Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019

Aggregated state breakdowns from Newspoll suggest solid swings in Victoria and Queensland will tip a close result in Labor’s favour.

No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.

The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.

Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.

Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019”

  1. Spence @ #665 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 7:39 pm

    Growler – the Senate vote for minor parties is not affected that much by HTVs at booths now that party names on are ballot. ON didn’t have people at heaps of booths in 2016 in SA at least. Still got 3% of first preferences in Senate.

    Sure, the reason that Parties spend thouasnds of dollars on HTVs and have teams of people distributing them on Election day is because they have no impact.

  2. Some Liberal member from Kooyong who has been doing pre-polling rang into 3AW earlier this evening deeply concerned at the number of people taking only a Greens how to vote (that is, for Julian Burnside against Frydenberg) and saying he’s very worried Josh will lose the seat.

  3. Hamish Macdonald on the Project doing good work again.

    FOI search indicates Coalition approval of Adani two days before election is very shonky. They claimed decision recommended by CSIRO and (??) but FOI documents indicate public service was forced to make a very rushed appraisal of the matter without a proper consideration.

    Apparently matter being pursued by Greens.

    (Apologies for sketchy report but I’ve been elsewhere detained!)

  4. citizen:

    Appreciate the update. One of the things that has become apparent is that some of the best political journalism in this country has come from the unlikeliest of outlets. David Speers on Sky News and Hamish MacDonald on Ch10.

  5. Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 7:45 pm
    Bushfire Bill @ #677 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 7:44 pm

    Why feed the Nath Thing?

    What’s a nath?
    ———————————————————————————-
    I Pea-Beau a Nath a day to keep them away.

  6. WOW, nath!

    Who’d think that a Government would go after whistleblowers!

    I would never support such actions in Australia, Vietnam or anywhere else.

    I’m a guest in this Country, I see the need for change, but it’s for the Vietnamese to pursue such a course of action and at the moment sense little call for such.

  7. Growler – actually the money spent on HTVs by parties is excessive. Generally on booths now lucky if half of people take HTVs. Many just take the one they want. Maybe a quarter of people take most HTVs but as much out of politeness or to avoid being tagged as voting a certain way. Plenty of boxes of HTVs seem to end up in the recycling system. One of the most common exchanges on booths is what a waste of paper is involved.

    Having people on booths is a great part of democracy, showing voters there is popular support for party etc. And often helpful with preference suggestions. But majority would be completely unaffected by HTVs not being available.

  8. Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 7:50 pm
    WOW, nath!

    Who’d think that a Government would go after whistleblowers!

    I would never support such actions in Australia, Vietnam or anywhere else.

    I’m a guest in this Country, I see the need for change, but it’s for the Vietnamese to pursue such a course of action and at the moment sense little call for such.
    ———————————————————————————-
    Well said Barney – I too am a guest and well put sir.

  9. Re the project/Adani
    ABCradio news at 6AM this morning was running the FOI stuff on Adani and Price/ Morrison lying about CSIRO advice. Not sure if it was ABC research or not, but out long before the Project, but good on them ( project) for getting it out to a different audience.

  10. “Some Liberal member from Kooyong who has been doing pre-polling rang into 3AW earlier this evening deeply concerned at the number of people taking only a Greens how to vote (that is, for Julian Burnside against Frydenberg) and saying he’s very worried Josh will lose the seat.”

    I would take next to zero notice of such talk back callers

  11. they weren’t whistle blowers. they were just market vendors who said something critical of the gov:

    Both market vendors, the two women are the latest to face harsh blowback for publicly opposing the cybersecurity law, which would require internet companies to hand over user data and remove content if requested by the government.

  12. Spence @ #685 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 7:53 pm

    Growler – actually the money spent on HTVs by parties is excessive. Generally on booths now lucky if half of people take HTVs. Many just take the one they want. Maybe a quarter of people take most HTVs but as much out of politeness or to avoid being tagged as voting a certain way. Plenty of boxes of HTVs seem to end up in the recycling system. One of the most common exchanges on booths is what a waste of paper is involved.

    Having people on booths is a great part of democracy, showing voters there is popular support for party etc. And often helpful with preference suggestions. But majority would be completely unaffected by HTVs not being available.

    Absolute bollocks!

  13. shiftaling says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 7:38 pm

    I’m pretty sure Barney outed himself here as a fellow elector for the seat of Sturt, I might be wrong though.

    You most certainly are, I could never have grown up so far from the beach.

    Boothby’s my patch, just a short ride from Somerton Beach! 🙂

  14. Speaking of Essential, here is the full list of guesses so far. Until the missing (or is it lost) poll is found feel free to “have a go(TM)” and I’ll be back later to harvest your guess. 🙂

    PB-Guess: Essential

    Median: ALP 52.0 to 48.0 LNP
    Mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    Mean: ALP 52.4 to 47.6 LNP
    SD: 1.2
    No. Of PB Respondents: 42

    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 a r *until the election
    52 / 48 Andrew_Earlwood *all polls
    53 / 47 autocrat *for the duration
    52 / 48 BK
    53 / 47 Burgey
    54 / 46 d-money *all the way to the election
    53 / 47 Dan Gulberry *permanent
    52 / 48 Davidwh
    52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
    51 / 49 Expat *all remaining polls before D-Day
    52 / 48 Fozzie Logic *until May 17
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    53 / 47 Gecko
    51 / 49 Geetroit *until the big day
    53 / 47 Goll *until the election
    52 / 48 Gorks
    52 / 48 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    52 / 48 John Reidy
    53 / 47 Just Quietly
    57 / 43 KayJay *all next polls
    52 / 48 Kirky
    50 / 50 Late Riser
    50 / 50 ltep
    52 / 48 Matt31
    52 / 48 max
    53 / 47 Onebobsworth
    52 / 48 Outsider *Newspoll, ER and Ipsos
    53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
    55 / 45 Question *until the election
    52 / 48 Red13 *up to an including 18/5/19
    53 / 47 Scott
    52 / 48 Simon² Katich® *eternal
    53 / 47 sonar *permanent
    51 / 49 Steve777 *any remains polls before the big day
    53 / 47 sustainable future
    50 / 50 Tetsujin *next set of polls
    53 / 47 Tricot *any polls
    52 / 48 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Voice endeavour
    51 / 49 Work To Rule *rest of the week
    53 / 47 Yabba
    52 / 48 Zoidlord *polls and final outcome

  15. I see that Greens candidate who posted Sept 11 truther shit on Facebook has gone. How many candidates is that now? Must be a record this close to the election.

  16. When is Shorten doing his second 730 interview of the campaign? I presume one of the leaders will be tomorrow, the other Thursday.

  17. C@tmomma @ #1038 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 7:35 pm

    Confessions @ #1012 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 7:24 pm

    C@t:

    Out of curiosity, how did you wrangle an invite to that group chat?

    I wasn’t the only one from our team it seems. Looks like they just rang everyone in the seat on their mobile phone and if you answered and didn’t hang up when you heard ‘ScoMo’s’ voice, then you were included! 😆

    Cat, I have been standing within three metres of Jilly Pilon for five of the last seven days pre-poll, and I can report that maybe ten men, or couples, have talked to her about negative gearing, all of whom were rusted ons. She is looking exhausted. Started out on Day 1 with careful makeup, and nicely done hair. Now, just frazzled looking.

    There are a couple of minders around her all of the time, one of whom has anger management issues, and almost came to blows with an old codger ( a bit like me, but not me), who took exception to the lies on some of their A frames, and told her so. Emma doesn’t have, or need, minders. It is notable that, at day’s end, the two Lib minders pack up all of the Liberal, Palmer and Jim Molan stuff, and stow it in the polling place, while we look after our own. It appears that the Molan clique are strong in the local Lib powers-that-be, and that the Palmer/Lib are closely intertwined.

    It is quite fun in the morning. We wait until they place their A frames, then carefully position ours so that they obscure theirs. Small things amuse ….

  18. Just saw two political ads with a positive message and no mention of the opposition. Amazing. They were both Liberal ads. Mind you they both had Morrison speaking.

  19. I’ve visited Britain when Thatcher was in power, Indonesia when Soeharto was in power, China while the current regime is in power, USA during Trump’s presidency, a day in East Berlin when the wall was in place.

    Please forgive me for not helping to overthrow each of these regimes.

  20. It will be interesting to see If Morrison is the leader of the opposition ,when parliament resumes after this saturday , i am backing a smokie to be the leader of the opposition Kevin Andrews

  21. Scott – a please let it be Kevin Bloody Andrews. A man who is beyond delusions of adequacy and in a state of parallel-universe-adequacy.

  22. citizen says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 8:07 pm

    I’ve visited Britain when Thatcher was in power, Indonesia when Soeharto was in power, China while the current regime is in power, USA during Trump’s presidency, a day in East Berlin when the wall was in place.

    Please forgive me for not helping to overthrow each of these regimes.
    ____________________________
    I personally have a rule against visiting one party states, unless I am acting as a plenipotentiary of the Queen.

  23. On next Essential poll suggestion on Guardian site more poll results on Thursday. This I assume will be at least the Essential poll

  24. Here’s a great photo of Shorten from last Sunday in a amongst a huge crowd.

    Morrison cancelled a street walk in Launceston today because there were about 20 protestors.

  25. BK @ #1006 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 7:16 pm

    Kristina Keneally has had a good dip here!.
    “To be quite clear,
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    – the Pope doesn’t think gay people go to hell, nor does the Catholic Church teach that.
    Also, unlike you, a majority of Catholics in Australia voted for marriage equality. “

    I have one comment only on Morrison’s religion; I’m as anti-religion as anyone, but Labor strategists have rocks in their heads if they think there are any votes to be won by going after the PM’s faith. There are dozens of legitimate grievances that can be leveled against Morrison and the Coalition government. That Morrison is a religious nutter isn’t one of them.

    Labor should not be mentioning hell, Christianity, or Israel Folau (or the other Israel) until at least May 19th. All of those topics are unnecessary lose-lose scenarios for them, and they’re idiots if they don’t see it.

  26. I got this email sometime today

    Hello Good Day,

    How are you today, my name is Mr Alexander Downer, I am from Australia.
    did you receive the email I sent you last week.pleas reply me back is
    urgent for business interest,

    Reply me on this Email: downeralexander (numbers) @gmail.com
    Best regards
    Mr Alexander Downer

    Mayo obviously not going well!

  27. Bushfire Bill says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 7:44 pm
    Why feed the Nath Thing?

    _____________________________________________
    Not sure they can help it BB, I’ve taught kids who , having reasonable ability and some hope of success, but placed in a class with a student who has behaviour problems they can’t help themselves and usually provoke and /or reinforce the bad behaviour. Never understood it but I’m seeing it here too.

  28. Dog’s Breakfast says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 8:21 pm

    Bushfire Bill says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 7:44 pm
    Why feed the Nath Thing?

    _____________________________________________
    Not sure they can help it BB, I’ve taught kids who , having reasonable ability and some hope of success, but placed in a class with a student who has behaviour problems they can’t help themselves and usually provoke and /or reinforce the bad behaviour.
    _______________________
    The phrase ‘Nath is extremely disruptive in class’ was written a few times. And most memorably ‘manipulating class sentiment in riotous directions’. 🙂

  29. I take most HTV’s to see who is preferencing who and to see who puts Coalition above Labor.

    Then it’s 1 Labor, 2 Green; 3, 4.. those putting Labor ahead; last Liberal; second last, etc those who preference Liberal above Labor.

  30. but Labor strategists have rocks in their heads if they think there are any votes to be won by going after the PM’s faith.

    +1

  31. Hi William,
    Just noticed Lindsay has LNP incumbency loss. Surely Husar was Labor incumbency loss which would shift the Bludgertrack -1 Labor for NSW?
    Thanks for all your good work.

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