Brexit minus seven weeks: the procrastinating parliament

A large share of blame for the Brexit shambles goes to parliament, which can only procrastinate. Also featured: the September 17 Israeli election. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at The University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Late on September 9, Parliament was prorogued until October 14, after Boris Johnson again fell well short of the two-thirds Commons majority needed for an early election. Earlier, the bill requiring Johnson to request a Brexit extension by October 19 received royal assent. An election cannot now be held until at least mid-November.

While a majority of the Commons opposes a no-deal Brexit, there is no majority for anything else. Theresa May’s deal was rejected three times by decisive to crushing margins. In late March and early April, several options were considered and all were defeated – even though Conservative MPs were given a free vote and the cabinet abstained.

Parliament’s only decision has been to delay the Brexit date, first from late March to late October, and now they want to delay until at least late January. The Commons could not even decide to hold an election.

Given this procrastination, you can see why polls suggest that voters are fed up with Parliament, and are more sympathetic to a no-deal Brexit than to further delay. Boris Johnson has exploited this sentiment.

The legislation passed by Parliament requires Johnson to seek a Brexit extension by October 19. If he does not request an extension, the courts would order him to. If he still defied Parliament, he would be held in contempt of court, and possibly jailed. However, I don’t think Johnson would stop being PM just because he was in jail. The only qualification to be PM is that you are an MP. Unless the sentence was 12 months or more, Johnson would not be immediately disqualified.

It appears that Johnson’s lawyers will attempt to find loopholes in the legislation, and appeal adverse court decisions. Courts can act far faster than normal when required, but Johnson will hope to get through the 12 days between October 19 and 31 without his actions being declared illegal by the Supreme Court, the highest UK court of appeal.

Prior to the passage of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act during the 2010-15 Parliament, a government defeated on crucial legislation could call an election – as Johnson tried to do. Almost all legislation concerns the general business of government, whereas this legislation seeks to compel just the PM to act against his wishes.

The Australian government cannot refuse to implement the Medevac legislation, as this legislation is carried out by civil servants. Any executive order directly contradicting legislation would be quickly struck out by the courts.

If a no-deal Brexit occurs on October 31, it will be because Johnson forced Parliament to choose between no-deal and something more unpalatable, with no procrastination available. Examples are: no-deal vs PM Jeremy Corbyn, or no-deal vs no Brexit.

Polls released last weekend were mixed. The Conservative lead was 3-5 points in four polls, ten points in Opinium and 14 points in YouGov. A ComRes poll released Tuesday had the Conservative lead falling from four points to one. Having alienated Remain voters, Johnson must avoid disappointing Leave voters, so it seems unlikely he will either extend Brexit or revert to a deal similar to May’s.

On the economic fundamentals, the Conservatives should be winning. In the latest figures, UK unemployment was 3.8%, and real wage growth in the year to July was 1.9% excluding bonuses.

Israeli polls suggest another deadlocked Knesset

Right-wing Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to have won his fourth successive term at the April 2019 election when right-wing and religious parties won a combined 65 of the 120 Knesset seats. But Yisrael Beiteinu demanded conscription be introduced for the ultra-Orthodox, which the religious parties opposed. Netanyahu was unable to form a government, and new elections were scheduled for September 17.

Polls suggest a similar outcome to March 2019. Netanyahu’s Likud and its allies have 56-58 combined Knesset seats. The left-leaning Blue & White and other parties who could support it have 53-55 seats. So Yisrael Beiteinu, which is not a left-wing party, may well decide if there can be a new government after the election.

All 120 Knesset seats are elected by national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold. Netanyahu’s task will be easier if a far-right party clears the threshold. Polls close at 5am September 18 Australian Eastern Standard Time.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

104 comments on “Brexit minus seven weeks: the procrastinating parliament”

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  1. Prorogation was ruled lawful by a N Ireland court. So that makes it 2-1 in favour of the govt, with the English and N Ireland courts supporting, while the Scottish court opposes.

    Next Tuesday the Supreme Court hearing starts, and I would think they would announce their decision by the following week.

  2. Adrian Beaumont @ #51 Saturday, September 14th, 2019 – 10:32 am

    Prorogation was ruled lawful by a N Ireland court. So that makes it 2-1 in favour of the govt, with the English and N Ireland courts supporting, while the Scottish court opposes.

    Next Tuesday the Supreme Court hearing starts, and I would think they would announce their decision by the following week.

    Do these courts (NI, Scotland, England) carry equal weight? I’m thinking about legal and political heft.

  3. When will Brexiters face facts: it is the “Irish question” that is making EU integration an omelette that is near impossible to unscramble. If Johnson wants to secure a legacy of “making Britain great again” (meaning “independent from Europe), he would be well advised to enter into serious discussions with the Taoiseach about an enduring relationship of peace and mutual respect between their respective islands.

  4. Northern Ireland is not the only issue that is of concern to Ireland. Much of Ireland`s trade goes through Great Britain by truck (taking a ferry either side of Great Britain) as well as many of its air routes, Irish trade with the UK and Irish workers in the UK. It is likely that, if the EU treaties allowed Ireland to veto Brexit, Ireland would veto Brexit.

  5. Michael A @ #54 Saturday, September 14th, 2019 – 4:29 pm

    When will Brexiters face facts: it is the “Irish question” that is making EU integration an omelette that is near impossible to unscramble. If Johnson wants to secure a legacy of “making Britain great again” (meaning “independent from Europe), he would be well advised to enter into serious discussions with the Taoiseach about an enduring relationship of peace and mutual respect between their respective islands.

    He won’t do that because of three letters: D.U.P.

    To be fair to the Brexiters, comparing the population count of the UK (67,603,098) and N.Ireland (1,889,300) and similar counts for Australia (25,236,900) and Tasmania (520,830) might be useful. (The numbers are from Wikipedia.) By these population numbers N.I. is 2.8% of the UK and Tasmania is 2.1% of Australia. And Bass Strait is several times wider than than the Irish Sea. The analogy collapses logistically because Tasmania doesn’t share a land border with a ‘foreign’ country, but politically and emotionally it might be relevant to us in Oz, if maybe we were in an equivalent “Asian Union”.

    Just a thought.

  6. Two new polls today, with contradictory results. Opinium has the Tories lead expanding from 10 pts last week to 12, while ComRes has their lead at just one with a Lib Dem surge since last week. In Opinium, Tories plus Brexit at 50% of the vote, in ComRes they’re at just 41%.

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    2h
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 28% (-2)
    LAB: 27% (-2)
    LDEM: 20% (+3)
    BREX: 13% (-)
    GRN: 5% (+1)

    via
    @ComRes

    Chgs. w/ 08 Sep
    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    5h
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 37% (+2)
    LAB: 25% (-)
    LDEM: 16% (-1)
    BREX: 13% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via
    @OpiniumResearch
    , fieldwork this week
    Chgs. w/ 06 Sep

  7. Adrian Beaumont @ #58 Sunday, September 15th, 2019 – 10:37 am

    Two new polls today, with contradictory results. Opinium has the Tories lead expanding from 10 pts last week to 12, while ComRes has their lead at just one with a Lib Dem surge since last week. In Opinium, Tories plus Brexit at 50% of the vote, in ComRes they’re at just 41%.

    CON: 28% (-2)
    LAB: 27% (-2)
    LDEM: 20% (+3)
    BREX: 13% (-)
    GRN: 5% (+1)
    via @ComRes Chgs. w/ 08 Sep

    CON: 37% (+2)
    LAB: 25% (-)
    LDEM: 16% (-1)
    BREX: 13% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)
    via @OpiniumResearch, fieldwork this week Chgs. w/ 06 Sep

    I don’t know how to read the dates but might they imply that ComRes picked up a late swing?

  8. Late Riser, the dates after “changes w” are from the last issue of that particular poll, ie, the fieldwork for the last ComRes poll ended 8 Sept, and for the last Opinium on 6 Sept.

    I expec t fieldwork for this Sunday’s two polls were almost the same.

  9. Thanks Adrian. So the reference to the dates is effectively to the previous poll to provide context for the (delta %). Makes sense. 🙂

  10. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/15/johnson-to-defy-benn-bill-quit-31-october-come-what-may
    Headline:

    Johnson to tell Juncker: ‘I won’t discuss Brexit extension beyond 31 October’

    Opening para:

    Boris Johnson will tell the outgoing European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, on Monday that he will defy a new act of parliament and refuse to discuss or accept any offer to extend the UK’s membership even if a Brexit deal cannot be agreed, Downing Street said last night.

    The article goes on to quote Johnson, “I am straining to get a deal, but I will also end the uncertainty and take us out on 31 October.”

    So Johnson’s approach is to bend the DUP and the EU a compromise. Since this means the DUP have to be on board to get a deal the 4th to last para becomes interesting:

    Downing Street said that David Frost was making good progress in talks with DUP leaders, which could lead to a breakthrough on the issue of the Irish border. While the DUP leader, Arlene Foster, has denied that her party is shifting its position and would now be prepared to accept regulatory checks in the Irish Sea and some regulatory divergence from Britain

    The article doesn’t shed any light on the EU’s take on any of this.

    My conclusion is that unless there is a “breakthrough” regarding N.I. or the UK rescinds article 50 I still think that Brexit-Without-A-Deal is the most likely result.

  11. Wow.

    A new UK wide poll shows strong support for both a Scottish Independence referendum and for a Northern Ireland referendum on joining Ireland or staying in UK!!

    When “don’t knows” are removed the split is 60% in support of a Scottish Independence referendum and 40% against, according to the poll of 1,504 people.

    On the issue of the Northern Ireland border ………When the “don’t knows” are removed the split is 73% in support of the idea and 27% against.

    https://outline.com/ZRsYs7

  12. For a fun/funny read: https://brexitcentral.com/today/brexit-news-for-sunday-15-september/

    Outrage:

    Remainer MPs are secretly plotting to revoke Article 50 and stop the UK leaving the European Union at the end of next month, the Government warned on Saturday night.

    Awe:

    Boris Johnson today tells Brussels that Britain will break out of its ‘manacles’ like The Incredible Hulk if a Brexit deal cannot be struck by October 31.

    Admiration:

    Boris Johnson plans to push through a new Brexit deal in a 10-day blitz, says Number 10.

    Terror:

    DANIEL HANNAN: OUR DEMOCRACY IS BEING OVERTHROWN BY THE EU’S HIDEOUS STRENGTH

    Heroism:

    THE SUN: BORIS JOHNSON WILL NOT BLINK IN STAND-OFF WITH REMOANERS AFTER REBELS COLLUDED WITH LABOUR IN THEIR MISGUIDED BID TO BLOCK NO DEAL BREXIT

    Betrayal:

    Such treachery will irrevocably split the Tory party and hand power to Jeremy Corbyn and his Marxist cronies.

  13. swamprat, those numbers are certainly a “Wow”, but I think it’s dangerous to assume 60% of the 25% will vote Yes and 40% will vote No.

  14. Late Riser,

    That’s a UK wide, therefore mostly English voters.

    It is only supporting having a referendum. It is not measuring support for i dependence itslef.

  15. Under the Good Friday agreement the UK government is obliged to call a NI referendum when there is evidence that it may succeed

    If this poll is even close to correct and Brexit proves to be a disaster, Ireland will be united (much to the secret chagrin of mainstream southern politicians) by 2025

  16. swamprat @ #67 Sunday, September 15th, 2019 – 7:53 pm

    Late Riser,

    That’s a UK wide, therefore mostly English voters.

    It is only supporting having a referendum. It is not measuring support for i dependence itslef.

    Sorry, yes I got that. I was just thinking about the risk in assuming that people who say “don’t know” will split the same as those who had time to think about the question and cared to provide an answer. “25% don’t know” is a large number of potential spoilers.

  17. One change appears to be the UK government’s public recognition and focus on solving the question of the Irish border. Another story about a possible “breakthrough”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/15/brexit-uk-ministers-talk-up-irish-border-compromise-as-key-to-deal

    Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, and the home secretary, Priti Patel, accepted the Irish border was likely to be a key to any potential agreement.

    …there has been intense focus on ways he could find a plan acceptable to Brussels but which would not be seen by Conservative MPs as a betrayal

    “We have to leave and we have to leave with a deal on 31 October, and there’s no point right now trying to prejudge the discussions that are taking place.”

    Is the Benn thing having an effect or this was always “the plan”. Whatever the motivation though, perhaps all sides might now be looking for something to paper over a hole, or serve as a fig leaf, or…something. As was pointed out to me some time ago, both the UK and the EU can afford some leakage at the Irish border, and both the UK and EU would be better off with a deal than without one.

  18. Late riser

    Polls among English Tory voters showed the majority were happy to lose Scotland from the UK in order to Brexit. I’m sure even more would be happy to lose NI.

    It’s possible a form of the Irish backstop may be on the cards. They can lose the DUP if they get Labour brexiteers..

  19. swamprat

    I regret not having a good History Teacher at school (so-not-my-fault), but in my ignorance it feels as if changes of the magnitude of Scottish independence or Irish re-unification usually involve wars. So perhaps there is hope for us all. And perhaps in hindsight (long after I’m gone) the Bumbling British approach to such things will seem “not-so-bad-considering”.

  20. Ho!

    Lib Dems pledge to revoke Brexit without referendum

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/15/lib-dems-pledge-to-revoke-brexit-without-referendum

    I don’t see an election before October 31, but the Lib-Dems have chosen a stance.

    The Liberal Democrats have overwhelmingly approved the party’s plan of going into an election with the promise to revoke Brexit without a referendum, despite warnings from delegates at their annual conference that it risked alienating some voters.

    Something about feeling one’s oats… And the ball is suddenly on Labour’s court.

  21. “LibDem principles are funny things.

    They are just as likely to adopt hard Brexit if the Tories offer them Government.”

    Yep. Just like their embrace of feckless Dave’s austerity in 2010. Sad

  22. There’s a new (for me) take on nationalism in this article. It argues that the EU could be seen as a guarantor of nationhood rather than another imperial power.
    https://news.sky.com/story/wexit-wales-could-opt-for-independence-if-westminster-does-not-redeem-itself-11809164

    In Britain this affects the various independence movements.

    the perception has taken root that Ireland’s voice and power has been massively enhanced during the Brexit standoff and that the EU’s wholehearted support has helped see off its larger, more powerful neighbour. The EU is seen as a means of equalising power between larger and smaller states and is thus attractive to nationalist movements in Britain.

    In the rest of Europe it affects the smaller states.

    …curiously, the Brexit process has somewhat rehabilitated the EU’s reputation with regards to its treatment of smaller states. Nationalists across Europe, far from seeing Brussels as yet another imperial power seeking to erode their national identities, have come in recent decades to see it as a guarantor of nationhood and the rights of small states.

    Hmm.

  23. In the light of my previous post, PM Johnson, by casting Britain in the role of The Hulk, could just have reminded the Scots, Irish and Welsh of the Empire that was England. Rather than a unifying feeling of pride, Johnson might be pushing the non-English UK nations away. (And in our current cartoon universe I’m waiting for “The Borg” to be trotted out in reference to the EU.)

  24. Ironically the UK crashing out of the European Union without a deal, would be in best long term interests of the nation. Because the economic disaster which would occur, would trigger a massive backlash against the Brexit movement.

  25. I’m not sure if this is still an active thread, but it still seems like the best spot for a couple of observations on Brexit.

    Re today’s non-appearance by Boris Johnson with Xavier Bettel, which I interpret as Johnson couldn’t be bothered making the press conference work. I wonder if the UK (deep down) don’t understand what the EU is. Ergo, the UK don’t belong and they are doing the right thing by leaving. (Unless pissing of Luxembourg was the intent so an extension becomes less likely. Or it was just another clumsy effort by a clumsy man. Or…)

    Re the softening stance on a NI only backstop, the irony is that a customs border between N.I. and the rest of the UK is what I think the EU proposed at the start and was explicitly rejected by May’s government. (Was it a “Red Line”?) If this now goes ahead Johnson and his associates could be painted as “betraying the union” by their political foes. It also implicitly accepts that a bit of customs leakage is the lesser evil when compared with the risk of restarting “the troubles”. And could it also be a step towards a peaceful reunification of Ireland?

  26. Matt31 @ #93 Tuesday, September 17th, 2019 – 12:43 pm

    A Northern Ireland only backstop would face an inevitable legal challenge, as explained in the below article. https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/latest-news/ni-only-backstop-would-face-fundamental-legal-challenge-1-9069613

    Thanks Matt31. Isn’t this one of the reasons why May rejected the idea? The other, political, reason being coalition with the DUP. It’s why I thought this may be a step toward a unified Ireland, or the beginning of the end of Northern Ireland as an entity. But maybe Johnson’s team has found another loophole, or don’t care because as long as Brexit happens someone else can clean up any mess with Article Six.

    (In case anyone is having trouble reading the article you might be able to read it here: https://outline.com/k39Xdt)

  27. I have to make a comment on *The Sun*. What a bunch of shit stirrers. Compare these two descriptions.
    *The Sun*

    Boris Johnson dodged an “ambush” after an EU boss chose to hold their press conference near furious anti-Brexit protesters. Xavier Bettel ilked the whooping cheers and applause from the pro-Remain mob after ’empty-chairing’ the PM in a petty move in front of bemused reporters. No10 said the PM’s aides asked to move the press conference away from the baying crowd – described as a “large Remain gathering” – but the request was denied by their hosts. A Downing Street source said: “We repeatedly asked for it to be moved into the press centre but they refused and said it needed to be outside – by the loud protesters. We took a decision to take a media engagement at the residence instead.” The sourced added: “We went to Luxembourg to see Juncker, not him.”
    ..
    The Brexiteer told The Sun: “The Prime Minister of Luxembourg presides offer(sic) a nation of under 591,000 people – about two thirds the size of Staffordshire.

    *The Guardian*

    Boris Johnson was left humiliated and his claims of progress in the Brexit negotiations in tatters after a chaotic visit to Luxembourg ended in the prime minister being mocked by a fellow European leader for cancelling a press appearance to avoid protesters.

    It is understood Downing Street had asked that the scheduled press conference with Bettel be moved inside away from a crowd of around 75 noisy protesters but that the Luxembourg government rejected the request.

    An official in the Luxembourg government official said that they had to decline Downing Street’s request for the press conference to be inside as there was not a room large enough for the media: “We tried to change it but on such short notice we had to work with what we had – it really wasn’t our intention to embarrass Mr Johnson.”

    If this is an example of the “journalism” serving the Brits no wonder their angry and confused. (And the comment about the small size of Luxembourg adds weight to my feeling that the UK doesn’t “get” the EU.)

  28. The slimey LibDems have “policies” on two referendums/a.

    Lets compare them:

    1. 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum: the results are immutable. If you were too young to vote or you have changed your mind, too bad. Should the SNP get 95% on a policy of a second referendum, the Scottish people will under no circumstances be given another right to choose. (And in a Scottish Holyrood election under proportional representation where representation fairly closely reflects votes and a majority government requires over 50% of votes.)

    2. 2016 European Membership Referendum: the results should be ignored and not implemented. If there is a LibDem Government the whole Brexit project will be discarded without any recourse to the voters. (And in a Westminster election under FPTP single member electorates it’s quite possible to have majority government on less than 40% of the vote).

  29. Late Riser

    I think you are spot on re May’s original rejection of the backstop. I think you’re also on the money that for Borris Johnson, it might be a case of get a deal, and if it is challenged successfully in the courts, then so be it, after all, the UK would be well and truly out of the EU by the time any court decision was made anyway. In any case, it is difficult to get a handle on where things are. There’s constant speculation of a softening of both the Conservatives and the DUP’s stance on the backstop, but this generally ends up being squashed. My own guess is that there’s little to no progress being made at all at this stage, and that no deal on October 31 remains the most likely outcome.

  30. Late Riser:

    It also implicitly accepts that a bit of customs leakage is the lesser evil when compared with the risk of restarting “the troubles”.

    Would anyone seriously argue the contrary?

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