The heat is on

An issues poll finds concern about climate change up since the May federal election, and national security down.

One sort-of-poll, and three items of Liberal preselection news:

• The latest results of the JWS Research True Issues survey records growing concern about the environment and climate change, which is now rated among the top five most important issues by 38% of respondents, compared with 33% in June and 31% a year ago. There is diminishing concern about immigration and border security (26%, down from 30% in June and 34% last November and defence, security and terrorism (18%, down from 20% in June and 29% a year ago). A range of measures of general optimism and perceptions of government performance produced weaker results than the June survey, which appeared to record a post-election spike in positive sentiment.

• Jim Molan will shortly return to the Senate after winning a party vote last weekend to fill the New South Wales Senate vacancy caused by Arthur Sinodinos’s resignation. Molan scored 321 votes to 260 for former state party director Richard Shields, adding a second silver medal to his collection after being shaded by Dave Sharma in Wentworth last year. This was despite Molan’s attempt to retain his seat from number four on the ticket at the May election by beseeching supporters to vote for him below the line, to the displeasure of some in the party (and still more of the Nationals, who would have been the losers if Molan had succeeded). Molan was reportedly able to secure moderate faction support due to the apprehension that he will not seek another term beyond the next election.

• The Victorian Liberal Party is embroiled in a dispute over a plan for preselection proceedings for the next federal election to start as soon as January, which has been endorsed by the party’s administrative committee but is bitterly opposed by affected federal MPs. The committee is determined not to see a repeat of the previous term, when preselections were taken out of the hands of branch members to head off a number of challenges to sitting members. Those challenges might now come to fruition, most notably a threat to Howard government veteran Kevin Andrews, whose seat of Menzies is of interest to Keith Wolahan, a barrister and former army officer. Tim Wilson in Goldstein and Russell Broadbent in Monash (formerly McMillan) have also been mentioned as potential targets. According to Rob Harris of The Age, votes in Liberal-held seats could happen as soon as late February, with marginal seats to unfold from April to August and Labor-held seats to be taken care of in October.

• Matthew Denholm of The Australian ($) reports Eric Abetz and his conservative supporters believe they have seen off a threat to his position at the top of the Liberals’ Tasmanian Senate ticket, following elections for the state party’s preselection committee. Abetz’s opponents believed he should make way for rising star Jonathan Duniam to head the ticket, and for the secure second seat to go to Wendy Askew, one of the Tasmanian Liberals’ limited retinue of women MPs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,475 comments on “The heat is on”

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  2. lizzie @ #145 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 10:29 am

    FatherBob
    @FatherBob
    ·
    11h
    Back from ABCTV where Tom Whitty and crew, incl Waleed Aly and Annabelle Crabb, staged the first episode of Australia Speaks…Julie Bishop got a seat on the panel and Rosie Batty was a roving reporter.

    I hope Julie Bishop did not require appearance money.

    Why is it always the usual suspects that are chosen for these jobs!?!

    *Waleed Aly
    *Annabelle Crabb
    *Father Bob
    *Julie Bishop

  3. Cat

    The problem with the Tabloids is they are out of control They might be on the right side this time but be in no doubt about how they operate.

    If it does get to the point of a trial and actual justice the witch hunt style tabloid coverage won’t help to get any convictions on evidence.

  4. Player Onesays:
    Tuesday, November 19, 2019 at 9:19 am

    From last thread …

    Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #1805 Monday, November 18th, 2019 – 10:53 pm

    Your demonstrated aptitude in the subject suggests that any attempt would be a waste of time.

    Nobody is going to take your nonsense on climate change seriously here until you at least try and demonstrate that you understand the difference between weather and climate.

    I thought I did last night when I picked up your ridiculous post suggesting that the abnormal weather event being experienced in parts of Australia was somehow proof of global warming.

    You seemed to concede the point before returning to your rabbit hole.

    I stand by my assessment above, with your lack of understanding you continually insult the scientists who’s work you reference by misinterpreting and misrepresenting them, and highlighting worse case scenarios.

    Great, you support action being taken, but you marry yourself to a simplistic “solution” that may look good from your rabbit hole, but lacks any consideration that Australia is not representative of the World and such simplistic solutions won’t be acceptable or applicable everywhere.

    Developed Countries are in a position to act now if the political will exists, while developing Countries will need our assistance as their energy issues are far more complicated.

    The current focus on mining fails to consider this World complexity.

    The focus should be on closing coal power stations as soon as possible, supporting the introduction of electric vehicles, improving farming techniques, reforestation and the like.

    Once achieved these are skills we can then take to the World to assist other Countries making the transition.

    Not much not to like there, except, for you, we may still be mining some coal.

    Big deal!

  5. Re-reading William’s headline article, from JWS Research, we see:

    When asked to name up to three issues that personally interest or concern them the most and that the Australian Government should focus on, around one third (34%) of Australians describe issues related to the environment and climate change.

    But in the accompanying chart we see that it seems boomers are the ones most concerned, with 48% of the over 55s rating environment and CC as the Number 1 issue.

  7. lizzie
    I see nothing wrong with those two images at all.
    I expect the younger generation to work hard to ensure that Boomers enjoy their declining years to the max.
    Not enough of it, IMO.

  9. Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #154 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 10:46 am

    I thought I did last night when I picked up your ridiculous post suggesting that the abnormal weather event being experienced in parts of Australia was somehow proof of global warming.

    So, are you now ready to try and explain to us again the difference between ‘weather’ and ‘climate’, or will you duck the issue like you have been doing ever since you got it so badly wrong the first time?

  10. Kayjay:’But it will upset some people.”

    “Some scientists believe that sending such messages alerts potential extraterrestrial civilisations of our existence, which they consider unwise and potentially catastrophic.”

    Would they be the same scientists that are telling us that global warming is a hoax?

  11. This is a link to a technical audit of European High Speed Rail lines. It may be of interest to people interested in rail policy. Cost figures are relevant to consideration of things like Geelong – Melbourne. Rule of thumb is $30 million AUS per track kilometre (tunnel x 5) plus land costs in France. We might struggle to match that, assuming we prefer inferior english technology, on the basis we are still allergic to hiring rail experts from non-english speaking countries 🙂
    https://www.eca.europa.eu/Lists/ECADocuments/SR18_19/SR_HIGH_SPEED_RAIL_EN.pdf

    Anyway while this report looks at what is wrong in Europe, you can use it to see what would be possible in Australia. All our current urban freeway projects are more expensive per km than the most expensive of these HSR projects.

  12. Player Onesays:
    Tuesday, November 19, 2019 at 10:57 am

    Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #154 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 10:46 am

    I thought I did last night when I picked up your ridiculous post suggesting that the abnormal weather event being experienced in parts of Australia was somehow proof of global warming.

    So, are you now ready to try and explain to us again the difference between ‘weather’ and ‘climate’, or will you duck the issue like you have been doing ever since you got it so badly wrong the first time?

    So my highlighting the differences last night wasn’t clear enough.

    See I told you this stuff is beyond you!

  15. Speaking of climate and weather. The SW of the Wild West had a pretty mild day yesterday and is set for a run of them. So with luck it means that ‘weather relief’ is on the way to the Eastern states currently cooking and burning.

  17. Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #162 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 11:04 am

    So my highlighting the differences last night wasn’t clear enough.

    See I told you this stuff is beyond you!

    You remind me of Alice in Through the Looking Glass – It’s “jam to-morrow and jam yesterday – but never jam to-day.”

    You didn’t explain anything last night, although I gave you the opportunity and an invitation to do so, as I always do. By all means do so now.

  18. PeeBee @ #160 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 10:01 am

    Would they be the same scientists that are telling us that global warming is a hoax?

    Yes, but you have to put air-quotes around “scientists” in both cases.

    I blame The Three Body Problem, and (especially) Dark Forest. Tell some stories permised on the idea that everyone, everywhere is irredeemably selfish and the entire universe isn’t big enough for more than one species, and a few “scientists” will actually believe it.

  19. PeeBee
    Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 11:01 am
    Comment #160

    Would they be the same scientists that are telling us that global warming is a hoax?

    Who knows. I really have no idea what’s inside those heads – maybe they glow in the dark. What I do know is that we should be kind to those who may have a hand in choosing our Aged Care Facility.

    Not much about anything —–

  20. One possible trade off is for the (a) Greens to vacate the House domain and to concentrate on the Senate in elections.
    This would obviate the three cornered contest issue in the House.
    It would make clear that the Greens are in it for the BOP.
    It would reflect the real electoral strength of the Greens because of proportional representation.
    What Labor would trade back is (b) a standing offer to negotiate an coalition agreement should Labor be able to form government in the House regardless of whether the Greens have a BOP or not.

  22. Ar, Voyager satellite is the most distant man made object there is. It has taken 42 years to get 1 quarter of 1 percent the distance needed to get to this planet. So it will take 17,000 years for their ‘attack’ to reach Earth.

    These aliens could only launch their ‘attack’ after 20 years, the time taken to receive the message.

    At any rate we have been beaming signals into space for over 100 years now. Heaven only knows what they could make of episodes of ‘I love Lucy’. Perhaps enough to make them think Earth isn’t worth attacking!

    I think we are safe.

  23. New Politics
    @newpoliticsAU
    ·
    3m
    Even though the bushfires are still burning and the dangers are high, the media is showing a lack of stamina and moved onto other matters. But Morrison shouldn’t be let off the hook: he needs to start do something to reduce climate change factors now, not next month. #AUSPOL

  24. If this does not work…

    Josh Frydenberg says over-60s need to retrain to boost Economy

    Frydenberg’s Plan B is promoting his ‘breakfast of champions’ Liberal brand cereal..

  25. Pegasus @ #146 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 10:31 am

    Sam Aziz and Geoff Ablett in the City of Casey thingo. Why isn’t it splashed everywhere that these two are both Liberal Party members????

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/developer-paid-millions-into-the-accounts-of-local-councillors-corruption-probe-20191118-p53bkb.html

    “Mr Tovey said some payments were in cash and appeared to be “patently corrupt”. In a bizarre twist to the Casey story, Mr Woodman told the hearing that one councillor, former mayor and Liberal activist Sam Aziz, had given him a suitcase filled with $600,000 in cash as a loan for investment in development. In return Mr Woodman made monthly cash payments of $15,000 to Cr Aziz.
    :::
    Former mayor and one-time aspiring Liberal MP Geoff Ablett also received payments into his bank account of $300,000, and tens of thousands of dollars from Watsons when he unsuccessfully contested the state election in 2014.
    :::
    While the hearings will focus on Casey, IBAC’s public comments make it clear Operation Sandon is far wider in scope and will look at systemic problems in planning decisions statewide.

    Casey, which takes in swelling suburbs such as Cranbourne, Berwick, Clyde and Hallam, is one of the fastest-growing municipalities in Australia.”

    ————-
    I would think there would be jittery folk on both sides of the major political divide.

    On ABC TV news last night successful 2018 Victorian Labor candidate Pauline Richards for Cranbourne District electorate featured. Her campaign received $150,000 from major developer.

    Herald-Sun: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/anticorruption-hearings-into-casey-council-planning-decisions-begins-with-developer-set-to-take-stand/news-story/87e289c4613d10ec247050938cc63173

    May I remind, you!

    William Bowe (Block)
    Monday, November 18th, 2019 – 5:50 pm
    Comment #1700
    Pegasus, I’d prefer it if you didn’t paste slabs of paywalled content here — perhaps especially if it comes from small independent outlets you don’t even link to.

  26. P1,

    What part of,

    “Your demonstrated aptitude in the subject suggests that any attempt would be a waste of time.”

    Didn’t you understand?

  27. Maude Lynne @ #155 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 10:51 am

    Re-reading William’s headline article, from JWS Research, we see:

    When asked to name up to three issues that personally interest or concern them the most and that the Australian Government should focus on, around one third (34%) of Australians describe issues related to the environment and climate change.

    But in the accompanying chart we see that it seems boomers are the ones most concerned, with 48% of the over 55s rating environment and CC as the Number 1 issue.

    They might express concern. But, they rarely let it influence their vote. This is why these sort of pop polls are useless in assessing electoral outcomes as we saw in the last federal election.

  29. Has anyone looked at the campaign photos from the UK election? They look exactly like the Liberal campaign photos from our federal election but with BoJo in place of ScoMo.

  31. The Sydney CBD is barely visible from much of the city as a thick smoke haze from the bushfires chokes large parts of NSW, with health experts warning those with medical conditions to stay inside.

    The Department of Environment said the smoke had pushed air quality beyond “hazardous” levels in Sydney’s north-west, the northern tablelands and the north-west slopes.

    The smoke is spreading from the Gospers Mountain fire, which has burnt more than 120,000 hectares north-west of Sydney and remains an out-of-control fire.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-19/bushfire-smoke-blankets-sydney-and-large-parts-of-nsw/11716450

  32. C@t

    Maybe as it is being run by same people.

    CCHQ alongside Crosby …
    Imagehttps://www.afr.com › … › Europe
    Antipodeans beef up Boris’ campaign, but Crosby isn’t centre stage – Financial Review
    1 Nov 2019 · Isaac Levido helped ScoMo win in May, and has got the band back together for the Conservative campaign. We might not see Crosby, but we’ll …

  33. The focus should be on closing coal power stations as soon as possible, supporting the introduction of electric vehicles, improving farming techniques, reforestation and the like.

    Once achieved these are skills we can then take to the World to assist other Countries making the transition.

    The thing is, this sounds like a marvellous plan if it was 1999. However here in 2019, it doesn’t sound nearly so good.

  34. C@tmomma @ #178 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 11:52 am

    GG,
    Pegasus will say she put in a link and move on to posting great screeds of copy…with a link. 🙄

    Unfortunately, Peggy believes that PB is her Greens’ Pravda propaganda outlet and must only contain screeds of copyrighted material that is either complimentary to the Greens or anti-Labour. She’s like one of those bully plants in the garden like pumpkins that seem to wander and overwhelm wherever they like regardless of the rights of other participants in the garden.

    She’s clearly unable to discuss issues like an adult or highlight a particular point of significance. Links are not the problem. But, blatant copyright abuse is something that should be stamped out.

    For the record, I believe that Phoenix Red often does this as well with his US Politics schtick.

  38. lizzie @ #173 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 11:37 am

    New Politics
    @newpoliticsAU
    ·
    3m
    Even though the bushfires are still burning and the dangers are high, the media is showing a lack of stamina and moved onto other matters. But Morrison shouldn’t be let off the hook: he needs to start do something to reduce climate change factors now, not next month. #AUSPOL

    What was it Tony used to say…..we need a change of government.

  39. Bigger question would be, who put them up to it

    Conversation

    The Associated Press
    @AP
    Two corrections officers suspected of failing to make the required checks on Jeffrey Epstein the night before he took his own life are expected to face charges for falsifying prison logs, two people familiar with the matter tell the AP.

    Criminal charges expected this week against Epstein guards
    WASHINGTON (AP) — Two correctional officers responsible for guarding Jeffrey Epstein when he took his own life are expected to face criminal charges this week for falsifying prison…
    apnews.com

  40. Those of you who are planning to joint the Can the Plan Convoy might want to be ready with some facts.

    Buried in the MDB stocks and flows struggles is salinity.

    This has three dimensions. If the water gets a little bit salty then South Australians can’t drink it. If the water gets too salty it becomes unuseable for irrigation. If the water gets very salty it kills all biodiversity.

    The MDB system mobilizes round 2 million tonnes of salt a year. If there is insufficient flow out of the Murray Mouth then those 2 million tonnes of salt accumulate for ever and a day. But it is more complicated than that.

    There is insufficient flow out of the Murray Mouth to keep it open ATM. Dredging keeps it open.

    Upstreamers basically want to sacrifice the Coorong, Lake Alexandrina and Lake Albert to salty destruction.

    This will be one thing, I assume, that the Can the Plan Convoy peoples will be trying to achieve.

  43. lizzie says:
    Tuesday, November 19, 2019 at 9:39 am
    Eddy Jokovich @EddyJokovich
    ·
    15m
    Pensioners rejoice! Months after voting to support franking credits for others, they’re going to have to retrain and look for jobs. Frydenberg wants over-65s to retrain, even though Liberals have cut TAFE. And even though these people have retired. #auspol

    I think the people receiving the franking credits would not be the same as those Frydenberg has in mind to keep working until they drop.

    From memory, to receive any decent income from franking credits you need to have a large sum at your disposal to invest in shares.

    As usual, it is only the lower and middle income people that the Liberals have in their sights to continue working past retirement age.

  48. Stuart DL
    @DaddoLanglois
    ·
    Made redundant when my former employer closed their Aus operation. Took me 12 months to find another role. Meantime I retrained in traffic control, which gave me a few hours a week at $25 / hr and the joy of having an ice addict try to run me down.

    If Libs really believed people should be “free to make choices” (one of their favourite excuses for doing nothing), they would give potential retirees the ability to choose between a pension or retraining/finding further work.

  49. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/new-dynamic-frydenberg-says-over-60s-need-to-retrain-to-boost-economy-20191118-p53brb.html

    Apologies as this was probably linked earlier, but Frydenberg is getting absolutely panned in the comments. Similarly on a Guardian article that mentions this in passing.

    I have a friend who retrained via a TAFE course at 50. Guess what, she never got any permanent work from it, only some some term casual.
    I left work at 58 because OH needed me as a carer. Now 4 years later, even if I wanted to, and loaded with qualifications, I would not be able to return.

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