Preferences and preselections

More data on One Nation voters’ newly acquired and surprisingly forceful enthusiasm for preferencing the Coalition.

The Australian Electoral Commission quietly published the full distributions of lower house preferences earlier this week, shedding light on the election’s remaining known unknown: how close One Nation came to maybe pulling off a miracle in Hunter. Joel Fitzgibbon retained the seat for Labor with a margin of 2.98% over the Nationals, landing him on the wrong end of a 9.48% swing – the third biggest of the election after the central Queensland seats of Capricornia and Dawson, the politics of coal mining being the common thread between all three seats.

The wild card in the deck was that Hunter was also the seat where One Nation polled strongest, in what a dare say was a first for a non-Queensland seat – 21.59%, compared with 23.47% for the Nationals and 35.57% for Labor. That raised the question of how One Nation might have done in the final count if they emerged ahead of the Nationals on preferences. The answer is assuredly not-quite-well-enough, but we’ll never know for sure. As preferences from mostly left-leaning minor candidates were distributed, the gap between Nationals and One Nation barely moved, the Nationals gaining 4.81% to reach 28.28% at the final distribution, and One Nation gaining 4.79% to fall short with 26.38%. One Nation preferences then proceeded to flow to the Nationals with noteworthy force, with the final exclusion sending 19,120 votes (71.03%) to the Nationals and 28.97% to Labor.

Speaking of, the flow of minor party preferences between the Coalition and Labor is the one detail of the election result on which the AEC is still holding out. However, as a sequel to last week’s offering on Senate preferences, I offer the following comparison of flows in Queensland in 2016 and 2019. This is based on Senate ballot paper data, observing the number that placed one major party ahead of the either, or included neither major party in their preference order. In the case of the 2016 election, this is based on a sampling of one ballot paper in 50; the 2019 data is from the full set of results.

It has been widely noted that the Coalition enjoyed a greatly improved flow of One Nation preferences in the lower house, but the Senate results offer the interesting twist that Labor’s share hardly changed – evidently many One Nation voters who numbered neither major party in 2016 jumped off the fence and preferenced the Coalition this time. Also notable is that Labor received an even stronger share of Greens preferences than in 2016. If this was reflected nationally, it’s a phenomenon that has passed unnoticed, since the flow of One Nation and United Australia Party preferences was the larger and more telling story.

Other electorally relevant developments of the past week or so:

Laura Jayes of Sky News raises the prospect of the Nationals asserting a claim to the Liberal Senate vacancy created by Arthur Sinodinos’s appointment to Washington. The Nationals lost one of their two New South Wales seats when Fiona Nash fell foul of Section 44 in late 2017, resulting in a recount that delivered to the Liberals a seat that would otherwise have been held by the Nationals until 2022. Since that is also when Sinodinos’s term expires, giving the Nationals the seat would restore an order in which the Nationals held two out of the five Coalition seats.

• Fresh from her win over Tony Abbott in Warringah, The Australian reported on Tuesday that Zali Steggall was refusing to deny suggestions she might be persuaded to join the Liberal Party, although she subsequently complained the paper had twisted her words. A report in The Age today notes both “allies and opponents” believe Steggall will struggle to win re-election as an independent with Abbott out of the picture, and gives cause to doubt she would survive a preselection challenge as a Liberal.

• Labor is undergoing a personnel change in the Victorian Legislative Council after the resignation of Philip Dalidakis, who led the party’s ticket for Southern Metropolitan region at both the 2014 and 2018 elections. Preserving the claim of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, the national executive is set to anoint Enver Erdogan, a workplace lawyer for Maurice Blackburn, former Moreland councillor and member of the Kurdish community. The Australian reports former Melbourne Ports MP Michael Danby has joined the party’s Prahran and Brighton branches in registering displeasure that the national executive is circumventing a rank-and-file plebiscite. Particularly contentious is Erdogan’s record of criticism of Israel, a sore point in a region that encompasses Melbourne’s Jewish stronghold around Caulfield.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,628 comments on “Preferences and preselections”

Comments Page 3 of 33
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  1. swamprat says:
    Friday, July 5, 2019 at 10:40 am
    Lets plant a lot of trees. That is if you think this shit show is worth saving.

    No, i thought not.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/04/planting-billions-trees-best-tackle-climate-crisis-scientists-canopy-emissions

    Yes, plant trees. At the same time, we have to make sure we do not create a monocultural carbon capture forestry. We have to actively invest in biodiversity as well. This is essential. Land-holders in agriculture are inboard with this. They want to be paid for the provision of ecosystem services. This should be done.

    The Liberals will always promote land clearing. This is a way of advertising job-creation. It’s job creation on the same way that blowing up a bridge is job creation. That is, it destroys something with real inherent value for no long term purpose, for a purpose that actually worsens our problems.

  2. Oakeshott Country says:
    Friday, July 5, 2019 at 10:40 am

    WB
    Under Section 15 can a National be chosen for Sinodinos seat?

    The NSW Parliament should endorse whoever the Libs nominate.

    If they choose to nominate a Nat to reestablish the numbers that should present no problem.

  3. “As I said last night. The next LIEberal campaign just wrote itself.
    Labor has a secret plan to take away your tax cuts.”

    Labor can always propose an alternative tax plan at the next election for Stage 3 which would give the low-middle class more while not providing as much to the higher income groups….for example bring the marginal rate for 40-120k down to 25% while increasing marginal rate for 120-200 to 35%…work it so overall tax decrease matches LNP….this maintains progressivity of the tax scales and avoids the scare campaigns

  4. imaXXXXXandivote @ #79 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 10:50 am

    “As I said last night. The next LIEberal campaign just wrote itself.
    Labor has a secret plan to take away your tax cuts.”

    Labor can always propose an alternative tax plan at the next election for Stage 3 which would give the low-middle class more while not providing as much to the higher income groups….for example bring the marginal rate for 40-120k down to 25% while increasing marginal rate for 120-200 to 35%…work it so overall tax decrease matches LNP….this maintains progressivity of the tax scales and avoids the scare campaigns

    Thank you for the suggestion. I’m going to pass it on. 🙂

  5. S15 says:
    Where a vacancy has at any time occurred in the place of a senator chosen by the people of a State and, at the time when he was so chosen, he was publicly recognized by a particular political party as being an endorsed candidate of that party and publicly represented himself to be such a candidate, a person chosen or appointed under this section in consequence of that vacancy, or in consequence of that vacancy and a subsequent vacancy or vacancies, shall, unless there is no member of that party available to be chosen or appointed, be a member of that party.

    I guess the Libs could say there is no appropriate party member to take his place and the joint sitting would be free to choose a successor from any party

  6. I would like all those insightful people who have all blarney about “what Labor should do now” answer me how left-of-centre parties, in many of the democracies, have lost/are losing the working class vote to the other side of politics?
    Once upon a time, the Alf Garnets and Archie Bunkers of this world were derided and lampooned because they were in a minority. Now this lot have become working class Tories.
    According to William’s piece above, Joel Fitzgibbon was lucky to hold his seat in a former, rock-solid Labor (coal) area in the Hunter. As WB has noted, this is was replicated through other ‘coal’ areas.
    Like the anti-foreigner sentiment in the North of the England with Brexit, the blue-collar lot in the former rust belts of the US for Trump, they were a left-of-centre base. This is no longer the case.
    The basic problem was the Labor PV from its so-called base, in many crucial electorates, went to the LNP, Palmer and ON. Meanwhile, Green preferences seemed to held firm.
    So, smart people, “What should Labor do?”
    Maybe, just maybe, the question of a job now, for this lot – even in the mine – is better than the promise 3,5, 10 years of a job making solar panels and erecting them?
    Bird-in-the-hand and all that stuff?

  7. Melania looks like she’s been to a few Soviet style military parades in her time and is not amused by this one.

  8. Briefly

    “The effect of Green campaigning is to shrink the Labor vote in ways that send their support to the Right. This is not news. This is done knowingly by the Greens. It’s reasonable to conclude it’s deliberate. ”

    Did you bother to read the blog article above by William?
    It dispels this… Greens prefs for Labor went up in QLD.
    The idea that Greens force people to the right is just a thought bubble – where’s your evidence?
    You also need to consider that Family First didn’t run, and that’s a good 3.5%.

    Rather than spewing the same bile day after day, Briefly, why not actually try and understand what’s happening.

    You’re making this blog unreadable.

  9. C@tmomma:

    A bit like this you mean, but with Morrison substituted for TrumP?

    It’s pretty much just fashion: USA elected a fool, so AUS did too. That’s all, the sum of it, three times out of four (at least)

    Fashion, fashion, fashion, Baby!

  10. imaXXXXXandivote @ #102 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 10:50 am

    “As I said last night. The next LIEberal campaign just wrote itself.
    Labor has a secret plan to take away your tax cuts.”

    Labor can always propose an alternative tax plan at the next election for Stage 3 which would give the low-middle class more while not providing as much to the higher income groups….for example bring the marginal rate for 40-120k down to 25% while increasing marginal rate for 120-200 to 35%…work it so overall tax decrease matches LNP….this maintains progressivity of the tax scales and avoids the scare campaigns

    Pretty much what they were proposing during the lead up to the election they just lost.

  11. If you want to provide immediate stimulus it’s more responsible to send every low and middle income earner a cheque than lock in tax changes.

    The Labor partisans here trying to justify Labors neo-lib behaviour are showing desperation.

  12. E. G. Theodore @ #86 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 11:02 am

    C@tmomma:

    A bit like this you mean, but with Morrison substituted for TrumP?

    It’s pretty much just fashion: USA elected a fool, so AUS did too. That’s all, the sum of it, three times out of four (at least)

    Fashion, fashion, fashion, Baby!

    Don’t forget BoJo the Clown! 😀

  13. Mavis Davis @ #89 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 11:08 am

    I’m not sure that it’s a smart idea for Albanese to appear with Dutton. You’d normally expect Dutton’s Shadow to appear, KK:

    https://www.9news.com.au/national/tax-cuts-how-much-will-you-get-politics-news/7323874a-05e4-40ad-bf2e-0f8344eb994c

    Dutton inserted himself into that equation after Pyne vacated his long-standing position. Albanese had been there all along. Though, maybe, it might be better to have KK there instead.

  14. @ Mundo:

    “As I said last night. The next LIEberal campaign just wrote itself.
    Labor has a secret plan to take away your tax cuts.”

    Labor needs to practice better tactical Ninjustsu. Failing to abstain from the final vote was one missed opportunity. The best counter attack to the line that the Government will role out about Labor’s ‘secret plans’ is to propose further tax cuts – and bringing forward the elements of the Government’s stage 2 seems very well targeted – at every opportunity. The Government would then be forced into depriving the very same ‘aspirational’ folk that it wants to wedge Labor against tax cuts until 2022 unless it yields: that would blow the Government’s rhetoric about what might happen from 2024 largely out of the water.

  15. Astrobleme @ #107 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 10:59 am

    Briefly

    “The effect of Green campaigning is to shrink the Labor vote in ways that send their support to the Right. This is not news. This is done knowingly by the Greens. It’s reasonable to conclude it’s deliberate. ”

    Did you bother to read the blog article above by William?
    It dispels this… Greens prefs for Labor went up in QLD.
    The idea that Greens force people to the right is just a thought bubble – where’s your evidence?
    You also need to consider that Family First didn’t run, and that’s a good 3.5%.

    Rather than spewing the same bile day after day, Briefly, why not actually try and understand what’s happening.

    You’re making this blog unreadable.

    briefly is just emoting which helps to alleve his frustrations

  16. “Dutton inserted himself into that equation after Pyne vacated his long-standing position. Albanese had been there all along. Though, maybe, it might be better to have KK there instead.”

    No way. This is the best chance Albo has of connecting directly to the punters in voter land on a regular basis: going up against a risible ogre such as Dutton is an added bonus.

  17. briefly @ 10:49 am

    “Yes, plant trees. At the same time, we have to make sure we do not create a monocultural carbon capture forestry. We have to actively invest in biodiversity as well.”
    ——————

    Indeed. In Australia we desperately need to restore “Country”.

    That will involve restoring the WHOLE local environment: water cycle, plants, animals etc.

  18. Andrew_Earlwood @ #114 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 11:11 am

    @ Mundo:

    “As I said last night. The next LIEberal campaign just wrote itself.
    Labor has a secret plan to take away your tax cuts.”

    Labor needs to practice better tactical Ninjustsu. Failing to abstain from the final vote was one missed opportunity. The best counter attack to the line that the Government will role out about Labor’s ‘secret plans’ is to propose further tax cuts – and bringing forward the elements of the Government’s stage 2 seems very well targeted – at every opportunity. The Government would then be forced into depriving the very same ‘aspirational’ folk that it wants to wedge Labor against tax cuts until 2022 unless it yields: that would blow the Government’s rhetoric about what might happen from 2024 largely out of the water.

    Proposing further tax cuts just prolongs the race to the bottom.

    It’s a cheap, irresponsible political tactic.

  19. the senate vote is complicated…. as clearly the numbers were there to pass the big tax cut stage 3…. but there is question there as to why we did not vote on principle. against a big step towards a flat tax……. to put the genie back in the bottle is very difficult…. like undoing a privatisation. Now what expenditure cuts are planned? Is the budget now unsubstainable on a long term basis?

  20. Andrew_Earlwood @ #95 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 11:13 am

    “Dutton inserted himself into that equation after Pyne vacated his long-standing position. Albanese had been there all along. Though, maybe, it might be better to have KK there instead.”

    No way. This is the best chance Albo has of connecting directly to the punters in voter land on a regular basis: going up against a risible ogre such as Dutton is an added bonus.

    There is that but maybe it would be better for Albanese to vacate the seat to KK on the lower rating Today and decamp over to Sunrise, where all the peeps’ eyeballs he really needs are.

  21. mick Quinlivan @ #119 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 11:15 am

    the senate vote is complicated…. as clearly the numbers were there to pass the big tax cut stage 3…. but there is question there as to why we did not vote on principle. against a big step towards a flat tax……. to put the genie back in the bottle is very difficult…. like undoing a privatisation. Now what expenditure cuts are planned? Is the budget now unsubstainable on a long term basis?

    This why it’s so irresponsible behaviour form Labor and the L/NP.

    If iron ore prices tank and the economy remains stagnant social services and infrastructure funding get cut.

    The neo-libs in Labor and the L/NP are so irresponsible.

  22. This says it all about the Coalition sleight of hand:

    Sleeping Giants Oz
    @slpng_giants_oz

    #TAXCUTS: Excited phone call from a friend – 2 part-time jobs earning about $27k pa, she thought she was getting $1080.

    NOT a happy camper when she found out how little she will get.

    Media FAIL

    #Auspol

  23. Bogan members for Hunter
    1928-58 Rowley James
    1960-80 Bert James
    A father and son team of Hillbillies whose only apparent abilities were to vote with Labor (except when Rowley was a member of Lang Labor) and accept the largese of the Soviet Union.
    And yet they were immensely popular with primary votes exceeding 70%. This is ancient history but a significant number of electors chose a bogan over Joel. Something Labor needs to note

  24. Rex Douglas @ #100 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 11:22 am

    mick Quinlivan @ #119 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 11:15 am

    the senate vote is complicated…. as clearly the numbers were there to pass the big tax cut stage 3…. but there is question there as to why we did not vote on principle. against a big step towards a flat tax……. to put the genie back in the bottle is very difficult…. like undoing a privatisation. Now what expenditure cuts are planned? Is the budget now unsubstainable on a long term basis?

    This why it’s so irresponsible behaviour form Labor and the L/NP.

    If iron ore prices tank and the economy remains stagnant social services and infrastructure funding get cut.

    The neo-libs in Labor and the L/NP are so irresponsible.

    Josh Frydenburg was on ABC News Breakfast this morning, hand on heart, saying there will be no service cuts in order to pay for the tax cuts.

    We’ll see.

    Maybe ‘Efficiency Dividends’ instead?

  25. Watching that channel 9 clip Albo was up against both Deb and Dutto (no surprises there). Dutto had the best line at the end “you are tying yourself in knots”, but that is because the Government’s pea and thimble trick hasn’t quite penetrated the consciousness of the punters yet. The best way to bring home that point is to keep proposing the stage 2 tax cuts to start ASAP in this term of Parliament that the Government is denying tax payers until July 2022 – in the next term.

    As soon as the Government votes down bringing forward stage 2 in some separate debate the blinkers will rapidly fall away from the public’s eyes. Even among low interest voters.

  26. OC,
    I suggested as much myself earlier this morning. Which Labor member in the Hunter electorate has the most tatts and a bogan wife with tatts to boot?

  27. “There is that but maybe it would be better for Albanese to vacate the seat to KK on the lower rating Today and decamp over to Sunrise, where all the peeps’ eyeballs he really needs are.”

    Isn’t there a way he can do both? Its not like he’s under contract to Ch9.

  28. I don’t think that your Queensland table supports your claim of “stronger flow of preferences from Greens to Australian Labor Party”. The big change was the slump in the ‘neither’ total, or, described in positive terms;- an increase in the number in the sample who followed the ballot through to a major party.
    In 2016, roughly 78% of the sample of Green Senate #1 votes identified a major party as being preferred.
    In 2019 this percentage was 86%. I will return to why this may be so.
    Of course, in this context, there were more votes intended to preference ALP, but in percentage terms, many more votes which intended to prefer LNP. ALP “increased” from 86.3% of flow to 84.4% of the flow.
    LNP changed by reciprocal percentages of from 13.7% to 15.5811% over the time interval.
    Reason for the jump in no. of Green voters to fill there ballot to the inclusion of a major?
    1. There has been advance publicity given to the notion of including a major in the 6 or 12 preferences so that ‘your vote is not wasted’.
    2. PHON is now a clear and present danger to Greens philosophy, & a competitor for the last Senate seats to be filled, & renowned as a preference magnet, with Malcolm Roberts a sharp example of some of these points. This would be a motivator for Greens to number their ballot as far as a major, & not waste their opportunity to shape the Senate, thinking of the PHON alternative….
    The reciprocal applies exactly. The other (larger) change was the increase in PHON voters who sought out a major.
    So in summary, the real passion in this race was between PHON and the Greens. The ‘apathetic’ Green vote fell by a third. The ‘apathetic’ PHON vote fell by half.

  29. Andrew_Earlwood @ #125 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 11:25 am

    Watching that channel 9 clip Albo was up against both Deb and Dutto (no surprises there). Dutto had the best line at the end “you are tying yourself in knots”, but that is because the Government’s pea and thimble trick hasn’t quite penetrated the consciousness of the punters yet. The best way to bring home that point is to keep proposing the stage 2 tax cuts to stage ASAP in this term that the Government is denying tax payers until July 2022.

    As soon as the Government votes down bringing forward stage 2 in some separate debate the blinkers will rapidly fall away from the public’s eyes. Even among low interest voters.

    ‘Labor – the party of lower taxes’ …?

    Liberal lite more like it.

  30. Astrobleme says:
    Friday, July 5, 2019 at 10:59 am
    Briefly

    “The effect of Green campaigning is to shrink the Labor vote in ways that send their support to the Right. This is not news. This is done knowingly by the Greens. It’s reasonable to conclude it’s deliberate. ”

    Did you bother to read the blog article above by William?
    It dispels this… Greens prefs for Labor went up in QLD.
    The idea that Greens force people to the right is just a thought bubble – where’s your evidence?
    You also need to consider that Family First didn’t run, and that’s a good 3.5%.

    Rather than spewing the same bile day after day, Briefly, why not actually try and understand what’s happening.

    You’re making this blog unreadable.

    You’re missing the point. The effect of the Green campaign against Labor is to contribute to the erosion in Labor support. That support may not go to the Greens (it doesn’t) but it does gravitate to the Right. This has been occurring for many years. Such a shift was highly accentuated in Queensland in May.

    The Green campaign is intended to raise disaffection with Labor. It works. The Liberals do the same thing though they use different memes. That also works.

    The combination of Green+Liberal political action against Labor is indisputably eroding Labor’s PV and the Labor-positive plurality.

    I dunno why the Greens dislike seeing this in print. This is a positive reflection of their success. They will celebrate in private, I guess.

    The fundamental truth is the Greens are not a proxy for Labor. They are not allies of Labor. They are not Labor-positive. They thoroughly detest Labor. They run as outliers to the Liberals in this respect. The consequence is that social justice, economic justice, social democracy and the environment are in the hands of the Reactionaries. The Greens have helped create and deliver this reality. Get used to it.

    No Green has yet to deny this. No Green will go out and campaign for Labor rather than against Labor.

  31. “Liberal lite more like it.”
    Have you ever stopped to think Rex that slur might actually be what the punters are looking for from Labor? Especially the ones that matter in the outcomes of elections? I’d say that this is exactly the missing cohort that voted for Rudd in 07, Hawke in 83′ and even Whitlam in 69 & 72.

  32. briefly @ #131 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 11:33 am

    Astrobleme says:
    Friday, July 5, 2019 at 10:59 am
    Briefly

    “The effect of Green campaigning is to shrink the Labor vote in ways that send their support to the Right. This is not news. This is done knowingly by the Greens. It’s reasonable to conclude it’s deliberate. ”

    Did you bother to read the blog article above by William?
    It dispels this… Greens prefs for Labor went up in QLD.
    The idea that Greens force people to the right is just a thought bubble – where’s your evidence?
    You also need to consider that Family First didn’t run, and that’s a good 3.5%.

    Rather than spewing the same bile day after day, Briefly, why not actually try and understand what’s happening.

    You’re making this blog unreadable.

    You’re missing the point. The effect of the Green campaign against Labor is to contribute to the erosion in Labor support. That support may not go to the Greens (it doesn’t) but it does gravitate to the Right. This has been occurring for many years. Such a shift was highly accentuated in Queensland in May.

    The Green campaign is intended to raise disaffection with Labor. It works. The Liberals do the same thing they use different memes. That also works.

    The combination of Green+Liberal political action against Labor is indisputably eroding Labor’s PV and the Labor-positive plurality.

    I dunno why the Greens dislike seeing this in print. This is a positive reflection of their success. They will celebrate in private, I guess.

    The fundamental truth is the Greens are not a proxy for Labor. They are not allies of Labor. They are not Labor-positive. They thoroughly detest Labor. They run as outliers to the Liberals in this respect. The consequence is that social justice, economic justice, social democracy and the environment are in the hands of the Reactionaries. The Greens have helped create and deliver this reality. Get used to it.

    No Green has yet to deny this. No Green will go out and campaign for Labor rather than against Labor.

    Labors capitulation to the right only gives the right credence in the voters minds which leads to a higher vote for the right.

    Perhaps if Labor capitulated to the Greens it might work in theirs and the voters favour.

  33. C@t
    My first branch meeting held on a Sunday when there was still restricted trading, so the branch put on a keg. Bert turned up for a change.
    Graham Conway the branch president called on Bert as member for Hunter and Deputy Whip of the Caucus to give the Federal Political Report.
    Bert: “What time do you pricks tap the keg?”

  34. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, July 5, 2019 at 11:22 am

    The Greens have done untold damage to the social contract. Social democracy, economic justice and the environment are in serious trouble as a result of Green treachery. They have betrayed the values they purport to cherish. The are the allies of the Reactionaries. Yesterday’s display in the Senate is the clearest possible illustration of that.

    They will follow their successes in Queensland with more contumely.

  35. Labor have not capitulated to anything. They have correctly resisted the mischief of the Greens and the other anti-Labor/anti-worker faces in the Senate.

  36. Briefly

    “The effect of the Green campaign against Labor is to contribute to the erosion in Labor support. ”

    All made up. You have no data.
    This is just your own personal speculation – and is counter to the ACTUAL data provided in the post above.

    Perhaps you should read it.

  37. Phil

    “I don’t think that your Queensland table supports your claim of “stronger flow of preferences from Greens to Australian Labor Party”.”

    It’s not my table.

    I don’t understand the point you’re making.
    Can you make it more succinct?

  38. Barney in Makassar @ #95 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 10:27 am

    KJ,

    ♫Hi de hi de ♪ho etc.

    6. D. The bible tells us we are all family.

    7. False. Pig’s live in a sty, mullets live in water. 🙂

    Thanks for your thoughtful reply.

    I cain’t hardly wait for my latest great grandson to get his education done with.
    The little boy needs to now stuff to help him on his way through life.
    First Lesson – Alway vote Labor – even if the candidates are moronic effwits.
    Second Lesson – see Lesson One. 😎

  39. Andrew_Earlwood @ #132 Friday, July 5th, 2019 – 11:37 am

    “Liberal lite more like it.”
    Have you ever stopped to think Rex that slur might actually be what the punters are looking for from Labor? Especially the ones that matter in the outcomes of elections? I’d say that this is exactly the missing cohort that voted for Rudd in 07, Hawke in 83′ and even Whitlam in 69 & 72.

    Where do you think the 10% Green vote originated from ?

    Look, Labors shift to the right to politically distance themselves from the Greens isn’t working.

    Labor can either maintain the current trajectory to Lib lite and die a slow and painful death …or steal the Greens platform and be the true progressive force on the left.

  40. Speaking of preference flows and minor parties, has anyone heard a peep from Clive Palmer, his party, or any of its candidates since the election?

    I was quite interested in the UAP platform, and would like to contact a senior party official to make enquiries about joining, and also for further details about that international airport the Chinese built in the WA desert so they could land military fighter jets from aircraft carriers when the occupation of Australian iron ore minefields commences in the near future.

    This sounded like a serious threat to Australia, but since the election – as far as I can tell – there have been no government moves to secure this secret airport, and no media articles concerning it, particularly with regards to which government permitted it to be built.

    Could it be that we haven’t seen much of Mr Palmer (surely the greatest PM we never had) because he’s in secret consultation with Morrison and Dutton over how best to counter this Communist threat?

  41. OC … the James family were not bogans but a legitimate voice of the coal fields I think even one was a coalminer. I can remember Ken Booth an mp for some of the same area was very very well respected across the alp groups… think his working life before politics was as a school teacher.He could have won the alp deputy leadership where Frank Walker could not. There is an argument that today labor politicians don’t have sufficent life experience before this job. This is partly right

  42. Cat, I think it’s a bad look, sitting alongside Dutton. Albo’s now the LOTO, and as such he should distance himself from engaging with government ministers save for in the parliament, allowing shadows to hone their debating, knowledge skills, his equal being Morrison. It would have been better had he done a solo interview. Hawke trusted his ministers, giving them free rein until and if they stuffed up, his ministry arguably the best since we came of age, most certainly head and shoulders above Morrison’s, a number of whom are crooks, freeloaders, despicables.

  43. Briefly

    “The Greens have done untold damage to the social contract. ”

    good God…
    This is all very poetic. But really lacks any solid data.

    You’ve turned into the Tony Abbott of this blog; all slogan and no substance.
    I guess like Tony Abbott you’ll actually convince a lot of people. Because most people don’t actually go looking for data.

    Did you investigate the impact of Family First not running?

  44. timdunlop
    @timdunlop

    “There is little doubt that the unchallenged victories Anthony Albanese handed the government this week have all-but ensured Scott Morrison a second term.”
    To win again, Labor has to be a genuine alternative, not Liberal Lite.

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