This site’s slow-moving Call of the Board series, which takes a closer look at the results for every seat at the May 18 election, now makes it to regional Victoria. This area once enjoyed its fair share of marginal seats (see Ballarat, Bendigo and Monash/McMillan below), but now has only Corangamite to offer in the way of reliable election night seats-to-watch. Nonetheless, there were a few interesting things going on in the results for those who cared to look. (And while you’re here, note also the post on Brexit developments immediately below this one).
Ballarat (Labor 11.0%; 3.6% swing to Labor): Labor has been strengthening in this once highly marginal seat since Catherine King gained it at the 2001 election, at which it was the only seat in the country to shift from Coalition to Labor (with some help from the retirement of Michael Ronaldson, later a Senator). The only serious speed bump in that time was a 6.8% swing to the Liberals in 2013, reducing her margin to 4.9%, which she has now almost made good with successive swings of 2.4% and 3.6%. The Liberal primary vote on this occasion was down 4.0% despite the absence of the Nationals, who polled 4.2% in 2016, although they did face new competition on the right from the United Australia Party, which polled 4.6%.
Bendigo (Labor 9.0%; 5.2% swing to Labor): Victoria’s other regional city seat has followed a similar pattern to Ballarat over time: won by Labor from the Liberals in 1998, retained only narrowly in 2004 and 2013, and now looking secure again after successive swings of 2.5% and 5.2% in 2016 and 2019. The current member, Lisa Chesters, has now almost made up the 8.2% swing she suffered when she came to the seat on Steve Gibbons’ retirement in 2013. The Liberal primary vote was down 6.1% amid an overload of competition on the right, with One Nation, Conservative National and Rise Up Australia all in the field alongside the ubiquitous United Australia Party.
Casey (Liberal 4.6%; 0.1% swing to Liberal): Located on Melbourne’s eastern outskirts and held for the Liberals by the Speaker, Tony Smith, Casey was one of many Victorian seats that looked promising for Labor after the state election, but singularly failed to deliver on the day. Smith actually picked up a very slightly swing on two-party preferred, and none of the primary vote swings were particularly significant. Labor tended to do better in the more urbanised western end of the electorate, particularly in those parts of it newly added from La Trobe in the redistribution.
Corangamite (LABOR NOTIONAL GAIN 1.1%; 1.0% swing to Labor): Corangamite was designated as a notional Labor seat by the barest possible margin, so whoever received the swing was almost certain to win the seat. That proved to be Labor’s Libby Coker, just, in a result perfectly in line with the state average. Defeated Liberal member Sarah Henderson picked up a few swings in the booths newly added to the electorate on the Bellarine Peninsula, but the Great Ocean Road swung to Labor, reflecting its affluent and educated sea-changer demographic. The Greens were down 3.0% on the primary vote, as voters situated in the state’s south-west failed to warm to a candidate called Simon Northeast.
Corio (Labor 10.3%; 2.1% swing to Labor): Labor’s Richard Marles picked up 4.2% on the primary vote and 2.1% on two-party preferred, the former assisted by a small field of four candidates. The Liberals picked up some swings in Geelong’s down-market north, but the city centre and its surrounds went solidly to Labor.
Flinders (Liberal 5.6%; 1.4% swing to Labor): One of many disappointments for Labor was their failure to seriously threaten Greg Hunt in an area that had swung forcefully their way at the state election. Hunt was also little troubled by Julia Banks, who managed 13.8% of the primary vote, well behind Labor on 24.7%. Banks’s presence cut into the vote share for Liberal, Labor and the Greens – Hunt was down 3.8% to 46.7%, and needed preferences to win the seat for the first time since he came to it in 2001.
Gippsland (Nationals 16.7%; 1.5% swing to Labor): For reasons not immediately apparent, Labor was up 3.0% on the primary vote and cut slightly into what remains a secure margin for Nationals member Darren Chester.
Indi (Independent 1.4% versus Liberal; 4.1% swing to Liberal): As a number of highly trumpeted independents failed to live up to the hype elsewhere, Helen Haines performed a remarkable feat in retaining the independent mantle of Cathy McGowan. Haines’ primary vote of 32.4% was only slightly short of McGowan’s 34.8% on her re-election in 2016, although the Liberals put up a stronger show after gouging half of the Nationals vote. An interesting feature of the result was the 7.7% swing to the Liberals on two-party-preferred versus Labor, suggesting Haines’ preferences favoured the Liberals more strongly than did McGowan’s.
La Trobe (Liberal 4.5%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): A swing to the Liberals in Melbourne marginals was not a feature of too many pre-election predictions, but such was the outcome in La Trobe. Both major parties were up slightly on the primary vote amid a smaller field of candidates than 2016.
Mallee (Nationals 16.2%; 3.6% swing to Labor): Vacated with the demise of Andrew Broad’s two-term career, this was retained by the Nationals against a challenge from the Liberals, as it was in 2013 when Broad succeeded John Forrest. Liberal candidate Serge Petrovich actually fell out of the preference candidate before Labor, despite outpolling them 18.8% to 15.7% on the primary vote, and his preferences duly delivered a large winning margin to Nationals candidate Anne Webster. Webster would likely have won the seat even if Petrovich had survived to the final count, given her 27.9% to 18.8% advantage on the primary vote.
McEwen (Labor 5.0%; 1.0% swing to Liberal): Despite being an area of dynamic growth, particularly around Mernda and Doreen at Melbourne’s northern edge, McEwen turned in a largely static result on this occasion. This was in contrast to its form at the five elections from 2004 to 2016, when two-party swings ranged from 4.1% to 9.0%. Both major parties were down slightly on the primary vote as One Nation took to the field, scoring 5.9%, and Labor member Rob Mitchell’s two-party margin was slightly clipped after a blowout win in 2016.
Monash (Liberal 7.4%; 0.2% swing to Labor): The solid margin built up by Russell Broadbent since 2004 in the seat formerly known as McMillan was little disturbed, although the 7.6% recorded by One Nation took a 3.6% bite out of his primary vote. A noteworthy feature of the result was a heavy swing to the Liberals in the Latrobe Valley towns of Moe and Newborough, a pattern reflected in coal and electricity producing areas across the country.
Nicholls (Nationals 20.0%; 2.5% swing to Labor): After a three-cornered contest in 2016, in which Damian Drum gained the seat for the Nationals on the retirement of Liberal member Sharman Stone, the Liberals vacated the field in Nicholls (formerly Murray), and Drum retained the seat with a majority of the primary vote. One Nation polled 11.3%, easily the best result of the five seats they contested in Victoria.
Wannon (Liberal 10.4%; 1.2% swing to Liberal): Liberal member Dan Tehan picked up slight favourable swings on both the primary and two-party vote. Former Triple J presenter Alex Dyson polled 10.4% as an independent.
We stayed for a year in Paris a decade ago and it was already like that.
The core problem is the vast bulk of the french population cannot envisage any sort of frenchness that includes arab descent and/or muslim religion.
Hmm. To drop a nuclear bomb on this hurricane, or not to drop a bomb on it? 😉
New York: US President Donald Trump has cancelled a planned trip to Poland to remain in the country to monitor Hurricane Dorian, which could be the worst hurricane to hit Florida in more than 25 years.
The rapidly intensifying hurricane, now classed as a potential category four storm, could hit the President’s Mar-a-Lago and Doral resorts in South Florida.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-cancels-poland-trip-as-hurricane-dorian-approaches-mar-a-lago-20190830-p52me6.html
Hey, Dorian could be the Cat 4 that whacks Mar-el-Lago!
This is yuuuuuuuuuuuge!
Poland can go fuck itself.
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-ne-hurricane-dorian-forecast-track-20190829-iu4344ej3je3njwlralotouyvq-story.html
Boerwar,
Do you think there has been a concerted effort by the immigrants to assimilate or integrate?
While I did find some of the culturally French to be arrogant and rude I also found the males of the Arab/Muslim group to be surly and aggressive and disrespectful of my wife and teenage daughter.
Karma is a bitch, isn’t it Boerwar? Or is that Mother Nature, sister of the Climate? 🙂
I have no idea what this is about. So why not jump in?
I remember a night club in Darling Harbour frequented by arab types (I wont get into the debate about if Lebanese are arabs or not – some were lebanese, some Syrian…). And white teenage girls (I am not 100% sure they were all over 18, but the bouncers seemed to think so) were all over them like a rash. B@st@rds.
I also have heard of white Christian men who arent very nice to women and girls. I also have heard of white Christian men who arent very nice to young boys.
And finally. Milat. I have been to his brothers house in Hill Top. Creepy.
I also found the males of the Arab/Muslim group to be surly and aggressive and disrespectful of my wife and teenage daughter.
___________________________
Take ’em for a stroll down Franga mate.
‘Bucephalus says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 4:21 pm
Boerwar,
Do you think there has been a concerted effort by the immigrants to assimilate or integrate?
While I did find some of the culturally French to be arrogant and rude I also found the males of the Arab/Muslim group to be surly and aggressive and disrespectful of my wife and teenage daughter.’
1. It is complex. That is to say that no all muslim and non muslim french groups are the same or even similar.
2. It is the result of a couple of centuries of interactions both at home and abroad.
3. While most Australians have at least an inkling that our history vis a vis Indigenous people was bad, few Australians have any notion at all about how very bad the french were as colonizers. In this context, of these, the last and possibly worst was the way the french behaved in Algeria. This has many dimensions – some weird but almost none at all worthy.
Have a look at how De Gaulle the french military and subsequently metropolitan France treated the Harkis – and these were the FRIENDs of the French! (It was the french military which defied de Gaulle and saved the Harkis).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harki
4. French policing has a long tradition of brutality. It has been especially brutal towards arabs and muslims. See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_massacre_of_1961
5. Socio-economic and geographical separation have reinforced the problem. Several major areas in the banlieux (the ‘suburbs’ of Paris proper) are arab/muslim majority areas. These are marked by poverty. Every New Year’s Eve there is a major riot in which the inhabitants of the banlieux burn several thousand cars.
https://www.thelocal.fr/20180102/is-the-famous-french-tradition-of-torching-cars-dying-out
6. France has a rich tradition of ultra right wing catholicism that has a millenium old hatred of Islam.
7. On the arab muslim side the behaviour of metropolitan France enables the arsehole end of their politicians and killers as well.
8. Reaction begets reaction begets reaction.
9. French political elites appear to be incapable of formulating a constructive national response, let alone implementing it.
But most of all, IMO, and I discussed this with as many french people as I could while we were there, is that there is an absence of any strong sense of multi-culturalism as an ideal. Australia does not realize just how good we are at this, and just how valuable it is, either. The racist dog whistlers in the Coalition literally don’t know what they were playing with, although Christchurch seems to have been a bit of an eye opener for them. I should say that the enforcement agencies in Australia have been particularly nifty at developing good relations with local populations to isolate the extreme ratbags.
This has involved de facto a co-operative approach which is diametrically opposed to the brutalist posturing of paras operating infantry assault weapons on the Rue St Denis and of the flics when you get on the wrong side of them.
Oh, and as for attitudes to wife, sisters in law and neices, we never had a single problem in the whole year. Not one.
We went to the St Denis markets, skirting the brewing riot between the Le Pen provocateurs and the local islamic response group. One of my nieces, unambiguously a beauty, received several shouted marriage proposals amidst much chiacking. She took it all with grace and humour. We had a hoot.
We used sometimes to go for lunch in some of the cafes in arab majority areas. Never any problem. The total language barriers were always negotiated with good grace on both sides.
I guess it all depends on the circumstances but with a bit of humour, grace, and engagement we never once had the slightest difficulty.
Perhaps, because we were Aussies, we were open to it and we were good at it… without even realizing that this was unusual.
As for our relations with the french, it was fantastic. The best. We were invited to stay in a chateau for a fortnight. We were given a cottage in the Pyrenees for a fortnight. We had bibulous nights on the calvados in Normandy. We enjoyed lunches and dinners in the homes.
(We had just the one rude person in the whole year.)
We had invitations to translate at events, and to give talks to old people’s homes.
We had numerous hilarious chats in the backs of buses.
I have a deep knowledge of European history, including french history, politics, literature and culture.
We were both pretty nifty at the french language and we were sticklers for french forms of politeness.
(I did have one french lady pull me up on a rue because my trouser cuff was hung up in my sock, and I was properly grateful for her solicitude.)
I had one professor from one of the hautes ecoles, after a nifty discussion of ancient persian cultures and languages en francais, look at me and say, ‘Monsieur, tu es tres cultivee.’
Quel honneur!
And what fun we had.
Think of the $ billions he could arrange to collect in US government disaster aid if the roof blew off Mar-a-Lago.
Buce ………..if emigrants to France from their former colonies are rude and offhand, I would argue they have assimilated into French culture pretty well. On the other hand, I have rarely come across the stereotyped “rude” French person…….having found most to be helpful, most of the time, despite my very poor school French………………..Paris, like London can be a tough place………………
bucephalus:
The Tamil Tigers (LTTE) were founded in 1976 (and then on the basis of a previous similar organisation) and there is no reason to believe they eschewed assassinating Prime Ministers or ‘Executive Presidents’ at that time (J.S Jayawardene was either PM or Executive President).
Justice Gleeson in 1991 ordered the acquittal of that plonker Mr. Anderson (now Dr. Anderson) on the basis of extremely poor conduct by the prosecution (and the notoriety thus gained formed the basis of Dr. Anderson’s academic career, recently terminated by the University of Sydney).
Additionally the Commonwealth from 1992 (I think, certainly either the Hawke or Keating government) and continuing from then on has blocked attempts by the NSW Parliament (in 1991 and 1995) to find out what happened. Note that these were bipartisan actions in both cases (and at the Commonwealth level this signifies something other than domestic politics going on)
The whole thing is totally unsatisfactory. The Ananda Marga in Australia subsequently have appeared to be a fairly conventional cult principally interested in money, and it’s quite unlikely that the view apparently formed by Mr. Fraser’s 1978 Cabinet (they that were attempting to foment a revolution in Australia) was accurate. One of the theories advanced by prosecution of Mr. Anderson (inappropriately so, according to Justice Gleeson) was that the supposed bomber (Mr. Pederick?) mistook J.S. Jawawardene for the India PM (who was the supposed target). It would make more sense (and would be much less elaborate) if J.S. Jawawardene was the actual target and LTTE the actual bombers.
This really is a worry. They are conferring supernatural powers on Trump now?
C@tmomma says: Friday, August 30, 2019 at 4:12 pm
Hmm. To drop a nuclear bomb on this hurricane, or not to drop a bomb on it?
**********************************************
What Mar-A-Lago might look like if the waters rise too much – only positive is it might drown and get rid of those reported Bed Bugs – Donald will pocket plenty of $ in aid no matter what
Shouldn’t Trump just go down and tell the Hurricane to turn around and trash Commie Cuba?
The Courier-Mail says a YouGov Galaxy poll for Queensland (yes, I know) has Annastacia Palaszczuk’s lead as preferred premier going from a lot to a little. Nothing on voting intention yet.
Trump is doing so badly in polls he needs a hurricane – as he is so adept at managing a crisis and showing compassion.
Highly rated Quinnipiac poll has Biden up 54-38 over Trump. 16pt lead.
Yes yes, very early days. But trawl through the Obama v Romney polls or Clinton v Trump and you almost never see this big a lead.
Another well rated poll has Biden up 10pts in Michigan (which matches other recent polls there and nearby).
Trump is on the nose.
Dorian may be heading towards Melbourne. You heard it first on Bludger.
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-ne-hurricane-dorian-forecast-track-20190829-iu4344ej3je3njwlralotouyvq-story.html
I’m interested to get BB’s (and others’) perspective(s) on the following:
– https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-30/paedophile-gary-tipping-set-to-be-released/11464216
Particularly in relation to:
EGT
The Court’s confidence seems to hang on:
“In particular, the court has had regard to the strict home detention and electronic monitoring conditions that can be imposed to ensure the safety of the community.’
Interesting Kristina Keneally’s call for ALP head office to be vacated.
Looks like the calls of some far-sighted PB posters like nath and Rex Douglas have been ahead of the game.
I will be interested to see who is the first ALP politician to heed the call of some on PB for the need for an ALP Truth and Reconciliation Commission.
Another of your personas nath
Kay Jay
Thank you for your technical expertise.
Hopefully you will now see the pic of Lyle Shelton when he visited Waratah Village on a Mission. This was just after he had taken his vegemite sandwich and a tropical fruit popper for his elevensies (not to be confused with Joe Hockey’s eleventy numerical system).
I am sad to hear that you are confined to barracks and that you didn’t get to receive his blessing.
If my memory is correct, Waratah Village is not too far from where Billy Graham’s Missionery tent (not to be confused with his missionery position) was pitched just a few decades ago, near the current Gully Line Stadium.
IMG_5050.jpg
https://www.theage.com.au/national/this-is-not-a-religious-freedom-bill-it-s-a-licence-to-hate-20190829-p52m5h.html
Kay Jay
Failed again.
Back to the drawing board.
CNN is taking a fairly hard line on Trump these days:
Contd…
I don’t think L’arse and nath have been seen together, nor their troika mundo. How they must sit around and guffaw at their handiwork!
Maybe a Truth and Reconcilition Commission is needed at 2GB?
By Laura Chung
August 30, 2019 — 5.18pm
Supermarket giant Coles has joined the advertising boycott against Alan Jones’ radio program on 2GB following the host’s inflammatory comments about New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.
A Coles spokesperson said: “Coles values diversity, respect and actively promotes the rights of all of our team members and our customers.
“We stopped advertising on the Alan Jones program on Friday 16th August and have subsequently stopped advertising on 2GB.”
https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/coles-withdraws-ads-from-2gb-after-alan-jones-controversial-comments-20190830-p52mhq.html
Trump’s personal assistant quits. He must be quite paranoid about who is friend and who is foe.
Kay Jay
And here from 1995 or thereabouts is a handsome couple in white T-shirts at the 3.00 mark, just above the left hand placard. This songwriter is now 63 and in recent years after a heart attack and and his grandchildren growing up he is tending to write some “life-nostalgic” songs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vd3xyOGzRw
lizzie
Also feeds neatly into the conservatives anti abortion stance.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/30/religious-discrimination-bill-attacked-extraordinary-foray-culture-wars
And look at the supporters, says it all really.
mikehilliard
If even Ruddock saw no need for a Commissioner, this is all a big furphy. The RWNJs have far too much power.
I suppose this nonsense is to be the plot of your next film? Aspiring to be your most boring to date, a masterpiece of mind-numbing mundanity and the apotheosis of your tedious trade?
Perhaps it will star Nicole Kidman as Kristina Keneally, or better yet, as Rex Douglas?
Although I am on nausea-suppressants, I’ll agree to report vomiting at least thrice if you’ll undertake not to make such a film.
They value and respect diversity yet only stopped advertising on Alan Jones program a couple weeks ago?
lizzie
Yeah, May 18 opened the proverbial Pandoras Box.
It’s utterly disgusting that Larkin was approached to be poet laureate:
They fuck you up, your mum and dad.
They may not mean to, but they do.
They fill you with the faults they had
And add some extra, just for you.
But they were fucked up in their turn
By fools in old-style hats and coats,
Who half the time were soppy-stern
And half at one another’s throats.
Man hands on misery to man.
It deepens like a coastal shelf.
Get out as early as you can,
And don’t have any kids yourself.
No it didn’t.
But on the good side at least we know where the extra apostrophes appearing in various others’ posts have been coming from.
Pandora’s Box.
Happy?
E. G. Theodore says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 6:31 pm
_____________________
My ALP Truth and Reconciliation film would be magnificent in its bleakness.
It reminds me of my personal favourite, Breaking the Waves with a young and hot Emily Watson before she got old and fat. It was a magnificent story of sad failure and dysfunction – like the ALP.
mikehilliard,
It’s a start.
More substantively, the trend since May 18 seems rapidly to be approaching the inevitability of the Hoover Administration.
mikehilliard says:
Friday, August 30, 2019 at 6:29 pm
I’m a Conservative and I’m not opposed to abortion per se.
So well named
Ghost who votes:
#YouGov / Galaxy Poll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 49 (-3) LNP 51 (+3) #qldpol #auspol
Then don’t have one Percy.
Captain Carnival Barker doesn’t understand the concept of apology except when he demands them for himself.
Perhaps however, this is the best summary of the report.
psyclaw
Friday, August 30th, 2019 – 6:26 pm
Comment #263
My favourite daughter Trish and I very often stop to view the gentleman pictured in your post.
Some benighted citizen took the trouble to smash off the reader’s right arm recently – much to the dismay of many. Just last week we chatted to a Granny who was being conducted around the Waratah Village precinct by her 3 year old grand daughter and who also stopped to view the reader.
I’m a little sad to hear that one of my most admired singer/songwriters has health problems – although another dear departed Australian icon said it best with his “such is life”.
So now it’s good night from me and goodnight to your and to all Poll Bludgers.
Sweet dreams. 📺💤