I had a paywalled article in Crikey on the conclusion of the Senate election result, which among other things had this to say:
The Coalition went into the election with 31 senators out of 76 and comes out with 35 — and may be about to go one better if there is anything behind suggestions that Cory Bernardi is set to rejoin the Liberal Party. That would leave the government needing the support of only three crossbenchers to win contested votes.
That could be achieved with the two votes of the Centre Alliance plus that of Jacqui Lambie, who is newly restored to the Senate after falling victim to the Section 44 imbroglio in late 2017. Lambie appears to be co-operating closely with the Centre Alliance, having long enjoyed a warm relationship with the party’s founder Nick Xenophon.
Such a voting bloc would relieve the Morrison government of the need to dirty its hands in dealing with One Nation — though it could certainly do that any time the Centre Alliance members felt inspired to take liberal positions on such issues as asylum seekers and expansion of the national security state.
Since then, talk of Cory Bernardi rejoining the Liberal Party has moved on to suggestions he will leave parliament altogether, creating a casual vacancy that would stand to be filled by the Liberal Party. Bernardi announced he would deregister his Australian Conservatives party on Thursday following its failure to make an impression at the election, and told Sky News the next day that it “might be best for me to leave parliament in the next six months”, although he also said he was “unresolved”. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that sources on both sides of the SA Liberal Party’s factional divide say the front-runner would be Georgina Downer, daughter of the former Foreign Minister and twice-unsuccessful lower house candidate for Mayo. The party’s Senate tickets usually pair moderate and Right faction members in the top two positions, and Downer would take a place for the Right that was filled in 2016 by Bernardi, with the other incumbent up for re-election in 2022 being moderate-aligned Simon Birmingham.
In other news, Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo of the University of Sydney have posted slides from a detailed conference presentation on the great opinion poll failure. Once you get past the technical detail on the first few slides, this shows trend measures that attempt to ascertain the true underlying position throughout the parliamentary term, based on both polling and the actual results from both 2016 and 2019. This suggests the Coalition had its nose in front in Malcolm Turnbull’s last months, and that Labor only led by around 51-49 after he was dumped. An improving trend for the Coalition began in December and accelerated during the April-May campaign period. Also included is an analysis of pollster herding effects, which were particularly pronounced for the Coalition primary vote during the campaign period. Labor and Greens primary vote readings were more dispersed, in large part due to Ipsos’s pecularity of having low primary votes for Labor (accurately, as it turned out) and high ones for the Greens (rather less so).
Confessions:
[‘As I said, there’s no need for this matter to be drawn out in public debate the way it has.’]
Yours is a normative critique. The fact of the matter is that this matter’s got legs, reported in the international media. Happy-clappers worldwide have been searching for a cause celebre, and in Folau they’ve found one. Locally you have the Anglican Archbishop of Sydney supporting him, even though he (Folau) abhors the celebrations of Christman, Easter – His Grace obviously losing the plot, which is not really surprising. And, I dare say US evangelicals will contribute to Folau’s fighting fund. The timing could’ve not been better, with the Morrison Government considering legislation going to religious freedom. As I suggested earlier, Folau’s not much more than a pawn in the wider scheme of things.
I’m getting a lot of hate today for pointing out a passage in Rudd’s biography.
I certainly hope Jodi McKay wins the leadership contest for NSW Labor, as, despite OC’s somewhat condescending characterisation of Jodi pre politics, she is a strong woman with integrity and not afraid to stand up for, and articulate and advocate for, what is right and proper. I think she’ll be a formidable opponent for the ruthlessly transactional, Gladys Berejiklian.
C@t
Do you have any inside knowledge on the rumour she considered standing for the Libs in Port Stephens?
Oakeshott Country @ #1253 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 9:30 pm
None, other than it was simply a scurrilous rumour put about by her opponents in the party.
Careful OC. That’s an ALP member you are impugning. You might be called a troll, pubic lice or a vile pig.
Mavis:
Well I’ve certainly had my views described far less favourably than ‘normative critique’, so figure I’m batting 1000 on that front. 😀
nath says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 9:35 pm
Careful OC. That’s an ALP member you are impugning. You might be called a troll, pubic lice or a vile pig.
______________________
Yes it is clearly thoughtcrime!
The RWNJs, religious and otherwise, plus Murdoch are now springing into action to reinvigorate warfare over “freedom”. For them, Folau is merely a useful pawn who can be discarded when it is convenient to do so.
Unfortunately for Folau, his current 15 minutes of fame is likely to give way to a feeling of disillusionment as the legal proceedings drag on over the coming months and probably years. In the meantime he is no longer playing elite level rugby and presumably will be cut off from all the side benefits – lucrative product endorsements, interviews, mentoring young players – that elite sportspeople enjoy.
The sad thing for Folau is that the RWNJs pushing a “freedom” agenda won’t really care what happens to him after a year or two.
disingenuous disingenuousness so to speak!
Did you know that your old mate the Fireman has been purged from the party and now sits as the Independent member for Shithole East in the NT assembly. Eric was right about him all along.
Lars Von Trier @ #1257 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 9:42 pm
Haven’t you got a room for the night with nath yet?
I am getting junk mail about the dodgy building sites in Sydney/Mascot.
The fox / sky / news don’t really even want Folau to win. They just want to use him to tell their lies and spew their hate in the short term. If an employer can’t sack an employee for hate speech that does significant community damage, then surely they can’t sack them for legitimate political opinions that do not do any damage. Fox / sky / news loves nothing better than trying to silence free political speech by getting people sacked for exercising it.
So in my summary:
* the Parliament should set the standard / limit of acceptable hate speech and the mechanisms to enforce that standard.
* that standard should be high enough that any Christian or any other religion that just poured their hate into the public like that clown from rubgy should breach the standard; what he said is very damaging to vulnerable people, particularly children, and those vulnerable members of our community should be protected; there should be exceptions for, in people’s homes, religious institutions and places of worship provided that display a sign clearly saying they practice a religion that includes preaching hate and the persecution and exclusion of members of the Australian community.
* a finding that a person has breached that standard should be sufficient for an employer to sack a person with a ‘significant public profile’ but not otherwise.
A nice little balance to preserve ‘religious’ evil, I mean freedom, and to protect the vulnerable Australian’s in accordance with the kine of love you’d find in the bible if you read it with open eyes,and at least two braincells.
Now in news. About politics. That is actually significant (as opposed to the bum fluff nath specialises in). Scott Morrison is preparing the ground for the country to go to war with America against Iran.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/canberra-open-to-joining-international-effort-against-iran-20190625-p5213j.html
I don’t think that Morrison will find it as easy to convince the country as Howard did and that this is necessary for us to do. Just so that he can become Australia’s next ‘Deputy Sheriff’.
our descent into fascism has gone a lot further than this, nationalism will carry near to 50% of Australias instantly, you don’t oppose your troops in a fascist country.
Fox / sky / news will be full on ‘glory of war’ and the rest of the Australian media will be captured by that patriotic fervor. There will be 40% or so that strongly oppose it, but not in our ruling classes. Labor will probably support it.
Fascism wise, put a fork in us we are done.
[update stupid spelling errors corrected]
There really must be something horrible that they are putting in the drinking water over West. Everyone has been overtaken by despondency!
citizen,
Folau will likely end up playing in either France or Japan making a lot more money than he does now.
What an utter scum Steve Smith is. He and Warner are a cancer that need to be removed.
there is a gofundme I’d support, so long as there was an ironclad guarantee he could never reenter Australia.
Catmomma,
I’m not despondent (apart from the ridiculous VFL Tribunal decision tonight).
C@tmomma @ #1264 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 8:23 pm
Really?
I hadn’t even seen this but I don’t expert even rationality out of the VFL tribunal let alone consistency or fairness. It is a joke. But a ‘national’ competition that must have its grand final in the same state every year obviously is neither a serious national competition or a fair one.
There shouldn’t be laws against “hate” speech.
Who defines what “hate” is?
You might initially agree with the definition but what happens when Parliament decides what you believe is reasonable political or religious speech is now hate speech?
Confessions @ #1271 Tuesday, June 25th, 2019 – 10:28 pm
WeWantPaul talking about Aus having already reached the point of fascism. briefly in a pit of despond on a regular basis…
I know WA’s result in the federal election was dispiriting but it should only fire you up, not put out the fire that burns bright in the Light on the Hill.
Oakshott
Regarding Folau leaving homosexuality off the list …….. Homosexuality is THE issue. The other sins mentioned are mere camouflage.
It’s all about homosexuality and SSM, the preferred “medium” by which the religious right nutters (and the few RWNJs who don’t appear to also be religious nutters) can push their wagon.
WeWantPaul
A Richmond player can knock out a player and get to play in a GF but a Westcoast Eagles player is disadvantaged by a freaking chair?
Anyhoo, KK hasn’t thrown in the towel. She is attacking her new job with gusto:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/jun/25/peter-dutton-has-manipulated-the-truth-so-much-how-can-australians-trust-him
Every time put money on it. They penalized Nic Nat for being strong and good in the ruck.
She is attacking Dutton, Dutton FROM THE RIGHT. She is complaining that he wasn’t sending enough Saudi Arabian women and other refugees home to be executed. She complained he wasn’t running the concentration camps efficiently enough.
You don’t beat the nazis by being more nazi than them.
C@t:
Well I’m in WA yet am not drowning in despondency or throwing in the towel.
Psychlaw
Agreed. Homosexuality will be the shibboleth in the coming Kulturkampf.
An interesting time in Australia
Anyway enough happiness I’ve just seen Smith get out, he ran Stoinis out deliberately. Don’t know how I feel about him crying on the balcony, but I’m leaning towards cynical pr rather than genuine pain.
Anywhooo may the love and light of the Goddess shine on you all as you walk Her path.
One of the eternal mysteries – why is God apparently so obsessed with sex?
As in 1984; control sex and you control society. A key feature of most sects is that only the leaders get to have sex with anyone of their choosing and everyone else is on short rations. Does this make the Catholic Church a sect?
You have to laugh. Here’s the most incompetent government in living memory facing an oncoming recession and racing us headlong into another costly and stupid war, yet they’re still demanding that the other MPs and Senators vote to give rich people a massive tax cut in 2024.
Well, I have to laugh because if I don’t I’ll obviously succumb to the despondency that is apparently afflicting everyone on this side of the Nullabor.
nath says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 9:23 pm
Maybe if you focused on current events instead of pathetically trawling through past irrelevancies you might find a different response.
The results of the same-sex marriage poll would have encouraged conservatives to see how they could win over the No voters in traditional Labor seats with large immigrant populations, without the rest of the country noticing what they were up to. As long as this was done through largely subterranean means, like encouraging supporters to run plausibly deniable homophobic memes on WeChat, this seems to have been effective (if the results in seats like Banks and Chisholm are anything to go by). Bringing that sort of fight out into the open, where 63% of the population voted Yes, may not have quite the end results that its proponents want.
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery
says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 11:30 pm
nath says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 9:23 pm
I’m getting a lot of hate today for pointing out a passage in Rudd’s biography.
Maybe if you focused on current events instead of pathetically trawling through past irrelevancies you might find a different response.
_______________________________________
You mean, maybe if I stopped talking about things you don’t want discussed I’ll get less hatred. No thanks.
nath,
How is it relevant to anything he’s done as shadow Treasurer?
How is Morrison potentially shitting himself at a McDonalds relevant. Yet I have yet to find you arguing for it not to be discussed.
Jodi McKay has about as much charisma as a log and about as much ability too. She is hopeless. If this is the best NSW Labor can come up with for the leadership, then they are cooked.
nath says:
Wednesday, June 26, 2019 at 12:33 am
I’ve never commented on it and any references to it are as irrelevant and pathetic as your comments.
Nicholas says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2019 at 7:44 pm
I’m not Christian but I find Christianity to be intellectually rich and nuanced, full of wonder, focused on relevant questions, committed to learning and humility and service…
It’s an absurdity, for the most part. The intellectual and wonderment bits are attempts to replace its inherent irrationality and implausibility with mysticism. They’re deists. What is there about deism that is ‘relevant’? The deism is a distraction, a substitution racket. Actually, it’s a kind of decoy; a unicorn. Christian outfits have spent most the time since their inception trying to obstruct or bury learning while propping up the powerful.
They presume to have a kind of special knowledge. This is not humility. It’s conceit.
Have reviewed most of today’s posts on this blog, I must say I’m impressed by nath’s stamina and dedication to the cause.
From morning till after midnight it’s relentless slag and bag. Impressive stamina.
I recall when nath first appeared the poor sod was recovering in hospital and had some idle time, and the claim was made that nath would disappear when the convalesce completed.
But no. Instead we are regaled with a daily diet of bucket loads of shit being dumped on Labor identities, interspersed with an apparently encyclopaedic knowledge of everything else this good planet contains.
Impressive.
Player One says:
Monday, June 24, 2019 at 2:34 pm
Bucephalus @ #490 Monday, June 24th, 2019 – 12:58 pm
I oppose the plastic bag ban because it is has a net-negative impact on the environment:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-sorry-banning-plastic-bags-wont-save-our-planet/
I hope you are joking. I’d hate to believe that anyone could be quite that stupid
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Busyphilis demonstrates it over and over again, I’m afraid.
Tricot says:
Monday, June 24, 2019 at 4:58 pm
Does anything in politics really matter until a few weeks out from the next Federal election? On the basis of the 2019 one, it seems from a re-examination of the polls, that Labor was losing ground from about December 2018.
That the polls were so totally wrong is now, neither here nor there, but the lesson to be learned is that nobody is really listening or cares in any event. I am glad that Labor is opposing Stage 3 of the tax cuts as they are due to take place after the next bloody election.
For those with short memories Abbott virtually opposed everything from Day 1 of the Gillard government and then went on to win the next election. Labor should return in kind.
Shorten tried the reasoned approach with the electorate. Failed……………………….
Time for fear, attacking and shouting loud and long…………………..
I am fed up with being with Labor having to try to be reasonable.
The electorate, by and large understands fear and self-interest. Why should Labor be the bloody conscience of the country?
While I always admire Simon Crean, who had the guts to stand up and be counted when it came to our involvement in the evil of the Iraqi, and old Arty Caldwell for opposing conscription and our involvement in Vietnam, these did not bring office to Labor.
Being proved right is fu^%$#ck all value.
Labor was “right” about the RC for banking…………….Morrison opposed it tooth and nail………….how many times?? Who is bloody PM now???? Time for some mongrel…………………..
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Amen, Amen, Amen
Mavis Davis says:
Monday, June 24, 2019 at 8:15 pm
Davidwh:
[‘Mavis I was referring to “I have some admiration for Briefly”.
However he did put in his effort and hard yards for Labor leading up to the election so deserves respect for that.’]
Did you not refer to the stages of grief? Yes, I agree with you about briefly being a former Labor warrior, but he now bores the pants off many, so much so that I think, in jest, he’s turned Tory.
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OK all you Briefly-bashers out there. How many potential voters did you meet and attempt to persuade them to vote Labor? How many front doors did you knock? How much rejection in that process did you risk?
clem attlee @ #1292 Wednesday, June 26th, 2019 – 12:41 am
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Signed Bib and Braces Man from 19th century Victoria 😀
Well, here’s someone in Victoria who’s not happy. I awoke to the news that Morrison is putting on his “Onward, Christian soldiers” hat.