The Australian Electoral Commission quietly published the full distributions of lower house preferences earlier this week, shedding light on the election’s remaining known unknown: how close One Nation came to maybe pulling off a miracle in Hunter. Joel Fitzgibbon retained the seat for Labor with a margin of 2.98% over the Nationals, landing him on the wrong end of a 9.48% swing – the third biggest of the election after the central Queensland seats of Capricornia and Dawson, the politics of coal mining being the common thread between all three seats.
The wild card in the deck was that Hunter was also the seat where One Nation polled strongest, in what a dare say was a first for a non-Queensland seat – 21.59%, compared with 23.47% for the Nationals and 35.57% for Labor. That raised the question of how One Nation might have done in the final count if they emerged ahead of the Nationals on preferences. The answer is assuredly not-quite-well-enough, but we’ll never know for sure. As preferences from mostly left-leaning minor candidates were distributed, the gap between Nationals and One Nation barely moved, the Nationals gaining 4.81% to reach 28.28% at the final distribution, and One Nation gaining 4.79% to fall short with 26.38%. One Nation preferences then proceeded to flow to the Nationals with noteworthy force, with the final exclusion sending 19,120 votes (71.03%) to the Nationals and 28.97% to Labor.
Speaking of, the flow of minor party preferences between the Coalition and Labor is the one detail of the election result on which the AEC is still holding out. However, as a sequel to last week’s offering on Senate preferences, I offer the following comparison of flows in Queensland in 2016 and 2019. This is based on Senate ballot paper data, observing the number that placed one major party ahead of the either, or included neither major party in their preference order. In the case of the 2016 election, this is based on a sampling of one ballot paper in 50; the 2019 data is from the full set of results.
It has been widely noted that the Coalition enjoyed a greatly improved flow of One Nation preferences in the lower house, but the Senate results offer the interesting twist that Labor’s share hardly changed – evidently many One Nation voters who numbered neither major party in 2016 jumped off the fence and preferenced the Coalition this time. Also notable is that Labor received an even stronger share of Greens preferences than in 2016. If this was reflected nationally, it’s a phenomenon that has passed unnoticed, since the flow of One Nation and United Australia Party preferences was the larger and more telling story.
Other electorally relevant developments of the past week or so:
• Laura Jayes of Sky News raises the prospect of the Nationals asserting a claim to the Liberal Senate vacancy created by Arthur Sinodinos’s appointment to Washington. The Nationals lost one of their two New South Wales seats when Fiona Nash fell foul of Section 44 in late 2017, resulting in a recount that delivered to the Liberals a seat that would otherwise have been held by the Nationals until 2022. Since that is also when Sinodinos’s term expires, giving the Nationals the seat would restore an order in which the Nationals held two out of the five Coalition seats.
• Fresh from her win over Tony Abbott in Warringah, The Australian reported on Tuesday that Zali Steggall was refusing to deny suggestions she might be persuaded to join the Liberal Party, although she subsequently complained the paper had twisted her words. A report in The Age today notes both “allies and opponents” believe Steggall will struggle to win re-election as an independent with Abbott out of the picture, and gives cause to doubt she would survive a preselection challenge as a Liberal.
• Labor is undergoing a personnel change in the Victorian Legislative Council after the resignation of Philip Dalidakis, who led the party’s ticket for Southern Metropolitan region at both the 2014 and 2018 elections. Preserving the claim of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, the national executive is set to anoint Enver Erdogan, a workplace lawyer for Maurice Blackburn, former Moreland councillor and member of the Kurdish community. The Australian reports former Melbourne Ports MP Michael Danby has joined the party’s Prahran and Brighton branches in registering displeasure that the national executive is circumventing a rank-and-file plebiscite. Particularly contentious is Erdogan’s record of criticism of Israel, a sore point in a region that encompasses Melbourne’s Jewish stronghold around Caulfield.
Pegasus @ #746 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 8:43 am
In other words Labor should help the coalition do things it wouldn’t naturally do or want to do or think of doing so the coalition can get the credit for doing them and Labor can occupy the opposition benches forever where it belongs.
Yeah, right.
C”t
Looked for it but I lost the reply in my twitter stream. Do you have it?
I would like to hear what Possum’s constructive suggestions are re what the Greens should do.
A consistent refrain around here from one or two individuals is wtte Labor isn’t in government, what do you expect it can do.
Apparently, this attitude doesn’t apply to the Greens party.
Who is the real Boris Johnson?
https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1147385363163467776
There exists a common assumption by the politically literate that the majority of voters have deep and meaningful relationship with their vote in an election, whether it be at a local, state or federal level. The voters do not.
Most voters would be unable to distinguish between ths political parties, their policies and their histories.
Most voters havd no real comprehension of the levels of government, and the levels of responsibilities of government nor do they care. It is the great disconnect.
The voters are tribal as in a state of origin match or a AFL Grand Final or a successful next champion at Wimbledon. They just want to be on the next winner.
The majority of voters believe house prices should go up because thats being a winner. John Howard recently stated as much.
The care factor for those without an owned house to call home is zero. The acquisition of more than one house is about bragging. The size of the house and its value is about bragging. The number of mod- cons you can fill up your house with is about bragging. The leased, mordern, fully imported SUV or 4 wheel drive is about bragging. All this makes the voters feel good.
The last election was about maintaining the feel good. Any political party, political policy, political leader or policy suggesting otherwise is treated with disdain and creates a reaction not dissimilar to a snake in ths laundry of a highly geared McMansion. Do McMansion even have laundries?
Environmental issues and a knowledge of them are good provided it doesn’t require a lifestyle change for me personally says the voter and any suggestion otherwise will be condemned together with the notion that house prices will fall.
The voters just don’t want to fall behind.
The voters gamble on poker machines, horses. casinos, shares, taxation, political parties and jobs.
So give us a PM devoid of loyalty, policies, enunciation, history, clarity or integrity and he’ll do. Its a gamble. I mean the bloke eats at McDonalds after a night on the piss.
Want ever happens, dont vote for anyone risking our gamble. Certainly not a Greenie or a Union thug or a do gooder, with some such idea that our gamble is at risk. (risk free gambling!)
So Qld vote for coal mines, inner city folk are green, farmers vote for water thieves, Melbournians vote to become bigger and more congested than Sydney, corporations are tax dodgers, politicians get cushy jobs after their career fades.
But whatever happens dont let anything happen which impacts on me the voter says the voter.
Everything will turn to goo if the advertising man and his band of merry rorters, spivs and shonks trip up and go belly up. The punters, (voters) will scream till Alan Jones votes Labor, the Pope becomes evangelical and Bob Katter gives up his hat.
But we, the politically aware, will continue to bash each other with words and wisdom but don’t upset the voters.
Just who is out of touch?
lizzie @ #752 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 8:55 am
I’ve just tried to do it too! Ditto. I’ll have another go after Insiders. 😀
Confessions @ #752 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 8:57 am
Has Boris been wearing pearls again..
Thanks BK for this morning’s Dawn Patrol.
and from
the BK Files —
He cages children, he holds a military parade, he muses about being president for life yet we fail to see him for what he is, writes Jonathan Freedland.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/05/donald-trump-dictator-not-enough-laugh
♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙♙
A good read and the comments section is interesting.
Foggy in Newcastle – currently 11℃ — top of 18℃ – ☮ ☕
#And you Greens, you need to shit or get off the pot. You either DO things, or you’re a political Instagram account.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, July 7, 2019 at 8:57 am
You really don’t understand nuance, do you?
When the Government has the numbers then it is irrelevant what Labor or the Greens do, neither can make a difference.
But there will be times when the Government doesn’t have the numbers locked in, then Labor and the Greens become relevant and can potential block or amend legislation.
So far this Parliament it’s been the former.
C@tmomma @ #737 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 8:09 am
More emoting…
Q. Who do you hate more – L/NP or Greens ?
I always look forward to BK’s news round up to start the morning. Thank you BK for your community service.
The next thing I look for is KayJay’s comment on BK’s work. Thank you KayJay.
‘Pegasus says:
Sunday, July 7, 2019 at 8:57 am
I would like to hear what Possum’s constructive suggestions are re what the Greens should do.’
#And you Greens, you need to shit or get off the pot. You either DO things, or you’re a political Instagram account.
Simples: Quit talking about what you are going to do. Quit criticizing others for what they do. Start doing real stuff. If you can’t do that after 27 years, STFU and FO.
And now – the following shows the dangers inherent in trying to evade or deny one’s due taxes.
In conclusion – let us now render a rousing tribute to mainstream Orstraya.
and so say all of us. ☕
Barney in Makassar @ #761 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 9:15 am
What kind of lazy rationale is that !
Just because Labor doesn’t have the numbers doesn’t mean they can lie back in the hammock and wave through legislation.
This government hates those who need its help most. Very unchristian.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/07/government-committed-to-brutal-plan-to-dock-welfare-for-non-payment-of-fines
Boerwar @ #764 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 9:23 am
Greens are out there speaking up for alternatives to Govt legislation while Labor has the sunnies on in the hammock, cocktail in one hand and the other hand waving through neo-con legislation.
Goll, a fairly bleak assessment because what is says in a nutshell, is that the Oz electorate keeps a second car in the garage (Labor in Opposition) just in case the first one goes wrong. Also, on the same basis, why they will vote for Labor at a State level in say Queensland and WA but not at the Federal level.
Put even more crudely, an opposition, according to the political saw, rarely wins from opposition and just has to wait it out until the punters switch kind of from Woolies to Coles. Very bleak indeed for the diehards to swallow here, if this is the case.
However, political dynamics tend to warp this……..the move to the right and left which is splintering not only the Labor PV but that of the Liberals too (evidence the Senate if nowhere else), the decline in actually tribal allegiances (Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat/Liberal losses in the inner cities) and the impatience of the electorate and a disinclination to vote for anything which does not give them something or threatens to take something away. This latter point you have addressed…………..No wonder Briefly is so upset after the effort he put in in the last campaign for Labor.
The point is that any mildly reformist opposition, regardless of its leader, can put forward a sensible and longer sighted policy but self-interest, greed, fear and smear is enough to kill all this off.
No wonder the more thoughtful side of politics is in a sombre mood at the moment……….
Malcolm Farr reckoned the Coalition’s celebrations over the passing of the tax bill was like a publican boasting about a packed house on a free beer night!
Pegasus
What could the Greens do?
Well, real environmental activism would be a good start – not tokenist driving holidays, but actual lobbying for environmental issues, consistently, across decades. Standing up and being counted.
For example, in the past, Greens have opposed (for various reasons) windfarms, gone missing in action when it came to issues such as cattle on the High Plains (and, presently, brumby culling), removal of willows from waterways, etc etc.
A serious Greens party would be putting pressure on governments of all persuasions to shut down brown coal. This would signal to those interested in action on climate change where the real problems lie.
A serious Green party would educate the electorate, taking a nuanced, responsible approach to environmental issues, rather than encouraging people to jump on populist bandwagons.
This would occasionally cost them votes, and perhaps seats in Parliament, but there are no jobs on a dead planet, so I would think that that would be a secondary concern.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, July 7, 2019 at 9:25 am
It’s called reality, something you don’t seem to be able to comprehend.
Tricot
Thanks for your thoughtful reply.
‘Greens are out there speaking up for alternatives to Govt legislation ..’
Jolly. But having to cover all aspects of all legislation when you’re a small party means filling your time unproductively. It’s impossible for half a dozen people to come up with workable alternatives across all aspects of government.
The Greens would be better to focus on environmental issues, know them thoroughly, and critique legislation from that perspective.
They are not going to be a party of government any time soon. They are foolish to try to be.
>A serious Greens party would be putting pressure on governments of all persuasions to shut down brown coal. This would signal to those interested in action on climate change where the real problems lie.
And what pressure would this take the form of?
Zoomster is correct, so I’ve concluded that the Greens and Labor are currently both shit, but that the Greens are more shit than Labor.
Brian_Boru
Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 9:20 am
Comment #762
You’re very kind. I find that BK’s trawl through the newspapers provides a good start to the day. BK avoids the likes of the following —
Which, if taken seriously, could lead to monumental distress and feelings of persecution. My contributions are mostly (being kind to myself) bullshit and not to be taken too seriously.
Over —-
zoomster @ #771 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 9:29 am
How quickly one forgets the world leading Clean Energy Package passed into law not so long ago.
Take the goggles off zoomster.
KayJay, re your bullshit comments, I agree. But such lovely whimsical bullshit, often with a parable like message. Keep up the bullshit.
‘And what pressure would this take the form of?’
Convoys. Picketing. Media stunts. Speeches in Parliament. Amendments to legislation. Organised boycotts. Endless, endless hammering of the issue in pressers and interviews. Petitions. Educating the public. Letters to the editor. Community forums…..
adrian @ #776 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 9:37 am
Straight out of Murdoch media…
Rex – a question was asked, I answered it.
It’s correct that they can’t change the numbers, or the passage of the legislation. But they can, and must, keep making the points they need to make, to the extent they can get the ear of the media. And that means being the song and dance men/women. Attention seeking. All the time.
And the current number, hat coat and tails, is that the Govt are shit at managing the economy, and the third tranch can’t be afforded, and services will be slashed, and basic services will suffer.
Not say it once. Over and Over. Like this damn post. Till it echoes in the chambers of the vacant minds.
‘BK says:
Sunday, July 7, 2019 at 9:29 am
Malcolm Farr reckoned the Coalition’s celebrations over the passing of the tax bill was like a publican boasting about a packed house on a free beer night!’
Mr Farr did a good job on Insiders.
zoomster @ #774 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 9:34 am
If you’re going to ignore their platform, then it’s a pointless debate in the true style of Trump.
ItzaDream @ #784 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 9:45 am
It’s one thing Abbott got right.
KayJay
Thank you so much
For being so touch(ed)
To reply
And I’ll stop
As I’m out of my league!
Too right Rex. He just want on and on and on and on ….
Rex
They should ignore their platform. The Greens should focus on what they’re supposed to be good at – the environment – and when they’re knocked that out the park, use those achievements to build the brand.
They’re built backwards, trying to start off as an alternative party of government rather than focusing on several important issues where they can make a difference, and working from there.
Thanks KayJay.
I loved Chris Merritt – Legal Affairs Editor.
Despite the uncertain legal situation, he has determined that Folau has been persecuted. 😆
So Insiders thinks Labor had an ugly week.
Lets face it, just relax and wait for Labor to do a Bradbury.
The coalition’s political dominance over the cream puffs in the Labor party at present at least means we don’t have a real contest so there’s nothing to get excited about.
Let it go.
One day will segue into the next the ship will sail on…
zoomster @ #790 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 9:51 am
Where do you think renewable energy is on their list of to do’s ..?
Mr Farr did a good job on Insiders.
____
Boerwar
He also put budget surpluses nicely into perspective.
In the teeth of all here who dislike Annabel, I think she made Insiders more enjoyable than usual. This does not mean she’s fluffy. Farr was very incisive. Karvelas not so dominant.
lizzie
Yes, one of Crabbe’s better efforts.
lizzie @ #795 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 9:57 am
She has been a good host who has kept the shows focus on political commentary rather than herself.
So that when things tank (worser) , and services are cut, they (the enemy) can’t pull the ‘well you, Labor, voted for it’ bull shit, in the face of Labor having said for the last however many years – we only voted for the immediate stages, the urgent need for relief where it was needed and the stimulus was urgent. We didn’t vote for the third tranch per se, but it was hitched to the wagon, and we said at the time, and have been saying ever since, the country couldnt afford it, services would be slashed, and here we are, and we told you so, we warned you, over and over and over.
Itza, thanks for the Monbiot link from yesterday.
Most interesting in a political, environmental and comparative historical property evolution sense.
https://youtu.be/ZHw8yiHD4Iw
Rex
I’m sure it’s high. But it’s a solution, not the problem, and they’re not making it clear what the problem/s are. You need to work from outlining the problem – climate change, and the impact of brown coal – and then offer the solutions.
Instead, the Greens do a dismissive ‘everyone knows what the problem is, here’s the solution’ without really bothering to explain either. It’s a ‘everyone understands this, we don’t need to bother explaining it’ attitude.
As someone who whinges all the time about Labor failing to sell messages, you can surely understand that the Greens are failing in this department.
Their JOB is the environment – THEY were the ones whom you’d expect would make every election all about climate change, instead of hovering around the edges of the issue and leaving the heavy lifting to others.
Itza
As I said yesterday, nuance doesn’t work atm. It’s dismissed as ‘trying to please everyone’ ‘failing to take a firm position’ ‘being wishy washy’ ‘inconsistent’ etc etc.
Pleasure S K. I’m a bit of a fan boy.