Essential Research leadership ratings

The latest Essential poll finds Scott Morrison’s approval rating edging up to a new high, with most respondents supporting a tough line on offshore detention of asylum seekers – but not so tough that they support the repeal of medical evacuation laws.

Another fortnight, another Essential Research poll that baulks on publishing voting intention numbers. We do, however, get the monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison at a new peak of 49% approval, up one on a fortnight ago, with disapproval down one to 36%. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 36% and up two on disapproval to 31%. Morrison also records the strongest preferred prime minister lead out of the four such results published by Essential since the election, at 46-25, out from 44-28 last month.

The poll also finds strong support for indefinite offshore detention for asylum seekers, with 52% supportive and 32% opposed. However, only 21% accept the government’s position that the medical evacuation legislation “will weaken our borders and result in boats arriving in Australia as they have in the past”, with 41% saying it strikes an appropriate balance and 23% saying it does not go far enough.

A series of questions on Friday’s climate strikes finds 56% in favour and 30% opposed, although only 35% said they were aware of them in response to an initial question, with 54% saying they were unaware. The New South Wales-based respondents to the survey, of which there were 352, were asked a further question on a mooted relaxation of the state’s lockout laws, which 58% supported and 30% opposed.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from an online panel of 1093 respondents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,606 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings”

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  1. Ch 10 news at 5pm opened with a sympathetic story on the massive climate rallies, with crowds compared to the Vietnam war rallies. At the end was McCormack in hi-vis (at some mine site?) with his usual view of the world.

    About 10 minutes later was Morrison’s trip to Trumpland with a barely sympathetic commentary by PvO. It started with Morrison happy to be in the “land of the three” and video of the dining table being prepared for trump, Morrison and the usual suspects. Quite a contrast with the climate rallies story.

    There seems to be a growing sentiment within the community, both in Australia and the US, of the urgency to take action on global warming and this provides an opportunity for Labor and the Democrats to take a more assertive stand on promoting responsible measures and thereby provide a stark contrast with the increasingly extremist views of the Liberal/National and Republican parties.

  2. William Bowe @ #1152 Friday, September 20th, 2019 – 5:45 pm

    Well seriously, how can a group of people say they support real action on climate change when they attach themselves to a party so addicted to coal related donations …?

    By pointing to the fact that they attend rallies and advocate for an activist position on climate change within one of the two political parties best placed to give effect to such a thing.

    A legitimate policy on phasing out coal has more substance than a convenient photo op aimed to a crumbling base.

  3. Rex, you’re calling them liars for having a perspective on this issue that differs from your own, without regard to the very considerable potential that exists for a person to disagree with you for quite honourable reasons, such as being a lot smarter than you are. Most of all though, you’re engaging in weak and lazy cheap shots purely in order to piss people off, which is every bit as much to the detriment of the blog as what caused me to remonstrate with C@t earlier.

  4. @AustralianLabor this is your opportunity along with the @Greens to distinguish yourself from this miserable simulacrum of a government. You must nail your colours to the mast & offer real, substantial, effective change. Or you can kiss goodbye to a generation of voters.

    I said much the same thing at 5.47pm but without the insinuation that Labor needed to tag along behind the Greens.

  5. Well, Channel 7 is going negative on the Climate Change rally. Calling the organisers, ‘student activists’ who ‘disrupted’ the city and that the students ‘skipped school’

  6. William Bowe @ #1155 Friday, September 20th, 2019 – 5:57 pm

    Rex, you’re calling them liars for having a perspective on this issue that differs from your own, without regard to the very considerable potential that exists for a person to disagree with you for quite honourable reasons, such as being a lot smarter than you are.

    Who knows what their perspective is given the signs they hold up and the positions on coal their party promotes. They can’t have it both ways. That’s the point.

  8. Rex it comes down to what a party believes is possible given all the circumstances including overall community views. You are certainly limited in what you can do from opposition. Labor are at least shifting community sentiment by taking a balance position given community views.

  9. Mundo:

    [‘Courier Mail, Daily Telegraph…..there’s a difference?’]

    Believe or not, I think there is…

    I find, for instance, that Denis Atkins is quite balanced, whereas Miranda, Janet generally tow the Murdoch line.

  10. Davidwh @ #1160 Friday, September 20th, 2019 – 6:15 pm

    Rex it comes down to what a party believes is possible given all the circumstances including overall community views. You are certainly limited in what you can do from opposition. Labor are at least shifting community sentiment by taking a balance position given community views.

    Instead of painfully straddling the fence and bleeding out on coal perhaps they might accept the science, disassociate from certain donors and engage someone with the required talent to win over the majority of the wider community.

  11. Just the other day, the ACT Labor government announced it would “phase out natural gas, electrify its bus fleets and public school buildings, and introduce incentives for drivers who buy electric cars”. Apparently, the ACT is “due to achieve its target of 100% renewable-generated electricity on 1 October”. Perhaps Rex is right though, and Labor in the ACT should abandon any effort to promote itself to environmentally concerned voters. That way he can start dumping shit on them for not knowing how to win an election after they get voted out next year.

  12. Perhaps we should be celebrating the overwhelming success of these rallies and the positive forces that they represent, rather than adopting the usual predictable positions.

  13. adrian @ #1164 Friday, September 20th, 2019 – 6:27 pm

    Perhaps we should be celebrating the overwhelming success of these rallies and the positive forces that they represent, rather than adopting the usual predictable positions.

    Fantastic turnouts in Australia. There is hope.

    The #ClimateStrike crowd numbers are phenomenal. Melbourne 100,000+Sydney 80,000+Brisbane 30,000Hobart 20,000Canberra 15,000Perth & Adelaide at least 10,000 eachThousands more across regional Australia & Pacific https://t.co/rViiPMOgWR @strikeclimate #schoolstrike4climate pic.twitter.com/VAOKRHq7Zu— Guardian Australia (@GuardianAus) September 20, 2019

  15. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, September 20, 2019 at 6:02 pm
    Well, Channel 7 is going negative on the Climate Change rally. Calling the organisers, ‘student activists’ who ‘disrupted’ the city and that the students ‘skipped school’

    Ch 7 is clearly in the RW camp under Kerry Stokes. It seems to aim for the older, minimal thinking demographic and presumably has minimal younger viewers who are aware of the important issues facing us today.

  20. citizen @ #1167 Friday, September 20th, 2019 – 6:34 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Friday, September 20, 2019 at 6:02 pm
    Well, Channel 7 is going negative on the Climate Change rally. Calling the organisers, ‘student activists’ who ‘disrupted’ the city and that the students ‘skipped school’

    Ch 7 is clearly in the RW camp under Kerry Stokes. It seems to aim for the older, minimal thinking demographic and presumably has minimal younger viewers who are aware of the important issues facing us today.

    I love to see the ratings difference in age demographic between their 6pm news and Home and Away 😆

  21. 7 can make up whatever shit they like. The rally in Sydney today was huge and a lot of people there were not high school students.

  25. [‘Morrison’s got excellent political instincts and a keen sense for what is good for Australia and, much more importantly in this context, what is not.’]

    When the electorate gets to know this relatively young man, they’ll turn off him, principally for his insincerity, his craftily designed slick image. When one considers even Menzies, not to mention Gough, there presents a huge gap in credibility. The problem is, though, I’m unsure whether Albanese has the goods – we’ll see in due course but he should hurry up.

  26. I attended the Albany climate rally today. Hundreds of people marched up the main street and amassed in the Town Square. I’ve never seen such a large turnout of people for something like this before here. There were hundreds of people who attended, the march itself stopped traffic for a good 15 minutes.

    The students who addressed the crowd were passionate and articulate. I was impressed with the mix of ages too. And people driving by all tooted their horns in support.

  28. If Hobart and Canberra numbers really did exceed Perth and Adelaide that’s a solid effort from the two smaller cities.

    Surely Perth did considerably better than 10,000 though?

  29. The alternative explanation is that Trump is using Morrison to give the finger to world leaders who have the backbone to challenge him.

    Why Scott Morrison’s dinner with Donald Trump is a diplomatic victory

    The Prime Minister’s state dinner invitation shows how isolated the US President has become from traditional US allies – and how well Australia has fared by comparison.
    by Matthew Knott

  33. I attended the Sydney rally today and can vouch for elderly people with walking sticks to mum’s pushing prams. There were the usual coloured hair / nose ring few but also well-heeled conservatively dressed women and a sprinkling of men in suits who looked as though they had ducked in to support their kids during their lunch hours.
    Really lifted my spirits.

  34. From my very limited interactions with William outside the blog, the biggest thing I have learnt is how important it is to him that the standard of comments is good, as in informed, interesting and intelligent. He takes it personally when there are a run of dickhead comments.
    We all feel the pain of a dismal thread but he feels it more keenly than we do.

  35. Surely Perth did considerably better than 10,000 though?

    I can’t find any reporting on the Perth rally. Our local ABC here was at our event, as was GWN and the local newspapers, all of whom (except GWN) have posted videos and photos on their social media pages.

  42. Quasar,
    Fantastic contribution today! It’s important that the kids know they are not walking alone and that Australians our age care as much as they do.

  45. The report on SBS news (from the British State Broadcaster, i assume) on David Cameron’s revealing the Queen’s deliberate intervention into politics during the 2014 Independence Referendum is all about his breach of protocol.

    The far more important issue (downplayed by the BBC) is the Queen’s breach of the famously “unwritten” constitution forbidding the Monarch political partiality. Although everyone knows she’s a Tory.

    This issue is getting lots of attention in Scottish independence blogs.

  47. Quasar:

    [‘I attended the Sydney rally today and can vouch for elderly people with walking sticks to mum’s pushing prams.’]

    Good on them, though due to my youthfulness, I very much doubt I’ll ever be affected. That’s the problem as I see it. Essentially it can be reduced to that, I think?

  49. I’ve found some photos from the Perth march on ABC Perth Facebook page:
    https://www.facebook.com/abcperth/posts/2720939741272302?__xts__%5B0%5D=68.ARCb5S1no77j7Po0RcDlIDBCz52HJUdEldCbRdVtfeuJvLPbwVpx4-QUu4a9O7qqAM1V_trYrewuHBeVdgdsnj48SMjaymAbMk4gdbpQGWc9VVkU92-zfaQkmGGmhNDEWmI2no7hsEdWa3z_bch02oFzvPAvD_sMNlBKH5iSGYpP71OoJlhDtq3rW1XjRCZPVJbBswf9xzUnnFPLK1v4L_QNn_ffSeFMx_-3ErvEWcGvSoYO23_jvEawNeC1PsRSPAaHZExXLafRxQyDzPXuRJJ7O3cwS8NhHMVz7t7vTVC07v4gVO0SUKtv1c2Cucppx3xpQNv2k_LDMbWNU0YKMsLtUw&__tn__=-R

    Of course many of the comments don’t bear reading, the usual anti-science drivel from the naysayers.

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