This site’s slow-moving Call of the Board series, which takes a closer look at the results for every seat at the May 18 election, now makes it to regional Victoria. This area once enjoyed its fair share of marginal seats (see Ballarat, Bendigo and Monash/McMillan below), but now has only Corangamite to offer in the way of reliable election night seats-to-watch. Nonetheless, there were a few interesting things going on in the results for those who cared to look. (And while you’re here, note also the post on Brexit developments immediately below this one).
Ballarat (Labor 11.0%; 3.6% swing to Labor): Labor has been strengthening in this once highly marginal seat since Catherine King gained it at the 2001 election, at which it was the only seat in the country to shift from Coalition to Labor (with some help from the retirement of Michael Ronaldson, later a Senator). The only serious speed bump in that time was a 6.8% swing to the Liberals in 2013, reducing her margin to 4.9%, which she has now almost made good with successive swings of 2.4% and 3.6%. The Liberal primary vote on this occasion was down 4.0% despite the absence of the Nationals, who polled 4.2% in 2016, although they did face new competition on the right from the United Australia Party, which polled 4.6%.
Bendigo (Labor 9.0%; 5.2% swing to Labor): Victoria’s other regional city seat has followed a similar pattern to Ballarat over time: won by Labor from the Liberals in 1998, retained only narrowly in 2004 and 2013, and now looking secure again after successive swings of 2.5% and 5.2% in 2016 and 2019. The current member, Lisa Chesters, has now almost made up the 8.2% swing she suffered when she came to the seat on Steve Gibbons’ retirement in 2013. The Liberal primary vote was down 6.1% amid an overload of competition on the right, with One Nation, Conservative National and Rise Up Australia all in the field alongside the ubiquitous United Australia Party.
Casey (Liberal 4.6%; 0.1% swing to Liberal): Located on Melbourne’s eastern outskirts and held for the Liberals by the Speaker, Tony Smith, Casey was one of many Victorian seats that looked promising for Labor after the state election, but singularly failed to deliver on the day. Smith actually picked up a very slightly swing on two-party preferred, and none of the primary vote swings were particularly significant. Labor tended to do better in the more urbanised western end of the electorate, particularly in those parts of it newly added from La Trobe in the redistribution.
Corangamite (LABOR NOTIONAL GAIN 1.1%; 1.0% swing to Labor): Corangamite was designated as a notional Labor seat by the barest possible margin, so whoever received the swing was almost certain to win the seat. That proved to be Labor’s Libby Coker, just, in a result perfectly in line with the state average. Defeated Liberal member Sarah Henderson picked up a few swings in the booths newly added to the electorate on the Bellarine Peninsula, but the Great Ocean Road swung to Labor, reflecting its affluent and educated sea-changer demographic. The Greens were down 3.0% on the primary vote, as voters situated in the state’s south-west failed to warm to a candidate called Simon Northeast.
Corio (Labor 10.3%; 2.1% swing to Labor): Labor’s Richard Marles picked up 4.2% on the primary vote and 2.1% on two-party preferred, the former assisted by a small field of four candidates. The Liberals picked up some swings in Geelong’s down-market north, but the city centre and its surrounds went solidly to Labor.
Flinders (Liberal 5.6%; 1.4% swing to Labor): One of many disappointments for Labor was their failure to seriously threaten Greg Hunt in an area that had swung forcefully their way at the state election. Hunt was also little troubled by Julia Banks, who managed 13.8% of the primary vote, well behind Labor on 24.7%. Banks’s presence cut into the vote share for Liberal, Labor and the Greens – Hunt was down 3.8% to 46.7%, and needed preferences to win the seat for the first time since he came to it in 2001.
Gippsland (Nationals 16.7%; 1.5% swing to Labor): For reasons not immediately apparent, Labor was up 3.0% on the primary vote and cut slightly into what remains a secure margin for Nationals member Darren Chester.
Indi (Independent 1.4% versus Liberal; 4.1% swing to Liberal): As a number of highly trumpeted independents failed to live up to the hype elsewhere, Helen Haines performed a remarkable feat in retaining the independent mantle of Cathy McGowan. Haines’ primary vote of 32.4% was only slightly short of McGowan’s 34.8% on her re-election in 2016, although the Liberals put up a stronger show after gouging half of the Nationals vote. An interesting feature of the result was the 7.7% swing to the Liberals on two-party-preferred versus Labor, suggesting Haines’ preferences favoured the Liberals more strongly than did McGowan’s.
La Trobe (Liberal 4.5%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): A swing to the Liberals in Melbourne marginals was not a feature of too many pre-election predictions, but such was the outcome in La Trobe. Both major parties were up slightly on the primary vote amid a smaller field of candidates than 2016.
Mallee (Nationals 16.2%; 3.6% swing to Labor): Vacated with the demise of Andrew Broad’s two-term career, this was retained by the Nationals against a challenge from the Liberals, as it was in 2013 when Broad succeeded John Forrest. Liberal candidate Serge Petrovich actually fell out of the preference candidate before Labor, despite outpolling them 18.8% to 15.7% on the primary vote, and his preferences duly delivered a large winning margin to Nationals candidate Anne Webster. Webster would likely have won the seat even if Petrovich had survived to the final count, given her 27.9% to 18.8% advantage on the primary vote.
McEwen (Labor 5.0%; 1.0% swing to Liberal): Despite being an area of dynamic growth, particularly around Mernda and Doreen at Melbourne’s northern edge, McEwen turned in a largely static result on this occasion. This was in contrast to its form at the five elections from 2004 to 2016, when two-party swings ranged from 4.1% to 9.0%. Both major parties were down slightly on the primary vote as One Nation took to the field, scoring 5.9%, and Labor member Rob Mitchell’s two-party margin was slightly clipped after a blowout win in 2016.
Monash (Liberal 7.4%; 0.2% swing to Labor): The solid margin built up by Russell Broadbent since 2004 in the seat formerly known as McMillan was little disturbed, although the 7.6% recorded by One Nation took a 3.6% bite out of his primary vote. A noteworthy feature of the result was a heavy swing to the Liberals in the Latrobe Valley towns of Moe and Newborough, a pattern reflected in coal and electricity producing areas across the country.
Nicholls (Nationals 20.0%; 2.5% swing to Labor): After a three-cornered contest in 2016, in which Damian Drum gained the seat for the Nationals on the retirement of Liberal member Sharman Stone, the Liberals vacated the field in Nicholls (formerly Murray), and Drum retained the seat with a majority of the primary vote. One Nation polled 11.3%, easily the best result of the five seats they contested in Victoria.
Wannon (Liberal 10.4%; 1.2% swing to Liberal): Liberal member Dan Tehan picked up slight favourable swings on both the primary and two-party vote. Former Triple J presenter Alex Dyson polled 10.4% as an independent.
Oppose Qld Labor’s Joh 2.0 anti-protest laws
https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/oppose-qld-labor%E2%80%99s-joh-20-anti-protest-laws
The Queensland Labor government’s decision to enact new anti-protest laws to protect new coal and gas projects is a reminder of who the government believes it is in power to serve.
Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s justifications for giving police more powers to treat protesters like criminals are eerily similar to those of notoriously authoritarian Nationals Premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen.
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Her efforts to make out that those who disagree with Adani’s coal mine in Central Queensland are somehow “sinister” reflects just how much influence the coal oligarchy wields over Queensland Labor.
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But as more people realise just how short the time frame to reduce carbon dioxide emissions is, they are also becoming active. This has led to more actions being organised which, in turn, is attracting a greater range of people.
Palaszczuk may try to make out that these people are “sinister”, but the reality is they are ordinary people who, perhaps, have been prompted to protest by their children or grandchildren who are already taking peaceful, disruptive action. They sense all other avenues have been exhausted and that this is their best bet to get their views across.
From same WSWS site less than a month before the previously posted
When Jen Robinson gave a legal briefing on behalf of her client J Assange to a bunch of parliamentarians in Canberra, it was only former and current Greens MPs Scott Ludlam and Peter Whish-Wilson that accompanied her for a later presser calling on the Australian govt to raise the issue with the US and bring J A home. There’s been regular comments or statements over years particularly from Scott.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/08/01/robi-a01.html
Problems with getting research funding in the land of Oz? Try changing your name to Dave, could be a winner if past research is on point
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2017-11-24/australian-research-has-a-daversity-problem/9178786
From my completely non-professional understanding, based on recently reading this excellent fact-check of myths around Mabo and Native Title legislation, is that once extinguished, native title can never be reversed, and claims can only be made of crown land where native title has not been extinguished. Lest everyone could lose their backyards as the prophecy propagated by the reactionaries.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-29/fact-check-mabo-decision-high-court-dispossession-pauline-hanson/11342504
I was thinking Glen Robbins as the ALP Campaign Manager for Indi .
Leah Purcell as the preselection rival for Indi.
The casting is becoming much clearer.
Lars
Albanese appears to be a “dead man walking”. Shorten still harbours leadership / pm ambitions. Will he be able to rise from the ashes as did Howard? Not beyond the realm of possibility.
Do you think Aidan Gillen will be available for Shorten?
I would say Pegasus, the problem (to paraphrase) Paul Keating is with the horse not the jockey. Albo would make a fine PM but the ALP is fundamentally broken and has been since 1996. No Labor leader has been able to deal with the systemic issues since that time.
Albo is a good man but the ALP consumes and destroys all within it.
An excellent choice OC.
Oh dogs. Is this place slipping into “Shorten made a Speech” idiocy??
NIcole Kidman can play me. She has the range.
..it will, alas, be a small part, mainly consisting of a five minute talk with our candiate, making soothing noises and trying to work through his disappointment so he could face another day campaigning.
Finally we have an admission that zoomster was denied the selfie. Phew! It has taken long enough and I was worried that we wouldn’t get there!
Aiden Gillen makes a lot of sense. An international star always helps with the funding and hopefully he can do a passable Australian accent.
You can just see him stoking the fires of zoomster’s outrage about the selfie incident in a discrete one on one scene.
Brilliant Lars. You truly are an auteur.
nath
‘Finally we have an admission that zoomster was denied the selfie.’
No, we don’t. I talked about the role consisting of me soothing our candidate when he didn’t get the selfie.
You can’t even read.
Anyway, keep on going with this boys. I don’t know why it amuses you, it doesn’t bother me*, and if it keeps you from bugging somebody else, it’s probably worth it.
*because I win.
zoomster, these are minor facts. This is a creative work, and many of us suspect it was really you anyway. Just roll with it. The film is being made and the best you can do is see if you can get any work out of your soon to be found infamy.
I am thinking I’ll splice in a few story lines – with a theme of ordinary people encountering the political process and shattering disappointment.
I would like to add a scene of c@tmomma’s meeting with Bob Hawke too! That scene writes itself too!
nath says:
Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 3:44 pm
…”BARGING THROUGH THE DOOR IS THE INDOMITABLE ALP CANDIDATE FOR INDI”…
Could you squeeze an “aged” or “time worn” in there somehow?
Oh, that’s OK, nath. I’m sure when my lawyers have finished, I’ll make a motza.
Not Sure
He’s only twenty five!!
lizzie @ #601 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 4:18 pm
Here is the reality …
It does not matter now about the rights and wrongs of any native title now, or forever. Freehold extinguishes it. And on what basis did they do this?
This basis: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-02/adani-accused-of-paying-people-to-stack-meeting-on-deal/9218246
I guess this is slightly more humane than issuing smallpox infected blankets 🙁
What a pity FKelly is still in the seat.
Lars will apply the Dogma 95 rules to his upcoming movie, so no special effects, no fancy sets or elaborate costumes, no music unless its part of the plot, no special lighting … also, the director must not be credited.
There is an article in the FT, titled “Javid fury after adviser sacked and marched out of Downing Street”
This after Mr. Johnson took over the apartment in No 11 (the Chancellor’s residence) instead of that in No 10, due to No 11 being more suited to the exercise of his libido.
FT subscribers (only) can read it at:
– https://on.ft.com/2LggDW0
Note that my FT subscription (or any FT subscription, as far as I know) does not permit text to be re-published.
However I am reminded of:
Often attributed to Captain Bligh, who I believe is an ancestor of Malcolm Bligh Turnbull.
Now the first person to be called Speaker (of the House of Commons) was one Sir Peter de la Mare, the Speaker of the “Good Parliament” (as it has from the time been remembered by the people) of 1376 who led the Common’s in opposition to the HM’s Executive Government (notionally of Edward III, but in fact dominated by John of Gaunt, his fourth son), initially with the support of Edward the Black Prince (first son and a national hero, and an outstandingly successful warlord) who unfortunately was terminally ill with dysentery and died later in 1376.
Amongst other provocations, the Good Parliament (and the Speaker) had the temerity to arrest (and order seclusion of) King Edward’s mistress, as well as several miscreants in the executive. So much for the Speaker being required to be neutral in a dispute between Parliament and Executive Government.
And the precedent is obvious: Speaker Bercow should arrest the latest mistress of King Johnson!!! After all, she’s obviously guilty of something since she’s currently barred from visiting the United States (something for Mr Trump to Tweet about) as the US considers Somaliland to be be part of Somalia (perhaps not something for Mr Trump to Tweet about; too confusing)
lizzie @ #601 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 4:18 pm
In news that surprises no one. Anything for a headline to send out with the latest Greens email.
Turnbull is not a descendant of Bligh but he is a descendant of the Hawkesbury River settlers who Bligh supported and who, in return, attempted to support him during the Rum Rebellion. His family tradition is to have Bligh as a middle name
If you came upon this blog for the first time today and read the inane contributions of nath and Lars von Trier, you’d swear you’d ended up on one of 8chan’s puerile boards.
Oakeshott Country @ #628 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 5:32 pm
How about Anna Bligh?
C@
nath and his sock puppets….
Fwark me! The common room at Melbourne YoungLib HQ must be ankle deep after the nath LVT wankfest
sprocket_
That assumes a certain level of capability.
C@tmomma @ #629 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 3:32 pm
The mute button is a glorious thing.
zoomster @ #631 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 5:35 pm
Sad.
But oh how I lolled when I remembered how, in the beginning of nath’s residency here, he tried to convince us all that he was an academic doing research work with Mr Bowe. 😆
Diogenes:
As I understand it, the main issue relates teenage rugby players who commit suicide at a=n abnormal rate after realising they are gay. Presumably there is statistical support for this, and in any event RA apparently has identified it as an issue and the driver for their code of conduct:
– Mr Folau (apparently) agreed to a contract to represent RA, including its code of conduct;
– It quite clearly established that the code of conduct part of the role of modern sports-people extends 24×7. For example, Rugby League players who engage in grossly indecent public (or effectively public) sexual behaviour do not normally do it on the field (except perhaps for John Hopoate), but are nevertheless subject to sanction;
– At some point, Mr Folau (or his church) decided that he longer had the capacity to fulfil the code of conduct, and ceased to do so;
– It is (for example) not unlawful termination for an employer of manual labourers to terminate the contract of such employee (the manual labourers) who have (at any time after the commencement of employment) lost (typically through injury) the physical capacity to perform manual labour as manual labour is an “inherent requirement” of the job contracted for.
In some better news..
David Marin-Guzman
United Voice and National Union of Workers members have voted to merge into the biggest blue-collar union in the country.
The Australian Electoral Commission declared on Friday that 95 per cent of the two unions’ voting membership had backed the creation of the United Workers Union, which will represent more than 150,000 workers.
The new union will cover key strategic points in the economy including warehouses, healthcare, defence, manufacturing and food supply chains, and represent members who often work low-paid and insecure jobs.
NUW secretary Tim Kennedy said the United Workers Union would be a significant voice for workers in both the public and private sectors.
“We represent workers at the sharp end of social and economic inequality, in areas such as education, logistics, cleaning, building services, health and aged care,” he said.
If only Morrison, Dutton and my Bible bashing David Coleman had paid more attention in Sunday School. This disgraceful persecution of the Tamil family is unChristian.
When a stranger sojourns with you in your land, you shall not do him wrong. You shall treat the stranger who sojourns with you as the native among you, and you shall love him as yourself – Leviticus 19:33-34.
C@tmomma @ #627 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 5:28 pm
I am not a Green, and am pro-Labor, but even I can smell that something reeks about this latest submission by Qld Labor to the Adani coal-driven steamroller 🙁
P1
Did you read the whole ABC article on the freehold decision? It was agreed by the Native Title claimants.
Anna Bligh is a descendant of the captain. Apparently 4Xgreat grand daughter
sprocket_
I read that there was some underhand work by Adani in the survey.
Oakeshott country @ #641 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 6:00 pm
Thanks for that, OC.
sprocket_,
Could you help me please? Do you know which union covers workers who care for clients in Group Homes covered by the NDIS? And which award they are covered by? 🙂
Another one about to bite the dust:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/bolton-sidelined-from-afghanistan-policy-as-his-standing-with-trump-falters/2019/08/30/79651256-8888-483b-9fd1-c47a2cfadab7_story.html
As I understand it, the main issue relates teenage rugby players who commit suicide at a=n abnormal rate after realising they are gay. Presumably there is statistical support for this, and in any event RA apparently has identified it as an issue and the driver for their code of conduct
This is the first I have heard of this – do you have a source. My understanding was that it was more an issue of sponsors – Qantas (a partner of Emirates!) in particular
Both Rugbies are relatively accepting of homosexuality – certainly more than AFL where this still seems to be an issue
I’ve long said that the loud-mouthed, muscular christians who try to assert their version of christianity upon others are not christians, but christianists.
sprocket_ @ #640 Saturday, August 31st, 2019 – 5:58 pm
Not all of them.
C@t:
Yes I posted that Bolton article this morning. File that one under #ETTD.
No, PvO.