Brexit minus seven weeks: the procrastinating parliament

A large share of blame for the Brexit shambles goes to parliament, which can only procrastinate. Also featured: the September 17 Israeli election. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at The University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Late on September 9, Parliament was prorogued until October 14, after Boris Johnson again fell well short of the two-thirds Commons majority needed for an early election. Earlier, the bill requiring Johnson to request a Brexit extension by October 19 received royal assent. An election cannot now be held until at least mid-November.

While a majority of the Commons opposes a no-deal Brexit, there is no majority for anything else. Theresa May’s deal was rejected three times by decisive to crushing margins. In late March and early April, several options were considered and all were defeated – even though Conservative MPs were given a free vote and the cabinet abstained.

Parliament’s only decision has been to delay the Brexit date, first from late March to late October, and now they want to delay until at least late January. The Commons could not even decide to hold an election.

Given this procrastination, you can see why polls suggest that voters are fed up with Parliament, and are more sympathetic to a no-deal Brexit than to further delay. Boris Johnson has exploited this sentiment.

The legislation passed by Parliament requires Johnson to seek a Brexit extension by October 19. If he does not request an extension, the courts would order him to. If he still defied Parliament, he would be held in contempt of court, and possibly jailed. However, I don’t think Johnson would stop being PM just because he was in jail. The only qualification to be PM is that you are an MP. Unless the sentence was 12 months or more, Johnson would not be immediately disqualified.

It appears that Johnson’s lawyers will attempt to find loopholes in the legislation, and appeal adverse court decisions. Courts can act far faster than normal when required, but Johnson will hope to get through the 12 days between October 19 and 31 without his actions being declared illegal by the Supreme Court, the highest UK court of appeal.

Prior to the passage of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act during the 2010-15 Parliament, a government defeated on crucial legislation could call an election – as Johnson tried to do. Almost all legislation concerns the general business of government, whereas this legislation seeks to compel just the PM to act against his wishes.

The Australian government cannot refuse to implement the Medevac legislation, as this legislation is carried out by civil servants. Any executive order directly contradicting legislation would be quickly struck out by the courts.

If a no-deal Brexit occurs on October 31, it will be because Johnson forced Parliament to choose between no-deal and something more unpalatable, with no procrastination available. Examples are: no-deal vs PM Jeremy Corbyn, or no-deal vs no Brexit.

Polls released last weekend were mixed. The Conservative lead was 3-5 points in four polls, ten points in Opinium and 14 points in YouGov. A ComRes poll released Tuesday had the Conservative lead falling from four points to one. Having alienated Remain voters, Johnson must avoid disappointing Leave voters, so it seems unlikely he will either extend Brexit or revert to a deal similar to May’s.

On the economic fundamentals, the Conservatives should be winning. In the latest figures, UK unemployment was 3.8%, and real wage growth in the year to July was 1.9% excluding bonuses.

Israeli polls suggest another deadlocked Knesset

Right-wing Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to have won his fourth successive term at the April 2019 election when right-wing and religious parties won a combined 65 of the 120 Knesset seats. But Yisrael Beiteinu demanded conscription be introduced for the ultra-Orthodox, which the religious parties opposed. Netanyahu was unable to form a government, and new elections were scheduled for September 17.

Polls suggest a similar outcome to March 2019. Netanyahu’s Likud and its allies have 56-58 combined Knesset seats. The left-leaning Blue & White and other parties who could support it have 53-55 seats. So Yisrael Beiteinu, which is not a left-wing party, may well decide if there can be a new government after the election.

All 120 Knesset seats are elected by national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold. Netanyahu’s task will be easier if a far-right party clears the threshold. Polls close at 5am September 18 Australian Eastern Standard Time.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

104 comments on “Brexit minus seven weeks: the procrastinating parliament”

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  1. On the Israeli election, it looks like the results are even less conducive to the formation of a Government than the April one, with both Likud and Blue & White appearing to lose some ground.

  2. Counting in Israel has been slooooow. Almost 11 hours since polls closed, only 35% has been officially counted. It appears that they’re triple-checking everything before it gets posted.

    https://votes22.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults (need Google Translate)

    A leak from the Electoral Commission gives near final results, with the right bloc on 56 of 120 seats and 55 for the left. Yisrael Beiteinu, whose advocacy for ultra-Orthodox conscription sank Netanyahu’s bid to form a govt following the April election, has nine seats and will be the kingmakers if the leaked results are correct.

    I hope to be able to submit a new Brexit post tonight, but may have to wait until tomorrow depending on when final Israeli figures are available.

  3. Summary of a summary:

    NI, abandoned or comforted?

    BORIS JOHNSON STEPS UP PLANS FOR ALL-IRELAND ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP AFTER BREXIT…

    https://www.ft.com/content/723ac4ce-d973-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17

    Snowflakes? Nostalgia? Nazis? Hard to make sense of this one.

    Boris Johnson’s treatment at the hands of Luxembourg’s prime minister is a reminder of why the UK wants to leave the European Union, the US ambassador said on Tuesday night. In a show of solidarity, Woody Johnson said that having “built the greatest empire” and “held off the Nazis”, the British “didn’t need a lecture from anybody on how to run their country … and that includes Brussels”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/17/brexit-stunt-shows-uk-wants-says-us/

    Opportunistic ‘REMAIN Party’?

    Jeremy Corbyn is “Brexit by nature”, Jo Swinson has said today, as she laid the blame for the 2016 referendum result at the Labour leader’s feet.

    https://www.cityam.com/corbyn-is-brexit-by-nature-claims-swinson/

    Aussies are used to being patronized.

    International Trade Secretary Liz Truss will meet her Australian counterpart Simon Birmingham and other senior politicians in the capital Canberra on Wednesday. … It’s good to see that Australia is going to be quick off the mark

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-australia-to-begin-trade-talks-with-uk-as-soon-as-possible-a4239566.html

    Return of the colony?

    Britain is pushing for a freedom of movement deal that will allow Australians to live and work in both countries without a visa. The proposal was discussed by the UK’s trade secretary, Liz Truss, and Australian Trade Minister Simon Birmingham in Canberra on Wednesday.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7476109/Britain-pushing-deal-allow-Australians-live-work-countries-without-visa.html

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