Time for part four in the series that reviews the result of the May 18 election seat by seat, one chunk at a time. As will be the routine in posts covering the capital cities, we start with a colour-coded map showing the two-party preferred swing at polling booth level, with each booth allocated a geographic catchment area by means explained in the first post in this series. Click for an enlarged image.
Now to compare actual election results to those predicted by a demographic linear regression model, to help identify where candidate or local factors might be needed to explain the result. I now offer a new-and-improved form of the model that includes interaction effects to account for the differences in demographic effects between the cities and the regions. The utility of the change, if any, will become more apparent when I apply it to regional seats, which confounded the original version of the model. The coefficients and what-have-you can be viewed here – the table below shows the modelled predictions and actual results for Labor two-party preferred, ranked in order of difference between the result and the prediction of the model.
The main eyebrow-raisers are that the model anticipates a stronger performance by Labor in nearly every Liberal-held seats, to the extent that blue-ribbon Higgins and Goldstein are both rated as naturally highly marginal. While this could prove a portent of things to come in these seats, it might equally reflect a model leaning too heavily on the “secular/no religion” variable to cancel out the association between income and Liberal support in the inner cities.
As in Sydney, the numbers provide strong indications of incumbency advantages, with both Labor and Liberal members tending to outperform the model and thus appear at opposite ends of the table. I suspect this reflects both the obvious explanation, namely personal votes for sitting members, and a lack of effort by the parties into each other’s safe seats. A tendency for parties to perform more modestly when a seat is being vacated is not so overwhelming as to prevent strong results relative to the model for Labor in Jagajaga and Liberal in Higgins.
With that out of the way:
Aston (Liberal 10.1%; 2.7% swing to Liberal): Aston attracted a lot of discussion after the 2004 election when the Liberals recorded a higher two-party vote than they did in their jewel-in-the-crown seat of Kooyong. Now, for the first time since then, it’s happened again, and by a fairly substantial margin (the Liberal-versus-Labor margin in Kooyong having been 6.7%). As illustrated in the above table, the swing places Alan Tudge’s margin well beyond what the seat’s demographic indicators would lead you to expect.
Bruce (Labor 14.2%; 0.1% swing to Labor): Located at the point of the outer suburbs where the Labor swing dries up, cancelling out any half-sophomore effect that may have been coming Julian Hill’s way after he came to the seat in 2016.
Calwell (Labor 18.8%; 0.9% swing to Liberal): Among the modest number of Melbourne seats to swing to the Liberals, reflecting its multiculturalism and location at the city’s edge. Maria Vamvakinou nonetheless retains the fifth biggest Labor margin in the country.
Chisholm (Liberal 0.6%; 2.3% swing to Labor): Labor’s failure to win Chisholm after it was vacated by Julia Banks was among their most disappointing results of the election, but the result was entirely within the normal range both for Melbourne’s middle suburbs and a seat of its particular demographic profile. The swing to Labor was concentrated at the northern end of the electorate, which may or may not have something to do with this being the slightly less Chinese end of the electorate.
Cooper (Labor 14.6% versus Greens; 13.4% swing to Labor): With David Feeney gone and Ged Kearney entrenched, the door seems to have slammed shut on the Greens in the seat formerly known as Batman. After recording high thirties primary votes at both the 2016 election and 2018 by-election, the Greens crashed to 21.1%, while Kearney was up from 43.1% at the by-election to 46.8%, despite the fact the Liberals were in the field this time and polling 19.5%. In Labor-versus-Liberal terms, a 4.2% swing to Labor boosted the margin to 25.9%, the highest in the country.
Deakin (Liberal 4.8%; 1.7% swing to Labor): While Melburnian backers of the coup against Malcolm Turnbull did not suffer the retribution anticipated after the state election, it may at least be noted that Michael Sukkar’s seat swung the other way from its demographically similar neighbour, Aston. That said, Sukkar’s 4.8% margin strongly outperforms the prediction of the demographic model, which picks the seat for marginal Labor.
Dunkley (LABOR NOTIONAL GAIN 2.7%; 1.7% swing to Labor): Together with Corangamite, Dunkley was one of only two Victorian seats gained by Labor on any reckoning, and even they can be excluded if post-redistribution margins are counted as the starting point. With quite a few other outer urban seats going the other way, and a part-sophomore effect to be anticipated after he succeeded Bruce Billson in 2016, it might be thought an under-achievement on Chris Crewther’s part that he failed to hold out the tide, notwithstanding the near universal expectation he would lose. However, his performance was well beyond that predicted by the demographic model, which estimates the Labor margin at 6.6%.
Fraser (Labor 14.2%; 6.1% swing to Liberal): Newly created seat in safe Labor territory in western Melbourne, it seemed Labor felt the loss here of its sitting members: Bill Shorten in Maribyrnong, which provided 34% of the voters; Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell, providing 29%; Tim Watts in Gellibrand, providing 20%; and Brendan O’Connor in Gorton, providing 16%. The newly elected member, Daniel Mulino, copped the biggest swing against Labor in Victoria, reducing the seat from first to eleventh on the national list of safest Labor seats.
Gellibrand (Labor 14.8%; 0.3% swing to Liberal): The city end of Gellibrand followed the inner urban pattern in swinging to Labor, but the suburbia at the Point Cook end of the electorate tended to lean the other way, producing a stable result for third-term Labor member Tim Watts.
Goldstein (Liberal 7.8%; 4.9% swing to Labor): Tim Wilson met the full force of the inner urban swing against the Liberals, more than accounting for any sophomore effect he might have enjoyed in the seat where he succeeded Andrew Robb in 2016. Nonetheless, he maintained a primary vote majority in a seat which, since its creation in 1984, has only failed to do when David Kemp muscled Ian Macphee aside in 1990.
Gorton (Labor 15.4%; 3.0% swing to Liberal): The swing against Brendan O’Connor was fairly typical of the outer suburbs. An independent, Jarrod Bingham, managed 8.8%, with 59.2% of his preferences going to Labor.
Higgins (Liberal 3.9%; 6.1% swing to Labor): One of many blue-ribbon seats that swung hard against the Liberals without putting them in serious danger. Nonetheless, it is notable that the 3.9% debut margin for Katie Allen, who succeeds Kelly O’Dwyer, is the lowest the Liberals have recorded since the seat’s creation in 1949, surpassing Peter Costello’s 7.0% with the defeat of the Howard government in 2007. Labor returned to second place after falling to third in 2016, their primary up from 14.9% to 25.4%, while the Greens were down from 25.3% to 22.5%. This reflected a pattern through much of inner Melbourne, excepting Melbourne and Kooyong.
Holt (Labor 8.7%; 1.2% swing to Liberal): The populous, northern end of Holt formed part of a band of south-eastern suburbia that defied the Melbourne trend in swinging to Liberal, causing a manageable cut to Anthony Byrne’s margin.
Hotham (Labor 5.9%; 1.7% swing to Labor): The swing to third-term Labor member Clare O’Neil was concentrated at the northern end of the electorate, with the lower-income Vietnamese area around Springvale in the south went the other way.
Isaacs (Labor 12.7%; 3.4% swing to Labor): What I have frequently referred to as an inner urban effect actually extended all along the bayside, contributing to a healthy swing to Mark Dreyfus. The Liberal primary vote was down 7.4%, partly reflecting more minor party competition than in 2016. This was an interesting case where the map shows a clear change in temperature coinciding with the boundaries, with swings to Labor in Isaacs promptly giving way to Liberal swings across much of Hotham, Bruce and Holt.
Jagajaga (Labor 6.6%; 1.0% swing to Labor): Jenny Macklin’s retirement didn’t have any discernible impact on the result in Jagajaga, which recorded a modest swing to her Labor successor, Kate Thwaites.
Kooyong (Liberal 5.7% versus Greens): Julian Burnside defied a general Melburnian trend in adding 2.6% to the Greens primary vote, and did so in the face of competition for the environmental vote from independent Oliver Yates, whose high profile campaign yielded only 9.0%. Labor was down 3.7% to 16.8%, adrift of Burnside’s 21.2%. But with Josh Frydenberg still commanding 49.4% of the primary vote even after an 8.3% swing, the result was never in doubt. The Liberal-versus-Labor two-party margin was 6.7%, a 6.2% swing to Labor.
Lalor (Labor 12.4%; 1.8% swing to Liberal): The area around Werribee marks a Liberal swing hot spot in Melbourne’s west, showing up as a slight swing in Lalor against Labor’s Joanne Ryan.
Macnamara (Labor 6.2%; 5.0% swing to Labor): Talked up before the event as a three-horse race, this proved an easy win for Labor, who outpolled the Greens 31.8% to 24.2%, compared with 27.0% to 23.8% last time, then landed 6.2% clear after preferences of the Liberals, who were off 4.6% to 37.4%. The retirement of Michael Danby presumably explains the relatively weak 5.0% primary vote swing to Labor in the seven booths around Caulfield and Elsternwick at the southern end of the electorate, the focal point of its Jewish community. The result for the remainder of the election day booths was 9.7%.
Maribyrnong (Labor 11.2%; 0.8% swing to Liberal): Nothing out of the ordinary happened in the seat of Bill Shorten, who probably owes most of his 5.0% primary vote swing to the fact that there were fewer candidates this time. Typifying the overall result, the Liberals gained swings around Keilor at the electorate’s outer reaches, while Labor was up closer to the city.
Melbourne (Greens 21.8% versus Liberal; 2.8% swing to Greens): The Greens primary vote in Melbourne increased for the seventh successive election, having gone from 6.1% in 1998 to 22.8% when Adam Bandt first ran unsuccessfully in 2007, and now up from 43.7% to 49.3%. I await to be corrected, but I believed this brought Bandt to within an ace of becoming the first Green ever to win a primary vote majority. For the second election in a row, Bandt’s dominance of the left-of-centre vote reduced Labor to third place. On the Labor-versus-Liberal count, Labor gained a negligible 0.1% swing, unusually for a central city seat.
Menzies (Liberal 7.2%; 0.3% swing to Labor): Very little to report from Kevin Andrews’ seat, where the main parties were up slightly on the primary vote against a smaller field, and next to no swing on two-party preferred, with slight Liberal swings around Templestowe in the west of the electorate giving way to slight Labor ones around Warrandyte in the east.
Scullin (Labor 21.7%; 2.1% swing to Labor): Third-term Labor member Andrew Giles managed a swing that was rather against the outer urban trend in his northern Melbourne seat.
Wills (Labor 8.2% versus Greens; 3.2% swing to Labor): The Greens likely missed their opportunity in Wills when Kelvin Thomson retired in 2016, when Labor’s margin was reduced to 4.9%. Peter Khalil having established himself as member, he picked up 6.2% on the primary vote this time while the Greens fell 4.3%. Khalil also picked up a 4.2% swing on the Labor-versus-Liberal count, strong even by inner urban standards, leaving him with the biggest margin on that measure after Ged Kearney in Cooper.
BB
It is the other side of that range I wanted to hike around. Stunning area. And as Barney says, diverse cultures.
Take a look at the Fly River in PNG. It starts up around the Ok Tedi mine. As you google map south along the river… try to find evidence of human habitation. 1000kms. No towns. No roads. A few scattered villages. One of the few truly natural and large scale landscapes left in the world. An Amazon basin, smaller but less spoilt, right on our doorstep.
Simon Katich says:
Monday, August 12, 2019 at 11:18 am
The words “travel” and “fast” do not seem to exist in Indonesia unless also accompanied by “death.”
I’m not sure where I’ll get to here, so many choices and working limits the opportunities.
Borneo’s high on the list, especially before they decide to relocate the Capital there, and I’ve heard some good things about some of the western islands. 🙂
Simon,
If I had the stamina, money and fitness I’d also love to have a look at the romantically-named Mountains Of The Moon in Uganda.
There’s an addictive YouTube of a walk through them here (in glorious HD): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNDoMBDDyAE
There’s something about cold, stark, rocky places on or near to the equator that calls me with a veritable siren song.
Desert lakes are another. Seeing Lake Eyre full, so big it went way past the horizon, was an unforgettable experience. There are some amazing, lost, gigantic lonely lakes in Central Asia too.
I can hear that music again.
Dad would hold out a penny and a threepence in his hand as went for a walk to the shops. I’d always take the penny.
Slow travel is fine, except when accompanied by 3 times the number of people that the bus is rated for -not including the smelly livestock, one of which you agreed to have on your lap.
Yes, I found some of those lonely lakes.
Lake Eyre is something. I somehow got over my dislike for light aircraft there.
There must be lots of CCTV of the prison cells Epstein was in. I bet it was a stuffup due to slack procedures not being followed.
We don’t do memorials that well. Perhaps the shortness of our history and lack of perspective, or a tall poppy thing.
Take Patrick White’s house in Centennial Park. A Nobel Laureate. We don’t have many of them. And one immortalised for posterity with the brilliant line, if nothing else, about returning his Queen’s Birthday honours – ‘so I sent the seductive bauble back’. It could have been bought by the State, and made into a writer’s residential, or literary museum. Whatever.
Or Joan Sutherland’s house in Woollahra. When it came on the market, the thought that it could become a music or song centre, part research, museum, whatever, came to mind. I managed to make contact with the grand Dame. Nought came of it, though I did get an email from her. !!
That said, MOH grew up in a house of Lawrence Hargrave which actually does have a plaque out front to that effect. Invention is a thing in him too. Spooky.
Simon Katich says:
Monday, August 12, 2019 at 12:01 pm
Chicken bus memories! 🙂
One of my favourites is the animal unknowingly hidden under your seat that suddenly and very noisily wakes up a few hours into the trip. “What the Fuck!!!” 😆
Chickens. Lambs. Goats.
May Gibbs place is nice.
Simon Katich says:
Monday, August 12, 2019 at 12:16 pm
We just had Eid yesterday, so goats are in short supply while goat blood is a common sight on the streets. 🙂
Simon Katich @ #860 Monday, August 12th, 2019 – 12:17 pm
Exactly. Good point. Thanks; I’d forgotten.
Here’s an optimist. I sincerely hope he’s on the right track.
Pioneer Molly Clarke’s house in the Simpson (Old Andado) is lovingly maintained. A special place.
Barney, why not try the heart of Javanese halus culture, in Solo and Jogjakarta? It really puts a perspective on the outer islands.
Speaking of chicken buses, I can recall being on a bus in East Java and they stopped at a restaurant. I was foolishly about to have some of the tasty looking fried chicken they put on the table, when I noticed the first piece I picked up had a paw.
Andrew_Earlwood
It is all Bill Shorten’s fault. The cunning plan involved Fed Labor being in power when the shit hits the fan and blaming them for EVERYTHING. All such claims of course to be backed to the hilt by 2GB and The Daily Shitsheet.
On the long drive home from seeing my mother I heard Conversations with Richard Fiedler interviewing Niki Savva about the way Morrison took power from Turnbull.
It was well worth listening to.
Here’s the podcast https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/conversations/niki-savva/11385738
It’s great to see Texas taking firm, effective action on guns.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/07/us/texas-gun-laws-el-paso-shooting-trnd/index.html
What is WRONG with that country?
@BK only after how many mass shootings in Texas?
One great thing about travelling and living abroad is the need to adapt to constant change and difference.
Sometimes, still, you can be the first to do something.
The other week, I was the first native speaker to visit a school a couple of hours from Makassar.
Currently I’m sitting in a Yamaha dealer trying to buy a motorbike, while they’re trying to work out if they’re allowed to sell me one. 🙂
And aren’t the right pissed off with Gladys
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/berejiklian-not-surprised-by-upset-angry-mps-20190812-p52g5h.html
BK @ #869 Monday, August 12th, 2019 – 1:14 pm
What’s wrong with guns in churches and schools? Just asking for a completely inadequate tiny dicked redneck.
BK @1.14:
Your link to ABC and my own attempt to access the Fidler-Sava interview on my PC and my I-Pad tells me that the audio for the program is not available.
Was the content such as to possibly bring legal activity, or immediate interest from ” people on high ” ?
BL
Maybe try again a little later, The program had only just finished when I linked it.
BK:
Will do so. Thank you.
Was probably being too conspiratorially cynical.
Epstein’s alleged protector, procurer:
[‘Her father was Robert Maxwell, a British member of Parliament and book and newspaper publisher who was regularly on the front pages until he died mysteriously in 1991 aboard the Lady Ghislaine, a yacht he had named for his youngest daughter.’]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/epsteins-accusers-call-her-his-protector-and-procurer-is-ghislaine-maxwell-now-prosecutors-target/2019/08/11/7af5968a-bbbd-11e9-a091-6a96e67d9cce_story.html
You were correct as ever BK. It’s up now. About to listen.
BL
Good. You’ll find Savva quite likeable in it.
As a socialite there are a lot of photos of her with VIPs. This story has a ways to run.
Simon Katich:
[‘As a socialite there are a lot of photos of her with VIPs. This story has a way to run.’]
If her accusers are to be believed, she looks like she’ll be sent to the slammer for a good many years.
She seems to have inherited some of her old man’s dubious habits.
Mavis Davis says: Monday, August 12, 2019 at 2:21 pm
Simon Katich:
[‘As a socialite there are a lot of photos of her with VIPs. This story has a way to run.’]
If her accusers are to be believed, she looks like she’ll be sent to the slammer for a good many years.
*****************************************************
Do they know where she is Mavis ?????? …….
Powerful men across the world will be checking to see if photos of them with their arm around her are in the public domain.
Will she turn witness?
@kaffeeklatscher:
Your sign in name sounds German (I won’t mention the war) and – according to google – seems to have something to do with the gathering of coffee.
Please explain yourself!
That I don’t know, Phoenix, but I think she lives in the US.
Simon, that would be an option for her. She knows the ins and outs of Epstein’s personal life. If she does roll-over, she’ll need to enter witness protection. Her evidence has the potential, for example, to bring down a prince of the realm, numerous others A-listers.
Savva was pushing Truffles’ line that he was on track to win the 2019 election when he was taken out.
I tuned out shortly after that.
How good is ScoMo! Blessed be the fruit.
“Simon, that would be an option for her. She knows the ins and outs of Epstein’s personal life. If she does roll-over, she’ll need to enter witness protection. Her evidence has the potential, for example, to bring down a prince of the realm, numerous others A-listers.”
It seems alleged that she did more than simply procure young girls. It is alleged that she and Epstein abused them together.
Nicholas:
Read Joe Stiglitz in relation to “the Henry George Theorem” – local govt raising land tax (unimproved land value) has very interesting and desirable properties
Mavis Davis says: Monday, August 12, 2019 at 2:40 pm
That I don’t know, Phoenix, but I think she lives in the US.
Simon, that would be an option for her. She knows the ins and outs of Epstein’s personal life. If she does roll-over, she’ll need to enter witness protection. Her evidence has the potential, for example, to bring down a prince of the realm, numerous others A-listers.
****************************************************
Ok Thanks Mavis – I am sure she must be feeling quite uneasy with who she is and what she knows. As Victoria hinted this morning there are a lot of rich and powerful people perhaps involved who want to see this shut down.
There seems to be a lot of ‘intelligence” sources linked to Maxwell/Epstein if what is being reported with digging deeper into their respective lives
Maybe there will be more extradition fun
Andrew_Earlwood
Here ya go
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/coffee_klatch
This little excerpt from Ex-NSA John Schindlers column ::
Who are the suspects then? It seems awfully coincidental that Epstein’s best pal and business partner for decades has been Ghislaine Maxwell, the British socialite and daughter of the late Robert Maxwell, the media mogul who died under mysterious circumstances in 1991. Something of a Bond villain turned real life, Maxwell loved the limelight, despite being a swindler and a spy. British counterintelligence assessed that Maxwell was working for the KGB, while pervasive allegations that he was working for Mossad too are equally plausible.
It Sure Looks Like Jeffrey Epstein Was a Spy—But Whose?
https://observer.com/2019/07/jeffrey-epstein-spy-intelligence-work/
Andrew_Earlwood:
[‘It seems alleged that she did more than simply procure young girls. It is alleged that she and Epstein abused them together.’]
Yes, that’s an allegation by at least one of the complainants.
phoenixRED:
On reading the article again, it seems Maxwell’s whereabouts are unknown. Once found, most likely in the UK, she should be the subject of an extradition proceeding.
BK
He normally is a good interviewer however in this case he was extremely poor. Savva is an anti-Conservative activist completely in the thrall of Turnbull. None of her unattributed claims were tested – just accepted as truth.
Yes, finally I’m mobile. 😆
phoenixRed:
[‘Ok Thanks Mavis – I am sure she must be feeling quite uneasy with who she is and what she knows.’]
She might take the easy way out, like her co-conspirator. Alternatively, she may go to a country that doesn’t have an extradition treaty with the US. Russia may take her, given her father may’ve spied for the KGB.
“A social gathering for conversation while drinking coffee.”
Presumably to discuss mass motorised lightening trips to Warsaw …
BK:
That Savva podcast was most interesting and proceeded on the basis that the Tories would lose the election. Since the release of her book, I note none of the participants, to the best of my knowledge, have denied the veracity of what she wrote, discussed. And, I liked her appraisal of Morrison’s character, which was most unflattering but nevertheless true.
There are some state and local taxes that have useful effects such as encouraging efficient use of resources, reducing inequality of wealth and income, nudging people’s and firms’ behaviours in socially useful directions. The federal government could levy those taxes instead. Raising revenue should not be a task that state and local governments have to pursue – it is a waste of their time, and the financial outcomes of the taxes are arbitrary. The taxes are useful for the effects I’ve mentioned above. For example, a tax on alcohol is designed to reduce consumption of alcohol. If consumption of alcohol declines because of the tax, the tax receipts decline, which should be seen as a success but instead is a problem for a revenue-raising government because the government has service and infrastructure commitments that remain or grow over time regardless of what is happening to the various state and local taxes. The federal government, which levies taxes to delete private sector spending power, not to raise revenue, can provide all of the funding that the state and local governments need.
Safe driving.
