Time for part four in the series that reviews the result of the May 18 election seat by seat, one chunk at a time. As will be the routine in posts covering the capital cities, we start with a colour-coded map showing the two-party preferred swing at polling booth level, with each booth allocated a geographic catchment area by means explained in the first post in this series. Click for an enlarged image.
Now to compare actual election results to those predicted by a demographic linear regression model, to help identify where candidate or local factors might be needed to explain the result. I now offer a new-and-improved form of the model that includes interaction effects to account for the differences in demographic effects between the cities and the regions. The utility of the change, if any, will become more apparent when I apply it to regional seats, which confounded the original version of the model. The coefficients and what-have-you can be viewed here – the table below shows the modelled predictions and actual results for Labor two-party preferred, ranked in order of difference between the result and the prediction of the model.
The main eyebrow-raisers are that the model anticipates a stronger performance by Labor in nearly every Liberal-held seats, to the extent that blue-ribbon Higgins and Goldstein are both rated as naturally highly marginal. While this could prove a portent of things to come in these seats, it might equally reflect a model leaning too heavily on the “secular/no religion” variable to cancel out the association between income and Liberal support in the inner cities.
As in Sydney, the numbers provide strong indications of incumbency advantages, with both Labor and Liberal members tending to outperform the model and thus appear at opposite ends of the table. I suspect this reflects both the obvious explanation, namely personal votes for sitting members, and a lack of effort by the parties into each other’s safe seats. A tendency for parties to perform more modestly when a seat is being vacated is not so overwhelming as to prevent strong results relative to the model for Labor in Jagajaga and Liberal in Higgins.
With that out of the way:
Aston (Liberal 10.1%; 2.7% swing to Liberal): Aston attracted a lot of discussion after the 2004 election when the Liberals recorded a higher two-party vote than they did in their jewel-in-the-crown seat of Kooyong. Now, for the first time since then, it’s happened again, and by a fairly substantial margin (the Liberal-versus-Labor margin in Kooyong having been 6.7%). As illustrated in the above table, the swing places Alan Tudge’s margin well beyond what the seat’s demographic indicators would lead you to expect.
Bruce (Labor 14.2%; 0.1% swing to Labor): Located at the point of the outer suburbs where the Labor swing dries up, cancelling out any half-sophomore effect that may have been coming Julian Hill’s way after he came to the seat in 2016.
Calwell (Labor 18.8%; 0.9% swing to Liberal): Among the modest number of Melbourne seats to swing to the Liberals, reflecting its multiculturalism and location at the city’s edge. Maria Vamvakinou nonetheless retains the fifth biggest Labor margin in the country.
Chisholm (Liberal 0.6%; 2.3% swing to Labor): Labor’s failure to win Chisholm after it was vacated by Julia Banks was among their most disappointing results of the election, but the result was entirely within the normal range both for Melbourne’s middle suburbs and a seat of its particular demographic profile. The swing to Labor was concentrated at the northern end of the electorate, which may or may not have something to do with this being the slightly less Chinese end of the electorate.
Cooper (Labor 14.6% versus Greens; 13.4% swing to Labor): With David Feeney gone and Ged Kearney entrenched, the door seems to have slammed shut on the Greens in the seat formerly known as Batman. After recording high thirties primary votes at both the 2016 election and 2018 by-election, the Greens crashed to 21.1%, while Kearney was up from 43.1% at the by-election to 46.8%, despite the fact the Liberals were in the field this time and polling 19.5%. In Labor-versus-Liberal terms, a 4.2% swing to Labor boosted the margin to 25.9%, the highest in the country.
Deakin (Liberal 4.8%; 1.7% swing to Labor): While Melburnian backers of the coup against Malcolm Turnbull did not suffer the retribution anticipated after the state election, it may at least be noted that Michael Sukkar’s seat swung the other way from its demographically similar neighbour, Aston. That said, Sukkar’s 4.8% margin strongly outperforms the prediction of the demographic model, which picks the seat for marginal Labor.
Dunkley (LABOR NOTIONAL GAIN 2.7%; 1.7% swing to Labor): Together with Corangamite, Dunkley was one of only two Victorian seats gained by Labor on any reckoning, and even they can be excluded if post-redistribution margins are counted as the starting point. With quite a few other outer urban seats going the other way, and a part-sophomore effect to be anticipated after he succeeded Bruce Billson in 2016, it might be thought an under-achievement on Chris Crewther’s part that he failed to hold out the tide, notwithstanding the near universal expectation he would lose. However, his performance was well beyond that predicted by the demographic model, which estimates the Labor margin at 6.6%.
Fraser (Labor 14.2%; 6.1% swing to Liberal): Newly created seat in safe Labor territory in western Melbourne, it seemed Labor felt the loss here of its sitting members: Bill Shorten in Maribyrnong, which provided 34% of the voters; Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell, providing 29%; Tim Watts in Gellibrand, providing 20%; and Brendan O’Connor in Gorton, providing 16%. The newly elected member, Daniel Mulino, copped the biggest swing against Labor in Victoria, reducing the seat from first to eleventh on the national list of safest Labor seats.
Gellibrand (Labor 14.8%; 0.3% swing to Liberal): The city end of Gellibrand followed the inner urban pattern in swinging to Labor, but the suburbia at the Point Cook end of the electorate tended to lean the other way, producing a stable result for third-term Labor member Tim Watts.
Goldstein (Liberal 7.8%; 4.9% swing to Labor): Tim Wilson met the full force of the inner urban swing against the Liberals, more than accounting for any sophomore effect he might have enjoyed in the seat where he succeeded Andrew Robb in 2016. Nonetheless, he maintained a primary vote majority in a seat which, since its creation in 1984, has only failed to do when David Kemp muscled Ian Macphee aside in 1990.
Gorton (Labor 15.4%; 3.0% swing to Liberal): The swing against Brendan O’Connor was fairly typical of the outer suburbs. An independent, Jarrod Bingham, managed 8.8%, with 59.2% of his preferences going to Labor.
Higgins (Liberal 3.9%; 6.1% swing to Labor): One of many blue-ribbon seats that swung hard against the Liberals without putting them in serious danger. Nonetheless, it is notable that the 3.9% debut margin for Katie Allen, who succeeds Kelly O’Dwyer, is the lowest the Liberals have recorded since the seat’s creation in 1949, surpassing Peter Costello’s 7.0% with the defeat of the Howard government in 2007. Labor returned to second place after falling to third in 2016, their primary up from 14.9% to 25.4%, while the Greens were down from 25.3% to 22.5%. This reflected a pattern through much of inner Melbourne, excepting Melbourne and Kooyong.
Holt (Labor 8.7%; 1.2% swing to Liberal): The populous, northern end of Holt formed part of a band of south-eastern suburbia that defied the Melbourne trend in swinging to Liberal, causing a manageable cut to Anthony Byrne’s margin.
Hotham (Labor 5.9%; 1.7% swing to Labor): The swing to third-term Labor member Clare O’Neil was concentrated at the northern end of the electorate, with the lower-income Vietnamese area around Springvale in the south went the other way.
Isaacs (Labor 12.7%; 3.4% swing to Labor): What I have frequently referred to as an inner urban effect actually extended all along the bayside, contributing to a healthy swing to Mark Dreyfus. The Liberal primary vote was down 7.4%, partly reflecting more minor party competition than in 2016. This was an interesting case where the map shows a clear change in temperature coinciding with the boundaries, with swings to Labor in Isaacs promptly giving way to Liberal swings across much of Hotham, Bruce and Holt.
Jagajaga (Labor 6.6%; 1.0% swing to Labor): Jenny Macklin’s retirement didn’t have any discernible impact on the result in Jagajaga, which recorded a modest swing to her Labor successor, Kate Thwaites.
Kooyong (Liberal 5.7% versus Greens): Julian Burnside defied a general Melburnian trend in adding 2.6% to the Greens primary vote, and did so in the face of competition for the environmental vote from independent Oliver Yates, whose high profile campaign yielded only 9.0%. Labor was down 3.7% to 16.8%, adrift of Burnside’s 21.2%. But with Josh Frydenberg still commanding 49.4% of the primary vote even after an 8.3% swing, the result was never in doubt. The Liberal-versus-Labor two-party margin was 6.7%, a 6.2% swing to Labor.
Lalor (Labor 12.4%; 1.8% swing to Liberal): The area around Werribee marks a Liberal swing hot spot in Melbourne’s west, showing up as a slight swing in Lalor against Labor’s Joanne Ryan.
Macnamara (Labor 6.2%; 5.0% swing to Labor): Talked up before the event as a three-horse race, this proved an easy win for Labor, who outpolled the Greens 31.8% to 24.2%, compared with 27.0% to 23.8% last time, then landed 6.2% clear after preferences of the Liberals, who were off 4.6% to 37.4%. The retirement of Michael Danby presumably explains the relatively weak 5.0% primary vote swing to Labor in the seven booths around Caulfield and Elsternwick at the southern end of the electorate, the focal point of its Jewish community. The result for the remainder of the election day booths was 9.7%.
Maribyrnong (Labor 11.2%; 0.8% swing to Liberal): Nothing out of the ordinary happened in the seat of Bill Shorten, who probably owes most of his 5.0% primary vote swing to the fact that there were fewer candidates this time. Typifying the overall result, the Liberals gained swings around Keilor at the electorate’s outer reaches, while Labor was up closer to the city.
Melbourne (Greens 21.8% versus Liberal; 2.8% swing to Greens): The Greens primary vote in Melbourne increased for the seventh successive election, having gone from 6.1% in 1998 to 22.8% when Adam Bandt first ran unsuccessfully in 2007, and now up from 43.7% to 49.3%. I await to be corrected, but I believed this brought Bandt to within an ace of becoming the first Green ever to win a primary vote majority. For the second election in a row, Bandt’s dominance of the left-of-centre vote reduced Labor to third place. On the Labor-versus-Liberal count, Labor gained a negligible 0.1% swing, unusually for a central city seat.
Menzies (Liberal 7.2%; 0.3% swing to Labor): Very little to report from Kevin Andrews’ seat, where the main parties were up slightly on the primary vote against a smaller field, and next to no swing on two-party preferred, with slight Liberal swings around Templestowe in the west of the electorate giving way to slight Labor ones around Warrandyte in the east.
Scullin (Labor 21.7%; 2.1% swing to Labor): Third-term Labor member Andrew Giles managed a swing that was rather against the outer urban trend in his northern Melbourne seat.
Wills (Labor 8.2% versus Greens; 3.2% swing to Labor): The Greens likely missed their opportunity in Wills when Kelvin Thomson retired in 2016, when Labor’s margin was reduced to 4.9%. Peter Khalil having established himself as member, he picked up 6.2% on the primary vote this time while the Greens fell 4.3%. Khalil also picked up a 4.2% swing on the Labor-versus-Liberal count, strong even by inner urban standards, leaving him with the biggest margin on that measure after Ged Kearney in Cooper.
Scot’ll Fix It. How good is that!?!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/households-feel-pinch-on-jobs-and-wage-concerns-20190810-p52fu6.html
Comment from the Shane Wright article, and my reply beneath it:
Is it me?
3 HOURS AGO
The LNP Government don’t care one bit about this. All they care about is their fake budget surplus…… and to hell with the consequences.
Oh, and guess what? They’ll have to cut more services in the next Budget because Revenue will drop off a cliff now that Vale in South America is back on line and the rivers of Iron Ore gold are running dry, along with our rivers. With no other revenue stream to replace it because we don’t make things any more, we just dig things up out of the ground and then sell them for bargain basement prices to the rest of the world, like our Natural Gas.
Not to mention that we could have had a Resources Rent Tax to bring revenue into the treasury but that was killed off as well by a self-serving ad campaign, and the Coalition. We can’t even make the multinational companies pay their fair share of tax in Australia either. But we might have got a ‘Death Tax’, so we voted for the mob that brought this all about. I despair, I really do.
frednk @ #800 Monday, August 12th, 2019 – 6:44 am
Drug-Induced Psychosis, I reckon. Or he’s a spurned lover, or something like that. 😆
Despair is the appropriate name, for the highly rorted multi-tiered health services industry in Australia where the rorters have ingratiated their nefarious money making activities upon all levels of health and welfare at the expense of quality of life for the more needy in a less than egalitarian modern Australia.
The LNP and their leaders over the years feel free to take a bow!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/11/pacific-islands-forum-tuvalu-children-welcome-leaders-with-a-climate-plea
Good Morning Dawn Patrollers.
Shane Wright reports that stagnant wages and growing concerns about the jobs market is now weighing on the financial comfort of Australians, with many households barely holding their finances together.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/households-feel-pinch-on-jobs-and-wage-concerns-20190810-p52fu6.html
And he says that older Australians struggling to make ends meet or looking to boost their quality of life are flooding the national jobs market in record numbers but many are finding their skills and experience unwanted by prospective employers.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/over-65s-flooding-the-job-market-and-finding-they-re-not-so-employable-20190810-p52fsc.html
Greg Jericho begins this contribution with “Two fairy tales about economic management continue to hold far too great a sway over our public debate and the government’s economic policy. The first is the myth of household budget comparison and the second is what I call the grasshopper fable of government budgets.” He concludes by saying that it is time to end the surplus mania, and for everyone to realise that there are many things more important for a government to be doing for our economy than telling fairy stories about the importance of a budget surplus.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/aug/11/chilly-economic-winds-are-blowing-and-budget-fairytales-are-cold-comfort
Fiscal policy is better placed than monetary policy to support economic growth, the question is how to make sure the money is productively spent, writes Alan Mitchell.
https://outline.com/AMa4GK
The credit crunch in car loans isn’t as obvious as the one in home loans, but in some ways it is more spectacular.
https://outline.com/jqGpcm
We’ve been assured since at least 2012 that a return to strong economic growth wasn’t far off. Last week, big cracks emerged in the optimistic façade says Ross Gittins. He reckons Frydenberg needs to wake up.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/we-re-edging-towards-admitting-we-re-caught-in-secular-stagnation-20190811-p52fy4.html
Dominic Perrottet says that it’s time to revisit the state and federal taxation arrangements.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/federation-was-not-a-set-and-forget-exercise-why-we-need-to-overhaul-tax-and-state-funding-20190811-p52fzl.html
Michelle Grattan reckons that it’s not in the ‘national interest’ for the backbench to shut up about China.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-its-not-in-the-national-interest-for-the-backbench-to-shut-up-about-china-121732
Cara Waters explains how Subway is now under investigation by the Fair Work Ombudsman for underpayment of staff within the franchise.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/subway-under-investigation-by-fair-work-over-staff-underpayment-20190809-p52flv.html
John Wren discusses the dangers of Australia’s low fuel stocks.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/wrens-week-low-fuel-stocks-endangering-australias-economy-and-security,12990
Katharine Kemp tells us how the tech giants profit from invading our privacy, and how we can start taking it back.
https://theconversation.com/heres-how-tech-giants-profit-from-invading-our-privacy-and-how-we-can-start-taking-it-back-120078
The Coalition government’s campaign against the refugee medical evacuation laws is based on “mistruths” and “vindictive point-scoring”, the former president of the Australian Human Rights Commission, Gillian Triggs, says.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/11/gillian-triggs-says-vindictive-point-scoring-behind-coalitions-medevac-repeal
The Law Council says the Morrison government’s planned “farm invasion” laws are overkill and could stifle legitimate debate about animal rights and food production.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6321967/farm-invasion-laws-overkill-lawyers/?cs=14350
The number of people claiming Newstart has increased in about 10% of areas across the country despite a national improvement, with remote Indigenous communities among the hardest hit.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/12/number-of-people-on-newstart-rises-in-10-of-areas-despite-national-improvement
More than 300,000 feral camels are wreaking havoc across the outback – with one farmer claiming he had to shoot as many as two every minute to protect cattle and save precious water.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/08/11/feral-camels-australia/
A troubled Chinese conglomerate under pressure from Beijing and its invisible partner have teamed up with Virgin Australia to run a flight school in Barnaby Joyce’s electorate. Having exposed Virgin’s deceitful efforts to hide these parties, Anthony Klan goes door-knocking.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/shady-brothers-in-pursuit-of-virgin-australias-chinese-pilot-school-partners/
Judith Ireland reports that according to new analysis Australian women face confusion and a lack of services when it comes to accessing abortions.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/confusion-huge-disparity-what-australian-women-face-trying-to-access-abortion-20190809-p52fgl.html
Peter Hannam tells us that fish kills in the Murray-Darling Basin this year could dwarf those of last summer unless major rains arrive, with agencies preparing emergency response teams to minimise damage to dwindling native species.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/extremely-vulnerable-agencies-fear-bigger-fish-kills-this-summer-20190809-p52fhh.html
The SMH editorial explains why the federal government’s initiative for a new national program to identify mental health conditions in primary school children is to be welcomed.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/welcome-move-in-fight-against-suicide-20190811-p52g1f.html
Tony Walker says that the government needs to be extremely wary of getting suckered into a militarised China containment policy that would further exacerbate regional tensions.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-debate-is-one-we-have-to-have-but-let-s-do-it-sensibly-20190809-p52fl3.html
Things in Hong Kong are getting worse.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/tear-gas-fired-inside-hong-kong-subway-as-police-protesters-clash-20190812-p52g39.html
Kasey Edwards examines the effects of limited supply of child care in certain areas.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/supporting-the-cost-of-childcare-is-not-middle-class-welfare-20190807-p52ews.html
In the UK and the US, the political wind will soon change in favour of those demanding good government argues Will Hutton.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/11/there-are-reasons-to-be-cheeerful-we-are-seeing-dying-days-of-rancid-old-order
The United States has a terrorism problem, and it is doing vanishingly little to stop it writes Nicole Hemmer.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-united-states-has-a-terrorism-problem-20190809-p52fl4.html
Donald Trump is heading into the 2020 elections with no clear-cut foreign policy successes, some dramatic failures and a string of looming crises around the world that could undermine his bid for re-election.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/11/trump-foreign-policy-venezuela-north-korea-iran-results-2020
The New York Times reveals that multiple prison failures preceded Jeffrey Epstein’s apparent suicide.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/multiple-prison-failures-preceded-jeffrey-epstein-s-apparent-suicide-20190812-p52g3v.html
Fallout from the death by apparent suicide of Jeffrey Epstein in a New York City jail cell intensified on Sunday, as authorities in three separate jurisdictions opened investigations into the death and alleged victims expressed outrage at not being able to confront Epstein in court.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/11/jeffrey-epstein-death-fbi-doj-launch-investigations
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe sees Epstein off.
John Shakespeare at CPAC.
Matt Golding.
Jim Pavlidis and Morrison’s foreign policy issue.
Pat Campbell lines up Woolies (and Coles).
Inside the new Centrelink.
Zanetti’s still at it!
Johannes Leak with Birmo’s outburst.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ad4fe1d2015cf7df0706240df80b1039?width=1024
From the US
Washington Post regular – Max BootVerified account
If Republicans weren’t in the tank, we would not have to wait until Nov 2020 to get rid of Trump. His utterances in the past few days make clear that, for the safety of the country, he should be removed immediately by impeachment or the 25th Amendment.
Does Trump really want to debate mental fitness?
Does he really want to have an argument about who is “mentally fit to be president” and who has a “clue” about what’s happening in the world? Because his own utterances of the past few days have confirmed what everyone who hasn’t joined his cult already knows: He is both unfit to be president and utterly clueless.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/11/does-trump-really-want-debate-mental-fitness/
Prison guards skipped mandatory checks on Epstein prior to suicide: report
According to a report from Reuters, prison guards overseeing convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein in his cell in the Special Housing Unit of the Metropolitan Correctional Center (MCC) failed to do mandatory check-ins before his suicide.
According to the updated report, “At the MCC, two jail guards are required to make separate checks on all prisoners every 30 minutes, but that procedure was not followed overnight, according to the source. In addition, every 15 minutes guards are required to make another check on prisoners who are on suicide watch.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/prison-guards-skipped-mandatory-checks-on-epstein-prior-to-suicide-report/
phoenixRed:
I just read Boot’s column. He’s absolutely correct. It isn’t Biden retweeting crazy conspiracy theories about the Clintons, or saying Comey framed Blagoyevich when he was working in a private practice. Trump is insane.
This is interesting IF TRUE …..
Former mobster says Bill Barr made a secret visit to jail before Epstein’s death: ‘Something’s not right there’
A New York Post report on Sunday hinted that Attorney General Bill Barr may have visited the prison where Jeffrey Epstein was being held before he allegedly committed suicide.
Lewis Kasman, a former mobster and top associated of John Gotti Sr., told the Post that Barr made a secret visit to Metropolitan Correctional Center two weeks ago “about the time Epstein was found in his cell with bruises around his neck.”
“When does that happen?” Kasman asked. “The attorney general never visits jails. Something’s not right there.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/bill-barr-allegedly-made-secret-visit-to-jail-before-epsteins-death-when-does-that-happen/
Morning all
Thanks BK.
Are we going to be inundated with conspiracies or are people going to stick to the facts as they emerge?
So far it’s not promising.
PhoenixRed
Whilst in cases such as Epstein, the real truth may never be exposed. It was hardly a surprise that he has ended up dead. From everything I have gleaned about him over time, says that those that wanted him dead, could actually be those more powerful than the President himself.
One journalist I have followed and recommend. He has been worthwhile in this space.
Talk later. Have some commitments this morning.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ZevShalev?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1153396965792784385&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnarativ.org%2Fnarativlive-live-video-twitter%2F
Victoria says: Monday, August 12, 2019 at 8:06 am
PhoenixRed
Whilst in cases such as Epstein, the real truth may never be exposed.
********************************************************
There are documents still being held back on JFK 50+ years later ……. I doubt we will ever know the whole truth in our lifetimes ….
( Updated:Nov 21, 2018· Original:Apr 26, 2018
Trump Holds Some JFK Assassination Files Back, Sets New 3-Year Deadline
Despite a promise to release everything on April 26, 2018, the Trump administration is withholding certain material in the JFK Assassination archive for extra review.
https://www.history.com/news/final-jfk-files-assassination-documents-release )
PhoenixRed
Yep. Although I Still have strong feelings some very important matters will see the light of day.
phoenixRED @ #814 Monday, August 12th, 2019 – 6:11 am
Is it any wonder why conspiracy theories get started and propagate?
https://twitter.com/CNNSotu/status/1160585058358456320
Has Trump triggered the 25th Amendment yet?
What a contrast. Trump tweets conspiracy theories, openly stokes racism and hatred, racially abuses members of Congress, and expresses his love of militaristic dictators and it’s radio silence from Republicans. Yet a state Republican senator calls for the party to stop enabling white supremacism and is asked to leave the party. It really is the party of Trump.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/angry-and-fearful-americans-struggle-to-talk-about-guns-and-race/2019/08/11/d040c678-bad2-11e9-b3b4-2bb69e8c4e39_story.html
Confessions @ #809 Monday, August 12th, 2019 – 7:58 am
Donald Trump is not insane, he is evil.
Barney in Makassar says:
Think of it as a fun competition with you awarding the prize for the best effort. My current prize contender is that Morning Joe guy, he managed to slip in the word ‘Russian’ re Epstein. 😀
C@tmomma says:
Monday, August 12, 2019 at 7:02 am
Not to mention that we could have had a Resources Rent Tax to bring revenue into the treasury but that was killed off as well by a self-serving ad campaign, and the Coalition. We can’t even make the multinational companies pay their fair share of tax in Australia either. But we might have got a ‘Death Tax’, so we voted for the mob that brought this all about. I despair, I really do.
Resources are not taxed primarily because the Commonwealth allows far-too-generous concessions in oil and gas and, in the case of other minerals, Rudd completely stuffed things up with his utterly misconceived RSPT…the Henry Tax.
If there is one standout reason Labor struggles in WA and QLD it is because of Rudd’s idiotic miscalculation on resources. It cost him the leadership. It wrecked a first term Labor Government. It has meant Labor starts a long way behind in the resources states and effectively keeps the LNP in office.
His tweet was jokingly highlighting that Epstein’s death in custody before he got to spill his guts is something we’re used to seeing in Russia.
C@tmomma @ #819 Monday, August 12th, 2019 – 9:03 am
C@t, g’morning, still at last and lovely (the day, not moi)
We’ve seen that sicko photo of the Trumps and the baby at El Paso hospital. Here’s another read about it, and about the whole complete lack of anything normal surrounding the Trumps and their family.
https://www.thecut.com/2019/08/trump-baby-photo-el-paso-shooting.html
Not that it really needs any more emphasis.
#ETTD
poroti says:
Monday, August 12, 2019 at 9:05 am
I’m not sure I’d describe it as fun, but I think C@t’s a contender with;
“Donald Trump is not insane, he is evil.” 🙂
Thanks BK.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/federation-was-not-a-set-and-forget-exercise-why-we-need-to-overhaul-tax-and-state-funding-20190811-p52fzl.html
Looking at Perrottet’s agitating to change Fed State financial relations –
– I see the usual political right wingers (I include Jane Halton in there) and looking into why an ex NZ (Nationals) PM made it onto the list, to little surprise, find he is a real soul mate to the ambitious Mr Perrottet (wiki
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/it-was-inevitable-officers-watching-epstein-were-on-overtime-due-to-jail-staffing-shortage-union-president-says/2019/08/11/2b611404-bc5e-11e9-a5c6-1e74f7ec4a93_story.html
Many times, as someone smarter than me said, the founders contemplated a despotic President they just didn’t anticipate a senate majority of traitors supporting the despot. 25 is very new but it fails at the same hurdle.
‘CHINA DEBATE’
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says Australia has a “duty” to stand with the US in times of global uncertainty, backing America in its China dispute ($), The Australian reports.
Speaking at a dinner at the American-Australian Leadership Dialogue in Perth on Friday, Frydenberg endorsed American values in the Pacific, saying “we need to work together in an unprecedented way across the economic, the strategic and the political realms”.
It comes after Liberal backbencher Andrew Hastie controversially likened the rise of China to that of Nazi Germany. Trade Minister Simon Birmingham, currently in China for trade talks, called out Hastie on Insiders yesterday, saying he should have first considered if his analogy was “helpful to Australia’s national interests”. Senior US military figure Admiral Scott Swift has praised our “refreshing” China debate.
MURDOCH FUELS FAR RIGHT
A world-first study from Victoria University has found that the Murdoch media fuels far-right recruitment ($), finding a clear link between media coverage of certain issues and online recruitment drives.
The research, revealed by The Saturday Paper, shows that inflammatory mainstream media “emboldens” extremists, granting “permission” and “adding credibility to their cause”. Analysis of the 12 most influential far-right Facebook groups in Victoria found that the top sources of external content were The Daily Mail, Channel Nine’s digital products, YouTube, and The Australian. The Australian has responded defensively, with Menzies Research Centre director Nick Cater labelling the study another of the left’s “conspiracy theories about the rise of the right”.
Morning from sunny Albury. Cold, but not as bleak as Sydney’s winds and sleet over the past few days. Crisp!
Zoomster. If you are in Albury and want to catch up for a beverage later this week, just ask William for my email address and send me a message. Cheers Andrew
Itza,
The Americans who cover for Trump are good at their job, efficient and creative, I’ll give them that. Apparently Trump was smiling and giving the thumbs up in that bizarre photo…because he wanted the people to feel comfortable around the President of the United States and so they would have a photo they could treasure for the rest of their lives of a POTUS who was happy to be with them. 🙄
Big moment in the history of class actions in Australia this week with the High Court being asked to consider whether some persons suffering a loss can bind other persons suffering the same loss to pay a litigation funder (normally oversea companies) a fixed % of the proceeds of any judgment or settlement.
It is a Castle just terms argument.
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
From the Wisdom of the Ages otherwise occasionally known as “The Australian” newpaper.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/reef-science-may-be-beyond-the-latte-crowd/news-story/77226cd7aafcf4a57a8572103bc7a6a2
Dr. Ridd wants the reef science to be double checked. I guess that the said to be 99% of climate scientists disagree with him means nothing. Dr. Ridd is a noted climate change denier.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-15/great-barrier-reef-muddy-flood-plume-fears/10812910
I guess that this would be beneficial mud and can therefore be discounted.
Currently 14 ℃ in Newcastle – mostly cloudy. Really good day for cooking spaghetti bolognese and catching up on reading. 🍝 📔 ☕ (Café au lait).
Yeah. This. Well I just dont think this sort of criticism of Trump works, nor is all that valid.
It doesnt work because the people who vote for him have that ‘political correctness’ bee in the bonnets – they dont like being told how to behave and act and look by snooty elitists types (in their opinion). Often they define themselves by their anti-elite values to the point they portray themselves as crasser and less intelligent than they actually are. It has become a cultural thing. A brand. So when people attack Trump for how he appears or acts, they take it personally. Real personally. And love Trump more for it.
As for valid…. The guy next to him (a Trump supporter IIRC and the uncle of the orphaned child?) was smiling. It is just a photo… a snap shot. I dont care that he has his thumbs up and smiling. It is the hate mongering words that come out of his mouth designed to divide the nation that matter to me. His actions and inaction as the executive that serve against those very Trump supporters and instead benefit the ultra wealthy that matter. His efforts (along with the turtle) to trash rules, norms and institutions designed to inhibit corruption (amongst other things) that matters.
The key reform is to reduce (and phase out) state and local taxes and increase federal funding of the state and local governments. The sub-national governments should be freed up to design and deliver services and manage and administer budgets. There is no upside to them having to raise funds.
We no longer wait with interest for Australian polling to come out. However, the next lot of A-rated pollster polling in the US has me on the edge of my seat.
Indonesia is a huge and culturally diverse Country.
I didn’t notice it so much on my first visit in Sumatra, but it is abundantly apparent just by walking the streets here in the more centrally located Makassar.
Each major island has their own varying cultures and as you travel through them there is an obvious difference in ethnicity.
It’s quite amazing how relatively stable it has been, although history, past and recent, has shown the consequences of dissent.
I haven’t traveled there yet, but Papua and West Papua seem to highlight these cultural and ethnic differences, so it’s not surprising that there is a movement pushing back and looking to take control.
I don’t like their chances at present, especially in light of little international support.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/12/indonesia-angered-as-west-papua-independence-raises-its-head-at-pacific-forum
Dominic Perrettet does good chutzpah!
Having undermined his own revenue base via ever decreasing ‘bad taxes’ like payroll tax, selling off cash cows like the Land Titles Office and a singular failure to reform and broaden real property taxes, he now wants to run amuck federally.
Having spent the last 8 years pronouncing themselves to be totally FIGJAM when it comes to the state budget, it now seems likely that it was all a giant Ponzi scheme fuelled by boom stamp duty revenues and asset fire sales. Who would have thought it?!?
Is this why we are also spending more money on defence immediately after the visit from US heavyweights Pompeo et. al. ?
https://news.antiwar.com/2019/08/09/spend-more-on-military-or-we-move-troops-to-poland-us-envoy-tells-germany/
Advice given to me is that these are dangerous places. And the person advising me knows I have been through Central Asia, Aceh, the Caucuses and many other dangerous places like unisex toilets. Choose your destinations well, manage your time in transit centres very carefully.
Simon Katich says:
Monday, August 12, 2019 at 11:03 am
Definitely!
I’ve got no plans to go there, at the moment, I was more highlighting that I wasn’t speaking from personal experience. 🙂
Andrew_Earlwood @ #838 Monday, August 12th, 2019 – 10:53 am
Absobloodylutely.
Should you be heading down Dean Street, then the last house (700 Dean Street), opposite the Botanic Gardens, right at the bottom of ‘Monument Hill’, is my birthplace. No plaque or anything. Yet. 😉
Fond memories.
I was born in Paddington Women’s Hospital. They demolished the buildings, razed the land and sowed the soil with salt after I left.
No monuments for me, either.
Barney
I really wanted to go to West Papua for some hiking and would love to boat some of the Fly in PNG. It just seems much harder to understand and manage the risks there (without spending a small fortune). And it takes a very very long time to get around without extensive use of light aircraft.
And I have some responsibilities these days to consider.
ItzaDream @ #21753 Monday, August 12th, 2019 – 11:13 am
We’ll have to fix the dire plaque situation (Denticare anyone?), as I have run past your nativity scene on my way up the hill (whilst locuming in AWH some years ago) without realising it’s significance.
Trump is a menace to Australia’s economic and strategic well-being. He’s a direct threat to cohesion and order inside the US. He’s a risk to nearly everyone.
ItzaDream says:
Monday, August 12, 2019 at 11:13 am
That’s one feature I loved in the U.K., especially in London.
I used to just idle around the streets, stopping to read at any plaque that crossed my path.
I made some great discoveries that way, although none as important as 700 Dean St. 🙂
Thanks for the heads up about “The Family” on Netflix , Victoria. Watched it yesterday.
Am now listening to Nikki Savva on “Conversations with Richard Fidler” and she mentioned how Morrison’s group were living together and met in prayer groups. One can only speculate who coached them in their superb election strategy when Dutton challenged Turnbull.
Chilling.
My old dentist used to work in a mine high up in the West Papuan mountains, as a “Contract Medical Officer”. It’s a massive open cut affair, not far below the only permanent glacier in South East Asia (now fast disappearing).
As he was drilling into my mouth he used to tell me harrowing stories of assisting at appendectomies, removing whole eyes, week-long drinking binges and having to shoot a few of the locals when a strike turned violent (“It was them or us,” he told me, flossing). He regarded them as The Glory Days of his life.
West Papua is a very wild place, according to him.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/4%C2%B004'59.3%22S+137%C2%B010'44.8%22E/@-4.0641444,137.1343902,10568m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d-4.083144!4d137.179103?hl=en
That photo showed the Trumps to be a pair of sociopaths, simple as that. If his base are fine with that because it is not politically correct the place is in a mess.