The Australian Electoral Commission quietly published the full distributions of lower house preferences earlier this week, shedding light on the election’s remaining known unknown: how close One Nation came to maybe pulling off a miracle in Hunter. Joel Fitzgibbon retained the seat for Labor with a margin of 2.98% over the Nationals, landing him on the wrong end of a 9.48% swing – the third biggest of the election after the central Queensland seats of Capricornia and Dawson, the politics of coal mining being the common thread between all three seats.
The wild card in the deck was that Hunter was also the seat where One Nation polled strongest, in what a dare say was a first for a non-Queensland seat – 21.59%, compared with 23.47% for the Nationals and 35.57% for Labor. That raised the question of how One Nation might have done in the final count if they emerged ahead of the Nationals on preferences. The answer is assuredly not-quite-well-enough, but we’ll never know for sure. As preferences from mostly left-leaning minor candidates were distributed, the gap between Nationals and One Nation barely moved, the Nationals gaining 4.81% to reach 28.28% at the final distribution, and One Nation gaining 4.79% to fall short with 26.38%. One Nation preferences then proceeded to flow to the Nationals with noteworthy force, with the final exclusion sending 19,120 votes (71.03%) to the Nationals and 28.97% to Labor.
Speaking of, the flow of minor party preferences between the Coalition and Labor is the one detail of the election result on which the AEC is still holding out. However, as a sequel to last week’s offering on Senate preferences, I offer the following comparison of flows in Queensland in 2016 and 2019. This is based on Senate ballot paper data, observing the number that placed one major party ahead of the either, or included neither major party in their preference order. In the case of the 2016 election, this is based on a sampling of one ballot paper in 50; the 2019 data is from the full set of results.
It has been widely noted that the Coalition enjoyed a greatly improved flow of One Nation preferences in the lower house, but the Senate results offer the interesting twist that Labor’s share hardly changed – evidently many One Nation voters who numbered neither major party in 2016 jumped off the fence and preferenced the Coalition this time. Also notable is that Labor received an even stronger share of Greens preferences than in 2016. If this was reflected nationally, it’s a phenomenon that has passed unnoticed, since the flow of One Nation and United Australia Party preferences was the larger and more telling story.
Other electorally relevant developments of the past week or so:
• Laura Jayes of Sky News raises the prospect of the Nationals asserting a claim to the Liberal Senate vacancy created by Arthur Sinodinos’s appointment to Washington. The Nationals lost one of their two New South Wales seats when Fiona Nash fell foul of Section 44 in late 2017, resulting in a recount that delivered to the Liberals a seat that would otherwise have been held by the Nationals until 2022. Since that is also when Sinodinos’s term expires, giving the Nationals the seat would restore an order in which the Nationals held two out of the five Coalition seats.
• Fresh from her win over Tony Abbott in Warringah, The Australian reported on Tuesday that Zali Steggall was refusing to deny suggestions she might be persuaded to join the Liberal Party, although she subsequently complained the paper had twisted her words. A report in The Age today notes both “allies and opponents” believe Steggall will struggle to win re-election as an independent with Abbott out of the picture, and gives cause to doubt she would survive a preselection challenge as a Liberal.
• Labor is undergoing a personnel change in the Victorian Legislative Council after the resignation of Philip Dalidakis, who led the party’s ticket for Southern Metropolitan region at both the 2014 and 2018 elections. Preserving the claim of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, the national executive is set to anoint Enver Erdogan, a workplace lawyer for Maurice Blackburn, former Moreland councillor and member of the Kurdish community. The Australian reports former Melbourne Ports MP Michael Danby has joined the party’s Prahran and Brighton branches in registering displeasure that the national executive is circumventing a rank-and-file plebiscite. Particularly contentious is Erdogan’s record of criticism of Israel, a sore point in a region that encompasses Melbourne’s Jewish stronghold around Caulfield.
I ignore the Greens these days for precisely this reason.
A Just Transition to an economy that does not rely on fossil fuels will not be achieved in the absence of broad electoral support. A precondition for such support would be the existence of a popular movement that aimed to achieve such a Transition – a movement that would be recognised by the nominally-Right as well as the self-styled Left.
Such a movement does not exist now and would therefore have to be built more or less from scratch. However, many recruits to such a movement could certainly be found. Furthermore, we know the deterioration in the environment will continue. As this occurs, new support will be forthcoming. This is as inevitable as climate change itself.
The economic and social consequences of climate change will go well-beyond partisan goals and imperatives. They will force a new social, economic and environmental settlement to be found. This is inescapable in a democracy. The settlement that served working people in the 20th century is in the process of being unravelled. The consequences will be highly repressive for the beneficiaries of that settlement – the working people of this country. Nevertheless, the consequences of environmental change will overtake us all. This is very obvious. This will involve working people whether they like it or not. It will involve business and corporations whether they like it or not. It will involve every element of the community and the economy.
A movement will be instigated. This is inevitable. There is a potential membership for such a movement, but there is no leadership for one at the moment. The Greens, who have alienated every possible ally, are incapable of providing such leadership. There is food for thought here…
sprocket
Possum continues his rant about Labor
You can be the self interested ‘leftish’ party of bullshit artists, by bullshit artists (of a vintage of bullshit artistry that’s 20 years out of date). Or you can pull the heads in of some of your dickheads and expand your horizons beyond “failure”
Spraying it in all directions, including at the Greens. How very constructive of him.
Peg
It is constructive of Possum to spray the Greens – maybe some of them will wake up to themselves?
Wishful thinking, I know.
Briefly will be at this all day every day until he exhausts William’s patience. This is inevitable.
It would be nice to know who Possum was talking about (and how many of them are elected). That Labor
outsourced its polling to such an extent seems horribly amateurish.
(incidentally, there does seem to be an implication that *the campaign* cost Labor four points)
Pegasus @ #704 Saturday, July 6th, 2019 – 9:50 pm
Well, it works at least as well as anything the Greens have been doing lately, doesn’t it?
At least Labor lost an election, and hopefully they will learn from that – i.e. that playing by the rules just doesn’t cut it anymore.
The Greens may as well not even have turned up last time, and may as well not bother turning up again next time. In fact, we’d all be a lot better off if they didn’t 🙁
sprocket
“It is constructive of Possum to spray the Greens – maybe some of them will wake up to themselves?
Wishful thinking, I know.”
It is constructive of Possum to spray Labor – maybe some of them will wake up to themselves?
Wishful thinking, I know.
While the ALP online stooges direct their anger at the Greens, the Liberals continue to rack up another 3 years of government.
Simon @ #707 Saturday, July 6th, 2019 – 9:58 pm
Possum was heavily involved from the union side in the successful campaign against Campbell Newman, in which they used highly sophisticated polling and statistical methods to fine tune the campaign every day.
He was horrified by the lack of professionalism and sophistication In the Federal campaign, including outsourcing the polling to Galaxy when the Labor movement has huge internal capability in this area.
Meanwhile the young libs continue their water dance with proto-fascism and its behavior models:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/young-liberal-charged-with-glassing-factional-opponent-20190706-p524so.html
nath, for some reason I was thinking of you and Lars when I was reading this. Can’t understand why.
“
By Farrah Tomazin and Yan Zhuang
July 6, 2019 — 6.50pm
A prominent young Liberal has been charged after allegedly glassing a factional rival in the head after a
Australian Liberal Students Federation past president Xavier Boffa is now facing calls for suspension from the party as a result of the stoush, which is the latest ugly episode to plague the Liberals’ youth movement.
The incident took place at the Elephant British Pub in Adelaide around midnight on Friday, when Mr Boffa became involved in a heated argument with Melbourne University Liberal Club member Benedict Kusay.
Mr Kusay’s allies say as the dispute escalated, Mr Boffa threw a glass into his head, resulting in the university student – a self-described “entrepreneur” who recently appeared in an article about the “Rich Kids of Instagram” – ending up in hospital overnight.
He was discharged early on Saturday morning, and photos obtained by The Sunday Age confirm he required three staples to his head as a result of his injuries.
Certainly a very liberal interpretation of glassing.
says:
Saturday, July 6, 2019 at 9:56 pm
Briefly will be at this all day every day until he exhausts William’s patience. This is inevitable.
Maybe. I’m trying to be constructive. I haven’t made any personal remarks and the subject is as political as anything could be.
It’s contemporary too. There is political action at the popular level. It is beyond electoral politics at the moment, which reflects the staleness of that domain. This is new and interesting and potentially powerful.
It certainly beats Rexicology and Studies in nath.
Barney in Makassar @ #714 Saturday, July 6th, 2019 – 10:30 pm
Nuke it from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure.
I thought ‘Politics as Performance Art’ when describing The Greens was pretty good but I’ll give Possum marks for ‘a political Instagram account’. 🙂
C@tmomma @ #717 Saturday, July 6th, 2019 – 9:44 pm
Why did you ignore this bit?
I found Possum’s reflections posted by Sprocket @9:25 PM interesting and thought-provoking.
Was Possum making those comments before the election or only after Labor lost?
Diogenes @1:41. I assumed that Possum’s comments were tweeted yesterday/today, although there is no visible time-stamp. There does seem to be an element of being wise after the event. Labor did run a terrible campaign. People here were expecting Labor / Shorten to pull a rabbit out of the hat in the last week of two, but no rabbit was forthcoming.
I found the bit about the crushed victories telling and depressing.
EDIT: they’ve also crushed superannuation, one of the Hawke-Keating victories, turning it into a tax dodge for high income earners.
WeWantPaul says:
Saturday, July 6, 2019 at 11:41 am
Look forward to an increase in the GST + austerity.
100% this is what I expect. Also Labor has pretty much wedged themselves so I expect they will support it
————————-
I see it differently, the ALP can now argue that since the government has delivered these tax cuts then the economy should be humming along with no need for any budget savings.
Nicholas
Whilst its true that government doesn’t need to conduct a bond auction but when it does, its doing so through Treasury, and as I’ve written before, a major buyer is other government or public sector agencies along with all other investors and there is no need to create a zero risk instrument when you already have the bond market.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s most definitely a slow Sunday today!
Jacqui Maley sings Lambie’s praise.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lambie-makes-good-on-her-vow-to-use-her-powers-for-good-20190705-p524gp.html
Here’s Peter FitzSimons’ weekly contribution.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/israel-folau-s-post-wasn-t-private-pm-it-was-provocative-20190705-p524l0.html
In this week’s column, John Wren discusses the ramifications of Liberal tax cuts on the Australian economy.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/wrens-week-a-closer-look-at-tax-cuts,12872
Labor can’t appear to ignore economic wellbeing over ideological values, writes David Hetherington.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/07/labor-cant-appear-to-ignore-economic-wellbeing-over-ideological-values
John Pesutto writes that there are contradictions inherent in the religious discrimination proposals.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/contradictions-inherent-in-religious-discrimination-proposals-20190705-p524jl.html
While our Government’s focus on religious freedom is a hot topic, it’s reminding many that religion is an outdated concept, including Noely Neate.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/religious-freedom-talibangelicals-have-jumped-the-shark,12871
Huge gaming profits versus a minuscule return to the community. Vaulting pay for their executives and billions for the NSW Government. These are the findings of the most in-depth investigation into top NSW club finances to date. They pay next to no tax either but many are on a pokies-fuelled spree empire-building. Michael West reports the first of a series of stories on the biggest community pokies dens in the world.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/pokie-profits-investigation-clubs-put-executive-pay-the-state-and-empire-building-before-community-service/
A prominent young Liberal has been charged after allegedly glassing a factional rival in the head after a Liberal students’ conference. That organisation DOES attract some lovely types!
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/young-liberal-charged-with-glassing-factional-opponent-20190706-p524so.html
Some earthquake problems in California.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jul/06/california-earthquake-latest-tremors-state-of-emergency
He cages children, he holds a military parade, he muses about being president for life yet we fail to see him for what he is, writes Jonathan Freedland.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/05/donald-trump-dictator-not-enough-laugh
Cartoon Corner
From Matt Golding.
Zanetti puts the boot into Albo.
Glen Le Lievre and the rage of the aged.
Andrew Dyson on the new tax scales.
A valid point from Alan Moir here.
From the US
Freedland’s summary of Trump’s behaviour is frightening and shows how quickly a society can be damaged by a determined megalomaniac. Are Australia’s leaders strong enough to stand up to him? Is Australia’s democracy strong enough to stand up to one of our own?
There’s never been a dictator that Drumpf doesn’t like.
lizzie @ #724 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 6:36 am
But Australia has provided a template for how to mistreat asylum seekers. What Freedland refers to has been the case here for six years.
Bellwether
Yes, we have our own little dictatorship here.
A political Instagram account. I love it! Thinking of that photo from the Senate of Janet Rice.
Dan Gulberry @ #717 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 1:07 am
Of course I read it. I didn’t have to comment on it. Now, if you want to spend another day putting the boot into Labor and kicking a dog when it’s down, go right ahead. I guess it makes YOU feel good, but I’m not going to take any part in it.
Or, you could do what Poss suggests and get active in the Labor Party and work to make it better.
But I’m guessing you’ll just keep kicking.
Confessions @ #728 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 7:37 am
And I bet that photo was sent out to every Greens member in the country. For the lols. 🙄
Linked on Twitter by a genuine Christian, Fr Rod Bower.
http://churchandstate.org.uk/2017/05/has-evangelical-christianity-become-sociopathic/
27 years summed up in two sentences:
‘And you Greens, you need to shit or get off the pot. You either DO things, or you’re a political Instagram account. ‘
Do genetics determine our political views? Probably more relevant in America where there are only binary choices when it comes to voting.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/our-politics-are-in-our-dna-thats-a-good-thing/2019/07/05/c4d8579e-984d-11e9-830a-21b9b36b64ad_story.html?utm_term=.1fe350df41ca
Fess
From that, one might deduce that those who limit their families for ideological reasons (the benefit of the environment) are ensuring their own political defeat.
Boerwar,
The Greens are only interested in one thing. Shitting on Labor from their lofty heights of political purity. With all the sanctimony, but now, outright abuse and hostility, if ICANCU’s contributions are anything to go by, that they can muster.
They can’t seem to see the wood for the trees, that abusing Labor constantly just does the Coalition’s work for them by proxy. Sadly, there soon will be no trees because, while The Greens keep abusing, or condescending, to Labor, the Coalition’s mates just carry on bulldozing them into the ground and digging up what’s underneath them, or planting more crops where the trees used to be.
And what do The Greens do? Go on another fol de rol to protest one and only one particular coal mine, while the Coalition are approving them everywhere else in the country without a protest peep from The Greens.
I would be said for The Greens declining effectiveness wrt the environment, if I wasn’t so angry at how their behaviour is just letting it die more quickly. It’s so counterproductive and they are just too arrogant to realise it.
Is Possum saying that the election campaign caused the ALP’s level of support to fall from 37 percent to 33 percent? What is he basing this on?
Nicholas says:
Sunday, July 7, 2019 at 8:12 am
An assumption that the opinion polls weren’t wrong¿ 😆
Yeah my understanding was that the published polls were consistently off from the start of the campaign right through to the end. So how would you know if the campaign caused the ALP to lose four points?
Re pokie machines:
http://www.pokiesplayyou.org.au/gamblingnews_26022019
Nicholas @ #737 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 8:12 am
The killer campaign run by Scrott.
Blind Freddie saw the result coming from the end of the first week.
Re pokie machines
https://www.smh.com.au/national/politicians-hit-gambling-donations-jackpot-as-pokie-contributions-soar-20190201-p50v2s.html
Diogenes @ #719 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 1:41 am
I saw a comment about the internal polling debacle when the news that they were using Galaxy came to light – so before the election. He didn’t play it up after that because he obviously didn’t want to do more damage to the Labor campaign.
His comment at the time indicated he was pretty horrified they were using such unsophisticated methods to track the canpaign
Possum’s comments re Greens and Labor were made yesterday:
You can be the self interested ‘leftish’ party of bullshit artists, by bullshit artists (of a vintage of bullshit artistry that’s 20 years out of date). Or you can pull the heads in of some of your dickheads and expand your horizons beyond “failure”
4:25 AM – 6 Jul 2019
https://twitter.com/Pollytics/status/1147466667695304704
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/07/labor-cant-appear-to-ignore-economic-wellbeing-over-ideological-values
LNG
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/07/fuelling-the-climate-crisis-why-lng-is-no-miracle-cure-for-australias-coal-addiction
lizzie @ #743 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 8:29 am
I saw that Tweet yesterday too. It received a considered reply. You haven’t thought it worthwhile to put that here as well? It just looks like being nasty for nasty’s sake otherwise.
Nicholas @ #739 Sunday, July 7th, 2019 – 8:23 am
Exactly.
Or you can believe mundo’s revisionism.
Or, self-serving revisionism in general.