Slicing and dicing

Hope at last that some good might come out of the Australian polling industry’s chastening experience at the May federal election.

Hopes that the Australian polling industry might again have something to offer soon have been been raised by YouGov’s announcement on Thursday that it is overhauling its polling methodology, and pursuing the establishment of a local industry body along the lines of the British Polling Council.

On the first point, the pollster says it will “transition to the standard YouGov methodology for national and statewide polling”. This means an end to the mix of online and automated phone polling associated with Galaxy Research, the established local outfit that has been conducting Newspoll since 2015, and which YouGov bought out at the end of 2017. In line with its modus operandi internationally, YouGov will move entirely to online polling, enabling it to adopt a more detailed scheme of demographic weightings that will encompass variables “such as education and more sophisticated regional segments”.

We may already have received a taste of this with the recent YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted entirely online and supplemented the traditional weighting model of “age interlocked with gender and region” with variables for education and voting at the previous election. This looks much like the pollster’s approach with its British polling, but with education taking the place of a “social grade” variable that holds those with managerial or supervisory jobs distinct from the rest of the workforce.

The notion of an Australian Polling Council offers the exciting prospect of industry standards that will require the publication of sample weightings and full demographic and regional breakdowns from each poll, such as can be seen in this recent YouGov poll of voting intention in Britain. The YouGov announcement says that “several other companies have agreed in principle to establish this council and an announcement will be made in due course”.

Also of note recently:

• The first batch of submissions to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into the recent federal election has been published. This does not include the Labor submission, but The Guardian reports it calls for the committee to investigate the impact on election campaigning of social media platforms, its specific concern being with the widespread circulation of claims through Facebook that it had “secret plans to introduce a death tax”.

• The Australian reports the Nationals federal council has endorsed a proposal floated a fortnight ago to all but purge the Senate of minor parties by breaking each state into six provinces that would each return a single Senator at a normal half-Seante election.

• The challenges to the election results in the Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Kooyong have been referred for trial in the Federal Court, which will likely take about three months to reach a determination.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,017 comments on “Slicing and dicing”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. A bit of a slow Sunday again.

    No politician should believe his or her own propaganda. And no politician should believe Donald Trump’s writes David Crowe.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sugar-and-smiles-can-t-dissolve-the-risks-in-getting-too-close-to-trump-20190921-p52tkk.html
    Where is this going to lead Trump? Nowhere as usual I’d say.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-says-he-had-perfectly-fine-call-with-ukraine-leader-20190922-p52tng.html
    With the assistance of three other economists Greg Jericho wonders what the RBA and the government might do in response to our slowing economy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/21/australias-slowing-economy-how-should-the-government-and-reserve-bank-respond
    Matt Wade thinks working from home could be an easy fix to our cities’ congestion problems.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/the-easy-fix-to-our-cities-congestion-problems-20190920-p52tfk.html
    Jacqui Maley tells us how the schoolkids’ climate change demonstration got under the skin of certain politicians.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-kids-didn-t-stay-in-school-and-the-politicians-lost-their-cool-20190920-p52tcy.html
    As Gladys Liu’s political career becomes undone, the Labor Party has taken action against the robodebt scandal, writes John Wren in his weekly review of politics.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/wrens-week-the-gladys-liu-scandal-deepens-and-robodebt-class-action-begins,13126
    What better example of the use of Facebook to virally promote fake news is there than this?
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/21/climate-strikes-hoax-photo-accusing-australian-protesters-of-leaving-rubbish-behind-goes-viral
    We know would you be! Mike Pezzullo has defended his agency’s refusal to disclose how many warrants have been issued against journalists while revealing he has a small group of trusted journalists he engages with when they are reporting on highly sensitive leaks.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/20/home-affairs-boss-mike-pezzullo-reveals-he-negotiates-with-trusted-reporters-on-sensitive-leaks
    Morrison’s close relationship with Hillsong’s Brian Houston is a bit of a worry. It seems the White House shares that opinion.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-wanted-hillsong-pastor-brian-houston-at-white-house-dinner-report-20190921-p52tk2.html
    Katharine Murphy writes about it too.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/21/morrison-toasts-unconventional-trump-but-hillsong-pastor-reportedly-rejected-from-guest-list
    According to The Bew Daily even as Trump was making guardedly optimistic noises about a US-China trade truce with Scott Morrison by his side, Beijing was upping the ante.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2019/09/21/china-pushes-back-on-us-trade-talks/
    The Liberal Party continues to defend Josh Frydenberg’s citizenship status and accuse Trevor Poulton of anti-Semitism over his brief questioning the Treasurer’s eligibility.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/liberal-party-plays-the-anti-semitic-card-to-save-frydenberg,13128
    The foreign affairs department had no idea Julie Bishop was taking a job with one of Australia’s biggest foreign aid contractors, Palladium, until it was publicly announced reveals Christopher Knaus.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/21/julie-bishops-job-with-palladium-caught-dfat-by-surprise
    Centrelink’s robodebt scandal has been claiming the lives of people struggling with debt, yet our Government remains inactive on the issue, writes Gerry Georgatos.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/robodebt-claims-the-life-of-a-19-year-old-mum,13127
    Israel’s thuggish president is set to begin two days of consultations with political parties after a deadlocked election last week plunged the country into uncertainty over who will lead the next government.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/21/netanyahu-battle-for-survival-after-israel-poll-shock-benny-gantz
    Brexit divisions threaten to plunge today’s Labour party conference into chaos reports the UK Guardian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/21/labour-plunges-into-brexit-chaos
    But even bankers are starting to think Corbyn might be the safe choice now writes Andy Beckett.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/21/bankers-corbyn-tories-no-deal-capitalism-radical-government
    Is Prince Andrew coming into line for nomination for a certain award?
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/20/prince-andrew-abuser-claims-virginia-giuffre-tv-interview

    Cartoon Corner

    Reg Lynch on what Morrison stands for.

    Matt Golding gets to the hub of the climate change debate.

    This was linked by Zanetti of all people!

    Alan Moir has been in good form lately.

    From the US



    https://images.theweek.com/sites/default/files/0_0.jpeg

  2. The madness continues.

    In a statement ahead of Saturday’s program, Morrison said the $150m commitment over five years would see the Australian Space Agency “foster the new ideas and hi-tech skilled jobs that will make Australian businesses a partner of choice to fit out Nasa missions”.

    “The government’s support means Australian businesses and researchers will have the opportunity to showcase their immense knowledge and capabilities in projects that can support Nasa’s Moon to Mars mission, such as Project Artemis and the Lunar Gateway”.
    …
    Asked on Friday in the Oval Office to outline how America and Australia could work together to develop the space program, Donald Trump claimed credit for reviving the sector. “We’re doing a great program,” the president said.

    “We have a tremendous space program. If you look at our facilities, they were virtually closed up. There was crabgrass growing on the runways and now they’re vital.

    “And you know, we’re … going to Mars. We’re stopping at the moon. The moon is actually a launching pad. That’s why we’re stopping at the moon.

    “I said, ‘Hey, we’ve done the moon. That’s not so exciting.’ They said, ‘No, sir. It’s a launching pad for Mars.’ So we’ll be doing the moon. But we’ll really be doing Mars. And we’ll be – we’re making tremendous progress”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/sep/21/scott-morrison-to-unveil-150m-support-for-trumps-mission-to-mars

  3. Trump whistleblower needs to go directly to FBI because Bill Barr can’t be trusted: Ex-FBI director

    Appearing on MSNBC with host Alex Witt, former FBI Assistant Director for Counterintelligence Frank Figliuzzi blew up Donald Trump’s claim that he is the victim of a “Ukraine Witchhunt.”

    He then added that the whistleblower who went to the inspector general with a serious charge against the president should take what he has and go to the FBI within a week if nothing happens.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/09/trump-whistleblower-needs-to-go-directly-to-fbi-because-bill-barr-cant-be-trusted-ex-fbi-director/

  5. Joe Biden Goes Off: Trump Is Extorting Ukraine ‘Because He Knows I’ll Beat Him Like A Drum’

    Former vice president Joe Biden was in full attack mode on Saturday as Donald Trump’s extortion scandal with Ukraine continues to blow up.

    Biden said that Trump knows he will defeat him next November, which is why he’s trying to bribe and bully a foreign leader for dirt. Biden added that the House of Representatives must investigate the president.

    “I know Trump deserves to be investigated. He is violating every basic norm of a president,” the former VP said. “Trump’s doing this because he knows I’ll beat him like a drum and he’s using the abuse of power and every element of the presidency to try to do something to smear me.”

    https://www.politicususa.com/2019/09/21/biden-trump-extorting-ukraine-beat-him-like-a-drum.html

  6. Couple of points to make about this:

    • The Australian reports the Nationals federal council has endorsed a proposal floated a fortnight ago to all but purge the Senate of minor parties by breaking each state into six provinces that would each return a single Senator at a normal half-Seante election.

    1. Aren’t the Nationals a ‘minor party’ who only succeed due to their Coalitioon with the Liberals?

    2. If I were The Nationals’ brains trust (yeah, I know, it’s a bit of an oxymoron), I wouldn’t be so confident that this policy is the winner they obviously think it is.

    They have serious competition from The Shooters Fishers and Farmers, One Nation and their Coalition partners, the Liberals. The Nationals could end up with as little as one Senator per State and Territory.

    Bring it on! 😆

  7. @broomstick33
    ·
    15m
    #abcnews latest from Scott Morrison and his crew of 10 Billionaires partying in Trumpistan .. “Space is about jobs, and we need jobs” .. #auspol

  10. lizzie @ #7 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 7:03 am

    @broomstick33
    ·
    15m
    #abcnews latest from Scott Morrison and his crew of 10 Billionaires partying in Trumpistan .. “Space is about jobs, and we need jobs” .. #auspol

    Scott Morrison doesn’t give a flying fig about the environment. All he cares about is tying workers to their low-paying jobs where they are too afraid to speak out for fear of losing their job and having to go on Newstart, which propels them headlong into poverty.

  12. I predict people are going to get sick to death of being marketed at by Scott Morrison.

    And I also reckon that lashing himself to Trump the way he is will see both of them go down together. Most Australians don’t believe in fully inserting themselves up America’s fundament.

  13. I don’t think it will matter what polling methodology will be adapted, the Australian public has shown to be as untrustworthy as the politicians .

  16. @BelindaJones68
    ·
    7m
    Wow!
    @ScottMorrisonMP on telly doing a presser now.

    Journo asks him about Brian Houston.
    PM calls it ‘gossip’
    Journos repeatedly: Is it true?
    He repeatedly replies ‘it’s gossip’, abt 10x & then ‘I think I’ve answered that question’

    #LiarFromTheShire

  17. Insiders ABCVerified account@InsidersABC
    13m13 minutes ago
    Coming up at 9am on #Insiders, @frankelly08 interviews Energy Minister @AngusTaylorMP
    & @mpbowers talks pictures with @triplejhack political reporter @shalailah.

    On the couch are @theage’s @swrighteconomy, @RNDrive’s @PatsKarvelas & @ANUausi’s @markgkenny. See you soon! #auspol

  18. Heard on the radio this morning that the Saudis have now stated definitely that they believe Iran is behind the drone attacks.

    They will be holding an investigation, and releasing its full results.

    Presumably this investigation will be undertaken by the same people who forensically determined that Jamal Kashoggi died after he slipped on a bar of soap in the Saudi embassy carpark, fell, and hit his head on a ceremonial hatchet inadvertently left in a pot plant by a Turkish gardener (who has now been sacked for carelessness).

  19. Is Morrison serious?

    “Space is about jobs”?

    Jobs where? In science?

    Is this the same man who has gutted the CSIRO, whose coalition partners want the Bureau Of Meteorology investigated, whose government still runs a Windfarm Commission and whose solution to Global Warming is for us all to pray for rain?

  21. Is this the same man who has gutted the CSIRO, whose coalition partners want the Bureau Of Meteorology investigated, whose government still runs a Windfarm Commission and whose solution to Global Warming is for us all to pray for rain?

    He’s also the same man who brought a lump of coal into QT to mock Labor’s policies on reducing GHGEs.

  22. Political parties in the news yesterday:

    Liberal – 115 articles
    Labor – 21 articles
    Other – 19 articles
    National – 16 articles
    LNP – 10 articles
    Greens – 1 articles

    #AusPol
    Powered by NewsAPI

  23. Everything this govt does is about PR, nothing about real action. To any criticism, they say “We have a Plan”.

    Trish Corry @Trish_Corry
    4m
    While people struggle on Newstart, thousands and thousands of homeless, and reports today a mum has gone back to her violent ex because 3 months after leaning Centrelink hasn’t approved parenting payment and our PRIME MINISTER gives Trump 150 million of our money for Mars.

    Ella Buckland

    · 10h
    Heard from a mum today. She has 2 small children. Left abusive ex 3 months ago. Still no parenting payment. She’s moving back in with abusive ex as @Centrelink haven’t approved payment yet. He will beat her. @ScottMorrisonMP

    Michael Pascoe @MichaelPascoe01
    10m
    “We see the government has spent $11.6 million on an advertising campaign but not a cent, not a single cent on a construction project of the $40 million allocated in the 2018 budget.”

  24. The Australian polling industry was shown to be no more reliable than the rest of the world. The solution is adopt the same methodology as the rest of the world?

    I have really good dart board I could sell them.

  25. A former UK Ambassador has some comment on the USA’s real bestest mates.

    “The ruling caste of Saudi Arabia present the most striking example in world history of the extreme combination of avarice and personal cowardice. They are gagging for a war with Iran so long as somebody else fights it for them. Due to a dispute over who ought to have been Caliph 1400 years ago they are absolutely champing at the bit for somebody to massacre the Shia in the Shia heartland, provided they don’t have to do the massacring. It is not that they object to blood on their pure white robes, they often get that when executing a bound prisoner or raping the housemaid. But the thought of their own blood being spilt is an abomination. Let some helpful young Israelis or Americans risk fighting the Iranians, while the Saudi rulers sniff their cocaine in their London penthouses.”

    https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2019/09/beneath-contempt/

  27. This is really, really good news about Jacqui Lambie (from yesterday’s Saturday Paper article by Margaret Simons):

    She has hired as her senior adviser Cameron Amos, who has previously worked for the Greens, for Labor and for the left-leaning think tank The Australia Institute. Amos started working for Lambie shortly before she was forced to resign and now he is back.

    Meanwhile her new media adviser, Anna Bateman, also worked for The Australia Institute as well as for the independent production sector – producing the “live” series of the SBS show Go Back to Where You Came From, on which Lambie appeared.

    Like most political staffers, Amos is reluctant to have the light turned on him. His political pedigree is not the point, he says. He disagrees with some of the votes Lambie takes, and she is no puppet.

    But how Jacqui Lambie thinks and how she makes decisions have become matters of national importance – perhaps even nation-defining, at least until the next election.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2019/09/21/the-lambie-interview-inside-her-power-play/15689880008791


  28. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, September 22, 2019 at 8:01 am

    Political parties in the news yesterday:

    Liberal – 115 articles
    Labor – 21 articles
    Other – 19 articles
    National – 16 articles
    LNP – 10 articles
    Greens – 1 articles

    #AusPol
    Powered by NewsAPI

    Thanks to the efforts of many the Liberals are in power, so the 115 is fair enough. The Greens are only interested in damaging labor so their measure is how many of the 21 were critical of labor, and even more so, how many because of Greens stunts.

  29. William Bowe says:
    Friday, September 20, 2019 at 5:01 pm

    …”The reason the blog is in a poor state right now is overwhelmingly because it’s not possible to make even the mildest criticism of Labor without being descended upon by a pack of empty-headed shit-flinging monkeys”…

    It has ‘ever been thus.

  30. Angus Taylor should wear a cap for his interview on Insiders (nothing like full frontal messaging for free to the viewers). It should say, ‘How good is power!’

  31. The story could well get further legs, esp if it is found that Trump tried to use military aid to Ukraine as leverage.

    Until now, there was room for reasonable disagreement over impeachment as both a matter of politics and a matter of tactics. The Mueller report revealed despicably unpatriotic behavior by Trump and his minions, but it did not trigger a political judgment with a majority of Americans that it warranted impeachment. The Democrats, for their part, remained unwilling to risk their new majority in Congress on a move destined to fail in a Republican-controlled Senate.

    Now, however, we face an entirely new situation. In a call to the new president of Ukraine, Trump reportedly attempted to pressure the leader of a sovereign state into conducting an investigation—a witch hunt, one might call it—of a U.S. citizen, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his son Hunter Biden.

    As the Ukrainian Interior Ministry official Anton Gerashchenko told the Daily Beast when asked about the president’s apparent requests, “Clearly, Trump is now looking for kompromat to discredit his opponent Biden, to take revenge for his friend Paul Manafort, who is serving seven years in prison.”

    Clearly.

    If this in itself is not impeachable, then the concept has no meaning. Trump’s grubby commandeering of the presidency’s fearsome and nearly uncheckable powers in foreign policy for his own ends is a gross abuse of power and an affront both to our constitutional order and to the integrity of our elections.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/trumps-ukraine-call-clear-impeachable-offense/598570/

    Nichols also describes Giuliani as Trump’s “bizarre homunculus”. I had to Google homunculus, but it’s the most apt description for Giuliani.

  32. ‘It has ‘ever been thus.’

    Which means that William has identified the wrong problem.

    The decline in commentary started before the election and it was actively encouraged by the moderator.

  33. By diligent repetition, the Coalition have persuaded voters that doing anything about climate change will mean higher energy prices. This is bolstered by low wages growth and a heavy-handed bureaucracy that maintains fear for our financial future, while privatised services are ripping us off. How good is that!

  34. zoomster says:
    Sunday, September 22, 2019 at 8:22 am

    …”Which means that William has identified the wrong problem.

    The decline in commentary started before the election and it was actively encouraged by the moderator”…

    Things are demonstrably worse now, which I believe was his point.

    And in my not so humble opinion, you are yourself, one of the most persistent, long term offenders.

  35. Not Sure says:
    Sunday, September 22, 2019 at 8:17 am


    William Bowe says:
    Friday, September 20, 2019 at 5:01 pm

    …”The reason the blog is in a poor state right now is overwhelmingly because it’s not possible to make even the mildest criticism of Labor without being descended upon by a pack of empty-headed shit-flinging monkeys”…

    It has ‘ever been thus.

    The question is; what is to be done about the Greens continual attacks on Labor for moving forward with “practical action on climate change”. The issue is too serious.

    For example we have this in the age:

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/climate-plan-to-force-melbourne-s-seaside-kinder-from-its-bayside-home-20190920-p52tf8.html

    Labor will have to take the brunt of the attack for getting things in order for what is to come, the Liberals will claim it is not happening, and the Greens will no doubt remain silent on this issue, while planning another anti labor stunt.

  38. zoomster @ #32 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 8:22 am

    ‘It has ‘ever been thus.’

    Which means that William has identified the wrong problem.

    The decline in commentary started before the election and it was actively encouraged by the moderator.

    It’s a different type of commentary now with a greater critique of Labor policy.

    As a result there’s been an increase of vitriolic pushback from the dominant Labor presence here.

    The lack of polling since the election hasn’t helped.

  42. This is the concern I have re Warren. From the NY Times daily email the other day.

    As Warren has risen to the top of the presidential primary field, her North Shore struggles underscore the biggest question about her campaign: If she were the nominee, could she win back working-class voters who swung to Donald Trump in 2016?

    There are real reasons for concern. In her 2012 and 2018 Senate races, Warren struggled in other blue-collar parts of Massachusetts, like the South Shore and towns around Worcester. And in most state polls asking voters to choose between Trump and potential Democratic nominees, Warren looks considerably weaker than Joe Biden.

    She is tied with Trump in Wisconsin, while Biden leads by nine percentage points, according to a recent Marquette University poll. In New Hampshire — which borders parts of the North Shore — Biden leads Trump by 10 points, while Warren trails by two, according to an Emerson College poll.

    “For Democrats to feel fully confident about nominating Ms. Warren as their standard-bearer, she needs to figure out this puzzle,” Paul Starobin, a journalist based in Orleans, Mass., another town where she has underperformed, writes in The Times. After interviewing voters, Starobin considers several possible explanations, including Warren’s gender, her policy proposals, her background as a Harvard professor and her former self-identification as Native American.

  44. Joel Fitzgibbon had a good conversation with Speers just now on Sky.

    Discussion re drought and policy shifts needed in regional Australia and Barnabys uselessness, but sadly at the end of the interview came unstuck when challenged on Labors climate policy going forward.

  45. lizzie @ #40 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 8:33 am

    Fess

    I really don’t know what the answer is. Clive spent millions, but more money and stunts surely isn’t the right way.

    So why do ALL the Right Wing politicians do them in election campaigns!?! Boris, ScoMao, Trump. You’d think it would be beneath their dignity but debase themselves in front of the voters they do. Why? Because it works.

  46. lizzie:

    I genuinely believe Australians wanted to toss this government, but were scared off by Labor’s proposed policy changes (better the devil you know, and all that).

  48. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, September 22, 2019 at 8:32 am
    ….
    It’s a different type of commentary now with a greater critique of Labor policy.

    At a time when Labor lost the election, making their policies pretty irrelevant. An election lost against the actions of many, including several minor parties devoting themselves to the same cause as all the other minor parties, defeating Labor.

    Ok they won, result, the Liberal and all they represent are in power.

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