Quite a bit to report of late, starting out with federal redistribution prospects for the coming term:
• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a research paper on the likely outcome of the state and territory seat entitlement determinations when they are calculated in the middle of the next year. The conclusion reached is as it was when I did something similar in January: that Western Australia is sure to lose the sixteenth seat it gained in 2016; that Victoria will sneak over the line to gain a thirty-ninth (and its second in consecutive electoral cycles, a prodigiousness once associated with Queensland); and the Northern Territory will fall below it and lose one of its two seats.
• The West Australian reports Liberal and Labor will respectively be lobbying for Burt and Hasluck to be abolished, though given the two are neighbours, this is perhaps a fine distinction – the effect of either might be to put Matt Keogh and Ken Wyatt in competition for an effectively merged seat. The view seems to be that an eastern suburbs seat would be easiest to cut, as the core electorates of the metropolitan area are strongly defined by rivers and the sea, and three seats are needed to account for the state’s periphery. (There was also a new set of state boundaries for Western Australia published on Friday, which you can read all about here).
• The predicted outcome in the Northern Territory, whose population has taken a battering since the end of the resources construction boom, would leave its single electorate with an enrolment nearly 30% above the national norm – an awkward look for what would also be the country’s most heavily indigenous electorate. The Northern Territory has had two electorates since 1996, but came close to losing one in 2003 when its population fell just 295 below the entitlement threshold. This was averted through a light legislative tweak, but this time the population shortfall is projected to approach 5000.
Poll news:
• The word from Essential Research that its voting intention numbers will resume in “a month or two”. Curiously, its public line is that its reform efforts are focused on its “two-party preferred modelling”, when the pollsters’ critical failures came on the primary vote.
• Kevin Bonham laments the crisis-what-crisis stance adopted by The Australian and YouGov Galaxy upon the return of Newspoll. My own coverage of the matter was featured in a paywalled Crikey article on Monday, which concluded thus:
In the past, YouGov Galaxy has felt able to justify the opaqueness of its methods on the grounds that its “track record speaks for itself”. That justification will be finding far fewer takers today than it did before the great shock of May 18.
• Liberal insiders have been spruiking their success in winning back the support of working mothers as the key to their election win, as related through an account of internal party research in the Age/Herald. However, Jill Sheppard at the Australian National University retorts that the numbers cited are quantitative data drawn from qualitative research (specifically focus groups), which is assuredly not the right idea.
Preselection news:
• There are six preselection nominees for Mitch Fifield’s Liberal Senate vacancy in Victoria: Sarah Henderson, until recently the member for the Corangamite, and generally reckoned the favourite; Greg Mirabella, former state party vice-president and the husband of Sophie Mirabella, whose prospects were talked up in The Australian last week; Chris Crewther, recently defeated member for Dunkley; state politics veteran and 2018 election casualty Inga Peulich; and, less familiarly, Kyle Hoppitt, John MacIsaac and Mimmie Watts.
• The Australian last week reported a timeline had yet to be set for the preselection to replace Arthur Sinodinos in New South Wales. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Liberal moderates might be planning on backing a candidate of the hard Right, rather than one of their own in James Brown, state RSL president and son-in-law of Malcolm Turnbull. The idea is apparently that the nominee will then go on to muscle aside factional colleague Connie Fierravanti-Wells at preselection for the next election. However, all that’s known of that potential candidate is that it won’t be Jim Molan, who is opposed by feared moderate operator Michael Photios.
• The Sydney Morning Herald report also relates that former Premier Mike Baird’s withdrawal from the race to become chief executive of the National Australia Bank has prompted suggestions he might have his eye on a federal berth in Warringah at the next election. Also said to be interested is state upper house MP Natalie Ward.
Electoral law news:
• The Guardian reports that Oliver Yates, independent candidate for Kooyong, is challenging Josh Frydenberg’s win on the grounds that Chinese language signs demonstrating how to vote Liberal looked rather a lot like instructions from the Australian Electoral Commission. The complainant must establish that the communication was “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”, which has provided a rich seem of unsuccessful litigation over the decades. It seems it is acknowledged that this is only the test case, in that it is not anticipated the court will overturn the result. Such might have been the case in Chisholm, which was the focal point of complaints about the signs, and where the result was much closer. However, Labor has opted not to press the issue, no doubt because it has little cause to think a by-election would go well for them. Yates’s challenge has been launched days prior to today’s expiry of the 40-day deadline for challenges before the Court of Disputed Returns.
• The difficulty of getting such actions to stick, together with the general tenor of election campaigning in recent years, have encouraged suggestions that a truth-in-advertising regime may be in order, such as operates at state level in South Australia. More from Mike Steketee in Inside Story.
empathy
/ˈɛmpəθi/
noun
the ability to understand and share the feelings of another.
Unfunded empathy is simply their way if squibbing the truth of the matter which is that they have no empathy (for that which they call unfunded).
Where their empathy lies is not hard to see: their own likenesses – profiteers basically, in all their shapes and sizes, and that includes most if not all religions.
Unfunded empathy is one of the most disgusting double speak terms in the lexicon.
Unfunded empathy, bad; unfunded tax cuts, good.
Itza:
And of course the Coalition have plenty of unfunded empathy to go around for their mates. The half a billion dollars to the GBRF for eg.
zoomster
There are so many stories on Twitter that reveal the unfairness – such as suspension because the ‘client?’ was suddenly taken to hospital.
unfunded
/ʌnˈfʌndɪd/
Learn to pronounce
adjective
not funded.
not receiving public funds.
“a new education bill remained unfunded”
(of a debt) repayable on demand rather than having been converted into a more or less permanent debt at fixed interest.
“the unfunded debt”
@Confessions
Dodgy nbn=$20 billl extra, dodgy subs=$50 Bill, dodgy stations that collapsed during construction with lend lease leaving, a few Bill there
My late husband, who used to work for Centrelink, told me that they are such a bureaurocratically-constipated organisation, that the best advice he could give me was to find out what they wanted you to do by the book, then tell them beforehand what you are doing. Don’t wait until you have done it.
Works for me.
I’d even consider getting the ambulance to stop by you local Centrelink on the way to the hospital to let them know what’s happening. 😉
Interesting article. 👇👇👇
https://theaimn.com/only-the-rich-and-privileged-deserve-empathy/
This is just so obviously wrong. Empathy (as I translate the statements and actions forthcoming from the Gummint) is funding services for the unfortunate, those with mental challenges, the poorly educated, the disabled (the halt, the lame and the blind). The funding quite rightly goes to those who, by reason of merit, are best placed to administer the empathy in a cost effective and focused manner.
Primarily the empathy will be directed by means of well resourced and constantly updated computer algorithms (no relation to waltz time or jazz ballet) which is “in house” known as the “Universal No Machine”. The aim of the well thought out process is to save scarce tax dollars for the benefit of all Orstrayans and in particular those with the right stuff. Those who can divert cash and benefits in ways to enhance the material welfare and the future prospects of suitable candidates is quite naturally seen as beneficial by focus group habituées and what used to be known as yellow page “journalists.”
More from the article under discussion👇👇
In conclusion I would like to briefly mention the 3D Printing which got a mention courtesy of the ABC and other outlets.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-30/victorian-woman-gets-3d-printed-jawbone-implant/8400410
Great article -what has this to do with empathy ❓ Not much – unless a tunneling process can be undertaken whereby the old hardly ever used brain of selected candidates is removed and a new empathy free model printed and installed- readying the new proud owner ready and willing to represent a constituency, any constituency in the local council, the State Parliament, the Federal Parliament – the moon the …
So …. I wait for kind neighbours to dash in off the street to start my vacuuming and cleaning. 🧹 ☕☕
Since the ABC audience can’t hear most of the sledging, I’d suggest that Julie is responding from inside her own bubble.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/question-time-has-become-a-joke-mp-mobile-phone-ban-on-the-table-20190730-p52c5f.html
Agree with all of that. Parliament QT is crap. Pretty much for exactly those reasons.
JBishop enjoyed QT plenty when she was able to take snide potshots at Gillard by asking Rudd when he was returning to Bougainville (Boganville).
“Oh course, a more objective view is not that ACT is unrepresented in the Senate, but that every State and Territory bar NSW and Victoria are massively over represented. Especially, Tasmania.”
Actually, all the States have equal representation. None of them is over or under represented because they are all equal. You’ve either got to have one system or the other. Either every State and Territory is given equal representation, or you assign Senators based on population alone. Having a system where all the states are equal but the territories aren’t is a blight on democracy to say the very least.
Speaking of the unfunded.
Tend to agree with Kim Carr. A narrow one-seat win by the LNP – though unexpected – is hardly reason to junk the Labor Party’s platform and identity. Labor would be better off rethinking its opposition to a NZ-style mixed member proportional system, which is far more likely to deliver progressive victories as major party affiliations decline.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/07/30/kim-carr-labor-policy/
This will necessarily involve better relations with the Greens. Labor and the Greens have to face the fact that they have no other obvious potential allies. Where Australia does have proportional systems (Senate, ACT, Tas) Labor-Green collaboration has been a reality for years. Not an unproblematic one, but thats just politics. There is a Labor-Green Government in the ACT right now.
“JBishop enjoyed QT plenty when she was able to take snide potshots at Gillard by asking Rudd when he was returning to Bougainville (Boganville).”
Don’t forget when she was relentlessly going after Gillard every day in QT over the AWU “slush fund” garbage. Bishop was quite happy to dish it out when it suited her.
I mean, they wrote the rule book on how to rort the system, and are manifest masters of duplicity. But should some poor unfortunate, less able, less skilled, less privileged, suggest that they need some basics for health or welfare, well doesn’t that rattle the suits and pearls in their air-conditioned ivory offices.
Empathy my arse.
I do agree that the dixers should be dumped – or at least limited to, say, two per QT. Backbenchers won’t like it, because it gives them their chance to ‘shine’ (and sometimes to prove their reading/comprehension is below par).
Which reminds me. Tony Smith is a great one for relying on ‘precedent’ for his rulings. On one side, that’s good, but if the rules are never changed, QT will be stuck in a time warp.
It was a win by only one seat, yes, but it was a huge victory for bullshit and wool pulling, and a KO for truth. The momentum is now solidly with FauxMo and his mob of double speaks.
That Netflix programme The Great Hack (thanks to the referees) made the point that the US election was clinched by 70,000 votes over three states.
The unfundables ! How good are they.
They should make QT more like it is in the British parliament IMO.
I’m less worried about QT and more worried that the Parliament is virtually not sitting, at all.
Itza:
Yes, the lack of parliamentary sittings is a disturbing trend under this govt.
lizzie @ #72 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 10:11 am
The men are studs and the women are sl*ts. Who knew.
Here are some of my thoughts on the challenges associated with legislating for truth in political advertising.
https://insidestory.org.au/home-truths-about-political-advertising/
“This will necessarily involve better relations with the Greens. Labor and the Greens have to face the fact that they have no other obvious potential allies. Where Australia does have proportional systems (Senate, ACT, Tas) Labor-Green collaboration has been a reality for years. Not an unproblematic one, but thats just politics. There is a Labor-Green Government in the ACT right now.”
Well, Richard Di Natale’s door is still open but, unfortunately, Bill Shorten won’t be walking through it anytime soon. I guess we’ll never know if Shorten would’ve taken up RDN’s offer to negotiate and work together after the election.
The Greens/Labor ACT government is the shining example of what a good progressive government looks like. Don’t let anyone try and tell you that minority governments are always unstable either. They’re in their third term in minority government and are looking good for a fourth. The ACT Greens and ACT Labor work exceptionally well together and put aside a lot of the BS back and forth that can go on between the parties elsewhere.
lefty_e says:
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 at 9:54 am
This will necessarily involve better relations with the Greens. Labor and the Greens have to face the fact that they have no other obvious potential allies.
The Greens ride shotgun for the Libs in the Federal sphere. As long as they run a tactical collaboration with the Liberals there will be no chance of a working relationship between the Greens and Labor.
Rejoice and be glad for the Springtime has come
We can throw down our shovels and go on the bum
Hallelujah, I’m a bum, Hallelujah, bum again
Hallelujah, give us a handout to revive us again
The Springtime has come and I’m just out of jail
Without any money, without any bail
Hallelujah, I’m a bum, Hallelujah, bum again
Hallelujah, give us a handout to revive us again
I have daisys flowering and today I notice that Snowdrops have their little white heads nodding to me as I patrol the yard seeking jobs to put off for another week.
Early spring ❓
lizzie @ #77 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 10:15 am
Oh, by the police – all good then. Wasn’t a policeman out there teaching them how to shoot?
I suppose the question is, who scares people the most? The Tax Office, or Robo-debt? And how many people pay up rather than fight?
ItzaDream
I agree. Bit suss.
ItzaDream @ #645 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 10:12 am
G’day Itza,
If the QT interval exceeds 500ms does Scummo induce torsades de pointes?
Sorry.
Resubmerging.
Siddle ahead of Starc? Presumably this a foretaste to the selection of Marsh.
Hohns and Langer should be taken straight to the Tower.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/sport/cricket/the-ashes-2019-mitchell-starc-set-to-be-snubbed-for-first-test-against-england/ar-AAF55Nl?ocid=spartanntp
Michael @ #76 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 10:14 am
Thanks Michael. A really informative if ultimately dispiriting read.
Are there legal beagles around to speak to the High Court’s decision of 1980, that
which triggered the reforms of 1984 only to have them, in bipartisanship, repealed.
It’s hard not to conclude that the major parties don’t want the terms of electioneering tightened too much, and let he is the more dishonest triumph.
Pegasus says:
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 at 8:47 am
The Guardian
Speaking of uncomfortable questions, the Crossbench Five are getting louder in their calls for a federal Icac, after both Labor and the Coalition voted against a parliamentary inquiry into the Crown allegations and possible involvement of former and current parliamentarians. The government referred the allegations to the law enforcement integrity commission, which it, and Labor used as the reason it was rejecting a parliamentary inquiry push. But the commission has no powers to investigate parliamentarians, which is why the crossbench are once again pushing for a federal integrity commission to deal with these issues.
The Integrity Commission is not an investigative body. It is not the case that parliamentarians are exempt from inquiry. Rather, the Commission is a monitoring agency. It does not investigate or collect evidence or bring charges.
https://www.aclei.gov.au/acleis-role
It’s doubtful that the Parliament is equipped to ‘investigate’ possible crimes. This is not a legislative or political function. It is an executive function.
Nonetheless, the allegations against Crown are serious and they should be properly investigated by a law enforcement body that has the relevant powers to gather evidence and initiate criminal proceedings.
The Green complaint here is without merit. Politicians should not investigate each other in criminal matters.
KayJay @ #80 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 10:17 am
Love snowdrops. Tanks for de memories.
A poor fuxking job by liberals.
1. Truck fire on M5 causes delay over an hour.
2. One of the buses started to fall apart and was forced to abandon.
KayJay
Very nice, but are they the English snowdrops, or the Australian snowflakes?
(Response of a plant snob. I have both in my garden.)
rhwombat @ #84 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 10:21 am
Howdy Doc. The old QT interval. Nothing like a long repolarisation time to unsettle things. Guess the Labor party are having their repolarisation interval as we speak!
ItzaDream @ #93 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 10:39 am
We haven’t flatlined yet. 😀
My son’s Robodebt was taken out of his tax return before he received what remained.
Perhaps Columbaris could show contrition by setting up a food van for the homeless and unemployed.
C@t
So no opportunity to dispute it? Of course not.
lizzie @ #90 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 10:39 am
Praise the Lord. My wife although blind would have known. I am just going outside now and may be some time.
Photograph to follow soonish. Should they turn out to be English will they need to be shielded during the Ashes series.
lizee,
And, his workers!
And guess who?
KayJay
😆
Have to go.
Hard to see UBI getting much traction. Eh what.