Essential Research leadership ratings

The latest Essential poll finds Scott Morrison’s approval rating edging up to a new high, with most respondents supporting a tough line on offshore detention of asylum seekers – but not so tough that they support the repeal of medical evacuation laws.

Another fortnight, another Essential Research poll that baulks on publishing voting intention numbers. We do, however, get the monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison at a new peak of 49% approval, up one on a fortnight ago, with disapproval down one to 36%. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 36% and up two on disapproval to 31%. Morrison also records the strongest preferred prime minister lead out of the four such results published by Essential since the election, at 46-25, out from 44-28 last month.

The poll also finds strong support for indefinite offshore detention for asylum seekers, with 52% supportive and 32% opposed. However, only 21% accept the government’s position that the medical evacuation legislation “will weaken our borders and result in boats arriving in Australia as they have in the past”, with 41% saying it strikes an appropriate balance and 23% saying it does not go far enough.

A series of questions on Friday’s climate strikes finds 56% in favour and 30% opposed, although only 35% said they were aware of them in response to an initial question, with 54% saying they were unaware. The New South Wales-based respondents to the survey, of which there were 352, were asked a further question on a mooted relaxation of the state’s lockout laws, which 58% supported and 30% opposed.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from an online panel of 1093 respondents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,606 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings”

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  1. The drip to Murdoch tabloids continues…

    “Gladys Liu promised foreign students references for jobs that could lead to permanent residency if they were worked on her campaign / took money from Communist Party of China controlled groups. #auspol

    Besieged MP Gladys Liu promised on Chinese social media she would write references for foreign students in return for volunteering on her campaign at this year’s federal election.

    The references, to help the students find jobs which could lead to permanent residency, came along with the offer of internships in her office if she was elected in Chisholm.

    The Herald Sun can also reveal:

    — The first document showing Chinese Communist Party-linked groups donated to try and elect Ms Liu to state Parliament in 2014.

    — Links between one of Ms Liu’s former campaign organisers and groups tied to China’s United Front operation for overseas influence.

  2. Surely Morrison has to do something about this? Or does he want more glowing write ups in the Global Times?

    “In 2014, Ms Liu received donations from Communist Party-linked groups at a fundraising dinner — headlined by former premier Ted Baillieu — for her failed bid to become an upper house MP.

    The donating organisations included powerful Chinese media conglomerate Ostar, run by Tommy Jiang.

    A brochure also listed the Shanghainese Association of Australia — tied to the Shanghai branch of the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office, part of the United Front — as well as the Australia Guangdong Commerce Council and the Australian Zhejiang United Association.

    It included the United Chinese Commerce Association and the Australian Jiangmen General Commercial Association, of which Ms Liu had been an honorary president for both.

    Several of the donating organisations also sponsored a 2014 event for state Labor MP Hong Lim.

    Ms Liu said: “I am a proud Australian, passionately committed to serving the people of Chisholm, and I won’t get distracted by Labor’s continued personal attacks.”

    But Communist Party interference expert Professor Clive Hamilton said Ms Liu “becomes obligated when she accepts funds from people linked to the Chinese Communist Party”

    “Gladys Liu boasts about her fundraising ability. If she upsets Beijing then much of the funding will dry up,” he said.

  3. Re Liu imbroglio

    High Court to hear today the challenge raised by Oliver Yates re result in Chisholm, electoral signage, etc.

    If successful… presume a by election will need to be called.

  4. Israel’s exit polls showing Bibi going backwards, with Benny Gantz’s centrist Blue and White centrist party in front

    ‘Channel 12’s exit polls shows Kahol Lavan leading with 34 Knesset seats, while Likud is projected to garner 33 seats. Channel 13 showed Kahol Lavan leading with 33 seats, while Likud is expected to gain 31 seats. Kan Public Broadcaster showed the two parties at a tie of 32 seats. ‘

  5. Sprocket

    IMHO Morrison has clearly wedged himself into a corner over the Liu issue.

    If he asks Liu to either stand down or resign then there will be howls of protest playing the race card, etc but also unpleasant mumblings from various groups Liu that she was/is associated with.

    If the PM tries to ignore the issue will more allegations surface, more leaks occur from unnamed sources.

    When this issue first broke the PM should have acted swiftly but rather has dithered

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. There are rich pickings today!

    Matthew Wade explains the rising number that doesn’t get enough attention in our national debate – 713000 which is the number of unemployed people. This is quite a good article.
    Nicholas Stuart tells us how Labor lost the unlosable poll.
    Crispin Hull opines that perhaps the biggest calamity of Labor’s loss in May is that the better policies are in danger of being lost with it.
    As the government prepares to confirm the budget is back in balance for the first time in a decade, the RBA used the minutes of its latest meeting to highlight growing economic risks that may force it to take official interest rates below 1 per cent reports Shane Wright.
    Sports Minister John Sidoti has stood aside pending a corruption investigation, creating another headache for Premier Gladys Berejiklian.
    Anthony Albanese will support the right of big business to speak up on social issues as Labor pushes back at efforts by the Morrison government to wedge it on contentious migration and mandatory jail term proposals.
    Michelle Grattan also writes about Albanese defending social activism by businesses.
    And Michelle reports that Arthur Sinodinos, former minister and Australia’s ambassador-designate to Washington, has warned that the media is becoming a polarised “battleground”, which is dangerous for democracy and science.
    Dana McCauley writes that Christian Porter is weighing further concessions on the government’s union-busting legislation, after a key crossbench senator Rex Patrick demanded further changes to safeguard workers’ ability to take industrial action in order to prevent the government from using the bill as a political weapon.
    The big stick is not anywhere near as big as it sounds, but big business is still nervous about the political risk of a government prone to explosions over energy writes Jennifer Hewett.
    Amnesia has hit the Australian Parliament once again writes Dave Donovan as he explores many instances of it this week.–lies-spies-and-scomao,13114
    Alexandra Smith explains how Berejiklian survived an attack from her own side but not without wounds.
    And the SMH editorial says that the attempted coup against the NSW Premier should serve as a warning to all politicians to think carefully before shafting an elected leader.
    Paul Bongiorno writes about how President Trump will wine and dine his mini-me Scott Morrison in Washington.
    After the poisoning of critically endangered grasslands by a company which he part-owned, Angus Taylor pushed to have the environment legislation reviewed. The review was chaired by Dr Wendy Craik, a regular reviewer for government. Jommy Tee and Ronni Salt investigate conflicts of interest.
    Sally Whyte reports that the government’s automated Centrelink debt recovery scheme, known as “robodebt” is set to face a class action claiming it is unlawfully raising debts, but the government has labelled it no more than a political stunt. Once it gets to court the government might see it differently.
    Emeritus Professor of Law Terry Carney explains how the Robo-debt class action could deliver justice for tens of thousands of Australians instead of mere hundreds.
    Meanwhile the Senate has voted to force the government to reveal compliance data showing the full picture of job seeker suspensions from Newstart payments.
    The gap in the standard of living for disabled Australians on the disability support pension and Newstart is widening, with the Morrison government under pressure to urgently review the scheme reports Katie Burgess.
    A judge will today reveal her reasons for slapping a $140m asset freezing order on controversial businessman and political donor Huang Xiangmo after an application by the Australian taxation office.
    Our servility to the United States is making Australia an international pariah, writes Kellie Tranter.,13113
    The weekend’s drone attack on a key Saudi oil installation is an “unprecedented” attack that exposes Australia’s vulnerability to a global oil shock, an industry commentator has said.
    A security crackdown on cash payments has sparked another rebuke to the Morrison government from its own MPs over its policies, in a warning against draft laws that impose red tape and push up costs for business. In the third criticism of its kind in the space of a week, Liberal and Nationals MPs spoke out against plans to forbid cash payments of $10,000 or more in order to force the use of electronic transactions or cheques. I wonder why.
    The Coalition insists it is progressing new laws to crack down on dodgy payday lenders as consumer advocacy groups warn ongoing delays will see more vulnerable people exposed to the unethical practices of the sector. But they are accused of going slow reports Sarah Martin.
    When politics doesn’t address the big issues it’s not surprising people lose faith in the system writes Peter Lewis. He says that every step of the game is another chance to score a point, while the job of governing for the long term is wilfully ignored.
    Mark Kenny tells us how Jacqui Lambie mixes battler politics with populism to make her swing vote count.
    NBN Co has responded to critics of its wholesale prices with a second consultation paper that proposes new bundles and discounted products as part of its pricing review advised Stephen Bartholomeusz.
    Rob Harris tells us about challenge to embattled Liberal MP Gladys Liu’s election win being heard today by the High Court as federal Labor continues to attack the Morrison government over her past association to Chinese government-linked groups.
    BHP has brushed off Morrison government complaints about big business pandering to activist shareholders, vowing to press ahead with plans to ”influence” the carbon emissions of Chinese steel mills and other big customers.
    Anne Davies reveals that former environment minister Josh Frydenberg went against the advice of his departmental experts when he blocked two wind turbines on Lord Howe Island in 2017, consigning the world-heritage listed island to relying on diesel fuel for the bulk of its electricity.
    Booze lobbyist Mark Textor has joined the anti-booze lobby. Now THAT’s a mouth for hire!
    The increasingly toxic battle between the airlines and the airports has reached a fever pitch – each side trading insults and corralling powerful supporters reports Elizabeth Knight.
    The AFR’s Janie Barrett reports that the new Virgin Australia CEO Paul Scurrah will call for more airport regulation together with Qantas CEO Alan Joyce today at the NPC.
    Economists have warned that under a worst-case scenario Australian petrol prices could hit $2 per litre, if tensions between the United States and Iran escalate into a full-blown war.
    Human rights barrister Simeon Beckett expounds on why the way in which the federal government seeks to achieve its aim to protect statements of religious belief from all claims of discrimination is so procedurally flawed it is bound to fail.
    More than one third of global fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch expect a US recession within the year.
    According to Paul Karp the Senate has approved a Liberal-backed inquiry into whether farming and poor water quality harm the Great Barrier Reef, interpreted as a bid to debate the claims of the controversial scientist Peter Ridd and discredit Queensland laws to protect the reef.
    Perhaps we need to explain climate change to politicians as we would to very small children opines Emma White.
    Deloitte and PwC have taken ‘unusual’ legal steps to keep audit files relating to their audits of two collapsed companies secret.
    Caitlin Fitzsimmons explains how workplace burnout exists and employers need to step up.
    George Pell’s case has fascinated the world. But is it “legally interesting”? That’s what the High Court will deliberate on writes Michael Koziol and Chip le Grand.
    Professor of Workplace Law Anthony Forsyth writes that it’s time for industrial manslaughter laws before more lives are lost.
    Boris Johnson abused an ancient royal power to silence the British Parliament because he saw it as an obstacle to his Brexit plans, a court has been told. Nick Miller covers yesterday’s arguments in the UK Supreme Court.
    Sydney’s growing city needs a diversified portfolio of water resources – a combination of desalination and, importantly, the re-use of water – to ensure independence from unpredictable rainfall proposes Paul Plowman.
    Scott Morrison has angered domestic violence campaigners with a decision to hold an inquiry into the Family Court after years of pressure from Pauline Hanson reports David Crowe.
    John Collett welcomes the reincarnation of the corporate regulator, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), as a cop on the block that not only has more powers but is prepared to use them.
    Women who have later abortions are a tiny minority, and they do not do so lightly writes Nicola Heath.
    A Sydney restaurant manager has told a NSW corruption inquiry that he agreed to lie about donating $10,000 to the Labor Party because his boss’s family was “very powerful” and he was “afraid” they could hurt his career prospects. Michaela Whitbourn reports on what is a damaging ICAC session.
    Jeremy Corbyn has set out the four pillars of a “sensible” Brexit deal he would negotiate with the EU, as he pledged to carry out whatever the people decide in a second EU referendum as Labour prime minister.

    Cartoon Corner – it appears David Rowe and Matt Golding are having a spot of leave.

    A ripper from Fiona Katauskas.

    Cathy Wilcox and “all those women”

    Mark David has a couple of good ones for us.

    Zanetti just can’t help himself!

    From Glen Le Lievre.

    Jon Kudelka and the failed Lib-spill.

    From the US

  7. WarrenMentum?

    WASHINGTON—Former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren have gained support since the summer in their fight for the Democratic presidential nomination and are beginning to separate themselves from the rest of the party’s sprawling 2020 field, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

    Mr. Biden was the top choice of 31% of Democratic primary voters, while Ms. Warren was favored by 25% in the poll, which was conducted after the party’s third primary debate, in Houston, last week. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders was the only other candidate with double-digit support, at 14%.

    Mr. Biden and Ms. Warren were the only candidates whose support grew meaningfully since a July survey. But measures of voter enthusiasm for Ms. Warren have risen during the year while declining for Mr. Biden.

    Some 70% of Democratic primary voters rated themselves as enthusiastic about or comfortable with Ms. Warren, compared with 64% who said so of Mr. Biden. In a sign of her support, Ms. Warren attracted 20,000 supporters at a rally in New York City’s Washington Square Park Monday night.

  8. #WeatheronPB. It’s been raining steadily in Sydney since Monday evening. Just steady light rain, hour after hour, nothing spectacular, adding up to about 75 mm.

  9. Morrison is so apt at supporting his colleagues whilst assassinating their careers from the rear, I wouldn’t be the least surprised if his office is behind the info drop to the media.
    Morrison has taken his time, weaving the racism angle against the ALP, which may ensure a bi-election win.

  10. Another life lost.

    Fucking Australians.

    @sacdefromage (Lara M Arts):
    I’m sorry, I am over it tonight. A very dear friend has ended his life due to the cruel Robodebt that robbed him of the last of his dignity. I reallly hate this government for this cruelty, he did not deserve this. Unfollow me if you must.

  11. “Jeremy Corbyn has set out the four pillars of a “sensible” Brexit deal he would negotiate with the EU, as he pledged to carry out whatever the people decide in a second EU referendum as Labour prime minister.”

    This should have been Labour’s position from day dot: Corbyn has walked both sides of the street over Brexit. We should have been clear to all Labour supporters- and more importantly, the lost and future potential labour supporters – that Labour had a plan to lift them up regardless of the Brexit outcome. Articulate that plan, then Corbyn could simply say on Brexit that the outcomes would be determined by further referenda.

  12. Denise Shrivell
    I kept a lie list during the election campaign where Morrison & members of LNP demonstrably lied daily – & in a recent survey of 703 politically engaged Australians when asked why LNP were re-elected the most common response was ‘they lied’ #auspol

  13. Shanghai Scott has a nice ring to it. 😉

    And it seems as though our brave former SAS Commander, Andrew Hastie MP, not so long ago courageously willing to bell the Chinese cat, has all of a sudden gone very, very quiet as his spine has collapsed.

  14. Rick Wilson obliterates Dems for letting Lewandowski get away with stonewalling: ‘So bad it makes me cringe’

    Anti-Trump Republican strategist Rick Wilson dropped the hammer on House Democrats Tuesday for letting Trump minion Corey Lewandowski make a mockery of their oversight powers.

    After witnessing a House Judiciary Committee hearing that quickly devolved into a circus with Lewandowski stonewalling and evading questions, Wilson unloaded on Democrats for failing in their basic responsibilities in governmental oversight.

    “This is outrageous contempt,” Wilson wrote. “It isn’t just that this scumbag Lewandowski is slapping the committee with it. This is a test, and the Democrats are going to fail it. They’re so bad at this it makes me cringe.”

    “I don’t care about the *legality* of ‘Sargent at arms, take that man into custody,’” Wilson wrote. “I care about the *drama* and the visual. He’s obviously in contempt. By letting him escape the consequences of contempt, the House Democrats send the clear signal that ANYONE from the WH can slap them, spit on the floor and say, ‘Fuck you.’”

    This is where the whole “IMPEACH!” crowd falls down.

    You think THESE people are going to carry out some deus ex machina impeachment miracle when they can’t even handle this bama dipshit Lewandowski?


  15. Well, well, well.

    What has talkback radio host Alan Jones got over Nine chair Peter Costello?

    You have to wonder. As was widely reported in May, Macquarie Media chairman Russell Tate and CEO Adam Lang had determined to let go of its top-rating breakfast host at the expiration of his contract in June and replace him with morning caller Ray Hadley. Even Nine’s chief executive Hugh Marks was in agreement until his non-executive chairman personally intervened. Nine is both Macquarie’s majority shareholder and publisher of this newspaper.

    Then five weeks ago, Jones told his listeners he hoped New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern would have a sock shoved down her throat, and Macquarie chairman Russell Tate formally advised him that “any recurrence of commentary of this nature will result in the termination of his contract”.

    Even subsequent to that warning and Tate’s statement about it, Macquarie management again resolved to cut Jones loose and end his employment. A fortnight ago, as the lost revenue from withdrawn advertising mounted, Nine’s support for the move was sought and received – and then rescinded. Instead, Macquarie announced a “full review” of Jones’ program.

    Questions abound. What place do Nine’s directors have interfering in any talent management judgment, let alone in a non-consolidated subsidiary? And what’s with Costello’s loyalty to – or fear of – Jones? Beats us.

    Who is the dog and who is holding the reigns?

  16. Conclusion: Frydenberg is as weak as water, always giving in to lobbying and donor influence. I thought he was rumoured to be intelligent.

    The case raises questions about political influence in environmental decision making.

    “Former environment minister Josh Frydenberg’s rejection of the Lord Howe Island windfarm is inconsistent with many other environmental approvals where there was strong departmental advice about unavoidable risks to internationally protected places and wildlife,” Basha Stasak, the Australian Conservation Foundation’s nature campaign manager, said.

    “For example, Frydenberg ignored clear departmental advice urging a rejection of the Toondah Harbour property development because it would destroy part of an internationally protected wetland.

    “These inconsistencies go to the heart of the environmental law reform Australia needs. We need strong laws and decisions made under them by an independent national Environment Protection Authority,” she said.

  17. “I don’t care about the *legality* of ‘Sargent at arms, take that man into custody,’” Wilson wrote.

    A great encapsulation of the evil of the Republicans including this absolute bottom of the swamp scum Wilson, which directly led to Trump, and the decline of Parliaments and a 40 year unwillingness to use their reserve powers. Why the evil of Wilson and the Trump he, and the scum like him, made overcomes those who respect the basic law and order and norms.

    The Australian Senate is no better, witness after witness, walks on Senate Committees like you walk on a mat when you are trying to wipe sh1t off.

    The long long project, led by scum like Wilson, to de-legitimatize Govt, de-legitimize Parliaments and de-legitimize democracy has been very very successful. For this evil piece of work to turn around and criticize the place where he and scum like him have spent the better part of 40 years dragging us to, is so very very Trumpian.

  18. More from Rick Wilson :

    Corey Lewandowski Just Made the Democrats Look Utterly Bloodless

    The hearing was a political test, and the House Democrats failed it. They’re shudderingly terrible at this work; they lack the bloodthirsty instincts of political killers

    It’s not about Corey. It’s about the total inability of the House majority to get down to nut-cutting. It’s about the only line of defense in a threatened democracy being manned by a group of people who don’t understand that until you cause Trump’s minions actual pain, with penalties and consequences, they will act with impunity. They know the rules of the show, and Democrats don’t.

  19. @CatherineKingMP
    @AlanTudgeMP admits construction has not commenced on any projects from @ScottMorrisonMP’s Urban Congestion Fund.

    The Minister’s response? They didn’t allocate enough money last financial year and he “hopes” some work will start by Christmas.

  20. PhoenixRed

    My vibe is that the Democrats are deliberately not going for the jugular.
    I have a sense that they are actually buying time for certain events to play out.

    I have the same sense of brexit. Very strange energies all around.

  21. Annabel Crabb
    · 17m
    Hanson says mothers make up allegations of domestic violence and she has evidence but she’s not going to discuss it on air. “It comes across our desk on a weekly basis”.


    Which is why @ScottMorrisonMP put in terms of reference re consideration of apprehend violence orders in inquiry? Is that why? Yay! We’re having an inquiry on family law co chaired by Pauline Hanson that assumes women are lying about AVOs while still getting killed. #howgood

  22. Victoria says: Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 8:29 am


    My vibe is that the Democrats are deliberately not going for the jugular.


    I am not sure Victoria why they don’t use what powers they have to get a ‘witness’ to answer their questions or face contempt and obstruction charges. The fact that all these past WH staffers seem to being directed by Trump/Barr/others to demonstrate Obtruction of Justice and Abuse of Power – the charges labelled on Trump himself …… Many Democrats in the US on reading their twitter accounts etc seem really mad at Nancy Pelosi for not initiating powerful impeachment processes ….

  23. Speaking of grubs and bottom feeders how’s ‘business man’ David Tweed doing these days.

    A Crikey favourite.

    A truly odious individual.

  24. Morning all, thanks BK and others for today’s reporting.


    No, Wilson is right: the Democrats are just hopeless.

    Congress should go to court to compel Lewandowski’s attendance. One of the questions they can ask him, if he ever testifies, is who precisely told him not to answer questions. Was it Trump? If not, did he understand the order to come from Trump?

    For now, the House seems prepared to pivot to another critical topic: Trump’s unconstitutional receipt of foreign emoluments and use of his office to direct business to his own properties. This is corruption, plain and simple, and because it is, this is another way to impress upon the public the president’s unfitness.

    Meanwhile, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has vowed to follow the facts. As difficult as it must be, the House must continue to fight in court to require the cooperation of witnesses. At some point, the obstruction article becomes the obstruction of an investigation into obstruction.

  25. What’s funny is that with every New Thread, the LOAD MORE feature doesn’t work until after a certain number of posts, which may amount to Page 1, I’m not sure. It means I need to revert back to Poll Bludger home, and reload the thread. It does however set a calm slower pace, quite helpful in many ways.

  26. Looks like Bill has put an incredible amount of time into his Napoleonic diorama:

    Damn. I got shit on my shoe again visiting Poll Bludger.

  27. Phoenix/fess

    I agree that generally the Democrats are pretty hopeless at the political game. But having said that, if you look at all the crazy moving parts going on right now, I dare say that the Democrats end game is ending this Presidency. I feel that there is leveraging going on behind closed doors.

  28. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 7:53 am
    Shanghai Scott has a nice ring to it.

    Some Bludger posted a new moniker for Scomo, “Scomao”. (Sorry I can’t recall the poster who coined that gem, I scroll the PB posts pretty fast these days.)

    I think Scomao has a better ring to it. So his RAAF jet can change from Shark 1 to Wonton 1

  29. TPOF
    Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 8:45 am
    Looks like Bill has put an incredible amount of time into his Napoleonic diorama:
    Damn. I got shit on my shoe again visiting Poll Bludger.
    I think you’re just regularly covered in shit. 🙂

  30. I am drawing the odd conclusion that the LNP did not expect to win the last Federal election.

    The LNP DNA is laziness and why work if we can outsource?

    They are now in government again, BUT terrified about the state of play ie Liu scandal, economy on the skids, drought, climate change.

    They are like a kangaroo in headlights.. unpredictable, stupid and more.

    I think many LNP MPs would prefer to be in opposition less work but still paid well.

  31. Vic:

    I’m not confident the Democrats have a long game plan of anything. I was supportive of their initial go-slow on impeachment, but since then evidence of corruption in plain sight continues to amass, and now Lewandowski basically giving them the finger.

    Lawfare blog’s executive editor.

    Susan HennesseyVerified account@Susan_Hennessey
    57m57 minutes ago
    What is at stake here is the basic principle of separation of powers. Have a plan to deal with this nonsense before you walk in the room. If Lewandowski is going to rely on “novel” interpretations of executive privilege, then embrace aggressive assertions of contempt.

    Susan HennesseyVerified account@Susan_Hennessey
    57m57 minutes ago
    The courts are going to decide this one way or another. Unless congressional Democrats get serious and tough, a subpoena is effectively pretty please. Make stalling and stonewalling come at a real price.

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