The heat is on

An issues poll finds concern about climate change up since the May federal election, and national security down.

One sort-of-poll, and three items of Liberal preselection news:

• The latest results of the JWS Research True Issues survey records growing concern about the environment and climate change, which is now rated among the top five most important issues by 38% of respondents, compared with 33% in June and 31% a year ago. There is diminishing concern about immigration and border security (26%, down from 30% in June and 34% last November and defence, security and terrorism (18%, down from 20% in June and 29% a year ago). A range of measures of general optimism and perceptions of government performance produced weaker results than the June survey, which appeared to record a post-election spike in positive sentiment.

• Jim Molan will shortly return to the Senate after winning a party vote last weekend to fill the New South Wales Senate vacancy caused by Arthur Sinodinos’s resignation. Molan scored 321 votes to 260 for former state party director Richard Shields, adding a second silver medal to his collection after being shaded by Dave Sharma in Wentworth last year. This was despite Molan’s attempt to retain his seat from number four on the ticket at the May election by beseeching supporters to vote for him below the line, to the displeasure of some in the party (and still more of the Nationals, who would have been the losers if Molan had succeeded). Molan was reportedly able to secure moderate faction support due to the apprehension that he will not seek another term beyond the next election.

• The Victorian Liberal Party is embroiled in a dispute over a plan for preselection proceedings for the next federal election to start as soon as January, which has been endorsed by the party’s administrative committee but is bitterly opposed by affected federal MPs. The committee is determined not to see a repeat of the previous term, when preselections were taken out of the hands of branch members to head off a number of challenges to sitting members. Those challenges might now come to fruition, most notably a threat to Howard government veteran Kevin Andrews, whose seat of Menzies is of interest to Keith Wolahan, a barrister and former army officer. Tim Wilson in Goldstein and Russell Broadbent in Monash (formerly McMillan) have also been mentioned as potential targets. According to Rob Harris of The Age, votes in Liberal-held seats could happen as soon as late February, with marginal seats to unfold from April to August and Labor-held seats to be taken care of in October.

• Matthew Denholm of The Australian ($) reports Eric Abetz and his conservative supporters believe they have seen off a threat to his position at the top of the Liberals’ Tasmanian Senate ticket, following elections for the state party’s preselection committee. Abetz’s opponents believed he should make way for rising star Jonathan Duniam to head the ticket, and for the secure second seat to go to Wendy Askew, one of the Tasmanian Liberals’ limited retinue of women MPs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,475 comments on “The heat is on”

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  1. Morning all and thanks BK and William for the coverage. So Australians finally realise that they voted for a fake scare campaign when the real issues they should have worried about were addressed by Labor and Greens policies.

    This article highlights that there really are better ways to manage traffic congestion than the billions we waste on new freeways.
    https://theconversation.com/smart-tech-systems-cut-congestion-for-a-fraction-of-what-new-roads-cost-125718

    And this one explains why driverless cars won’t solve it.
    https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-wont-deliver-a-transport-revolution-and-the-auto-industry-stands-to-lose-out-60811

  2. A total fire ban has been declared for South Australia on Tuesday ahead of a day of potentially catastrophic fire conditions on Wednesday.
    While the temperature in Adelaide is expected to hit 30C on Tuesday, the CFS says fire bans have been issued because a bushfire on Wednesday could not be controlled.
    The temperature on that day is expected to reach 42C in Adelaide, 45C at Ceduna, 44C at Murray Bridge, Whyalla and Port Lincoln, and 43C at Port Pirie.

  5. “Don’t do it”, but the Morrison gov never takes advice, do they!

    London: Australians are suffering delays, huge expense and frustration in the UK’s newly privatised visa processing system – and have warned the Australian government to call a halt to its ongoing multibillion-dollar plan to go down the same path.

    The UK outsourced its visa processing to the private sector at the end of last year, and users regularly take to social media to complain of a dire lack of free appointments for interviews, an absurdly overpriced phone helpline and a discriminatory “fast track” for those who can afford to pay for premium service.

    But Australia’s Home Affairs Department is already well on the way to privatising the vast bulk of its own visa processing, with the first stage tender winner due to be announced soon, and the first visas due to be delivered on the new platform in early 2021.

    The Australian version will charge an extra “service fee” on top of the usual visa fee for applicants to pay for the privatisation, and “premium services” for applicants “including for those who may make the highest economic contribution to Australia”, according to tender documents on the Home Affairs website.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/don-t-do-what-the-uk-did-aussies-sound-warning-at-dutton-s-visa-plan-20191017-p531mz.html

  6. Today is “International Men’s Day.”
    Also theAnniversay of the sinking HMAS Sydney (1941).

    https://www.amhf.org.au/how_to_celebrate_international_men_s_day

    While there are huge variety of ways you can mark International Men’s Day, most celebrations share one or more of the following objectives:
    •Valuing male role models
    •Acknowledging the contribution of men and boys
    •Improving male health
    •Tackling discrimination and disadvantage
    •Fostering positive gender relations

    Or from Twitter –

    https://twitter.com/search?q=international+men%27s+day&ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Esearch

    Posting quota reached. Toodles. 😎

  7. Sam Aziz and Geoff Ablett in the City of Casey thingo. Why isn’t it splashed everywhere that these two are both Liberal Party members????

  8. Lauraine knight @rainey_knight
    ·
    Nov 17
    I remember Bill Shorten as Special Fire Envoy going to Kinglake after Black Friday handing out food and water and showing real empathy to the victims of such a Tragedy, he didn’t need to pay $190,000 for Empathy Lessons like #FauxMo the Charlatan.

  9. Birds in our trees have gone tribal. Of low intellectual content, but high volume, the conversation goes something like:

    “GALAHS RULE!”

    “CORELAS ON TOP!”

    “GALAHS!”

    “CORELAS!”

    “GALAHS!”

    “CORELAS!”

    “GALAAAAAAAHS!”

    “CORELLLLLLLAS!”

    “Grass budgies!”

    “WOT?”

  10. This is more a sign of desperation by the “adults” in charge that their marvellous, incredible, wonderful, etc, fiscal policies and the marvellous, incredible, wonderful, etc, economy are in dire straits.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-dynamic-frydenberg-says-over-60s-need-to-retrain-to-boost-economy-20191118-p53brb.html

    Can anyone see Friedbrainburger retraining when he retires, or is removed, or sitting back with his roughly $200,000 (plus bonuses) a year sitting on his gold pedestal sipping chanpagne while watching the peons scrabbling to survive.

  11. PeeBeesays:

    ‘Daniel Andrews needs to realise if Victoria cannot guarantee a reliable power supply then companies are going to pack up and leave, taking hundreds of blue collar jobs with them.’

    Where was the concern for blue collar workers when the car industry was shut down?

    At a guess, sitting next to the concern for the Textile Clothing and Footwear industry workers when they all got thrown under the bus.

  12. Alpha Zero @ #57 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 8:51 am

    Sam Aziz and Geoff Ablett in the City of Casey thingo. Why isn’t it splashed everywhere that these two are both Liberal Party members????

    It’s far more important to Victorians that Geoff Ablett played in a couple of Premierships for Hawthorn and is the brother of the great Gary Ablett senior.

  15. @lynlinking
    ·
    1h
    ‘New dynamic’: Frydenberg says over-60s need to retrain to boost economy But they have run into issues finding work with a 39 per cent jump in the number of unemployed over 65s looking for full time work

    How the hell are they to find work, when the recruitment firms are so biased towards the young? Pollies such as Josh, with a fat salary, an expensive house (yes, I’ve seen the photos) have no idea of reality.

  16. Morrison had little choice when saying of Folau’s latest salvo: “I thought these were appallingly insensitive comments”. It’s doubtful, though, that his criticism was genuine.

  17. Lizzie

    Privatisation the Neo Liberal scourge.

    We are doubling down when the fight is on in the UK and US against it.

    https://www.inquisitr.com/5746138/bernie-sanders-leads-2020-democratic-primary-poll/

    I note the MSM is now talking up Mayor Pete so they can ignore this national result.
    Don’t get me wrong I will support Biden or whoever the nominee is over Trump but the media bias is remarkable.

    The elites really want Sanders not to be talked about. Just as they hate Corbyn with a passion for the same reasons. Tax. Brexit is just a bit more obvious with wanting the UK to become a tax haven for the EU.

  18. corruption at local council level is rampant as exposed in Casey. Fortunately in Victoria the Minister for local government is Adem Somyurek………..

  19. I’ve been able to avoid using private visa services so far by heading straight to the Embassy. They seem overpriced and more complicated than dealing direct.

    It is hilarious that a Government so full of tough on borders rhetoric, is willing to give away control of this critical part of the system.

  22. Lizzie

    I follow football closely and the Ablett family have been exceptionally talented footballers.

    But as decent, smart, considerate humans beings, not so much. That’s as polite as I am going to be about them.

  25. Energy Minister Angus Taylor will demand tougher energy ­reliability standards in a move that could trigger legal obligations on major retailers in some states, including Victoria, to source more power from coal, gas and hydro.

    The intervention comes with the market regulator already warning of blackouts this summer in Victoria, which is under pressure to meet the current standard and will likely be forced to again seek emergency reserves during periods of high demand, with 1.3 million households forecast to be at risk of power outages.

    Mr Taylor told The Australian that he would be asking for agreement on the tougher standards at a Council of Australian Governments meeting of his state and territory counterparts on Friday.

    Victoria, which has placed a strong focus on renewables, has said it would agree to revised standards but wants to include a strategic reserve. The federal government claims this would risk pushing up prices.

    Mr Taylor said the current reliability standard was too weak.

    According to the Australian Energy Market Operator, under a revised standard Victoria would have a capacity shortfall of more than 435MW — the equivalent of a new gas-fired power plant — triggering a mechanism called the retail reliability obligation (RRO), which requires retail electricity companies to hold contracts or ­invest in generation to maintain reliability. South Australia is also likely to suffer supply issues this summer although it has moved to increase gas generation following statewide blackouts in 2017.

    NSW faces a similar shortfall after the closure of AGL’s Liddell power plant in 2023.

    “As an energy minister with a strong focus on reliability and the price impacts of a shortage of ­reliable generation, I can tell you my tolerance is tested,” Mr Taylor will say in a speech to an energy summit in Sydney on Tuesday.

  26. Spot on…….

    debidiamonds
    @debidiamonds
    Replying to
    @nelsonwendella
    and
    @realDonaldTrump
    Ever notice the same people who voted for trump because he “says what he means”, have spent the last 3 years explaining that he didn’t mean what he said?

  27. So when Folau was abusing gays we needed to urgently protect religious free speech. When he is attacking other groups, especially in areas affecting firies and farmers, it is suddenly abhorrent.
    That sounds consistent (and fair)

  29. Seen so far this morning on or from our deck, or in the bird bath:

    ● Corelas (pair),
    ● Rainbow lorikeets (flock),
    ● Grass Budgies (family),
    ● White-headed Pigeons (pair),
    ● Eastern Rosella (single),
    ● Grey Butcherbirds (family),
    ● Brush Turkey (single),
    ● Blue-faced Honeyeater,
    ● Black Cockatoo (family, in tree),
    ● Osprey (circling),
    ● Pelicans (pair),
    ● Kookaburra (single)
    ● King Parrot (2 feuding pairs)
    ● Noisy Mynahs,
    ● Currawong (single, chased away by everyone),
    ● Magpie (family),
    ● Yellow-breasted Whatserface (not sure what it is).

    And it’s only just gone 9am!

  30. Greensborough Growlersays:
    Tuesday, November 19, 2019 at 9:04 am

    lizzie @ #70 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 9:00 am

    the brother of the great Gary Ablett senior.

    Who turned out not to be very smart, as I recall.

    So, how many AFL games did you play?

    Ability on a sporting field does not automatically make you a wonderful, perfect human being!

  31. GG

    Smarty pants. I think Victoria has got it right.

    I think it’s well past time when we stopped imagining that because someone has the ability to kick straight, or toss a ball into a net, they are automatically endowed with wisdom and insight about the rest of society. Their focus has been very narrow all their lives.

  32. Victoria,

    When Nixon was under threat of Impeachment, all his officials and allies supported him and his cause. They all went to jail and Nixon did not.

    This current scenario may play out the same way.

  33. guytaur

    I note the MSM is now talking up Mayor Pete so they can ignore this national result.

    Read an article which looked at which demographic showed the most support for each candidate. Good ol’ mayor Pete’s top demographic support came from the filthy rich . So he must be something that calms their nerves. So no surprise if it shows up as the MSM support.

  34. GG

    It may indeed.

    I have felt for very long time, Trump has been considering his options. His health is no doubt compromised due to his poor diet, age and drug abuse.

    Therefore his latest pit stop at Walter reed would have been based on some reality.
    I’m thinking it could be the foundation of him playing the bad health card. Something I believed from the get go. Depending on how much of his corruptible behaviour is exposed, will depend on what card he plays.

    As always, watch this space

  35. Josh isn’t getting much love this morning.

    @BelindaJones68
    ·
    3m
    What a load of hypocritical crap
    @JoshFrydenberg !

    “This will require calm and considered decision-making instead of engaging in knee-jerk reactions to every economic event, or requests for more government spending.”

    2 words for ya Joshie – Christmas Island

  37. poroti @ #83 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 9:11 am

    guytaur

    I note the MSM is now talking up Mayor Pete so they can ignore this national result.

    Read an article which looked at which demographic showed the most support for each candidate. Good ol’ mayor Pete’s top demographic support came from the filthy rich . So he must be something that calms their nerves. So no surprise if it shows up as the MSM support.

    It might also be that he’s a Rhodes Scholar and went Oxford University, is an Afghan and Iraq War veteran and is an eloquent sensible Centrist, who also appeals to the LGBTQI community. All by the age of 37. But hey, grab a hold of whatever negative you can to dismiss him, huh?

  38. lizzie @ #85 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 9:14 am

    Josh isn’t getting much love this morning.

    @BelindaJones68
    ·
    3m
    What a load of hypocritical crap
    @JoshFrydenberg !

    “This will require calm and considered decision-making instead of engaging in knee-jerk reactions to every economic event, or requests for more government spending.”

    2 words for ya Joshie – Christmas Island

    And it was the sensible and prompt reaction by the Labor federal government to the GFC that saved Australia’s bacon! Not the laggard and sloth-like Austerity that the Coalition government favours.

  39. I think this is worth reposting for those saying now is not the time to talk about climate change

    The quote you are about to read did not come from Scott Morrison, although our prime minister repeatedly invoked the same sentiments this week, every time someone asked him about the role of climate change in eastern Australia’s unprecedented bushfires.

    “This sort of response isn’t helpful. Families are mourning. Offer a prayer and temper your desire for politics …”

    Nor is this next quote from New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian, who deemed it “inappropriate” to talk about the causes of climate change while her state was burning:

    “This is a time for people to grieve, to mourn, and to heal. This is not a time for political discussions or public policy debates.”

    Those words aren’t attributable to Barnaby Joyce or Michael McCormack, or John Barilaro, or any of the other advocates of a bigger Australian fossil fuel industry. Nor was it Joel Fitzgibbon, or other “coalies” on the Labor side.

    Actually, the quotes come from the United States’ National Rifle Association.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2019/11/16/actually-it-climate-change/15738228009076

  40. lizzie @ #81 Tuesday, November 19th, 2019 – 9:09 am

    GG

    Smarty pants. I think Victoria has got it right.

    I think it’s well part time when we stopped imagining that because someone has the ability to kick straight, or toss a ball into a net, they are automatically endowed with wisdom and insight about the rest of society. Their focus has been vary narrow all their lives.

    I don’t.

    Gary Ablett junior is a terrific footballer and a great role model and mentor for anyone that follows the game.

  41. Meanwhile in the UK

    chris zappone
    @chrizap
    ·
    12h
    “The Bureau of Investigative Journalism has today launched legal action aimed at forcing the government to release a report into potential Russian interference in British politics.”
    The Bureau mounts legal challenge for release of Russian interference report
    The Bureau has instructed its lawyers to write to the prime minister requesting the report and, if necessary, challenge any refusal with an application for judicial review
    thebureauinvestigates.com

  43. From last thread …

    Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #1805 Monday, November 18th, 2019 – 10:53 pm

    Your demonstrated aptitude in the subject suggests that any attempt would be a waste of time.

    Nobody is going to take your nonsense on climate change seriously here until you at least try and demonstrate that you understand the difference between weather and climate.

  45. “As an energy minister with a strong focus on reliability and the price impacts of a shortage of ­reliable generation, I can tell you my tolerance is tested,” Mr Taylor will say in a speech to an energy summit in Sydney on Tuesday.

    As an Australian citizen who can’t go outside this morning because the smoke haze is so bad that it induces coughing fits and headaches, I am sorely disappointed that this Minister thinks he can get away with forcing State governments to build more CO2 Emissions-emitting power plants and that he didn’t once mention Climate Change in his diatribe! 😡

    And, anyway, why hasn’t Angus Taylor been stood down yet by Scott Morrison for self-dealing and giving advantages and taxpayer $$ to his family as well?

  46. GG

    Gary Ablett junior is a great footballer and he does what is required as an ambassador of the game. As an individual, I have a different view.

  48. Victoria says: Tuesday, November 19, 2019 at 9:13 am

    Therefore his latest pit stop at Walter reed would have been based on some reality.
    I’m thinking it could be the foundation of him playing the bad health card. Something I believed from the get go.

    ********************************************************

    Jon Cooper, the chairman of the Democratic Coalition gives HIS opinion ……

    Donald Trump Will Resign Blaming Poor Health Before House Can Impeach Him, Democratic Activist Predicts

    A leading Democratic organizer has predicted that the impeachment investigation could spell the end for President Donald Trump, by prompting either internal betrayal or forcing the commander in chief to hand the reins over to the vice president.

    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-will-resign-blaming-poor-health-before-house-can-impeach-him-democratic-activist-1472358?utm_campaign=NewsweekTwitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter

  50. Donald Trump Will Resign Blaming Poor Health Before House Can Impeach Him, Democratic Activist Predicts

    A leading Democratic organizer has predicted that the impeachment investigation could spell the end for President Donald Trump, by prompting either internal betrayal or forcing the commander in chief to hand the reins over to the vice president.

    Sounds like wishful thinking to me. Has the person been watching how Trump just digs in instead of admitting defeat and giving in?

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