Federal election plus two months

Western Australia and the Northern Territory set to lose seats in the House of Reps; Liberals jockey for Senate preselection; foul cried in Kooyong; and latest despatches from the great pollster crisis.

Quite a bit to report of late, starting out with federal redistribution prospects for the coming term:

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a research paper on the likely outcome of the state and territory seat entitlement determinations when they are calculated in the middle of the next year. The conclusion reached is as it was when I did something similar in January: that Western Australia is sure to lose the sixteenth seat it gained in 2016; that Victoria will sneak over the line to gain a thirty-ninth (and its second in consecutive electoral cycles, a prodigiousness once associated with Queensland); and the Northern Territory will fall below it and lose one of its two seats.

The West Australian reports Liberal and Labor will respectively be lobbying for Burt and Hasluck to be abolished, though given the two are neighbours, this is perhaps a fine distinction – the effect of either might be to put Matt Keogh and Ken Wyatt in competition for an effectively merged seat. The view seems to be that an eastern suburbs seat would be easiest to cut, as the core electorates of the metropolitan area are strongly defined by rivers and the sea, and three seats are needed to account for the state’s periphery. (There was also a new set of state boundaries for Western Australia published on Friday, which you can read all about here).

• The predicted outcome in the Northern Territory, whose population has taken a battering since the end of the resources construction boom, would leave its single electorate with an enrolment nearly 30% above the national norm – an awkward look for what would also be the country’s most heavily indigenous electorate. The Northern Territory has had two electorates since 1996, but came close to losing one in 2003 when its population fell just 295 below the entitlement threshold. This was averted through a light legislative tweak, but this time the population shortfall is projected to approach 5000.

Poll news:

• The word from Essential Research that its voting intention numbers will resume in “a month or two”. Curiously, its public line is that its reform efforts are focused on its “two-party preferred modelling”, when the pollsters’ critical failures came on the primary vote.

Kevin Bonham laments the crisis-what-crisis stance adopted by The Australian and YouGov Galaxy upon the return of Newspoll. My own coverage of the matter was featured in a paywalled Crikey article on Monday, which concluded thus:

In the past, YouGov Galaxy has felt able to justify the opaqueness of its methods on the grounds that its “track record speaks for itself”. That justification will be finding far fewer takers today than it did before the great shock of May 18.

• Liberal insiders have been spruiking their success in winning back the support of working mothers as the key to their election win, as related through an account of internal party research in the Age/Herald. However, Jill Sheppard at the Australian National University retorts that the numbers cited are quantitative data drawn from qualitative research (specifically focus groups), which is assuredly not the right idea.

Preselection news:

• There are six preselection nominees for Mitch Fifield’s Liberal Senate vacancy in Victoria: Sarah Henderson, until recently the member for the Corangamite, and generally reckoned the favourite; Greg Mirabella, former state party vice-president and the husband of Sophie Mirabella, whose prospects were talked up in The Australian last week; Chris Crewther, recently defeated member for Dunkley; state politics veteran and 2018 election casualty Inga Peulich; and, less familiarly, Kyle Hoppitt, John MacIsaac and Mimmie Watts.

• The Australian last week reported a timeline had yet to be set for the preselection to replace Arthur Sinodinos in New South Wales. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Liberal moderates might be planning on backing a candidate of the hard Right, rather than one of their own in James Brown, state RSL president and son-in-law of Malcolm Turnbull. The idea is apparently that the nominee will then go on to muscle aside factional colleague Connie Fierravanti-Wells at preselection for the next election. However, all that’s known of that potential candidate is that it won’t be Jim Molan, who is opposed by feared moderate operator Michael Photios.

• The Sydney Morning Herald report also relates that former Premier Mike Baird’s withdrawal from the race to become chief executive of the National Australia Bank has prompted suggestions he might have his eye on a federal berth in Warringah at the next election. Also said to be interested is state upper house MP Natalie Ward.

Electoral law news:

The Guardian reports that Oliver Yates, independent candidate for Kooyong, is challenging Josh Frydenberg’s win on the grounds that Chinese language signs demonstrating how to vote Liberal looked rather a lot like instructions from the Australian Electoral Commission. The complainant must establish that the communication was “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”, which has provided a rich seem of unsuccessful litigation over the decades. It seems it is acknowledged that this is only the test case, in that it is not anticipated the court will overturn the result. Such might have been the case in Chisholm, which was the focal point of complaints about the signs, and where the result was much closer. However, Labor has opted not to press the issue, no doubt because it has little cause to think a by-election would go well for them. Yates’s challenge has been launched days prior to today’s expiry of the 40-day deadline for challenges before the Court of Disputed Returns.

• The difficulty of getting such actions to stick, together with the general tenor of election campaigning in recent years, have encouraged suggestions that a truth-in-advertising regime may be in order, such as operates at state level in South Australia. More from Mike Steketee in Inside Story.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

993 comments on “Federal election plus two months”

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  1. ‘He’s the one who’s infested’: Internet dies of laughter after bug appears to get stuck in Trump’s hair

    President Donald Trump on Tuesday delivered a speech in Jamestown, Virginia, to commemorate the 400th anniversary of democracy in America.

    But many viewers pointed out that as Trump started his speech, he appeared to have something stuck in his hair — which many people believed was a fly or another bug.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/07/hes-the-one-whos-infested-internet-dies-of-laughter-after-bug-appears-to-get-stuck-in-trumps-hair/

  2. Donald Trump’s father was once arrested over deplorable conditions of Maryland apartment buildings

    President Donald Trump’s father was once arrested over the deplorable conditions at his Maryland apartment project.

    The president has spent the week attacking Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD) over poverty in the city of Baltimore, which Trump has called “disgusting” and a “rat and rodent infested mess,” but his own father was taken into police custody for neglecting his property not far away, according to a 1976 report by the Washington Post.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/07/donald-trumps-father-was-once-arrested-over-deplorable-conditions-of-maryland-apartment-buildings/

  3. Eddy Jokovich @EddyJokovich
    ·
    13h
    Shorten in first interview since election loss said he “takes full responsibility for the loss”. ABC article online omits this clear statement, so Twitter attacks Shorten for not taking responsibility for the loss. Why would ABC omit this, when Shorten clearly said it? #AUSPOL

  4. The candidates debate mark2 is on today, and tomorrow

    Which candidates are participating in the Tuesday debate?

    The lineup for Tuesday night includes the following participants: Montana Gov. Steve Bullock; Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana; former Maryland Rep. John Delaney; former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper; Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar; former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke; Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan; Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders; Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and author Marianne Williamson.

    Which candidates are participating in the Wednesday debate?

    The lineup for Wednesday night includes the following participants: Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet; former Vice President Joe Biden; New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker; former secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro; New York Mayor Bill de Blasio; Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard; New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand; California Sen. Kamala Harris; Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and entrepreneur Andrew Yang.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/30/democratic-debate-2019-detroit-time-date-candidates-details-1439241

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Rich pickings today!

    Kym McClymont reports that Chinese billionaire Huang Xiangmo’s relationship with former NSW Labor figures will be the focus of fresh corruption commission hearings next month.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/icac-to-grill-key-labor-figures-over-chinese-donations-and-influence-20190730-p52cai.html
    But it’s not only Labor that’s coming under notice!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/completely-disempowered-liberal-staffers-speak-up-after-alleged-sexual-assaults-20190729-p52bnw.html
    And Eryk Bagshaw tells us that one of the Liberal Party’s most respected women, Kathryn Greiner, has launched an excoriating attack on the party’s boys-club culture.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-ve-changed-my-mind-kathryn-greiner-calls-for-liberal-party-quotas-20190729-p52bqq.html
    Bevan Shields reveals, courtesy of FoI, that there was only a handful of recipients of the classified security advice on the then proposed medeivac legislation that was conveniently leaked to The Australian before the election. Double AFP standards? Never!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6300958/classified-medevac-advice-was-sent-to-just-a-handful-of-senior-officials-before-it-was-leaked/?cs=14350
    The newly appointed Commissioner Reece Kershaw will head the AFP at a critical time, as its post-election raids on journalists raise questions of integrity.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/the-afp-a-question-of-independence-and-integrity,12950
    The Australian’s mark Schliebs reports that laws to protect the private ­metadata of millions of Australians are being subverted by a vast array of organisations, which are using a loophole in data-retention laws to access information only meant to be used by security ­agencies and police. (Google).

    data-snooping-freeforall-loophole-exploited/news-story/be5c6c6f6c4dc095fdc70ed662814bfa

    Dana McCauley explains how Centrelink is turbocharging its Robodebt toy by linking Medicare records to the flawed system. With Stuart Robert’s Pentecostal principles what could possibly go wrong?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/robo-debt-scheme-ramped-up-with-new-medicare-data-matching-initiative-20190730-p52c62.html
    Former RBA and APRA manager David Lewis asserts that APRA has no one to blame but itself for its bad rap.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/apra-has-no-one-to-blame-but-itself-for-bad-rap-20190730-p52c0z.html
    The SMH editorial is pleased that with the federal government burying its head ever deeper in the sand to avoid developing a climate and energy policy, NSW Energy Minister Matt Kean is finally considering developing a state-based policy of his own.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-need-not-wait-for-canberra-to-get-a-climate-policy-20190730-p52c99.html
    San Maiden writes about Emma Husar speaking about the devastating toll of a BuzzFeed report she maintains “slut-shamed” her after winning an apology and the removal of the offending article.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/07/30/emma-husar-buzzfeed-apology/
    The Department of Home Affairs does not keep track of how many people claim asylum at Australian airports, freedom of information documents have revealed. Why not?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/31/home-affairs-department-failed-to-keep-track-of-those-claiming-asylum-at-airports
    In the wake of the Crown Casino allegations NSW Upper House independent Justin Field says there is something rotten with the cosy relationship between gambling interests and NSW politics.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-pollies-response-to-crown-crime-links-is-shocking-20190730-p52c44.html
    And Rob Harris writes that a “sweetheart” visa deal between the federal government and Crown was axed following the arrest of Australian casino employees in China three years ago, with the gaming giant now bracing for a sweeping investigation that could examine its relationship with senior politicians.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/crown-visa-deal-ended-after-explosive-arrests-of-casino-employees-in-china-20190730-p52c9m.html
    Professor Charles Livingstone explains how the Crown allegations show the repeated failures of our gambling regulators.
    https://theconversation.com/the-crown-allegations-show-the-repeated-failures-of-our-gambling-regulators-121173
    A prime minister making an impact on the nation’s lexicon is nothing new. But if Keating was Wildean, Scott Morrison is more Russell Coight says The Guardian’s Gary Nunn.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/30/how-good-are-quiet-australians-scomos-language-legacy
    Facebook has declared it is not “our role to remove content that one side of a political debate considers to be false” in a final, positive, self-assessment of its actions in response to the death tax misinformation circulating on the platform during the May federal election.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jul/31/facebook-says-it-was-not-our-role-to-remove-fake-news-during-australian-election
    Emma Koehn reports that businesses will face criminal and civil penalties from next year if they make or accept cash payments greater than $10,000 amid a federal government crackdown on lost tax revenue. This significantly broadens reporting requirements.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/anonymous-untraceable-new-cash-transaction-rules-slated-for-next-year-20190729-p52bpl.html
    This is a very good article on wage theft and how the restaurant industry is starting to push back.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/30/we-might-laugh-at-sushi-pizza-but-wage-theft-can-be-a-deliberate-business-strategy
    Two academics from the UTS explain how it is shocking yet not surprising that wage theft has become a culturally accepted part of business.
    https://theconversation.com/shocking-yet-not-surprising-wage-theft-has-become-a-culturally-accepted-part-of-business-121038
    Max Kozlowski looks at the efforts to improve question time. Do you think it will ever happen?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/question-time-has-become-a-joke-mp-mobile-phone-ban-on-the-table-20190730-p52c5f.html
    Ross Gittins examines the effects of increased superannuation employer contributions.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/with-super-nothing-is-as-it-appears-the-lowdown-on-super-v-payrises-20190730-p52c27.html
    Zoë Wundenberg says, “Sorry Scott Morrison, you can’t pray poverty away”.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6299232/sorry-scomo-you-cant-pray-poverty-away/?cs=14258
    Professor Mike Letnic provides background on native grasslands and why they matter.
    https://theconversation.com/what-are-native-grasslands-and-why-do-they-matter-121181
    It’s taken 12 long years for the Australian stock market to recover from the punishing effects of the global financial crisis. But the recovery is far from certain warns Elizabeth Knight.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/buyers-beware-as-australian-sharemarket-finally-breaks-records-20190730-p52c67.html
    The government’s Jobactive program for the unemployed is in desperate need of reform, according to government backbencher Matt O’Sullivan, who says people are cycled in and out of courses with no job to show for it.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6302027/jobactive-desperately-needs-reform-says-liberal-senator/?cs=14350
    Stephen Bartholomeusz outlines how NBN Co is considering changes to its pricing structure as retailers complain they are losing money on its services and customers are getting less than they signed up for or the NBN is capable of delivering.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/nbn-co-ponders-changes-to-its-contentious-pricing-structure-20190730-p52c2z.html
    Telstra’s Andy Penn has unloaded on NBNCo.
    https://outline.com/jG7zUs
    The telco industry is showing the same rebellious spirit that inspired former Telstra CEO Sol Trujillo to take on the Howard and Rudd governments more than a decade ago. But it might well be in vain.
    https://outline.com/F8RDq5
    Clive Palmer continues to play games as he is expected to return to court to cross-examine a subpoenaed witness in the Queensland Nickel collapse trial after taking more leave to brief an insolvency expert.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6302220/palmer-to-cross-examine-top-liquidator/?cs=14231&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews
    Palmer’s Townsville nickel refinery was bleeding $1 million a week and sliding towards insolvency in early 2016, the court was told.
    https://outline.com/4EhBWa
    Given the makeup of the Senate Labor is now having to tailor its tactics.
    https://outline.com/HAfep6
    The influx of solar and wind power into the energy grid could trigger federal rules forcing retailers to guarantee supply, driving a wave of new gas power plants to reduce the chance of blackouts.
    https://outline.com/dYuJhY
    Andy Marks pours scorn on the proliferation of motorways.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/build-wall-of-shame-around-the-m4-to-hide-this-symbol-of-failure-20190730-p52c7g.html
    David Rowe reports that Labor leaders have warned of new setbacks in the campaign for Indigenous recognition amid doubts over the Morrison government’s direction on a contentious new “voice” for first Australians in the constitution.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-mps-warn-of-failure-in-securing-a-voice-for-indigenous-australians-20190730-p52ca6.html
    It looks like the religious mafia in the NSW parliament has been successful in delaying introduction of abortion decriminalisation legislation.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/abortion-debate-delayed-after-liberal-mps-push-premier-for-more-time-20190730-p52c6c.html
    Meanwhile In the wake of restrictive U.S. abortion laws, a new Facebook group allows women to access pills, information and even a place to stay.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/the-underground-railroad-for-abortion,12953
    Associated Press says that an unrepentant President Donald Trump has been testing the limits of the nation’s tolerance from the day he took office. Now he has cast off one of the few remaining voices trying to curtail his at times mercurial impulses.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/an-emboldened-donald-trump-s-guardrails-fall-away-20190730-p52c47.html
    There have been mass shootings at elementary schools and high schools and colleges, yoga studios and churches and synagogues, country-music concerts and gay nightclubs, before weddings and during funerals. Nothing changes writes Helene Olen in The Washington Post.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/another-day-another-mass-shooting-when-will-they-end-20190730-p52c3i.html
    Judith Ireland reports that Bill Shorten has called for two controversial appointments to the disability royal commission to be sacked, saying plans to manage conflicts of interests about their previous government roles are not good enough.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/stark-conflict-of-interest-bill-shorten-says-disability-abuse-royal-commissioners-must-go-20190730-p52c1k.html
    And another Aussie athlete bites the dust after being caught out doping.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/australian-triathlete-banned-after-testing-positive-to-epo-20190730-p52c12.html
    Disgusted by drug cheats? Time to take our heads out of the clouds of a fantasy sporting world writes Gary Linnell.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/07/30/shayna-jack-garry-linnell/
    Lisa Martin tells us how Bendigo at peace with its mosque after years of far-right protest.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/30/a-blessing-in-disguise-bendigo-at-peace-with-its-mosque-after-years-of-far-right-protest
    A 63-year-old man abused by a teacher at Geelong College more than 50 years ago has received a $1 million settlement from the exclusive school just hours before the matter was due to reach court.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/geelong-college-pays-1-million-to-sexual-assault-victim-20190730-p52c9f.html
    The Andrews government could seek to claw back a $1 million grant it gave to Presentation College Windsor for renovations two years ago, after the Catholic girls’ school announced plans to shut its doors next year.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/government-could-pursue-closing-catholic-school-over-1-million-grant-20190730-p52ca9.html
    Whenever Trump says ‘infested’, we know he’s talking about people of colour says Afua Hirsch.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/30/trump-infested-baltimore-congresswomen
    I reckon Buzzfeed has earned nomination for “Arseholes of the Week”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/jul/30/buzzfeed-apologises-to-emma-husar-for-distress-caused-by-slut-shaming-article

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe takes us to the casino.

    From Matt Golding.




    Andrew Dyson and the ineffective APRA.

    A ripper from Fiona Katauskas.

    Zanetti isn’t impressed with Barnaby.

    From a cynical Glen Le Lievre.

    Alan Moir and the enhanced Robodebt.

    Michael Leunig has a novel approach to waste recycling.

    Jon Kudelka also has a swipe at Robodebt.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/13ad7431936b2523eff871829e1186ab?width=1024

    From the US







  6. Lenore Taylor
    @lenoretaylor
    · 14m
    Facebook says it was ‘not our role’ to remove fake news during Australian election.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jul/31/facebook-says-it-was-not-our-role-to-remove-fake-news-during-australian-election?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Andrew Catsaras @AndrewCatsaras
    ·
    8m
    No? But they were quite happy to sanction me for posting a photo from the Australian film “Stone” which showed a number of the actors, including Rebecca Gilling, walking out of the water after having had a swim…they were nude. That offended Facebook…the lies? No.

  7. Thanks BK. Just reading Sam Maiden’s article, interesting that the only Labor MP to contact Emma Husar following the settlement of her defamation claim is Bill Shorten.

  8. Oh blessed day for Pegarex. Endless faux fulminations over this historical artefact of the Jamie Clements regime.

    “Kym McClymont reports that Chinese billionaire Huang Xiangmo’s relationship with former NSW Labor figures will be the focus of fresh corruption commission hearings next month.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/icac-to-grill-key-labor-figures-over-chinese-donations-and-influence-20190730-p52cai.html”

    Meanwhile the Liberals seem to be a running a rape club. But hey – look! Over there: Labor. Boo.

  9. Good morning ladeez and gennermun of the PB gardening and unicycle club.
    Thanks William for your excellent intro.
    Thanks also BK for your monumental Dawn Patrol.

  10. Ms Greiner said the Liberal Party organisation was less female-friendly than during the 1980s and “had not kept pace” with broader society.

    “Young men in particular, with very little experience of the real world, they are on the up, and they will knock over anyone who gets in their way,” Ms Greiner said in an interview with The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.

    Party sources said despite recent efforts to recruit more women a “bro culture” remained, with three separate reviews at state and federal level now running simultaneously to address the problem.

    We see the evidence of the blokey culture in reports of “fun” activities in the Young Libs. When I look at some of the younger Lib MPs, they don’t seem to have matured much.

  11. Andrew_Earlwood @ #10 Wednesday, July 31st, 2019 – 7:53 am

    Oh blessed day for Pegarex. Endless faux fulminations over this historical artefact of the Jamie Clements regime.

    “Kym McClymont reports that Chinese billionaire Huang Xiangmo’s relationship with former NSW Labor figures will be the focus of fresh corruption commission hearings next month.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/icac-to-grill-key-labor-figures-over-chinese-donations-and-influence-20190730-p52cai.html”

    Meanwhile the Liberals seem to be a running a rape club. But hey – look! Over there: Labor. Boo.

    They remind me of Trumpists. They’ll allow anything the Liberals do to go through to the keeper, unremarked, because, apparently, ‘that’s just the Liberals (Trump) and we all already know how bad they are’. However, should Labor do something a tenth as bad, well, you will be deafened by the hue and cry and drown in the internet bilgewater that will flood the blog.

    Then when you dare to point out their hypocrisy, the heavy hitters swing by and abuse you.

    What can you do? Just suffer it with good grace, I suppose.

  12. How about Kate McClymont do an expose on Huang Xiangmo’s relationship with prominent Liberal figures?

    I won’t hold my breath.

  13. There may be rational reasons for Columbaris underpaying his staff (such as underqualified people in his pay office, for example), and I’m prepared to believe he’s sorry now, but why is the ABC making such a meal of it? Do they think they can ride on the back of CH10 to gain more viewers?
    No, Leigh, I won’t be watching.

    @_JustinStevens_
    · 13h
    Must watch on @abc730 Wednesday night. @leighsales’ exclusive interview with George Calombaris. Don’t miss it!

  14. While we’re on the subject of territories losing or gaining seats, again I make the point that the ACT is woefully under-represented in the Senate. The ACT has a roughly similar population to that of Tassie but 10 fewer Senators! Canberra’s population continues to grow and very soon they’ll have a larger population than all of Tassie. It’s unacceptable that some Australian’s votes are worth less simply because they live in the national capital. It’s almost as if we are punishing people for living there!

    Of course, there’s ZERO chance the Coalition would want to increase the ACT’s Senate spots, as doing so would be a disaster for them. Most of the extra spots would be won by either Labor or the Greens if they were to be created.

  15. “How about Kate McClymont do an expose on Huang Xiangmo’s relationship with prominent Liberal figures?

    I won’t hold my breath.”

    What? The relationships that were as twice a deep, twice as lucrative and continued way after Labor broke off with Huang? Sacrebleu!

  16. How about Kate McClymont do an expose on Huang Xiangmo’s relationship with prominent Liberal figures?

    I won’t hold my breath.

    “Kathy Jackson who?” That Kate McClymont??

  17. Puffy and Lizzie (responding to your discussion from he previous thread)

    Puffy
    As a distraction, last night on Netflix I watched the last episode, so far, in a series called Travelers. Loosely based on time travellers being sent back to the 21st Century to prevent events which put the human race on to the path to extinction, it tells the stories of the Travelers attempts at changing history. They can only go back as far as the computer age as they need to know the exact time of death of a person so the Traveler, as a consciousness, can move into the ‘host’ immediately after they pass away.

    In one of the last episodes the leader of the team, (they always come in a team of five specialists) was asked about how the human race became under such threat, and why only this time in the 21st was important.

    He said it was only in this time things could be changed. It started with climate change, leading to weather change, starvation, mass migrations, virus and such released from the permafrost and to chaos. Now humans live in domes on yeast-based sludge and endlessly recycled water, (Each traveler who arrives is delighted and amazed by the food, such as a hot-dog or stale doughnut).

    My point is that this is the first direct reference to climate and human extinction I have seen on popular television. It is a good show, interesting script, good production values, good acting and plenty of twists and turns in the story line and good character development.

    Lizzie
    A new development in science fiction? No longer about the wonderful benefits of the future, but more realistic.

    Thanks to both of you for your posts. I will look for Travellers on Netflix.

    Sci Fi is my special subject, and in about 18 months, when I am happy that my current, totally unrelated, project is in a fit state to hand on to others, I will write the book about Sci Fi and what it tells us about the future and our current situation that I have been planning for 20 years.

    One of my concerns has been that most Sci Fi is actually dystopian rather than utopian, by at least a 75% / 25% ratio. I had thought this was unnecessarily gloomy.

    However, I am now reappraising this. At times of great political and technological disruption, wars become more common, and authoritarian / totalitarian rule becomes more likely. Democracy is very fragile, I fear. In the era of machine learning (aka distributing fake news to the people it will influence most) we have seen this with the Brexit / Trump / Bolsanaro / Morrison / Johnson successes.

    The news from the UK and Ireland, where I have spent the past few weeks working in Galway, is bleak. The Tory press in the UK (according to an article I read today in the Irish Independent) is painting Leo Varadkar, the Irish PM, as the villain stopping the good people of England exercising their free choice to leave the EU. I have since confirmed this while watching the BBC in the Bates Motel under the flightpath at Heathrow, where I am staying before the 24 hour trek back to Oz tomorrow. I note that rather than the Irish government, we have a specific person as a villain – someone upon whom to focus hate I guess.

    anyway, the “Machine Learning” disruption is but a small foretaste of the AI (Artificial Intelligence) disruption that will be on us within a decade I suspect.

    Skynet here we come!

  18. “Of course, there’s ZERO chance the Coalition would want to increase the ACT’s Senate spots, as doing so would be a disaster for them. Most of the extra spots would be won by either Labor or the Greens if they were to be created.”

    Oh course, a more objective view is not that ACT is unrepresented in the Senate, but that every State and Territory bar NSW and Victoria are massively over represented. Especially, Tasmania.

  19. I think “unfunded empathy” may become more notorious than “have a go”.

    Ms Benny Saunders @Sculptmud
    ·22h

    My 34 year old son was pushed to suicide due to his inappropriate mental health treatment for anxiety over his unfair Centrelink debt. Within a week of his passing they sent me a robodebt letter demanding I pay his debt in full within 30 days. No phone call. No #unfundedempathy

  20. ABC RN Breakfast had two interviews this morning re referral to ALEIC and the need for a federal ICAC:

    1. https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/crown-casino-visa-deals-referred-to-integrity-commission/11368942

    Guest: Fiona McLeod SC, chair, Accountability Roundtable. She was also Labor’s candidate in Higgins last fed election.

    2. https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/rebekha-sharkie-spearheads-push-stronger-integrity-commission/11369008

    Crossbenchers in both the Lower House and the Senate will unite today to call on the Morrison Government to get a move along and legislate a federal anti-corruption body, but one that has more teeth than the model announced last year.

    Guest: Rebekha Sharkie, Centre Alliance MP

  21. Firefox

    Yeah, but it’s more that Tasmania is over represented than the ACT is under represented.

    I think the ACT would have to become a State to resolve the problem. The trouble with that is, it was created SO that no State would claim to be the premier one, based on being the seat of government, so changing that would actually remove its reason for being – it may as well merge with NSW if that happens, and then it won’t have any Senate seats of its own at all.

  22. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-31/terrorism-laws-extension-bid-by-coalition-lazy-expert-says/11367708

    A former national security watchdog has launched a stinging critique of the Coalition’s demand for Parliament to extend emergency terror laws beyond their scheduled end date, urging Labor not to fold and support the plan.
    :::
    Former Independent National Security Legislation Monitor (INSLM) Bret Walker SC reviewed the legislation in 2012 and recommended significant changes.

  23. The term unfunded empathy is simply ripe for a pizzling. If anything it is a metaphor for how the coalition approach social policy.

  24. D&M

    I have postulated before that the dystopian nature of much SciFi, particularly in the last decade, with the emphasis on memes such as technology taking over the world or zombie invasions, is a way of minimising the importance of climate change – — hey, something’s going to get us, this is just another possibility, equally as likely as a zombie virus.

  25. The term unfunded empathy is simply ripe for a pizzling. If anything it is a metaphor for how the coalition approach social policy.
    ____
    It could be a Pentecostal thing.

  26. Kim Carr:

    Former Labor frontbencher questions why ALP backs legislation the party opposes

    Kim Carr stirs caucus meeting over decision not to fight child sexual exploitation legislation

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/30/former-labor-frontbencher-questions-why-alp-backs-legislation-the-party-opposes

    A former Labor frontbencher, Kim Carr, has challenged his party’s repositioning post-election, asking why the ALP would decline to vote against government legislation that contravened the party’s national policy platform.

  27. CH7 has been doing their masters’ bidding by pursuing those terrible ‘dole bludgers’. No consideration of the reasons why payments are suspended. It’s all because the lazy so-and-sos must be taking advantage of the government’s generosity.

    grace pettigrew @broomstick33
    ·34m
    nearly 80% of #Newstart recipients have had their payments suspended .. so many dole bludgers! #robodebt #auspol
    Quote Tweet

    Sunrise @sunriseon7
    · 2h
    New figures have been released, showing just how many dole bludgers are trying to take advantage of the welfare system.

  28. The Guardian

    Speaking of uncomfortable questions, the Crossbench Five are getting louder in their calls for a federal Icac, after both Labor and the Coalition voted against a parliamentary inquiry into the Crown allegations and possible involvement of former and current parliamentarians. The government referred the allegations to the law enforcement integrity commission, which it, and Labor used as the reason it was rejecting a parliamentary inquiry push. But the commission has no powers to investigate parliamentarians, which is why the crossbench are once again pushing for a federal integrity commission to deal with these issues.

  29. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-seeks-visa-ban-for-controversial-speaker-ahead-of-conference-20190730-p52c9h.html

    Labor has called for a former Breitbart editor-in-chief’s visa to be cancelled ahead of an Australian-first conservative conference that features former prime minister Tony Abbott and Brexit campaign leader Nigel Farage among its keynote speakers.

    Raheem Kassam will speak at next week’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), an export from the United States where it attracts tens of thousands of attendees every year.
    :::
    Along with Mr Farage and Mr Abbott, the Republican-aligned CPAC will feature top Fox News commentator Jeanine Pirro, American Conservative Union chairman Matt Schlapp, and NSW One Nation leader Mark Latham.

    Liberal MPs Amanda Stoker and Craig Kelly will also speak.

    The conference is sponsored by Liberty Works, the American Conservative Union, right-wing think tank Institute of Public Affairs, and conservative grassroots campaigner Advance Australia.

  30. Terminator says:
    Wednesday, July 31, 2019 at 8:38 am
    I agree with Kim Carr for once:

    ——————-

    Why there needs to be a house of reps seat available for Kim Carr , Labor needs a bellower and someone who can pressure the libs/nats

    The softly approach has not worked since the dinosaur years

  31. Bill Shorten was a capable bellower at times in the house of reps, and it worked the libs/nats just can not handle their own medicine back . example Bellowing

  32. lizzie

    And let’s ignore the fact that a lot of these ‘suspensions’ are on spurious grounds – in my son’s case, one of the twenty jobs he applied for said ‘experience preferred but not essential’ and he got pinged because he didn’t have experience – and are lifted as soon as the recipient responds.

  33. Amy R, The Guardian

    We are also talking about abuses of meta data access today, because butter me up and call me milk arrowroot – it turns out that everything people said would happen has happened and the powers aren’t being used as they are meant to be.

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