Time for part four in the series that reviews the result of the May 18 election seat by seat, one chunk at a time. As will be the routine in posts covering the capital cities, we start with a colour-coded map showing the two-party preferred swing at polling booth level, with each booth allocated a geographic catchment area by means explained in the first post in this series. Click for an enlarged image.
Now to compare actual election results to those predicted by a demographic linear regression model, to help identify where candidate or local factors might be needed to explain the result. I now offer a new-and-improved form of the model that includes interaction effects to account for the differences in demographic effects between the cities and the regions. The utility of the change, if any, will become more apparent when I apply it to regional seats, which confounded the original version of the model. The coefficients and what-have-you can be viewed here – the table below shows the modelled predictions and actual results for Labor two-party preferred, ranked in order of difference between the result and the prediction of the model.
The main eyebrow-raisers are that the model anticipates a stronger performance by Labor in nearly every Liberal-held seats, to the extent that blue-ribbon Higgins and Goldstein are both rated as naturally highly marginal. While this could prove a portent of things to come in these seats, it might equally reflect a model leaning too heavily on the “secular/no religion” variable to cancel out the association between income and Liberal support in the inner cities.
As in Sydney, the numbers provide strong indications of incumbency advantages, with both Labor and Liberal members tending to outperform the model and thus appear at opposite ends of the table. I suspect this reflects both the obvious explanation, namely personal votes for sitting members, and a lack of effort by the parties into each other’s safe seats. A tendency for parties to perform more modestly when a seat is being vacated is not so overwhelming as to prevent strong results relative to the model for Labor in Jagajaga and Liberal in Higgins.
With that out of the way:
Aston (Liberal 10.1%; 2.7% swing to Liberal): Aston attracted a lot of discussion after the 2004 election when the Liberals recorded a higher two-party vote than they did in their jewel-in-the-crown seat of Kooyong. Now, for the first time since then, it’s happened again, and by a fairly substantial margin (the Liberal-versus-Labor margin in Kooyong having been 6.7%). As illustrated in the above table, the swing places Alan Tudge’s margin well beyond what the seat’s demographic indicators would lead you to expect.
Bruce (Labor 14.2%; 0.1% swing to Labor): Located at the point of the outer suburbs where the Labor swing dries up, cancelling out any half-sophomore effect that may have been coming Julian Hill’s way after he came to the seat in 2016.
Calwell (Labor 18.8%; 0.9% swing to Liberal): Among the modest number of Melbourne seats to swing to the Liberals, reflecting its multiculturalism and location at the city’s edge. Maria Vamvakinou nonetheless retains the fifth biggest Labor margin in the country.
Chisholm (Liberal 0.6%; 2.3% swing to Labor): Labor’s failure to win Chisholm after it was vacated by Julia Banks was among their most disappointing results of the election, but the result was entirely within the normal range both for Melbourne’s middle suburbs and a seat of its particular demographic profile. The swing to Labor was concentrated at the northern end of the electorate, which may or may not have something to do with this being the slightly less Chinese end of the electorate.
Cooper (Labor 14.6% versus Greens; 13.4% swing to Labor): With David Feeney gone and Ged Kearney entrenched, the door seems to have slammed shut on the Greens in the seat formerly known as Batman. After recording high thirties primary votes at both the 2016 election and 2018 by-election, the Greens crashed to 21.1%, while Kearney was up from 43.1% at the by-election to 46.8%, despite the fact the Liberals were in the field this time and polling 19.5%. In Labor-versus-Liberal terms, a 4.2% swing to Labor boosted the margin to 25.9%, the highest in the country.
Deakin (Liberal 4.8%; 1.7% swing to Labor): While Melburnian backers of the coup against Malcolm Turnbull did not suffer the retribution anticipated after the state election, it may at least be noted that Michael Sukkar’s seat swung the other way from its demographically similar neighbour, Aston. That said, Sukkar’s 4.8% margin strongly outperforms the prediction of the demographic model, which picks the seat for marginal Labor.
Dunkley (LABOR NOTIONAL GAIN 2.7%; 1.7% swing to Labor): Together with Corangamite, Dunkley was one of only two Victorian seats gained by Labor on any reckoning, and even they can be excluded if post-redistribution margins are counted as the starting point. With quite a few other outer urban seats going the other way, and a part-sophomore effect to be anticipated after he succeeded Bruce Billson in 2016, it might be thought an under-achievement on Chris Crewther’s part that he failed to hold out the tide, notwithstanding the near universal expectation he would lose. However, his performance was well beyond that predicted by the demographic model, which estimates the Labor margin at 6.6%.
Fraser (Labor 14.2%; 6.1% swing to Liberal): Newly created seat in safe Labor territory in western Melbourne, it seemed Labor felt the loss here of its sitting members: Bill Shorten in Maribyrnong, which provided 34% of the voters; Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell, providing 29%; Tim Watts in Gellibrand, providing 20%; and Brendan O’Connor in Gorton, providing 16%. The newly elected member, Daniel Mulino, copped the biggest swing against Labor in Victoria, reducing the seat from first to eleventh on the national list of safest Labor seats.
Gellibrand (Labor 14.8%; 0.3% swing to Liberal): The city end of Gellibrand followed the inner urban pattern in swinging to Labor, but the suburbia at the Point Cook end of the electorate tended to lean the other way, producing a stable result for third-term Labor member Tim Watts.
Goldstein (Liberal 7.8%; 4.9% swing to Labor): Tim Wilson met the full force of the inner urban swing against the Liberals, more than accounting for any sophomore effect he might have enjoyed in the seat where he succeeded Andrew Robb in 2016. Nonetheless, he maintained a primary vote majority in a seat which, since its creation in 1984, has only failed to do when David Kemp muscled Ian Macphee aside in 1990.
Gorton (Labor 15.4%; 3.0% swing to Liberal): The swing against Brendan O’Connor was fairly typical of the outer suburbs. An independent, Jarrod Bingham, managed 8.8%, with 59.2% of his preferences going to Labor.
Higgins (Liberal 3.9%; 6.1% swing to Labor): One of many blue-ribbon seats that swung hard against the Liberals without putting them in serious danger. Nonetheless, it is notable that the 3.9% debut margin for Katie Allen, who succeeds Kelly O’Dwyer, is the lowest the Liberals have recorded since the seat’s creation in 1949, surpassing Peter Costello’s 7.0% with the defeat of the Howard government in 2007. Labor returned to second place after falling to third in 2016, their primary up from 14.9% to 25.4%, while the Greens were down from 25.3% to 22.5%. This reflected a pattern through much of inner Melbourne, excepting Melbourne and Kooyong.
Holt (Labor 8.7%; 1.2% swing to Liberal): The populous, northern end of Holt formed part of a band of south-eastern suburbia that defied the Melbourne trend in swinging to Liberal, causing a manageable cut to Anthony Byrne’s margin.
Hotham (Labor 5.9%; 1.7% swing to Labor): The swing to third-term Labor member Clare O’Neil was concentrated at the northern end of the electorate, with the lower-income Vietnamese area around Springvale in the south went the other way.
Isaacs (Labor 12.7%; 3.4% swing to Labor): What I have frequently referred to as an inner urban effect actually extended all along the bayside, contributing to a healthy swing to Mark Dreyfus. The Liberal primary vote was down 7.4%, partly reflecting more minor party competition than in 2016. This was an interesting case where the map shows a clear change in temperature coinciding with the boundaries, with swings to Labor in Isaacs promptly giving way to Liberal swings across much of Hotham, Bruce and Holt.
Jagajaga (Labor 6.6%; 1.0% swing to Labor): Jenny Macklin’s retirement didn’t have any discernible impact on the result in Jagajaga, which recorded a modest swing to her Labor successor, Kate Thwaites.
Kooyong (Liberal 5.7% versus Greens): Julian Burnside defied a general Melburnian trend in adding 2.6% to the Greens primary vote, and did so in the face of competition for the environmental vote from independent Oliver Yates, whose high profile campaign yielded only 9.0%. Labor was down 3.7% to 16.8%, adrift of Burnside’s 21.2%. But with Josh Frydenberg still commanding 49.4% of the primary vote even after an 8.3% swing, the result was never in doubt. The Liberal-versus-Labor two-party margin was 6.7%, a 6.2% swing to Labor.
Lalor (Labor 12.4%; 1.8% swing to Liberal): The area around Werribee marks a Liberal swing hot spot in Melbourne’s west, showing up as a slight swing in Lalor against Labor’s Joanne Ryan.
Macnamara (Labor 6.2%; 5.0% swing to Labor): Talked up before the event as a three-horse race, this proved an easy win for Labor, who outpolled the Greens 31.8% to 24.2%, compared with 27.0% to 23.8% last time, then landed 6.2% clear after preferences of the Liberals, who were off 4.6% to 37.4%. The retirement of Michael Danby presumably explains the relatively weak 5.0% primary vote swing to Labor in the seven booths around Caulfield and Elsternwick at the southern end of the electorate, the focal point of its Jewish community. The result for the remainder of the election day booths was 9.7%.
Maribyrnong (Labor 11.2%; 0.8% swing to Liberal): Nothing out of the ordinary happened in the seat of Bill Shorten, who probably owes most of his 5.0% primary vote swing to the fact that there were fewer candidates this time. Typifying the overall result, the Liberals gained swings around Keilor at the electorate’s outer reaches, while Labor was up closer to the city.
Melbourne (Greens 21.8% versus Liberal; 2.8% swing to Greens): The Greens primary vote in Melbourne increased for the seventh successive election, having gone from 6.1% in 1998 to 22.8% when Adam Bandt first ran unsuccessfully in 2007, and now up from 43.7% to 49.3%. I await to be corrected, but I believed this brought Bandt to within an ace of becoming the first Green ever to win a primary vote majority. For the second election in a row, Bandt’s dominance of the left-of-centre vote reduced Labor to third place. On the Labor-versus-Liberal count, Labor gained a negligible 0.1% swing, unusually for a central city seat.
Menzies (Liberal 7.2%; 0.3% swing to Labor): Very little to report from Kevin Andrews’ seat, where the main parties were up slightly on the primary vote against a smaller field, and next to no swing on two-party preferred, with slight Liberal swings around Templestowe in the west of the electorate giving way to slight Labor ones around Warrandyte in the east.
Scullin (Labor 21.7%; 2.1% swing to Labor): Third-term Labor member Andrew Giles managed a swing that was rather against the outer urban trend in his northern Melbourne seat.
Wills (Labor 8.2% versus Greens; 3.2% swing to Labor): The Greens likely missed their opportunity in Wills when Kelvin Thomson retired in 2016, when Labor’s margin was reduced to 4.9%. Peter Khalil having established himself as member, he picked up 6.2% on the primary vote this time while the Greens fell 4.3%. Khalil also picked up a 4.2% swing on the Labor-versus-Liberal count, strong even by inner urban standards, leaving him with the biggest margin on that measure after Ged Kearney in Cooper.
BK; Mavis:
The Savva podcast was indeed interesting, and concerning.
Why do I have the word “zealotry”running in my mind along with an adaptation of Handel’s great anthem, “”Zadok the Priest” which advises me that :
Zadok the priest,
And Nathan the prophet
Anointed Morrison, King
And all the people
Rejoiced….
Victoria,
see my 11.26am post re “The Family” and Richard Fidler’s interview with Nikki Savva.
BK,
Have you seen “The Family” on Netflix? The interview with Nikki Savva makes me think of secretive links.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/08/09/call-board-melbourne/comment-page-18/#comment-3233576
The Commonwealth has the power to give the states and local governments enough money and to replace their taxes but it won`t use it because it does not get enough of the political benefit but more of the political pain under that system.
State and local government`s need to raise their own taxes because they have the most incentive to properly fund themselves. There are also some tax measures (like property vacancy taxes) that are desirable in some areas but not others and the Commonwealth is bared from such taxes (with amending the Constitution too likely to fail to be the sensible sollution).
sprocket_
says:
Monday, August 12, 2019 at 12:51 pm
Barney, why not try the heart of Javanese halus culture, in Solo and Jogjakarta? It really puts a perspective on the outer islands.
———————————
And Barney now that you presumably have a Kitas, a trip to Jogja & Borobudur becomes a real bargain. Nothing like the USD25 entry fee for the privilege of entering Borobudur via an air conditioned gift shop that international passport holders must do, rather you can now pay less than one-tenth that and go via the locals turnstile in the side fence.
Read Joe Stiglitz in relation to “the Henry George Theorem” – local govt raising land tax (unimproved land value) has very interesting and desirable properties
I like you, Red Ted.
Read Joe Stiglitz in relation to “the Henry George Theorem” – local govt raising land tax (unimproved land value) has very interesting and desirable properties
I like you, Red Ted.
Sorry for the double-up peeps. I’m jet-laaaaaaged.
Qasar
I am half way through “The Family”. It concerned me very much and it did spring to mind during th Savva interview.
Nothing secretive about Savva’s links to Turnbull. Her husband, Vince Woolcock, worked directly for Turnbull as one of his inner sanctum of political advisors.
Can’t have been too good an advisor, though.
kaffeeklatscher @ #557 Monday, August 12th, 2019 – 2:56 pm
Zo, after ze Kaffee, your Gravatar becomes that beloved NZ kinderspiel ze buzzzzzzzy bee?
BB,
The secretive nature I was referring to is the modus operandi of “The Family” showing on Netflix , the religious mafia, and not Savva.
rhwombat
Ya , although after ze All Blacks v Wallabies maybe not for some time. Perhaps something else , Andrew_Earlwood tells me Warsaw is nice at this time of year 🙂
No Wallaby fan in their right mind is getting carried away with that win.
Simon Katich
No Wallaby fan in their right mind would not dine out on it at every possible opportunity. Make hay while the sun shines, winter may be long and bleak.
My Slovenian boss is a mad rugby convert. He’s never seen Aus win a Bledisloe, but he thinks this is the turn of the tide, the swing of the pendulum the beginning of something…
He’ll learn.
And Israel Folau’s court case starts tomorrow. 🙂
Okay, so Ireland tells BJ to feck off. Scotland tells BJ to fook off. BJ calls a snap election when Westminster tells BJ and the Brexit Hardliners to sod off. BJ ‘wins’ the election based upon his ‘People versus the Parliament’ election slogan, however this is cold comfort as he becomes the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, as Ireland and Scotland decide to stay with the EU. And even Northern Ireland and Eire decide to join together as one!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/11/ireland-tells-boris-johnson-there-will-be-no-backstop-renegotiation
Popcorn please! 😀
And now BJ will take a page out of the Trump/Putin playbook and grossly abuse his power in some horridly distasteful way. And the more-decent actors will stand aside and let him do it, because propriety or something.
Mavis Davis says:
Monday, August 12, 2019 at 3:22 pm
Why would anyone bother? Wrestling with pigs etc.
It is quite strange that people think that Leaving the EU is a terrible idea for the UK but Scotland leaving the UK is a great idea.
I fully support the UK leaving the EU and if the Scots or anyone else want to leave the UK then good luck to them.
When Labor’s in government, Labor runs the economy.
When the LNP is in government the Reserve Bank runs the economy.
Who knew.
I was in a room full of kiwis for the 2003 semifinal. I assure you I had a 5 course meal on it. With all the trimmings.
I met someone at a soccer match yesterday, who introduced himself as someone I’d engaged with on twitter.
Half way through the conversation, I remembered I’d blocked him….
Bucephalus @ #921 Monday, August 12th, 2019 – 5:02 pm
You no doubt supported Montenegro, Serbia, etc splitting apart because it made them ‘stronger’?
I would also have to assume that you are a fan of the Classical Greek concept of Nation States?
I’m a bit late to the party, but Peggy Granville-Hicks donated her house as a composers residence.
https://www.pghcomposershouse.com/
mundo
Well the Treasury/Reserve Bank has the bullshit down pat. Every year for bloody years we get a Treasurer rolling out their crap about YUGE (relatively) wage increases starting roll out in 12-18 months, let the good times roll.
I was in Auckland the weekend of 27th July.The bar in the hotel where I was staying was somewhat subdued after the Eels defeated the Warriors and then the All Blacks drew with South Africa,all this following less than a fortnight after the Cricket World Cup.
“Andrew_Earlwood tells me Warsaw is nice at this time of year ”
I think ze Germans traditionally prefer early September …
This would be about the fourth or fifth time we have gone to NZ having won test one with a chance to win the Bledisloe since 2001.
We lose by an average of 20+ points
“I fully support the UK leaving the EU and if the Scots or anyone else want to leave the UK then good luck to them.”
All hail the Kingdoms of Northumbria and of the Britons and Dumnonia!
If Cameron had been smart he would have borrowed the Australian referendum model. 🙂
Simon Katich says:
Monday, August 12, 2019 at 3:34 pm
I probably beat that just by myself. Checking the specs, I weigh more than the bike. 🙂
I am just so happy that our little cousins across the ditch are good at something.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #599 Monday, August 12th, 2019 – 5:26 pm
After their experience of the Guns of August?
The referendum was designed to please Brexiteers in the Tory Party, so they got a simple referendum with simple Parliamentary franchise. No veto for the different parts of the UK, no vote for British Citizens in the EU but not qualifying for a vote in Parliament (there is a limit of 15 years after leaving the UK for voting in Parliament) and no vote for non-Ireland non-Commonwealth EU citizens resident in the UK. Gibraltar was however given a vote (it has no Westminster representation) because it is part of the UK`s EU membership.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-12/grace-tame-speaks-about-abuse-from-schoolteacher/11393044
Bucephalus says:
Monday, August 12, 2019 at 5:02 pm
It is quite strange that people think that Leaving the EU is a terrible idea for the UK but Scotland leaving the UK is a great idea.
I fully support the UK leaving the EU and if the Scots or anyone else want to leave the UK then good luck to them.
If he scots can swing it they will remain in the EU and England will sink in obscurity all by itself.
Associated story
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/sex-therapist-bettina-arndt-responds-to-critics-over-sex-offender-interview/news-story/145989d684d18861e599e2ca8dbe18e2
C@tmomma says:
Monday, August 12, 2019 at 5:18 pm
“You no doubt supported Montenegro, Serbia, etc splitting apart because it made them ‘stronger’?”
Doesn’t particularly bother me whether or not it makes them stronger – just if it can be done peacefully and democratically. If the majority in an area want to do it then good luck (but I’m not talking about stupid things like the “Hutt River Province”.
Nations are generally a group of people who share similar culture. You could argue that NZ should be a State of Australia but they don’t want to be so good luck to them. Then again it wouldn’t bother me if any State in Australia decided to leave the Federation and become an independent sovereign nation.
If I looked half as idiotic as this goofball I don’t know if I would ever leave the house, and that’s before we even start on his politics. I’ve never seen a finer example of a Twit of the Year over-entitled durr brain.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/12/nigel-farage-prince-harry-meghan-markle-overweight-queen-mother-cpac-brexit
Well I enjoyed it much more than the reviewer
https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/theatre/astronomical-play-spins-on-its-own-axis-20190808-p52f20.html
“Should you be heading down Dean Street, then the last house (700 Dean Street), opposite the Botanic Gardens, right at the bottom of ‘Monument Hill’, is my birthplace. No plaque or anything. Yet. ”
I ran past 700 Dean St on dusk (its a lovely colonial bungalow too). You are correct Itza – there is no plaque or anything.
A reason the English Parliament at Westminster is so against the Scots dissolving the Union is the effect on the pound of losing Scottish oil.
The United Kingdom is a very odd Union indeed.
The English totally controlling Westminster can dissolve the Union any time they wish without even a requirement to consult the other nations in the Union. Yet they believe they have the “power and right” to forbid the Scots to even have a vote on whether they want to leave this constraining and undemocratic union and remain in the far more accommodating European Union.
swamprat,
What if Scotland decides it wants to remain in the EU?
Great Britain is a quite logical union. A single large island and surrounding associated islands that have a common language (even though parts have other languages).
Tom the first and best @ #946 Monday, August 12th, 2019 – 6:38 pm
The problem with that scenario is that Ireland and Scotland have gotten a taste for the EU and would much rather stay with it than Remain in Boris’ Britain.
“Yet they believe they have the “power and right” to forbid the Scots to even have a vote on whether they want to leave this constraining and undemocratic union and remain in the far more accommodating European Union.”
Ah. Culloden Moor. Fancy another go round? Maybe we can have a rerun of the Battle of the Boyne as well. And the Battle of Orewin Bridge.
Isn’t devolution such fun!
Thank you, Tom. Good points.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #948 Monday, August 12th, 2019 – 6:43 pm
Will they rise again?