Newspoll’s first result in three weeks, and second since the election, turns up a surprise in recording a shrinking in the Coalition’s lead from 53-47 to 51-49 – which, if meaningful, would mean an end to the honeymoon period and a return to where things stood at election time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 42%, down two points on the last poll and up 0.6% on the election result; Labor is on 34%, up one point and 0.7%; the Greens are on 11%, steady and up 0.6%; and One Nation are on 4%, up one point and 0.9%.
Leadership ratings are likewise consistent with the fading of a post-election sugar hit, with Scott Morrison down three on approval to 48% and up six on disapproval to 42%. Anthony Albanese’s ratings also seem to be trending from mediocre to respectable, with his approval up two to 41% and disapproval down to 34%, leaving him shading Morrison by a point on net approval. However, this hasn’t translated to preferred prime minister for some reason, on which Morrison holds a healthy lead of 48-30, out from 48-31 last time.
The poll was conducted by online and automated phone surveying from a sample of 1623, from Thursday to Sunday. Full report from The Australian here. As before, we remain in the dark as to how the pollster’s methods have been adjusted since the election failure, if at all. However, the size of the movements, and the lack of anything obvious to explain them, suggests the poll has not been subjected to the smoothing method that Newspoll must have been using before the election to give it its uncanny and, as it turned out, misleading consistency.
BB
I think it’s entirely understandable that people who have personal experience of victims of child abuse hate Pell, who is a symbol one way or the other.
Fortunately I don’t have their experience so I don’t share their outrage but that doesn’t mean they are wrong to despise Pell.
The Guardian has just laid it out. If you want to stop the Adani mine, lobby GHD and AECOM and lobby the banks that fund them.
Then blockade their state office HQs.
Why do I get lingerie adds on here? The last time I bought lingerie was for a uni social club party some 20yrs ago.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/08/expected-scott-bacon-recount.html
Expected Scott Bacon Recount
Popular Tasmanian Labor state MP Scott Bacon is quitting his seat, and his replacement might be problematic for his party. Also includes a graph showing the rapid decline of men in the Tasmanian Parliament!
William, by not proscribing the justifications for all of the above has made it them officially approved pathways of political and social discourse. I’m sure he doesn’t want to lose punters, but he must wonder why this blog is rarely taken seriously, if ever.
Bushfire Bill sounding his usual pompous self. He must wonder why people don’t take him seriously much any more.
Simon Katich @ #1103 Wednesday, August 21st, 2019 – 9:45 pm
You get ads!?! 😉
SK
Join Market Forces campaigns:
https://www.marketforces.org.au/
DanG,
Your choice, but I note that you don’t have equally stern words and condemnation for The Greens’ partisans that truly make this blog unreadable whenever they decide to do one of their anti Labor pile-ons. Which is most days.
“The Nut-job Right is tribal. The Justice system, which they think is meant to serve them, got one of their own, hence the outrage.”
Having read a bit today about Pell and why his appeal failed…I think the appeals court got it right. Interesting that the evidence given at the trial saying he couldn’t have put the robes aside was real world tested and found be be not true.
If there is more to come out, unrelated to this case and about any involvement that Pell is alleged to have had in facilitating or covering up abuse by others he is going to be inside for along time. And…will be interesting to see the churches reaction to allegations of facilitating or covering up abuse.
Didn’t we have a GG dumped once because of that?
I’ve got an ad for “Wallet Wizard” (pay day lender). Can’t imagine why, I haven’t owed money since I payed off my mortgage 25 years ago. Maybe it’s because I looked at betting sites during the election. They think I’m a gambler. Gambler –> need to borrow @48% or whatever.
“Gambler –> need to borrow @48% or whatever.”
Ahhhh…that’s so you can afford the slinky undies you have been perusing!!!
The Lib-kin strategy is notionally premised on two things – Labor depending on third voices to form a government; and the Lib-kin being in a position to constitute that third voice. In the alternative, the default position is that Labor lose. The Lib-kin exercise just enough influence to deliver the latter. They will never again be in a position to deliver the former.
The Lib-kin will keep their cousins, the Lib-Libs in office for as long as possible.
Germany will auction a 30-year bond with a 0% interest rate for the first time on Wednesday.
The bond sale that took place at 10:30 a.m. London time will mean the German government will not make any interest payments to those buying the bond until it matures in August 2050.
Bondholders would usually receive both the face value back as well as interest payments over the assets lifetime. But a zero-coupon bondholder would only receive the face value back.
The sale of 2 billion euros of the long-term bond that was announced last week comes at a time when the yields of these fixed-income assets have hit record lows, with many moving into negative territory as investors look to shelter from market turbulence and capitalize on central bank easing.
A zero-coupon bond from the German government is an option for investors to park their money in a longer term safe-haven asset and lock their cash for a 30-year period amid global uncertainties.
In a challenging market environment, investors tend to move their investments from riskier assets into safe-havens like gold and government bonds, thereby bumping up demand and prices. Bond yields move inversely to prices, and hence have been turning negative.
A bond’s coupon rate is the rate of interest it pays annually, while its yield is the measure of return based on coupon and purchase price.
The bond market is saying German bunds are effectively better than gold…no storage/delivery cost on a bund…
In a deflationary economy, the bund looks good.
As climate change kicks in more and more, there will be recurring disinvestment in peripheral economies…disinvest…lower income flows…higher unemployment…contracting demand…further disinvestment…
It’s always a little strange when a poster basically calls others contemptible scumbags for being judgmental.
It has an air of pots and kettles about it.
The imputed capital values assigned to undusrupted wilderness will soar.
These systems and locations will be regarded as the refuge of the future. They have been priced at zero by the market until recently. This is a spectacular example of market failure. It will soon experience a radical price correction as the economy buckles under the impact of atmospheric disruption.
zoom….there’s a surplus of self-righteousness and sanctimony on show here. They trade at a healthy discount, such is the over-supply.
I remember coming across the British 2.5% Consols in finance-related studies back in the 70s when inflation and interest rates were rampant. These were interest-bearing bonds issued in the 1920s redeemable at the option of the UK Government. The 2.5% coupon rate seemed utterly bizarre. It was the common view that these bonds would never be redeemed.
They were redeemed in 2015.
Dotard is getting more delusional by the day – must be awkward for our friends in the land of the free. Awkward and embarrassing
The headline own goal by the NY Times continues to give.
Steve777
The most interesting question is what discount rate should be applied to wilderness.
The market has assigned a zero rate to the undisturbed environment. This is clearly wrong. It’s an example of the tragedy of the commons and of market failure.
This must surely be rectified.
In a pristine environment, even if the discount rate is exceedingly low – close to zero – because the life of the “security” is infinitely long, the imputed capital value is very high.
If we take that very high starting capital value and depreciate it within a few decades, the implied discount rate must be very high. That’s what we’re doing. But the discount rate used by the market with respect to the environment is wildly wrong. It fails to price the environment correctly.
This is a very important question imo. It goes to the entire set of questions raised by irrevocable destruction, eco-social sustainability, equity across time, the value of life per se..
Dotard may be on the money here..
“Nobody can be trusted,” Trump said today in the Oval Office. “Nobody can be trusted.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-critics-eye-gop-primary-race-even-if-defeating-him-seems-preposterous/2019/08/20/4382f3dc-c360-11e9-b72f-b31dfaa77212_story.html
Please challenge him in the primary, but if he wins step aside and encourage your supporters to vote Democrat.
Sprocket…Trump is a bonfire. He keeps throwing himself on the pyre. Soon there will nothing but ashes left.
Mavis
My reading of the judgement is that basically two judges believed the witness and one didn’t. It’s not a great outcome for justice.
When it comes down to whether you believe or disbelieve one person, I think there is reasonable doubt and you can guess the rest of my imputation.
Ashes to ashes, dust to dust
Get rid of Trump quick before we spontaneously combust.
I can see why Donald is fixated on FoxNews…
SK:
If the Washington Post article is to be believed there is a new urgency from the anti-Trump movement in the GOP (such that it is), to move a credible opposition against him before it’s too late and nominations close.
sprocket_
says:
Wednesday, August 21, 2019 at 10:26 pm
Dotard is getting more delusional by the day –
________________________
Oh I don’t know, I quite enjoy Briefly’s daily rants. I just wish he’d use the word gizmo more, I am playing a drinking game here!
“The market has assigned a zero rate to the undisturbed environment. “
Wouldn’t that be zero asset value, so undisturbed environment just doesn’t figure unless it’s logged, mined, farmed or “developed”.
fess
I don’t give a shit if they run against him in the primaries. They will lose. But if they unite and run for POTUS , on an independent Conservative ticket, it helps a lot.
Morrison could have picked a better day to go all the way with the loon
sprocket_ @ #1125 Wednesday, August 21st, 2019 – 10:33 pm
That’s right. Nuke ’em all! It’s the only way to be sure.
BB
You have written a few lengthy posts today, beginning quite a while after the
Pell decision came down.
At no stage did you address all the rationalisations and minimisations you made in support of Pell when he was first found guilty. Do you recall that you wrote several treatises about how Pell wasn’t really guilty yet, criticising and arguing with many who expressed joy at his conviction.
Yabba, whose consistent attitudes to the matter are well known today expressed his joy about the Appeal being denied, spiced as has been his want, with words of intense disapproval of Pell, wishing him all the worst for his future in gaol.
Unknowingly Yabba gave you your unicorn for today’s BB lectures titled “On Unreasonable and Unjustifiable Hatred of Pell” and so on you went with that theme.
But what about all your earlier works at the time of the original conviction. When are you going to humour us by contrasting them with the majority judgement today. Tomorrow perhaps?
Dio:
I used to think the same as you, but have had my view changed by reading many commentators on this subject. Trump’s vote is low so he really needs a third party candidate who will capture those centrist voters who might otherwise vote Democrat.
I posted this the other day. Third party candidate impact on the Democrats’ electoral fortunes next year.
http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/2019-02-26-independent-candidate-survey/
What are you talking about Psyclaw?
I acknowledged Pell had lost his appeal. I noted he might appeal (as did every fucking newspaper, television news and blog in the country). I noted my permanent estrangement from the Catholic church (since the age of 17), and gave reasons why, I wrote of my disgust at the church’s hypocrisy on moral grounds (then and now), and I agreed Pell is a terrible person.
I did not defend Pell or the Catholic church, seek to excuse his behaviour or express doubt or dissent concerning today’s appeal outcome.
What MORE do you fucking want, you patronizing wanker?
If you want to believe in fairy stories about unicorns, go ahead, but don’t include me in your fantasies.
Incidentally, Yabba expressed a hope that Pell should die in agony, fully conscious during every moment of the process. Another poster sought to justify hatred in certain circumstances, personal to him (sounded a lot like the CIA justifying torture to me). Yet another wrote a cheerful song celebrating Pell’s death. None of that sounds very “joyful” to me.
We may yet see Trump being taken out of White House in straight jacket.
Vic:
I’d rather he was carted off in cuffs, but you don’t always get what you want 😀
Fess
Of course but he figures playing the cray cray card is better for him.
The AWU is now down to less than 70 thousand members, half of its recent high under Bill Shorten, who as we know was signing up oblivious jockeys, cleaners etc to bolster the AWU numbers and give him a power base to take down Rudd and Gillard.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/shortens-union-faces-probe-over-inflated-membership-numbers/news-story/cb918c8e23a966db08480dfaa698b60f
I have a feeling that BB doesn’t actually ‘feel’ anything. Us real human beings are moved occasionally by happenings around us, or experiences we go through, like listening to Andreas Scholl sing Cum Dederit with the Brandenburg Orchestra, and crying at its beauty.
Pell unfortunately moves me, in entirely the opposite sort of way, to a deep, visceral revulsion that such a creature has been able to spread his evil so effectively, to deliberately and ruthlessly destroy the lives of so many. When his name comes up, I feel the bile rising. Actually feel it.
It appears that all BB ever does is to try to work out what a mythical perfectly adjusted, emotionless cyborg would do, and then publish it to us lesser beings. I prefer to actually feel things.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfqiT4aRXyk
Vic:
FWIW my view is that even if he does lose the elections next year, he’s not going to go. Only as recently as the other day he was hinting as the need to have extra time added onto his first term because of the ‘time taken away’ due to Mueller’s inquiry.
Fess
I am very confident that Trump will not be contesting next election.
Vic:
Seriously?! I don’t see anything that even hints of him departing after serving a term. Even the prospective but unconfirmed Republican challengers all note what an uphill battle they have in front of them in the Party of Trump.
I’m the opposite of you. Not only do I think he’ll be the Republican candidate next year, but will likely win re-election, if for no other reason than that Democrats excel at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and will confirm Warren or Sanders or Beto as their candidate, rather than a candidate who can appeal to the voters in those states they need the electoral college votes from.
Fess
There is no way the US will allow an additional 4 years of this shit show. In any event Trump wont have the stamina to see it through.
He will be going before 2020 election
On that note, night all
I don’t see Trump walking away from rerunning, its the best job his ever had as it gives him and his ego the sort of power like no other so i see him wanting a second term.