Slicing and dicing

Hope at last that some good might come out of the Australian polling industry’s chastening experience at the May federal election.

Hopes that the Australian polling industry might again have something to offer soon have been been raised by YouGov’s announcement on Thursday that it is overhauling its polling methodology, and pursuing the establishment of a local industry body along the lines of the British Polling Council.

On the first point, the pollster says it will “transition to the standard YouGov methodology for national and statewide polling”. This means an end to the mix of online and automated phone polling associated with Galaxy Research, the established local outfit that has been conducting Newspoll since 2015, and which YouGov bought out at the end of 2017. In line with its modus operandi internationally, YouGov will move entirely to online polling, enabling it to adopt a more detailed scheme of demographic weightings that will encompass variables “such as education and more sophisticated regional segments”.

We may already have received a taste of this with the recent YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted entirely online and supplemented the traditional weighting model of “age interlocked with gender and region” with variables for education and voting at the previous election. This looks much like the pollster’s approach with its British polling, but with education taking the place of a “social grade” variable that holds those with managerial or supervisory jobs distinct from the rest of the workforce.

The notion of an Australian Polling Council offers the exciting prospect of industry standards that will require the publication of sample weightings and full demographic and regional breakdowns from each poll, such as can be seen in this recent YouGov poll of voting intention in Britain. The YouGov announcement says that “several other companies have agreed in principle to establish this council and an announcement will be made in due course”.

Also of note recently:

• The first batch of submissions to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into the recent federal election has been published. This does not include the Labor submission, but The Guardian reports it calls for the committee to investigate the impact on election campaigning of social media platforms, its specific concern being with the widespread circulation of claims through Facebook that it had “secret plans to introduce a death tax”.

The Australian reports the Nationals federal council has endorsed a proposal floated a fortnight ago to all but purge the Senate of minor parties by breaking each state into six provinces that would each return a single Senator at a normal half-Seante election.

• The challenges to the election results in the Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Kooyong have been referred for trial in the Federal Court, which will likely take about three months to reach a determination.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,017 comments on “Slicing and dicing”

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  1. Big A,

    Your justification is not logical as it assumes that existing coal mines will meet the demand out to 2040.

    Some will go out of production in this time, so new sources will be needed to replace them in the interim.

  2. Graeme Orr
    @Graeme_Orr
    ·
    1h
    Amused at idea a ‘written constitution’ solves these great impasses. It’d have to be a very thick one.
    Australia has a written constitution but our High Court would face same dilemma if Parliament were prorogued for undue, sensitive time.

  3. The Cathy Wilcox
    @cathywilcox1
    ·
    5m
    Who knew? there’s a Minister for Better Regulation in the NSW govt. wonder if there’s a minister for Just Do Your Frickin’ Job.

  4. “Hehehe yep you got me there”

    That poor photoshop is a good metaphor for your grasp with historical truths when it comes to the ALP.

  5. A Green thinks it’s clever to substitute the QLD Labor Premier for Trump. The Green also imagines that their political strategy might bring Labor ‘closer’ to the Greens. The Green is an absolute fucking imbecile.

    There are many reasons why action on climate change has been difficult to achieve. Lib intransigence is one. Green stupidity is another.

  6. A New South Wales farm trespass bill has been criticised by civil liberties organisations, environment groups and unions for turning into “a crackdown on people’s rights to protest”.

    The Right to Farm Bill 2019, currently before the NSW parliament, can punish unlawful entry and disruption on “inclosed lands” with up to three years in jail, and increases the fine from $5,500 to $22,000.

    The bill is aimed at stopping animal rights protests on farms, but a range of groups and MPs say the wording would outlaw civil protest on any enclosed space, including schools, hospitals, mine sites or banks.

    Chris Gambian, the chief executive of the Nature Conservation Council of NSW, said the threat to protest was “hidden within this bill”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/25/nsw-farm-trespass-bill-criticised-for-turning-into-a-crackdown-on-the-right-to-protest

  7. ‘Big A Adrian says:
    Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 8:46 am

    BW: “You do realize that the Greens coal policy allows for Australian coal mining, coal-fired power generation and coal exports to continue to at least 2040?”

    You do get a bee in your bonnet about strange things, and just run with them ad-nauseum.

    Greens “allowing” for coal mining until 2040 is presumably a recognition that even with the most ambitious renewable goals, a fairly lengthy wind-down and transition phase is unavoidable. Such a recognition is absolutely sensible and should be a no-brainer. Why shouldn’t it be? ‘

    The Greens policies actually allow for the possibility for coal mining, coal generation and coal exports to go beyond 2040.

    So, the Greens policies do not meet the Thunberg threshold. The Greens policies allow for coal mining, coal fired power generation and coal exports to continue until Greta is at least 37 years old.

    The Greens have systematically driven the regional vote into the open arms of the Coalition which holds 27 out of 34 regional seats in the big states. Three are held by Coalition-leaning Indies. Which leaves Labor clinging to just four regional seats. In one such, Fitzgibbon’s seat, it went backwards at a great rate of knots in the last election.

    That leaves the Coalition needing just 46 of the remaining 116 seats to hold power.

    I am not sure where or how you think all that might be resolved.

  8. Adam Schiff
    @RepAdamSchiff
    ·
    4h
    We have been informed by the whistleblower’s counsel that their client would like to speak to our committee and has requested guidance from the Acting DNI as to how to do so.

    We‘re in touch with counsel and look forward to the whistleblower’s testimony as soon as this week.

  9. Eric Garland
    @ericgarland
    ·
    1h
    Yes, please release Joe Biden’s effort to get Ukraine into NATO to oppose Putin. That would be swell.
    Quote Tweet

    Kimberley Johnson
    @AuthorKimberley
    · 1h
    Giuliani just told Fox that they will be releasing evidence against Hunter and Joe Biden tomorrow.

    Get ready for crazy like you’ve never seen. Russians will be helping because Putin wants to keep his Useful Idiot

  10. Firefox refers to Greens electioneering statements made by Di Natale. Phshaw!

    But here is the official Greens policy statement on coal mining, coal-fired power generation and coal exports. There is no mention of a date in this official, current, policy statement. The ONLY time-limited statement is in another official policy statement. This policy statement refers to zero NET emissions by 2040.

    The obvious conclusion is that coal mining, coal-fired power generation and coal exports may continue to AT LEAST 2040 and, with offsets, may continue thereafter.

    https://greens.org.au/policies/natural-resources-forests-and-mining

  11. Yep, just like I thought lol. Not doing this again hey, Boerwar. I’ve provided you with the actual policy which specifically states the year 2030. Not my problem if you can’t deal with the facts.

  12. The Greens have policy that will never amount to more than a hill of beans. Labor have actions and aimed to get into power so they could do more.

    It is a pity the Greens think their hill of beans is more important than actual action on climate change.

  13. Two White House officials downplayed expectations for any bombshells in the release of the call transcript detailing President Trump’s conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

    Both officials said the transcript is expected to be “underwhelming.”

    Not that the source is remotely trustworthy on the subject, but this hardly inspires confidence that the Democrats have moved correctly here. Impeaching on the Mueller report would likely be less fraught.

  14. Until Greta gave her speech at the UN, all the pics of her were calm, unemotional, but now she has revealed her anger at the world, the RWNJs and their media supporters only publish the ugliest expressions they can find. And they accuse the rest of us of “abusing a child”?

  15. Impeaching on the Mueller report would likely be less fraught.

    Impeachment is dumb. Especially at this stage of the election cycle. Sure, they want to start one to be able to dig up more dirt that is blocked from them. Sure, they want to keep power to account – noone above the law yadda yadda. But it wont help. The kickback far outweighs the benefits.

  16. Barney: “Big A,
    Your justification is not logical as it assumes that existing coal mines will meet the demand out to 2040.
    Some will go out of production in this time, so new sources will be needed to replace them in the interim.”

    ———–

    Firstly, turns out that its 2030, not 2040, which is a mere 10 years away. You shouldn’t need to open up new coal mines to keep to that timetable.

    Also the Greens state this specifically:

    “An immediate ban on new coal mines, fracking and conventional onshore and offshore gas and oil fields, such as Adani’s proposed Carmichael mine in the Galilee Basin, is needed to keep our resources in the ground and stop millions of tonnes of pollution being locked in for decades to come. This nation-wide ban will protect our our prime agricultural farmland, secure those pristine natural places and save those sanctuaries in our oceans from destructive mining and drilling, like what energy multinationals have planned in the Great Australian Bight.”

    – as well as becoming 100% renewable domestically by 2030, all coal exports are to cease completely by 2030 also:

    “The Renew Australia plan delivers on a target for 100 per cent renewable electricity by 2030, with a proactive transition away from coal fired generation. ”

    and…

    “The Greens plan will phase out thermal coal by setting a yearly limit on coal exports from 2020 reducing each year until a full-phase out in 2030”

    (source: https://greens.org.au/sites/default/files/2019-04/Greens%202019%20Policy%20Platform%20-%20Renew%20Australia%20%28April%202019%29.pdf)

    So its there in black and white – an immediate ban on new coal mines, no coal exports after 2030, and no coal-based electricity after 2030.

    The labor position on the other hand ranges from “erm, um… don’t ask me about it – let the market decide” to “Adani – hell yeah!! – ” (QLD labor)

  17. I have had to do quite a few edits of my posts in the last coupla days, as I am being distracted by the activities of my new puppy. For anyone interested, it’s a 5 month-old Blenheim Cavalier called Rowley. 🙂

  18. Victoria

    Although I love large dogs best, I decided to be ‘sensible’ and get a small one suitable for my age and infirmity (!), but not one of the so-popular designer dogs (so-called). They often carry the genetic faults from both sides of their lines. And of course I abhor the puppy farms that churn them out.

  19. @StrayMutts
    ·
    1h
    I have an empty dam down the back of my property and it’s been dry for over five years.

    Can somebody tell Morrison that until you add water, it’s just another hole in the ground?

    It’s complicated science, I know, but I’m fucking done filling it with thoughts and prayers.

  20. “Until Greta gave her speech at the UN, all the pics of her were calm, unemotional, but now she has revealed her anger at the world, the RWNJs and their media supporters only publish the ugliest expressions they can find. And they accuse the rest of us of “abusing a child”?”

    Damn fine speech that. The criticism of her as “mentally ill” and of “being abused” ? Says a LOT more about the people making those statements than it does about Greta and none of it good. The likes of Kenny, Devine and Bolt should be deeply ashamed of their behavior. Actually, i thought it was great for her to let loose the passion thing in that speech. She spoke well and, really, people with Aspergers are ALLOWED to be passionate about things without RWNuttjobbies like Trump and co hamfistedly taking the piss.

  21. Big A,

    Well at least in the second half of that paragraph they get to the legitimate concerns around any mining operation. Pity they conflate the issue with the first half.

  22. ‘Aims — Mining and Mineral Exploration, including Coal Seam Gas

    The Australian Greens want:

    A robust economy built on diverse sectors and not reliant on any one sector for its prosperity.
    A mining and mineral exploration sector that meets stringent environmental and social protection standards and delivers both long and short term benefits to the wider Australian community.
    A requirement that all mining activity be subject to rights, desires and needs of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.
    Legislation that recognises that mining is incompatible with all other land uses and therefore needs to be evaluated based on comprehensive natural resource mapping and strategic planning and rigorous independent environmental and social impact assessment, before being approved.
    Accurate and independent environmental, health and social impact assessments addressing the true environmental, social and economic costs and benefits, rigorously applied and implemented on all mining proposals and projects.
    Rigorous independent ongoing monitoring and compliance with undertakings and legal obligations of all mining projects including during the rehabilitation phase.
    The prohibition of mineral exploration and mining including the extraction of petroleum and gas, in residential areas, good quality agricultural land and terrestrial and marine nature conservation reserves, national parks, wilderness areas and other areas of high nature conservation value.
    A ban on new thermal coal mines or thermal coal mine expansions and an orderly, planned phase out of thermal coal exports with a just transition for affected communities.
    No new fracking or unconventional gas, including coal seam, shale or tight gas, shale oil or underground coal gasification developments, given the short and long-term risks to our water, land, communities, the climate, food production and marine areas.
    The Australian Government to invest in and support the research and development of technological alternatives to metallurgical coal.
    The cessation of all existing underground coal gasification projects.
    A planned, orderly, phase-out of existing fracking and unconventional gas developments including coal seam gas, shale and tight gas due to the short and long-term risks to our water, land, communities, the climate, food production and marine areas.
    To give landholders, including traditional owners, the right to say “no” to mining and resources companies seeking to explore or mine on their land and strengthen rights for landholders regarding access, negotiation, appeal and compensation rights in all their dealings with mining and resources companies.
    Mining rehabilitation bonds that are based on high-quality evidence, set at the full cost of rehabilitation and verified by open and transparent means.
    Prohibition on the exploration for, and mining and export of, uranium.’

    This is from the official Greens site. If anyone can spot a date then good luck to them.

  23. A few thoughts on the Trump impeachment

    1. The Democrats have determined that 2020 will be a referendum on Trump – so that the ratcheting of of constant dirt dumping on him will motivate the 58% who don’t approve to turn out and vote

    2. Trump and his band of election winning smarties want to expose Biden to as much dirt as possible. Is there anything there? Was there anything with Hilary’s email server or pizza shop paedo ring? It doesn’t matter – the machine will start smearing the dirt to motivate the 58% who don’t approve of Trump to stay at home in November 2020

  24. BW: “The ONLY time-limited statement is in another official policy statement. This policy statement refers to zero NET emissions by 2040.”

    What is crystal clear in the official ‘policy platform’ that I linked to, is unambiguous policy to a) stop all coal exports by 2030 and b) our electricity supply to be 100% renewable by 2030. Its there in black and white.

    You are clutching at straws by pointing to a goal of “zero net emissions by 2040” – as necessarily meaning a continuation of coal mining until that year. This directly contradicts with their clear unambiguous policy of being 100% renewable electricity (ie no coal) by 2030. So either the Greens are directly contradicting themselves, or more likely, ‘zero net emissions’ is referring to emissions other than coal – like you know, oil/petrol and probably a myriad other sources that bellow out carbon dioxide.

  25. The historical truth of the ALP is that it has undermined labour standards, public services, and livelihoods – yet it feels entitled to government purely by dint of being less awful than Liberals.

    That attitude has to change if Australians are to have any hope of a better society and a liveable planet.

    Voters don’t have great options at the moment. The Greens present a robust argument for a much more equal distribution of power and resources and for well-resourced public goods. However, in important ways the Greens are still down with neoliberal economics that puts unnecessary fetters on policy discretion.

    Labour lacks a coherent agenda and spends most of its time in a defensive crouch.

  26. Victoria @ #633 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 10:09 am

    Lizzie

    A big welcome to Rowley

    Et moi aussie ❗

    I always blame errors in my post on Brown Bear or perhaps Muriel although Brown Bear now has a girlfriend I can blame.

    Beautiful dogs.

    What kind of dog does the future King Charles barrack for ❓

    Dammit I just had a look at the picture and I swear (a lot) that its lips moved. Not a lie (from either of us).
    Rough translation. Tell me I’m just the prettiest and hungriest dog you have ever seen. and Did you know that cookies are good for dogs ❓

  27. “This is from the official Greens site. If anyone can spot a date then good luck to them.”

    Ah yes, and of course thats literally the only document on the subject from the Greens right?

    (hint: it isn’t – c.f. the detailed policy document I linked – clearly setting an end date of 2030 for all coal activity in Australia)

  28. You need to have very strong grounds before commencing impeachment proceedings otherwise it will blow up in your face.

    You also need to have a reasonable chance of winning. Otherwise people will rightly ask ‘why are you doing it’? I dont necessarily agree with this view, but people will say that the Democrats are using institutions to smear Trump in an election year for political gain. And it is an accusation that will resonate with independents and Trump partisans. It will guarantee a full turnout of his base.

  29. I’m actually pretty amazed The Saturday Paper is still going. They even still print physical copies. Though not for much longer I’d guess.

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