BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

New state-level data finds a narrowing in Labor’s advantage, but also suggests the Coalition’s recovery has been too little, too late.

Since last week’s post dedicated to the current reading of BludgerTrack (which is being updated with new polling data as it becomes available), its measure of the situation is that Labor’s two-party preferred lead is effectively unchanged, but that it has gone backwards on the seat projection due to the distribution of the swing between the states. As ever, this reflects the intense electoral sensitivity of Queensland, which punches well above its weight in terms of marginal seats.

Last time I sounded a note of caution about its reading that Labor stood to gain eight seats there, which was quite out of line with the expectations of both major parties. Since then, we have had two pieces of state-level data that have taken the edge off – the Queensland-only poll by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail last week, which showed the Coalition leading 51-49, and the Newspoll state breakdowns that had the Queensland result at 50-50. This has moderated the situation to the extent that Labor is now credited with only five gains in the state. Nonetheless, this is almost single-handedly sufficient to get them to a majority.

The encouragement for Labor doesn’t end there, because the Newspoll numbers have further boosted their reading in Victoria, where they are now projected to gain three seats from the Coalition, together with the electoral gift of the new seat of Fraser in their western Melbourne heartland. However, BludgerTrack is now showing a remarkable recovery for the Coalition in New South Wales, where they are actually projected to pick up a swing on two-party preferred, though without gaining any new seats. This is a little more favourable for them than the general impression, which is that they are likely to lose Gilmore and Reid while perhaps gaining Lindsay.

BludgerTrack also suggests the worst danger for the Coalition has passed in Western Australia, where they are now projected to lose only one seat. It also suggests the Liberals should be able to maintain the status quo in South Australia – or arguably slightly improve it, given it is Labor who will be wearing the cut in the state’s representation from 11 seats to 10. This notion was further encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll showing the Liberals maintaining a lead in Boothby, which is state’s strongest prospect of a gain for Labor.

However, it must be acknowledged here that there are a few holes in the BludgerTrack methodology, specifically relating to Tasmania and the territories, and non-major party contests. State-level data is only available for the five mainland states, so BludgerTrack has nothing to offer on the much-touted prospect of the Liberals gaining either or both of Bass and Braddon in the state’s north, where it is simply assumed that the swing will be in line with the overall national result. The same goes for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, which has been the subject of optimistic noises from the Coalition throughout the campaign. Whether such noises are justified remains anyone’s guess.

As for minor parties and independents, BludgerTrack simply assumes a status quo result, with Wentworth and Clark (formerly Denison) to remain with their independent incumbents, Indi to go from one independent to another, and Melbourne, Kennedy and Mayo to respectively remain with the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. I had hoped that media-commissioned seat polling might offer guidance here, but only in the case of Mayo has such a poll emerged. The consensus seems to be that Wentworth will return to the Liberals, that Indi could either stay independent or go with one or other Coalition party, and that the other seats should remain as they are.

The full BludgerTrack results at state-level, together with leadership rating trends and a database of poll results, can be found through the following link:

Not featured in BludgerTrack is the Roy Morgan series, which I decided came to party too late for its form to be properly calibrated. However, its latest weekly result is interesting in being the first national poll of the campaign period to record a move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. The poll now has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 38.5% (steady), Labor 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 4% (steady) and the United Australia Party 3.5% (steady). The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1265, which is larger than its other recent polls, which have been around the 700 to 800 mark.

Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Queensland seat of Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,540 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

  1. Re hell, I am struggling to see how people would not find it offensive to be told that they deserve to be, and will in fact be, horribly tortured because of who they are.

    What’s the difference between that and, say, a neo nazi telling Jews they are going to be exterminated?

    Neither is likely to happen, but both reveal an extreme level of hatred for a group of people based on a vile ideology.

  2. Something I just realised about Rowe’s latest cartoon is which side we the observers are on, and by extension which side the government isn’t on.
    How subtle is Rowe?

    Spoiler… meh, you’ve had two days.

    GoT S08E05 was filmed from that angle; yes, House Lannister were the “baddies”.

  3. In regards Facebook and a certain smear that there is concern about going viral. It would be picked up and shared by those who are voting RWNJ anyway. Those that are influenced by this were not going to vote progressive and would be celebrating this little ray of hope like PB’ers do pretty much every time Barnacle Joyce opens his stupid mouth..
    If it is “the big thing” in Murdoch land tomorrow then it will only sway RWNJ morons who still bother looking at that shite and don’t comprehend the bias.
    If it loses the election for Labor I would be surprised. More likely the Galilee Basin fruckup gas policy will cost primaries as climate change is the hot button in case no-one in Labor noticed.
    Foxtel broke – maybe a few layoffs no matter who wins election .. happy days …

  4. Confessions @ #1324 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:16 pm

    markjs @ #1299 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 8:04 pm

    Confessions says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 9:55 pm
    Jaeger:

    “It’s a clumsy effort by Amy. She can do better.”

    ..it’s a bluddy good effort by Amy, and spot on!!

    It’s a cheap shot by millennial Amy that essentially sweeps up high achieving 60 something white haired women like Gail Kelly in her generalisation. Do you really think that Gail Kelly can be compared with a lightweight celebrity like KAK?

    Amy wrote it directly after a quote of KAK’s ignorant diatribe, and meant the description, plainly, to apply to KAK and KAK alone. She simply identified KAK as a deadshit with no useful qualifications, knowledge or experience.

  5. Deakin with a 520 sample has a MOE of 4.29 assuming a 110,000 electorate

    The rest of the SmearStralian wanky procession tomorrow will have a similar MOE

  6. From the latest Labor email:

    “Steve —

    At midnight tonight, all political advertising in newspapers, TV and radio will stop.

    This means two things:
    1. We’ll never have to see the Clive Palmer ads on TV again.
    2. Everything comes down to our digital media campaign”

    Certainly Amen to point 1.
    As for point 2, when the bad guys go low, kick them in the nuts.

  7. Jaeger:

    Thanks. I think the problem is that retweets don’t translate well here when simply copied and pasted. I avoid posting retweets unless I can link to the original article or comment that was cited. Guytaur and lizzie have often gotten into a mess by copying and pasting without the original context if that makes you feel any better 🙂

  8. There’s probably a discount if you subscribe now.

    James Jeffrey @James_Jeffrey

    ScoMo’s church does not muck about: “We believe in the everlasting punishment of the wicked … We believe the devil and his angels and whoever is not found written in the book of life shall be consigned to everlasting punishment in the lake which burns with fire and brimstone”

  9. GetUp is “vile” according to one Tory letter writer in Adelaide. More like “insipid”.
    Wonder why it didn’t target Sturt?

  10. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 10:23 pm

    Fulvio Sammut @ #1327 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:20 pm

    What’s the point C@t, did he fail to number 3 to 6 at least, or am I as dumb as he was?

    That’s the point. The guy was as dumb as a box of hammers. He thought a valid vote was 1 for Clive and 2 for the Liberal Party. That’s all he wanted and so that’s all he did. We didn’t disabuse him of his idiocy.

    As I understand the Senate saving clause that is a valid vote, but it will exhaust when all the Palmer and Liberal candidates have been elected or excluded.

    The same if you just voted 1 for Molan, you vote would exhaust when he is no longer in the count.

  11. “Nowra is the jarring flaw in the exquisite gem that is its surrounds.”

    Nah. Nowra is a convenient place to stop at Coles, Woolies or Aldi before heading off to your final destination for a good long weekend.

  12. I have been talking about people going to hell but that was in relation to what others believe. I personally do not believe anyone is going to be tortured in hell for eternity.
    However if people genuinely believe that non-believers are going to be tortured for eternity and they love people then they should be out there as much as they possible can warning everyone and getting them to become believers.

  13. The same if you just voted 1 for Molan, you vote would exhaust when he is no longer in the count.

    Not so much. A single ‘1’ BTL will not be counted, it needs to have at least 1 to 6 in unambiguous order below the line to count. That’s the big risk of Molan’s strategy.

  14. Oh that’s not so bad then and I’m confident they can still win (Deakin and overall)! Disregard my earlier message (you already did lol)

  15. “GoT S08E05 was filmed from that angle; yes, House Lannister were the “baddies”.”

    Well, so we all thought.

    Then Dracarus! A petite platinum blonde sound her inner Stalin.

  16. And Barney (how long have you been back in Saigon?) a 1 below the line for Molan or anyone else is not enough. The saving clause for BTL votes (s 268A) only works if you’ve done 1 to 6.

  17. Jack Aranda @ #1365 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:43 pm

    Ummmm, C@t, if the guy voted 1 above the line for Clive’s party (which he might loosely describe as a 1 for Clive) and 2 for the Libs it would in fact be valid – see http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/s269.html

    Otoh, if he just put a 1 in Clive’s BTL box and then 2 in the Libs’ ATL box he is indeed dumb and has gloriously wasted his vote!

    Ah, so I imagine he voted ATL because Clive isn’t on the ballot in NSW.

  18. I think the problem is that retweets don’t translate well here when simply copied and pasted. I avoid posting retweets unless I can link to the original article or comment that was cited. Guytaur and lizzie have often gotten into a mess by copying and pasting without the original context if that makes you feel any better

    That’s true; I used to post a link when there were less fewer hoops to jump through.

  19. Well, so we all thought.

    Then Dracarus! A petite platinum blonde sound her inner Stalin.

    Stalin was a baddy once the other baddy was dealt with. #spoilers

  20. “Is there an image of the DT like the one of the Hun? “ Yes, under “today’s paper” at the bottom of the site. Not normally available on the site before midnight.

    “Presumably it will be anti Shorten to some extent.” Presumably the Sun will rise tomorrow.

  21. Progression of right wing commentary
    1. We will easy
    2. We will just win but it will be tight
    3. It will be a hung parliament, better talk with the cross bench
    4. Currently -Labor will win but only in minority government
    5. Next – would you believe Labor will win but it won’t be a wipeout – this one is closer to mark.

  22. I’d be literally and figuratively stunned if two days before an election… if the Murdoch shit-sheets didn’t have an anti-Labor front page.

  23. So looking at those ten Newspoll marginals tomorrow – 8 are Coalition and 2 are ALP.

    I tip that the 8 Coalition will show them leading in 3, tied in 3, and trailing 49-51 in 2 (La Trobe/Flynn)

    And in the two ALP-held marginals it will show Coalition ahead 51-49 (Gilmore and Herbert)

    The ‘vibe’ will be reported as Labor doing really well in tough seats like Deakin but not quite making it, while the Coalition hold onto marginals on tighter margins and nab a few from Labor.

    Therefore – by 7pm, able to claim that Morrison is heading for victory on Saturday.

  24. It is true that Nowra hasn’t taken full advantage of the mighty Shoalhaven River’s course through its middle, but that will come in time, and has probably helped the local coast remain less swamped by tourism. The town does have plenty of destination activities too – an excellent zoo, a challenging outdoor obstacle course, the River, the Boyd family farm “Bundanon” inter alia
    AND soon to be the first seat to turn red with a sweeping change of government.

  25. Jaeger @ #1346 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:31 pm

    Something I just realised about Rowe’s latest cartoon is which side we the observers are on, and by extension which side the government isn’t on.
    How subtle is Rowe?

    Spoiler… meh, you’ve had two days.

    GoT S08E05 was filmed from that angle; yes, House Lanister were the “baddies”.

    If I have to watch GoT to get the cartoon it’s not a smart cartoon. I haven’t.

  26. If you are voting BTL you need to number 1 to 12. Not 1 to 6.

    If you are voting ATL you can number 1 to 6 as a minimum.

    Fine for the states; cruel and unnecessary punishment for the territories…
    I suspect ATL voting will be the most popular option in the territories.

  27. Will be interesting to see where GetUp go. I think what they need to show this election is that they can get volunteer boots on the ground doing real things with real people.

    That’s what terrifies the RWFW’s. 🙂

    They HATE the idea that GetUp isn’t an Astro-Turfing operation but is shaping up to be something more grassroots.

    Me, i’ll throw my small contribution behind the ALP / Unions as campaigners. But i respect GetUp’s efforts.

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