armies of rorting bludgers ripping off all those hard working Australian families’ tax money. We shall be told that the government were totally correct to go after these leaner bastards. It was just unfortunate that there were some teething problems, which in such a big project can only be expected and quite normal but all is good now. HURRAH for the Coalition keeping taxpayers money safe, as ever doing the right thing. Not like those Labor bastards .

    Now to sit back and tick off those boxes as the Coalition fluffers in the ‘journalist community’ fire up their keyboards 🙂

  26. laughtong

    I am well aware abut what you are saying.

    So why don’t you and GG chastise just about every prolific poster here who does the same? Rhetorical question.

    When I provided paragraphs from 2 articles from Crikey yesterday with no link, a very rare occurrence for me, it was because the articles were received by email.

    I didn’t have the time to go directly to Crikey to obtain direct web links.

  28. Pegasus @ #220 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 1:17 pm

    The current IBAC inquiry into corruption, political donations and links between developers, councillors, and state government will be far reaching. The implications and ramifications for both major political parties might well be considerable.

    You do realise that the fact no Greens Councillors are part of this probe points up how little power they have, even at a local council level? 🙂

  29. GG

    I am well aware of your need to go the personal route rather than addressing the substance or content of what I post, whether it is from an article or not.

    You need to get your angst under control.

  30. Political donations have been disclosed and are on the record.

    councillors who make planning decisions being paid off is quite another matter.

  31. nath

    So transparent aren’t they. Like I am the only one who selectively quotes and cherry picks. There are some who do and never provide links.

    Apparently it’s too hard for some to click on links and see everything in context.

  32. GG,
    Pegasus has her well-honed schtick. Cut and paste large slabs of anti-Labor articles. Wait for the expected blowback. Reply with patented sneering.

    Rinse and repeat. And repeat. And repeat. 🙄

    Even today’s offerings parsed Mr Bowe’s stated intent wrt her posting by simply adding a link and making up an exculpatory excuse about whether the article was paywalled or not. And might I just add, that articles from 9Fairfax ARE paywalled as well, after you have reached your monthly limit of free articles.

    To which I will add that I have felt the wrath of Mr Bowe wrt quoting complete or almost complete articles, and have trimmed my sails accordingly. And I will do better, now that I have been made aware of the 10% rule. 🙂

  33. Some thoughts, I have been having lately.

    Since the House of Representatives has a preferential voting system and the Labor usually gets about 80% of Greens preferences. Therefore; I am guessing some in the Federal Labor party are prepared to lose seats to the Greens, while at the same time gaining many more votes and seats in the outer suburbs and provincial cities. The downside I can see of such a strategy, is that Labor loses several seats to the Greens, while not gaining very many votes or seats in the outer suburbs and regional cities.

  34. RENEE VIELLARIS in the Courier Mail:

    TODAY, Labor insiders are letting rip against their former leader because they think Bill Shorten is up to no good – the type where he wants to invoke “a Lazarus with a triple bypass”…
    Many have held their tongue because they wanted to wait for the review. Some did not want to comment at all because they knew Shorten was grieving an election loss…
    Now they won’t stand for it. “We will start calling him out,” they have declared. None will go on the record – yet – but the message is clear….
    A number have anecdotes as evidence, especially when asked, “are you being paranoid?” or “are you sure?” These questions are met with further examples of what insiders believe is undermining, pure and simple.

  35. Apparently it’s too hard for some to click on links and see everything in context.

    So, why do you make a point of cherry-picking from articles to create the worst possible impression about the Labor Party? Why not just allow us to go to the full article after posting the first couple of paragraphs and leave it at that?

    Oh wait, I know. The Greens want to create false impressions about Labor and it’s all you’ve got. And The Greens’ attempts at positive policy usually get laughed out of the room.

    Btw, speaking about policy, can you tell us about any of the amazing policies that were discussed at The Greens’ national conference last weekend? I’m sure your the full bottle on them. 🙂

  36. I read yesterday that Crikey was having internal problems. So I think they would appreciate it if, as I used to do, anyone who received the daily email would open it up in their browser if they want to quote from it, provide a link and give Crikey the clicks. It only takes an extra 30 seconds at most.

  38. C@tmomma @ #235 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 1:40 pm

    Apparently it’s too hard for some to click on links and see everything in context.

    So, why do you make a point of cherry-picking from articles to create the worst possible impression about the Labor Party? Why not just allow us to go to the full article after posting the first couple of paragraphs and leave it at that?

    Oh wait, I know. The Greens want to create false impressions about Labor and it’s all you’ve got. And The Greens’ attempts at positive policy usually get laughed out of the room.

    Btw, speaking about policy, can you tell us about any of the amazing policies that were discussed at The Greens’ national conference last weekend? I’m sure your the full bottle on them. 🙂

    Why are Labor partisans so defensive ?

    I appreciate all articles posted here no matter which party is the subject of the article.

  39. Climate is disrupting children’s education

    https://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article/climate-is-disrupting-children-s-education

    Leading government and public figures have argued that we shouldn’t discuss climate change during this bushfire emergency. Yet when citizens, and most especially our children, previously tried to raise climate change on the public agenda, Prime Minister Scott Morrison told them that they should ‘stay in school’ rather than participate in the global School Strike for Climate. Implicit in this statement is that children should perform their part in ‘business as usual’. This presumption that our normal routines will and must continue denies evidence that these routines and obligations are already being disrupted by climate change.
    :::
    Climate change impacts are increasingly causing anxiety and other mental illnesses in young people and those around them, further undermining their ability to learn. But the answer is not to ignore climate change as if the offending information can be deleted or tossed away. As seen so horrifyingly this week, pretending climate change isn’t happening only allows its impacts to mushroom. The complexity of climate change impacts is real, and challenging. This complexity is what our children will inherit to confront and solve as adults.

    The young will become increasingly angry and take matters into their own hands, as they already are.

  41. nath @ #234 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 1:39 pm

    RENEE VIELLARIS in the Courier Mail:

    TODAY, Labor insiders are letting rip against their former leader because they think Bill Shorten is up to no good – the type where he wants to invoke “a Lazarus with a triple bypass”…
    Many have held their tongue because they wanted to wait for the review. Some did not want to comment at all because they knew Shorten was grieving an election loss…
    Now they won’t stand for it. “We will start calling him out,” they have declared. None will go on the record – yet – but the message is clear….
    A number have anecdotes as evidence, especially when asked, “are you being paranoid?” or “are you sure?” These questions are met with further examples of what insiders believe is undermining, pure and simple.

    Bill Shorten has had a good go, but it’s time he did something else other than politics.

  43. nath, I don’t care if you perpetually criticise Shorten. Go for it – you obviously derive some personal fulfilment out of it. But when you are citing Courier Mail “journalist” Viellaris as ammo, you really are scraping the bottom of the barrel.

  45. Pegasus @ #239 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 1:45 pm

    Climate is disrupting children’s education

    https://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article/climate-is-disrupting-children-s-education

    Leading government and public figures have argued that we shouldn’t discuss climate change during this bushfire emergency. Yet when citizens, and most especially our children, previously tried to raise climate change on the public agenda, Prime Minister Scott Morrison told them that they should ‘stay in school’ rather than participate in the global School Strike for Climate. Implicit in this statement is that children should perform their part in ‘business as usual’. This presumption that our normal routines will and must continue denies evidence that these routines and obligations are already being disrupted by climate change.
    :::
    Climate change impacts are increasingly causing anxiety and other mental illnesses in young people and those around them, further undermining their ability to learn. But the answer is not to ignore climate change as if the offending information can be deleted or tossed away. As seen so horrifyingly this week, pretending climate change isn’t happening only allows its impacts to mushroom. The complexity of climate change impacts is real, and challenging. This complexity is what our children will inherit to confront and solve as adults.

    The young will become increasingly angry and take matters into their own hands, as they already are.

    Genuine young leaders like Greta are engaging the public and the momentum for change is unstoppable …and doesn’t the establishment hate that fact !

  49. Pegasus @ #229 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 1:32 pm

    GG

    I am well aware of your need to go the personal route rather than addressing the substance or content of what I post, whether it is from an article or not.

    You need to get your angst under control.

    Well I’m sure WB will address this issue again later when he’s around.

    You should be prepared for some soul searching and apologising imho. But, we’ll see.

    My intention is always that there should be a diversity of views and opinions on PB. But, the way you are doing things is pretty much illegal and needs to change. I’ve offered some helpful suggestions. But, you wan’t to be a martyr. Good luck with that approach.

    Cheers.

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