Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law

Higher disapproval ratings for both leaders in the latest Essential poll, which also records lukewarm feelings towards the United States and cooler ones for China.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll again comes up empty on voting intention, but it does offer the pollster’s third set of leadership ratings since the election. As with Newspoll, these record a drop in Scott Morrison’s net approval rating, owing to a three point rise in disapproval to 37%, while his approval holds steady at 48%. However, Essential parts company with Newspoll in finding Anthony Albanese up on disapproval as well, by five points to 29%, with approval down one to 38%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 44-26 to 44-28.

Further questions suggest the public leans positive on most aspects of the “influence of the United States of America” (defence, trade, cultural and business), excepting a neutral result (42% positive, 40% negative) for influence on Australian politics. The same exercise for China finds positive results for trade, neutral results for culture and business, and negative ones for defence and politics. Asked which of the two we would most benefit from strengthening ties with, 38% of respondents favoured the US and 28% China.

The small sample of respondents from New South Wales were also asked about the proposed removal of abortion from the criminal code, which was supported by an overwhelming 71% compared with 17% opposed. The poll has a sample of 1096 and was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday.

Note also the post below this one, being the latest Brexit update from Adrian Beaumont.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,826 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law”

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  3. TPOF

    ‘If there is some general question relating to the understanding of what ‘beyond reasonable doubt’ means (rather than whether it was open for this jury on this evidence to find Pell guilty) then it could hear the matter,’

    Thank you for responding. My year 12 legal studies told me everyone has two appeals, each to a higher court than the previous hearing. I did not realise a court could refuse to hear an appeal and so deny someone their second appeal.

    I’ve only read the summary of the findings, (if ‘findings’ is the right word), not the full 600-odd pages of the decision, but it seemed to me that the dissenting Judge deservedly dismissed the spurious claims about preist’s robes and the difficulty of accessing the body’s southern regions. how does a preist in robes answer the call of nature.

    His findings centred on the amount of information from other witnesses who said the abuse would have been unlikely or impossible on a Sunday, leading to a reasonable doubt in his mind. I think alot of people outside of the law and who havent heard all the evidence think the same way for intuitive reasons.

  4. I think the Greens should preference some Liberals. If there is a liberal moderate up against an SDA operative I’d be all for it. It is vital that there be a healthy moderate wing in the liberal party. The religious conservatives in both major parties should be combated.

  6. God Dam. Pell will be getting the band back together. The Rock Spiders:

    Five of those seven priests and brothers already imprisoned at the Hopkins Correctional Centre, 200 kilometres west of Melbourne, worked in the Ballarat diocese and would be known to Australia’s most senior cleric, who has been in custody since February.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/getting-the-damned-back-together-pell-to-spend-time-with-familiar-faces-20190823-p52k1c.html

  8. The nath is as useful as the briefly.

    To think the real lib-coal-kin is better than the lib-lab-coal-kin and worth giving a preference to is akin to GG’s emissions, that is hopeless, and not especially useful.

    Unless the nath lives under a bridge.

    A high possibility.

    We’re in a good position in this Test match.

  12. Sorry Licia, I just look at political culture and would much rather a Liberal party akin to Turnbull rather than one akin to Dutton. Turnbull is not my cup of tea, but at least the moderates have a relationship with sanity.

  13. It’s always amusing when Confessions accuses others of trolling as she humourlessly trolls.

    If someone were to receive a $1 for every time she lectures posters to ignore others, they would be wealthy indeed.

  15. “Sorry Licia, I just look at political culture and would much rather a Liberal party akin to Turnbull rather than one akin to Dutton. Turnbull is not my cup of tea, but at least the moderates have a relationship with sanity.”

    Rejoice naff. How good is ScoMo! Let us pray. In your tongue of choice, of course.

  16. The nath has a laugh at all our expenses claiming that the turdbull was better.

    The moderates in the Liberal party?

    Surely that’s the start of a joke…

    The nath forgets it’s all the same.

    And the joke is on all of us.

  17. Just caught up on today’s posts.

    Fascinating discussion on the working towards retiring Australia’s coal fired power stations as quickly as possible¿

  20. TPOF

    Thanks for your info about the HC.

    I think it would do many journos the world of good to read it and/or check out the HC’s role for themselves. The MSM has beaten up the idea of a HC appeal as though it would just be a repeat of the C of A, but with wiser judges who know better than the C of A judges.

    Mr Squiggle,

    The HC only takes on a very small proportion of the cases who apply for a hearing. In criminal cases their main interest is in ensuring that the actions in the lower courts were conducted as the law and court procedures prescribe. As TPOF pointed out, they don’t look at the actual evidence. The sole focus is on the appellants written and oral submission as to some error of law they claim was made in the trial ( and was subsequently overlooked by the three C of A judges.

    In the C of A, 2 grounds of the appeal related to alleged errors of law. Both were dismissed by all 3 judges.

    The only dissent concerned the actual jury decision. In appeals, jury decisions are rarely overturned and only if the appellate judges consider that on the evidence it would be impossible to find the accused guilty (eg if the jury ignored totally credible alibi evidence).

    My guess is that Pell will probably not go to the HC, but if he does get there he has a very low probability of success.

    However, I am not going to emulate Turnbull and proclaim “and so the HC will hold”.

  22. Andrew_Earlwood says:

    Rejoice naff. How good is ScoMo! Let us pray. In your tongue of choice, of course.
    _________________________
    Plenty in the ALP believe that a bearded man walked on water. Even zoomster talked in tongues once upon a time!

  26. When does the High Court consider Frydenberg’s eligibility?

    Who knows, but I reckon the court should put all such things off until 2022, effectively forcing the Parliament to deal with the (bullshit) issue properly.

  29. Who knows, but I reckon the court should put all such things off until 2022, effectively forcing the Parliament to deal with the (bullshit) issue properly.

    I disagree. What sort of precedent would that set for the future? Ineligible candidates being elected, knowing they have a 3 year tenure before being tested? No way.


  30. Five of those seven priests and brothers already imprisoned at the Hopkins Correctional Centre, 200 kilometres west of Melbourne, worked in the Ballarat diocese

    Exactly. And those defending Pell want us to believe he was not part of the shit show even though a court found he was.

  31. As economic and political head winds gather across the globe, leaders of the world’s major powers are bracing themselves for a different kind of turbulent force: President Trump.

    The American president, who now has a track record of crashing into global forums with a torrent of tweets, complaints and bombast, arrived on Saturday for the Group of Seven summit here. He comes bearing more grievance than guidance for global powers facing myriad challenges, including the threat of climate change and a potential global recession.

    In the days leading up to the G-7, Trump engaged in an escalation of his trade war with China, blasted Denmark for not selling Greenland to the United States, declared the world to be in recession, harassed his central bank chairman, threatened tariffs against several of the G-7 nations and called for G-7 outcast Russia to be readmitted to the group. He has claimed America’s allies mistreat the United States more than adversaries, slammed multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organization, blasted NATO countries for not meeting spending obligations, and threatened to send Islamic State fighters to Germany and France. Trump has attacked most of the leaders he will be meeting with during the weekend summit.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/with-the-global-economy-slowing-and-the-us-china-trade-war-escalating-trump-arrives-at-g-7-with-a-list-grievances/2019/08/23/54324914-c51b-11e9-850e-c0eef81a5224_story.html

    He should’ve listened to his own counsel and decreed the trip wasn’t worth his time, and stayed home.

  32. Although it would appear from that report that the US will host the G7 next year, a presidential election year.

    What could go wrong? 😆

  33. The Pell case highlights the difficulty with this sort of stuff; abuse seldom occurs with a witness present. In the end it is going to come down to he said, the kid said.

  34. Confessions:

    I mean only in respect of the citizenship mess, not the other issues (which can be substantive, and are dealt with properly).

    The citizenship requirement has the effect of making eligibility to sit in our Parliament subject to the peculiarities of a vast number of other nations. This was not the case at Federation and in any event is completely unacceptable for a sovereign nation. Instead anyone running for election should be required to execute an Australian instrument that extinguishes all other citizenships (to the extent it is possible to do so, cf. Greece). That puts Australia back in charge, instead of the ridiculous spectacle of the High Court attempting to develop a theory of Italian jurisprudence.

  36. EGT:

    I’ve said often that S44 needs reform. It’s ridiculous that Australian MPs can be ruled ineligible based on the vagaries of foreign countries’ citizenship legislation and sundry changes as they pertain to parents, grandparents etc of elected representatives born and raised in Australia their entire lives.

    However I do not agree that the High Court should park claims against elected MPs post election for 3 years and let the legislature deal with them when there is already a HC ruling in place that should provide sufficient guidance.

  37. Greensborough Growler @ #1176 Saturday, August 24th, 2019 – 7:17 pm

    You’re personally peeved because your personal hobby horse is basically regarded as a “nice to have” by most people/voters, where as you regard it as a matter of life or death and even human existence.

    “Personally peeved”? Of course I’m personally peeved! I don’t like what people are doing to the planet my kids are going to have to try and live on – either through laziness, greed, or because acknowledging the truth threatens their belief system 🙁

  38. Player One @ #1287 Saturday, August 24th, 2019 – 10:49 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1176 Saturday, August 24th, 2019 – 7:17 pm

    You’re personally peeved because your personal hobby horse is basically regarded as a “nice to have” by most people/voters, where as you regard it as a matter of life or death and even human existence.

    “Personally peeved”? Of course I’m personally peeved! I don’t like what people are doing to the planet my kids are going to have to try and live on – either through laziness, greed, or because acknowledging the truth threatens their belief system 🙁

    Mate, never forget, the band was still playing when the Titanic went down.

  40. “abuse seldom occurs with a witness present. In the end it is going to come down to he said, the kid said.’

    This puts the finger on the issue that troubles me most. I’m an atheist, I’m no friend of the catholic church, but there seems to be a trend of abuse claims where the alleged events involve a public figure (eg a Priest or an actor), at a public event (eg Sunday Mass, or on-stage rehersals) where the accused is the centre of attention (Eg Pell on a SUnday mass, Rush at a rehersals, Rolf Harris at a TV show) etc.

    If abuse seldom occurs with witness present, then how do these cases keep coming up?

  41. squiggle needs to read the court reports that are available and learn to listen.

    It would be a shame for the squiggle to become like bush fire bill and think that conversations on the internet is the same as abusing children.

  42. Mr Squiggle

    The cases keep coming up because sexual assaults occur.

    The vast majority of sexual activity in our culture occurs in private, be it consensual or assault. Lack of witnesses is the norm.

    Nevertheless there is no shortage of cases of sexual assault convictions where the assault took place furtively but also brazenly in public settings. The C of A judgement dealt with such conduct at points 99-101 when considering the Pell allegations.

  44. Barney:

    E. G. Theodore

    So basically you want the HC to ignore it’s own ruling.

    One could suggest it’s even worse than that: I want the HC to be slow to act on part of the Constitution!

    The HC hears cases and its judges issue judgments. A previous judgment does not bind it to a particular schedule for hearing subsequent cases: previous judgements might be relevant as precedents, but are not relevant to time management. The HC has limited time and should allocate that time to serve the interests of justice, not in reaction to an incompetent parliament led by incompetent Prime Ministers. None of the citizenship cases have had anything to do with justice; instead they are just side effects of particularly pathetic form of political combat, generated by Mr Turnbull who thought it to his advantage. It is the grossly improper conduct of politics through the courts that has—more than any other factor—led to the situation in the United States, and now to insanity from which it might not recover. This is a path Australia should not further pursue, and the proper role of the HC in the matter is to refuse to participate in such deviant behaviour.

  45. E. G. Theodore

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the HC is acting in its capacity as the Court of Disputed Returns and as such doesn’t have the same discretion as to whether it hears a case or not.

  46. frednk @ #1282 Saturday, August 24th, 2019 – 10:35 pm

    The Pell case highlights the difficulty with this sort of stuff; abuse seldom occurs with a witness present. In the end it is going to come down to he said, the kid said.

    Often it does that, yes. But not in Pell’s case. In Pell’s case it comes down to he said, the kid said, the other kid said (but then unfortunately died before the legal system got around to doing anything), other community members also said things consistent with Pell being an abuser, and Pell made significant efforts to hide other abusers within the church.

    That’s all far, far more damning than “he said, the kid said”.

  47. Barney:

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the HC is acting in its capacity as the Court of Disputed Returns and as such doesn’t have the same discretion as to whether it hears a case or not.

    That is why I suggested delay, not refusal.

    I believe the actions brought by petition within 40 ? days of the relevant election must be heard. For others, there is discretion.

    Also. read s47 – interesting, huh… (there are 1902 and 1918 acts where the Parliament does provide otherwise, namely the HC )

  48. E. G. Theodore

    Everything you say sounds very unlike the HC, especially the one we have at the moment.

    I think you’re dreaming.

  49. Barney:

    Everything you say sounds very unlike the HC, especially the one we have at the moment.

    I agree – moreover the HC’s assumption that they’re the smartest people in any room and on any topic, and consequent arrogation of stupid decisions to itself is part of the problem.

    Sweet dreams.

  50. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This is all I could trawl today, I’m afraid.

    Melissa Cunningham reports that Josh Frydenberg has called for an end to an escalating trade war between the US and China which has left investors reeling and sent stocks plummeting.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/tensions-are-on-our-doorstep-treasurer-josh-frydenberg-calls-for-end-to-trade-war-20190824-p52kc6.html
    A very good column from Peter FitzSimons today.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/archbishop-you-believe-pell-and-the-victim-so-what-have-you-done-to-find-the-real-culprit-20190823-p52k6m.html
    Not only is George Pell’s loss of appeal a win against his victims, but a triumph for abuse victims everywhere, writes Dr Jennifer Wilson. A well written contribution from a woman who herself suffered child sexual abuse.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/pell-decision-a-victory-for-all-abuse-survivors,13038
    Dr Colleen Lewis writes that Porter’s proposed model for a Commonwealth Integrity Commission raises more questions than it answers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/vague-claims-around-commonwealth-integrity-commission-need-evidence-20190824-p52kcl.html
    Katharine Murphy reports that Morrison’s suicide prevention adviser says the mental health system may increase the risk of self-harm.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/24/scott-morrisons-suicide-prevention-adviser-says-mental-health-system-may-increase-risk-of-self-harm
    Freedom of speech has been questioned this week by two people who only believe in it when it suits them, writes John Wren.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/wrens-week-freedom-of-speech-according-to-jones-and-hanson,13034
    Keeping up with Australia’s surging population growth has meant that important issues have been pushed aside, writes Michael Bayliss.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-endless-growth-paradigm-,13039
    Trump launched a furious and highly personal Twitter attack on Friday against the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell, fuming that the Fed once more “did NOTHING!” and wondering who is “our bigger enemy” – Powell or China’s leader. The idiot has no concept of the term independent”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/our-bigger-enemy-trump-escalates-attack-on-fed-chief-20190824-p52kb5.html
    Matthew Knott tells us about Trump’s latest tantrums.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-is-having-a-tantrum-shares-tumble-as-us-china-trade-war-deepens-20190824-p52kaz.html
    The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has taken aim at the US dollar’s ‘destabilising’ role in the world economy and said central banks might have to create a replacement currency.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/world-needs-to-end-risky-reliance-on-us-dollar-says-bank-of-england-20190824-p52kat.html
    And Boris Johnson has waded into the escalating trade row between the US and China, saying he wants to see tariffs removed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/24/boris-johnson-calls-for-removal-of-us-china-trade-tariffs
    Peter Wilson says that Boris Johnson has two formidable foes, France and Germany, to deal with regarding his Brexit.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2019/08/24/johnson-merkel-macron-brexit/
    Fox News is a dangerous state propaganda outlet. Sarah Sanders’ job confirms that writes Nathan Robinson.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/24/fox-news-is-a-dangerous-state-propaganda-outlet-sarah-sanders-job-confirms-that

    Cartoon Corner

    From Matt Golding.

    Mark David Does such good work!

    I take my hat off to Zanetti for this one.

    Glen Le Lievre on the Amazon fires.

    From the US


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