Of swings and misses: episode two

Talk of a new industry body to oversee polling standards gathers pace, even as international observers wonder what all the fuss is about.

The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age – or the Herald/Age, to adopt what is evidently Nine Newspapers’ own preferred shorthand for its Sydney and Melbourne papers – have revealed their opinion polling will be put on ice for an indefinite period. They usually do that post-election at the best of times, but evidently things are more serious now, such that we shouldn’t anticipate a resumption of its Ipsos series (which the organisation was no doubt struggling to fund in any case).

This is a shame, because Ipsos pollster Jessica Elgood has been admirably forthright in addressing what went wrong – and, importantly, in identifying the need for pollsters to observe greater transparency, a quality that has been notably lacking from the polling scene in Australia. In particular, Elgood has called for the establishment of a national polling standards body along the lines of the British Polling Council, members of which are required to publish details of their survey and weighting methods. This was echoed in a column in the Financial Review by Labor pollster John Utting, who suggests such a body might be chaired by Professor Ian McAllister of the Australian National University, who oversees the in-depth post-election Australian Election Study survey.

On that point, I may note that I had the following to say in Crikey early last year:

The very reason the British polling industry has felt compelled to observe higher standards of transparency is that it would invite ridicule if it sought to claim, as Galaxy did yesterday, that its “track record speaks for itself”. If ever the sorts of failures seen in Britain at the 2015 general election and 2016 Brexit referendum are replicated here, a day of reckoning may arrive that will shine light on the dark corners of Australian opinion polling.

Strange as it may seem though, not everyone is convinced that Australian polling really put on all that bad a show last weekend. Indeed, no less an authority than Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has just weighed in with the following:

Polls showed the conservative-led coalition trailing the Australian Labor Party approximately 51-49 in the two-party preferred vote. Instead, the conservatives won 51-49. That’s a relatively small miss: The conservatives trailed by 2 points in the polls, and instead they won by 2, making for a 4-point error. The miss was right in line with the average error from past Australian elections, which has averaged about 5 points. Given that track record, the conservatives had somewhere around a 1 in 3 chance of winning.

So the Australian media took this in stride, right? Of course not. Instead, the election was characterized as a “massive polling failure” and a “shock result”.

When journalists say stuff like that in an election after polls were so close, they’re telling on themselves. They’re revealing, like their American counterparts after 2016, that they aren’t particularly numerate and didn’t really understand what the polls said in the first place.

I’m not quite sure whether to take greater umbrage at Silver’s implication that Antony Green and Kevin Bonham “aren’t particularly numerate”, or that the are – huck, spit – “journalists”. The always prescient Dr Bonham managed a pre-emptive response:

While overseas observers like Nate Silver pour scorn on our little polling failure as a modest example of the genre and blast our media for failing to anticipate it, they do so apparently unfamiliar with just how good our national polling has been compared to polling overseas.

And therein lies the rub – we in Australia have been rather spoiled by the consistently strong performance of Newspoll’s pre-election polls especially, which have encouraged unrealistic expectations. On Saturday though, we saw the polls behaving no better, yet also no worse, than polling does generally.

Indeed, this would appear to be true even in the specifically Australian context, so long as we take a long view. Another stateside observer, Harry Enten, has somehow managed to compare Saturday’s performance with Australian polling going all the way back to 1943 (“I don’t know much about Australian politics”, Enten notes, “but I do know something about downloading spreadsheets of past poll data and calculating error rates”). Enten’s conclusion is that “the average error in the final week of polling between the top two parties in the first round” – which I take to mean the primary vote, applying the terminology of run-off voting of the non-instant variety – “has been about five points”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,078 comments on “Of swings and misses: episode two”

  1. c@t asks how to console a son who is down because of the election.

    BW says to hug him and advise it is OK to hate the Greens.

    How low class is that?

  2. This is an important article. It shows that, in NSW, at least, we are ‘blaming’ the wrong people. In fact, just like in Trumplandia, the lower income earners voted against their own interests. There is an excellent map, showing, on a booth by booth basis, that the wealthy suburbs swung to Labor, and the poorer suburbs swung to the Libs.

    I strongly suggest that we all read it.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-24/scott-morrisons-trump-like-election-victory/11145406

    Sadly, all of my children, including younger daughter who worked her butt off with Getup, are also shattered, like Cat’s son. Me too.

  3. Psyclaw:

    [‘You can CBT a person having a psychotic or depressive episode till the cows come home and you won’t improve them.’]

    Agree. Those with a psychotic illness will not generally improve without medication. What I’m suggesting, though, is that the vast majority just need an emphatic ear, mostly the young, the oldies needing to deal with the vagaries of life.

  4. There is an excellent map, showing, on a booth by booth basis, that the wealthy suburbs swung to Labor, and the poorer suburbs swung to the Libs.

    Ditch Unions, change ‘Labor’ in ALP to ‘Progressive’ and win every election this side of 2050.

  5. What is a name @ #743 Friday, May 24th, 2019 – 9:38 pm

    If Scott Morrison thinks he is a Christain and can kick out a family because their child is disabled then he is just wrong. He is a fake Christian and a cruel Prime Minister.

    Morrison is not a Christian in the conventional sense. He is a member of a cult calling itself Christian but cherry picking those parts of the Bible that suit its narrow purposes.
    They should be mocked, disparaged and called out as the hypocrites they are.

  6. Simon² Katich®
    says:
    Friday, May 24, 2019 at 10:28 pm
    There is an excellent map, showing, on a booth by booth basis, that the wealthy suburbs swung to Labor, and the poorer suburbs swung to the Libs.
    Ditch Unions, change ‘Labor’ in ALP to ‘Progressive’ and win every election this side of 2050.
    ___________________________
    Absolutely.

  7. Note that this map indicates the swings. We still have high Liberal votes in rich suburbs and high Labor vote in poor suburbs. It’s just that the wealth factor is smaller this time and the cultural factor is larger, perhaps following the US.

  8. Agree with dropping the ‘Labor’ part of ALP and replacing it with something like ‘Progressive’.
    The ‘Liberal’ part of LNP is a definite misnomer …Conservative would be more apt.

  9. Trade Callum Sinclair to anyone who will take him.

    With his opposing ruckman (who has pantsed him) off, 2 points down, he puts a piss weak effort in leading to Mayne’s shot and the Rampe weird play of the week.

  10. twas only a ball behaving like JFKs magic bullet that allowed Collingwood to win a premiership in the last 25 years.

  11. nath
    The list of great people who would roll in their graves if they saw what was done one their names is pretty huge; Nietzsche (who actually said all anti-Semites should be shot(pretty sure he was thinking out his sister), Darwin, Christ etc.

  12. None of you were complaining about Queenslanders when the Lions beat the pies two years in a row in 2002-03, were you? Were you!?

    Well, maybe you were. But if you were laughing a Eddie Mcguire losing his shit about it at the same time, then that’s a trade I’m happy with.

  13. That’s the dumbest thing I’ve heard. A slim loss at an election and they’re throwing out the Labor party. Talk about rolling in graves.

  14. Diogenes
    says:
    Friday, May 24, 2019 at 10:52 pm
    nath
    The list of great people who would roll in their graves if they saw what was done one their names is pretty huge; Nietzsche (who actually said all anti-Semites should be shot(pretty sure he was thinking out his sister), Darwin, Christ etc.
    _________________________
    Possibly my favourite in misappropriation was Donald Horne’s Lucky Country term, which he devised as a mocking phrase:
    “Australia is a lucky country run by second rate people who share its luck”
    To Horne’s horror and to the delight of everyone who knew what he meant the term was taken up by the second rate people as an honorific. Superb!

  15. Chinda63 says:
    Friday, May 24, 2019 at 9:39 pm

    Bjork is a bit of a “love her or hate her” kind of character, so I figured that was it

    Only undying love here.

    One of the most amazing voices ever! 🙂

  16. nath
    Another one is a famous maxim in medicine;
    “Thou shalt not kill; but needst not strive officiously to keep alive.”
    Which tacitly supports euthanasia when Clough meant the opposite.
    The next lines are;
    Do not adultery commit;
    Advantage rarely comes of it:
    Thou shalt not steal; an empty feat,
    When it’s so lucrative to cheat:

  17. That’s the dumbest thing I’ve heard. A slim loss at an election and their throwing out the Labor party. Talk about rolling in graves.

    It was in jest.

    Partly.

    Yes, small loss. Yes, there needs to be a labor movement. But 33% primary means the ALP brand is in trouble. Radical change, a rebranding, is an option. A new leader, maintaining core values and waiting for the chickens to come home and sh!t all over Liberal roost is a more reasonable option.

    Option 3. I would suggest there is a need for a third way party to pry away rusted on Liberals and keep disaffected others from turning to dirtbags like Tubbs Farquhar.

  18. Yabba @ 10.25pm;
    That graphic is extremely potent and potentially points a way forward for the nation. If the ‘well heeled, well educated’ demographic did indeed swing more progressive / favour policy over fear that makes me feel less resentful of the archetypal selfish/greedy voter.
    I interpret the swing amongst the less educated as being part of the long term neoliberal 1% goal of fooling the poor and unengaged into voting against their own interest.
    A strategy to win with honour, and with something to govern for must include retaining some sound policy – and this may help move some middle class seats.
    The hard bit is winning over those with the most to gain by being won over. Does anyone have good evidence as to where the fertile ground is? Is there a need to go hard on bridging cultural divides to befriend and engage 1st generation migrant families who do not understand the political lie of the land? Left=Communist to some, A role for Government= Big Government fascism to some, and racism is an inherent and normal trait in most of the world, even if we can’t see that because of our multicultural leanings.
    I have been told by a Vietnamese refugee how terrible these new refugees are…

  19. Trouble is those “progressives” will go running back to the dark side as soon as they have some urbane ex-merchant banker propped up on puppet strings.

    Whereas those blue dots you see in red heartland are disillusioned people casting around in confusion, not realising, because there’s no breath of it in what poses for political reporting in this country, exactly how little their lives matter to this government.

    Appreciate your comment was tongue in cheek, I probably overreacted in that case

  20. Diogenes
    says:
    Friday, May 24, 2019 at 11:11 pm
    nath
    Another one is a famous maxim in medicine;
    “Thou shalt not kill; but needst not strive officiously to keep alive.”
    Which tacitly supports euthanasia when Clough meant the opposite.
    The next lines are;
    Do not adultery commit;
    Advantage rarely comes of it:
    Thou shalt not steal; an empty feat,
    When it’s so lucrative to cheat:
    ____________________________
    I’m reading about him now cheers. Night all.

  21. Lucky Creed:

    Actually the average swing against a second term government in a federal byelection is 5.9% so these two byelections were very very weak results for Labor, but you can believe what you like.

    What’s the standard deviation on those, though? What happens when you exclude by-elections caused by a Government member quitting Parliament (where you’d expect a loss of personal vote and perhaps some resentment on the part of the electorate for forcing them back to the polls)?

  22. Isn’t it ironic that the less wealthy understand better than those with money that socialism in any shape or form is a long path to nowhere. Whereas the well to do have the luxury of playing to their feel good ideological porn interests.

  23. A different Michael

    SK – and only appalling umpiring that cost us one in the last twelve months.

    Haha…still can’t admit you were beaten by a better side in the GF.
    You had an unwarranted home ground advantage in that game and still got the wobbles.
    The ordinary effort in tonight’s game shows how lucky Collingwood is that they rarely have to travel.

  24. SALK – I think it is a bit more complex than that, plus that is just the swing at one election, put the same graph up for 2007 and the map will look pretty much the opposite.

    I think the leakage of the Labor blue collar vote has it’s roots in the tai lend of the Hawke Keating years when the line between the two parties on the core 20th century political issue ie economics had become blurred and Labor had moved onto mainly emphasising cultural issues that many blue collar workers regarded at best as being of a low priority.

    The working man once at the centre of the Labor narrative now seemed a secondary priority so the tribal my party right or wrong vote began to weaken It’s still there to some degree (In Brisbane think Oxley and Rankin) but it ain’t what it was.

    As far as Labor chasing the progressive middle class vote, they have had good swings in these kind of seats before 2004 for eg but actually winning is very difficult and would require dumping stuff like taxing dividends which puts a lid on the kind of swing Labor can get in these seats

    I actually don’t think the Labor tax policy cost them much in regional QLD or outer Western Sydney but I do think it probably killed off any chance of winning the four to six seats in Victoria people were talking about or taking a seat like Brisbane or Boothby.

    CAF I maintain that those were poor swings for Labor on historical precedent and not the swings you would expect of an opposition that was surging to victory in an upcoming election.

  25. My hypothesis and of course this in not applied chemistry so I can’t put it in a test tube shake it around and conclusively confirm or deny is the map you are looking at comes down to climate change

    To the middle classes it is as Rudd said the great moral challenge of our time, to the working class it is higher electricity prices and possibly the death of the industry they work in and the community they live in and yes like Brexit in the UK it has the potential to completely shake up the old political order here in Australia.

  26. A couple of thoughts. Labor is the party of organized Labour. if you don’t like that… fuck off and form your own party. Two, the biggest problem for Labor wasn’t the name, it wasn’t the ties with unions, it was the preoccupation with identity issues that make up 99% of the concerns of inner urban trendies, but are an anathema to ordinary working class voters out in the suburbs. None of this identity politics speaks to them and is it any wonder that they are alienated. There are at least 10% of the electorate who should be voting Labor consistently, but who have turned to ON and others due to this. Labor need to get back to campaigning on it’s strengths and to shun identity issues. Leave all that crap to the Greens, you know all those first world issues.

  27. Salk, that’s plainly crap. Even if the ALP went in promising to raise Newstart, you couldn’t credibly say that. Maybe the poorer areas might have swung in for Labor.

    Your presenting the neoliberal narrative, and in typical fashion, incorporating a false premise.

    You’re trying to push people to the right along with all the other right wingers by gaslighting.

    Have you forgotten where you are? Let this comment remind you.

  28. Salk I’m a football fan and we chant “sing win you’re winning, you only sing when you’re winning…” this oh so applies to you and all the other right wing blow ins.

  29. https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/05/24/swings-misses-episode-two/comment-page-17/#comment-3188075

    There has certainly been a problematic trend towards class issues being overlooked by major left of centre parties, with non-class (or in many cases not directly class) issues being fought for. However, that does not mean that only class issue matter, just that they have been dropped.

    There are many “identity” issues that are not directly class identity* issues that are important to many working class people. Women are one of the biggest parts of the working class, so most of the feminist issues are important to many people other than inner urban trendies. There are lots of people in ethnic minorities in the working class, so ethnic minority issues matter to many people other than inner-city trendies. This is the case with other issues as well.

    * Class politics is itself a form of identity politics as class is an identity.

  30. Come to think of it there were warning signs at the Braddon and Longman by-elections. There was virtually no swing to Labor at that by-election and not a huge one at the Longman one. Also I remember seeing polling that Labor vote was a little higher, if Anthony Albanese was Labor leader instead of Bill Shorten. It seems voters like Albanese better than Shorten.

  31. Tristo,

    There were quite a few warning signs, but nothing that made it obvious a Labor loss would happen.

    Also, we now know there was a systematic error in the opinion polls, which for some time had skewed them to the ALP in terms of TPP. Despite Nate Silver’s opinion, there was a good reason to trust the opinion polls.

    There was also the way many businesses factored in a Labor win, and have now had to backtrack on people they hired on this expectation.

    Also, close as it was, Labor only needed a couple of seats net to be able to form government. If a few things had gone Labor’s way, then we would be discussing the close shave Labor had, and the lucky minority / small majority government. The Greens could have one one or two seats off the Coalition, and/ or Labor could have won a couple of seats from the Coalition. The narrative now would be completely different.

    I suspect the Coalition had a few more things than usual line up their way for the three week election voting period, and I do not expect this luck to last. Apart from anything else, the media will get bored with attacking Labor, and start to niggle at the Coalition.

    For me, a couple of significant warning signs were when Zeh in Braddon(?), and Briefly in WA (seat?) reported that the “noise” they were hearing on the ground was not encouraging for Labor. Another odd warning sign was we had a sudden influx of members to our local ALP branch, keen to help and hand out on the day. While I was very happy for this, it reminded me just a bit too much of the small number of very enthusiastic people who joined Labor after the Dismissal in 1975, giving some hope that people were rallying against Fraser and Kerr. I was concerned that these people were also picking up the “talk” that Labor were doing worse than anyone expected.

    Like Victoria I also had this horrible feeling that I would not feel comfortable thinking about a Labor win until Antony Green called the election. I think my subconscious was picking up some problems.

  32. I am trying not to take this too personally, but I did raise a few times on this blog, both before and after the election, that FDOTM was unhelpful to getting rid of our Coalition government, because he was unrelenting on twitter in saying “Labor does not deserve your vote”. I did ask if he could at lease suggest Labor deserved people preferences, but he was adamant “Labor does not deserve people’s preferences.

    I hope it was not just because of my (mild) criticism that he felt the need to draw the following cartoon: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/24/first-dog-on-the-moon-lost-the-election-for-bill-shorten-coward

  33. On the positive side of the equation – for non golfers – having Mr. Morrison and his band of lovelies in power enables those so inclined to enhance their rude word collection.

    My entry for nonsense post of the week.

  34. Sorry, D&M, but I read that FDotM cartoon and all I can say is that the guy is a naif and lives in cloud cuckoo land if he thinks that a combination of campaigning to turn Labor into The Greens and campaigning against the government in general will turn the electorate into Labor voting citizens with the scent of a better world in their nostrils, then he is more deluded than I originally thought.

    No one campaigned more than the Unions. No one campaigned harder and more openly for what was right for the greatest number of disadvantaged people in this country than Labor did, and then there were the Climate Kids. Basically, all the things that he is saying we need to do to win. Guess what? We lost to a bunch of liars and the lies they told.

    So what’s his solution to that!?!

  35. Ex – NSA John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee

    Now, who would benefit from killing UKUSA, the world’s oldest and most successful intelligence partnership?

    President Donald Trump said Friday he wants Attorney General Bill Barr to take his investigation into the Russia probe global and examine events in Great Britain, Australia, and Ukraine.

    ‘It was an attempted coup or an attempted take down of the president of the United States. It should never ever happen to anybody else,’ Trump fumed as he left the White House en route to Japan.

    He explained his order granting Barr declassification authority and ordering the intelligence community to cooperate.

    ‘I’ve declassified everything. He can look,’ Trump said.

    ‘I hope he looks at the U.K. And I hope he looks at Australia. And I hope he looks at Ukraine. I hope he looks at everything. Because there was a hoax that was perpetrated on our country,’ Trump said.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7067941/Trump-says-confront-Theresa-Britains-role-spying-campaign.html?ito=rss-flipboard

  36. jansant

    @Jansant

    @ABCnews TV completely ignore thousands of Australian kids & millions world-wide on #climatestrike.

    Bloody weird how they can give live national coverage to Morrison promising new lights for a tiny netball court during #ausvotes, but a world news event – crickets. #auspol

  37. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Bevan Shields tells us that some MPs are nervous about whether the Morrison’s autocratic style will creep into the cabinet room.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-sort-of-prime-minister-does-scott-morrison-want-to-be-20190522-p51pwr.html
    Peter Hartcher writes that from much of media treatment of the Morrison government’s win, you’d think that it was the result of a great upwelling of support for the Coalition, Australia swooning in collective rapture over ScoMo and his baseball caps. Rather is was people voting for the ones they hated least.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/the-party-we-hate-least-by-a-small-margin-wins-government-20190524-p51qyx.html
    “A triumph of image over substance, fear over logic, politics over policy”. Michael West reports on Election 2019 and the inexorable rise of corporate power over democracy.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/election-2019-big-business-has-a-go-gets-a-go/
    Sean Kelly previews the three year Albanese/Morrison face-off.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/it-s-a-new-ballgame-morrison-and-albanese-must-make-the-ground-rules-20190523-p51qlu.html
    “This was a political contest flagged as ‘the climate change election’, yet it has yielded a perverse result. Instead of pushing government towards greater action on climate change, it has pushed the other way ”, writes Mike Seccombe.
    https://www.outline.com/CFrrqj
    Scott Morrison is now seen as a political genius, but the previous government wasn’t a good one. The only thing that should be on his agenda for the next three years is being a better one, writes Laura Tingle.
    https://www.outline.com/kdfPRs
    According to Paul Bongiorno the RBA has quickly ended the Coalition’s celebrations.
    https://www.outline.com/bDHD69
    Adele Ferguson reports that changes in the way we eat has prompted calls within the tax office to alter how our food is taxed. She outlines a big wish list the ATO will be putting to the Treasurer.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/salads-burgers-and-a-cherry-on-top-gst-food-reforms-canvassed-at-ato-20190524-p51qsd.html
    Karen Middleton writes that as Labor attempts to understand how it lost the unlosable election, old divisions have been reopened by the party’s search for a new identity to win back voters.
    https://www.outline.com/x4XJ9y
    Josh Frydenberg will commission a review of the retirement income system, including the interaction of superannuation, government pensions and, potentially, taxation.
    https://www.outline.com/4PcbYq
    Advertising expert Tony Michelmore explains why election polling was so wrong and tells us it’s time to shut up and listen.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/time-to-shut-up-and-listen-why-election-polling-was-so-wrong-20190523-p51qds.html
    Lisa Martin reports that the Australian Council of Trade Unions has appointed a former Queensland state Labor MP, Evan Moorehead, to review its election tactics and advertising campaign, which cost an estimated $25m.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/24/actu-launches-review-of-25m-election-campaign-after-labor-defeat
    Matt Wade deduces that the election results show a growing divide within the nation.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/we-have-two-australias-election-results-show-a-growing-divide-within-the-nation-20190524-p51qu8.html
    Michelle Grattan wonders what will now become Labor’s policy destination.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-shocked-labor-moves-on-but-to-what-policy-destination-117698
    Sky News has been “rocked” by the defection of political editor David Speers to ABC – and could try to delay his move to the public broadcaster, writes Michael Lallo.
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/rocked-by-speers-defection-sky-news-may-delay-his-move-to-abc-20190524-p51qsj.html
    Bloomberg says the numbers on Adani simply don’t add up.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-numbers-on-adani-simply-don-t-add-up-20190524-p51qoy.html
    Michael Koziol writes that Labor’s tectonic plates are shifting as it gets a nominally left-wing leader at the same time as its wealth redistribution agenda has come under question.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/just-a-jump-to-the-left-and-then-a-step-to-the-right-the-challenges-facing-anthony-albanese-20190522-p51pwz.html
    This is quite a good reflection from Ross Gittins on the causes of the election result.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/let-s-be-frank-tax-plan-shouldn-t-be-credited-with-labor-s-demise-20190523-p51qmr.html
    Elizabeth Farrelly goes in even harder, lamenting the sheer willingness with which Australian voters are duped. We admire New Zealand for the candour of its new Prime Minister, she says, yet here we punish people for telling the truth.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/election-heartbreak-voters-begged-to-be-duped-20190523-p51qgl.html
    “Why did so many working class suburbs back the Liberals?”, asks David Crowe.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/why-did-so-many-working-class-suburbs-back-the-liberals-20190523-p51qhn.html
    Despite their loss at the recent election, the Labor party can regroup and become the beacon of hope Australia needs, writes John Wren in his review of the week that was.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/wrens-week-labor-party-down-but-not-out,12733
    Andrew Leigh has openly attacked the campaign strategy of the Greens in the recent federal election, saying they targeted progressive seats rather than those held by the Coalition in the ACT.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6180684/andrew-leigh-blasts-greens-over-campaign-strategy/?cs=14225
    Michael West reveals that as major companies express their delight at Scott Morrison’s re-election, figures show untendered contracts have surged since the Coalition first took office in 2013, with $50 billion awarded in the two months before the election.
    https://www.outline.com/segjGY
    Nicole Hasham writes that Mark Butler says Labor’s calamitous election loss is no reason to walk away from tough emissions cuts, as a senior party figure described the result of its climate strategy in Queensland as “absolute carnage”.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6181372/labor-digs-in-on-climate-change-stance/?cs=14350
    “Was the time and money invested on their campaigns by GetUp!, unions and Clive Palmer a good return on investment?”, asks The New Daily.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/24/federal-election-campaigns/
    This SMH editorial goes into safety on building sites and how it could be better encouraged and enforced.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/young-worker-s-death-should-not-be-in-vain-20190524-p51qtf.html
    Sally Whyte reports that independent candidate for the Senate Anthony Pesec has accused Australian Electoral Commission staff of giving voters the wrong information about how to vote for him, saying it affected the number of votes he received on Saturday.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6180279/pesec-aec-gave-wrong-instructions/?cs=14329
    Martin McKenzie-Murray says that Australia’s offshore processing contracts with Nauru have abetted the longstanding corruption in the micro-nation. With elections looming in the coming months, Nauruans have grave concerns about their country’s future.
    https://www.outline.com/bSRLKn
    Nick Miller writes on it being the end of the road for Theresa May.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/rusted-on-lady-may-finally-accepts-the-inevitable-she-failed-her-mission-20190524-p51r0r.html
    And this politics lecturer explains why Boris Johnson would be a mistake to succeed Theresa May.
    https://theconversation.com/why-boris-johnson-would-be-a-mistake-to-succeed-theresa-may-117671
    Matthew Knott and Nick Miller explain how Donald Trump’s reckless diplomacy is inflaming the world.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/reckless-how-donald-trump-s-diplomacy-is-inflaming-the-world-20190524-p51qo3.html
    As it becomes a more common practice for politicians to sue for defamation, perhaps it’s time for some reforms to the law, writes Brooke Murphy.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/politicians-suing-for-defamation-freedom-of-speech,12735
    John McDonald writes that too many works of mediocrity are dragging down the Archibald Prize, He has a point.
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/art-and-design/too-many-works-of-mediocrity-drag-down-the-archibald-prize-20190521-p51phq.html
    Trump’s trade war against China has so far focused on attacking imports. His new front: Weaponising American exports.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/trump-eyes-an-even-more-powerful-weapon-than-tariffs-for-his-trade-war-20190524-p51qpa.html
    Perth’s Catholic archbishop, Timothy Costelloe, says forcing religious leaders in Western Australia to reveal knowledge of child sex abuse risks “interfering with the free practice of the Catholic faith” and will be ineffective – a stance that advocates say is “ignorant and pig-headed”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/24/archbishops-response-to-mandatory-child-sex-abuse-reporting-labelled-pig-headed
    Civil rights groups have filed a lawsuit to stop Alabama from implementing a law making abortion a crime at any stage of pregnancy. The lawsuit, brought by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and Planned Parenthood Federation of America on behalf of Alabama abortion providers, seeks to block the near-total abortion ban before it can take effect.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/may/24/alabama-abortion-ban-lawsuit-aclu-planned-parenthood

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe is inspired here by Whistler.

    Alan Moir and Labor’s position.

    From Matt Golding.






    Jim Pavlidis and media scrutiny.

    Andrew Dyson in the Labor change room.

    A postcard from Simon Letch.

    John Shakespeare’s election post mortem.

    Zanetti rubs it in.

    Sean Leahy and Albo’s “win”.

    Jon Kudelka and what the future holds.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/87116af62b13d8074eb4075e5a138866?width=1024

    From the US





  38. @FDOTM is being disingenuous here, the vast majority of Greens voters and supporters such as myself preferenced Labor ahead of the Coalition. Also they are the voters least swayed by how to vote cards.

    I was devasted when the Coalition won a week ago, I am still coming to terms with it. Because in my opinion this election result is like if Berne Sanders running on a milder version of his actual platform, winning the Democratic nomination only to be beaten by Trump on both the popular and electoral college vote.

  39. C@t,

    Sorry, D&M, but I read that FDotM cartoon and all I can say is that the guy is a naif and lives in cloud cuckoo land if he thinks that a combination of campaigning to turn Labor into The Greens and campaigning against the government in general will turn the electorate into Labor voting citizens with the scent of a better world in their nostrils, then he is more deluded than I originally thought.

    No one campaigned more than the Unions. No one campaigned harder and more openly for what was right for the greatest number of disadvantaged people in this country than Labor did, and then there were the Climate Kids. Basically, all the things that he is saying we need to do to win. Guess what? We lost to a bunch of liars and the lies they told.

    So what’s his solution to that!?!

    Totally agree with you! I was just wondering (whimsically) if he was having a go at me. I am the only person I have seen who had publicly criticised FDOTM – not that I have had the time to really say attention. I actually suspect he must have had a lot of criticism, and justifiably so. How he thinks telling people “Labor does not deserve your vote” helps the people he so passionately cares about is totally beyond me.

  40. phoenixRED @ #844 Saturday, May 25th, 2019 – 7:08 am

    Ex – NSA John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee

    Now, who would benefit from killing UKUSA, the world’s oldest and most successful intelligence partnership?

    President Donald Trump said Friday he wants Attorney General Bill Barr to take his investigation into the Russia probe global and examine events in Great Britain, Australia, and Ukraine.

    ‘It was an attempted coup or an attempted take down of the president of the United States. It should never ever happen to anybody else,’ Trump fumed as he left the White House en route to Japan.

    He explained his order granting Barr declassification authority and ordering the intelligence community to cooperate.

    ‘I’ve declassified everything. He can look,’ Trump said.

    ‘I hope he looks at the U.K. And I hope he looks at Australia. And I hope he looks at Ukraine. I hope he looks at everything. Because there was a hoax that was perpetrated on our country,’ Trump said.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7067941/Trump-says-confront-Theresa-Britains-role-spying-campaign.html?ito=rss-flipboard

    Dangerous Dictator.

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