Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The second federal poll since the election finds the Coalition back where it started after an apparent post-election bounce in the previous poll three weeks ago.

Newspoll’s first result in three weeks, and second since the election, turns up a surprise in recording a shrinking in the Coalition’s lead from 53-47 to 51-49 – which, if meaningful, would mean an end to the honeymoon period and a return to where things stood at election time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 42%, down two points on the last poll and up 0.6% on the election result; Labor is on 34%, up one point and 0.7%; the Greens are on 11%, steady and up 0.6%; and One Nation are on 4%, up one point and 0.9%.

Leadership ratings are likewise consistent with the fading of a post-election sugar hit, with Scott Morrison down three on approval to 48% and up six on disapproval to 42%. Anthony Albanese’s ratings also seem to be trending from mediocre to respectable, with his approval up two to 41% and disapproval down to 34%, leaving him shading Morrison by a point on net approval. However, this hasn’t translated to preferred prime minister for some reason, on which Morrison holds a healthy lead of 48-30, out from 48-31 last time.

The poll was conducted by online and automated phone surveying from a sample of 1623, from Thursday to Sunday. Full report from The Australian here. As before, we remain in the dark as to how the pollster’s methods have been adjusted since the election failure, if at all. However, the size of the movements, and the lack of anything obvious to explain them, suggests the poll has not been subjected to the smoothing method that Newspoll must have been using before the election to give it its uncanny and, as it turned out, misleading consistency.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,157 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. BB
    I think it’s entirely understandable that people who have personal experience of victims of child abuse hate Pell, who is a symbol one way or the other.
    Fortunately I don’t have their experience so I don’t share their outrage but that doesn’t mean they are wrong to despise Pell.

  2. The Guardian has just laid it out. If you want to stop the Adani mine, lobby GHD and AECOM and lobby the banks that fund them.

    Then blockade their state office HQs.

  3. William, by not proscribing the justifications for all of the above has made it them officially approved pathways of political and social discourse. I’m sure he doesn’t want to lose punters, but he must wonder why this blog is rarely taken seriously, if ever.

    Bushfire Bill sounding his usual pompous self. He must wonder why people don’t take him seriously much any more.

  4. DanG,
    Your choice, but I note that you don’t have equally stern words and condemnation for The Greens’ partisans that truly make this blog unreadable whenever they decide to do one of their anti Labor pile-ons. Which is most days.

  5. “The Nut-job Right is tribal. The Justice system, which they think is meant to serve them, got one of their own, hence the outrage.”

    Having read a bit today about Pell and why his appeal failed…I think the appeals court got it right. Interesting that the evidence given at the trial saying he couldn’t have put the robes aside was real world tested and found be be not true.

    If there is more to come out, unrelated to this case and about any involvement that Pell is alleged to have had in facilitating or covering up abuse by others he is going to be inside for along time. And…will be interesting to see the churches reaction to allegations of facilitating or covering up abuse.

    Didn’t we have a GG dumped once because of that?

  6. I’ve got an ad for “Wallet Wizard” (pay day lender). Can’t imagine why, I haven’t owed money since I payed off my mortgage 25 years ago. Maybe it’s because I looked at betting sites during the election. They think I’m a gambler. Gambler –> need to borrow @48% or whatever.

  7. The Lib-kin strategy is notionally premised on two things – Labor depending on third voices to form a government; and the Lib-kin being in a position to constitute that third voice. In the alternative, the default position is that Labor lose. The Lib-kin exercise just enough influence to deliver the latter. They will never again be in a position to deliver the former.

    The Lib-kin will keep their cousins, the Lib-Libs in office for as long as possible.

  8. Germany will auction a 30-year bond with a 0% interest rate for the first time on Wednesday.

    The bond sale that took place at 10:30 a.m. London time will mean the German government will not make any interest payments to those buying the bond until it matures in August 2050.

    Bondholders would usually receive both the face value back as well as interest payments over the assets lifetime. But a zero-coupon bondholder would only receive the face value back.

    The sale of 2 billion euros of the long-term bond that was announced last week comes at a time when the yields of these fixed-income assets have hit record lows, with many moving into negative territory as investors look to shelter from market turbulence and capitalize on central bank easing.

    A zero-coupon bond from the German government is an option for investors to park their money in a longer term safe-haven asset and lock their cash for a 30-year period amid global uncertainties.

    In a challenging market environment, investors tend to move their investments from riskier assets into safe-havens like gold and government bonds, thereby bumping up demand and prices. Bond yields move inversely to prices, and hence have been turning negative.

    A bond’s coupon rate is the rate of interest it pays annually, while its yield is the measure of return based on coupon and purchase price.

  9. The bond market is saying German bunds are effectively better than gold…no storage/delivery cost on a bund…

    In a deflationary economy, the bund looks good.

  10. As climate change kicks in more and more, there will be recurring disinvestment in peripheral economies…disinvest…lower income flows…higher unemployment…contracting demand…further disinvestment…

  11. It’s always a little strange when a poster basically calls others contemptible scumbags for being judgmental.

    It has an air of pots and kettles about it.

  12. The imputed capital values assigned to undusrupted wilderness will soar.

    These systems and locations will be regarded as the refuge of the future. They have been priced at zero by the market until recently. This is a spectacular example of market failure. It will soon experience a radical price correction as the economy buckles under the impact of atmospheric disruption.

  13. I remember coming across the British 2.5% Consols in finance-related studies back in the 70s when inflation and interest rates were rampant. These were interest-bearing bonds issued in the 1920s redeemable at the option of the UK Government. The 2.5% coupon rate seemed utterly bizarre. It was the common view that these bonds would never be redeemed.

    They were redeemed in 2015.

  14. The headline own goal by the NY Times continues to give.

    SchooleyVerified account@Rschooley
    8h8 hours ago
    Dear @nytimes, when in doubt, go with this.

    :large

  15. Steve777

    The most interesting question is what discount rate should be applied to wilderness.

    The market has assigned a zero rate to the undisturbed environment. This is clearly wrong. It’s an example of the tragedy of the commons and of market failure.

    This must surely be rectified.

    In a pristine environment, even if the discount rate is exceedingly low – close to zero – because the life of the “security” is infinitely long, the imputed capital value is very high.

    If we take that very high starting capital value and depreciate it within a few decades, the implied discount rate must be very high. That’s what we’re doing. But the discount rate used by the market with respect to the environment is wildly wrong. It fails to price the environment correctly.

    This is a very important question imo. It goes to the entire set of questions raised by irrevocable destruction, eco-social sustainability, equity across time, the value of life per se..

  16. Joe Walsh, a pugnacious former congressman, is preparing a Republican primary challenge to President Trump that he previewed as a daily “bar fight” with the incumbent over his morality and competency.

    Mark Sanford, a former South Carolina governor and congressman, said he is inching closer to a bid of his own by sounding out activists in New Hampshire and other early-voting states about an insurgency focused on the ballooning deficit.

    Jeff Flake, a former Arizona senator and Trump antagonist, said he has taken a flurry of recruitment calls in recent days from GOP donors rattled by signs of an economic slowdown and hungry for an alternative to Trump.

    And former Ohio governor John Kasich will head to New Hampshire next month to “take a look at things” after experiencing “an increase” in overtures this summer, an adviser said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-critics-eye-gop-primary-race-even-if-defeating-him-seems-preposterous/2019/08/20/4382f3dc-c360-11e9-b72f-b31dfaa77212_story.html

    Please challenge him in the primary, but if he wins step aside and encourage your supporters to vote Democrat.

  17. Mavis
    My reading of the judgement is that basically two judges believed the witness and one didn’t. It’s not a great outcome for justice.
    When it comes down to whether you believe or disbelieve one person, I think there is reasonable doubt and you can guess the rest of my imputation.

  18. SK:

    If the Washington Post article is to be believed there is a new urgency from the anti-Trump movement in the GOP (such that it is), to move a credible opposition against him before it’s too late and nominations close.

  19. sprocket_
    says:
    Wednesday, August 21, 2019 at 10:26 pm
    Dotard is getting more delusional by the day –
    ________________________
    Oh I don’t know, I quite enjoy Briefly’s daily rants. I just wish he’d use the word gizmo more, I am playing a drinking game here!

  20. “The market has assigned a zero rate to the undisturbed environment. “

    Wouldn’t that be zero asset value, so undisturbed environment just doesn’t figure unless it’s logged, mined, farmed or “developed”.

  21. fess
    I don’t give a shit if they run against him in the primaries. They will lose. But if they unite and run for POTUS , on an independent Conservative ticket, it helps a lot.

  22. BB

    You have written a few lengthy posts today, beginning quite a while after the
    Pell decision came down.

    At no stage did you address all the rationalisations and minimisations you made in support of Pell when he was first found guilty. Do you recall that you wrote several treatises about how Pell wasn’t really guilty yet, criticising and arguing with many who expressed joy at his conviction.

    Yabba, whose consistent attitudes to the matter are well known today expressed his joy about the Appeal being denied, spiced as has been his want, with words of intense disapproval of Pell, wishing him all the worst for his future in gaol.

    Unknowingly Yabba gave you your unicorn for today’s BB lectures titled “On Unreasonable and Unjustifiable Hatred of Pell” and so on you went with that theme.

    But what about all your earlier works at the time of the original conviction. When are you going to humour us by contrasting them with the majority judgement today. Tomorrow perhaps?

  23. Dio:

    I used to think the same as you, but have had my view changed by reading many commentators on this subject. Trump’s vote is low so he really needs a third party candidate who will capture those centrist voters who might otherwise vote Democrat.

  24. I posted this the other day. Third party candidate impact on the Democrats’ electoral fortunes next year.

    Summary of Key Findings

    Having an Independent candidate in the 2020 presidential race dramatically improves President Donald Trump’s chances of reelection.

    In a head-to-head match-up of the 2020 general election, Trump trails a generic Democratic Party nominee among likely voters by 11 points, 37% to 48%, with 9% of voters undecided.

    With an Independent in the race, the election becomes a statistical tie between Trump and his Democratic Party rival, 34% to 32%, with 16% going to the Independent and 16% undecided.

    An analysis of voters who selected the Independent option after initially selecting Trump of the generic Democrat reveals that for every voter Trump loses, the Democrat loses 5.

    http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/2019-02-26-independent-candidate-survey/

  25. What are you talking about Psyclaw?

    I acknowledged Pell had lost his appeal. I noted he might appeal (as did every fucking newspaper, television news and blog in the country). I noted my permanent estrangement from the Catholic church (since the age of 17), and gave reasons why, I wrote of my disgust at the church’s hypocrisy on moral grounds (then and now), and I agreed Pell is a terrible person.

    I did not defend Pell or the Catholic church, seek to excuse his behaviour or express doubt or dissent concerning today’s appeal outcome.

    What MORE do you fucking want, you patronizing wanker?

    If you want to believe in fairy stories about unicorns, go ahead, but don’t include me in your fantasies.

    Incidentally, Yabba expressed a hope that Pell should die in agony, fully conscious during every moment of the process. Another poster sought to justify hatred in certain circumstances, personal to him (sounded a lot like the CIA justifying torture to me). Yet another wrote a cheerful song celebrating Pell’s death. None of that sounds very “joyful” to me.

  26. I have a feeling that BB doesn’t actually ‘feel’ anything. Us real human beings are moved occasionally by happenings around us, or experiences we go through, like listening to Andreas Scholl sing Cum Dederit with the Brandenburg Orchestra, and crying at its beauty.

    Pell unfortunately moves me, in entirely the opposite sort of way, to a deep, visceral revulsion that such a creature has been able to spread his evil so effectively, to deliberately and ruthlessly destroy the lives of so many. When his name comes up, I feel the bile rising. Actually feel it.

    It appears that all BB ever does is to try to work out what a mythical perfectly adjusted, emotionless cyborg would do, and then publish it to us lesser beings. I prefer to actually feel things.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfqiT4aRXyk

  27. Vic:

    FWIW my view is that even if he does lose the elections next year, he’s not going to go. Only as recently as the other day he was hinting as the need to have extra time added onto his first term because of the ‘time taken away’ due to Mueller’s inquiry.

  28. Vic:

    Seriously?! I don’t see anything that even hints of him departing after serving a term. Even the prospective but unconfirmed Republican challengers all note what an uphill battle they have in front of them in the Party of Trump.

    I’m the opposite of you. Not only do I think he’ll be the Republican candidate next year, but will likely win re-election, if for no other reason than that Democrats excel at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and will confirm Warren or Sanders or Beto as their candidate, rather than a candidate who can appeal to the voters in those states they need the electoral college votes from.

  29. Fess

    There is no way the US will allow an additional 4 years of this shit show. In any event Trump wont have the stamina to see it through.
    He will be going before 2020 election

    On that note, night all

  30. I don’t see Trump walking away from rerunning, its the best job his ever had as it gives him and his ego the sort of power like no other so i see him wanting a second term.

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