The Australian Electoral Commission quietly published the full distributions of lower house preferences earlier this week, shedding light on the election’s remaining known unknown: how close One Nation came to maybe pulling off a miracle in Hunter. Joel Fitzgibbon retained the seat for Labor with a margin of 2.98% over the Nationals, landing him on the wrong end of a 9.48% swing – the third biggest of the election after the central Queensland seats of Capricornia and Dawson, the politics of coal mining being the common thread between all three seats.
The wild card in the deck was that Hunter was also the seat where One Nation polled strongest, in what a dare say was a first for a non-Queensland seat – 21.59%, compared with 23.47% for the Nationals and 35.57% for Labor. That raised the question of how One Nation might have done in the final count if they emerged ahead of the Nationals on preferences. The answer is assuredly not-quite-well-enough, but we’ll never know for sure. As preferences from mostly left-leaning minor candidates were distributed, the gap between Nationals and One Nation barely moved, the Nationals gaining 4.81% to reach 28.28% at the final distribution, and One Nation gaining 4.79% to fall short with 26.38%. One Nation preferences then proceeded to flow to the Nationals with noteworthy force, with the final exclusion sending 19,120 votes (71.03%) to the Nationals and 28.97% to Labor.
Speaking of, the flow of minor party preferences between the Coalition and Labor is the one detail of the election result on which the AEC is still holding out. However, as a sequel to last week’s offering on Senate preferences, I offer the following comparison of flows in Queensland in 2016 and 2019. This is based on Senate ballot paper data, observing the number that placed one major party ahead of the either, or included neither major party in their preference order. In the case of the 2016 election, this is based on a sampling of one ballot paper in 50; the 2019 data is from the full set of results.
It has been widely noted that the Coalition enjoyed a greatly improved flow of One Nation preferences in the lower house, but the Senate results offer the interesting twist that Labor’s share hardly changed – evidently many One Nation voters who numbered neither major party in 2016 jumped off the fence and preferenced the Coalition this time. Also notable is that Labor received an even stronger share of Greens preferences than in 2016. If this was reflected nationally, it’s a phenomenon that has passed unnoticed, since the flow of One Nation and United Australia Party preferences was the larger and more telling story.
Other electorally relevant developments of the past week or so:
• Laura Jayes of Sky News raises the prospect of the Nationals asserting a claim to the Liberal Senate vacancy created by Arthur Sinodinos’s appointment to Washington. The Nationals lost one of their two New South Wales seats when Fiona Nash fell foul of Section 44 in late 2017, resulting in a recount that delivered to the Liberals a seat that would otherwise have been held by the Nationals until 2022. Since that is also when Sinodinos’s term expires, giving the Nationals the seat would restore an order in which the Nationals held two out of the five Coalition seats.
• Fresh from her win over Tony Abbott in Warringah, The Australian reported on Tuesday that Zali Steggall was refusing to deny suggestions she might be persuaded to join the Liberal Party, although she subsequently complained the paper had twisted her words. A report in The Age today notes both “allies and opponents” believe Steggall will struggle to win re-election as an independent with Abbott out of the picture, and gives cause to doubt she would survive a preselection challenge as a Liberal.
• Labor is undergoing a personnel change in the Victorian Legislative Council after the resignation of Philip Dalidakis, who led the party’s ticket for Southern Metropolitan region at both the 2014 and 2018 elections. Preserving the claim of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, the national executive is set to anoint Enver Erdogan, a workplace lawyer for Maurice Blackburn, former Moreland councillor and member of the Kurdish community. The Australian reports former Melbourne Ports MP Michael Danby has joined the party’s Prahran and Brighton branches in registering displeasure that the national executive is circumventing a rank-and-file plebiscite. Particularly contentious is Erdogan’s record of criticism of Israel, a sore point in a region that encompasses Melbourne’s Jewish stronghold around Caulfield.
A well reasoned argument about what confronts us for the next 3 years..
“
Labor is the Opposition. They do not have the Power to implement their policies, strategies or ideas. The only party who can do that is the party of Government.
Labor does not have the numbers in either house to block any Bills or Legislation.
If Labor and the Greens join together, they do not have the numbers in either house to Block any Government Bills or Legislation. (So when the Greens tell you this. They are lying).
ALL Bills are written by the Government. ALL Bills debated and considered are written by the Government, unless the Government allows a Private Members Bill.
No Bills put before Parliament will be written by Labor, unless Labor secures passage to do so from the Government or via the Senate.
The content of the Bills by the Government are the Bills that need to be debated, and they are not based on the ideological position of the Labor Party; even if they pass with amendments. The amendments are from the ideological position of the Labor party only.
The Lower house holds no power for the Left. To hold power bills must be passed and progressed to the Upper House for Debate. This is the only house where a small amount of power, may be held under the right conditions and strategy for the left.
When the Greens make an amendment or put forward a motion and Labor does not support it; history almost always shows that this is not because Labor is against the “idea” per se; but because of a variety of reasons, including raising the motion in the wrong Bill, or using the wrong procedure in the Senate etc., This is an often used tactic by the Greens (power construct again here folks!) to position themselves as the Left Power. However, if you boil it down, they really are just treating us like idiots, because they know only the nerdy political freaks read the daily Senate Journals.”
https://polyfeministix.wordpress.com/2019/07/05/choose-or-the-left-may-die/
That land identified for planting in that study includes land that we have only just cleared for grazing as well as land that has been cleared for a century and a half.
Under current conditions, most farmers are not going to voluntarily stop grazing so that trees can start sequestering carbon.
Newstart is not a palatable alternative.
Meanwhile in South Australia which has had a container deposit scheme for decades…
South Australia to become first state to ban plastic items including straws, Government says
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-06/south-australia-plan-to-ban-single-use-plastic-items/11284916
And it’s happening under a Liberal government.
Sure, there are far more important environmental issues needing action but at least this is a positive small step.
Meanwhile in Queensland under a Labor government, and at a federal level, every party except the Greens Party are on a unity ticket supporting the Carmichael mine and opening up the Galilee Basin.
‘sprocket_ says:
Saturday, July 6, 2019 at 6:20 pm
A well reasoned argument about what confronts us for the next 3 years..’
For the next 27 years, I imagine.
My policy committee looked at a container scheme for Victoria decades ago. We approached the topic very positively, but the expert advice was convincingly against it. Alas, it’s so long ago I forget what the expert advice was!
‘ Pegasus says:
Saturday, July 6, 2019 at 6:23 pm
Meanwhile in Queensland under a Labor government, and at a federal level, every party except the Greens Party are on a unity ticket supporting the Carmichael mine and opening up the Galilee Basin.’
Yep. After 27 years the Greens are still 100% useless.
…I would also suggest that Labor not doing something the Greens want to happen might not be out of a simple desire to flout the Greens. As I’ve said so often, I can’t remember the Greens every being used as either a pro or con when discussing policy issues. Good policy either stacks up or it doesn’t.
“””If you mean the Greens (which is actually not all that clear, since they are no longer a “party of the environment”) then the answer is “Nothing”. As usual.
The Greens apparently expect to ride into power on a rising tide of environmental concern. They don’t expect to ever have to actually do anything to achieve that. It’s just “the vibe”, you know?
But Australian’s continually demonstrate that they don’t (in general, and with some notable exceptions) give a crap about the environment. Their own, or anyone else’s. “”””
Unfortunately the greens under RDN are more obsessed about dragging votes from labor than the environment.
The result was a suprise to many including business who were backing more action on the environment.
But aussies in general do care and will take action on the environment, the action on wind and solar farms and other green alternatives by labor governments shows this as does participation in recycling and clean up events.
Its hard though to vote against your own interests in areas where new jobs from coal mines are promised and you have people like RDN on $300 k a year offering no sympathy, at least the libs don’t do walrus tears.
Its also hard to cope with negative equity and a mortgage as as areas of Qld were doing and RDN says think of the greater interests whilst he owns his own properties.
Its hard to vote against tax cuts that will give you more money in your pocket whilst RDN employs backpackers on $3.50 an hour and fails to make a submission to Fair Pay.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/election-2016-greens-leader-richard-di-natale-fails-to-declare-home-pays-au-pairs-low-wage-20160519-goywxq.html
All in all it was perhaps a surprisingly not too bad result for labor considering the people and forces aligned against them.
RDN did them real damage with his criticism of their policies as being same same as libs, but worse was his pledge to vote against them if they did not do what he said.
I don’t think you will get much of a move to the left until the greens get rid of RDN.
Pegasus @ #650 Saturday, July 6th, 2019 – 6:14 pm
I don’t know about other states, but in NSW the government makes an absolute motza on the recycling scheme, because most NSW people don’t bother reclaiming the 10c deposit.
How do I know? Well, remember that we run an eco-retreat, where you would think our guests would be slightly more ecologically aware than average, and would either return their “10c deposit” containers themselves, or at least recycle them through our recycling bins, which we encourage all our guests to do.
Nup. I am constantly retrieving deposited containers from the “general waste” bins 🙁
Based on our experience, only a small percentage of recycleable containers – even those with the 10c deposit – are ever recycled.
Victoria is just throwing money away by not joining in this lucrative scam!
The Coalition and Labor on a unity ticket…
Why isn’t Victoria on the Container Deposit Scheme bandwagon?
24 April 2019: https://www.containerdepositsystems.com.au/articles/victoria-container-deposit-scheme
Pegasus @ #649 Saturday, July 6th, 2019 – 6:14 pm
Andrews has campaigned and won on a fairly strong renewable energy platform which has contented a lot of environmentalists. The transition away from brown coal is steadily progressing.
The social policy agenda has also contented many leftists with reforms re domestic violence, euthanasia, to name a few.
There are areas of concern I don’t deny – deforestation, pill testing….
…but the progressive minded in Victoria seem to be contented enough with his Premiership.
Boerwar @ #653 Saturday, July 6th, 2019 – 6:25 pm
It’s ok, the Greens and others will take up Opposition to the Govt while Labor withers and dies under the generalship of the Labor right.
Boerwar
Heard a guy from Men of the Trees a decade or so back talking about planting trees to sequester carbon. He said the fatal flaw is that a mater of soil,rainfall and landscape made the only really suitable places covered most of our best agricultural land.
https://theconversation.com/the-detective-work-behind-the-budj-bim-eel-traps-world-heritage-bid-71800
The Andrews government is also spending far too much on major road projects (Westgate Tunnel, North-East Link, etc) and only meagre increases to Melbourne`s rail and tram services and the suburban rail service increases that are happening are almost all linked to infrastructure, ignoring the significant about of patronage increase available at lower cost through increasing peak-shoulder, off-peak evening and weekend services.
Another flaw. Our country brethren hate trees.
Jeepers, the nihilistic attitude of some here towards Labor is astounding. Do you really think the party which has been a fact of life since late in the 19 Century and still represents the best interests of the underdog in Oz, is going to fold its tent and walk away from all this?
How to get back those who think that being a working class Tory is their road to salvation have yet to be tested. Already there are yelps of pain that the promise of the $1000 plus tax cut is a chimera for them.
Let’s just wait and see what Miracle Man, in cahoots with his Pentecostal deity, can really do when the chips are down…………………
To quote from somewhere I read, “Ye of Little Faith”………………..
Both the Coalition and Labor in Victoria are on a unity ticket to not support the creation of the Great Forest National Park:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/01/melbournes-water-supply-at-risk-due-to-collapse-of-forests-caused-by-logging
Crabb still in the chair tomorrow.
‘poroti says:
Saturday, July 6, 2019 at 6:42 pm
Boerwar
Heard a guy from Men of the Trees a decade or so back talking about planting trees to sequester carbon. He said the fatal flaw is that a mater of soil,rainfall and landscape made the only really suitable places covered most of our best agricultural land.’
Exactly.
The Greens are so useless that in 27 years they have yet to declare a single national park.
Not one.
Pathetic.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, July 6, 2019 at 6:22 pm
That land identified for planting in that study includes land that we have only just cleared for grazing as well as land that has been cleared for a century and a half.
Under current conditions, most farmers are not going to voluntarily stop grazing so that trees can start sequestering carbon.
_________________
Well the biggest landowner in the UK, a Danish billionaire is planting hundreds of millions of trees, particularly in the Scottish Highlands and taking land that was used for sheep and deer stalking into reforestation.
It really is amazing how many here seem to think the votes Labor needs to form Government are to be found on the left!
Watching the ABC News announcement on Budj Bim – and there I was -for fully half a second! The clip was from 2016!
Nothing has changed the Green and Liberal campaign machine campaigning against Labor.
Tom the first and best says:
Saturday, July 6, 2019 at 6:49 pm
The Andrews government is also spending far too much on major road projects (Westgate Tunnel, North-East Link, etc) and only meagre increases to Melbourne`s rail and tram services and the suburban rail service increases that are happening are almost all linked to infrastructure, ignoring the significant about of patronage increase available at lower cost through increasing peak-shoulder, off-peak evening and weekend services.
Clearly you have no idea how much is being spent on the rail system. Let me guess, another Green party member looking for a point to attack labor on. Facts don’t matter so I assume it is a waste of time listing the projects.
briefly says:
Saturday, July 6, 2019 at 3:16 pm
Rex is a Lib….very little point in engaging with them
True, just another member of the Green/Liberal campaign machine; he works in a Liberal senators office; while the Green party members don’t.
Same shit different keyboard.
If I were living in LA, SF, SD I’d move to safer ground:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/7-1-magnitude-quake-hits-southern-california-20190706-p524rh.html
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #672 Saturday, July 6th, 2019 – 7:21 pm
Keep pushing for more tax cuts
Keep backing in Duttons offshore torture
Keep ignoring the starving and destitute on Newstart
Keep backing in the thermal coal lovers.
It’s going oh so well….
Millions of trees sound good but the thing being ignored by the Greens is scale.
This is not surprising because the Greens have not implemented a single program in 27 years.
They do not know how to do real things.
Bark beetles alone are killing millions of hectare of trees.
Globally, land clearing is affecting more millions of hectares.
A reasonable estimate would be around 500 trees per hectare.
So bark beetles and clearing have killed and are killing billions of trees.
Planting trees one at a time is a sick joke when it comes to stopping climate change.
In 27 years the Greens have failed to raise Newstart by one cent.
How useless is that?
In 27 years the Greens have not recycled a single can. Not one.
How useless are the Greens?
frednk @ #676 Saturday, July 6th, 2019 – 7:36 pm
Vic Labor have committed significantly to upgrading the long neglected rail network. Vastly improved from 20 yrs ago.
Re roads – all upgrades much needed but I’would’ve preferred the state paid for the road upgrades and tolled them themselves.
Good god. Are Greens PBers suggesting tree planting should replace market mechanisms in the economy, together with technological innovation and transformation as strategies to reduce our GHGEs?
‘Melbourne’s water supply is at risk because decades of logging and forest loss from large bushfires has triggered the imminent collapse of the mountain ash forests in Victoria’s central highlands, ecologists have said.’
In which case, they’re talking bollocks. Melbourne’s catchments are highly protected.
I’ve looked at this before, and it boils down to a miniscule portion of state forest on the fringe of the Thompson catchment which theoretically could be logged (because it’s not national park) if it wasn’t actually protected by legislation.
Confession, the Liberal/Green campaign machine has campaigned against a market based system to price carbon for a decade; they have won. All that is left is a few trees.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, July 6, 2019 at 7:43 pm
Labor was advocating for fewer tax cuts.
Labor was part of the Medivac legislation.
Are you upset about the failure of the Greens stunt.
Labor is not the Government and so their plans to review the welfare system will not happen.
If a mine meets the requirements placed by Governments it should be allowed to proceed.
That’s what happens when WE elect a Coalition Government, but maybe the mathematics of fuckwittery doesn’t allow you to see that.
zoomster
Pegasus’s goal is to attack Labor, facts; good policy does not enter into it. A little Green pony helping his mate the Liberal horse.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, July 6, 2019 at 7:47 pm
In 27 years the Greens have not recycled a single can. Not one.
How useless are the Greens?
____________________________________
Did Bluey tell you that in the bath tonight?
Monboit (May 2018) on land clearing, degradation, and rewilding.
He is very lucid. The main finger pointing (in the UK) is at the grazing industry, and the evolving patterns of concentrated land ownership. Parallels here are pertinent.
80 minute video; 45 minute lecture. The first 15 minutes will suffice if time poor.
(I think I’ve posted this before; reposted without apology)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHw8yiHD4Iw
frednk @ #686 Saturday, July 6th, 2019 – 7:57 pm
The Clean Energy Package laws not good enough for you ..?
I think it’s clear you’re in silly Trump mode now so I’ll let you be…
Great Forest National Park:
https://vnpa.org.au/future-parks/great-forest-national-park/
“A science-based proposal for a Great Forest National Park has been developed by VNPA and other conservation groups. It would see 355,000 hectares of protected forests added to the existing 170,000 hectares of protected areas in Victoria’s Central Highlands.
Globally renowned naturalists like Sir David Attenborough and Dr Jane Goodall, along with 30 international, national, local environment, recreation and scientific groups, are supporting the creation of the Great Forest National Park. There is also widespread support among the Victorian community.
Now is the time to create a new Great Forest National Park.”
But this is a teensy prediction, and I reckon it’s safe enough. Given Labor has embarked on a strategic retreat from the battle of ideas while it works out where to position itself for 2022, Morrison and the Coalition will find themselves centre stage, in a spotlight, holding a microphone on improv night, having to provide an answer to the question that circulated round the opening of the 46th session: well guys, what now?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/05/governments-empty-agenda-has-been-hidden-in-plain-sight-but-reserve-bank-has-made-it-clear-its-time-to-act
The Greens of cause can be no help, their fair is wedging Labor, actual policy ideas; fair go mate, that is not our job.
Pegasus
Basically they want to convert state forests into national parks.
Ok now where does our wood come from?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/07/05/preferences-and-preselections/comment-page-14/#comment-3214981
The Andrews government`s spending on rail infrastructure is indeed high, and mostly well spent, with plenty of new trains on the way as well. However, infrastructure and trains are only half of the picture with the rail network. The other half is services, which the government controls, where the government has been very stingy and seems to see them only as a way of selling infrastructure projects and ignores almost all opportunities to increase services where they do not require infrastructure. This is an area I know a lot about.
I haven’t been here much lately but gee wiz REMINDER the Libs have a 1 seat, ONE SEAT majority folks, who knows what will happen. And again it was Mrs (sorry) Palmer’s and ON preferences mostly QLD that got them home. History folks tends to repeat – one term too many eg 1993, 2007. But have to agree Albo has been shit so far and reminiscent of Beasley era circa 2001.
Tom the first and best
I use the system and basically I am impressed. You need more train and rail to meet the peak demand. That is what they are doing.
Off peak there is enough trains and no passengers.
Cheaper fairs? It is already a bargain. My view is they should increase the peak fairs by 20%.
Last week the train was replaced by buses as the Ballarat line is getting a solid upgrade. Boy was that painful. What normally takes 45 minutes took 2.5 hours. The freeways are fucked (to use a little known engineering term).
The only solution to this is trains. The Andrews government seems to have worked that out.
Terminator
Fair assessment.
Cheers
Possum providing some analysis