I had a paywalled article in Crikey on the conclusion of the Senate election result, which among other things had this to say:
The Coalition went into the election with 31 senators out of 76 and comes out with 35 — and may be about to go one better if there is anything behind suggestions that Cory Bernardi is set to rejoin the Liberal Party. That would leave the government needing the support of only three crossbenchers to win contested votes.
That could be achieved with the two votes of the Centre Alliance plus that of Jacqui Lambie, who is newly restored to the Senate after falling victim to the Section 44 imbroglio in late 2017. Lambie appears to be co-operating closely with the Centre Alliance, having long enjoyed a warm relationship with the party’s founder Nick Xenophon.
Such a voting bloc would relieve the Morrison government of the need to dirty its hands in dealing with One Nation — though it could certainly do that any time the Centre Alliance members felt inspired to take liberal positions on such issues as asylum seekers and expansion of the national security state.
Since then, talk of Cory Bernardi rejoining the Liberal Party has moved on to suggestions he will leave parliament altogether, creating a casual vacancy that would stand to be filled by the Liberal Party. Bernardi announced he would deregister his Australian Conservatives party on Thursday following its failure to make an impression at the election, and told Sky News the next day that it “might be best for me to leave parliament in the next six months”, although he also said he was “unresolved”. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that sources on both sides of the SA Liberal Party’s factional divide say the front-runner would be Georgina Downer, daughter of the former Foreign Minister and twice-unsuccessful lower house candidate for Mayo. The party’s Senate tickets usually pair moderate and Right faction members in the top two positions, and Downer would take a place for the Right that was filled in 2016 by Bernardi, with the other incumbent up for re-election in 2022 being moderate-aligned Simon Birmingham.
In other news, Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo of the University of Sydney have posted slides from a detailed conference presentation on the great opinion poll failure. Once you get past the technical detail on the first few slides, this shows trend measures that attempt to ascertain the true underlying position throughout the parliamentary term, based on both polling and the actual results from both 2016 and 2019. This suggests the Coalition had its nose in front in Malcolm Turnbull’s last months, and that Labor only led by around 51-49 after he was dumped. An improving trend for the Coalition began in December and accelerated during the April-May campaign period. Also included is an analysis of pollster herding effects, which were particularly pronounced for the Coalition primary vote during the campaign period. Labor and Greens primary vote readings were more dispersed, in large part due to Ipsos’s pecularity of having low primary votes for Labor (accurately, as it turned out) and high ones for the Greens (rather less so).
I’d really like to know what clem attlee thinks of the truly uncharismatic female Premier of NSW, Gladys Berejiklian. Or is he just another drive-by slagger of Labor and a *cricket* when it comes to the obvious deficiencies, which don’t seem to have made a difference to the electorate btw, of the Liberal Party. He might like to reflect on that.
lizzie @ #1300 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 6:36 am
Scott Morrison wants to be ‘Deputy Sheriff’ to the USA, just like his hero and role model, John Howard. He also thinks it’s good for business.
How dare you say I’m deranged, says the deranged one, throwing a Twitter tantrum. Diplomats must be in despair.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2019/06/26/trump-threatens-iran-obliteration/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020190626
It is rare that Gillian Trigg and I agree on something but her opinion on the Folau situation as detailed in her discussion on Radio National Drive with Karvelas almost exactly aligns with mine. The High Court will make a ruling on whether or not the ARU as an employer can restrict an employee‘s right to express a religious viewpoint.
test
So Folau has a million dollars to cause pain and suffering. Should be whole bunch of headlines and click bait coming to a site near you. I think we just have to accept it, the world has gone mad.
@lizzie
They are using the Apple excuse.
Defective Apple products ONLY EFFECT A SMALL AMOUNT OF CUSTOMERS.
Hi, Don. 🙂
Bucephalus
“Religion” is not a word that give you the right to denigrate others.
lizzie @ #1309 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 7:10 am
Hi Lizzie!
That post was not supposed to happen..
don @ #1306 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 7:07 am
Me too mon ami.😲☕
How dare you say I’m deranged, says the deranged one, throwing a Twitter tantrum.
This immediately comes to mind:
I wonder if Trump realises that Iran has hundreds of thousands of soldiers willing to go into battle with America and die for their country? Iran can also wreak untold chaos in the Middle East and cause untold numbers of casualties of any Americans sent to fight and die there.
It must have sounded so great in the Trump 2020 campaign room…start a war with Iran, win in 2020 bigly.
Nope.
Talking of bending the knee to USA:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/canberra-open-to-joining-international-effort-against-iran-20190625-p5213j.html
Apartment Owners worried:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-25/apartment-owners-worried-they-are-living-in-structurally-unsound/11246116?pfmredir=sm
“7.30 has spoken to owners around Australia who are worried they are living in structurally unsound buildings, with little choice but to pay for the defects themselves.”
“John Grant purchased an off-the-plan investment property in Canberra for $640,000 in 2011. But soon afterwards cracks began to spread throughout the apartment car park.”
Well you voted for less regulation you get what you pay for…
QE is useless because all it does is swap one asset for another. The non-government sector gives up bonds and the central bank hands over reserves in exchange. The net financial position of the non-government sector does not change at all. Only the composition of the portfolio changes.
The reason why central banks have dedicated so much attention to QE is that governments refuse to do what is desperately needed: sustained fiscal expansion to achieve full employment and deliver improved public services and infrastructure. So central banks have to manipulate levers that don’t really do anything.
A quick comment on whether Labor should still demand a review of Newstart and other social services.
I note that soon the after the election, Casandra Goldie, of ACOSS, was quick to say that she
welcomed the continuation of the reign of our insect overlordswas looking forward to working with the newly elected Coalition government to fight for better income and services to Australia’s most marginalised.If Labor comes in making. a lot of noise now, it will just harden the Coalition’s determination to object to any rise in Newstart etc., saying that there are plenty of jobs on our strong economy.
I think for the moment, Labor should just STFU. They lost the election, they need to work out why, but the media keeps on insisting that the story is all about Labor. As in asking them why they are not going to pursue in opposition the same things as they would have in government. This is taking the focus off the government that the Australian people actually elected.
As for Labor holding the Government to account, we need legislation before parliament before this will cut through to the voting public.
Douglas and Milko @ #1318 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 5:33 am
What difference does it make when the only information the voting public are ever going to get is from sources that will deliberately stay focused on Labor and completely ignore the government no matter what they do.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
David Crowe outlines how the chiefs of out three biggest news organisations will today at the NPC demand new laws to protect journalists from police raids/
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/decriminalising-journalism-media-chiefs-demand-new-laws-to-protect-journalists-from-police-raids-20190625-p5216n.html
And lawyer Lou Dargan says that Australia’s dangerous and undemocratic reworked espionage laws criminalise dissent.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/dangerous-and-undemocratic-reworked-espionage-laws-criminalise-dissent-20190625-p5210n.html
Ross Gittins explains how retail prices have not at all been rising.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/everything-many-of-us-think-about-rising-retail-prices-and-profits-is-wrong-20190625-p52123.html
Karma! Just karma! The Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission has been asked to investigate the Australian Christian Lobby over its role in helping Israel Folau raise more than a million dollars for his legal fight against Rugby Australia.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-union/charity-watchdog-could-investigate-australian-christian-lobby-over-folau-fundraiser-20190625-p5217h.html
According to David Crowe Morrison will set out a more assertive Australian stance on the growing trade war between China and the United States in a new warning about the threat of “coercive power” that damages the global economy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-toughens-stance-on-china-us-over-collateral-damage-on-trade-20190625-p5217n.html
Eryk Bagshaw reports that Labor has flagged the possibility of rolling back $42 billion in already-legislated tax cuts and reintroducing another income tax bracket if it wins the next election, as the party grapples with internal dissent over its tax policy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-opens-door-to-rolling-back-tax-cuts-amid-internal-dissent-20190625-p5214y.html
Richard Dennis explains why cutting taxes instead of raising spending is exactly what a softening economy does NOT need.
https://www.outline.com/BwYWwj
And a former Head of Finance Michael Keating debunks an SMH article that suggests the Morrison Government’s $158 billion tax plan must be passed in full to benefit workers.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/lies-damned-lies-and-tax-cuts-statistics,12835
More from Crowe as he looks at how Morrison and his colleagues cannot stop the next cycle of recriminations over the leadership spill that brought their government to a standstill 10 months ago. He points to the diametrically opposed versions of events stated by Morrison and Dutton over the deputy leadership position.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/two-versions-of-the-same-conversation-but-only-one-man-is-telling-the-truth-20190625-p520xm.html
Here is what Sam Maiden has to say after the first Bad Blood program on Sky News.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/06/25/scott-morrison-malcolm-turnbull-bad-blood/
Michael West lists a whole raft of measures that show how the economy is heading south.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/mw30-an-election-shakeup-as-economic-clouds-gather/
Kristina Keneally excoriates Dutton in this op-ed.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/jun/25/peter-dutton-has-manipulated-the-truth-so-much-how-can-australians-trust-him
Michaela Whitbourn tells us that the personal use and possession of ice and other illicit drugs would be decriminalised in NSW under a public health-driven plan backed by the Bar Association and other top lawyers.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/push-to-decriminalise-ice-use-as-bar-backs-public-health-approach-20190625-p5212c.html
Jenna Price says that it’s time courts came to grip with the use of technology to inflict domestic violence.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/violence-that-leaves-no-visible-mark-is-a-real-threat-to-women-20190624-p520p5.html
Jennifer Duke writes that Huawei is set to push Communications Minister Paul Fletcher to overturn the government’s 5G ban on the company.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/huawei-to-push-communications-minister-paul-fletcher-to-overturn-5g-ban-20190625-p52116.html
Meanwhile John Setka could be forced to submit to an internal CFMMEU inquiry after he faces court today, while fighting off Labor leader Anthony Albanese’s plan to have him expelled from the party.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/john-setka-could-face-cfmmeu-probe-after-his-day-in-court-20190625-p520zp.html
Christopher Knaus writes that a whistleblower has accused the government of flagrantly breaching laws to thwart the release of politically-sensitive documents, including records of the former prime minister Tony Abbott’s taxpayer-funded entitlements.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/26/whistleblower-hits-out-at-pms-department-over-pervasive-and-toxic-disregard-for-law
Kate Aubusson reports that junior doctors have removed from a fourth hospital in NSW by a peak medical college over concerns of their welfare. What is happening in NSW Health?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/trainee-doctors-removed-from-fourth-hospital-over-welfare-concerns-20190625-p5211h.html
Arnold Zable, a Melbourne refugee advocate, writes that the time has come for an amnesty for those suffering on Manus and Nauru.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/time-has-come-for-an-amnesty-for-those-suffering-on-manus-and-nauru-20190624-p520q9.html
Not a bad effort here from SpaceX as it put 24 articles into orbit overnight.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/spacex-launches-a-middle-of-the-night-rideshare-of-24-satellites-20190626-p5219v.html
Clancy Yeates says that after a decade or so of weaker performance than some other big markets, Australia’s share market may finally be throwing off its mantle as a bit of a global laggard.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/is-aussie-share-market-underperformance-nearing-an-end-20190621-p5203j.html
A scramble by banks for consultants to help compensate customers in the wake of the banking royal commission has helped Deloitte post record revenue of $2.3 billion, up 13 per cent for the year.
https://www.outline.com/VRdRyR
Richard Denniss says that modern conservatives don’t fear social change, they just oppose it when it undermines their friends. Ouch!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/26/modern-conservatives-dont-fear-social-change-they-just-oppose-it-when-it-undermines-their-friends
Richard Wolffe writes, “The Saudis are good customers, Trump says – which evidently outweighs the fact they murdered and carved up a Washington Post journalist”.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/25/trump-saudi-arabia-toadyism-richard-wolffe
Law lecturer Michael Duglas writes that when you go online and write something nasty about a person, or even a small business, you risk being sued for defamation.
https://theconversation.com/can-you-be-liable-for-defamation-for-what-other-people-write-on-your-facebook-page-australian-court-says-maybe-119352
Stephen Bartholomeusz explains how the US Fed is holding its nerve against Trump’s impetuous Twitter tirades.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/stubborn-child-trump-slams-fed-again-but-powell-urged-to-hold-his-nerve-20190625-p52106.html
In the last few years, Western Australia’s eviction toll has increased but the political will to support the vulnerable, to keep families housed, is lacking.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/governments-must-address-homelessness-as-suicide-risk-also-rises,12836
A Sydney mayor insists there is no “cover up” from his council over Mascot Towers, after it was revealed engineers are still waiting on paperwork that may help them pinpoint the cause and prevent further damage.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/25/mascot-towers-moving-in-a-downward-motion-building-engineer-says
Yet another stuff up from Human Services.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6239089/human-services-glitch-hits-pockets-of-childcare-providers/?cs=14225
US presidential hopeful Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) has ignited a firestorm by comparing the migrant detention facilities on the Southern border to concentration camps. Critical thinker John Turnbull takes a look at the history of these insidious institutions and asks whether AOC might be A-OK?
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/think-for-yourself-concentration-camps,12837
Cartoon Corner
Cathy Wilcox gets is with the tax cuts.
And so does Fiona Katauskas!
David Pope is still giving Morrison curry over his lack of a legislative agenda.
David Rowe returns to the Oval Office.
From Matt Golding.
Upstairs with Michael Leunig.
Peter Broelman goes crowdfunding for Christians.
And some Broelman catch up as he comes out of Twitter hiding.
Another rather weak effort from Zanetti.
Jon Kudelka with the tax bill negotiations.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/30771cda4d1d010751660a79c08fba04?width=1024
From the US
Dan G
I kind of agree with you, but Cassandra Goldie of ACOSS has a very different opinion. And she, I think, is the best placed person to get concessions from our current Coalition government.
An interesting tidbit: Both Father Bob McGuire (who works tirelessly to help the homeless and those on Newstart), and Egg Boy (nuff said), were at the ALP do on election night, with Shorten. A sad night for many of us.
They have both kept pretty quiet since then, as they know that having any obvious association with the ALP will rule them out from any help or concessions for the things they care about from our current Federal Govt. Sad that it is that political, but it is.
Actually, should we just send an email and ask Cassandra Goldie what she wants the ALP to do?
Douglas and Milko @ #1322 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 5:54 am
My point was that because we have such a biased media in this country the voting public are never going to get any information on what the government’s doing. The focus is always going to be on Labor.
Cassandra Goldie is doing an excellent job in the circumstances, however she has had little or no success in the last 6 years, so I doubt she’ll have any more in the next 3. This is not her fault, she’s just up against a government with a completely opposite agenda to hers, ie enriching the already rich and punishing everyone who isn’t already rich.
Thank you, BK. A wonderful resource, as ever!
So, just to show what a smart guy he is, Morrison criticizes ‘coercive power’ in the context of China and announces that he is open to employing coercive power against Iran.
How good is that?
The Wroe article, BTW, is a-historical. It fails to mention that Trump unilaterally broke the Iran Nuclear Agreement and then employed punishing sanctions.
Meanwhile, the full force of Democracy Busters R Us will be deployed to punish a whistleblower who criticized the general contempt for the law within Prime Minister and Cabinet.
Corruption?
Not a problem!
Morning all, and thanks BK. Karma indeed for the ACL.
I’d also love to know how they get charity status when they don’t do any charity work for the community.
Confessions @ #1326 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 6:14 am
How does the IPA have charity status when they do even less charitable works than the ACL?
Morning all
The crisis with the apartments in NSW having structural issues together with the dangerous cladding on buildings throughout the country, is instructive of where we are as a country right about now.
It ain’t good
Since we’re all searching our motivations and beliefs now, I wonder, am I suffering from wealth envy or is Folau just a selfish, greedy dork?
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-union/charity-watchdog-could-investigate-australian-christian-lobby-over-folau-fundraiser-20190625-p5217h.html
Meanwhile in Victoria, the state govt have been working on a strategy for rectification works ie removal of dangerous cladding.
It is going to be a huge and costly task that is going to take years to sort out.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/we-wanted-to-dry-the-nazis-out-german-locals-hoard-town-s-beer-ahead-of-far-right-festival
“Locals in the German town of Ostritz have purchased the town’s entire beer supply ahead of an annual far-right music festival, leaving neo-Nazi attendees with nothing to drink.”
“A court in the state’s capital Dresden had already imposed a ban on the sale of alcohol and possession of alcohol at the event in an attempt to prevent violent incidents.”
“Saxony police revealed they confiscated more than 4000 liters of beer from those attending the event.“
My kind of town.
From one of BK’s links the epitome of a backpfeifengesicht .
Lizzie
Easy answer. Folau is a selfish greedy dork. Nothing Christlike about him.
Dan Gulberry @ #1327 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 6:17 am
Yes that’s a good question.
To lighten things up a bit:
During an impassioned sermon about death and final judgement, the pastor said forcefully, “Each member of this church is going to die and face judgement.”
Glancing down at the front pew, he noticed a man with a big smile on his face. The minister repeated his point louder. “Each member of this church is going to die and face judgement!” The man nodded and smiled even more.
This really got the preacher wound up. He pounded the pulpit emphatically when he came to the ultimatum: “Each member of this church is going to die and face judgement!!!” Though everyone else in the congregation was looking somber, the man in front continued to smile.
Finally the preacher stepped off the platform, stood in front of the man and shouted, “I said each member of this church is going to die!” The man grinned from ear to ear.
After the service was over, the preacher made a beeline for the man. “I don’t get it,” the preacher said in frustration. “Whenever I said, ‘Each member of this church is going to die,’ your smile got bigger. Why?”
“I’m not a member of this church,” the man replied.
Keane:
Congrats to @Melissa4Durack for finding her way out of witness protection. The pretence that she hasn’t been dumped in a downgraded junior ministry is charming, too.
poroti
I was tempted to post that photo of Mr Smug at 6 a.m., but felt it was too early to be faced by a backpfeifengesicht. 😉
Golden morning to be flying into Melbourne
Shellbell
Yep. Another sunny day to be enjoyed here in Melbourne. Temp set to reach 17 which is good considering it’s winter.
Victoria @ #1329 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 8:17 am
The Dodgy Bros have taken over the country. It’s becoming a 2nd rate country led by 2nd rate people.
Charity Watchdog looking at ACL:
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-union/charity-watchdog-could-investigate-australian-christian-lobby-over-folau-fundraiser-20190625-p5217h.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1561495266
More crazy stuff from Centrelink.
poroti @ #1333 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 8:22 am
Winners are grinners. 😐
C@t
It truly is. At this time last year I was in Italy. I was being smug as to how much better things were being managed back home.
Fast forward 12 months, and I feel like a fool.
Zoidlord @ #1342 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 8:37 am
Nothing will happen. The Charity watchdog becomes a tootless tiger when it comes to christian ‘charities’. It is also led by Gary Johns, who left his soul behind when he left the Labor Party and went to work for the IPA.
Victoria @ #1345 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 8:38 am
Salvini-Morrison Same-same. 😐
12 months ago Malcolm Turnbull was still PM. It feels like years ago.
C@t
Yep. Same same. Only thing keeping me sane is Daniel Andrews and co.
Here in my namesake state. Sigh……..
frednk says:
Wednesday, June 26, 2019 at 7:10 am
You should also listen to the RN Drive interview with Stephen Jones of the ALP – this is multiculturalism – there are ciews you will disagree with.
This is a bit weird.