BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

New state-level data finds a narrowing in Labor’s advantage, but also suggests the Coalition’s recovery has been too little, too late.

Since last week’s post dedicated to the current reading of BludgerTrack (which is being updated with new polling data as it becomes available), its measure of the situation is that Labor’s two-party preferred lead is effectively unchanged, but that it has gone backwards on the seat projection due to the distribution of the swing between the states. As ever, this reflects the intense electoral sensitivity of Queensland, which punches well above its weight in terms of marginal seats.

Last time I sounded a note of caution about its reading that Labor stood to gain eight seats there, which was quite out of line with the expectations of both major parties. Since then, we have had two pieces of state-level data that have taken the edge off – the Queensland-only poll by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail last week, which showed the Coalition leading 51-49, and the Newspoll state breakdowns that had the Queensland result at 50-50. This has moderated the situation to the extent that Labor is now credited with only five gains in the state. Nonetheless, this is almost single-handedly sufficient to get them to a majority.

The encouragement for Labor doesn’t end there, because the Newspoll numbers have further boosted their reading in Victoria, where they are now projected to gain three seats from the Coalition, together with the electoral gift of the new seat of Fraser in their western Melbourne heartland. However, BludgerTrack is now showing a remarkable recovery for the Coalition in New South Wales, where they are actually projected to pick up a swing on two-party preferred, though without gaining any new seats. This is a little more favourable for them than the general impression, which is that they are likely to lose Gilmore and Reid while perhaps gaining Lindsay.

BludgerTrack also suggests the worst danger for the Coalition has passed in Western Australia, where they are now projected to lose only one seat. It also suggests the Liberals should be able to maintain the status quo in South Australia – or arguably slightly improve it, given it is Labor who will be wearing the cut in the state’s representation from 11 seats to 10. This notion was further encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll showing the Liberals maintaining a lead in Boothby, which is state’s strongest prospect of a gain for Labor.

However, it must be acknowledged here that there are a few holes in the BludgerTrack methodology, specifically relating to Tasmania and the territories, and non-major party contests. State-level data is only available for the five mainland states, so BludgerTrack has nothing to offer on the much-touted prospect of the Liberals gaining either or both of Bass and Braddon in the state’s north, where it is simply assumed that the swing will be in line with the overall national result. The same goes for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, which has been the subject of optimistic noises from the Coalition throughout the campaign. Whether such noises are justified remains anyone’s guess.

As for minor parties and independents, BludgerTrack simply assumes a status quo result, with Wentworth and Clark (formerly Denison) to remain with their independent incumbents, Indi to go from one independent to another, and Melbourne, Kennedy and Mayo to respectively remain with the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. I had hoped that media-commissioned seat polling might offer guidance here, but only in the case of Mayo has such a poll emerged. The consensus seems to be that Wentworth will return to the Liberals, that Indi could either stay independent or go with one or other Coalition party, and that the other seats should remain as they are.

The full BludgerTrack results at state-level, together with leadership rating trends and a database of poll results, can be found through the following link:

Not featured in BludgerTrack is the Roy Morgan series, which I decided came to party too late for its form to be properly calibrated. However, its latest weekly result is interesting in being the first national poll of the campaign period to record a move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. The poll now has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 38.5% (steady), Labor 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 4% (steady) and the United Australia Party 3.5% (steady). The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1265, which is larger than its other recent polls, which have been around the 700 to 800 mark.

Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Queensland seat of Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,540 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

  1. “The ‘vibe’ will be reported as Labor doing really well in tough seats like Deakin but not quite making it, ”

    Fine, but ALP should still get value from campaigning hard in that kind of seat as far as Senate vote is concerned. Fight hard and Everywhere you can. 🙂

  2. In case you haven’t heard it before over the last decade or so, Kevin Donnelly gets out his favourite song-sheet again in The Australian – (google tricked)

    A Labor win will have come from the classrooms.

    If the Coalition government is defeate­d on Saturday and Bill Shorten becomes prime minister next week, there’s no doubt Australia’s ­education system will be a major reason.

    As a result of the cultural Left’s dominance of the education ­system since the 1970s and 80s, ­students have been taught that societ­y is riven with injustice and inequality, that unless urgent actio­n is taken the environment is doomed, and that Western civilisation is oppressive and guilty of white supremacism.

    The challenge for the centre-right side of politics if Shorten becomes prime minister is how to address the fact Australia’s education system has long since promoted an ideology that is the antithesis to its more conservative political philosophy.

    A good place to start is to acknowled­ge that, while the econom­y and issues around productivity and border protection are important, even more importa­nt is to engage in the ­culture wars and to win the battle of ideas.

    Surely the simplest solution is for like-minded people to give up their highly-paid jobs in business or writing for The Australian and become teachers. Maybe all the defeated Coalition MPs could do this. An added bonus is that they are mostly men, and like Kevin Donnelly many of them over the years have bemoaned the lack of male teachers.

    I wonder if working on a teacher’s wages might change some of their attitudes though? Because if it did, and they became more aware of issues such as multiculturalism and social disadvantage that could be really dangerous and it may even defeat the purpose of this ‘takeover’ of education to win the so-called ‘culture wars’.

  3. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 10:23 pm

    Fulvio Sammut @ #1327 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:20 pm

    What’s the point C@t, did he fail to number 3 to 6 at least, or am I as dumb as he was?

    That’s the point. The guy was as dumb as a box of hammers. He thought a valid vote was 1 for Clive and 2 for the Liberal Party. That’s all he wanted and so that’s all he did. We didn’t disabuse him of his idiocy.

    So you think they have a right to harass and try and impose their shit on people whose lifestyles don’t conform with what they think is right.

    I will not say or do anything to stop them practicing their religion in their buildings, but come outside and start pushing it, fuck off!

    As for gays, they’re basically saying, stop being who you are.

    Live a lie!

    Society is progressing to where they no longer need to live a lie to be included.

  4. Late Riser
    says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 11:06 pm
    Jaeger @ #1398 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:59 pm
    If I have to watch GoT to get the cartoon it’s not a smart cartoon. I haven’t.
    Oh well… I guess there’s always Zanetti.
    OK. I can learn. Which side is Lanister? And why are they “baddies”.
    ___________________________________
    The Lannisters control the West, they enjoy power, gold, incest and vengeance.

  5. nath @ #1408 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 11:08 pm

    Late Riser
    says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 11:06 pm
    Jaeger @ #1398 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:59 pm
    If I have to watch GoT to get the cartoon it’s not a smart cartoon. I haven’t.
    Oh well… I guess there’s always Zanetti.
    OK. I can learn. Which side is Lanister? And why are they “baddies”.
    ___________________________________
    The Lannisters control the West, they enjoy power, gold, incest and vengeance.

    Interpreting this, so Morrison’s troops are the Lannisters? What does Jaeger mean by putting quotes around the word baddies?

  6. ltep

    I am really hopeful that Shireen Morris will win Deakin for Labor – she would make an excellent addition to the Parliament. I think the margin is very close. I think the Liberals have given up in Chisholm and have been redirecting resources to Deakin.

    The redistribution took the margin from 5.7% to 6.4% as it lost some to Chisholm and gained some from Menzies and Casey which were both better for the Liberals than Chisholm.

    It is going to be very frustrating if Labor get a swing between 5.7 and 6.4 – before the redistribution I was very confident, now more like 50-50. But there are still two more days to go, and no more ads on TV.

  7. Late Riser
    says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 11:11 pm
    nath @ #1408 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 11:08 pm
    Late Riser
    says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 11:06 pm
    Jaeger @ #1398 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:59 pm
    If I have to watch GoT to get the cartoon it’s not a smart cartoon. I haven’t.
    Oh well… I guess there’s always Zanetti.
    OK. I can learn. Which side is Lanister? And why are they “baddies”.
    ___________________________________
    The Lannisters control the West, they enjoy power, gold, incest and vengeance.
    Interpreting this, so Morrison’s troops are the Lannisters? What does Jaeger mean by putting quotes around the word baddies?
    ____________________
    Because sometimes bad guys can look good by comparison with other bad guys.

  8. Donnelly hasn’t seen the inside of a classroom for a very, very long time. He certainly has a crap knowledge of what actually happens in public schools, at least.

    His inputs into the national education debate have varied between stridently ideological and batshit crazy.

    Thankfully, although he has been a goto person for many Liberal attempts at winning culture wars in classrooms, his bombast and innate ineptitude has kept us educators mostly safe from his influence.

  9. “As a result of the cultural Left’s dominance of the education ­system since the 1970s and 80s…

    Kevin Donnelly thinks that the education system should model itself on Newscrap.

    Of course, no one who thinks that the great god money is the ultimate purpose of all human endeavour goes into teaching.

  10. Jack Aranda says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 10:47 pm

    And Barney (how long have you been back in Saigon?) a 1 below the line for Molan or anyone else is not enough. The saving clause for BTL votes (s 268A) only works if you’ve done 1 to 6.

    I thought I read that they would allow a vote to stand while the voters intent was clear, maybe not?

    As for Saigon, I’ve been back for just over a week. Needed to vote and tidy up a few things and then … 🙂

  11. nath, thank you for humouring me. I can feel a well opening up, you don’t have to reply. If you mean worse than Morrison, I think I get the moral.

  12. Robert Lee

    I have many times been told by non-teachers what an easy job teaching would be, often by people also complaining about teachers ‘indoctrinating’ their students with socialist ideals.

    I generally respond by telling them they need to ‘give up all they have, and follow teaching’ – firstly because of that ‘easy’ lifestyle, and secondly because they can reverse the leftist indoctrination!

    …crickets…

  13. Late Riser
    says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 11:20 pm
    nath, thank you for humouring me. I can feel a well opening up, you don’t have to reply. If you mean worse than Morrison, I think I get the moral.’
    _______________________________
    The cartoon has only a very loose relevance to the show. It’s just a theme to hang it on. I really think he just wanted to get that image of Dutton in there and just worked around that. 🙂

  14. What does Jaeger mean by putting quotes around the word baddies?

    An oblique reference to Abbott’s “goodies” and “baddies” speech.

    Beyond that, ask me next week. #spoilers

  15. Victoria looks like it will be crash-central for the Lib-Libs.

    Excellent.

    I also think Queensland Labor know how to run a field campaign. Queensland is gonna be ok for Labor.

    We will win at least a couple in WA. We’ve done the work in the places that can move to us. We will prevail at least in Pearce and Swan.

    So we should win. A win is a win is a win.

    And in addition, the Lib-Libs will likely lose seats to their Indy-echoes. This will lead to further division in their ranks…also good for Labor.

    This election is reminiscent of 2007. The union movement have stood up and stood out. They can move opinion. They’re heroes.

    The Kib-kin will be filled with remorse. They will be even more dejected than the Lib-Libs and the other clones.

  16. Most of this “leftist classroom indoctrination” is basic respect for others which then allows the classroom to function effectively.

    What a horrible thing to then take out into Society!

  17. Jaeger

    That is very interesting. I am especially interested in volcanic eruptions where there is a local indigenous record such as Mount Gambier. But those two in the article – it is hard to imagine what would be the consequences in the modern world were something like them to happen near a mega-city today.

  18. News Corp are very close to losing their licence to defame. If Labor win well enough they can be run out of the country. They have been putting themselves at risk. They could be shut down. None would miss them.

  19. Labor’s $25m Cowboys pledge with good photo of Cathy O’Toole and JT on Townsville Bulletin front page and Elton John opening new Townsville Stadium!

  20. Rocket,

    Like we have time to be indoctrinating the little blighters in the joys of a Socialist utopia.

    Between a curriculum that just keeps getting bigger and broader, to keeping the little buggers at their desks, to differentiating across 8 years of development in one classroom, and to meeting the paperwork requirements, propagandising is way down the list.

    Unlike private schools, where it is the reason for their existence, it simply doesn’t happen.

  21. Rocket – Do you think the East-West Link, 50,000 posters (though none in any shop-front windows this time) and more pork than is cooked in his bbq photos for sports clubs will get Sukkar close to or across the line?
    Surely abstaining from voting from SSM & being Duttons numbers man should have seen a black line drawn through his name or do I inhabit a different part of the electorate?

  22. Alpha Zero
    says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 11:33 pm
    Rocket – Do you think the East-West Link, 50,000 posters (though none in any shop-front windows this time) and more pork than is cooked in his bbq photos for sports clubs will get Sukkar close to or across the line?
    Surely abstaining from voting from SSM & being Duttons numbers man should have seen a black line drawn through his name or do I inhabit a different part of the electorate?
    _______________________________
    Honestly, why would Deakin voters care about a tunnel 20ks away from their electorate. It would have minimal impact on them unless they want to get to the air port quicker.

  23. NE Qld
    says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 11:36 pm
    Anyway, sorry for false alarm. Pretty benign front pages tomorrow. As you were.
    _____________
    it’s not over yet.

  24. Alpha Zero

    I think his multi-storey carparks at railway stations were a turn-off.

    I think the East-West Link has been flogged to death, and most people realise that with the North-East Link being built no-one is going to be doing the East-West Link in the foreseeable future (you wouldn’t have enough workforce). Also it is becoming reminiscent of Phil Baressi’s “No tolls for the Scoresby” – eventually people just turn off.

    They hid Sukkar during the state campaign – probably a wise move.

    I am really hopeful but I have this annoying feeling the redistribution may just save him.

  25. The Lib-Lib lies are intense. I suppose they need to be. Voters discount politics very steeply. A very large number of voters not only say they are not interested, they actually are not interested. They could not give a rats about the claims and the theatre that comprise political exchange. So hyperbowl is the default…and in turn this simply accentuates alienation.

    Thence the incredible exaggerations and degeneracy.

    Politics is self-destructive in Australia.

  26. As an atheist, I simply understand a Christian’s assertion that X is “going to hell” as a shorthand way for them to say they “hate what X is/does and want them to suffer for it”. Speaks volumes about the character of such Christians, obviously. But says nothing of any metaphysical significance.

  27. NE Qld
    says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 11:40 pm
    True, coming up ‘what’s making news online’!
    ___________________
    The fat fool did say a front page. so who knows.

  28. Nath,

    You have answered the question there in the 1 line. People out here are wedded to their cars and can visualise no other way of getting places. 5 minutes quicker to the airport once or twice a year…

    Deakin gets all the benefit and zero of the pain too. Hence the 2014 state election had swings to the liberals in the East because they were sold the lie that the East-West link is the bees knees…

  29. Good night all – only twenty minutes left of ads on the East Coast!

    I go to bed wishing for an early morning Essential Poll – just to trump the Newspoll “marginals marathon”!

    William – if there is no early morning Essential or Ipsos I think this drawn-out series by Newspoll gives you your heading tomorrow.

    It will certainly keep me focused on my watch at work.

  30. You’d think Deakin voters would be gaga over Shorten putting 10 bill into Melb rail loop. It means they can change at Box Hill and be all over Melb in 45mins. Perhaps it’s just too long away.

  31. Bateman

    the doctrine of hell is more insidious and perverse than extermination

    or even torture

    the latter are finite, time constrained – the former invokes neverending punishment

    it can be intepreted that an ancient jewish belief in hell was abolished on the new testament – the christian church is not entitled to invoke it as they do lately and a lot – it is simply not a christian teaching, and when used is a form of hate speech that should be banned in public domain and education, esp in state funded or subsidised entities –

  32. Michael A @ #1438 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 11:41 pm

    As an atheist, I simply understand a Christian’s assertion that X is “going to hell” as a shorthand way for them to say they “hate what X is/does and want them to suffer for it”. Speaks volumes about the character of such Christians, obviously. But says nothing of any metaphysical significance.

    I actually don’t mind that they think X, Y, and/or Z are all going to hell. If they could do that but agree to live and let live, I’d have no issue.

    What bothers me is that Christians overzealous religious people from a variety of faiths think their belief that X/Y/Z is a sinful/hellbound state/activity entitles them to intervene (and not just that they’re entitled to intervene, but that their intervention is an intrinsically good/responsible/justified thing) and outlaw/suppress/modify X/Y/Z. Virtually always with atrocious results.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *