In through the out door

Sarah Henderson returns to parliament via a Senate vacancy and a hotly contested preselection, as Coalition MPs blow bubbles on electoral “reform”.

Two brief news items to relate on Australian matters, as well as which we have the latest of Adrian Beaumont’s increasingly regular updates on the constitutional mess that is Brexit.

Sarah Henderson, who held the seat of Corangamite for the Liberals from 2013 until her defeat in May, will return to parliament today after winning preselection to fill Mitch Fifield’s Victorian Senate vacancy. This follows her 234-197 win in a party vote held on Saturday over Greg Mirabella, a Wangaratta farmer and the husband of former Indi MP Sophie Mirabella. After initial expectations that Henderson was all but assured of the spot, Mirabella’s campaign reportedly gathered steam in the lead-up to Saturday’s vote, resulting in a late flurry of public backing for Henderson from Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg, Jeff Kennett, Michael Kroger and Michael Sukkar.

Also, The Australian reports Queensland Liberal Senator James McGrath will push for the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, of which he is the chair, to consider abolishing proportional representation in the Senate and replacing it with a system in which each state is broken down into six provinces, each returning a single member at each half-Senate election – very much like the systems that prevailed in the state upper houses of Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia in the bad old days before the advent of proportional representation.

Ostensibly motivated by a desire to better represent the regions, such a system would result in a Senate dominated as much as the House of Representatives by the major parties, at a time of ongoing erosion in public support for them. The Australian’s report further quotes Nationals Senator Perin Davey advocating the equally appalling idea of rural vote weighting for the House. The kindest thing that can be said about both proposals is that they are not going to happen, although the latter would at least give the High Court an opportunity to take a stand for democracy by striking it down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,838 comments on “In through the out door”

Comments Page 8 of 57
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  1. Player One says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2019 at 7:02 pm

    I think you are missing the nuance of briefly’s argument: Australian Coal is better than other coal, so each tonne of Australian coal extracted means a tonne and a bit* of that dodgy inferior overseas coal doesn’t need to be extracted, thereby saving the planet!

    I’ve never claimed that at all. On the contrary, I’ve made the point that Australian seaborne thermal coal exports are 3% of global thermal coal volumes.

    The guts of it with coal is that all of the thermal coal consumed in all economies in electricity production contributes 10% of total GHGs. Coal comprises 2/5 of the carbon-based fuel used in electricity production, which all taken together contribute 25% of GHG emissions.

    Carbon-derived electricity is declining as a share of total electricity produced. This is possible because of the technical and economic success of renewables. As the adoption and diffusion of renewables increases it will be possible to retire generation plant that depends on carbon-based fuels. This is occurring. The rate at which occurs will accelerate as the production costs of renewably-derived electricity continue to decline.

  2. lizzie @ #344 Thursday, September 12th, 2019 – 7:24 pm

    Tao de Haas @TaodeHaas
    ·
    10m
    The Happy Clapper Slogan Bogan is playing the race card. How vile is that?! So someone who’s born overseas should be immune from being asked questions about their overseas alliances and affiliations? How ridiculous is that?! #auspol

    So ridiculous Labor will run with it and demolish the Happy Cappler Slogan Bogan.
    Or not.

  3. Bulldust says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2019 at 7:33 pm

    I agree with you completely. Given the obstacles we face and the little time we have, it’s important to do things that will actually work rather than things that will fail or which are simply a pretence.

  4. Bushfire Bill @ #355 Thursday, September 12th, 2019 – 7:46 pm

    C@t, I thought “Guandong Gladys” (your alliterative soubriquet) was MUCH punchier.

    Thank you, BB. It has an onomatopaeoic element to it as well.

    And your comment @ 7.41pm was spot on. ‘Racism’ is simply the Right’s attempt to colonise the multicultural demographic to vote for the Liberal Party, where they have traditionally voted Labor, by being seen to be their defenders.

    I’d be interested to see the statistics as to whether the Chinese-Australian community is one of, if not the, biggest Non-Anglo community in Australia. Most especially considering their numbers appear to be increasing rapidly.

  5. “Tories can stare this sort of thing down.
    Labor goes to water.
    It’s a left right thing.”

    That is not quite right. When push comes to shove, the Noise Machine will go quiet on tories, while amping up to full voltage for an equivalent Labor misstep. The media can decide to smother a story or run with it for weeks.

  6. Given a shit load of untapped coal in the ground and the power to keep it there, do you instead allow it to go into the atmosphere? The question, unfortunately, is as simple as that.


  7. Player One says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2019 at 6:21 pm

    However, if you can be bothered to read that last link, it points out that the only significant decline in coal will have to be driven by regulation – in particular, the increase in carbon pricing.

    Labor worked hard to make it happen for a decade, the Greens made sure it didn’t happen.
    If the Greens were 10% of the party they think the are they wouldn’t need labor to make it happen.
    Come on where is the price on carbon?

  8. Steve777 @ #359 Thursday, September 12th, 2019 – 7:53 pm

    “Tories can stare this sort of thing down.
    Labor goes to water.
    It’s a left right thing.”

    That is not quite right. When push comes to shove, the Noise Machine will go quiet on tories, while amping up to full voltage for an equivalent Labor misstep. The media can decide to smother a story or run with it for weeks.

    Too right. Though it was pleasing to see The Daily Telegraph run with the John Sidoti story this week.

  9. The success of renewables does not depend on carbon pricing. It’s arguable that reductions in the output prices of renewably-generated electricity will be more pronounced without a carbon price than with one.
    The cheaper these prices, the faster will renewables be adopted. The faster and more extensive the adoption of renewables, the more quickly will combustion of carbon-based fuels decline.

  10. Poliphili @ #347 Thursday, September 12th, 2019 – 7:33 pm

    P1 @ 7.02
    Not that it is critical to your spurious argument, but to assert that a metric tonne is 2.2 times that of the old imperial ton is totally wrong. I guess you have confused kips with tons? In any case a metric tonne is pretty close to an imperial ton.
    Ie approx 2205: 2240.

    No, you mistake me. It is a metric bit that is 2.2 times an imperial bit.

    Causes all sorts of confusion when people use old computers!

  11. [‘Besieged Liberal MP Gladys Liu did not disclose her membership of organisations linked to the Chinese Government’s foreign interference operations when she ran for preselection for the federal seat she now holds.’]

    __________________________________________
    As far as I know a member of Parliament can update their register of personal interests at any time. Wasn’t this why there wasn’t an issue with Shorten adding the 40k Unibilt donation to his campaign 8 years after it occurred?

  12. Steve777 @ #358 Thursday, September 12th, 2019 – 7:53 pm

    “Tories can stare this sort of thing down.
    Labor goes to water.
    It’s a left right thing.”

    That is not quite right. When push comes to shove, the Noise Machine will go quiet on tories, while amping up to full voltage for an equivalent Labor misstep. The media can decide to smother a story or run with it for weeks.

    Back to the media again.
    Labor needs to buy a paper and a TV station or just fuckin give up.

  13. Watermelon says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2019 at 7:55 pm
    Given a shit load of untapped coal in the ground and the power to keep it there, do you instead allow it to go into the atmosphere? The question, unfortunately, is as simple as that.

    This is entirely disingenuous. The question is not whether to dig but whether to burn the coal. They are not the same thing.

  14. briefly @ #365 Thursday, September 12th, 2019 – 8:11 pm

    The success of renewables does not depend on carbon pricing.

    You never let actual … you know … facts … get in your way, do you? You just repeat the same crap over and over … day in … day out … 🙁

    In virtually every modelled scenario, “business as usual” – which is what you are advocating – leads to very, very sub-optimal outcomes. I would say “catastrophic” (a term many climate scientists now use) but I would be accused of being a “doom sayer” 🙁

  15. mundo
    says:
    Labor needs to buy a paper and a TV station or just fuckin give up.
    _______________________________
    Of course in earlier decades the Labour movement started newspapers and radio stations because of perceived bias. Not sure they were that popular.

  16. nath:

    In terms of gravity, hardly a sound comparison. At its essence, the allegation against Lui is that she’s a conduit for the Communist Party of China, privy to the inner workings of the Australian Government.

  17. “No, you mistake me. It is a metric bit that is 2.2 times an imperial bit.”

    Not sure what you mean by this. One kilogram is about 2.2 pounds. Many old people (who finished school before metrification) mentally convert metric measures to the old money to appreciate them.

    To convert kg to lbs, double and add 10%
    To convert lbs to kg, halve and reduce by 10%
    Km to miles, multiply by 5/8
    One tonne is very close (about 98%) of a ton.
    Km/h is roughly feet per second (about 8% more)
    Metres to yards add 10%

  18. briefly @ #370 Thursday, September 12th, 2019 – 8:17 pm

    This is entirely disingenuous. The question is not whether to dig but whether to burn the coal. They are not the same thing.

    That’s right – there are so many other uses for coal other than burning it … like … um … *

    * Yes, unlike briefly, I actually do know that some coal is used for other things, such as chemical feedstock. But this is minimal, and generally leads to most, if not all, of the carbon being released in any case 🙁

  19. nath says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2019 at 8:18 pm
    mundo
    says:
    Labor needs to buy a paper and a TV station or just fuckin give up.
    _______________________________
    Of course in earlier decades the Labour movement started newspapers and radio stations because of perceived bias. Not sure they were that popular.
    ________________________________
    Not so fast nath, just think of some of the fascinating columns in a modern Labor Herald:

    Bushfire Bill – Let me tell you yet again about my wife’s tedious dispute with Health System bureaucracy
    c@tmomma – the time i Met Bob Hawke at Terrigal
    zoomster – My side of selfiegate with Albo
    Boerwar – One man and his octopus stand against the Greens dictatorship

  20. Mavis Davis
    says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2019 at 8:20 pm
    nath:
    In terms of gravity, hardly a sound comparison. At its essence, the allegation against Lui is that she’s a conduit for the Communist Party of China, privy to the inner workings of the Australian Government.
    _________________________________________
    Perhaps. But wouldn’t the security services have notified the Liberal party during the preselection process for Chisholm?

  21. Steve777 @ #375 Thursday, September 12th, 2019 – 8:21 pm

    “No, you mistake me. It is a metric bit that is 2.2 times an imperial bit.”

    Not sure what you mean by this. One kilogram is about 2.2 pounds. Many old people (who finished school before metrification) mentally convert metric measures to the old money to appreciate them.

    To convert kg to lbs, double and add 10%
    To convert lbs to kg, halve and reduce by 10%
    Km to mikes, multiply by 5/8
    One tonne is very close (about 98%) of a ton.
    Km/h is roughly feet per second (about 8% more)
    Metres to yards add 10%

    The point is, that if you have a pre-metric computer, each imperial bit is worth less than a metric bit.

    This causes much grief during operating system upgrades. It has been known to cause older computers to spontaneously combust, releasing all the carbon stored in each bit in one catastrophic explosion.

    It has been postulated that the Russian’s use of a pre-metric computer was actually the real cause of the chernobyl meltdown.

  22. …the understanding is that, when you put your hand up to be preselected, that you tell the party absolutely anything that might cause any difficulties in the future. The decision will then be made whether whatever sins you’ve committed can be dealt with should they become public, or whether you should quietly withdraw your nomination and slink off into the night.

    Generally, parties try and sort out potential difficulties before you even put your hand up for preselection.

    After you’re preselected, there are further rounds of scrutiny.

    If you get elected, and one of the dark secrets you told the party before preselection comes to light, the commitment is that they’ll back you. What they get really sour about is if something comes up that you haven’t told them.

    I’ve known of situations where there has been several people indicate they’re putting their hands up for preselection but the pre-preselection screening process has ended up with nobody putting their hand up at all.

  23. I’ve just watched the now infamous interview with Liu by Bolt. The Libs were clearly thinking a Sky After Dark interview with Andrew Bolt would be a walk in the park where he handled her with gentle foot massages and bouquets of flowers. Not so.

    https://youtu.be/qoy8mKRmALA

  24. Lars @8:23 PM. I suppose Nath could be an occasional guest columnist. He could write articles on how bad Bill Shorten is. Co-written with Rex. For balance, you understand, like Philip Adams in The Australian.

    P.S. Labor’s radio station in Sydney was 2KY, which I think is still going. Last I heard it seemed to broadcast the races 24 hours a day. Still does as far as I know.

  25. The acceleration in the adoption of renewables + batteries has occurred in the absence of carbon prices. That is, in neither theory nor practice has a carbon price been shown to be better than no carbon price.

    Bludgers talk about “models”. These models are economic constructs. Bludgers need to work out whether they like economics or not. I like it. I think the economics of innovation in the electricity sector are quite clear. The freer the markets – the more variation that can be allowed – the faster will they adapt.

    The revenues in the energy markets are absolutely massive by any definition. Anyone that can successfully undercut fossil fuels will have access to those revenues. There is no need to increase the prices of fossil-fuel-derived power. The raw material used in renewables is free. The ability to use those raw materials is a matter of technology and capital. Since capital is inexhaustibly available and almost free as well, the only real obstacles to the adoption of renewables are technical. Technical innovation will happen providing the innovators have access to the markets. This is an argument in favour de-regulating the generation sector (as distinct from the distribution/network system, which constitute the market for the generators). This is working. There is a lot of reflexive non-analysis in this area, which is characterised by moral panic rather than good questions.

  26. nath says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2019 at 8:29 pm
    Lars, I would like to read the one about Hawkie though
    __________________________________
    I’m saving the story for my new political movie, Das Luftschloss

    Although I am tempted to share details of the Terrigal scene set in 1975 when C@t met Hawkie.

  27. A by-election in Chisholm wouldn’t be the worst thing to appease the PB beasts. It’s a while until the next state election, Queensland October 2020 I understand. Slim pickings until then.

  28. Lars, how is Das Schloss in Himmel progressing?
    Have you thought of a sub-theme of confrontation while handing out HTVs. I would suggest BB and John Sidoti; C@t and Lucy Wicks.

    I hope you will repeat the experience of Melancholia with a prologue accompanied by a Wagnerian piece. You know the sort of thing; C@t and Hawkie running towards each other through a forrest at slow motion and with plenty of vaseline on the lens.
    What Wagner would be appropriate?
    Initially I felt the theme of power and politics would support Ehre deine deustchen Meisters
    https://youtu.be/u61XvPYyaE0
    But the theme of powerful love ending in disaster is overpowering and it must be Lieberstod
    https://youtu.be/oOGs8TtnwoI

  29. briefly @ #386 Thursday, September 12th, 2019 – 8:32 pm

    The acceleration in the adoption of renewables + batteries has occurred in the absence of carbon prices. That is, in neither theory nor practice has a carbon price been shown to be better than no carbon price.

    Oh, for goodness sake. What part of “the demand for coal has actually gone up, despite the rise of renewables” can’t you understand?

    Bludgers talk about “models”. These models are economic constructs. Bludgers need to work out whether they like economics or not. I like it. I think the economics of innovation in the electricity sector are quite clear. The freer the markets – the more variation that can be allowed – the faster will they adapt.

    Yes, that’s right. Only Bludgers talk about models. Oh, and the IPCC of course. Oh, and the fossil fuel companies of course. Oh, and just about every goddam climate scientist of course. And guess what? Those models show that your simplistic notions of the way things work are just plain wrong. Or at the very least, that they lead to worse outcomes than we need to have.

    The revenues in the energy markets are absolutely massive by any definition. Anyone that can successfully undercut fossil fuels will have access to those revenues. There is no need to increase the prices of fossil-fuel-derived power. The raw material used in renewables is free. The ability to use those raw materials is a matter of technology and capital. Since capital is inexhaustibly available and almost free as well, the only real obstacles to the adoption of renewables are technical. Technical innovation will happen providing the innovators have access to the markets. This is an argument in favour de-regulating the generation sector (as distinct from the distribution/network system, which constitute the market for the generators). This is working. There is a lot of reflexive non-analysis in this area, which is characterised by moral panic rather than good questions.

    Ummm. I could dissect this load of bollocks. But out of pity, I just won’t. I will leave you some dignity.

  30. Labor also owned 2HD in Newcastle. It was originally owned by the Jehovah’s Witnesses but was seized by the Curtin government in 1942 after an accusation that it was sending covet messages to the Japanese. It was then sold to the ALP until Bruvver Ducker flogged it off in the 90s

  31. Oakeshott Country says:
    Thursday, September 12, 2019 at 8:45 pm
    Labor also owned 2HD in Newcastle. It was originally owned by the Jehovah’s Witnesses but was seized by the Curtin government in 1942 after an accusation that it was sending covet messages to the Japanese. It was then sold to the ALP until Bruvver Ducker flogged it off in the 90s
    ________________________________
    Whatever became of Centenary House?

  32. Before we go any further I would just like to remind you all that all Labor politicians are bad, that Labor is bad, that Labor’s policies are bad and that it is all Labor’s fault.

    That out of the way, we can focus on the forthcoming Greens government.

    The Greens are going to fix 10% of Australia’s emissions by doing and applying some research on bovine and ovine burps and farts.

    It’s all in their Blue Sky policy statement, except for the amount of CO2 reduced by controlling bovine and ovine greenhouse emissions, the budget, the actual research, and the target dates (except for 2040 which is when the Greens achieve emissions nirvana).

    All by 2040 at the latest.

    Presumably if Plan A does not work Australia’s 100,000,000 bovines and ovines will have to be euthanized humanely.

    Di Natale will organize a Bovine Greens Stampede to bring this crucial policy issue home to the Great Unwashed in Queensland during the 2036 Federal Election.

  33. Centenary House!
    Sorry I was drinking red wine and just snorted it through my nose.
    I wonder what Loosley is up to now? – at least labor ensured he got a decent pension

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