Quite a bit to report of late, starting out with federal redistribution prospects for the coming term:
• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a research paper on the likely outcome of the state and territory seat entitlement determinations when they are calculated in the middle of the next year. The conclusion reached is as it was when I did something similar in January: that Western Australia is sure to lose the sixteenth seat it gained in 2016; that Victoria will sneak over the line to gain a thirty-ninth (and its second in consecutive electoral cycles, a prodigiousness once associated with Queensland); and the Northern Territory will fall below it and lose one of its two seats.
• The West Australian reports Liberal and Labor will respectively be lobbying for Burt and Hasluck to be abolished, though given the two are neighbours, this is perhaps a fine distinction – the effect of either might be to put Matt Keogh and Ken Wyatt in competition for an effectively merged seat. The view seems to be that an eastern suburbs seat would be easiest to cut, as the core electorates of the metropolitan area are strongly defined by rivers and the sea, and three seats are needed to account for the state’s periphery. (There was also a new set of state boundaries for Western Australia published on Friday, which you can read all about here).
• The predicted outcome in the Northern Territory, whose population has taken a battering since the end of the resources construction boom, would leave its single electorate with an enrolment nearly 30% above the national norm – an awkward look for what would also be the country’s most heavily indigenous electorate. The Northern Territory has had two electorates since 1996, but came close to losing one in 2003 when its population fell just 295 below the entitlement threshold. This was averted through a light legislative tweak, but this time the population shortfall is projected to approach 5000.
Poll news:
• The word from Essential Research that its voting intention numbers will resume in “a month or two”. Curiously, its public line is that its reform efforts are focused on its “two-party preferred modelling”, when the pollsters’ critical failures came on the primary vote.
• Kevin Bonham laments the crisis-what-crisis stance adopted by The Australian and YouGov Galaxy upon the return of Newspoll. My own coverage of the matter was featured in a paywalled Crikey article on Monday, which concluded thus:
In the past, YouGov Galaxy has felt able to justify the opaqueness of its methods on the grounds that its “track record speaks for itself”. That justification will be finding far fewer takers today than it did before the great shock of May 18.
• Liberal insiders have been spruiking their success in winning back the support of working mothers as the key to their election win, as related through an account of internal party research in the Age/Herald. However, Jill Sheppard at the Australian National University retorts that the numbers cited are quantitative data drawn from qualitative research (specifically focus groups), which is assuredly not the right idea.
Preselection news:
• There are six preselection nominees for Mitch Fifield’s Liberal Senate vacancy in Victoria: Sarah Henderson, until recently the member for the Corangamite, and generally reckoned the favourite; Greg Mirabella, former state party vice-president and the husband of Sophie Mirabella, whose prospects were talked up in The Australian last week; Chris Crewther, recently defeated member for Dunkley; state politics veteran and 2018 election casualty Inga Peulich; and, less familiarly, Kyle Hoppitt, John MacIsaac and Mimmie Watts.
• The Australian last week reported a timeline had yet to be set for the preselection to replace Arthur Sinodinos in New South Wales. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Liberal moderates might be planning on backing a candidate of the hard Right, rather than one of their own in James Brown, state RSL president and son-in-law of Malcolm Turnbull. The idea is apparently that the nominee will then go on to muscle aside factional colleague Connie Fierravanti-Wells at preselection for the next election. However, all that’s known of that potential candidate is that it won’t be Jim Molan, who is opposed by feared moderate operator Michael Photios.
• The Sydney Morning Herald report also relates that former Premier Mike Baird’s withdrawal from the race to become chief executive of the National Australia Bank has prompted suggestions he might have his eye on a federal berth in Warringah at the next election. Also said to be interested is state upper house MP Natalie Ward.
Electoral law news:
• The Guardian reports that Oliver Yates, independent candidate for Kooyong, is challenging Josh Frydenberg’s win on the grounds that Chinese language signs demonstrating how to vote Liberal looked rather a lot like instructions from the Australian Electoral Commission. The complainant must establish that the communication was “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”, which has provided a rich seem of unsuccessful litigation over the decades. It seems it is acknowledged that this is only the test case, in that it is not anticipated the court will overturn the result. Such might have been the case in Chisholm, which was the focal point of complaints about the signs, and where the result was much closer. However, Labor has opted not to press the issue, no doubt because it has little cause to think a by-election would go well for them. Yates’s challenge has been launched days prior to today’s expiry of the 40-day deadline for challenges before the Court of Disputed Returns.
• The difficulty of getting such actions to stick, together with the general tenor of election campaigning in recent years, have encouraged suggestions that a truth-in-advertising regime may be in order, such as operates at state level in South Australia. More from Mike Steketee in Inside Story.
Confessions says:
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 at 10:09 am
What!
An hour of Morrison answering every question.
No thanks.
lizzie (Block)
Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 10:53 am
Comment #99
May be snowflakes. I’ll pop this up again later this afternoon. 🌷🌷 I have just ordered some tulip bulbs. 🌷🌷
ItzaDream says:
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 at 9:21 am
Yep!
As empathy requires no monetary outlay, unfunded empathy could be defined as;
the inability to understand or share the feelings of another.
lizzie @ #97 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 10:49 am
Not to mention the time and money it would take to do so, which would end up costing more than the debt raised against him. Or, in other words, they’ve figured out how to get you coming, and going. 😐
lizzie @ #96 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 10:48 am
Nah. He’ll probably go into politics for the Liberal Party. 😆
Hmm, if you’re referring to bulbs, snowflakes are no more “Australian” than snowdrops.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leucojum_aestivum
Give me a Freesia growing wild in the paddock any day! 🙂
The Columbaris interview would seem to be part of a brand damage control exercise.
It is interesting that the ABC would be willing to be part of such an exercise.
I would like to hear their justification for doing the interview.
From the debate.
WB,
There is a minor typo in the post.
should be:
Barney in Makassar @ #110 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 11:18 am
A free lunch?
C@tmomma says:
🙂
Vote 1 Jonquils out in the paddock.( Extra bonus points if they are Erlicheer. 🙂 )
The Guardian
The crossbench have put forward their federal anti-corruption agency demands. Paul Karp was at the press conference and will bring you something on that very soon. In the mean time, here is what they, and the Australia Institute have to say:
“Integrity and accountability are critical features of a healthy democracy. Without a Federal Integrity Commission with teeth, public trust and confidence in our Federal Parliament will continue eroding,”said The Hon David Harper AM, former Victorian Supreme Court Judge and member of the Australia Institute National Integrity Committee.
Centre Alliance Crossbench MP Rebekha Sharkie said Independents and Minor Party Members wanted the 46th Parliament to establish a transparent, publicly accessible and properly resourced agency that could do the job the Australian people expected it to do.
“This is a once in a generation opportunity so let’s do it once and let’s do it right,” said Rebekha Sharkie, Centre Alliance Member for Mayo.
“This is such an important area of public policy but the Government is ignoring it,” said Senator Rex Patrick, Centre Alliance.
“I will introduce legislation for an ICAC with teeth. The latest Crown saga reinforces the need for a real ICAC,” said Adam Bandt, Greens Member for Melbourne.
“There’s an urgent need for a National Integrity Commission and not the woefully inadequate model the Government has put forward. The community is sick and tired of dodgy behaviour in Canberra. They want to see real action to tackle corruption – not just a pretence or half-baked measures,” said Andrew Wilkie, Independent Member for Clark.
“Australians have an expectation that the Parliament and public service meet the highest standards of integrity. We urgently need an effective, national anti-corruption body that is independent, well-resourced and with broad jurisdiction. It’s time for transparency and accountability,” said Zali Steggall, Independent Member for Warringah.
“Australians’ trust in Parliament is very low. I will work with my Crossbench colleagues in the House and Senate for the establishment of a fully-resourced commission that has independent authority to investigate, to hold public hearings, to deal effectively with political and public sector misconduct and corruption and to publish its findings. This is a clear way forward to restore trust in our Parliament,”said Helen Haines, Independent Member for Indi.
“The Parliament is less than four weeks old and already we have seen four cases that would have been referred to a Federal ICAC and according to the Government there’s nothing to see here? It’s disgraceful – we need to get the dirty money out of politics and a Federal ICAC with teeth is the way to do it,” said Senator Jacqui Lambie, Independent Senator for Tasmania.
JBishop enjoyed QT plenty when she was able to take snide potshots at Gillard by asking Rudd when he was returning to Bougainville (Boganville)
She was a NASTY piece of work, like the rest of them!. Hissing and clawing at Gilliard!.
They are the Machiavellian Mob!.
C@tmomma @ #107 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 11:14 am
Can you believe that after the big family Sunday lunch (baked dinner we called it), we would walk the local suburban streets picking abundant wild Fressias growing along the unsealed road verges. The scent was house filling, unlike today’s shop hybrids.
Barney
My understanding is that Colombaris is required, as part of his sentencing, to publically condemn underpayment of staff. I would see the ABC interview in that context.
zoomster says:
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 at 11:37 am
If that’s the primary focus, then fair enough
Pegasus says:
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 at 11:30 am
The Guardian
The crossbench have put forward their federal anti-corruption agency demands. Paul Karp was at the press conference and will bring you something on that very soon. In the mean time, here is what they, and the Australia Institute have to say:
——————————-
Can any member of house reintroduce the federal ICAC Bill which was passed in the last parliament , or nothing can be done .
If nothing can be done why dont the independent introduce new bill , and force Morrison and his cronies to do something now
briefly
Re your oft mentionned fav “Green Valley” … thought you might like this long article by Sean Kelly in The Monthly:
Mark Latham: The outsider
https://outline.com/hHVE9G
scott
“I will introduce legislation for an ICAC with teeth. The latest Crown saga reinforces the need for a real ICAC,” said Adam Bandt, Greens Member for Melbourne.
Greens do nothing party along with LNP of corruption
Has greens refunded that dodgy money yet?
Jaeger
I apologise. I was in a rush to leave for shops. Of course none of the common garden bulbs such as snowdrops, snowflakes, bluebells are indigenous. I meant that in Oz, snowflakes are called snowdrops.
A little pushback against Frydenberg?
this is for the labor partisans here. It ain’t just the Greens who think albo’s labor is getting it wrong.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/30/former-labor-frontbencher-questions-why-alp-backs-legislation-the-party-opposes
Because labor backed unaffordable tax breaks to the wealthy, they have been unable to get stuck into Morrison re: “unfunded empathy” comments and in the future will have to support further cuts to services and increased gov borrowing limits. Labor should have abstained stating their support for some tax cuts, but not making the tax system more regressive and not claiming that someone on $200K per year was not wealthy enough to pay current levels of tax.
The Beasley years show how giving in rather than articulating an alternative results in loss. They should have a transition from coal plan with funding of renewables (including exports of renewable/lower emissions energy and technology), agricultural productivity improvements, and regional re-skilling in affected regions – and make clear this is a 20 year transition. Their half pregnant position on coal will bite them every time. they need to bite the bullet and say – ‘Unless a CCS systems is developed, we know we cannot be using and exporting coal at current rates in 2050. here’s a plan to transition from coal over 20 years rather than wait for the market to hit us over the head in 10-15 years time’.
I bet the largest donations by whatif founder companies is tax dodging…
What do the greens say about their hypercriticalness?
@Michaela Whitebourne:
BuzzFeed apologises to Emma Husar for “hurt and distress” and removes article at the centre of their now-settled defamation fight smh.com.au/national/buzzf… via @smh #auslaw
@Fr Rod Bower
WARNING!!! #UnfundedEmpathy is evidence of @ScottMorrisonMP ‘s warped prosperity theology. WE ARE IN DANGER! #Auspol
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAwpN1tVUAA0-Tr?format=jpg&name=medium
Pegasus says:
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 at 11:42 am
scott
“I will introduce legislation for an ICAC with teeth. The latest Crown saga reinforces the need for a real ICAC,” said Adam Bandt, Greens Member for Melbourne.
————————————————————
When will this happen ,
Yay Real Time is back Saturday!!
It will be hypocritical for the voting public who re-elected Morrison and his cronies crying for a federal ICAC, when at the federal election the same voting public had a chance of a federal ICAC knowing that if Labor won government
Scott @ #133 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 12:04 pm
It’s The Power of One, don’cha know? 😆
Scott @ #133 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 12:11 pm
All of that.
But also Labor should have sold it harder. Is it so difficult to put a picture of European au pairs alongside photos of Dutton and the mates he waived them through for? Or thousands of dead fish alongside photos of Joyce et al? Or bleached coral next to a photo of Morrison waving his lump of coal around Parliament and/or the GBRF’s 12 employees?
a r @ #137 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 12:18 pm
I understand the lamo ad campaign and the ad agency that produced it are grist for the Labor election review mill.
I was very impressed by two interviewees on Fran Kelly this morning.
Ms Downer’s nemesis, Ms R Sharkie, spoke very well and showed great understanding of a number of current matters the cross bench are pursuing, especially the need for a federal “ICAC”.
If Ms Downer was listening and if she has a modicum of wisdom, she surely got the impression that she is a lightweight up against a heavyweight.
The other great interview was by Ms Kathryn Greiner. I have often thought she is mediocre on the Drum. But this morning in discussing the latest issues in the Libs about several sexual assault allegations, she spoke very powerfully and comprehensively about the poor culture in the Libs re women generally. Amongst other things she said that the time had come for quotas. She also pointed out what blind Freddy knows, ie that there are many Coalie MPs who demonstrate every time they open their mouths that the Coalie claims about “merit” based preselections are nonsense.
When I was a kid I remember going around the streets and looking for the flowers of the ‘Honey Bush’ and then plucking them off the hedge they formed the front of house for, and then gleefully sucking out the ‘honey’ from the base of the flower!
Just as well it wasn’t poisonous or hallucinogenic! 😀
Tomorrow is the horses birthday.
🐎 Horses 🐴 Front of horse.
‘fess,
If memory serves me, Hakeem Jeffries is Kamala Harris’ campaign manager.
C@t
I have many toxic plants in my garden, but the flippin deer won’t eat them!
So no responses from dodgy green dealings
lizzie @ #143 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 12:26 pm
If you lived in NSW you could shoot the deer! 😆
C@tmomma @ #139 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 10:26 am
He’s a member of the House representing Brooklyn.
With a gun licence I could shoot deer in Victoria, they’re not protected, but these sneaky creatures are coming down from the hills at night into domestic gardens, where shooting is a bit dangerous.
China’s upping the ante in Hong Kong:
https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/chinese-forces-gathering-at-hong-kong-border-white-house-officials-monitoring-escalation/news-story/82621253f4c093c69834e041713ab34d
Imagine a war between China and Hong Kong, just like the Russia scenario.
Fyrdenberg is being challenged under s.44(i.):
Section 44 citizenship challenge filed against Josh Frydenberg
[‘Michael Staindl, a constituent of Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong, has launched a section 44(1) case against the deputy Liberal leader and treasurer in the court of disputed returns. A spokesman for the court told Guardian Australia the petition was filed today, the last day for such applications.
Staindl has confirmed the challenge, explaining that it queries whether Frydenberg has Hungarian citizenship by descent.
Staindl said:
The long and the short of it is: I’ve known Josh for many years. I’ve been trying to get action on climate change and he makes you feel well heard but I think he’s consistently betrayed me, the electorate and the country on climate change. In the last parliament he gave assurances [of action on the issue] that weren’t convincing to me at all. And as our legislator I think he owes us better integrity than that. He should show us he’s entitled to sit. He might well be, but he’d be stupid if he hasn’t renounced citizenship or can’t prove he [holds only Australian citizenship].”]