Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019

Aggregated state breakdowns from Newspoll suggest solid swings in Victoria and Queensland will tip a close result in Labor’s favour.

No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.

The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.

Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.

Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019”

  1. Yes, the idea is to preference until you can’t distinguish between equally bad choices. I tried explaining this to my mother but she said they’re all equally bad. She had a point but one has to hold their nose.

  2. Rocket Rocket @ #623 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 1:45 pm

    JM

    Thanks for the update.

    Cheers.

    The Territory elections we experienced in Alice and Darwin were a lot of fun.

    Some weird politics up here. We spawned Mark Textor, for example.

    OTOH, I saw democracy in full glorious flight when the voters told Shane Stone to get stuffed over his naked power-grab rewrite of the statehood referendum, a rejection which by all accounts left him a stunned babbling wreck for a few hours on the night of the count, and effectively ended his NT political career. Wish I’d been in the room to see it. 🙂

    Less happy memories include having to help pour Jack Doolan into a car to take him off to dry out, yet again. I learned what serious alcos smell like from him. 🙁

  3. Just voted , basically against Tony . This will be the first time in my life that I’ve had a chance in this seat to make a difference.

  4. pithicus @ #980 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 6:42 pm

    secularism is very important to me, and the religiosity of candidates influences my vote more than just about anything. Secularism promotes a better society. Less polarised, more scientifically aware.
    Julia Gillards atheism sent a message world wide that politics and atheism can co-exist.
    I am probably in the minority but.

    ..but not alone.

    +1

  5. Hi Bludgers. Long time lurker, first time poster here.

    4 more days…looking forward to enjoying a spiced rum and coke on Saturday night while the metaphorical shredder obliterates Abbots headshot on TV.

    I live in Wayne Swan’s former electorate, Lilley, and was feeling pretty confident with how our ALP campaign was going. However. I’m pretty sure I was just robo push polled. Had the usual questions on voting intention, then had to listen to recordings of Labor’s campaign promises to see if I agreed or disagreed. Should I take this as a sign that head office is concerned about this seat?

  6. mikehilliard @ #973 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 6:33 pm

    William

    The age distribution chart for Sydney is my favourite.

    Amazing, any ideas why there are soo many young people. It’s great as it’s my seat & I have three kids so doing my bit!

    Because Sydney Uni and UTS are in it. Lots of colleges, Halls of Residence, 3 to a room student houses. Older residents tend to be pretty well off, apart from the homeless, of which there plenty. Lots of middle aged gay couples, who own nice terraces, worth $2.5 million.

    My younger daughter, at Sydney Uni, is a first time voter there.

  7. Kristina Keneally has had a good dip here!.
    “To be quite clear,
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    – the Pope doesn’t think gay people go to hell, nor does the Catholic Church teach that.
    Also, unlike you, a majority of Catholics in Australia voted for marriage equality. “

  8. Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 6:53 pm

    nath says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 6:45 pm

    markjs says:
    ..so go your hardest ..keep repeating your utter sh*te ..it only hardens my view that your lot are sh*t scared of Bill Shorten, the greatest strategic leader this country has seen in a long, long time..
    _________________
    I agree with you in a way. He’s so cunning he’s convinced you that Rudd is to blame for the coup against Gillard!!!! But who do you blame for the one against Rudd???? Bill was behind both of them.

    I think I see your logic now.

    Shorten’s level of fuckwittery is such, that it is only obvious to another f#ckwit!

    Only a f#ckwit would believe that.
    ____________________________________
    Barney, you are not even voting here. Why don’t you concern yourself with Vietnamese elections? Oh wait… you are a supporter and apologist of the Vietnamese one party state dictatorship. I hope you are enjoying your trip in a nation where democracy activists are imprisoned and killed. Happy travels.

  9. Interesting, Sportsbet has suspended betting on the outcome in the seat of Herbert – any idea what’s going on there?
    Two interesting tibits from NSW, in terms of betting – In Wentworth, Kerryn Phelps has improved from 7.50 to 4.50 in 2 days, in Robertson the Liberals have eased back to 2.90

  10. BK:

    KK is a christian of the Mayor Pete variety: using religious beliefs and understanding of the bible to actually promote inclusion and tolerance, rather than fear and division.

  11. …in Robertson the Liberals have eased back to 2.90

    Reports to me are that the biggest Pre Poll booth in Robertson is looking like about 10 to 1 Labor cf Liberal. 😯

  12. The 2gb hacks have conceded they are upset and in tears because the Australian public is not falling for their propaganda against Labor/Shorten.

  13. Some posters have criticised or commented on polls including ON in Victoria for example when they only have a few candidates, also Centre Alliance.

    I think it is quite helpful to get a statewide picture. Particularly related to Senate given there are next to no polls on Senate voting. If 3 or 4 % of people in Victoria support ON as first priority we can extrapolate that to get a picture.

    It also helps polling in between elections when the pollsters wont have any idea of whether candidates will be nominated.

    Just asking for ON support in seats they are standing in would produce a very skewed view of people’s thinking.

  14. The betting in Wentworth indicates to me that Kerryn Phelps isn’t as much of a write off as people in here were claiming on the weekend, I’d certainly still watch the seat on Saturday night.

  15. Evan says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 7:19 pm
    Interesting, Sportsbet has suspended betting on the outcome in the seat of Herbert – any idea what’s going on there?

    ————————————–

    Has some one placed a $22.22 bet ?

  16. News Ltd are publishing on line this Thursday – from 10am on the hour every hour – polling by YouGov Galaxy of what they say are the ten seats which will determine the result. That makes 7 pm their last call.

  17. William
    The age distribution chart for Sydney is my favourite.

    Severe distortion caused by Sydney Uni & UTS residential students ..

  18. Second uComms robopoll in two days. Do you think they counted me twice? In Herbert. Question on whether or when I am voting and two on the issues that matter to me most. Plus voting intention.

  19. nath says:

    ____________________________________
    Barney, you are not even voting here. Why don’t you concern yourself with Vietnamese elections? Oh wait… you are a supporter and apologist of the Vietnamese one party state dictatorship. I hope you are enjoying your trip in a nation where democracy activists are imprisoned and killed. Happy travels.

    Typical, pathetic ignorance!

  20. Spence @ #644 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 7:25 pm

    Some posters have criticised or commented on polls including ON in Victoria for example when they only have a few candidates, also Centre Alliance.

    I think it is quite helpful to get a statewide picture. Particularly related to Senate given there are next to no polls on Senate voting. If 3 or 4 % of people in Victoria support ON as first priority we can extrapolate that to get a picture.

    It also helps polling in between elections when the pollsters wont have any idea of whether candidates will be nominated.

    Just asking for ON support in seats they are standing in would produce a very skewed view of people’s thinking.

    Rubbish, if ON are not handing out HTVs in 35 seats in Victoria, their vote will be bugger all Senate votes.
    If ON are not running candidates in seats their Primary at the election is going to be zilch. Logically that means this assumed vote gets absorbed by the candidates that do turn up.

  21. Al Pal says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 7:26 pm
    News Ltd are publishing on line this Thursday – from 10am on the hour every hour – polling by YouGov Galaxy of what they say are the ten seats which will determine the result. That makes 7 pm their last call.

    ———————–

    What will happen if they get enough 1st preferences quota for Labor ? will they shut it down?

  22. Confessions @ #1012 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 7:24 pm

    C@t:

    Out of curiosity, how did you wrangle an invite to that group chat?

    I wasn’t the only one from our team it seems. Looks like they just rang everyone in the seat on their mobile phone and if you answered and didn’t hang up when you heard ‘ScoMo’s’ voice, then you were included! 😆

  23. Here’s just the latest in Vietnam’s torture of democracy activists. I wonder Barney, do you ever ride past any prisons? Do you hear the screams?

    A Vietnamese court has jailed two activists on charges of publishing damaging anti-state propaganda about the communist-run country, state media reported Saturday, the latest convictions under a hardline leadership intolerant of dissent.

    The women, Vu Thi Dung and Nguyen Thi Ngoc Suong, were sentenced Friday to six and five years respectively for posting videos and articles on Facebook against proposed special economic zones and a beefed up cybersecurity law, the People’s Police newspaper reported.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/vietnam-jails-two-activists-for-spreading-propaganda-on-facebook

  24. Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #1023 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 7:32 pm

    nath says:

    ____________________________________
    Barney, you are not even voting here. Why don’t you concern yourself with Vietnamese elections? Oh wait… you are a supporter and apologist of the Vietnamese one party state dictatorship. I hope you are enjoying your trip in a nation where democracy activists are imprisoned and killed. Happy travels.

    Typical, pathetic ignorance!

    I think he’s getting desperate for someone to bite tonight. 🙂

  25. NE Qld @ #1022 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 7:30 pm

    Second uComms robopoll in two days. Do you think they counted me twice? In Herbert. Question on whether or when I am voting and two on the issues that matter to me most. Plus voting intention.

    Same for me in Robertson. Two Ucomms polls in 2 days. They wre different to each other though. It seems as though they had refined their issues of most importance down from about a dozen to five.

  26. C@tmomma @ #184 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 5:35 pm

    Confessions @ #1012 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 7:24 pm

    C@t:

    Out of curiosity, how did you wrangle an invite to that group chat?

    I wasn’t the only one from our team it seems. Looks like they just rang everyone in the seat on their mobile phone and if you answered and didn’t hang up when you heard ‘ScoMo’s’ voice, then you were included! 😆

    So it was a robocall rather than a group chat strategy meeting?

  27. Growler – the Senate vote for minor parties is not affected that much by HTVs at booths now that party names on are ballot. ON didn’t have people at heaps of booths in 2016 in SA at least. Still got 3% of first preferences in Senate.

  28. Leigh for Sale… unseemly spat between our leaders on … religious..
    Comment without any backup or justification

    Non so dumb as Leigh to trivialise politics.

  29. I was impatient this time and just selected climate change when I heard it at number 3. Will let it play through next time.

  30. Sgi says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 7:40 pm

    If nath thinks Bill is the wrong leader, who does he think the right one is?
    _____________________
    Albo, Tanya or Dreyfus would have all been far better.

  31. The age distribution in the electorate of Sydney may well be due to a large population of uni students, it sounds reasonable. But it raises the question of how the AEC treats itinerant populations, which uni students must surely be. (Don’t they “go home for the holidays”?) How does the AEC decide on the electorate’s boundary? How many voters are enrolled in Sydney? How does it fluctuate from month to month? etc.

    Idle questions. 🙂

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