Ben Phillips of the Australian National University has been hawking research showing the demographic indicators that associated most clearly with the federal election swing, with the clearest patterns relating to Christianity, which correlated with a swing against Labor, and education and income, which went the other way. Evidently the Australia Institute has done something similar, with findings reported by Ross Gittins in the Sydney Morning Herald.
In considering research of this kind, one must acknowledge the perils of the ecological fallacy, whereby inferences about the behaviour of individuals are inappropriately drawn from aggregate-level data. My favourite illustration of this point relates to American politics, wherein the Republicans’ strongest states are those of the dirt-poor deep south, whereas wealthier voters favour the more conservative party in the United States as surely as they do here. As such, it should be recognised that Christian areas swinging to the Coalition need not signify that Christian voters did.
Nonetheless, the relationship between swings and the demographic features of the areas in which they did or didn’t happen is interesting in and of itself, and really all we have to go on until the Australian National University eventually publishes its Australian Election Study survey, particularly in the absence of intensive and high-quality exit polling that is conducted in the United States.
My own number crunching along these lines has involved collecting demographic measures of the areas in which each polling booth is located, and using multiple regression analysis to determine how well they predicted the primary vote swing to or against Labor. The results were as interesting for what didn’t prove predictive as for what did. In particular, an electorate’s age profile appeared to have little impact on its swing – or at least, none that couldn’t be better explained by other variables that might themselves correlate with age. This theme was picked up on in the article linked to above by Ross Gittins, which argues against the widely held notion that franking credits was the main culprit behind Labor’s poor show.
After a bit of trial and error, and whittling it down to variables that didn’t appear to be separately measuring identical effects, the most instructive variables proved to be income, home ownership, education and industry of employment, with a few ethnicity measures registering as worth-including-but-only-just.
| Estimate | Std. Error | t value | Pr(>|t|) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | -6.9363 | 0.581753 | -11.923 | < 2e-16 | *** |
| Median Income | 0.318518 | 0.149976 | 2.124 | 0.033719 | * |
| Home Owned | 0.032418 | 0.005457 | 5.94 | 2.97E-09 | *** |
| Secular/No Religion | 0.105852 | 0.007944 | 13.325 | < 2e-16 | *** |
| PrimaryIndustry | 0.007588 | 0.008037 | 0.944 | 0.345122 | |
| Construction | -0.071534 | 0.015903 | -4.498 | 6.95E-06 | *** |
| Manufacturing | -0.115724 | 0.016538 | -6.998 | 2.82E-12 | *** |
| Retail Trade | -0.061778 | 0.018229 | -3.389 | 0.000705 | *** |
| Prof/Sci/Tech | 0.147833 | 0.021587 | 6.848 | 8.05E-12 | *** |
| Education/Health | 0.054147 | 0.01123 | 4.822 | 1.45E-06 | *** |
| Indian/Sri Lankan | 0.045852 | 0.018952 | 2.419 | 0.015571 | * |
| East/S-E Asian | 0.016341 | 0.007274 | 2.246 | 0.024706 | * |
| VICdummy | 3.132668 | 0.18731 | 16.724 | < 2e-16 | *** |
| QLDdummy | -1.626883 | 0.190881 | -8.523 | < 2e-16 | *** |
| WAdummy | -0.538074 | 0.244318 | -2.202 | 0.02767 | * |
| SAdummy | 5.385121 | 0.267704 | 20.116 | < 2e-16 | *** |
| TASdummy | -2.856952 | 0.369256 | -7.737 | 1.15E-14 | *** |
| ACTdummy | -3.811539 | 0.6012 | -6.34 | 2.43E-10 | *** |
| NTdummy | 0.879791 | 0.853752 | 1.03 | 0.302807 |
The numbers in the “Estimate” column show the coefficients, i.e. how much each increment of that variable associated with the Labor swing. Three stars at the end means the effect is highly significant, two stars somewhat significant, one star of some significance, and with no stars we can’t say with any confidence if the relationship was positive or negative.
So, to pick one of the more striking results, for every 1% of population identifying as secular or “no religion”, Labor’s vote tended to be around 0.1% higher, independent of all other factors. Or to raise the stakes a little, Labor typically did 1% better in swing terms in places where 40% of the population identified as secular as compared with those where 30% did so. Note that the “median income” refers to weekly family income, and is measured in thousands of dollars – so an area with $2000 median family income typically did 0.3% for Labor than one with half that.
The biggest surprise for me is that “primary industry” – percentage of the workforce in mining, agriculture, forestry and fishing – had no significant explanatory power in and of itself. This doesn’t sit well with the drubbing Labor copped in central Queensland and the seat of Hunter, for which I can’t offer a ready explanation, except perhaps that I should have broken out mining and measured it independently of the others.
However, a significant negative effect is recorded for the other blue-collar industries of construction and manufacturing, together with the generally low-wage retail sector. This, remember, is independent of the effect of income, such that Labor would have suffered a combined whammy of the various effects in low-income areas with large workforces in the aforementioned industries.
On the other side of the coin, the “professional/scientific/technical” industry designation recorded a strong positive association with the Labor swing, and this too needs to be understood as part of a double whammy with the income effect. This was evident in the large-but-useless swings Labor picked up in blue-ribbon metropolitan seats. The positive effect recorded for education/health is interesting, perhaps suggesting a public-versus-private sector effect.
A fair bit has been said of Labor’s bad show with the Chinese community, but it was actually found that the “East/South-East Asian” population had a slight positive correlation with the Labor swing. However, the recorded effect is very likely drowned out by the strong positive result for “secular/no religion” variable, which records the effect of the swing against Labor in the various ethnic enclaves of Sydney and, to a less extent, Melbourne.
Finally, the “dummy” variables simply record how much of the swing could be explained by the state in which a booth was located, again independent of all other factors. Note that no measure for New South Wales is included, as it serves as the benchmark against which the other states and territories are being measured. The strong positive result in South Australian reflects that this is a primary vote measure, and both major parties rose in South Australia off the demise of the Nick Xenophon Team.
The r-squared value for the model is around 0.25, which is to say that all of this explains only about one-quarter of the variation in the Labor swing. In a future episode, I might take a closer look at what the model fails to predict by looking at individual electorates that bucked the various demographic trends just noted.
Note also: the new post below on the count for the Senate, in which only Queensland appears still in doubt, and the ongoing one dealing with close races in seat for the House, albeit that yesterday’s counting provided essentially nothing new to report.
People seem to forgetting that rules and laws are only for us and not for the Liberals and their mates.
It almost seems like we’re regressing to the situation in Cambodia where for a long time people accepted the corruption in the misguided hope that they could get a piece of the action.
Most now realise that will never be the case!
“Some very nice wine and by far the best single brewery in the country.”
Pirate Life? Prancing Pony? Coopers??
shiftaling says:
Tuesday, May 28, 2019 at 12:05 pm
…”Not sure, thanks but i don’t think we could cope with the increasingly intense cyclones”…
I doubt they are becoming more intense.
More intense ones do seem to be coming further south over time and those reaching as far south as here, may have less rain associated with them which is unfortunate.
But at least we have mangoes, and shit beer, and gap toothed banjo playing dimwits, and a Labor government, and you can walk around in thongs and shorts for 10 months of the year.
ItzaDream
Thank you for trying. 🙂
So everything suffered on the GBR actually flows from the north? And nothing can be done about it.
Morrison has a Cabinet of hopelessness. No wonder all they have left is prayer.
Good morning all.
Just checking in briefly whilst till one my 6 month Bludger sabbatical.
A quick read of the past half dozen pages ha reaffirmed the wisdom of having a long break and rethink about Australian politics. I dont think reading and reading the SAME sort of posts and positions from BEFORE the election regurgitated NOW is at all useful to the quiet reflection that progressives of all stripes really need undertake. Guytaur still going on like a two bob watch is a classic example: mate – if you are up to it, how about you and I go on a couple of road trips: a weekend to Canberra and then several days touring the Northern suburbs of Brisbane and maybe a dash up to Bundaberg, Gladstone and Rockhampton. Even you might be woke at the end of that exercise to the yawning gulf between Canberra folk and where Labor is missing out. Then again. Maybe not – I would have thought the mere fact that Labor holds 3 out of 3 seats in the ACT, as opposed to 6 out of 30 in Queensland would speak for itself. Just another thing I’ve been mistaken about in recent months, clearly …
One thing I think is certain. At the end of a process of reflection Labor (and its erstwhile allies) must learn from the past BUT not attempt to relitigate it: I reckon a big part of the problem last month was the cumulative effects of Labor appearing to govern from opposition and effectively rerunning ‘better’ versions of both the 2013 and 2016 campaigns. The political grounds had shifted and Labor’s position suddenly appeared both stale and susceptible to a crafty scare campaign. Of course I could be wrong about All of that – as I said: reflection is the watchword for the rest of 2019 …
Peace. Out.
https://www.tenterfieldstar.com.au/story/6185458/scott-morrison-promises-to-govern-humbly/?cs=9397
This man is no more humble than a dictator. Every word and all his deeds mean the opposite of how they appear.
chuckle, then sigh.
Meh. This is what everyone just voted for. Mostly because Queensland.
Not Sure @ #749 Tuesday, May 28th, 2019 – 12:10 pm
Yup. I speak like the average Australian, to average Australians and also to my Millennial children, to whom this is everyday vernacular. Sorry to offend you. Maybe you can call a wahmbulance?
lizzie @ #757 Tuesday, May 28th, 2019 – 12:37 pm
I think he’s speaking out of his man date. 🙂
This is how Gladys Liu won the electorate of Chisholm, by putting this on WeChat:
Just a comment
I decided after the election to become an active member of the poll bludger lounge for a number of reasons. I wanted to know if the thoughts I had about politics and Labor in particular were worth discussing. I personally needed the clarity that committing things to paper, or in this case, a touchpad, would bring. Circumstances dictate that I am housebound most days and I believe I need a degree of mental stimulation not offered by numerous puzzles.
My thought processes post election have focused on what I see as a need to sell Labors story, not the right wing version but the true achievements. You cannot change peoples minds till they see a greater value in what you sell to what they currently have.
My, at times, quite jumbled thought processes, have today delivered to me another interesting insight. How often do we use a saying that we understand but In our lives has no real relevance. So finally the reason for this post.
I was sitting scrolling through the news sites looking for something new to read and I heard the “ patter of little feet” I have always known what this means but have only really understood it since moving into a house with wood floors and a toddler. So when we say Labor introduced x,y and z, does the populace understand what this means for them.
This was in April.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/14/coalition-stopped-welfare-payments-to-55000-homeless-or-at-risk-jobseekers-in-six-months?CMP=share_btn_tw
“No, I would not opposed disaster relief…”
I don’t oppose disaster relief, but given the choices we’ve made, it might be time to think about what a disaster is.
Tsunami, sure, couldn’t see that coming. Drought, not sure that is anymore. There’s been plenty of warnings. If someone chooses to farm in a desert, not sure they deserve disaster relief.
If they choose to continue farming somewhere which is clearly going to suffer from climate change, I think I struggle to see they need disaster relief.
Assantdj
In my house, it’s dog claws on a wooden floor.
Reading in order to understand then post a comment is definitely more brain stimulating than puzzles, I’ve found. 🙂
Blobbit says:
Tuesday, May 28, 2019 at 1:09 pm
So, choosing to live in the tropics, no relief after a cyclone.
As for your last sentence, can you advise of a place on this planet that won’t suffer the effects of climate change.
Your criteria seems to exclude everyone and everywhere.
One good thing with it there will be no more natural disasters¿
Gladys Liu is repellent. Then again so are most of the Eastern Suburbs Libs…
The loopyness gets even stronger as you head east of Eastlink…
Assantdj,
I appreciate your thoughtful contributions. 🙂
I would just add to your recent one that there seems to be certain words and phrases that trigger people and the Coalition use them more effectively than doers Labor.
ALP hit font in Macquarie
News.com is running an interesting story on a man who used both public and private health systems during his treatment of a brain tumour. It questions the benefits of private health insurance.
A) where was this story during the election when Morrison was undermining Labors cancer policy
B) how broken does our health system need to be before a radical overturning of the push for private health insurance can occur
shellbell @ #770 Tuesday, May 28th, 2019 – 1:43 pm
Times New Roman? 😆
By 27 votes. A recount should be a near certainty?
Bass has gone back into the questionable column. The AEC is still counting it as a Liberal win, but if it goes the other way, the Libs will be back to 76 seats.
Nah. Bass is well and truly gone.
Pn what criteria, I wonder.
a r
I agree, but it’s strange the way the AEC keeps taking it in and out of the seats in question. I can’t work out – looking at the vote count – why this is so.
How boring is ScoMo?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/wind-at-our-backs-morrison-warns-against-complacency-in-party-room-meeting-20190528-p51ry2.html
How good at what, is the question.
Given the acres of media comment about Morrison’s huge win, how much commentary will we see if as now looks likely we are back to where we started from.
I must admit to not being as despondent as I was initially I just hope that in resetting Labor doesn’t overreact and damage it’s chances in 2022, if the Libs last that long.
It sounds harsh to say but I hope the economy tanks as expected and the liberals have to wear the blame. I truely believe that everything bad happens for a reason. Maybe one day we will look back and see losing in 2019 as a blessing.
It’s so weird. Morrison’s win is only “huge” if viewed in the context of polls which said a Labor landslide was coming.
But the polls were wrong, so set those to one side and all Morrison has is a status-quo result. He’s done basically the same as Turnbull in 2016 (but without the petulant late-night speech).
McCormack reckons Morrison could be one of the greatest prime ministers of modern times – pfft:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wind-at-our-backs-morrison-warns-against-complacency-in-party-room-meeting-20190528-p51ry2.html
This ‘new’ govt is rewriting the dictionary.
Govern for all means all who voted for us.
Let’s not kid ourselves – there was a substantial 2PP swing to the government. They didn’t pick up many seats so the seat count is very similar, but this is not 2016 repeated where it was genuinely close.
The Libs didn’t do particularly well, but they weren’t hammered like Labor was.
Ummm. Like the watered down CPRS that was bipartisan policy until Abbott took over and dumped it?
What about Liberal party calls for bipartisanship with thefurther watered down Clean Energy Target which they then dumped. Or the further watered down NEG, which they then dumped.
The Coalition, home of homeopathic climate solutions.
lizzie says:
Tuesday, May 28, 2019 at 2:22 pm
So that’s a message mainly for his own Coalition colleagues, is it?
Labor has said, for a long time, that it is willing to consider and work towards one, but the Liberals continually failed to propose one to the Parliament.
Simon K
That might stimulate some ideas. “Like heals like”.
Not sure how to simulate the effects of climate change, however.
Simon² Katich® says:
Tuesday, May 28, 2019 at 2:37 pm
Just add water!
Well that would solve the drought.
Re Adani the man: A very well educated Indian taxi driver told me this story about Adani , while driving me to the airport. The Prime Minister of India, Modi, knowing that Adani had huge debts to the banks ,that may cause them to collapse , did the following. He told the 1 billion or so population of India to open a bank account with any bank and the government would put 30K in each account. But they would need first to put $10 in. The banks then took this money out of their accounts to cover Adani’s debts.
It seemed a preposterous story, you would think most of the population would take his instructions as a joke, but because most of the Indian population is illiterate, as the taxi driver said, huge numbers fell for it.
He said India is run by 5 or 6 very wealthy men and politicians are often dispensed with by death rather than being voted out. This is the man , Adani, if you believe it , who is going to to be highly subsidised by our money to create another scam.
There is something amiss with Centrelink needing a fixed adddress for homeless people because many homeless person are able to access welfare payments although this is usually organised through a third party like State Trustees. Needing a fixed address is a strange rule because welfare payments are not sent to a person’s house but too that person’s bank account.
Simon Katich
Nothing as scientific as homeopathy. It is faith healing all the way. McCormack has already recommended prayer as one of the things to do the fixing the drought and the MD. Meanwhile Scrott’s fruit loops are big on miracle cures so that has Medicare covered.
As for climate change it will happen if it is God’s will. Therefore to do something to stop it is trying to stop the will of God. So very norty. The sad part is I have heard Yankee bible bashing lollies claim just that. Even sadder is you can be sure we have some like that here 🙁
RE Lizzies post:
izzie @ #757 Tuesday, May 28th, 2019 – 12:37 pm
Richard O’Brien @RichardAOB
2h2 hours ago
Angus Taylor says he has a clear mandate not to be asked any more questions about water sales and Cayman Islands shelf companies.
chuckle, then sigh.
Just who does this joker think that he is ?
As a member of the Government, he is a public servant, it is not for him to dictate whether we can question his actions as a minister
@Jackol -Seats that were “low hanging fruit” for Labor before Saturday night no longer are.
They would need a big correction in QLD and a decent 2pp swing in NSW to win in 2022.
another thought on the early days of this parliament, is it just me who is detecting an increased amount of hubris coming from the COALition ?
People pushing the idea of a people’s bank need to be clear as to why they want such government investment because if the point is to create a well behaved and loved banking system then I think you will be disappointed but if its because you believe the government should own a bank then the easiest option is to expand the role for the existing state government trustees businesses.
I don’t know about ‘the wind at their backs’, more like, the media in their corner.
Bass is gorn because I said early in the campaign both Braddon and Bass would go.
So Bass is gorn.
Because right now the banks squeeze billions of dollars in profits out of hardworking Australians every single quarter and keep it all for themselves (and/or their shareholders).
A government-run bank could either be run on a not-for-profit basis and as a result offer vastly more-affordable loans, or it could offer loans on approximately similar terms to the private banks but with the benefit that all the profits go back into the public purse instead of to private companies, their investors, and their sleazy (as per banking RC) CEO’s.
Lizzie
Regarding your earlier comment about Jones interviewing Albo, I took that question from Jones to be a gotcha question that Albo played well because the ALP’s infrastructure policies were sound so it makes sense to draw attention to your own role.