We now have as much in the way of results out of the federal election as we’re ever going to, with the Australian Electoral Commission finally publishing preference flow by party data. The table below offers a summary and how it compares with the last two election. They confirm that YouGov Galaxy/Newspoll was actually too conservative in giving the Coalition 60% of preferences from One Nation and the United Australia Party, with the actual flow for both parties being nearly identical at just over 65%.
The United Australia Party preference flow to the Coalition was very substantially stronger than the 53.7% recorded by the Palmer United Party in 2013, despite its how-to-vote cards directing preferences to the Coalition on both occasions. A result is also listed for Palmer United in 2016, but it is important to read these numbers in conjunction with the column recording the relevant party’s vote share at the election, which in this case was next to zero (it only contested one lower house seat, and barely registered there). Greens preferences did nothing out of the ordinary, being slightly stronger to Labor than in 2016 and slightly weaker than in 2013.
The combined “others” flow to the Coalition rose from 50.8% to 53.6%, largely reflecting the much smaller footprint of the Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance, whose preferences in 2016 split 60-40 to Labor. This also contributes to the smaller share for “others”, with both figures being closer to where they were in 2013. “Inter-Coalition” refers to where there were both Liberal and Nationals candidates in a seat, some of whose preferences will have flowed to Labor rather than each other. The “share” result in this case records the combined Coalition vote in such seats as a share of the national formal vote.
While we’re here, note the blog’s other two recent posts: Adrian Beaumont’s account of Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, and my own in-depth review of the legal challenges against the election of Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong and Gladys Liu in Chisholm.
“the Labor Right and don’t forget Albanese, who is supposedly from Labor Left, will ensure there is no coalition or alliance, either formal or informal between Labor and the Greens at the federal level.”
A Labor Government will need Green support to get any of their program through the Senate. The Coalition will reflexively oppose everything in Labor’s program, even stuff they had previously supported, while non-Green cross-benchers would be mostly from the Right. One way or another, formally or informally, Labor and Greens will need to cooperate when Labor is in Government to accomplish anything.
RD
Bingo.
The Lib-kin of PB give daily demonstrations of their anti-Labor melodrama.
Crabb incorrectly said on Insiders that Labor introduced robodebt.
briefly @ #351 Sunday, August 4th, 2019 – 11:01 am
The LN-L cartel arrangement gives daily demonstrations of their ties to vested interests which takes precedence over good social policy.
Great photo and great news. 👍
Steve777 says:
Sunday, August 4, 2019 at 10:59 am
“the Labor Right and don’t forget Albanese, who is supposedly from Labor Left, will ensure there is no coalition or alliance, either formal or informal between Labor and the Greens at the federal level.”
A Labor Government will need Green support to get any of their program through the Senate. The Coalition will reflexively oppose everything in Labor’s program, even stuff they had previously supported, while non-Green cross-benchers would be mostly from the Right. One way or another, formally or informally, Labor and Greens will need to cooperate when Labor is in Government to accomplish anything.
The vulnerability of Labor in the Senate means Labor can never really win. Even if they win a House election, they will face a hostile Senate. The Lib-kin will use their Senate numbers to procure Labor’s defeat. This is inevitable. They are an anti-Labor bloc.
We are actually fucked in this country.
Albo says he has not seen evidence of corruption in the govt.
Then he is an IDIOT!.
DiNatali should ask himself why it is that defectors from Liberal and Labor have not been attracted to his outfit. They have been seduced by the Crazy Right, who have favoured their alter-egos, the Lib-Libs.
The Greens are a vote-repelling gizmo. They drive voters away from the centre-left.
Bloody hell, the left is legitimately as hopeless at politics as the political satirists have been implying for years!
“I don’t know how we’ll blow it, but we will, because that’s what the Democratic Party party is all about.”
Confessions says: Sunday, August 4, 2019 at 10:55 am
phoenixRed:
Did you catch Real Time yesterday?
***********************************************
Not yet Confessions – only caught Bills opening – emergency baby sitting
What was good ????
I have no problem with the Government matching data from its various sources to detect cheating, just as they should with tax records. But the Robodebt system appears to have been bunged in without proper testing. It seems to be full of bugs. It vioalates a very basic principle that you don’t demand money from people unless you’re pretty sure that they owe you.
The Government wouldn’t do this to big corporations owing tax because, unlike welfare recipients, they are in a good position to fight back. In the case of Robodebt, the Government seems to have decided that they can get away with it.
America is ‘under attack from white nationalist terrorism’: Mayor Pete Buttigieg
Authorities announced that 20 people were murdered and another 26 wounded in the massacre. The gunman is suspected to have written a manifesto described as “wildly anti-immigrant.”
“Our country is under attack from white nationalist terrorism, inspiring murder on our soil and abetted by weak gun laws. If we are serious about national security, we must summon the courage to name and defeat this evil,” South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg said on Twitter.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/america-is-under-attack-from-white-nationalist-terrorism-mayor-pete-buttigieg/
phoenixRed:
This was pretty good, plus Bill calling out a Trumpist heckler in the audience was pretty funny.
Fucking ineffective journalists. If the gunman had been a brown Muslim “massacre” would be either preceded by “terrorist” or replaced with “terrorist attack”. Is it so hard to correctly label white terrorists as terrorists?
There’s always another view. 🙂
Albo says he has not seen evidence of corruption in the govt.
I think he means official evidence, that is, evidence brought before the independent, fearless, non-political organs of the law like the AFP, the AAT or, say, the newly minted Federal Corruption Commis—– oh, wait….
Alright then… how about ACLEI? Now I know they haven’t had any cases and certainly haven’t done any investigations, or produced any reports, but wouldn’t this be a good time to start? OK, so they can’t investigate pollies but, as Albo pointed out, if they break the habit of a lifetime and actually, y’know, report corruption in a department, or even begin to investigate it, maybe, a bit… then we’ll all know who the real crook is.
After that it should be easy: all the poor picked-on victim of scurrilous allegations has to do is arrange for a Dixer to be aimed at him (or her, sorry Michaelia) and then comprehensively deny it under Parliamentary privilege. Either that or sling it to one of their mates on the AAT for a few years in the dishwasher on “Endless Cycle”, or maybe arrange for some AFP raids on uppity journos so that no-one ever gets to the bottom of anything (and certainly regrets it if they do).
Depending on how precarious their position is, they might even be able to get ScoMo to put his arm around them in front of the cameras and tell the assembled admirers he’s got ambitions for them. How good would that be!
If none of this works they can roll out the big guns and get the Insiders to agree that, while there may be a few corrupt politicians shovelling taxpayers’ money by the skip load into Caymans accounts held by shelf companies they forgot about ever setting up, front organizations for their ex-Oxford rowing mates, or trusts run by their wives, or maybe some real baddies who waltz into departmental offices and heavy the investigative and compliance staff (or some real colorful characters who bung on all of the above), we should all just grow up and realize that there are bad apples in every barrel. The Insiders are there to tell us Parliament’s a cross-section of Life maaate.
At this point Gerard Henderson should be able to petsonally assure everyone that there’s absolutely nothing to the story.
But seriously…
Sorry Albo: Not. Good. Enough.
You’re losing me, and that makes me feel both real sad and bloody angry.
a r says:
Sunday, August 4, 2019 at 11:17 am
In one way it’s kind of good.
It clearly differentiates between massacres carried out by the “good guys” and those by “terrorists.”
When was the last “terrorist” massacre in the US?
The difference is in what you regard as more important: helping Labor’s public image and Labor’s perceived competence in order to minimize the probability of a Coalition Government; or consistently making the case for your policy goals and consistently voting for those goals in the Parliament.
I think that culturally and institutionally the Greens clearly put a higher priority on being consistent in their public arguments and their parliamentary votes. So it would have been impossible for them to vote for the Malaysia Solution, because it would have involved voting for a detention-based solution when the Greens regard this as reprehensible and will only vote for community-based processing of asylum seekers. It would have been impossible for them to vote for the CPRS, because it would have involved voting for generous handouts to big polluters.
If the Greens had evolved from different origins, and become a transactional wheeling and dealing kind of party, then they could have voted for the CPRS and the Malaysia Solution on the grounds that they were “a tiny bit better than nothing” and consistently told their voters and the general public: Here is what the optimal policy would be.
In hindsight if the Greens had used their parliamentary votes to award policy wins to the ALP on the CPRS and the Malaysia Solution, the ALP probably would have enjoyed positive publicity and would have been perceived as competent and united. That might have led to the ALP comfortably winning the 2010 and 2013 elections.
The Greens don’t see their role as enhancing the ALP’s image so as to minimize the chance of Coalition election wins. Perhaps they should do that but how would they adopt such a major cultural and strategic change in view of their historical origins? They are a principles-driven party, not a transactional wheeling and dealing party.
BK:
A lovely photo.
Is it really five years since you wrote on PB of the concerning time re your daughter and her baby? I remember that time, as I also remember the lovely photos you posted earlier of a beautiful wedding and a proud father of the bride.
lizzie @ #367 Sunday, August 4th, 2019 – 11:24 am
Trish gets it. No gotcha flies on Albo.
I’m sorry that the cynical among us aren’t impressed and Albo is losing them. Not.
Hundreds of people in a shopping mall… in Texas, where you can carry a concealed weapon… and not one public-spirited good guy took-out the bad guy?
Wimps.
C@t
W-e-ll. He could have said that if any corrupt politicians were found, it was important that they should be publicly revealed – or something like that.
BK @ #347 Sunday, August 4th, 2019 – 10:55 am
The apple of grandad’s eye? (Or whatever the meat equivalent is 😆 )
And you should see MY son now, who spent 18 out of his first 24 months in hospital, his first stop being Neonatal Intensive Care. Now, 100kg, 6′ tall and just about to celebrate his 24th birthday. 🙂
Nicholas, the Greens run a Lib-positive strategy. They focus their campaigns on attacking Labor. This is having the desired effect of keeping Labor from office. The corollary is the Liberals win. When the Liberals win, labour repression is intensified and extended. The environment is further despoiled. The dismantling of social justice proceeds.
The Greens are ensigns for the Liberals. Get used to it.
Nothing at all will be accomplished in this country on terms that favour working people unless and until the dysfunction on the centre-left is repaired. Nothing of substance has been resolved on such terms for near-on 30 years, with the notable exception of the response of the Rudd government to the GFC. The dysfunction we see is produced and propagated by the Greens, who profit from it. The success of the Greens results in Lib-hegemony. Get used to it. Nothing that you declare you value will be realised under conditions of Liberal rule. Get used to it.
lizzie @ #373 Sunday, August 4th, 2019 – 11:47 am
He and Labor are working on it in parliament. 🙂
Anyway, I’m gutted. I believe the world will end soon. A Cane Toad was discovered in Woy Woy last week. 😐
Labor should get very fulsomely behind a Commonwealth ICAC.
“This is the political environment that the left faces, which includes a dominant right wing Coalition in the pocket of powerful vested interests, determined to do nothing on climate change and which feels it can safely ignore the environment. Labor needs to win over Liberal voters of a moderate / Centrist outlook to win Government and achieve anything. The Greens need to think about how they can best achieve their objectives. Hint: it’s not through tearing down Labor.”
Broadly, a take on the current state of play i agree with.
Me, i reckon roll on recession later this year. If ever there was a time where recession may actually do some overall long term good, its now, to slap people right in the face with what incompetent and economically illiterate bastards the RW are. Will hurt a lot of people, including me, but may wake up some of the low info idiots who vote Lib / Nat that they are actually voting against their own interests.
Lol…been watching that series on Netflix “Another Life”. Post climate disaster , Social Media, self indulgent generation something or others out to make first contact with aliens. Self indulgent prats on a mission………a bit like politics now??
Highlighting Government corruption is hardly the way to go about convincing the Government to implement an anti-corruption body.
Doing so in an election campaign is a different matter and desirable if you are trying to convince the electorate of the need.
Albo has seen no evidence of corruption. I am sure he’s heard plenty of rumors.
You don’t have to be cynical to note that Albo completely evaded the question on corrupt politicians, and then put up a sham organization (the ACLEI, whose name he had to read out off a crib sheet, it’s so effing obscure an organization) as being responsible for, not actually investigating, but merely indirectly embarrassing said crooked MPs.
He also said all this in the context of having just organized a fortnight’s worth of questions specifically designed to expose Angus Taylor’s various agrarian carryings-on, which taught us at least two things: you simply cannot embarrass a sufficiently cynical MP who has built his entire Lifeplan on sleeve-tugging, influence peddling and an excessive sense of entitlement, and secondly, unless Albo simply thinks Taylor is just not a very nice chappie, Albo suspects Taylor’s activities might need further independent forensic examination.
This is NOT the way to impress the voters.
imacca says:
Sunday, August 4, 2019 at 11:56 am
Me, i reckon roll on recession later this year. If ever there was a time where recession may actually do some overall long term good, its now, to slap people right in the face with what incompetent and economically illiterate bastards the RW are. Will hurt a lot of people, including me.
___________________________
Nasty Idiot. You wish for unemployment and hardship on people for not voting ALP? I reckon roll on record economic growth and prosperity.
We are experiencing recessed conditions in the WA economy. The response has been a rise in the Right-leaning vote. The idea that a recession will be good for Labor is wrong. In moments of crisis the usual reflex of the electorate is to vote for the Right. The only exception to this since Federation was the election of the Hawke Government in 1983.
The last part of Peg’s hopeful hagiography of Pepe’s global empire ambitions for the Greens caught my eye:
“Scientists say this level of warming must be met to avoid catastrophic impacts, including the destruction of the Great Barrier Reef.”
This is almost certainly false. Whilst global heating will no doubt claim the remnant tropical coral reefs of the world sometime in the middle of the century, the GBF and similarly stressed reefs (like the inshore reefs around the islands off Nadi, Fiji for example) are either already dead or are terminally ill and dying. In the case of the GBF it is Nitrogen run off wot done it and … its over. So, do yourself a favour and go and visit the reef sometime in the next two years. Last chance guys.
If voting Green could avert global heating, people would do it. But voting Green results in dysfunction. It delivers – rather, perpetuates – Liberal rule. There are no foreseeable circumstances in Australia under which it would make objective sense to vote Green.
The Greens, the Liberal parties useful idiots.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-could-see-big-increase-in-vote-like-in-germany-di-natale-says-20190802-p52d93.html
You don’t have to be cynical to note that Albo completely evaded the question on corrupt politicians, and then put up a sham organization (the ACLEI, whose name he had to read out off a crib sheet, it’s so effing obscure an organization)
Or, to put it another way, Abanese knew that, even though the acronymic ACLEI referred to an obscure investigative body of government, he better get what it stood for correct because there were 4 CPG journalists watching on, just waiting with baited breath for him to make a Beazleyesque mistake with it. Not to mention the Liberal Party and every RW journalist in the country, hanging on his every word so that they could splash with it on the front page of every Murdoch tabloid in Australia on Monday morning. Not to mention, The Greens.
Jeez, I’m glad I’m not Albanese. Honestly, I can just imagine he has this song going around in his head:
‘Cynics to the Left of me,
Dangerous clowns to the Right,
Here I am,
Stuck in the Middle trying to make my way safely through my first term as Labor Opposition Leader.’
A_E, very obviously in Australia we do not value life per se. It is only valued if it makes money for title-holders. The GBR is a commonly-owned resource. Its destruction will be yet another example of the tragedy of the commons. The productivity of farms held on freehold titles will always be more strongly defended than the values inherent in a commonly-owned environmental resource. The same applies to the atmosphere and the rest of the marine environment too.
The external costs of farming accrue in the commonly-held domain. The farmers are free-loading on the rest of the community, on the future and on the environment. This is yet another example of market failure in an inadequately unregulated sector.
The Integrity Commission is a paper tiger. It doesn’t investigate anything. It doesn’t commission anything. It is a sham. We would be better off without it.
Nicholas:
“The difference is in what you regard as more important: helping Labor’s public image and Labor’s perceived competence in order to minimize the probability of a Coalition Government; or consistently making the case for your policy goals and consistently voting for those goals in the Parliament.”
I care about results, not the ALP’s (or anyone else’s) public image. Politics is the art of the possible. What is “possible” is of course a matter of judgement, but 50% of something is always much better than 100% of nothing.
Had the Greens, ever so reluctantly, passed Labor’s CPRS, it would have been established in 2010, Rudd wins an election in late 2010. Who knows what might have happened in 2013, but there’s a good chance that the CPRS would have been considered part of the furniture by then, like the GST. That would not have prevented the Greens from campaigning for improvements. If Labor had retained power the Greens would have had some influence over policy. But now, 10 years later and for the forseable future, we have nothing.
Likewise, the Malaysia Solution might have stopped the boats – that’s what it was designed to do – with no turnbacks, no deaths at sea, no Manus or Nauru. Those sent to Malaysia would have been in a far better position than those on Manus or Nauru. Of course, we shall never know, but in my opinion it was worth a try.
Then we come to 2013. Boats off the agenda, CPRS in place, likely no Abbott Government. Possibly a Turnbull Government, Rudd III or Gillard. Either way, we’d likely be in a far better position now in 2019. Again, we can’t know.
OK, I know that neither this, nor anything else I write here or elsewhere, will change any minds. Just setting out the situation as I see it.
Time for lunch.
The inherent capital value of a resource such as the GBR is incalculably large. We can deduce this from the very simple observation that even if we were to muster all the resources available in the global economy we could not create a new reef. We do not have the capacity to do that.
Consequently it follows that we are allowing an infinitely large capital stock to be destroyed for nothing. By allowing pollution generated in the agricultural sector – uncharged, undiluted, unrestrained runoff – to kill the reef we are effectively subsidising the annihilation of our natural capital. This is insane. But it is what we do.
BB @ noon
Exactly. That is the optics. Albanese just looked shifty and unconvincing.
Labor was in lockstep with the Coalition to “put up a sham organization (the ACLEI, whose name he had to read out off a crib sheet, it’s so effing obscure an organization)” that can not directly investigate past and present politicians.
All the while pursuing Angus Taylor in parliament for alleged corruption.
Risible.
What’s the likely take out in voterland. They are all the same, mates looking after each other to cover up corrupt and other suspect actions.
Bushfire Bill @ #381 Sunday, August 4th, 2019 – 12:00 pm
But but he did so well at evading yet another hypothetical media attack on Labor and again narrowly saved Labor from having to explain to voters the reasons behind its policies and the difference between Labor and the Coalition!
You must have missed the memo; this is how we score politics now. It’s not about representing constituents, standing by any sort of principles, holding dodgy government people to account, advocating better policies, or blocking bad policies. It’s all about how many hypothetical media attacks you manage to avoid.
This is how you get points now; it’s Albo’s
mainonly skill!Pegasus says:
Sunday, August 4, 2019 at 10:59 am
RD
Albo and Labor are lost in no mans land. No firm footing, no direction, no base.
The LibNats are sure-footed with clear direction on their agenda and base… as are the Greens on their agenda and base.
Bingo.
The sad thing is there agenda is no more wider than “Get Labor”. The Greens are as responsible for the Liberal policy, be what is is, as the Liberal party are.
“The only exception to this since Federation was the election of the Hawke Government in 1983.”
Exactly. Hawke was selling hope as a figure of public trust. And with not just a little bit of charisma.
Albo is quietly burying every left wing vanity piece that doesn’t matter to the great task at the 2022 of bringing voters in the outer rim suburbs and regional centres back to Labor. Pegarex and the CPG and folk like Murph and Jericho might fulminate, but their concerns simply don’t amount to anything more than merde to low interest, low information voters only concerned about making the ends meet in their little lives.
How can Labor sell hope to those that aren’t voting labor, but labor actually needs to win? I have several suggestions:
Keep promising tax cuts that are better than the coalition’s (in terms of timing at least) for folk earning between $80K and $160K pa.
Promise to end long term unemployment by bringing back working nation; including a massive investment in TAFEs and a National Infrastructure Building program to place candidates in.
Transform ‘work for the dole’ so that participates get the basic wage ON TOP of Newstart for their efforts and not simply to keep getting it.
Speaking of Newstart, I note Nicholas’s post from the other day about poverty levels as a justification for effectively doubling Newstart. With respect, what really makes Newstart crippling is that for most folk, most of the allowance is spent on accommodation. While I think that promising to lift the general Newstart allowance whilst in opposition is a potential vote killer for Labour, perhaps a policy to dramatically lift the rental and accomodation allowance would actually be a political positive, because housing costs is something that is immeasurably relatable by just about everyone, especially those low interest, low information voters.
Come up with a comprehensive wages and incomes policy. One that is pitched equally to the the low information low interest voter – who may be a Hi-Vis ‘independent contractor’ – as it is pitched to PAYG employees.
Re: the Environment. Limit Labor’s carbon policy ‘for the first term’ to implementing the NEG, increasing certain investments into storage technology and expanding the grid to accomodate the capacity needed for a broad scale super charging EV network. Instead of insisting that ‘polluters’ buy carbon credits (avoiding the LABOR’S ENVIRONMENT TAX!!!!! Scare campaign) instead agree to PAY the fuckers who are busily clearing remnant woodlands to fucking STOP and preserve it AND also paying said fuckers to replant much of what they FUCKING destroyed over the past decade in favour of a few more head of Angus beef. Use those payments as part of an international carbon credit market to hopefully offset government payments to those FUCKING INGRATE FARMERS who have been busy vandalising the bush in favour of Angus beef cattle. Also promise to plant the first additional 1 billion trees as part of our carbon abatement program.
There – sell hope.
frednk @ #395 Sunday, August 4th, 2019 – 12:28 pm
And haven’t The Greens here embraced with zeal their new bestie, BB? They must be thanking him from the bottom of their anti Labor hearts for writing their Anti Albanese attack lines for them.
Andrew_Earlwood
Yup.
We have to fight on turf that is relevant to voters greatest concerns. We have a long way to go. We have to fight on this turf every day for as long as it takes.