Hopes that the Australian polling industry might again have something to offer soon have been been raised by YouGov’s announcement on Thursday that it is overhauling its polling methodology, and pursuing the establishment of a local industry body along the lines of the British Polling Council.
On the first point, the pollster says it will “transition to the standard YouGov methodology for national and statewide polling”. This means an end to the mix of online and automated phone polling associated with Galaxy Research, the established local outfit that has been conducting Newspoll since 2015, and which YouGov bought out at the end of 2017. In line with its modus operandi internationally, YouGov will move entirely to online polling, enabling it to adopt a more detailed scheme of demographic weightings that will encompass variables “such as education and more sophisticated regional segments”.
We may already have received a taste of this with the recent YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted entirely online and supplemented the traditional weighting model of “age interlocked with gender and region” with variables for education and voting at the previous election. This looks much like the pollster’s approach with its British polling, but with education taking the place of a “social grade” variable that holds those with managerial or supervisory jobs distinct from the rest of the workforce.
The notion of an Australian Polling Council offers the exciting prospect of industry standards that will require the publication of sample weightings and full demographic and regional breakdowns from each poll, such as can be seen in this recent YouGov poll of voting intention in Britain. The YouGov announcement says that “several other companies have agreed in principle to establish this council and an announcement will be made in due course”.
Also of note recently:
• The first batch of submissions to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into the recent federal election has been published. This does not include the Labor submission, but The Guardian reports it calls for the committee to investigate the impact on election campaigning of social media platforms, its specific concern being with the widespread circulation of claims through Facebook that it had “secret plans to introduce a death tax”.
• The Australian reports the Nationals federal council has endorsed a proposal floated a fortnight ago to all but purge the Senate of minor parties by breaking each state into six provinces that would each return a single Senator at a normal half-Seante election.
• The challenges to the election results in the Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Kooyong have been referred for trial in the Federal Court, which will likely take about three months to reach a determination.
Diogenes @ #1589 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 12:07 am
Diogs,
It’s all about the timing for both Johnson and and Corbyn.
Political calculations are always about being in front when it counts.
Pelosi pulls the impeachment trigger… what a 24 hours!
So the Morrison government has ‘declined’ the opportunity to be accountable to the people? Good oh. Roll on the Authoritarian Kleptocracy. 😐
Dandy Murray @ #1602 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 7:10 am
I reckon when the President of the United States goes, ‘so what if I did ring another nation’s leader to ask him for kompromat on a political opponent?’, is a pretty good time to pull that trigger.
JUST IN: House launches formal impeachment inquiry
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi just announced Congress is launching a formal impeachment inquiry.
“The President must be held accountable. No one is above the law,” she said
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-ukraine-09-24-2019/index.html
Trump responds to Impeachment …
I reckon when the President of the United States goes, ‘so what if I did ring another nation’s leader to ask him for kompromat on a political opponent?’, is a pretty good time to pull that trigger.
Apparently he didn’t ask for kompromat, he asked them to manufacture kompromat…
But what do I know? From what I’ve seen of her, I don’t image Pelosi has gone of half-cocked, so I reckon she’s been given assurances there is concrete evidence. I really hope it is not a catfish or some-such.
Now it’s up to Republicans in Congress to put country before party.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/pelosi-top-democrats-privately-discuss-creation-of-select-committee-for-impeachment/2019/09/24/af6f735a-dedf-11e9-b199-f638bf2c340f_story.html
And in the Senate…
Trump explodes after Pelosi backs impeachment: She ‘had to ruin’ my ‘important day’
On Tuesday, immediately after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announced she would support a formal impeachment investigation into President Donald Trump, the president replied with an multi-part angry outburst on Twitter — accusing Democrats of trying to drown out coverage of his United Nations speech:
Such an important day at the United Nations, so much work and so much success, and the Democrats purposely had to ruin and demean it with more breaking news Witch Hunt garbage. So bad for our Country!
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/09/breaking-news-witch-hunt-garbage-trump-rages-against-impeachment-inquiry-in-twitter-rant/
@Nicholas:
“I think the most democratic way to proceed is for the House of Commons to vote to withdraw the Article 50 declaration and require that another plebiscite be held to ask the public which option it prefers out of 1. Remain; 2. No Deal Brexit; Negotiated Brexit.”
_____
OK. I’ll bite.
The first thing to note is that by comparison to Australian referendums the 2016 Brexit referendum was little more than a voluntary straw poll. Remain was largely defeated through apathy amongst the pool of citizens who were more or less slightly pro European but generally disengaged in the political process (looking at you Mellenials).
The second thing to note is just how flawed the voluntary straw poll approach was once Leave won the popular vote: Far from Parliament implementing ‘the will of the people’ it has proved to be largely an exercise in voodoo in trying to reach consensus on what ‘the will of the people’ actually is. All the while support for Remain has been at least 48% at all times, maybe even a clear majority at some other times. Neither the May deal or Hard or ‘no deal’ Brexit has gained unanimous or even overwhelming support by the 40-51% (take your pick) of the adult population that aspirationally favour leaving the EU.
Contrary to what Nicholas has suggested a 3 way referendum would unlikely produce a ‘democratic outcome’. At least 45% would favour remain but the preference of the Leavers would be split. In that scenario ‘the will of the majority’ would be thwarted.
No, the ‘way ahead’ is a series of plebiscites where the voters are asked to choose between various ‘leave’ models (which have been sufficiently nutted out in advance so that the basic structures of what would happen if such a model were actually implements would be known and capable of being digested). Then, once that process identified the most favoured model, then Parliament should draft and conditionally pass enabling legislation, and a final binding referendum be held to either (1) endorse Leave on that basis or (2) remain in the EU. Such a referendum should of course be a compulsory vote.
Now THAT would be democratic. Also sensible.
lizzie @ #1607 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 7:21 am
Probably the same reason.
‘Braincells leaking out of my ears’: Internet recoils at Trump’s insane UN address
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump took the podium to deliver a deeply ideological address at the United Nations General Assembly.
As the president spoke, commenters on social media expressed their shock at his bizarre attacks on immigrant rights groups, his alleged use of white nationalist dog whistles, and his apparent desire to antagonize every other country he could think of.
A few other commentators noted his general lack of energy and slurred speech, and the fact that even members of Trump’s own Cabinet appeared unable to sit through all of this:
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/09/braincells-leaking-out-of-my-ears-internet-recoils-at-trumps-insane-un-address/
Tea Pain @TeaPainUSA
Dang. Trump’s listless and his speech is slurred as he addresses the UN. Tea’s seen more energetic death bed confessions.
Excel;lent roundup today from BK
From the BK files
A Fox News guest in the US has said Greta Thunberg is “mentally ill” and the network was forced to apologise.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/a-fox-news-guest-called-greta-thunberg-mentally-ill-the-network-apologised-20190925-p52uln.html
Last night while of unsound mind I quickly glanced at the Home Page of The Australian. Sadly my glance was too slow – our old friend Mr. Chris. Kenny is apparently loose in the wild again (and as the comments show has been surrounded by a pack of ferocious morons).
Tell it like it is Chris baby ❗
Mr. Chris Kenny is a many times holder of my Mongrel of the Month award.
A couple of comments from the article.
Not to be outdone – from The Daily Telegraph —
Oh ❗ Miranda – Mirror, Mirror on the wall who’s the deluderest one of all ❓
Song for the day – “Got to pick a pocket or two”
♫Why should we ♫ break our ♪ backs?
Stupidly ♫ Paying ♫ tax
Better ♫ get some ♫ untaxed ♪ income
♫ Better ♫ pick a ♪ pocket or ♫two
♫ You’ve got to ♫ pick a ♫ pocket or ♪ two Boys!
You’ve ♫ got to ♫ pick a ♫ pocket ♫ or two
And so it goes…..
E & OE ☮ ☕
KayJay
Thank you (???) for the quotes from the mad right. Their twisted logic is a tutorial for us all.
What a conman is Morrison. He’s now saying “don’t frighten the children” over climate change. His stock in trade is frightening the Australian people (asylum seekers, rhetoric at election time etc etc).
lizzie @ #1278 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 7:39 am
I get angry (temporarily) firstly because of the malice and vindictiveness behind the articles and secondly because of the just plain ignorance of the support.
Enough from me – I need to do some cleaning work and mowing to restore my equanimity.
Over and out. 😇
A very real problem now is that climate extremists are playing into the hands of the coal extremists.
The result is that the ‘debate’ is channeled into ludicrous domains that will never make a skerrick of difference to climate action.
Thus the debate about whether or not women should go on climate birthstrike. Seriously? Who gives a FF about that?
Thus the debate about whether or not school children should go on schoolstrike. There are around 650 million school kids in the world. Well less than half a per cent went on schoolstrike. Yep. Around 648 million school kids went to school instead of going on strike.
There are around 2 billion women of child bearing age in the world. A couple of dozen are engaged in a climate birth strike. Yep. Around 2 billion women are going ahead and having babies.
One of the keys to a rational debate instead of an extremist debate is the lack of time frames upon which to base the various comparative statements.
And then there is the way the debates are shifted into personalities such as Thunberg and Attenborough and thus into the intellectual void of intergenerational papthink. I am older than Thunberg, younger than Attenborough and I am very angry about global warming. So fucking what?
Will dropping our collective guts make the slightest bit of difference? Nope. Don’t get angry. Don’t get even. Get ahead.
citizen @ #1617 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 7:45 am
Listening to Scrotty ‘feeding the chooks’ in New York this morning.
It was a masterclass in how to argue white is black.
The chooks ate it up.
Yesiree, Scrotty’s in it for the loooong haul.
Now, back to life…….
Before they do anything else in the UK they should hold a referendum on the following:
1. Mandatory five per cent increase in wages.
2. 10% tax increase on top 5 per cent of all corporates.
There would be no more talk from the Rabid Right about democracy, the will of the people, democracy or sovereign control.
No no no. Not true. The coal extremists and their disciples will say or do anything to discredit those with a passion for the needed change. Bring on the climate crimes tribunals and lets bring them all to justice.
‘Activists are taking advantage of Greta Thunberg’, seems to be the frame du jour of the Rabid Right. Like a bunch of paedophiles, eh, Chris? I think that’s the implicit assertion there.
Well I think Greta Thunberg is her own young woman, and these old lags complicit in the corruption that is enabling Global Heating better watch out because she isn’t going to be intimidated into silence by them!
Corbyn’s best chance of winning is an election 2 or so months after brexit (really stupid hard, or mostly stupid May’s agreement).
The ‘children’ aren’t frightened. They’re angry!
But yet you just wasted all that angry keyboard warrior energy on shooting your own side, as if you are some moderate genius above your own side. If we assumed for a moment that angry keyboard warrior energy is useful energy why waste it?
sprocket_ @ #1606 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 7:19 am
Well then, Donald, give them the transcript. 🙂
Mr Morrison called for “context and perspective” in the climate debate
HIS ‘context’.
HIS ‘perspective’.
Yeah nah.
Morrison may be a “clever marketer” of messages, but this is the level of his sophistication.
lizzie @ #1629 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 8:07 am
Can I have lies with that?
While I agree with his sentiment, about our political ruling class actually taking a day or two off their wide spread corruption to actually rule, the problem with our Parliament is there has been effectively no opposition to the executive in the past 7 years.
Where’s Albo?
In the corner hiding and / or furiously supporting every step of executive over reach.
GG
If Morrison is accused of ‘campaigning’ with Trump, especially if Trump is in trouble, he’s quite capable of denying he was ever in America at all, such is his arrogance.
Thanks KayJay for this piece from Mr Kenny
Kenny is of course hinting that Greta is ‘mentally ill’ but cannot say that because yesterday one of his colleagues on Fox News did just that and the Fox network was forced to issue a rare apology.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/24/media/fox-news-greta-thunberg/index.html
It’s incredible that Labor/Adani supporters on here don’t realise that Thunberg and those like her are actually protesting against them as well as the far-right. YOU are part of the problem.
Firefox
Don’t look at me!
‘Firefox says:
Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 8:18 am
It’s incredible that Labor/Adani supporters on here don’t realise that Thunberg and those like her are actually protesting against them as well as the far-right. YOU are part of the problem.’
You do realize that the Greens coal policy allows for Australian coal mining, coal-fired power generation and coal exports to continue to at least 2040?
Or do you think your political responsibilities are limited to slagging others?
Before he left for America, Morrison was being praised for walking a careful tightrope in his comments on China. It seems that under the benign influence of the Orange One, he’s now dropped us in the soup.
lizzie
Good pick up. IMO China will deal first with the US and will then give us the treatment. There are some ridiculously easy punishments:
1. Cut Chinese tourist numbers.
2. Cut Chinese students.
“It’s incredible that Labor/Adani supporters on here don’t realise that Thunberg and those like her are actually protesting against them as well as the far-right. YOU are part of the problem.”
OK, Firefly, I’ll bite.
Your drive by pot shot is clearly aimed at the lack of political action which as a Green you lay lay at the feet of Labor.
Let’s start with some basic political science.
In Australia, to achieve a political outcome a Party or Coalition of common cause must win a majority of votes (primary and preferential) in a majority of seats in the Reps and then, simultaneously cobble together a majority of senate votes. At the moment the magic numbers are 76 (77 when one takes out the lack of the Speakers deliberative vote) and 39.
Labor has failed to either:
(1) get the magic number in the senate(2009-10) re the CRPS;
(2) hold onto the voting public at all (2011-13) re the carbon tax and ETS; and
(3) can’t even win back a working set of numbers in either Reps or Senate (2019) on the back of a policy to cut greenhouse emissions by 45% in a decade.
The reasons for that are NOT because Labor has failed to ‘be like Greta’ but because the sentiment of voters in a majority of seats – especially those in the outer rim of our major cities and in rural and regional Australia – are even further away from Greta than the position that Labor has taken to elections in 2013, 2019 and probably 2010 and 2016.
The key voters have rejected Labor – not because of what the Greens say – lack of policy boldness on Climate Change BUT because Labor is perceived to be too close and hostage to YOU: the Greens. Especially on climate change.
Of course, you take no responsibility for the way that these punters have been manipulated against your own cause.
You never ever bother to acknowledge the problem, let alone come up with a practical solution to overcome this problem. Until the centre-left and left plurality finds a way to bring back those voters then Greta can fulminate all she wants. Nothing good will happen in this country.
McDonalds may not be very happy that Morrison chose to inspect one of their ‘smart’ menu boards instead of being at the UN climate conference.
The company caters mostly for younger people and has been making considerable efforts (token or otherwise) to convince people that it is environmentally aware.
https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/corpmcd/scale-for-good/using-our-scale-for-good/un-sustainable-development-goals.html
Truth hurts.
Regarding the 4 corners programme from Monday night, I had a similar experience after my dad died. He had a “prepaid” funeral with a local funeral director and thought everything was tickety boo when he died. So at the funeral we found out the local had been bought out by a larger mob in the regional centre and with his brother a really big player in the funeral industry here in Tassie. Anyhoo, the funeral takes place then a couple of weeks later we get a wacking great bill for $2600.00. Asking the company what the fek what was going on I was informed that what dad and myself thought was a fully paid for funeral was only a “bond” and anything over that was payable. I got my back up as I was actually there when all this was nutted out with the original funeral director. Dad was adamant that what they paid was the end of it. Pop their clogs, carry out the rigamarol, done and dusted. The funeral director agreed that was how it would be. Funeral director departs with the money, happy. Mum n dad thinking everything is sorted likewise happy. Anyway I managed to get all but $850 dollars of the extra charges waived after I agreed to pay the things my siblings authorised that weren’t in the original agreement.
My advice is, if you, a loved one or anyone else you know have a “prepaid” funeral plan, check that you will actually get what you think you or they are paying for.
Firefox
You do realize that the Greens coal policy allows for Australian coal mining, coal-fired power generation and coal exports to continue to at least 2040?
BW: “You do realize that the Greens coal policy allows for Australian coal mining, coal-fired power generation and coal exports to continue to at least 2040?”
You do get a bee in your bonnet about strange things, and just run with them ad-nauseum.
Greens “allowing” for coal mining until 2040 is presumably a recognition that even with the most ambitious renewable goals, a fairly lengthy wind-down and transition phase is unavoidable. Such a recognition is absolutely sensible and should be a no-brainer. Why shouldn’t it be?
Where the Greens stand apart is in unequivocally opposing the initiation of new coal projects, which labor continues to refuse to do. Their shameful stance on Adani (which is not just giving a nod to one project, but to opening up the whole of the Galillee basin) will be a political millstone around their neck for a long time I suspect.
Interrupting my vacuum cleaning program.
What if Ms. Greta Thunberg is an (gasp ❗ ) atheist 😕
She may not support guns for all. She may think killing elephants, giraffes, lions etc for fun and profit etc is unethical and indefensible.
Ha! I bet.
Firefox @ #1644 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 8:40 am
Whatever valid point you might have had there about the QLD state government and coal, it’s been ruined by the incredibly lazy Photoshop job.