Hopes that the Australian polling industry might again have something to offer soon have been been raised by YouGov’s announcement on Thursday that it is overhauling its polling methodology, and pursuing the establishment of a local industry body along the lines of the British Polling Council.
On the first point, the pollster says it will “transition to the standard YouGov methodology for national and statewide polling”. This means an end to the mix of online and automated phone polling associated with Galaxy Research, the established local outfit that has been conducting Newspoll since 2015, and which YouGov bought out at the end of 2017. In line with its modus operandi internationally, YouGov will move entirely to online polling, enabling it to adopt a more detailed scheme of demographic weightings that will encompass variables “such as education and more sophisticated regional segments”.
We may already have received a taste of this with the recent YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted entirely online and supplemented the traditional weighting model of “age interlocked with gender and region” with variables for education and voting at the previous election. This looks much like the pollster’s approach with its British polling, but with education taking the place of a “social grade” variable that holds those with managerial or supervisory jobs distinct from the rest of the workforce.
The notion of an Australian Polling Council offers the exciting prospect of industry standards that will require the publication of sample weightings and full demographic and regional breakdowns from each poll, such as can be seen in this recent YouGov poll of voting intention in Britain. The YouGov announcement says that “several other companies have agreed in principle to establish this council and an announcement will be made in due course”.
Also of note recently:
• The first batch of submissions to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into the recent federal election has been published. This does not include the Labor submission, but The Guardian reports it calls for the committee to investigate the impact on election campaigning of social media platforms, its specific concern being with the widespread circulation of claims through Facebook that it had “secret plans to introduce a death tax”.
• The Australian reports the Nationals federal council has endorsed a proposal floated a fortnight ago to all but purge the Senate of minor parties by breaking each state into six provinces that would each return a single Senator at a normal half-Seante election.
• The challenges to the election results in the Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Kooyong have been referred for trial in the Federal Court, which will likely take about three months to reach a determination.
I may be wrong but I doubt Corbyn is a viable alternative, particularly as Labour’s stand on Brexit is so opaque. A grand caretaker coalition under someone like the Father of the House has been proposed but not much as been done in public to organise this
Cat
It’s bluff.
He used the word mandate. The conservatives always invoke that when parliament votes go against them.
This is the quote i read on the blog i was referring to:
“Jeremy Corbyn stood up a few minutes ago at the Labour conference and demanded that Boris Johnson stand down immediately and hold a general election, as did several other opposition leaders. Which, alert readers may recall, is what Johnson tried to do, twice, barely a fortnight ago, and was blocked by the opposition.”
https://wingsoverscotland.com/lord-pannick-on-the-streets-of-london/
C@t….the Tories have mooted something like Free Trade/Free Movement Deal with Australia.
They can buy our iron ore. We can buy their sausages.
C@t
Verbal diarreah comes to mind. What a bloody charlatan.
OC
It’s Corbyn or no one. Labour is the official opposition due to the numbers.
Johnson wants Brexit on October 31. A short time ago he is quoted as saying:
Guardian
Swamp….BJ could stand down or demand an election…he can’t do them both….
UI @ #1298 Tuesday, September 24th, 2019 – 10:50 pm
Also we can take their people.
frednk @ #1550 Tuesday, September 24th, 2019 – 10:48 pm
Political wins are for those that turn up.
UI
Yes. That was what Corbyn was said to have demanded, i.e stand down OR call an election.
“He used the word mandate. The conservatives always invoke that when parliament votes go against them.”
Only “conservatives” have mandates. They don’t recognise anyone else’s.
Greensborough Growler says:
Tuesday, September 24, 2019 at 10:52 pm
..
Political wins are for those that turn up.
Granted, but Corbyn is not going to get his glorious worker paradise, for that he needs to be PM.
Corbyn is insane if he thinks an election would favour Labour.
Steve777 @ #1562 Tuesday, September 24th, 2019 – 10:55 pm
Show us your numbers.
swamprat,
Here’s another elucidation from the BBC:
The irony is that what the UK Government wants with Australia is what we had before they dumped us to join the Common Market.
We had free trade with the UK and as British Subjects we had free movement between both countries. Our £ was tied to £Stg.
Swamprat
For political impact have a look I like the Evening Standard front page. Johnson with headline. Guilty!
There was a plebiscite in 2011 about whether the House of Commons should legislate ranked-choice voting for general elections. A majority of voters said no.
This wouldn’t be a general election though. It would essentially be a community consultation exercise to help the Parliament decide what to do about an unusual situation. There would be no inconsistency between the 2011 plebiscite outcome about ranked-choice voting for general elections and using ranked-choice voting for this special policy question.
It looks like Johnson’s plan going forward is to break another convention:
UI says:
Tuesday, September 24, 2019 at 10:56 pm
Corbyn is insane if he thinks an election would favour Labour.
Granted, the polls are not that wrong; but Corbyn is starting to lose control of the party, it may be election or lose control and Labour campaigns for remain.
The UK Parliament meets Wednesday 11:00AM UK time.
https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/09/24/lady-hale-supreme-court-spider-brooch-twitter/
frednk @ #1571 Tuesday, September 24th, 2019 – 11:01 pm
You’re discounting the impact of today’s Supreme Court decision. It’s a game changer all round.
Fred….no-one trusts Corbyn on Brexit. He has discredited himself. A majority of those that voted Labour at the last election want him to quit.
He should do just that.
They were conned by him. They will not be tricked again.
guytaur
How do you see the Evening Standard front page on line?
Swamp yes.
Journalists like @markdistefano and @Grogs Gamut have retweeted it.
House of Lords back as well.
GG
I don’t think article 50 will be revoked.
And I don’t think Johnson can legally exit, a requirement to exit.
The fun has really started; at the moment the best show on earth.
BBC legal expert asked what the government can do now?
Reply nothing.
Part of a lengthy statement by Joanna Cherry QC MP (SNP) who won the Court action.
I am delighted that the UK Supreme Court has followed the lead of Scotland’s Supreme Court and ruled that Boris Johnson’s shut down of parliament was unlawful. The effect of the ruling is that Parliament should never have been prorogued in the early hours of the morning of Tuesday 10 September. Therefore, parliament is technically still sitting, it could resume immediately and get on with the job of holding this minority Tory Government to account.
The Scottish constitutional tradition, dating back to the Declaration of Arbroath and the Claim of Right, is that neither the Monarch nor the Government is above the law. This is in line with the modern principles of Constitutional democracy and I am glad that the UK Supreme court agrees.
……………
In the Scottish court, Lord Drummond Young had the perfect riposte to this nonsense (that the Court should not interfere with politics) when he said: “The courts cannot subject the actings of the executive to political scrutiny, but they can and should ensure that the body charged with performing that task, Parliament, is able to do so.”
…………
This whole sorry mess has been a defining moment in the failure of the British state. Scotland deserves better than this and it is now clearer to more and more of our fellow citizens than ever that the only way to protect Scotland’s economic, social and cultural interests and our constitutional tradition is to become an independent state with a written constitution ensuring the sort of checks and balances that will prevent Executive abuse of power.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/17923046.joanna-cherry-defining-moment-failure-british-state/
UI @ #1575 Tuesday, September 24th, 2019 – 9:06 pm
So, your story has changed now from a “majority of Labor members want Corbyn to quit”, to “a majority of people who voted Labor want Corbyn to quit”.
Once again without a single shred of evidence to support your fantasy.
Despite the changed moniker you’re still full of the same old shit. I’m surprised you haven’t blamed the Greens for the Brexit fiasco. Well, not yet anyway.
Hmm. I can feel the spirit, but didn’t the checks and balances just act?
And yet more news from The Department Of No Shit Sherlock:
Scott Morrison ducks questions on Australia’s emissions strategy for 2050
Late Riser
Haha, yes, but if it surprised a lot of people it could not be said to be a secure “law”.
Why would the English High Court dismiss the application of the English MP so cavalierly if it was settled law?
Victoria @ #1530 Tuesday, September 24th, 2019 – 10:32 pm
Having no moral compass Johnson would lack any intrinsic motivation to resign over not being a fit and proper person. More or less exactly like Trump.
DP…the statements I’ve made were drawn from published polls.
You can go look for them.
And…for the little it’s worth, I did not make the first statement attributed by you to me.
I did say the rank and file are remain-supporting…something that can be seen from the motions discussed at the conference.
Johnson doesn’t want an election which he would probably win. Corbyn wants an election which he would probably lose.
What a stuffup.
a r @ #1586 Tuesday, September 24th, 2019 – 11:54 pm
Yes. The only compass is the one that points in the direction of their own self interest. I was jarred by Johnson’s choice of words – that the judicial decision was not *right*, he being the determiner of that.
Morrison is a fair fit, guided by his notorious mentor.
Trump just taken the microphone at the UN as I type. Freedom and democracy and peace reside in love of, and only of, country, and patriotism. Terrifying really. Now he’s rambling about American employment rates on ‘this beautiful planet’.
In the Scottish court, Lord Drummond Young had the perfect riposte to this nonsense (that the Court should not interfere with politics) when he said: “The courts cannot subject the actings of the executive to political scrutiny, but they can and should ensure that the body charged with performing that task, Parliament, is able to do so.”
Amen to that.
…Except when it’s the stacked partisan American Supreme Court.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Matthew Knott outlines the speech Morrison made to the UN yesterday where he joined Trump in lockstep with respect to trade with China.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/donald-trump-and-scott-morrison-in-lockstep-on-need-to-rein-in-china-on-trade-20190925-p52ulm.html
But Eryk Bagshaw and Rob Harris tell us that a high-level Chinese embassy delegation has accused Scott Morrison of showing “the US view through his mouth” as relations between the countries freeze. Ouch!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/china-claims-australia-the-pioneer-of-a-global-anti-china-campaign-20190924-p52ufk.html
And Michelle Grattan reports that Anthony Albanese has attacked Scott Morrison for sending a message to Beijing while in the United States, and also split with him over the economic status of China.
https://theconversation.com/albanese-slams-morrison-for-using-a-loud-hailer-to-talk-to-china-from-us-124097
Chris Uhlmann explains why Morrison should be wary of Trump, the “apex predator”.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/in-the-lair-of-the-apex-predator-why-morrison-should-be-wary-of-trump-20190924-p52ubo.html
Similarly Mark Beeson says that yes, the US-Australia alliance is important, but Scott Morrison needs to take a careful approach with Donald Trump.
https://theconversation.com/yes-the-us-australia-alliance-is-important-but-scott-morrison-needs-to-take-a-careful-approach-with-donald-trump-123973
And David Crowe thinks Morrison is vulnerable on two fronts with his China argument.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-is-vulnerable-on-two-fronts-with-his-china-argument-20190924-p52uhp.html
Matthew Knott on how Morrison visited a Macca’s drive-thru instead of attending the UN session on climate change.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/world-leaders-discussed-climate-the-pm-admired-a-smart-drive-thru-20190924-p52udv.html
The highly touted UN climate summit failed to deliver – and Scott Morrison failed to show up says Matt McDonald.
https://theconversation.com/highly-touted-un-climate-summit-failed-to-deliver-and-scott-morrison-failed-to-show-up-123979
Scott Morrison is increasingly seen as running a “denialist government” that is not serious about finding a global climate solution and uses “greenwash” to meet its emissions commitments, analysts and former diplomats say.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/25/australian-government-seen-globally-as-climate-denialist-un-summit-observers-say
And David Attenborough has criticised the Morrison government’s record on climate policy and support for new coalmines.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/24/david-attenborough-attacks-australian-pm-on-climate-record-and-support-for-coal
Australian shares are poised to tumble 1 per cent at the open, as Wall Street fell on weak consumer data and a fresh attack by Trump on China.
https://outline.com/4JZGUY
Jennifer Hewett reckons we’ve boarded the Trumpmobile.
https://outline.com/DZs28u
Brendan O’Connor will caution his colleagues against scrapping key policies it took to the election, reminding them there was “just a kick” in the May 18 result and a win is “within striking distance”. O’Connor says it would be “foolish” to cave in to the demands of their opponents and wipe the slate clean.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/veteran-labor-figure-warns-against-dumping-policy-platform-says-win-within-striking-distance-20190924-p52ujg.html
The Berejiklian government has accused evacuated Mascot Towers residents of devising a “deliberate strategy” to force the state into paying for critical remediation work on the cracked building reports Alexandra Smith as owners need to start paying special levies of between $5000 and $14,000 a month for the next nine months to ensure the apartment block can be stabilised before summer.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/gut-wrenching-mascot-towers-owners-say-they-face-bankruptcy-20190924-p52uh3.html
Shane Wright explains how families are being forced into the rental market as they are priced out of home ownership[.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/families-flock-to-rental-market-as-they-re-priced-out-of-home-ownership-20190924-p52ucr.html
The CEO of Environment Victoria Jono La Nauze Implores people to watch the UN speech delivered with a mixture of outrage, grief and fury to the UN by Greta Thumberg.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/however-much-you-care-or-don-t-you-should-watch-greta-s-un-speech-20190924-p52uco.html
Greta Thunberg lit into world leaders for their “empty words” around solving the climate crisis and said decades of inaction have left her generation without a future.
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/greta-thunberg-puts-world-leaders-on-notice,13136
In the meantime Trump has mocked the young lady.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6403793/trump-mocks-teen-climate-change-activist/?cs=14232
Amy Remeikis writes that the man nominated by the prime minister to head the latest family court inquiry has refused to condemn Pauline Hanson’s claims that women are routinely lying about domestic abuse to win custody cases, because he wants to stay “impartial”. Andrews impartial? That’d be the day!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/24/kevin-andrews-refuses-to-condemn-hanson-over-lying-women-claim
Dana McCauley writes on how Australians are spending more than ever on self-funded healthcare amid rising out-of-pocket costs for medicines, hospital stays and specialist fees. This is up 17 per cent over the financial year, and quadruple the amount spent a decade earlier.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australians-spend-30-billion-a-year-on-out-of-pocket-health-costs-20190924-p52uc4.html
Shane Wright reports that RBA governor Philip Lowe has signalled further cuts to interest rates as early as next week to keep ahead of tumbling global rates while urging the nation’s businesses to use the abundance of cheap money to expand and hire more staff.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-not-an-interest-rate-island-rba-signals-more-cuts-20190924-p52ui3.html
Dave Donovan imagines what Barnaby Joyce’s SMS reports to Morrison while he was the drought envoy might have been.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/exclusive-barnaby-joyce-drought-envoy-texts-leaked,13138
IOOF may have won its case against APRA in the Federal Court, but its legal woes continue with two class action lawsuits proceeding.
https://outline.com/CC8Lf7
Our second-rate NBN is isolating people everywhere writes Paul Budde.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/second-rate-nbn-isolates-people-everywhere,13135
The internet has outstripped mobile to become the most complained about telecommunications service in Australia, a new report has revealed, yet consumers still lack vital protections writes Isabelle Lane.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2019/09/25/internet-telco-complaints-2019/
The TPG and Vodafone merger is before the courts as the ACCC speculates on the future to oppose it. It’s a curious case where a win for the ACCC could well mean a guaranteed loss if appealed. “Is the ACCC over reaching?” asks Kim Wingerei.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/tpg-vodafone-merger/
Sally Whyte explains how a new report shows that the revolving door between roles in the Australian government and lobbyists for the alcohol, food and gambling industries poses a risk to public health.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6403672/lobbyists-revolving-door-poses-risk-to-public-health-study-says/?cs=14350
The parent company of a debt collector handed $3.3m in taxpayer dollars to pursue welfare recipients over robodebts and other overpayments is being sued by the consumer watchdog for alleged harassment, coercion and unconscionable conduct reports Luke Henriques-Gomes.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/24/robodebt-collectors-parent-company-harassed-consumers-accc-says
He disagrees with the 11 judge Supreme Court unanimous decision but Boris Johnson has vowed to get Brexit done despite ruling he broke the law writes Nick Miller.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/boris-johnson-vows-to-get-brexit-done-despite-ruling-he-broke-the-law-20190925-p52ulu.html
The supreme court could not have been clearer: Johnson’s prorogation of parliament was a subversion of democracy writes Rafael Behr.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/24/boris-johnson-liar-supreme-court-verdict-parliament-prorogation
The UK Supreme Court has propelled Brexit deeper into uncharted waters says the AFR.
https://outline.com/YGLhkb
Brexit could push Australia into a recession we didn’t need to have writes economist Angela Jackson.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/brexit-could-push-australia-into-a-recession-we-didn-t-need-to-have-20190924-p52uce.html
A Fox News guest in the US has said Greta Thunberg is “mentally ill” and the network was forced to apologise.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/a-fox-news-guest-called-greta-thunberg-mentally-ill-the-network-apologised-20190925-p52uln.html
According to reports cited by the AFR Trump is headed towards an impeachment inquiry as Nancy Pelosi’s resistance to a probe ends.
https://outline.com/NpAaXn
It’s time to start impeachment proceedings against Trump says The Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/24/its-time-to-start-impeachment-proceedings-against-trump
Gary Linnell explains how plastics have changed our lives in one generation.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/09/24/plastic-global-waste/
AMP has given its financial advisers a Halloween deadline to accept a deal to leave.
https://outline.com/ZqdFJg
In a continuation of The Age’s special investigation it tells us how the Ballarat diocese exported paedophiles to the world.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/ground-zero-how-the-ballarat-diocese-exported-paedophiles-to-the-world-20190923-p52tvq.html
Australia’s Catholic Church is considering scrapping the centuries-old system of training priests in seminaries, which helped create some of the country’s worst paedophiles.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-catholic-church-rethinks-seminary-training-after-its-child-abuse-scandal-20190924-p52uhv.html
David Crowe reports that social media companies, with the support of 48 countries, will overhaul a counter-terrorism centre to prevent a repeat of the Christchurch terrorist attack.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/google-facebook-back-new-plan-to-stop-violent-terrorism-spreading-online-20190924-p52ugi.html
Here’s today’s candidate for “Arsehole of the Week”.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/doctor-accused-of-raping-patient-at-the-espy-20190923-p52u4y.html
Cartoon Corner
Ugly stuff from David Rowe.
Andrew Dyson with what Johnson might be doing to Australia.
Cathy Wilcox and Greta Thumberg.
Two beauties from Mark David.
A great put down of Morrison from Fiona Katauskas.
David Pope in the US with Morrison.
Zanetti being less than subtle.
Jon Kudelka unveils the Grunberg Generator.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/e3c3da14c8db7a6e6dc525c92d5c3836?width=1024
From the US
The quintessential Brexiteers at the UK Tele get down and dirty
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/24/supreme-court-have-sided-usurping-remainers-people/?WT.mc_id=e_DM1102932&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Loy_Dig_Sol_190924_SuspendUnlaw_Subs&utmsource=email&utm_medium=Loy_Dig_Sol_190924_SuspendUnlaw_Subs20190924&utm_campaign=DM1102932
Global pariah status, here we come! We are officially in the freezer with our major trading partner:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/china-claims-australia-the-pioneer-of-a-global-anti-china-campaign-20190924-p52ufk.html
Vale is back supplying Iron Ore. China can mine its own Coal or buy it elsewhere. There goes the Trade Surplus. The other surplus is built on the back of the Disabled, the Unemployed and Pensioners, so that should be okay. 😐
Liu Frydenberg latest from lawyerly
[Election challenge against Josh Frydenberg, Gladys Liu may need three judges
A challenge against the election of federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and embattled Liberal MP Gladys Liu may be heard by a panel of three judges, Federal Court Chief Justice James Allsop said Tuesday, as the matter speeds towards a possible November hearing.]
Nigel Farage has moved his chess piece away from Boris:
Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage said Johnson must, “as a matter of honour”, offer his resignation to MPs in Parliament on Wednesday.
And Labour are still unwilling to be sucked into an early election, or only one with conditions:
However Labour appears unwilling to use the return to Parliament to stage an official vote of no confidence in the government, which would trigger an election.
Corbyn said the election would take place “as soon as this government’s threat of a disastrous no-deal [Brexit] is taken off the table”, saying Johnson could not be trusted not to use an election campaign as cover to let the country crash out of the European Union on October 31 without a formal Brexit withdrawal deal.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/boris-johnson-vows-to-get-brexit-done-despite-ruling-he-broke-the-law-20190925-p52ulu.html
If the UK abandonment of sitting days in parliament by Boris Johnson was illegal, was the abandonment of sitting days by our Australian parliament also illegal?
At least Corbyn can read the polls.
.
If Barnraby is so bloody lazy, the least he could have done as “Drought Envoy” was to order his $200,000 dollars worth of staff to write a report for him.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/25/barnaby-joyce-spent-less-than-three-weeks-on-the-ground-while-drought-envoy
Edit:
[A spokeswoman for the prime minister’s office said last week that producing a report was never part of the terms of reference surrounding the appointment, saying the role was “focused on getting into communities and talking to farmers in drought”.]
But he didn’t do that, either.