The Australian Electoral Commission quietly published the full distributions of lower house preferences earlier this week, shedding light on the election’s remaining known unknown: how close One Nation came to maybe pulling off a miracle in Hunter. Joel Fitzgibbon retained the seat for Labor with a margin of 2.98% over the Nationals, landing him on the wrong end of a 9.48% swing – the third biggest of the election after the central Queensland seats of Capricornia and Dawson, the politics of coal mining being the common thread between all three seats.
The wild card in the deck was that Hunter was also the seat where One Nation polled strongest, in what a dare say was a first for a non-Queensland seat – 21.59%, compared with 23.47% for the Nationals and 35.57% for Labor. That raised the question of how One Nation might have done in the final count if they emerged ahead of the Nationals on preferences. The answer is assuredly not-quite-well-enough, but we’ll never know for sure. As preferences from mostly left-leaning minor candidates were distributed, the gap between Nationals and One Nation barely moved, the Nationals gaining 4.81% to reach 28.28% at the final distribution, and One Nation gaining 4.79% to fall short with 26.38%. One Nation preferences then proceeded to flow to the Nationals with noteworthy force, with the final exclusion sending 19,120 votes (71.03%) to the Nationals and 28.97% to Labor.
Speaking of, the flow of minor party preferences between the Coalition and Labor is the one detail of the election result on which the AEC is still holding out. However, as a sequel to last week’s offering on Senate preferences, I offer the following comparison of flows in Queensland in 2016 and 2019. This is based on Senate ballot paper data, observing the number that placed one major party ahead of the either, or included neither major party in their preference order. In the case of the 2016 election, this is based on a sampling of one ballot paper in 50; the 2019 data is from the full set of results.
It has been widely noted that the Coalition enjoyed a greatly improved flow of One Nation preferences in the lower house, but the Senate results offer the interesting twist that Labor’s share hardly changed – evidently many One Nation voters who numbered neither major party in 2016 jumped off the fence and preferenced the Coalition this time. Also notable is that Labor received an even stronger share of Greens preferences than in 2016. If this was reflected nationally, it’s a phenomenon that has passed unnoticed, since the flow of One Nation and United Australia Party preferences was the larger and more telling story.
Other electorally relevant developments of the past week or so:
• Laura Jayes of Sky News raises the prospect of the Nationals asserting a claim to the Liberal Senate vacancy created by Arthur Sinodinos’s appointment to Washington. The Nationals lost one of their two New South Wales seats when Fiona Nash fell foul of Section 44 in late 2017, resulting in a recount that delivered to the Liberals a seat that would otherwise have been held by the Nationals until 2022. Since that is also when Sinodinos’s term expires, giving the Nationals the seat would restore an order in which the Nationals held two out of the five Coalition seats.
• Fresh from her win over Tony Abbott in Warringah, The Australian reported on Tuesday that Zali Steggall was refusing to deny suggestions she might be persuaded to join the Liberal Party, although she subsequently complained the paper had twisted her words. A report in The Age today notes both “allies and opponents” believe Steggall will struggle to win re-election as an independent with Abbott out of the picture, and gives cause to doubt she would survive a preselection challenge as a Liberal.
• Labor is undergoing a personnel change in the Victorian Legislative Council after the resignation of Philip Dalidakis, who led the party’s ticket for Southern Metropolitan region at both the 2014 and 2018 elections. Preserving the claim of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, the national executive is set to anoint Enver Erdogan, a workplace lawyer for Maurice Blackburn, former Moreland councillor and member of the Kurdish community. The Australian reports former Melbourne Ports MP Michael Danby has joined the party’s Prahran and Brighton branches in registering displeasure that the national executive is circumventing a rank-and-file plebiscite. Particularly contentious is Erdogan’s record of criticism of Israel, a sore point in a region that encompasses Melbourne’s Jewish stronghold around Caulfield.
I do not despise Labor.
Nor do the other 80% who give Labor their preference.
Carthage was destroyed.
Astro, I’m still waiting for that moment of denial. I’ve yet to see a big-G Green deny that they despise Labor. I’ve yet to see one declare they will withdraw from their anti-Labor campaigns and instead work with Labor. This has never happened.
I’m obviously not going to hold my breath. The evidence that I’m correct is paraded here at PB on an hourly basis.
briefly fits the definition of a classic case study of a person suffering from full-blown projection, and as such does not require any response.
Astro….since you do not despise Labor, would you call for the Greens to renounce their anti-Labor campaigns? Would you urge them to campaign against the Liberals instead, and to work with Labor?
Thank you, Astrobleme. There you go, briefly.
Pegasus @ #218 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 3:25 pm
Nah, they’re smarter than malcontents that support The Greens. They can add up for a start. They also know that grandstanding to please The Greens doesn’t get you anywhere.
They’re definitely not going to do anything as childish as pull faces behind the Coalition MPs backs.
As sure as night follows day Pegasus’ response is predictable.
Peg….I just have a few minutes up my sleeve today.
By the way, do you despise Labor? You’re a big-G Green. Will you renounce the Green strategy and work with Labor to defeat the Liberals? Are you willing to suspend hostilities?
Join the campaign – Raise the Rate
https://raisetherate.org.au/
Who knew there was an aviation industry in the 1770’s?
Where are your sub-editors Nine/Fairfax?
I’m going to join Extinction Rebellion Australia.
The destruction of the environment is a vital issue for working people. Resistance to the destruction should be collaboratively informed and helped by working people. We can all learn from and contribute to this project.
I urge every bludger to take an interest in this horizontally-organised, democratically inspired and future-oriented campaign.
So, how are those Green types who made hundreds of posts attacking Shorten enjoying Albo now that they finally got him?
Pegasus says:
Friday, July 5, 2019 at 3:39 pm
Join the campaign – Raise the Rate
https://raisetherate.org.au/
Thanks. I joined.
https://ausrebellion.earth/
briefly says:
Friday, July 5, 2019 at 3:44 pm
I’m going to join Extinction Rebellion Australia.
______________
Yeah they were part of the Greens Adani convoy to Qld!!! lmfao 🙂
The federal government should fund post-secondary education and training completely and cancel all outstanding HECS debts. The public benefits of post-secondary education and training are large enough to justify treating it as a public good with no user fees.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/05/labor-to-investigate-how-it-lost-unlosable-election-as-national-secretary-quits
briefly, why don’t you cut and paste your countless, repetitive posts here about why Labor lost the election (it’s all the fault of the Greens dontcha know) and make a submission to this review.
The federal government should significantly increase its investments in scientific research and development and make the results available to all.
The very salutary truth about NewStart is not merely that it’s too low (which it is); it’s that the Liberals will try to find ways to abolish it.
The mutual insurance of workers against unemployment is an expression of their common vulnerability and common dignity. Labor fought very hard for these values prior to and after the Great Depression. We should not surrender this.
The political facts are that Labor have been very much weakened over the last three decades. We’re not in a position to defend the gains we made in the 20th century. This has to be changed.
Until it is changed, the unemployed, the ill-paid, the precariously attached, the low-skilled and the under-employed will be exploited by the Liberals. Their repression will not end but will be intensified. This is absolutely inevitable.
Christine Milne
Verified account @ChristineMilne
@ExtinctionR ‘Stop Adani Convoy’ left Tasmania today to protest against carbon bomb #Adani coal mine 705m tonnes per annum. We’re with you.
It’s good to see Briefly joining the Greens via the Extinction Rebellion. Good work Briefly.
Hah! Like Labor had heaps of options when it came to tax……..Labor had already had an in-principle policy for tax cuts before the election. Does one suppose that, at the end of the day, the quantum would have been so different to the cuts just passed? I don’t think so. I can imagine if Labor had won office, and the LNP were sour grapes when it came to tax cuts, there would have been screams of LNP perfidiousness……from some in Labor. And, stating the bleeding obvious, Labor does not have the numbers in the HR and hardly bags of support in the Senate. For Labor’s critics, it is not a question of caving in but recognising the obvious fact that Labor does not have the numbers. Even if it did, I don’t think the punters would worry about the nitty-gritty. I suspect, as it is, there are going to be a lot of disappointed people who will find their tax refund worth a few hundred bucks only. The Big Surge in the economy come September – all those $5 grand TV sets selling like hot cakes – will likely not happen………….The likes of the Stoke’s West and the Murdoch press will pump it up of course but let;s just wait and see……………………..
Peg…I have made my views known inside Labor. I will again.
For the remarkably little it’s worth, I have not attributed the loss to the Greens. You had a role. But Labor really let itself down and let down the country too. The Greens make life easier for the Liberals. They’re shameless in this respect.
By the way, will the big-G Greens renounce their anti-Labor campaigns?
Astrobleme says:
Friday, July 5, 2019 at 3:30 pm
“I’m not sledging the Greens. I’m stating the plain-as-the-proverbial truth about the intent of their campaigns and the consequences. No Green has ever denied any of it.”
You are spreading shit… With a big shit ladle.
Green party members come here daily and post articles detailing the latest Green wedge aimed at Labor and then protect when Briefly points it out.
A little worried that if the truth is outed, those that support Labor, but give the Greens number one for the environment will be a little pissed off when the realize the Greens main goal is the destruction of Labor. That the environment is just the camouflage for their pro Liberal activities.
“It’s good to see Briefly joining the Greens via the Extinction Rebellion. Good work Briefly.”
Isn’t it though. Kudos briefly
Peg…….rich coming from a Green supporter whose party votes in camera………………….
The Greens will try to exploit Extinction Rebellion. Perhaps I can be some use in preventing that. If the Rebellion becomes an instrument of the Greens it will fail dismally.
At least this convoy won’t provide the LNP with a mass of votes like the first one did.
There’s a lot of good work to be done in the Environment. I will do what I can.
Jeez, not another Stop Adani convoy. Can’t you think of more inventive ways to waste time and piss people off?
Really, the Greens will have to stop trying to destroy the authentic voice of working people one of these days. They have long-since reached the point of diminishing returns wrt their own vote. Every ounce of energy they put into their Anti-Labor campaigns now drives voters to the Right.
This is insane.
The planet is burning and this is what is important:
Damn straight. British airports. And the United army of the sovereign United States of North America (but not Mexico) took them right the fuck over and then bombed the crap out of the British with their own planes, winning the Second Civil Korean War of 1812. The British never recovered.
citizen
“At least this convoy won’t provide the LNP with a mass of votes like the first one did.”
Yep, the first convoy was a massive vote-winner…. for the LNP. More evidence of just how starry-eyed and clueless the Greens are.
Aint it. Time to bail and attend to other matters.
One conspiracy theorist is enough, now frednk, has popped up.
Best to let them emote together without interruption.
It’s time to heal.
Oakeshott Country @ #113 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 11:39 am
I’m sure that was a very ‘lively’ meeting, OC. 😀
a r @ #259 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 4:06 pm
And George Washington rode a plane up the tarmac of the Potomac airport. 😐
Pegasus says:
Friday, July 5, 2019 at 4:06 pm
The planet is burning and this is what is important:
At least this convoy won’t provide the LNP with a mass of votes like the first one did.
____________________________
Yep. You’re right. It’s far more important to ensure that Adani is fast-tracked, liked the last one.
citizen @ #260 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 3:44 pm
At last – the truth revealed through the pages of “The Poll Bludger.”
How else would Cap’n Cook and his band of immortal cricket loving adventurers have been supported on the long ago circumcision of Orstraya ❓
The remnants of the airfields from that time were revealed as a byproduct of Mr. De La Palmer’s election advertisements.
These airfields, even as I write, are being excavated by Orstrayan Gummint archaeologists in a bid to extract information to help save the Great Barrier Reef and the Murray Darling River System.
Donations to this worth scientific cause may be added to one’s franking credits as an allowable deduction for taxation purposes.
Shown below an unretouched photograph of support aircraft during a later Cook voyage.
In other news – as a result of Parliamentary Prayers – rain has been steadily falling on the City and Suburbs of beautiful Newcastle.
⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵
A request to the Manager and Principle Stockholder of The Poll Bludger.
May we soon be advised of the investigation into ways and means of limiting number of daily post to The Poll Bludger ❓
Over – 📻
citizen @ #237 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 3:44 pm
Too busy laughing their heads off?
Can’t wait for Larissa to start wearing her stupid ‘Stop Adani’ earrings again. 😐
Peg….I have not alleged a conspiracy. I have confined myself to characterising the Green campaign against Labor. You’ve never denied the essentials of this campaign. You’ve evaded the point many times.
There is such a campaign. It is leading to the frustration of the values and goals the Greens purport to most dearly cherish. That is the very definition of dysfunction. This arises from the Greens’ studied contempt for Labor.
I’ve been watching a replay of the Kyrgios match and keeping an eye on PB over the last 1hr and the level of emoting is quite something…
It’s so weird that people here think the Greens are to blame for Adani, when they were THE ONLY ONES TO VOTE AGAINST IT.
Why not blame the people who voted FOR IT.
Briefly
“I have confined myself to characterising the Green campaign against Labor. ”
I think you need to take a break, and consider why there are different political parties…
briefly
The race to the bottom on tax cuts will only hurt the upkeep on social services and infrastructure.
A one off payment to low-middle income households is a far more responsible way of boosting economic growth at this time.
The dastardly RAF bombing civilians before Dulles airport was captured by John Wayne and George Washington
“There is such a campaign. It is leading to the frustration of the values and goals the Greens purport to most dearly cherish. That is the very definition of dysfunction. This arises from the Greens’ studied contempt for Labor.”
Just chucking more Chum from the Chum bucket…
It’s this bizarre logic that Greens are just not allowed to campaign for the things they believe in, because it forces others to do the opposite…
Crikey this place has become really dumb since the election. And I can see know why the Labor Party lost. Because of idiotic logic like this…
Yep.
And this guy gets it too:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/tanks-and-planes-assemble-for-july-fourth-salute-to-america–which-critics-decry-as-trumps-salute-to-himself/2019/07/04/219aa144-9dda-11e9-9ed4-c9089972ad5a_story.html?utm_term=.9b5d9ed2360c