The heat is on

An issues poll finds concern about climate change up since the May federal election, and national security down.

One sort-of-poll, and three items of Liberal preselection news:

• The latest results of the JWS Research True Issues survey records growing concern about the environment and climate change, which is now rated among the top five most important issues by 38% of respondents, compared with 33% in June and 31% a year ago. There is diminishing concern about immigration and border security (26%, down from 30% in June and 34% last November and defence, security and terrorism (18%, down from 20% in June and 29% a year ago). A range of measures of general optimism and perceptions of government performance produced weaker results than the June survey, which appeared to record a post-election spike in positive sentiment.

• Jim Molan will shortly return to the Senate after winning a party vote last weekend to fill the New South Wales Senate vacancy caused by Arthur Sinodinos’s resignation. Molan scored 321 votes to 260 for former state party director Richard Shields, adding a second silver medal to his collection after being shaded by Dave Sharma in Wentworth last year. This was despite Molan’s attempt to retain his seat from number four on the ticket at the May election by beseeching supporters to vote for him below the line, to the displeasure of some in the party (and still more of the Nationals, who would have been the losers if Molan had succeeded). Molan was reportedly able to secure moderate faction support due to the apprehension that he will not seek another term beyond the next election.

• The Victorian Liberal Party is embroiled in a dispute over a plan for preselection proceedings for the next federal election to start as soon as January, which has been endorsed by the party’s administrative committee but is bitterly opposed by affected federal MPs. The committee is determined not to see a repeat of the previous term, when preselections were taken out of the hands of branch members to head off a number of challenges to sitting members. Those challenges might now come to fruition, most notably a threat to Howard government veteran Kevin Andrews, whose seat of Menzies is of interest to Keith Wolahan, a barrister and former army officer. Tim Wilson in Goldstein and Russell Broadbent in Monash (formerly McMillan) have also been mentioned as potential targets. According to Rob Harris of The Age, votes in Liberal-held seats could happen as soon as late February, with marginal seats to unfold from April to August and Labor-held seats to be taken care of in October.

• Matthew Denholm of The Australian ($) reports Eric Abetz and his conservative supporters believe they have seen off a threat to his position at the top of the Liberals’ Tasmanian Senate ticket, following elections for the state party’s preselection committee. Abetz’s opponents believed he should make way for rising star Jonathan Duniam to head the ticket, and for the secure second seat to go to Wendy Askew, one of the Tasmanian Liberals’ limited retinue of women MPs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,475 comments on “The heat is on”

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  2. I viewed a number of episodes of the 3rd series of the “The Crown” yesterday. Great acting and script. In the 5th episode, Harold Wilson sacks the overbearing Lord Louis Mountbatten. Elements of the establishment orchestrate a coup, with Louis as its head. There is some evidence that this did occur:

    https://inews.co.uk/culture/television/lord-mountbatten-coup-harold-wilson-the-crown-season-3-episode-5-true-story-1258008

    MI5 certainly kept a dossier on Wilson, thinking he may’ve harboured communist sympathies:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/mi5-kept-secret-file-on-harold-wilson-1797187.htmlhttps://inews.co.uk/culture/television/lord-mountbatten-coup-harold-wilson-the-crown-season-3-episode-5-true-story-1258008

  3. fess

    If the evidence of his treason and corruption becomes irrefutable, Trump will negotiate a deal. Hence, why the impeachment hearings are pertinent

  8. Poroti

    Yes. Australians are going to be in shock at how far left the Democrats have moved.

    Biden is going so well Billionaires are panicking and entering the race late. Not exactly a vote of confidence in Mayor Pete either from them though they did that before the Iowa poll with him in the lead.

    I still think the establishment will ultimately swing behind Warren as the compromise candidate. For them Sanders is a step too far. They will want to stick with the self described capitalist over the socialist Sanders.

    The amusing thing is how much everyone is jumping at shadows over the polls. The scared cat responses ignore the reality of the voting in elections. We know that in Red States the spectre conjured of the Socialist Democrats taking control failed big time. The voters are not paying attention to that no matter if it comes from Donald Trump or MSNBC.

    A lot of Australians are going to be shocked at how far left the Democrats have moved if they win. Even Corporate Candidate Biden has moved left to where Obama was when he left Office.

    A reminder of how the media has been reporting while now we know the election results.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/progressivism-making-democrats/586372/

    Note the heavy emphasis at the start with linking to communism

  9. lizzie,
    The privatised visa system in the UK has also been found to be granting visas to workers that come into the UK and work for less than the minimum wage, with none of the legal conditions for overtime etc met.

  11. C@t

    This whole privatisation trend is a disaster. Always fewer staff and services at more expense. No wonder some of us despair at the unfairness of it all.

  12. Eddy Jokovich @EddyJokovich
    ·
    15m
    Pensioners rejoice! Months after voting to support franking credits for others, they’re going to have to retrain and look for jobs. Frydenberg wants over-65s to retrain, even though Liberals have cut TAFE. And even though these people have retired. #auspol

  13. Lizzie

    It is almost impossible to get a new job in your 50s let alone 60s. They are talking crapola as per usual. And they know it too.

  14. Victoria @ #107 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 9:34 am

    GG

    Why would I hate someone for that. You are on the wrong track. Anyhoo I am entitled to and trust my own judgment

    Trashing a whole family across generations and then smearing an individual’s reputation with innuendo and no evidence says more about you. It’s so very nath!

    But, wink, wink we’ll trust your judgement.

  15. @TinkerSec tweets

    Phineas Phisher hacked a Cayman Islands bank.

    She then posted a “Hackback – DIY Guide to Robbing Banks”

    Edit: I have edited out the links to avoid promoting crime.

  16. I think it’s well past time when we stopped imagining that because someone has the ability to kick straight, or toss a ball into a net, they are automatically endowed with wisdom and insight about the rest of society. Their focus has been very narrow all their lives.

    Depends. Top level sports people normally do not just rely on natural ability. They also need determination and dedication. They need to be organised, work in a team, be mentally strong and agile (in some sports). Most of them are aware of their responsibilities that go beyond self. They have multiple public duties off the court of playing field – often with charities. They have to try to cope with intense public scrutiny where every little failing is highlighted to a broad audience. All the while trying to stay grounded and carry on normal everyday relationships with family and friends.

    It is a tough job. Those that do it well and responsibly are, IMHO, to be lauded.

  17. Some people are trying to get #BringBackBill trending:

    TheAussieProgressive
    @AussieLeftist
    Yeah, Albanese will not win any elections, nor will he help the Australian people like a certain someone would’ve… #BringBackBill #auspol

    4 A BETTER AUSTRALIA
    @AntiAbbottAust
    Nov 17
    #insiders #Auspol #Labor
    #BringBackBill

    Olivia
    @nonquietAussie
    I want Bill back as leader! This new Labor sux! #BringBackBill

    NeilJB
    @NeilJB1
    Is
    @AlboMP
    really an LNP mole?
    #BringBackBill

    Bob
    @Bobsully12
    Nov 15
    I know one thing Bill Shorten would never need an empathy coach.
    #BringBackBill.

  18. GG

    Yeah cos I as an anonymous blogger has power to trash the Ablett family. They are very capable of doing it on their own.

    Hyperboli much. Lol

  19. Josh is just reviving Liberal party dream of ‘Work Till You Drop” for the plebs. Newstart penury in exchange for a pension. Should go down well .

  20. SK

    The dissonance is that what is expected on the field is almost the opposite of what we expect in society as a culture. Its just like the military where we train people to kill. At least with contact sports.

    Just look at the difference in expectations and excuses for contact sports players compared to tennis players as one contrast.

    We excuse an awful lot of off field behaviour with those contact sports.

  22. I kind of feel a bit sorry for the poor old Buyer’s Remorse Crowd.

    They are STILL trying to justify fucking it up for the rest of us.

    They are the ones who, instead of voting for Shorten, voted for Morrison, McCormack, Di Natale, Hanson, Katter and Palmer. So they got Morrison. What a stupid bloody idea that was.

    They are the ones who spent six years Killing Bill.

    They are STILL trying to drive a stake through his heart.

    We could have had a sane, competent and inclusive prime minister.

    Don’t blame me for what Morrison does. If you voted Morrison, McCormack, Di Natale, Hanson, Katter and Palmer do stop all that pathetic whining and whinging. You got what you voted for.

    Don’t Blame me. I voted Shorten.

  23. Simon Katich says: Tuesday, November 19, 2019 at 9:46 am

    Top level sports people normally do not just rely on natural ability.

    They have to try to cope with intense public scrutiny where every little failing is highlighted to a broad audience.

    ******************************************************

    I often think of young sports stars and those in the music industry – who suddenly have lots of money and lots of free time ……. for some its just a recipe for trouble …..

  24. SK

    This can be useful.

    2020 President: Consensus Electoral Map
    As of September 30, 2019
    A consensus outlook for the 2020 presidential election based on the current ratings of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. Additional forecasts will go into this consensus as they become available. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by all of these forecasters are shown in the darkest shade. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 electoral map forecast.>

    September 30, 2019: North Carolina from Leans Republican to Toss Up, Ohio from Likely to Leans Republican, Michigan from Toss Up to Leans Democratic.
    Map Features | Pundit Forecasts | Historical Elections Timeline

    https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast

  25. Mr Frydenberg is quite right in one way.
    We have a series of Boomer issues that are going to put severe strains on the system.
    It is a pity Mr Frydenberg chose to start warbling about this AFTER the election.
    Cos now he has no legitimacy to start bastardizing Boomers.

  26. Vic:

    At this stage I cannot see Trump leaving. At a pinch I can see him going if Republicans in congress appeal to him for the sake of their re-election, but even they’re all in the Trump Cult and can’t even bring themselves to criticise him.

  27. BB

    How very fortunate to have such a wonderful parade of birdlife strutting its stuff.

    Some suggestions for you to consider:
    1. Your grass budgies, aka grass parrots may be Red-rumped Parrots.
    2. Your White-breasted or White-bellied thingies might be White-breasted Woodswallows.
    3. You could have any of three Black Cockatoo species up your way: Yellow-tailed, Glossy or Red-tailed.

  28. Interesting the “ok Boomer” thing.

    Can see where it comes from…but….

    I’d take the “ok Boomer” thing on the chin, but not if it comes from some idiot who voted Lib / Nat.

  29. Boerwar

    Awwww, don’t spoil BB’s fun. 😆

    I notice that a Pacific Black Duck was the lone occupant of one wetland in Kingsford’s survey. Only the tough and common survive?

  30. imacca
    says:
    I’d take the “ok Boomer” thing on the chin, but not if it comes from some idiot who voted Lib / Nat.
    ___________________
    ok boomer

  31. imacca

    If you have not been a boomer who has been arguing for discrimination. For ignoring climate change etc then the OK Boomer thing is not directed at you. Its directed at a mindset.

    I think most of the LNP pollies would probably qualify for the OK Boomer response.

  32. @JarrodWhittaker tweets

    Alina Energy chief executive Jeff Dimery has told ABC’s The Business the low cost of renewables could result in the closure of the Loy Yang B power station well before its scheduled 2048 closure #gippsnews #springst
    _______________________________________________
    @MichaelPascoe tweets

    Frydenberg’s infrastructure tax cut stunt is an admission of incompetence https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/11/15/frydenberg-infrastructure-con/

  33. “We have a series of Boomer issues that are going to put severe strains on the system.”

    And all well foreseen for years.

    FrythePlanet want “Boomers” to retrain to keep labor market participation up and wages growth down.

    They will at some point revisit the whole thing with Pension Age going up and “aligning” Super Preservation Age with Pension Age.

    I reckon the next issue they are going to have to deal with is the un-sustainablility of Private Health. I think that its being propped up by aging Boomers who will hang on to it regardless. Next gen’s not so keen.

  34. Boerwar

    Any ‘Boomer’ problem should be fairly short lived. Just as there was a rapid increase in numbers born followed by a rapid decline in births there will be a rapid increase in numbers being ‘old’ followed by a rapid fall in numbers as they drop off the perch.

    Besides, the boomer bulge and its ‘pension problem’ has been known and spoken of for many decades. So our political class would certainly have ensured adequate provisions were in place many many years ago. 😆 😆 😆

  35. “Its directed at a mindset.”

    No probs personally with it guytaur….i just get a little annoyed when hypocrites use it and it seems to be becoming rather “fashionable” as these things do..

    Any Lib/Nat supporter who uses it is, by definition, a hypocrite who is proven stupid enough to vote directly against their own interests.

    “I think most of the LNP pollies would probably qualify for the OK Boomer response.”

    🙂 ……or just facepalm with full pike. 🙁

  37. lizzie @ #111 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 9:38 am

    C@t

    This whole privatisation trend is a disaster. Always fewer staff and services at more expense. No wonder some of us despair at the unfairness of it all.

    And don’t forget the corruption. That was one of the things that brought Howard low, Cash for Visa Agents.

    I must say, that the Coalition never let something go, they are like a dog with a bone. Howard wanted to privatise the visa system as a favour to his mates, but waas thwarted, so, junior woodchuck in the Howard government, Peter Dutton, has made sure that he did it if he got the chance, all these years later.

  39. a r @ #138 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 10:19 am

    guytaur @ #132 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 9:08 am

    @JarrodWhittaker tweets

    Alinta Energy chief executive Jeff Dimery has told ABC’s The Business the low cost of renewables could result in the closure of the Loy Yang B power station well before its scheduled 2048 closure #gippsnews #springst

    Good. That power station burns coal. Fuck it.

    And a Close Loy Yang Convoy by The Greens wasn’t needed to do it. Just the market.

  41. ‘lizzie says:
    Tuesday, November 19, 2019 at 10:04 am

    Boerwar

    Awwww, don’t spoil BB’s fun.

    I notice that a Pacific Black Duck was the lone occupant of one wetland in Kingsford’s survey. Only the tough and common survive?’

    Fortunately Australia’s waterbirds are accustomed to boom and bust. That said, some water birds are going to struggle to avoid extinction.

  42. ‘poroti says:
    Tuesday, November 19, 2019 at 10:09 am

    Boerwar

    Any ‘Boomer’ problem should be fairly short lived. ‘

    Nah. Boomers are going to live forever!

  43. https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-11-14/hello-from-earth-10-years-on-interstellar-message/11701586

    What would you say to an alien civilisation on an Earth-like planet far, far away?

    “Greetings from a girl on Earth who, every so often, looks up at the night sky and waves hello in the hope that someone on another planet is doing the same.”

    This message from Sophie of Longmont, Colorado, in the United States, is just one of almost 26,000 sent from Australia to an Earth-like planet 20 light-years away.

    But it will upset some people.”

    “Some scientists believe that sending such messages alerts potential extraterrestrial civilisations of our existence, which they consider unwise and potentially catastrophic.”

    Late news ⏬⏬

    Message received from a planet far far away.

    “There’s nobody here but us chickens”. 🐤🐥

  44. If you don’t like visas being privatized and you voted for Morrison, McCormack, Di Natale, Hanson, Katter and Palmer then you helped deliver privatized visas.

    If you spent some time Killing Bill, then you helped deliver privatized visas.

    What you should have done was vote Shorten.

    Enjoy your buyer’s remorse. There is plenty more come from where privatized visas came from.

  45. FatherBob
    @FatherBob
    ·
    11h
    Back from ABCTV where Tom Whitty and crew, incl Waleed Aly and Annabelle Crabb, staged the first episode of Australia Speaks…Julie Bishop got a seat on the panel and Rosie Batty was a roving reporter.

    I hope Julie Bishop did not require appearance money.

  46. Sam Aziz and Geoff Ablett in the City of Casey thingo. Why isn’t it splashed everywhere that these two are both Liberal Party members????

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/developer-paid-millions-into-the-accounts-of-local-councillors-corruption-probe-20191118-p53bkb.html

    “Mr Tovey said some payments were in cash and appeared to be “patently corrupt”. In a bizarre twist to the Casey story, Mr Woodman told the hearing that one councillor, former mayor and Liberal activist Sam Aziz, had given him a suitcase filled with $600,000 in cash as a loan for investment in development. In return Mr Woodman made monthly cash payments of $15,000 to Cr Aziz.
    :::
    Former mayor and one-time aspiring Liberal MP Geoff Ablett also received payments into his bank account of $300,000, and tens of thousands of dollars from Watsons when he unsuccessfully contested the state election in 2014.
    :::
    While the hearings will focus on Casey, IBAC’s public comments make it clear Operation Sandon is far wider in scope and will look at systemic problems in planning decisions statewide.

    Casey, which takes in swelling suburbs such as Cranbourne, Berwick, Clyde and Hallam, is one of the fastest-growing municipalities in Australia.”

    ————-
    I would think there would be jittery folk on both sides of the major political divide.

    On ABC TV news last night successful 2018 Victorian Labor candidate Pauline Richards for Cranbourne District electorate featured. Her campaign received $150,000 from major developer.

    Herald-Sun: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/anticorruption-hearings-into-casey-council-planning-decisions-begins-with-developer-set-to-take-stand/news-story/87e289c4613d10ec247050938cc63173

  47. @_marshallstreet

    Who finds this insulting?

    Starts@60, a specialist web platform dedicated to seniors entering “this super-exciting life stage of their lives”.
    ‘The voice and heartbeat of the Baby Boomer generation’, they claim.
    Left: The product; Right: the staff.

  49. lizzie @ #145 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 10:29 am

    FatherBob
    @FatherBob
    ·
    11h
    Back from ABCTV where Tom Whitty and crew, incl Waleed Aly and Annabelle Crabb, staged the first episode of Australia Speaks…Julie Bishop got a seat on the panel and Rosie Batty was a roving reporter.

    I hope Julie Bishop did not require appearance money.

    I hope she didn’t hog the limelight.

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